Rivco Australia Ltd (RIV) fair value: what the stock is really worth
As of Nov 9, 2026: fair value (intrinsic value) of Rivco Australia Ltd stock A$2.52, price A$1.23, upside +104.9%, quality 49 out of 100. Rating: strongly undervalued. Calculated from audited financials with 13 of our 26 valuation models and 37 quality factors, updated daily.
69 individual criteria per stock, every one traceableSee the method →
Price vs Fair Value
White line = price, green steps = our fair value per fiscal year. As of Nov 8, 2026.
How to read this chart
60‑month range A$1.09 – A$1.54 · fair‑value band A$1.89 – A$3.15 · the A$1.23 price screens below the A$2.52 fair value. Green steps = our fair value per fiscal year (point-in-time, no hindsight). As of Nov 8, 2026.
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Rivco Australia Ltd provides water supply solutions to Australian irrigators and farmers. The company operates through the Permanent Water and Temporary Water segments. It acquires and manages a portfolio of water entitlements; and offers temporary water allocations.
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The company was formerly known as Duxton Water Limited and changed its name to Rivco Australia Ltd in October 2025. The company was incorporated in 2016 and is based in Unley, Australia.
Stock analysis
Rivco Australia Ltd (RIV) currently trades at A$1.23, while our model-based Fair Value estimate is A$2.52, implying the stock looks roughly 51% undervalued today.
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Valuation
Bull case: the Growth Earnings group reads highest at a median of A$6.12 per share, and 8 of the 13 models we run sit above the A$1.23 price.
Bear case: the Dividend Discount group reads lowest at A$0.7400, and 5 of the 13 models stay below the price. Data coverage for this calculation is low.
Scenario range: A$1.89 (bear) to A$3.15 (bull), the price of A$1.23 sits below it. Bear and bull are the same models on cautious and optimistic assumptions, a range, not a price target.
Quality & growth
The Quality Score stands at 49/100 (below-average quality), in the Utilities sector.
Expensive Growth: The company is growing, but growth may require heavy reinvestment or weak cash conversion.
Rivco Australia Ltd reported revenue of A$52.1M in FY2025 versus A$20.0M in FY2022, a compound +37.6%/yr. Reported net income was A$21.9M in FY2025, compounding +29.8%/yr from FY2022.
Key figures
Market cap A$195M (≈ $135M) Micro · P/S ratio 13.2 · Dividend yield 4.5% · Net margin 42.0% · Return on equity −0.3% · Return on assets (EBIT) 7.9% (4-year average) · Operating margin 70.7% · Revenue growth (YoY) −86.6%.
Competitive moat
Our AI-assisted moat analysis scores the competitive advantage at 49 out of 100 (low confidence).
What moves the price
The share trades about 20% below its 52-week high and 5% above its 52-week low, currently below its 200-day average.
For context, the median of 10 Utilities peers we cover trades at −43% fair-value upside, at 105%, RIV screens cheaper than that median.
Fair Value models
BearA$1.89Fair Value A$2.52BullA$3.15
Price A$1.23 · Upside +104.9%
Model ⓘEach model values the company its own way (discounted cash flow, earnings, assets, dividends). The fair value above starts from their evidence-weighted blend, not from a single model. In cyclical trough or peak years, after dilution or a stock split it is adjusted afterwards, so it can sit above or below the models.Bear ⓘBear = the cautious scenario: the same model computed with conservative anchors (lower growth, margins and valuation multiples). Together with Bull it frames a plausible valuation range, not a price target.BaseBull ⓘBull = the optimistic scenario: the same model computed with favourable anchors (higher growth, margins and valuation multiples). Together with Bear it frames a plausible valuation range, not a price target. If a model's bull case is above four times its base value, the table shows that limit with a > sign (like the overall Bull above): beyond it no assumption holds.Coverage ⓘCoverage = how well-backed THIS model's estimate is for this stock (0–100): how complete and reliable its input data are, and how well the model fits the company. The final Fair Value is an evidence-weighted blend, so better-evidenced models count more. Green ≥70, amber 50–69, grey below 50.
Growth Quality ⓘGrowth is valuable only when reinvestment earns attractive returns (Aswath Damodaran): sustainable growth depends on return on capital, reinvestment and efficiency. Basis: total company revenue over the periods shown on the cards (3Y/5Y/all years), not per share, so a merger can show up as a growth jump; per-share earnings growth is in the value-creation card.52/100
The company is growing, but growth may require heavy reinvestment or weak cash conversion.
Revenue growth 1 year
+108.5%
Revenue growth 3 years ⓘMeasures the company's TOTAL revenue from reported annual statements: compound average growth per year (CAGR) from the fiscal year 3, 5 or N years back to the most recent comparable fiscal year. Not per share: buybacks do not change this number, and a merger can appear as a growth jump. Per-share growth (which does include buybacks) is in the value-creation card.
+37.6%
’22
’23
’24
’25
What shareholders gained per year (last 3 years) (mathematically smoothed) ⓘWhat the business itself delivers per year: earnings growth per share plus the dividend yield. This is what you get IF the market keeps valuing the stock the same way: it contains no assumption about the market changing its mind. Computed per share, so buybacks count and a merger does not pass as growth. For a company that pays no dividend it is pure earnings growth per share. Period: earnings growth per share as CAGR over the last 3 reported fiscal years (annual statements), plus the current dividend yield. The start value is the median of the three years around the start, so a single crisis year (a pandemic or a write-down) does not distort the rate. Smoothed = median of all growth paths between the years of the window (trend line on the logarithm of earnings per share): a single extreme year cannot distort the rate. The reported figure stays in the tooltip.
+34.9%
Earnings growth per share plus dividend.
Earnings per share, growth per year+30.4%
Dividend (yield on the price)4.5%
Profit margin 2022 to 2025 ⓘOperating margin then vs now, from reported annual statements. A falling margin after a boom year is the classic peak-earnings signal: the growth rate then leans on an inflated base.66% → 70%
2025 sits 131% above its own trend. The rate follows the median trend of the last 3 years, not that single year.
Price, fair value, quality and upside side by side.
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Peer GroupⓘHow this stock ranks against its industry: the green marker is this stock, the band is the typical 25–75% peer range, and the tick is the median.Utilities - Regulated Water · 64 stocks
Beats the industry median on 8/11 measures
Overall it ranks above its industry peers.
Valuation
Quality Score49 · Above median
Fair Value upside+104.9% · Top 25%
Profitability
Return on assets9.3% · Top 25%
Net margin (12 months)−3.5% · Bottom 25%
Operating margin (12 months)70.7% · Top 25%
Growth and dividend
Revenue growth (quarter YoY)−86.6% · Bottom 25%
Dividend yield (12 months)4.5% · Top 25%
Balance sheet
Debt / equity0.11× · Lowest 25%
Valuation Multiplesvs Utilities - Regulated Water median · lower = cheaper
P/E (12 months)8.9× · Cheapest 25%
P/B0.93× · book value is mostly goodwill ⓘGoodwill and other intangible assets are larger than the equity. The book value mainly reflects prices paid for past acquisitions, so we do not rank this P/B against the peer group.
For bloggers, editors and developers: paste this into your site or blog (a “Custom HTML” block in WordPress), it shows the current fair value and links back here. Free, plain HTML, and welcome. Full data streams (CSV/JSON) at /developers.
Cite: Fair Value Calculator (2026). "Rivco Australia Ltd Fair Value". https://www.fairvalue-calculator.com/stock/RIV
Frequently asked questions
Is Rivco Australia Ltd (RIV) overvalued or undervalued?
As of Nov 8, 2026, our model estimates a fair value of A$2.52 versus a price of A$1.23, about +105% upside (undervalued).
What is the fair value of RIV?
Our model-based fair value for Rivco Australia Ltd is A$2.52 (as of Nov 8, 2026), built from audited fundamentals. The current price: A$1.23.
What is the quality score of RIV?
Rivco Australia Ltd has a Quality Score of 49/100. It measures business quality (profitability, growth, cash flow, balance-sheet strength, investment discipline, share issuance). Market factors such as price momentum and volatility do not enter the number; they are shown separately in the detail view.
What is the price target for Rivco Australia Ltd (RIV)?
Our model-based price target is the fair value of A$2.52 (as of Nov 8, 2026) from 13 valuation models. Cautious scenario A$1.89, optimistic scenario A$3.15. It is a calculation from audited fundamentals, not an analyst target.
What is the Rivco Australia Ltd stock forecast for 2026?
Our models put fair value at A$2.52, about +105% upside versus a price of A$1.23 (undervalued). Cautious scenario A$1.89, optimistic scenario A$3.15. The calculation is refreshed regularly with new filings.
Does Rivco Australia Ltd pay a dividend?
Rivco Australia Ltd currently shows a dividend yield of 4.47% relative to its recent price (as of Nov 8, 2026).
How much is the dividend of Rivco Australia Ltd (RIV) and when is the ex-dividend date?
Rivco Australia Ltd pays a dividend of A$0.055 per share a year, a dividend yield of 4.5%. The last ex-dividend date was Oct 15, 2026. A dividend has been paid every year since at least 2017. The payout ratio is 39.3% of earnings. Our assessment: Watch coverage. The dividend isn’t fully covered by free cash flow or earnings, part of it is funded from reserves or debt. Fine for now, but worth watching: if it stays uncovered, the dividend could be cut.
What is the intrinsic value of Rivco Australia Ltd (RIV)?
Intrinsic value and fair value mean the same thing: what the business is worth on its numbers, independent of the share price. For Rivco Australia Ltd it is A$2.52 per share (as of Nov 8, 2026), against a price of A$1.23. It is the blended result of 13 valuation models in 5 families (Earnings-Based, Dividend Discount, Multiples, Economic Profit, Growth Earnings).
Is Rivco Australia Ltd stock overvalued or undervalued in 2026?
As of Nov 8, 2026, RIV trades below its calculated fair value: price A$1.23, fair value A$2.52, a gap of about +105% (undervalued). The calculation is refreshed with each new quarterly report, so the verdict can change during the year.
Is fair value the same as the market price of RIV?
No. The price is what the market pays today (A$1.23); the fair value is what the company's own numbers justify (A$2.52). For Rivco Australia Ltd the two are A$1.29 per share apart. That gap is exactly why we show both numbers side by side.
How much is Rivco Australia Ltd worth?
The market values Rivco Australia Ltd at about A$195M (market capitalisation, as of Nov 8, 2026). Per share that is A$1.23; our models calculate a fair value of A$2.52 per share.
What do the bullish and bearish scenarios say about RIV?
Our models span a range for Rivco Australia Ltd: cautious scenario A$1.89, base A$2.52, optimistic A$3.15 per share (as of Nov 8, 2026, price A$1.23). The range comes from different growth and margin assumptions, not from analyst opinions.
What is the P/E ratio of RIV?
Rivco Australia Ltd trades at a price-to-earnings ratio of 8.9 (as of Nov 8, 2026). A P/E on its own says little: it compares the price with ONE year of profit, while our fair value of A$2.52 is built from several models across several years. Other multiples: P/B 0.9, P/S 13.3, EV/EBITDA 6.1.
How solid is the balance sheet of Rivco Australia Ltd (RIV)?
Balance-sheet figures for Rivco Australia Ltd (as of Nov 8, 2026): return on equity −0.3%, debt of 0.11 per unit of equity. They feed the Quality Score of 49/100, which measures business quality independently of the share price.
How far is RIV from its 52-week high?
Rivco Australia Ltd trades at A$1.23, about 20% below its 52-week high of A$1.54 and 5% above the low of A$1.17 (as of Nov 9, 2026). Distance from the high says nothing about value: that is what the fair value of A$2.52 is for.
Which stocks are comparable to Rivco Australia Ltd?
From the same area (Utilities) we also value American Water Works Company, Essential Utilities, Inc, Grandblue Environment Co, American States Water Company, among others. Each of them has its own fair-value calculation on this site using the same models, so the comparison is like for like.
Is Rivco Australia Ltd stock attractive at the current price?
The data as of Nov 8, 2026: price A$1.23, calculated fair value A$2.52 (+105%), Quality Score 49/100, from 13 models. Whether that fits your horizon and risk tolerance is your call. We provide the calculation, not investment advice.
How is the fair value of RIV calculated?
We run Rivco Australia Ltd through 13 models from 5 families: Earnings-Based, Dividend Discount, Multiples, Economic Profit, Growth Earnings. Every model gets the same audited fundamentals; the fair value of A$2.52 builds on their evidence-weighted average, with the spread shown as a cautious and an optimistic scenario.
Is it still worth investing in stocks now?
The global stock market currently sits 13.3% above its aggregate fair value. Rivco Australia Ltd currently trades 51% below its own fair value, and the market average says nothing about that. An expensive market is no reason to stay out and no reason to buy everything at once: keep a broad savings plan running, buy single stocks only with money you can do without, and hold part of your money liquid while the market is high. The full picture including sectors is on is it worth investing now.
What is the share price of Rivco Australia Ltd (RIV)?
The closing price on Nov 9, 2026 was A$1.23. Our model-based fair value is A$2.52, about +105% upside (undervalued). We carry closing prices from our data provider, not a live tick.
What should I pay attention to with Rivco Australia Ltd right now?
The large discount to fair value meets weak quality (49/100). That raises the risk this is a value trap rather than a bargain. The price is below even our cautious bear case (A$1.89). The market is more pessimistic than our downside scenario. The large gap to fair value rests on thin data (low evidence): fewer applicable models and a shorter history. Read it with extra caution.
Key figures of Rivco Australia Ltd
How large is the market capitalisation of Rivco Australia Ltd (RIV)?
The market capitalisation of Rivco Australia Ltd is A$195M (≈ $135M). The stock-market value of the whole company: share price times number of shares. It is what the market asks for the entire business today.
What is the P/S ratio of Rivco Australia Ltd (RIV)?
The price-to-sales ratio of Rivco Australia Ltd is 13.2 (last twelve months). Price to sales: market value relative to yearly revenue. Useful when profit is thin or distorted.
What is the dividend yield of Rivco Australia Ltd (RIV)?
The dividend yield of Rivco Australia Ltd is 4.5%. Yearly dividend relative to the share price. 3% pays 3 per 100 invested. Below: how much of profit is used for it.
What is the net margin of Rivco Australia Ltd (RIV)?
The net margin of Rivco Australia Ltd is 42.0% (fiscal year 2025). How much of every unit of revenue ends up as profit. 10% means 10 cents of profit per dollar of sales.
What is the return on equity of Rivco Australia Ltd (RIV)?
The return on equity (ROE) of Rivco Australia Ltd is −0.3% (last twelve months). Profit relative to shareholders' equity, how efficiently the company works with its owners' money.
What is the EBIT return on assets of Rivco Australia Ltd (RIV)?
On an EBIT basis the return on assets of Rivco Australia Ltd is 7.9% (avg 4y). Operating profit (EBIT) relative to everything the company owns, as a multi-year average. It describes the business model rather than one good or bad year.
What is the operating margin of Rivco Australia Ltd (RIV)?
The operating margin of Rivco Australia Ltd is 70.7% (last twelve months). Profit from the core business (before interest and taxes) relative to revenue.
How fast is revenue growing at Rivco Australia Ltd (RIV)?
Revenue at Rivco Australia Ltd is growing −86.6% versus a year earlier (3y avg +37.6%). How much revenue grew versus a year earlier (YoY). The 3-year average next to it puts the single year in context.
How fast are earnings growing at Rivco Australia Ltd (RIV)?
Earnings per share at Rivco Australia Ltd are growing −91.4% versus a year earlier. How much earnings per share grew versus a year earlier.
How much free cash flow does Rivco Australia Ltd (RIV) generate?
The free cash flow of Rivco Australia Ltd is −A$35.5M (fiscal year 2025). The cash truly left after running and investing in the business, this is what pays dividends and buybacks.
How much net debt does Rivco Australia Ltd (RIV) carry?
The net debt of Rivco Australia Ltd is A$20.0M (fiscal year 2025). Debt minus cash on hand. The note shows how many years of free cash flow could in theory pay it off.
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Thin data
Nov 8, 2026