Serco Group plc (SECCF) fair value: what the stock is really worth
As of Aug 28, 2026: fair value of Serco Group plc $4.23, price $3.19, upside +32.8%, quality 72 out of 100. Calculated from audited financials with 26 valuation models and 37 quality factors, updated daily.
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Price vs Fair Value
White line = price, green steps = our fair value per fiscal year, dashed = 300-day average. As of Sep 24, 2026.
How to read this chart
60‑month range $0.9836 – $4.32 · fair‑value band $3.12 – $6.07 · the $3.19 price screens below the $4.23 fair value. Green steps = our fair value per fiscal year (point-in-time, no hindsight). Dashed = 300-day average. As of Sep 24, 2026.
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Serco Group plc provides public services in the United Kingdom, Europe, North America, the Asia Pacific, and the Middle East. It offers service design and advisory, resourcing, programme management, systems integration, case management, engineering, and assets and facilities management services.
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Serco Group plc provides public services in the United Kingdom, Europe, North America, the Asia Pacific, and the Middle East. It offers service design and advisory, resourcing, programme management, systems integration, case management, engineering, and assets and facilities management services. The company also provides administrative and back office, asylum seeker accommodation or passenger transport services; and supports in the decarbonization journeys of customers. It serves the United Kingdom and Canadian governments, devolved authorities, and other public sector customers; and federal and civilian agencies, and various state and municipal governments in citizen services, defense, health and other facilities management, justice and immigration, and transport sectors. Serco Group plc was founded in 1929 and is based in Hook, the United Kingdom.
Stock analysis
Serco Group plc (SECCF) currently trades at $3.19, while our model-based Fair Value estimate is $4.23, implying the stock looks roughly 24.7% undervalued today.
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Valuation
Bull case: the DCF Models group reads highest at a median of $5.73 per share, and 14 of the 26 models we run sit above the $3.19 price.
Bear case: the Asset-Based group reads lowest at $0.6000, and 12 of the 26 models stay below the price. Evidence for this calculation is high.
Scenario range: $3.12 (bear) to $6.07 (bull), the price of $3.19 sits inside it. Bear and bull are the same models on cautious and optimistic assumptions, a range, not a price target.
Quality & growth
The Quality Score stands at 72/100 (solid quality), in the Industrials sector.
Healthy Growth: Revenue growth appears healthy and is supported by profitability and cash-flow quality.
Serco Group plc reported revenue of £5.0B in FY2025 versus £4.4B in FY2021, a compound +2.9%/yr. Reported net income was £146M in FY2025, compounding −16.8%/yr from FY2021.
Key figures
Market cap $3.3B · P/E ratio 16.8 · P/S ratio 0.49 · EPS (TTM) $0.1900 · Dividend yield 1.4% · Net margin 2.9% · Return on equity 17.0% · Return on assets (EBIT) 8.3%.
Competitive moat
Our AI-assisted moat analysis scores the competitive advantage at 42 out of 100 (low confidence).
What moves the price
The share trades about 26% below its 52-week high and 9% above its 52-week low, currently above its 200-day average.
For context, the median of 10 Industrials peers we cover trades at 0% fair-value upside, at 33%, SECCF screens cheaper than that median.
Fair Value models
Bear $3.12Fair Value $4.23Bull $6.07
Model ⓘEach model values the company its own way (discounted cash flow, earnings, assets, dividends). The fair value above is their evidence-weighted blend, not the output of a single model. Based on fiscal year 2025 figures (about 9 months old). Earnings retained since then ($0.1065 per share) are deliberately not added.Bear ⓘBear = the cautious scenario: the same model computed with conservative anchors (lower growth, margins and valuation multiples). Together with Bull it frames a plausible valuation range, not a price target.BaseBull ⓘBull = the optimistic scenario: the same model computed with favourable anchors (higher growth, margins and valuation multiples). Together with Bear it frames a plausible valuation range, not a price target.Evidence ⓘEvidence = how well-backed THIS model's estimate is for this stock (0–100): how complete and reliable its input data are, and how well the model fits the company. The final Fair Value is an evidence-weighted blend, so better-evidenced models count more. Green ≥70, amber 50–69, grey below 50.
Growth Quality ⓘGrowth is valuable only when reinvestment earns attractive returns (Aswath Damodaran): sustainable growth depends on return on capital, reinvestment and efficiency. Basis: total company revenue over the periods shown on the cards (3Y/5Y/all years), not per share, so a merger can show up as a growth jump; per-share earnings growth is in the value-creation card.74/100
Revenue growth appears healthy and is supported by profitability and cash-flow quality.
Revenue growth 1 year
+3.5%
Revenue growth 3 years ⓘMeasures the company's TOTAL revenue from reported annual statements: compound average growth per year (CAGR) from the fiscal year 3, 5 or N years back to the most recent comparable fiscal year. Not per share: buybacks do not change this number, and a merger can appear as a growth jump. Per-share growth (which does include buybacks) is in the value-creation card.
+3.0%
Revenue growth 5 years ⓘMeasures the company's TOTAL revenue from reported annual statements: compound average growth per year (CAGR) from the fiscal year 3, 5 or N years back to the most recent comparable fiscal year. Not per share: buybacks do not change this number, and a merger can appear as a growth jump. Per-share growth (which does include buybacks) is in the value-creation card.
+5.0%
Start year 2020 (pandemic). Over 10 years: +4.5% a year
Revenue growth 40 years ⓘMeasures the company's TOTAL revenue from reported annual statements: compound average growth per year (CAGR) from the fiscal year 3, 5 or N years back to the most recent comparable fiscal year. Not per share: buybacks do not change this number, and a merger can appear as a growth jump. Per-share growth (which does include buybacks) is in the value-creation card.
+14.1%
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What shareholders gained per year (last 5 years) ⓘWhat the business itself delivers per year: earnings growth per share plus the dividend yield. This is what you get IF the market keeps valuing the stock the same way: it contains no assumption about the market changing its mind. Computed per share, so buybacks count and a merger does not pass as growth. For a company that pays no dividend it is pure earnings growth per share. Period: earnings growth per share as CAGR over the last 5 reported fiscal years (annual statements), plus the current dividend yield. The start value is the median of the three years around the start, so a single crisis year (a pandemic or a write-down) does not distort the rate.
+7.1%
Earnings growth per share plus dividend.
Earnings per share, growth per year+5.7%
Dividend (yield on the price)1.4%
Profit margin 2020 to 2025 ⓘOperating margin then vs now, from reported annual statements. A falling margin after a boom year is the classic peak-earnings signal: the growth rate then leans on an inflated base.5% → 6%
⚠ Revenue per share shrinking 2.1%/yr over ~10Y (margins intact) ⓘStructural-decline marker: revenue PER SHARE has fallen over the last decade (robust median trend, not a single year). Backtested across 2005 to 2017, such businesses trailed the market by about 2.5 percentage points per year. Display only: it does not change the fair value or the quality score.
Growth Forecast
Little optimism in the price
The price assumes less growth than the company has delivered so far and less than analysts expect.
What the price assumes ⓘThis turns our valuation around: instead of asking what the share is worth, it asks what growth the current price requires. It uses the cash the company keeps after all spending (free cash flow), the same discount rate as our models, five years of growth, then slowing evenly to 2 % a year by year ten. Compared with the analysts' sales forecasts extended to the same five years (at least three analysts, for context only, it does not enter the Fair Value): within 3 percentage points counts as "in line" (amber), below that little optimism (green), above that a lot of optimism (red).
−12.9%
Yearly growth needed for the next five years to justify today's price.
What forecasts expect ⓘAnalysts publish sales forecasts for the next two fiscal years. For the years after that, growth slows evenly to 2 % a year by year ten (2 % is the long-run rate our models use). Projected years are marked as such.
+3.3%
Yearly sales growth analysts expect, extended to five years.
After inflation (figures in GBP, UK: IMF forecast 2.3% a year to 2030, 3.3% from 2016 to 2025) that is about −14.8% a year for the price and +0.9% for the forecasts.
Price, fair value, quality and upside side by side.
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Peer GroupⓘHow this stock ranks against its industry: the green marker is this stock, the band is the typical 25–75% peer range, and the tick is the median.Specialty Business Services · 249 stocks
Beats the industry median on 6/13 measures
A mixed picture versus its industry peers.
Valuation
Quality Score72 · Top 25%
Fair Value upside+33% · Above median
Profitability
Return on equity (TTM)17% · Top 25%
Return on assets5% · Above median
Net margin (TTM)3% · Below median
Operating margin (TTM)4% · Below median
Growth and dividend
Revenue growth1% · Below median
Dividend yield (TTM)1.4% · Below median
Balance sheet
Debt / equity0.46× · Above median
Valuation Multiplesvs Specialty Business Services median · lower = cheaper
P/E (TTM)16.8× · Cheaper than median
P/B3.77× · book value is mostly goodwill ⓘGoodwill and other intangible assets are larger than the equity. The book value mainly reflects prices paid for past acquisitions, so we do not rank this P/B against the peer group.
For bloggers, editors and developers: paste this into your site or blog (a “Custom HTML” block in WordPress), it shows the current fair value and links back here. Free, plain HTML, and welcome. Full data streams (CSV/JSON) at /developers.
Cite: Fair Value Calculator (2026). "Serco Group plc Fair Value". https://www.fairvalue-calculator.com/stock/SECCF
Frequently asked questions
Is Serco Group plc (SECCF) overvalued or undervalued?
As of Sep 24, 2026, our model estimates a fair value of $4.23 versus the last price from Aug 28, 2026 of $3.19, about +33% upside (undervalued).
What is the fair value of SECCF?
Our model-based fair value for Serco Group plc is $4.23 (as of Sep 24, 2026), built from audited fundamentals. Last price (from Aug 28, 2026): $3.19.
What is the quality score of SECCF?
Serco Group plc has a Quality Score of 72/100. It measures business quality (profitability, growth, cash flow, balance-sheet strength, investment discipline, share issuance). Market factors such as price momentum and volatility do not enter the number; they are shown separately in the detail view.
What is the price target for Serco Group plc (SECCF)?
Our model-based price target is the fair value of $4.23 (as of Sep 24, 2026) from 26 valuation models. Cautious scenario $3.12, optimistic scenario $6.07. It is a calculation from audited fundamentals, not an analyst target.
What is the Serco Group plc stock forecast for 2026?
Our models put fair value at $4.23, about +33% upside versus the last price from Aug 28, 2026 of $3.19 (undervalued). Cautious scenario $3.12, optimistic scenario $6.07. The calculation is refreshed regularly with new filings.
What is the revenue of Serco Group plc (SECCF)?
Serco Group plc reported trailing-twelve-month revenue of about £4.9B (latest available figure, as of Sep 24, 2026).
Does Serco Group plc pay a dividend?
Serco Group plc currently shows a dividend yield of about 1.41% relative to its recent price (as of Sep 24, 2026).
What growth is priced into Serco Group plc (SECCF)?
For today's price to be fair in a discounted-cash-flow model, Serco Group plc would have to grow free cash flow by -12.9 % per year for five years (discount rate 8.5 %, then slowing evenly to 2 % perpetual growth by year ten). Over the last 5 years revenue grew +5.0 % per year. As of Sep 24, 2026.
What discount rate (WACC) does the fair value of SECCF use?
Our models discount Serco Group plc at 8.5 %: a base by market capitalisation (mid), damped by beta 0.49, country premium for USA. The same rate applies in all 26 models.
What is a reverse DCF?
A reverse DCF turns the usual calculation around. Instead of deriving a value from assumptions, it takes today's price as given and asks: what free-cash-flow growth would a company have to deliver for exactly this price to be fair? The result is not a forecast but the expectation already priced in. For Serco Group plc that is -12.9 % per year a year over ten years, using the same discount rate (8.5 %) and the same formula as our fair value.
How much growth has Serco Group plc (SECCF) delivered so far?
Over the past 5 years revenue at Serco Group plc grew +5.0 % a year. The price currently implies -12.9 % per year free-cash-flow growth a year. Comparing the two shows how much confidence is in the price: if it demands more than has been delivered, the business has to accelerate for the maths to work.
How fast is the sector of Serco Group plc (SECCF) growing?
The median revenue growth in the sector is +4.6 % a year. That is the yardstick for the growth priced into Serco Group plc (-12.9 % per year a year): it shows whether the expectation is within the usual range or beyond it.
What is the free cash flow yield of Serco Group plc (SECCF)?
The free-cash-flow yield on the price is 16.30 %: that much free cash flow Serco Group plc produces per unit of market value. When it exceeds the discount rate of our models (8.5 %), the business already earns more than its cost of capital demands, and the price needs little additional growth.
What is the intrinsic value of Serco Group plc (SECCF)?
Intrinsic value and fair value mean the same thing: what the business is worth on its numbers, independent of the share price. For Serco Group plc it is $4.23 per share (as of Sep 24, 2026), against a price of $3.19. It is the blended result of 26 valuation models (cash flow, earnings, asset, dividend).
Is Serco Group plc stock overvalued or undervalued in 2026?
As of Sep 24, 2026, SECCF trades below its calculated fair value: price $3.19, fair value $4.23, a gap of about +33% (undervalued). The calculation is refreshed with each new quarterly report, so the verdict can change during the year.
Is fair value the same as the market price of SECCF?
No. The price is what the market pays today ($3.19); the fair value is what the company's own numbers justify ($4.23). For Serco Group plc the two are $1.05 per share apart. That gap is exactly why we show both numbers side by side.
How much is Serco Group plc worth?
The market values Serco Group plc at about $3.3B (market capitalisation, as of Sep 24, 2026). Per share that is $3.19; our models calculate a fair value of $4.23 per share.
What do the bullish and bearish scenarios say about SECCF?
Our models span a range for Serco Group plc: cautious scenario $3.12, base $4.23, optimistic $6.07 per share (as of Sep 24, 2026, price $3.19). The range comes from different growth and margin assumptions, not from analyst opinions.
What is the P/E ratio of SECCF?
Serco Group plc trades at a price-to-earnings ratio of 16.8 (as of Sep 24, 2026). A P/E on its own says little: it compares the price with ONE year of profit, while our fair value of $4.23 is built from several models across several years. Other multiples: P/B 3.8, P/S 0.7, EV/EBITDA 13.4.
How solid is the balance sheet of Serco Group plc (SECCF)?
Balance-sheet figures for Serco Group plc (as of Sep 24, 2026): return on equity 17.0%, debt of 0.46 per unit of equity. They feed the Quality Score of 72/100, which measures business quality independently of the share price.
How far is SECCF from its 52-week high?
Serco Group plc trades at $3.19, about 26% below its 52-week high of $4.32 and 9% above the low of $2.91 (as of Aug 28, 2026). Distance from the high says nothing about value: that is what the fair value of $4.23 is for.
Which stocks are comparable to Serco Group plc?
From the same area (Industrials) we also value Cintas Corporation, Thomson Reuters Corporation, Copart, Inc, Global Payments Inc, among others. Each of them has its own fair-value calculation on this site using the same models, so the comparison is like for like.
Is Serco Group plc stock attractive at the current price?
The data as of Sep 24, 2026: price $3.19, calculated fair value $4.23 (+33%), Quality Score 72/100, from 26 models. Whether that fits your horizon and risk tolerance is your call. We provide the calculation, not investment advice.
How is the fair value of SECCF calculated?
We run Serco Group plc through 26 models from four families: discounted cash flow, earnings models, asset and balance-sheet models, and dividend models. Every model gets the same audited fundamentals; the result is the weighted average of $4.23, with the spread shown as a cautious and an optimistic scenario.
Is it still worth investing in stocks now?
The global stock market currently sits 13.0 % above its aggregate fair value. Serco Group plc currently trades 33 % below its own fair value, and the market average says nothing about that. An expensive market is no reason to stay out and no reason to buy everything at once: keep a broad savings plan running, buy single stocks only with money you can do without, and hold part of your money liquid while the market is high. The full picture including sectors is on is it worth investing now.
What is the share price of Serco Group plc (SECCF)?
The latest price we hold is from Aug 28, 2026 and stands at $3.19. Our model-based fair value is $4.23, about +33% upside (undervalued). We carry closing prices from our data provider, not a live tick.
What should I pay attention to with Serco Group plc right now?
The rarer combination: high quality (72/100) AND below fair value. That earns a closer look rather than a quick verdict. A fairly wide model range ($3.12 to $6.07) leaves room in how you read the outcome.
Key figures of Serco Group plc
How large is the market capitalisation of Serco Group plc (SECCF)?
The market capitalisation of Serco Group plc is $3.3B. The stock-market value of the whole company: share price times number of shares. It is what the market asks for the entire business today.
What is the P/S ratio of Serco Group plc (SECCF)?
The price-to-sales ratio of Serco Group plc is 0.49 (P/E × margin). Price to sales: market value relative to yearly revenue. Useful when profit is thin or distorted.
What are the earnings per share of Serco Group plc (SECCF)?
Earnings per share at Serco Group plc are $0.1900 (price ÷ EPS = P/E 16.8). Earnings per share over the last twelve months: total profit spread across every single share.
What is the dividend yield of Serco Group plc (SECCF)?
The dividend yield of Serco Group plc is 1.4% (payout 23.7%). Yearly dividend relative to the share price. 3% pays 3 per 100 invested. Below: how much of profit is used for it.
What is the net margin of Serco Group plc (SECCF)?
The net margin of Serco Group plc is 2.9% (fiscal year 2025). How much of every unit of revenue ends up as profit. 10% means 10 cents of profit per dollar of sales.
What is the return on equity of Serco Group plc (SECCF)?
The return on equity (ROE) of Serco Group plc is 17.0% (last twelve months). Profit relative to shareholders' equity, how efficiently the company works with its owners' money.
What is the EBIT return on assets of Serco Group plc (SECCF)?
On an EBIT basis the return on assets of Serco Group plc is 8.3% (avg 5y). Operating profit (EBIT) relative to everything the company owns, as a multi-year average. It describes the business model rather than one good or bad year.
What is the operating margin of Serco Group plc (SECCF)?
The operating margin of Serco Group plc is 3.8% (last twelve months). Profit from the core business (before interest and taxes) relative to revenue.
How fast is revenue growing at Serco Group plc (SECCF)?
Revenue at Serco Group plc is growing +1.2% versus a year earlier (3y avg +3.0%). How much revenue grew versus a year earlier (YoY). The 3-year average next to it puts the single year in context.
How fast are earnings growing at Serco Group plc (SECCF)?
Earnings per share at Serco Group plc are growing +12.0% versus a year earlier. How much earnings per share grew versus a year earlier.
How much net debt does Serco Group plc (SECCF) carry?
The net debt of Serco Group plc is £710M (fiscal year 2025, ≈ 1.8 yrs of FCF). Debt minus cash on hand. The note shows how many years of free cash flow could in theory pay it off.
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Broad data
Sep 24, 2026