Serco Group (SECCF) Fair Value & Analysis
Industrials · US · Market cap $3.2B
Serco Group
SECCF · US
Fair value as of: Jul 21, 2026
From 26 valuation models · updated 20 days ago
Fair value updated Jul 21, 2026, revised from $4.41 to $4.20 (−4.8%) since Jun 24, 2026. Share price +4.1% over the past month.
A solid business, screening 32% undervalued on our models.
What matters now
- The rarer combination: high quality (72/100) AND below fair value. That earns a closer look rather than a quick verdict.
- Our model range runs from $3.15 (bear) to $5.25 (bull), base $4.20. The closer the price sits to the lower half, the larger the margin of safety.
- Quality 72/100 (solid quality) with high evidence: the data supports the verdict.
Price vs Fair Value (5 years)
White line = price, green steps = our fair value per fiscal year, dashed = 300-day average. As of Jul 21, 2026.
How to read this chart
60‑month range $0.9836 – $4.32 · fair‑value band $3.15 – $5.25 · the $3.19 price screens below the $4.20 fair value. Dashed = 300-day average. As of Jul 21, 2026.
Analysis
Serco Group (SECCF) currently trades at $3.19, while our model-based Fair Value estimate is $4.20, implying the stock looks roughly 31.9% undervalued today. The Quality Score stands at 72/100 (solid quality), in the Industrials sector. Bull case: trading below our estimate, it may offer upside if the fundamentals hold. Bear case: a low price can be a value trap when quality is weak or the data is thin (evidence: high), always confirm before acting.
Over the trailing twelve months, Serco Group generated revenue of $4.9B at a net margin of 3.0%. Revenue grew 1.2% year over year. It earns a return on equity of 17.0%. Net debt stands at $710M. Fundamentals as of Jul 21, 2026
Our scenario range runs from $3.15 (bear case) to $5.25 (bull case); at $3.19, the current price sits within that range. Bear and bull are the same models run on conservative and optimistic assumptions (margins, growth, valuation multiples), so a plausible valuation range, not a price target. The share trades about 27% below its 52-week high and 21% above its 52-week low, currently below its 200-day average. For context, the median of 10 Industrials peers we cover trades at -35% fair-value upside, at 32%, SECCF screens cheaper than that median.
Fair Value models
Each model estimates fair value its own way; the Fair Value above is the evidence-weighted blend. Evidence (0–100) measures how completely this model’s inputs are available: well-fed models carry more weight in the blend. The spread across models is intentional, each one stresses a different value driver; dividend models, for instance, come out structurally low when payout is small.
All 26 models by family
Widest divergence: DCF Models ($5.39) versus Asset-Based ($0.6000). Highest evidence: Growth DCF (80).
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Key figures & financial health
More key figures
Figures from reported company fundamentals · as of Jul 21, 2026. TTM = trailing twelve months.
Quality Score breakdown
Of which business quality 70 · Market factors (momentum, volatility) 59
Non-valuation factor families (profitability, growth, cashflow, financial strength, momentum …), each academically grounded. Valuation itself sits in the Fair Value and is deliberately excluded here to avoid double-counting.
About the company
Serco Group plc provides public services in the United Kingdom, Europe, North America, the Asia Pacific, and the Middle East. It offers service design and advisory, resourcing, programme management, systems integration, case management, engineering, and assets and facilities management services.
Full company description
Serco Group plc provides public services in the United Kingdom, Europe, North America, the Asia Pacific, and the Middle East. It offers service design and advisory, resourcing, programme management, systems integration, case management, engineering, and assets and facilities management services. The company also provides administrative and back office, asylum seeker accommodation or passenger transport services; and supports in the decarbonization journeys of customers. It serves the United Kingdom and Canadian governments, devolved authorities, and other public sector customers; and federal and civilian agencies, and various state and municipal governments in citizen services, defense, health and other facilities management, justice and immigration, and transport sectors. Serco Group plc was founded in 1929 and is based in Hook, the United Kingdom.
Company description, as reported by the company or data provider.
Revenue & earnings trend
FY2021 – FY2025 · reported fiscal years
Serco Group reported revenue of $5.0B in FY2025 versus $4.4B in FY2021, a compound +2.9%/yr. Reported net income was $146M in FY2025, compounding −16.8%/yr from FY2021.
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Peer Group
Specialty Business Services · 253 stocks
How this stock ranks against its industry: the green marker is this stock, the band is the typical 25–75% peer range, and the tick is the median.
Valuation Multiples vs Specialty Business Services median · lower = cheaper
Snowflake
Five quick dimensions, each 0 to 100: VALUE (fair-value potential), FUTURE (revenue growth), PAST (return on equity), HEALTH (low debt), DIVIDEND (yield). Green = this stock, grey = typical sector peer.
Values & ESG
Does this company touch areas you may want to avoid? The classification is inferred from sector and industry.
ESG scores are not available for this stock yet. Values and ESG data are contextual and can differ between providers.
Similar stocks
10 more Specialty Business Services stocks, each showing price versus our Fair Value estimate (as of Jul 21, 2026).
| Stock | Price | Fair Value | vs Fair Value |
|---|---|---|---|
| Cintas Corporation CTAS | $206.25 | $95.30 | -54% |
| RELX PLC RELX | $33.70 | $32.49 | -4% |
| Thomson Reuters Corporation TRI | C$133.87 | C$70.40 | -47% |
| Copart, Inc CPRT | $27.61 | $28.59 | +4% |
| Global Payments Inc GPN | $80.49 | $69.67 | -13% |
| RB Global, Inc RBA | C$156.43 | C$49.14 | -69% |
| Brambles Limited BXB | A$18.79 | A$12.28 | -35% |
| UL Solutions Inc ULS | $87.76 | $33.62 | -62% |
| Wolters Kluwer N.V WKL | €62.56 | €103.99 | +66% |
| Aramark ARMK | $56.74 | $13.73 | -76% |
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Frequently asked questions
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How we calculate Fair Value
Each company is valued through a stack of independent intrinsic-value models (DCF variants, residual-income, multiples and more), blended into one family-balanced consensus and weighted by how much trustworthy data backs it. A separate quality layer scores the fundamentals. Every input is real reported data, nothing guessed.
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