Smithfield Foods, Inc (SFD) Fair Value & Analysis
Consumer Defensive · US · Market cap $9.7B
Smithfield Foods, Inc
SFD · US
Fair value as of: Jul 14, 2026
From 26 valuation models · updated 24 days ago
Fair value updated Jul 14, 2026, revised from $44.67 to $42.93 (−3.9%) since Jun 24, 2026. Share price +0.2% over the past month.
A solid business, screening 71% undervalued on our models.
What matters now
- Solid quality (64/100) at a price below fair value, the discount is the argument here, not the business quality.
- A fairly wide model range ($25.06 to $64.89) leaves room in how you read the outcome.
Price vs Fair Value (18 months)
White line = price, green steps = our fair value per fiscal year, dashed = 300-day average. As of Jul 14, 2026.
How to read this chart
18‑month range $17.38 – $29.22 · fair‑value band $25.06 – $64.89 · the $25.08 price screens below the $42.93 fair value. Green steps = our fair value per fiscal year (point-in-time, no hindsight). Dashed = 300-day average. As of Jul 14, 2026.
Analysis
Smithfield Foods, Inc (SFD) currently trades at $25.08, while our model-based Fair Value estimate is $42.93, implying the stock looks roughly 71.2% undervalued today. We read business quality at 64/100 (solid quality), in the Consumer Defensive sector. Bull case: trading below our estimate, it may offer upside if the fundamentals hold. Bear case: a low price can be a value trap when quality is weak or the data is thin (evidence: high), always confirm before acting.
Over the trailing twelve months, Smithfield Foods, Inc generated revenue of $15.6B at a net margin of 6.5%. Revenue grew 0.8% year over year. It earns a return on equity of 15.0%. Net debt stands at $857M. Fundamentals as of Jul 14, 2026
Our scenario range runs from $25.06 (bear case) to $64.89 (bull case); at $25.08, the current price sits within that range. Bear and bull are the same models run on conservative and optimistic assumptions (margins, growth, valuation multiples), so a plausible valuation range, not a price target. The share trades about 15% below its 52-week high and 23% above its 52-week low, currently above its 200-day average. For context, the median of 10 Consumer Defensive peers we cover trades at -3% fair-value upside, at 71%, SFD screens cheaper than that median.
Fair Value models
Each model estimates fair value its own way; the Fair Value above is the evidence-weighted blend. Evidence (0–100) measures how completely this model’s inputs are available: well-fed models carry more weight in the blend. The spread across models is intentional, each one stresses a different value driver; dividend models, for instance, come out structurally low when payout is small.
All 26 models by family
Widest divergence: Growth Earnings ($46.60) versus Asset-Based ($11.58). Highest evidence: Growth DCF (80).
Key figures & financial health
More key figures
Figures from reported company fundamentals · as of Jul 14, 2026. TTM = trailing twelve months.
Quality Score breakdown
Of which business quality 65 · Market factors (momentum, volatility) 54
Non-valuation factor families (profitability, growth, cashflow, financial strength, momentum …), each academically grounded. Valuation itself sits in the Fair Value and is deliberately excluded here to avoid double-counting.
About the company
Smithfield Foods, Inc., together with its subsidiaries, produces various packaged meats and fresh pork products in the United States and internationally. It operates through Packaged Meats, Fresh Pork, Hog Production, and Other segments.
Full company description
Smithfield Foods, Inc., together with its subsidiaries, produces various packaged meats and fresh pork products in the United States and internationally. It operates through Packaged Meats, Fresh Pork, Hog Production, and Other segments. The Packaged Meats segment processes fresh meat into various packaged meats products, including bacon, sausage, hot dogs, deli and lunch meats, dry sausage products, ham products, ready-to-eat products, and prepared foods to retail and foodservice customers. This segment markets its packaged meat products under the Smithfield, Eckrich, Nathan's Famous, Farmland, Armour, Farmer John, Kretschmar, Krakus, John Morrell, Cook's, Gwaltney, Carando, Margherita, Curly's and Smithfield Culinary, as well as under private labels. The Fresh Pork segment processes live hogs into a variety of primal, sub-primal, and offal products, such as bellies, butts, hams, loins, trimmings, picnics, and ribs. This segment sells its fresh pork products to retail, foodservice and industrial customers, as well as to export markets, including China, Mexico, Japan, South Korea, and Canada. The Hog Production segment produces and raises its hogs on various company-owned farms and farms that are owned and operated by contract farmers. This segment also sells livestock feed and grains; and provides transportation and other ancillary services. The Other segment engages in the bioscience operations uses raw materials from hogs that process to manufacture heparin products, including an active pharmaceutical ingredient that mitigates the risk of blood clots; and produces fresh pork products in Mexico. The company was founded in 1936 and is headquartered in Smithfield, Virginia. Smithfield Foods, Inc. is a subsidiary of SFDS UK Holdings Limited.
Company description, as reported by the company or data provider.
Revenue & earnings trend
FY2021 – FY2025 · reported fiscal years
Smithfield Foods, Inc reported revenue of $15.5B in FY2025 versus $15.0B in FY2021, a compound +0.9%/yr. Reported net income was $987M in FY2025, compounding +20.3%/yr from FY2021.
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Earlier news
External third-party headlines (Yahoo Finance, Reuters and others), not an editorial selection.
- Smithfield Foods to Announce Second Quarter Fiscal 2026 Results on August 11, 2026
- Devon Energy and Smithfield Foods Hit the Casualty List
- Waverly Advisors’ Affiliate Acquires Smithfield Trust Company
Peer Group
Packaged Foods · 650 stocks
How this stock ranks against its industry: the green marker is this stock, the band is the typical 25–75% peer range, and the tick is the median.
Valuation Multiples vs Packaged Foods median · lower = cheaper
Snowflake
Five quick dimensions, each 0 to 100: VALUE (fair-value potential), FUTURE (revenue growth), PAST (return on equity), HEALTH (low debt), DIVIDEND (yield). Green = this stock, grey = typical sector peer.
Values & ESG
Does this company touch areas you may want to avoid? The classification is inferred from sector and industry.
ESG scores are not available for this stock yet. Values and ESG data are contextual and can differ between providers.
Similar stocks
10 more Packaged Foods stocks, each showing price versus our Fair Value estimate (as of Jul 14, 2026).
| Stock | Price | Fair Value | vs Fair Value |
|---|---|---|---|
| Nestlé India Limited NESTLEIND | ₹1,427 | ₹362.37 | -75% |
| Britannia Industries Limited BRITANNIA | ₹5,413 | ₹1,870 | -65% |
| Tata Consumer Products Limited TATACONSUM | ₹1,089 | ₹327.27 | -70% |
| PT Indofood CBP Sukses Makmur Tbk ICBP | 6,650 IDR | 15,757 IDR | +137% |
| Samyang Foods Co 003230 | 1,139,000 KRW | 1,010,543 KRW | -11% |
| Patanjali Foods Limited PATANJALI | ₹413.80 | ₹157.04 | -62% |
| Vietnam Dairy Products Joint Stock Company VNM | 58,500 VND | 68,259 VND | +17% |
| PT Mayora Indah Tbk, MYOR | 1,750 IDR | 2,699 IDR | +54% |
| PT Cisarua Mountain Dairy Tbk CMRY | 4,490 IDR | 4,355 IDR | -3% |
| Nongshim Co 004370 | 348,500 KRW | 530,619 KRW | +52% |
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How we calculate Fair Value
Each company is valued through a stack of independent intrinsic-value models (DCF variants, residual-income, multiples and more), blended into one family-balanced consensus and weighted by how much trustworthy data backs it. A separate quality layer scores the fundamentals. Every input is real reported data, nothing guessed.
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