Smithfield Foods, Inc. (SFD) fair value: what the stock is really worth
As of Nov 4, 2026: fair value (intrinsic value) of Smithfield Foods, Inc. stock $41.40, price $19.72, upside +109.9%, quality 66 out of 100. Rating: strongly undervalued. Calculated from audited financials with 26 valuation models and 37 quality factors, updated daily.
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The stock costs 52% less than our calculation considers fair.
Fair value $41.40 · Strongly undervalued (52%)
Quality 66/100
Low debt
Generates free cash flow
6.0% dividend yield · Well covered
Ranks above peers(11/14)
Broad data
Even on cautious assumptions the value is 26% above the price ($24.77).
Thin margins · 5.9% net margin (TTM)
Moderate moat45/100 · thin data
Neutral coverage
Insiders sold $4.4M (6M)
Weak Growth(revenue 3y −1.4 %/yr in USD)
⚠ Small free float
Risks from the AI analysis
🚩Court ruling returns Sioux Falls permit to city council🚩Tariffs on China pork exports🚩PRC ownership restrictions on farmland🚩Concentration with Walmart customer
69 individual criteria per stock, every one traceableSee the method →
Price vs Fair Value
White line = price, green steps = our fair value per fiscal year. As of Nov 4, 2026.
How to read this chart
21‑month range $17.14 – $28.82 · fair‑value band $24.77 – $61.56 · the $19.72 price screens below the $41.40 fair value. Green steps = our fair value per fiscal year (point-in-time, no hindsight). 1 fiscal year is left out: there the valuation rested on only a fraction of the usual models. As of Nov 4, 2026.
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Smithfield Foods, Inc., together with its subsidiaries, produces various packaged meats and fresh pork products in the United States and internationally. It operates through Packaged Meats, Fresh Pork, Hog Production, and Other segments.
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The Packaged Meats segment processes fresh meat into various packaged meats products, including bacon, sausage, hot dogs, deli and lunch meats, dry sausage products, ham products, ready-to-eat products, and prepared foods to retail and foodservice customers.
This segment markets its packaged meat products under the Smithfield, Eckrich, Nathan's Famous, Farmland, Armour, Farmer John, Kretschmar, Krakus, John Morrell, Cook's, Gwaltney, Carando, Margherita, Curly's and Smithfield Culinary, as well as under private labels.
The Fresh Pork segment processes live hogs into a variety of primal, sub-primal, and offal products, such as bellies, butts, hams, loins, trimmings, picnics, and ribs.
This segment sells its fresh pork products to retail, foodservice and industrial customers, as well as to export markets, including China, Mexico, Japan, South Korea, and Canada.
The Hog Production segment produces and raises its hogs on various company-owned farms and farms that are owned and operated by contract farmers. This segment also sells livestock feed and grains; and provides transportation and other ancillary services.
The Other segment engages in the bioscience operations uses raw materials from hogs that process to manufacture heparin products, including an active pharmaceutical ingredient that mitigates the risk of blood clots; and produces fresh pork products in Mexico.
The company was founded in 1936 and is headquartered in Smithfield, Virginia. Smithfield Foods, Inc. is a subsidiary of SFDS UK Holdings Limited.
Stock analysis
Smithfield Foods, Inc. (SFD) currently trades at $19.72, while our model-based Fair Value estimate is $41.40, implying the stock looks roughly 52% undervalued today.
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Valuation
Bull case: the Multiples group reads highest at a median of $51.43 per share, and 21 of the 26 models we run sit above the $19.72 price.
Bear case: the Asset-Based group reads lowest at $6.67, and 5 of the 26 models stay below the price. Data coverage for this calculation is high.
Scenario range: $24.77 (bear) to $61.56 (bull), the price of $19.72 sits below it. Bear and bull are the same models on cautious and optimistic assumptions, a range, not a price target.
Quality & growth
The Quality Score stands at 66/100 (solid quality), in the Consumer Defensive sector.
Weak Growth: Revenue growth is weak: less than 2 % a year.
Smithfield Foods, Inc. Common Stock reported revenue of $15.5B in FY2025 versus $15.0B in FY2021, a compound +0.9%/yr. Reported net income was $987M in FY2025, compounding +20.3%/yr from FY2021.
Key figures
Market cap $7.8B Mid · P/E ratio 8.6 · P/S ratio 0.52 · EPS (TTM) $2.28 · Dividend yield 6.0% · Net margin 5.9% · Return on equity 13.0% · Return on assets (EBIT) 7.1%.
Competitive moat
Our AI-assisted moat analysis scores the competitive advantage at 45 out of 100 (low confidence).
What moves the price
The share trades about 32% below its 52-week high and 8% above its 52-week low, currently below its 200-day average.
For context, the median of 10 Consumer Defensive peers we cover trades at −2% fair-value upside, at 110%, SFD screens cheaper than that median.
Fair Value models
Bear$24.77Fair Value $41.40Bull$61.56
Price $19.72 · Upside +109.9%
Model ⓘEach model values the company its own way (discounted cash flow, earnings, assets, dividends). The fair value above starts from their evidence-weighted blend, not from a single model. In cyclical trough or peak years, after dilution or a stock split it is adjusted afterwards, so it can sit above or below the models. Based on fiscal year 2025 figures (about 10 months old). Earnings retained since then ($0.9275 per share) are deliberately not added.Bear ⓘBear = the cautious scenario: the same model computed with conservative anchors (lower growth, margins and valuation multiples). Together with Bull it frames a plausible valuation range, not a price target.BaseBull ⓘBull = the optimistic scenario: the same model computed with favourable anchors (higher growth, margins and valuation multiples). Together with Bear it frames a plausible valuation range, not a price target. If a model's bull case is above four times its base value, the table shows that limit with a > sign (like the overall Bull above): beyond it no assumption holds.Coverage ⓘCoverage = how well-backed THIS model's estimate is for this stock (0–100): how complete and reliable its input data are, and how well the model fits the company. The final Fair Value is an evidence-weighted blend, so better-evidenced models count more. Green ≥70, amber 50–69, grey below 50.
In the last 6 months, 3 officers or directors sold shares worth $4.4M and none bought.
SaleSteven FrancePresident, Packaged Meats82,825 shares at $26.82$2.2MJun 16, 2026
SaleRaymond A StarlingDirector3,960 shares at $26.78$106,049Jun 12, 2026
SaleMark L. HallChief Financial Officer78,579 shares at $26.36$2.1MJun 9, 2026
Plus 5 other filings such as grants, option exercises or tax withholding. They are not market purchases or sales.
Sales are often planned (taxes, diversification, 10b5-1 plans). Purchases with their own money are seen as the stronger sign. For information only: not part of the quality score or Fair Value.
Growth Quality ⓘGrowth is valuable only when reinvestment earns attractive returns (Aswath Damodaran): sustainable growth depends on return on capital, reinvestment and efficiency. Basis: total company revenue over the periods shown on the cards (3Y/5Y/all years), not per share, so a merger can show up as a growth jump; per-share earnings growth is in the value-creation card.40/100
Revenue growth is weak: less than 2 % a year.
Revenue growth 1 year
+9.8%
Revenue growth 3 years ⓘMeasures the company's TOTAL revenue from reported annual statements: compound average growth per year (CAGR) from the fiscal year 3, 5 or N years back to the most recent comparable fiscal year. Not per share: buybacks do not change this number, and a merger can appear as a growth jump. Per-share growth (which does include buybacks) is in the value-creation card.
−1.4%
Revenue growth 40 years ⓘMeasures the company's TOTAL revenue from reported annual statements: compound average growth per year (CAGR) from the fiscal year 3, 5 or N years back to the most recent comparable fiscal year. Not per share: buybacks do not change this number, and a merger can appear as a growth jump. Per-share growth (which does include buybacks) is in the value-creation card.
+7.5%
’08
’09
’10
’11
’12
’14
’15
’21
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’23
’24
’25
What shareholders gained per year (last 5 years) ⓘWhat the business itself delivers per year: earnings growth per share plus the dividend yield. This is what you get IF the market keeps valuing the stock the same way: it contains no assumption about the market changing its mind. Computed per share, so buybacks count and a merger does not pass as growth. For a company that pays no dividend it is pure earnings growth per share. Period: earnings growth per share as CAGR over the last 5 reported fiscal years (annual statements), plus the current dividend yield. The start value is the median of the three years around the start, so a single crisis year (a pandemic or a write-down) does not distort the rate. Basis: adjusted.
+26.6%
Earnings growth per share plus dividend.
Earnings per share, growth per year+20.6%
Dividend (yield on the price)6.0%
Pace: 5 vs 10 years ⓘTwo data points, not a trend model: earnings growth per share over the last 5 fiscal years against the last 10. Labelled "steady" when both rates are within 3 percentage points of each other, otherwise picking up or flattening. Shown only when ten years of history exist.15.9% vs 7.0%, picking up
Profit margin 2021 to 2025 ⓘOperating margin then vs now, from reported annual statements. A falling margin after a boom year is the classic peak-earnings signal: the growth rate then leans on an inflated base.4% → 8%
Pace: the 5-year rate starts in 2020 (pandemic)
⚠ Revenue per share shrinking 5.0%/yr over ~16Y (margins intact) ⓘStructural-decline marker: revenue PER SHARE has fallen over the last decade (robust median trend, not a single year). Backtested across 2005 to 2017, such businesses trailed the market by about 2.5 percentage points per year. Display only: it does not change the fair value or the quality score.
Growth Forecast
Price in line with expectations
The price assumes about as much growth as the company has delivered so far and about what analysts expect.
What the price assumes ⓘThis turns our valuation around: instead of asking what the share is worth, it asks what growth the current price requires. It uses the cash the company keeps after all spending (free cash flow), the same discount rate as our models, five years of growth, then slowing evenly to 2 % a year by year ten. Compared with the analysts' sales forecasts extended to the same five years (at least three analysts, for context only, it does not enter the Fair Value): within 3 percentage points counts as "in line" (amber), below that little optimism (green), above that a lot of optimism (red).
−0.5%
The company could shrink this much every year for the next five years and today's price would still be justified.
What forecasts expect ⓘAnalysts publish sales forecasts for the next two fiscal years. For the years after that, growth slows evenly to 2 % a year by year ten (2 % is the long-run rate our models use). Projected years are marked as such.
−1.5%
Yearly sales growth analysts expect, extended to five years.
After inflation (USA: IMF forecast 2.4% a year to 2030, 3.1% from 2016 to 2025) that is about −2.8% a year for the price and −3.8% for the forecasts.
News mood ⓘNews mood, the average tone of recent news (93 articles), rated against how stocks are usually covered. 🚀 Hype = unusually upbeat · 🙂 Positive = above average · 😐 Neutral = typical · 🙁 Negative = below average · 😨 Very negative = unusually downbeat. It reflects the tone of coverage, not our valuation.Neutral
Recent news coverage is roughly neutral, about typical for how stocks are covered.
AI conclusion: Advancing automated facilities that integrate fresh pork processing with value-added packaged meats offers efficiency gains as main strength, while the lack of evidence for any durable moat amid limited data and commodity exposure remains the key weakness.
Main risk: Tariffs of 25% to 47% on exports to China could reduce volumes and compress margins in the fresh pork and hog production segments.
Bull case: The company could offset export tariff pressures by accelerating growth in higher-margin packaged meats and securing alternative export markets outside China.
Bear case: Sustained tariffs combined with ownership restrictions could force reduced exports and asset sales, eroding scale and profitability in core pork operations.
Smithfield is advancing a major shift toward modern, automated facilities that combine fresh pork processing with value-added packaged meats to capture efficiency gains. A recent court ruling has sent the permit for its large Sioux Falls project back to the city council, adding uncertainty to the timeline. Our models see the stock as undervalued, but will regulatory hurdles slow the move into higher-margin packaged meats or turn out to be short-lived?
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Peer GroupⓘHow this stock ranks against its industry: the green marker is this stock, the band is the typical 25–75% peer range, and the tick is the median.Packaged Foods · 628 stocks
Beats the industry median on 11/14 measures
Overall it ranks above its industry peers.
Valuation
Quality Score66 · Top 25%
Fair Value upside+109.9% · Top 25%
Profitability
Return on equity (12 months)13.0% · Above median
Return on assets8.1% · Top 25%
Net margin (12 months)5.9% · Above median
Operating margin (12 months)3.9% · Below median
Growth and dividend
Revenue growth (quarter YoY)−8.3% · Bottom 25%
Dividend yield (12 months)6.0% · Top 25%
Balance sheet
Debt / equity0.29× · Above median
Valuation Multiplesvs Packaged Foods median · lower = cheaper
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Cite: Fair Value Calculator (2026). "Smithfield Foods, Inc. Common Stock Fair Value". https://www.fairvalue-calculator.com/stock/SFD
Frequently asked questions
Is Smithfield Foods, Inc. (SFD) overvalued or undervalued?
As of Nov 4, 2026, our model estimates a fair value of $41.40 versus a price of $19.72, about +110% upside (undervalued).
What is the fair value of SFD?
Our model-based fair value for Smithfield Foods, Inc. Common Stock is $41.40 (as of Nov 4, 2026), built from audited fundamentals. The current price: $19.72.
What is the quality score of SFD?
Smithfield Foods, Inc. Common Stock has a Quality Score of 66/100. It measures business quality (profitability, growth, cash flow, balance-sheet strength, investment discipline, share issuance). Market factors such as price momentum and volatility do not enter the number; they are shown separately in the detail view.
What is the price target for Smithfield Foods, Inc. (SFD)?
Our model-based price target is the fair value of $41.40 (as of Nov 4, 2026) from 26 valuation models. Cautious scenario $24.77, optimistic scenario $61.56. It is a calculation from audited fundamentals, not an analyst target.
What is the Smithfield Foods, Inc. Common Stock stock forecast for 2026?
Our models put fair value at $41.40, about +110% upside versus a price of $19.72 (undervalued). Cautious scenario $24.77, optimistic scenario $61.56. The calculation is refreshed regularly with new filings.
What is the revenue of Smithfield Foods, Inc. (SFD)?
Smithfield Foods, Inc. Common Stock reported trailing-twelve-month revenue of about $15.2B (latest available figure, as of Nov 4, 2026).
Does Smithfield Foods, Inc. Common Stock pay a dividend?
Smithfield Foods, Inc. Common Stock currently shows a dividend yield of 6.02% relative to its recent price (as of Nov 4, 2026).
What growth is priced into Smithfield Foods, Inc. (SFD)?
For today's price to be fair in a discounted-cash-flow model, Smithfield Foods, Inc. Common Stock would have to grow free cash flow by -0.5 % per year for five years (discount rate 9.7 %, then slowing evenly to 2 % perpetual growth by year ten). Over the last 10 years revenue grew +0.7 % per year. As of Nov 4, 2026.
What discount rate (WACC) does the fair value of SFD use?
Our models discount Smithfield Foods, Inc. Common Stock at 9.7 %: a base by market capitalisation (mid), country premium for USA. The same rate applies in all 26 models.
What is a reverse DCF?
A reverse DCF turns the usual calculation around. Instead of deriving a value from assumptions, it takes today's price as given and asks: what free-cash-flow growth would a company have to deliver for exactly this price to be fair? The result is not a forecast but the expectation already priced in. For Smithfield Foods, Inc. Common Stock that is -0.5 % per year a year over ten years, using the same discount rate (9.7 %) and the same formula as our fair value.
How much growth has Smithfield Foods, Inc. (SFD) delivered so far?
Over the past 10 years revenue at Smithfield Foods, Inc. Common Stock grew +0.7 % a year. The price currently implies -0.5 % per year free-cash-flow growth a year. Comparing the two shows how much confidence is in the price: if it demands more than has been delivered, the business has to accelerate for the maths to work.
How fast is the sector of Smithfield Foods, Inc. (SFD) growing?
The median revenue growth in the sector is +3.6 % a year. That is the yardstick for the growth priced into Smithfield Foods, Inc. Common Stock (-0.5 % per year a year): it shows whether the expectation is within the usual range or beyond it.
What is the free cash flow yield of Smithfield Foods, Inc. (SFD)?
The free-cash-flow yield on the price is 9.20 %: that much free cash flow Smithfield Foods, Inc. Common Stock produces per unit of market value. When it exceeds the discount rate of our models (9.7 %), the business already earns more than its cost of capital demands, and the price needs little additional growth.
What is the intrinsic value of Smithfield Foods, Inc. (SFD)?
Intrinsic value and fair value mean the same thing: what the business is worth on its numbers, independent of the share price. For Smithfield Foods, Inc. Common Stock it is $41.40 per share (as of Nov 4, 2026), against a price of $19.72. It is the blended result of 26 valuation models (cash flow, earnings, asset, dividend).
Is Smithfield Foods, Inc. Common Stock stock overvalued or undervalued in 2026?
As of Nov 4, 2026, SFD trades below its calculated fair value: price $19.72, fair value $41.40, a gap of about +110% (undervalued). The calculation is refreshed with each new quarterly report, so the verdict can change during the year.
Is fair value the same as the market price of SFD?
No. The price is what the market pays today ($19.72); the fair value is what the company's own numbers justify ($41.40). For Smithfield Foods, Inc. Common Stock the two are $21.68 per share apart. That gap is exactly why we show both numbers side by side.
How much is Smithfield Foods, Inc. Common Stock worth?
The market values Smithfield Foods, Inc. Common Stock at about $7.8B (market capitalisation, as of Nov 4, 2026). Per share that is $19.72; our models calculate a fair value of $41.40 per share.
What do the bullish and bearish scenarios say about SFD?
Our models span a range for Smithfield Foods, Inc. Common Stock: cautious scenario $24.77, base $41.40, optimistic $61.56 per share (as of Nov 4, 2026, price $19.72). The range comes from different growth and margin assumptions, not from analyst opinions.
What is the P/E ratio of SFD?
Smithfield Foods, Inc. Common Stock trades at a price-to-earnings ratio of 8.6 (as of Nov 4, 2026). A P/E on its own says little: it compares the price with ONE year of profit, while our fair value of $41.40 is built from several models across several years. Other multiples: P/B 1.2, P/S 0.5, EV/EBITDA 5.5.
How solid is the balance sheet of Smithfield Foods, Inc. (SFD)?
Balance-sheet figures for Smithfield Foods, Inc. Common Stock (as of Nov 4, 2026): return on equity 13.0%, debt of 0.29 per unit of equity. They feed the Quality Score of 66/100, which measures business quality independently of the share price.
How far is SFD from its 52-week high?
Smithfield Foods, Inc. Common Stock trades at $19.72, about 32% below its 52-week high of $28.82 and 8% above the low of $18.22 (as of Nov 4, 2026). Distance from the high says nothing about value: that is what the fair value of $41.40 is for.
Which stocks are comparable to Smithfield Foods, Inc. Common Stock?
From the same area (Consumer Defensive) we also value Nestlé S.A, Danone S.A, Foshan Haitian Flavouring and Food Company, The Kraft Heinz Company, among others. Each of them has its own fair-value calculation on this site using the same models, so the comparison is like for like.
Is Smithfield Foods, Inc. Common Stock stock attractive at the current price?
The data as of Nov 4, 2026: price $19.72, calculated fair value $41.40 (+110%), Quality Score 66/100, from 26 models. Whether that fits your horizon and risk tolerance is your call. We provide the calculation, not investment advice.
How is the fair value of SFD calculated?
We run Smithfield Foods, Inc. Common Stock through 26 models from four families: discounted cash flow, earnings models, asset and balance-sheet models, and dividend models. Every model gets the same audited fundamentals; the result is the weighted average of $41.40, with the spread shown as a cautious and an optimistic scenario.
Is it still worth investing in stocks now?
The global stock market currently sits 15.6% above its aggregate fair value. Smithfield Foods, Inc. Common Stock currently trades 52% below its own fair value, and the market average says nothing about that. An expensive market is no reason to stay out and no reason to buy everything at once: keep a broad savings plan running, buy single stocks only with money you can do without, and hold part of your money liquid while the market is high. The full picture including sectors is on is it worth investing now.
What is the share price of Smithfield Foods, Inc. (SFD)?
The closing price on Nov 4, 2026 was $19.72. Our model-based fair value is $41.40, about +110% upside (undervalued). We carry closing prices from our data provider, not a live tick.
What should I pay attention to with Smithfield Foods, Inc. Common Stock right now?
The price is below even our cautious bear case ($24.77). The market is more pessimistic than our downside scenario. Solid quality (66/100) at a price below fair value, the discount is the argument here, not the business quality. A fairly wide model range ($24.77 to $61.56) leaves room in how you read the outcome.
Where does the earnings growth of Smithfield Foods, Inc. (SFD) come from?
Earnings per share at Smithfield Foods, Inc. Common Stock grew +6.8 % a year from 2014 to 2025. Broken into its drivers: revenue per share +0.1 %, EBIT margin +3.3 %, tax rate +0.9 %, residual (interest, one-offs) +2.3 %. The four rates multiply to the earnings growth rate, they do not add up. Start and end are three-year averages so a single exceptional year does not distort the result.
Key figures of Smithfield Foods, Inc. Common Stock
How large is the market capitalisation of Smithfield Foods, Inc. (SFD)?
The market capitalisation of Smithfield Foods, Inc. Common Stock is $7.8B. The stock-market value of the whole company: share price times number of shares. It is what the market asks for the entire business today.
What is the P/S ratio of Smithfield Foods, Inc. (SFD)?
The price-to-sales ratio of Smithfield Foods, Inc. Common Stock is 0.52 (last twelve months). Price to sales: market value relative to yearly revenue. Useful when profit is thin or distorted.
What are the earnings per share of Smithfield Foods, Inc. (SFD)?
Earnings per share at Smithfield Foods, Inc. Common Stock are $2.28 (price ÷ EPS = P/E 8.6). Earnings per share over the last twelve months: total profit spread across every single share.
What is the dividend yield of Smithfield Foods, Inc. (SFD)?
The dividend yield of Smithfield Foods, Inc. Common Stock is 6.0% (payout 52.1%). Yearly dividend relative to the share price. 3% pays 3 per 100 invested. Below: how much of profit is used for it.
What is the net margin of Smithfield Foods, Inc. (SFD)?
The net margin of Smithfield Foods, Inc. Common Stock is 5.9% (last twelve months). How much of every unit of revenue ends up as profit. 10% means 10 cents of profit per dollar of sales.
What is the return on equity of Smithfield Foods, Inc. (SFD)?
The return on equity (ROE) of Smithfield Foods, Inc. Common Stock is 13.0% (last twelve months). Profit relative to shareholders' equity, how efficiently the company works with its owners' money.
What is the EBIT return on assets of Smithfield Foods, Inc. (SFD)?
On an EBIT basis the return on assets of Smithfield Foods, Inc. Common Stock is 7.1% (avg 4y). Operating profit (EBIT) relative to everything the company owns, as a multi-year average. It describes the business model rather than one good or bad year.
What is the operating margin of Smithfield Foods, Inc. (SFD)?
The operating margin of Smithfield Foods, Inc. Common Stock is 3.9% (last twelve months). Profit from the core business (before interest and taxes) relative to revenue.
How fast is revenue growing at Smithfield Foods, Inc. (SFD)?
Revenue at Smithfield Foods, Inc. Common Stock is growing −8.3% versus a year earlier (3y avg −1.4%). How much revenue grew versus a year earlier (YoY). The 3-year average next to it puts the single year in context.
How fast are earnings growing at Smithfield Foods, Inc. (SFD)?
Earnings per share at Smithfield Foods, Inc. Common Stock are growing −64.1% versus a year earlier. How much earnings per share grew versus a year earlier.
How much net debt does Smithfield Foods, Inc. (SFD) carry?
The net debt of Smithfield Foods, Inc. Common Stock is $857M (fiscal year 2025, ≈ 1.2 yrs of FCF). Debt minus cash on hand. The note shows how many years of free cash flow could in theory pay it off.
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Broad data
Nov 4, 2026