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Shandong Molong Petroleum Machinery Company (SHANF) Fair Value & Analysis

Energy · US · Market cap $224M

SM Shandong Molong Petroleum Machinery Company logo Shandong Molong Petroleum Machinery Company SHANF · US
Price$0.9400
Fair Value$0.1600
Upside-83.0%
Quality59/100
Weak Growth
Thin margins · 0.3% net margin
Low debt · generates free cash flow
Ranks above peers (7/11)
Narrow moat 27/100
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Evidence: High Range $0.1600 – $0.1600 Share as image

Fair value as of: Jul 18, 2026

From 23 valuation models · updated 18 days ago

Fair value updated Jul 18, 2026, revised from $0.5100 to $0.1600 (−68.6%) since Jun 24, 2026.

A solid business, but screening 83% overvalued on our models.

What matters now

  • The price sits above even our optimistic bull case ($0.1600). The favourable scenario is already priced in.
  • Solid but not exceptional quality (59/100) and above fair value, neither a clear bargain nor a standout compounder.
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Price vs Fair Value (5 years)

$1.31 $0.0762 Fair Value $0.1600 Oct 2015 Aug 2026

White line = price, green steps = our fair value per fiscal year, dashed = 300-day average. As of Jul 18, 2026.

How to read this chart

60‑month range $0.0762 – $1.31 · the $0.9400 price screens above the $0.1600 fair value. Green steps = our fair value per fiscal year (point-in-time, no hindsight). Dashed = 300-day average. As of Jul 18, 2026.

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Analysis

Shandong Molong Petroleum Machinery Company (SHANF) currently trades at $0.9400, while our model-based Fair Value estimate is $0.1600, implying the stock looks roughly 83.0% overvalued today. We read business quality at 59/100 (solid quality), in the Energy sector. Bear case: priced above our estimate, the market already discounts strong expectations. Bull case: above-average quality can justify a premium, the entry price still matters most (evidence: high).

Over the trailing twelve months, Shandong Molong Petroleum Machinery Company generated revenue of $2.1B at a net margin of 0.3%. Revenue grew 128.5% year over year. It earns a return on equity of 1.0%. Net debt stands at $1.3B. Fundamentals as of Jul 18, 2026

The share trades about 28% below its 52-week high and 203% above its 52-week low, currently above its 200-day average. For context, the median of 10 Energy peers we cover trades at -36% fair-value upside, at -83%, SHANF screens richer than that median.

Fair Value models

Each model estimates fair value its own way; the Fair Value above is the evidence-weighted blend. Evidence (0–100) measures how completely this model’s inputs are available: well-fed models carry more weight in the blend. The spread across models is intentional, each one stresses a different value driver; dividend models, for instance, come out structurally low when payout is small.

Model BearBaseBull Evidence
Highest evidence
Growth DCF $1.13 $1.33 $1.67 80
Residual Income $0.1745 $0.1600 $0.1004 76
Rev-Margin DCF $0.7665 $0.9309 $1.15 74
All 23 models by family
DCF Models
FCF DCF $1.11 $1.33 $1.71 38
5Y Revenue Exit $0.7665 $0.9047 $1.11 39
5Y EBITDA Exit $0.9382 $1.20 $1.55 41
5Y P/E Exit $0.6211 $0.6589 $0.7142 38
10Y Revenue Exit $0.9164 $1.05 $1.19 36
10Y EBITDA Exit $1.01 $1.21 $1.43 37
10Y P/E Exit $0.8480 $0.9105 $0.9644 35
Earnings-Based
Graham-Dodd $0.0189 $0.0320 $0.0393 54
EPV $0.3913 $0.4204 $0.4436 59
Dividend Discount
Gordon GGM $0.3564 $0.4145 $0.4698 70
DDM Multi-Stage $0.3564 $0.4378 $0.5222 61
Multiples
P/E Multiple $0.0422 $0.0567 $0.0713 63
P/S Multiple $0.0364 $0.0480 $0.0611 58
P/B Multiple $0.0364 $0.0480 $0.0611 55
EV/EBIT $0.6516 $0.8175 $0.9818 53
EV/EBITDA $0.8887 $1.13 $1.38 54
EV/Revenue $0.4902 $0.6327 $0.7767 43
Asset-Based
NCAV (Graham) $0.1411 $0.1891 $0.2822 50
Growth DCF
Growth DCF $1.13 $1.33 $1.67 80
Rev-Margin DCF $0.7665 $0.9309 $1.15 74
Economic Profit
Residual Income $0.1745 $0.1600 $0.1004 76
ROIC Compounder $0.3942 $0.4262 $0.4582 72
Growth Earnings
Growth-Adj P/E $0.0305 $0.0436 $0.0567 68

Widest divergence: DCF Models ($1.05) versus Earnings-Based ($0.0320). Highest evidence: Growth DCF (80).

Key figures & financial health

Revenue (TTM) $2.1B
Revenue growth (YoY) +129%
Net margin 0.3%
Return on equity 1.0%
Free cash flow $226M FY2025
Operating margin 6.5%
More key figures
EPS growth (YoY) +2.9%
Net debt $1.3B FY2025

Figures from reported company fundamentals · as of Jul 18, 2026. TTM = trailing twelve months.

Quality Score breakdown

Overall quality 59/100

Of which business quality 53 · Market factors (momentum, volatility) 68

Profitability 21
Margins and returns on capital today
Quality Growth 72
Are margins and returns improving?
Cashflow 72
Earnings quality: real cash, not paper profit
Fin. Strength 11
Balance sheet, leverage, solvency risk
Investment 94
Disciplined investing over empire-building
Low Volatility 50
Calm price path (market factor)
Momentum 72
Price trend over the last 3–12 months (market factor)
52W Momentum 82
Distance to the 52-week high (market factor)
Net Issuance 82
Buybacks instead of dilution

Non-valuation factor families (profitability, growth, cashflow, financial strength, momentum …), each academically grounded. Valuation itself sits in the Fair Value and is deliberately excluded here to avoid double-counting.

About the company

Shandong Molong Petroleum Machinery Company Limited, together with its subsidiaries, engages in the design, research and development, production, and sale of products and services for the energy equipment industry in the People's Republic of China and internationally.

Full company description

Shandong Molong Petroleum Machinery Company Limited, together with its subsidiaries, engages in the design, research and development, production, and sale of products and services for the energy equipment industry in the People's Republic of China and internationally. It operates through Pipe Products; Oil sucker, sucker pump, sucker rod; Petroleum Machinery Parts; Casting and Forging; and Others segments. The company offers oil casings and drill pipe bodies; pipeline, boiler, fluid conveying, hydraulic support, gas cylinder, and structural pipes; stage drawing equipment and accessories; sucker rods, oil pumps, oil pumping units, petroleum machinery accessories, and downhole tools; precision casting and forging products. It also provides API and non-API casing products, line pipe products, precision steel pipes, hydraulic prop tubes, fluid pipes, cylinder valves, and boiler tubes; tubular, multi-functional, inclined well, sand preventing, and feedback pumps; and cylinder liners and gate valves. The company's products are used in oil, natural gas, shale gas, coalbed methane, hydrogen energy, petroleum refining, coal mining machinery, boiler manufacturing, construction machinery manufacturing, and oilfield services. The company exports its products to the Middle East, Southeast Asia, Central Asia, Africa, and South America and other countries and regions. Shandong Molong Petroleum Machinery Company Limited was founded in 1987 and is based in Shouguang, China.

Company description, as reported by the company or data provider.

Revenue & earnings trend

FY2021 – FY2025 · reported fiscal years

Shandong Molong Petroleum Machinery Company reported revenue of $1.7B in FY2025 versus $3.7B in FY2021, a compound −17.7%/yr. Reported net income was $5.0M in FY2025.

Growth Quality 40/100
Revenue growth is weak, negative or inconsistent.
Latest Revenue (FY 2025)
$1.7B
Latest YoY
+26.4%
Avg. growth/yr (3Y)
−14.7%
Avg. growth/yr (5Y)
−10.6%
Avg. growth/yr (20Y)
+4.0%
Revenue −17.7%/yr
FY21 $3.7B
FY22 $2.8B
FY23 $1.3B
FY24 $1.4B
FY25 $1.7B
Net income
FY21 −$368M
FY22 −$425M
FY23 −$567M
FY24 −$43.7M
FY25 $5.0M

SHANF screens 83% overvalued. Compare with SLB N.V →

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Cite: Fair Value Calculator (2026). "Shandong Molong Petroleum Machinery Company Fair Value". https://www.fairvalue-calculator.com/stock/SHANF

Peer Group

Oil & Gas Equipment & Services · 200 stocks

How this stock ranks against its industry: the green marker is this stock, the band is the typical 25–75% peer range, and the tick is the median.

Quality Score 59 · Top 25%
Fair Value upside −83% · Bottom 25%
Return on equity (TTM) 1% · Below median
Return on assets 2% · Below median
Net margin (TTM) 0% · Below median
Operating margin (TTM) 7% · Above median
Revenue growth 129% · Top 25%

Valuation Multiples vs Oil & Gas Equipment & Services median · lower = cheaper

P/B 0.45× · Cheaper than 75% of peers
P/S (TTM) 0.11× · Cheaper than 75% of peers
P/FCF 1.0× · Cheaper than 75% of peers

Snowflake

Five quick dimensions, each 0 to 100: VALUE (fair-value potential), FUTURE (revenue growth), PAST (return on equity), HEALTH (low debt), DIVIDEND (yield). Green = this stock, grey = typical sector peer.

VALUE 0 · sector 0
FUTURE 100 · sector 0
PAST 4 · sector 26
HEALTH 100 · sector 93
DIVIDEND 0 · sector 31

VALUE 0: the price sits above our fair-value range.

Values & ESG

Does this company touch areas you may want to avoid? The classification is inferred from sector and industry.

Oil & gas

ESG scores are not available for this stock yet. Values and ESG data are contextual and can differ between providers.

Similar stocks

10 more Oil & Gas Equipment & Services stocks, each showing price versus our Fair Value estimate (as of Jul 18, 2026).

Stock Price Fair Value vs Fair Value
SLB N.V SLBN 836.00 MXN 533.97 MXN -36%
Baker Hughes Company BKR $55.95 $33.55 -40%
TechnipFMC plc FTI $74.57 $27.57 -63%
Halliburton Company HAL $35.22 $21.50 -39%
Tenaris S.A TS $57.16 $45.68 -20%
Yantai Jereh Oilfield Services Group 002353 ¥138.79 ¥34.17 -75%
Saipem SpA SPM €4.20 €2.72 -35%
Subsea 7 S.A SUBC kr 319.00 kr 227.98 -29%
China Oilfield Services Limited 601808 ¥11.20 ¥11.43 +2%
Gaztransport & Technigaz SA GTT €188.10 €95.01 -49%

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Frequently asked questions

Is Shandong Molong Petroleum Machinery Company (SHANF) overvalued or undervalued?
As of Jul 18, 2026, our model estimates a fair value of $0.1600 versus a price of $0.9400, about −83% (overvalued).
What is the fair value of SHANF?
Our model-based fair value for Shandong Molong Petroleum Machinery Company is $0.1600 (as of Jul 18, 2026), built from audited fundamentals. The current price is $0.9400.
What is the quality score of SHANF?
Shandong Molong Petroleum Machinery Company has a Quality Score of 59/100, measuring profitability, growth and balance-sheet strength from non-valuation factors.
What is the revenue of Shandong Molong Petroleum Machinery Company (SHANF)?
Shandong Molong Petroleum Machinery Company reported trailing-twelve-month revenue of about $2.1B (latest available figure, as of Jul 18, 2026).
What is the net profit margin of SHANF?
The net profit margin of Shandong Molong Petroleum Machinery Company is about 0.3%, meaning it keeps roughly 0.3% of revenue as net income. Based on the latest reported figures.

How we calculate Fair Value

Each company is valued through a stack of independent intrinsic-value models (DCF variants, residual-income, multiples and more), blended into one family-balanced consensus and weighted by how much trustworthy data backs it. A separate quality layer scores the fundamentals. Every input is real reported data, nothing guessed.

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