Svenska Handelsbanken AB (publ) (SHB-A) fair value: what the stock is really worth
As of Oct 14, 2026: fair value of Svenska Handelsbanken AB (publ) SEK 148, price SEK 154, upside -3.8%, quality 51 out of 100. Calculated from audited financials with 26 valuation models and 37 quality factors, updated daily.
69 individual criteria per stock, every one traceableSee the method →
Price vs Fair Value
White line = price, green steps = our fair value per fiscal year, dashed = 300-day average. As of Oct 14, 2026.
How to read this chart
60‑month range kr 59.29 – kr 156.00 · fair‑value band kr 111.14 – kr 185.23 · the kr 154.00 price screens above the kr 148.18 fair value. Green steps = our fair value per fiscal year (point-in-time, no hindsight). Dashed = 300-day average. As of Oct 14, 2026.
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Svenska Handelsbanken AB (publ) provides various banking products and services for private and corporate customers primarily in Sweden, the United Kingdom, Norway, the Netherlands, and internationally. The company offers personal and corporate banking, and financial institutions.
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It provides green loans, pension, advisory, investment and other financing services.
In addition, the company's financial services, includes asset management, transaction banking, corporate finance, financing, markets, trade finance, market information and research services to large corporations; trading and execution.
Further, it provides cash management, and securities finance solutions; and various corporate banking services to small and medium-sized companies and large corporates, as well as digital and private banking services.
Svenska Handelsbanken AB (publ) was incorporated in 1871 and is headquartered in Stockholm, Sweden.
Stock analysis
Svenska Handelsbanken AB (publ) (SHB-A) currently trades at kr 154.00, while our model-based Fair Value estimate is kr 148.18, so the stock looks roughly fairly valued today (gap 3.9%).
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Valuation
Bull case: the Multiples group reads highest at a median of kr 143.51 per share, and 1 of the 4 models we run sit above the kr 154.00 price.
Bear case: the Asset-Based group reads lowest at kr 68.68, and 3 of the 4 models stay below the price. Data coverage for this calculation is high.
Scenario range: kr 111.14 (bear) to kr 185.23 (bull), the price of kr 154.00 sits inside it. Bear and bull are the same models on cautious and optimistic assumptions, a range, not a price target.
Quality & growth
The Quality Score stands at 51/100 (solid quality), in the Financial Services sector.
Expensive Growth: The company is growing, but growth may require heavy reinvestment or weak cash conversion.
Svenska Handelsbanken AB (publ) reported revenue of 144B SEK in FY2025 versus 42.9B SEK in FY2021, a compound +35.3%/yr. Reported net income was 23.7B SEK in FY2025, compounding +5.0%/yr from FY2021.
Key figures
Market cap 305B SEK (≈ $30.6B) · P/E ratio 13.0 · P/S ratio 2.15 · EPS (TTM) kr 11.97 · Dividend yield 11.4% · Net margin 16.5% · Return on equity 12.8% · Return on assets (EBIT) 1.1%.
Competitive moat
Our AI-assisted moat analysis scores the competitive advantage at 72 out of 100 (medium confidence).
What moves the price
The share trades about 1% below its 52-week high and 44% above its 52-week low, currently above its 200-day average.
For context, the median of 10 Financial Services peers we cover trades at −18% fair-value upside, at −4%, SHB-A screens cheaper than that median.
Fair Value models
Bearkr 111.14Fair Value kr 148.18Bullkr 185.23
Price kr 154.00 · Upside -3.8%
Model ⓘEach model values the company its own way (discounted cash flow, earnings, assets, dividends). The fair value above is their evidence-weighted blend, not the output of a single model.Bear ⓘBear = the cautious scenario: the same model computed with conservative anchors (lower growth, margins and valuation multiples). Together with Bull it frames a plausible valuation range, not a price target.BaseBull ⓘBull = the optimistic scenario: the same model computed with favourable anchors (higher growth, margins and valuation multiples). Together with Bear it frames a plausible valuation range, not a price target. If a model's bull case is above four times its base value, the table shows that limit with a > sign (like the overall Bull above): beyond it no assumption holds.Coverage ⓘCoverage = how well-backed THIS model's estimate is for this stock (0–100): how complete and reliable its input data are, and how well the model fits the company. The final Fair Value is an evidence-weighted blend, so better-evidenced models count more. Green ≥70, amber 50–69, grey below 50.
Growth Quality ⓘGrowth is valuable only when reinvestment earns attractive returns (Aswath Damodaran): sustainable growth depends on return on capital, reinvestment and efficiency. Basis: total company revenue over the periods shown on the cards (3Y/5Y/all years), not per share, so a merger can show up as a growth jump; per-share earnings growth is in the value-creation card.62/100
The company is growing, but growth may require heavy reinvestment or weak cash conversion.
Revenue growth 1 year
+130.5%
Revenue growth 3 years ⓘMeasures the company's TOTAL revenue from reported annual statements: compound average growth per year (CAGR) from the fiscal year 3, 5 or N years back to the most recent comparable fiscal year. Not per share: buybacks do not change this number, and a merger can appear as a growth jump. Per-share growth (which does include buybacks) is in the value-creation card.
+42.9%
Revenue growth 5 years ⓘMeasures the company's TOTAL revenue from reported annual statements: compound average growth per year (CAGR) from the fiscal year 3, 5 or N years back to the most recent comparable fiscal year. Not per share: buybacks do not change this number, and a merger can appear as a growth jump. Per-share growth (which does include buybacks) is in the value-creation card.
+26.6%
Start year 2020 (pandemic). Over 10 years: +13.9% a year
Revenue growth 20 years ⓘMeasures the company's TOTAL revenue from reported annual statements: compound average growth per year (CAGR) from the fiscal year 3, 5 or N years back to the most recent comparable fiscal year. Not per share: buybacks do not change this number, and a merger can appear as a growth jump. Per-share growth (which does include buybacks) is in the value-creation card.
+8.9%
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What shareholders gained per year (last 5 years) ⓘWhat the business itself delivers per year: earnings growth per share plus the dividend yield. This is what you get IF the market keeps valuing the stock the same way: it contains no assumption about the market changing its mind. Computed per share, so buybacks count and a merger does not pass as growth. For a company that pays no dividend it is pure earnings growth per share. Period: earnings growth per share as CAGR over the last 5 reported fiscal years (annual statements), plus the current dividend yield. The start value is the median of the three years around the start, so a single crisis year (a pandemic or a write-down) does not distort the rate.
+18.4%
Earnings growth per share plus dividend.
Earnings per share, growth per year+7.0%
Dividend (yield on the price)11.4%
Pace: 5 vs 10 years ⓘTwo data points, not a trend model: earnings growth per share over the last 5 fiscal years against the last 10. Labelled "steady" when both rates are within 3 percentage points of each other, otherwise picking up or flattening. Shown only when ten years of history exist.7.0% vs 3.8%, picking up
Profit margin 2020 to 2025 ⓘOperating margin then vs now, from reported annual statements. A falling margin after a boom year is the classic peak-earnings signal: the growth rate then leans on an inflated base.46% → 21%
AI conclusion: The decentralized banking model provides a moderate moat through organization and human capital while earning recognition as the world's safest commercial bank yet this is offset by commoditized pricing typical bank cash flows and negative operating cash flow.
Main risk: The conservative decentralized approach may constrain market share capture in core Swedish and Norwegian markets which would hit volume growth and revenue expansion.
Handelsbanken's decentralized model has earned it recognition as the world's safest commercial bank. Yet volume growth remains subdued in Sweden and Norway even as international operations expand. Will this conservative approach deliver lasting resilience through rate cycles or constrain its ability to capture market share?
Compare Svenska Handelsbanken AB (publ) with another stock
Price, fair value, quality and upside side by side.
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Peer GroupⓘHow this stock ranks against its industry: the green marker is this stock, the band is the typical 25–75% peer range, and the tick is the median.Banks - Diversified · 44 stocks
Beats the industry median on 7/14 measures
A mixed picture versus its industry peers.
Valuation
Quality Score51 · Below median
Fair Value upside−3.8% · Top 25%
Profitability
Return on equity (12 months)12.8% · Above median
Return on assets0.7% · Below median
Net margin (12 months)42.6% · Top 25%
Operating margin (12 months)50.1% · Above median
Growth and dividend
Revenue growth−3.8% · Bottom 25%
Dividend yield (12 months)11.4% · Top 25%
Balance sheet
Debt / equity7.34× · Highest 25%
Valuation Multiplesvs Banks - Diversified median · lower = cheaper
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Cite: Fair Value Calculator (2026). "Svenska Handelsbanken AB (publ) Fair Value". https://www.fairvalue-calculator.com/stock/SHB-A
Frequently asked questions
Is Svenska Handelsbanken AB (publ) (SHB-A) overvalued or undervalued?
As of Oct 14, 2026, our model estimates a fair value of kr 148.18 versus a price of kr 154.00, about −4% upside (fairly valued).
What is the fair value of SHB-A?
Our model-based fair value for Svenska Handelsbanken AB (publ) is kr 148.18 (as of Oct 14, 2026), built from audited fundamentals. The current price: kr 154.00.
What is the quality score of SHB-A?
Svenska Handelsbanken AB (publ) has a Quality Score of 51/100. It measures business quality (profitability, growth, cash flow, balance-sheet strength, investment discipline, share issuance). Market factors such as price momentum and volatility do not enter the number; they are shown separately in the detail view.
What is the price target for Svenska Handelsbanken AB (publ) (SHB-A)?
Our model-based price target is the fair value of kr 148.18 (as of Oct 14, 2026) from 4 valuation models. Cautious scenario kr 111.14, optimistic scenario kr 185.23. It is a calculation from audited fundamentals, not an analyst target.
What is the Svenska Handelsbanken AB (publ) stock forecast for 2026?
Our models put fair value at kr 148.18, about −4% upside versus a price of kr 154.00 (fairly valued). Cautious scenario kr 111.14, optimistic scenario kr 185.23. The calculation is refreshed regularly with new filings.
What is the revenue of Svenska Handelsbanken AB (publ) (SHB-A)?
Svenska Handelsbanken AB (publ) reported trailing-twelve-month revenue of about 55.2B SEK (latest available figure, as of Oct 14, 2026).
Does Svenska Handelsbanken AB (publ) pay a dividend?
Svenska Handelsbanken AB (publ) currently shows a dividend yield of about 11.36% relative to its recent price (as of Oct 14, 2026).
What is the intrinsic value of Svenska Handelsbanken AB (publ) (SHB-A)?
Intrinsic value and fair value mean the same thing: what the business is worth on its numbers, independent of the share price. For Svenska Handelsbanken AB (publ) it is kr 148.18 per share (as of Oct 14, 2026), against a price of kr 154.00. It is the blended result of 4 valuation models (cash flow, earnings, asset, dividend).
Is Svenska Handelsbanken AB (publ) stock overvalued or undervalued in 2026?
As of Oct 14, 2026, SHB-A trades above its calculated fair value: price kr 154.00, fair value kr 148.18, a gap of about −4% (fairly valued). The calculation is refreshed with each new quarterly report, so the verdict can change during the year.
Is fair value the same as the market price of SHB-A?
No. The price is what the market pays today (kr 154.00); the fair value is what the company's own numbers justify (kr 148.18). For Svenska Handelsbanken AB (publ) the two are kr 5.82 per share apart. That gap is exactly why we show both numbers side by side.
How much is Svenska Handelsbanken AB (publ) worth?
The market values Svenska Handelsbanken AB (publ) at about 305B SEK (market capitalisation, as of Oct 14, 2026). Per share that is kr 154.00; our models calculate a fair value of kr 148.18 per share.
What do the bullish and bearish scenarios say about SHB-A?
Our models span a range for Svenska Handelsbanken AB (publ): cautious scenario kr 111.14, base kr 148.18, optimistic kr 185.23 per share (as of Oct 14, 2026, price kr 154.00). The range comes from different growth and margin assumptions, not from analyst opinions.
What is the P/E ratio of SHB-A?
Svenska Handelsbanken AB (publ) trades at a price-to-earnings ratio of 13.0 (as of Oct 14, 2026). A P/E on its own says little: it compares the price with ONE year of profit, while our fair value of kr 148.18 is built from several models across several years. Other multiples: PEG 19.2, P/B 1.5, P/S 5.5, EV/EBITDA 41.5.
What is the PEG ratio of SHB-A?
The PEG ratio of Svenska Handelsbanken AB (publ) is 19.17 (P/E divided by earnings growth, as of Oct 14, 2026). That is above 1, so the growth is already paid for in the price.
How solid is the balance sheet of Svenska Handelsbanken AB (publ) (SHB-A)?
Balance-sheet figures for Svenska Handelsbanken AB (publ) (as of Oct 14, 2026): return on equity 12.8%, debt of 7.34 per unit of equity. They feed the Quality Score of 51/100, which measures business quality independently of the share price.
How far is SHB-A from its 52-week high?
Svenska Handelsbanken AB (publ) trades at kr 154.00, about 1% below its 52-week high of kr 156.00 and 44% above the low of kr 106.71 (as of Oct 14, 2026). Distance from the high says nothing about value: that is what the fair value of kr 148.18 is for.
Which stocks are comparable to Svenska Handelsbanken AB (publ)?
From the same area (Financial Services) we also value JPMorgan Chase & Co, Industrial and Commercial Bank of China Limited, China Construction Bank Corporation, Bank of America Corporation, among others. Each of them has its own fair-value calculation on this site using the same models, so the comparison is like for like.
Is Svenska Handelsbanken AB (publ) stock attractive at the current price?
The data as of Oct 14, 2026: price kr 154.00, calculated fair value kr 148.18 (−4%), Quality Score 51/100, from 4 models. Whether that fits your horizon and risk tolerance is your call. We provide the calculation, not investment advice.
How is the fair value of SHB-A calculated?
We run Svenska Handelsbanken AB (publ) through 4 models from four families: discounted cash flow, earnings models, asset and balance-sheet models, and dividend models. Every model gets the same audited fundamentals; the result is the weighted average of kr 148.18, with the spread shown as a cautious and an optimistic scenario.
Is it still worth investing in stocks now?
The global stock market currently sits 14.7 % above its aggregate fair value. Svenska Handelsbanken AB (publ) itself currently trades above fair value. An expensive market is no reason to stay out and no reason to buy everything at once: keep a broad savings plan running, buy single stocks only with money you can do without, and hold part of your money liquid while the market is high. The full picture including sectors is on is it worth investing now.
What is the share price of Svenska Handelsbanken AB (publ) (SHB-A)?
The closing price on Oct 14, 2026 was kr 154.00. Our model-based fair value is kr 148.18, about −4% upside (fairly valued). We carry closing prices from our data provider, not a live tick.
What should I pay attention to with Svenska Handelsbanken AB (publ) right now?
The price sits close to our fair value, market and models broadly agree here, little valuation tension. For a financial, book-value and earnings-based methods matter more than a cash-flow DCF, which fits banks and insurers poorly.
Where does the earnings growth of Svenska Handelsbanken AB (publ) (SHB-A) come from?
Earnings per share at Svenska Handelsbanken AB (publ) grew +5.9 % a year from 2014 to 2025. Broken into its drivers: revenue per share +9.5 %, EBIT margin −8.6 %, tax rate −0.2 %, residual (interest, one-offs) +6.0 %. The four rates multiply to the earnings growth rate, they do not add up. Start and end are three-year averages so a single exceptional year does not distort the result.
Key figures of Svenska Handelsbanken AB (publ)
How large is the market capitalisation of Svenska Handelsbanken AB (publ) (SHB-A)?
The market capitalisation of Svenska Handelsbanken AB (publ) is 305B SEK (≈ $30.6B). The stock-market value of the whole company: share price times number of shares. It is what the market asks for the entire business today.
What is the P/S ratio of Svenska Handelsbanken AB (publ) (SHB-A)?
The price-to-sales ratio of Svenska Handelsbanken AB (publ) is 2.15 (P/E × margin). Price to sales: market value relative to yearly revenue. Useful when profit is thin or distorted.
What are the earnings per share of Svenska Handelsbanken AB (publ) (SHB-A)?
Earnings per share at Svenska Handelsbanken AB (publ) are kr 11.97 (price ÷ EPS = P/E 13.0). Earnings per share over the last twelve months: total profit spread across every single share.
What is the dividend yield of Svenska Handelsbanken AB (publ) (SHB-A)?
The dividend yield of Svenska Handelsbanken AB (publ) is 11.4% (payout 146%). Yearly dividend relative to the share price. 3% pays 3 per 100 invested. Below: how much of profit is used for it.
What is the net margin of Svenska Handelsbanken AB (publ) (SHB-A)?
The net margin of Svenska Handelsbanken AB (publ) is 16.5% (fiscal year 2025). How much of every unit of revenue ends up as profit. 10% means 10 cents of profit per dollar of sales.
What is the return on equity of Svenska Handelsbanken AB (publ) (SHB-A)?
The return on equity (ROE) of Svenska Handelsbanken AB (publ) is 12.8% (last twelve months). Profit relative to shareholders' equity, how efficiently the company works with its owners' money.
What is the EBIT return on assets of Svenska Handelsbanken AB (publ) (SHB-A)?
On an EBIT basis the return on assets of Svenska Handelsbanken AB (publ) is 1.1% (avg 5y). Operating profit (EBIT) relative to everything the company owns, as a multi-year average. It describes the business model rather than one good or bad year.
What is the operating margin of Svenska Handelsbanken AB (publ) (SHB-A)?
The operating margin of Svenska Handelsbanken AB (publ) is 50.1% (last twelve months). Profit from the core business (before interest and taxes) relative to revenue.
How fast is revenue growing at Svenska Handelsbanken AB (publ) (SHB-A)?
Revenue at Svenska Handelsbanken AB (publ) is growing −3.8% versus a year earlier (3y avg +42.9%). How much revenue grew versus a year earlier (YoY). The 3-year average next to it puts the single year in context.
How fast are earnings growing at Svenska Handelsbanken AB (publ) (SHB-A)?
Earnings per share at Svenska Handelsbanken AB (publ) are growing −6.1% versus a year earlier. How much earnings per share grew versus a year earlier.
How much free cash flow does Svenska Handelsbanken AB (publ) (SHB-A) generate?
The free cash flow of Svenska Handelsbanken AB (publ) is −46.8B SEK (fiscal year 2025). The cash truly left after running and investing in the business, this is what pays dividends and buybacks.
How much net debt does Svenska Handelsbanken AB (publ) (SHB-A) carry?
The net debt of Svenska Handelsbanken AB (publ) is 1.3T SEK (fiscal year 2025). Debt minus cash on hand. The note shows how many years of free cash flow could in theory pay it off.
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Broad data
Oct 14, 2026