Shenguan Holdings Group Ltd (SHGXY) fair value: what the stock is really worth
As of Sep 25, 2026: fair value of Shenguan Holdings Group Ltd $0.33, price $0.40, upside -17.6%, quality 44 out of 100. Calculated from audited financials with 26 valuation models and 37 quality factors, updated daily.
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Price vs Fair Value
White line = price, green steps = our fair value per fiscal year, dashed = 300-day average. As of Sep 24, 2026.
How to read this chart
60‑month range $0.4006 – $1.18 · fair‑value band $0.2800 – $0.3800 · the $0.4006 price screens above the $0.3300 fair value. Dashed = 300-day average. As of Sep 24, 2026.
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Shenguan Holdings (Group) Limited, an investment holding company, engages in the manufacture and sale of edible collagen sausage casing products in Mainland China, Asia, and internationally.
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Shenguan Holdings (Group) Limited, an investment holding company, engages in the manufacture and sale of edible collagen sausage casing products in Mainland China, Asia, and internationally. It manufactures and sells pharmaceutical products and intermediates; collagen food products; collagen skin care products and polymer collagen medical biomaterials; collagen medical devices; and fine chemicals for human use. The company was founded in 1989 and is headquartered in Causeway Bay, Hong Kong.
Stock analysis
Shenguan Holdings Group Ltd ADR (SHGXY) currently trades at $0.4006, while our model-based Fair Value estimate is $0.3300, 17.6% below the price, so the stock looks overvalued today.
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Valuation
Bull case: the Asset-Based group reads highest at a median of $1.32 per share, and 4 of the 4 models we run sit above the $0.4006 price.
Bear case: the Multiples group reads lowest at $0.7100, and 0 of the 4 models stay below the price. Evidence for this calculation is low.
Scenario range: $0.2800 (bear) to $0.3800 (bull), the price of $0.4006 sits above it. Bear and bull are the same models on cautious and optimistic assumptions, a range, not a price target.
Quality & growth
The Quality Score stands at 44/100 (below-average quality), in the Consumer Defensive sector.
Weak Growth: Growth has flattened: the last year, three and five years all grew more slowly than the long-term average.
Shenguan Holdings Group Ltd ADR reported revenue of 995M CNY in FY2025 versus 1.2B CNY in FY2021, a compound −3.9%/yr. Reported net income was −67.9M CNY in FY2025.
Key figures
Market cap $71.9M · P/S ratio 0.07 · EPS (TTM) $−0.0700 · Net margin −6.8% · Return on equity −3.0% · Return on assets (EBIT) 0.3% · Operating margin −4.0% · Revenue (TTM) 1.0B CNY.
Competitive moat
Our AI-assisted moat analysis scores the competitive advantage at 50 out of 100 (low confidence).
What moves the price
The share trades about 39% below its 52-week high and at its 52-week low, currently below its 200-day average.
For context, the median of 10 Consumer Defensive peers we cover trades at 9% fair-value upside, at −18%, SHGXY screens richer than that median.
Fair Value models
Bear $0.2800Fair Value $0.3300Bull $0.3800
Model ⓘEach model values the company its own way (discounted cash flow, earnings, assets, dividends). The fair value above is their evidence-weighted blend, not the output of a single model.Bear ⓘBear = the cautious scenario: the same model computed with conservative anchors (lower growth, margins and valuation multiples). Together with Bull it frames a plausible valuation range, not a price target.BaseBull ⓘBull = the optimistic scenario: the same model computed with favourable anchors (higher growth, margins and valuation multiples). Together with Bear it frames a plausible valuation range, not a price target. If a model's bull case is above four times its base value, the table shows that limit with a > sign (like the overall Bull above): beyond it no assumption holds.Evidence ⓘEvidence = how well-backed THIS model's estimate is for this stock (0–100): how complete and reliable its input data are, and how well the model fits the company. The final Fair Value is an evidence-weighted blend, so better-evidenced models count more. Green ≥70, amber 50–69, grey below 50.
Growth Quality ⓘGrowth is valuable only when reinvestment earns attractive returns (Aswath Damodaran): sustainable growth depends on return on capital, reinvestment and efficiency. Basis: total company revenue over the periods shown on the cards (3Y/5Y/all years), not per share, so a merger can show up as a growth jump; per-share earnings growth is in the value-creation card.6/100
Growth has flattened: the last year, three and five years all grew more slowly than the long-term average.
Revenue growth 1 year
−2.1%
Revenue growth 3 years ⓘMeasures the company's TOTAL revenue from reported annual statements: compound average growth per year (CAGR) from the fiscal year 3, 5 or N years back to the most recent comparable fiscal year. Not per share: buybacks do not change this number, and a merger can appear as a growth jump. Per-share growth (which does include buybacks) is in the value-creation card.
−1.2%
Revenue growth 5 years ⓘMeasures the company's TOTAL revenue from reported annual statements: compound average growth per year (CAGR) from the fiscal year 3, 5 or N years back to the most recent comparable fiscal year. Not per share: buybacks do not change this number, and a merger can appear as a growth jump. Per-share growth (which does include buybacks) is in the value-creation card.
+0.7%
Start year 2020 (pandemic). Over 10 years: −0.6% a year
Revenue growth 17 years ⓘMeasures the company's TOTAL revenue from reported annual statements: compound average growth per year (CAGR) from the fiscal year 3, 5 or N years back to the most recent comparable fiscal year. Not per share: buybacks do not change this number, and a merger can appear as a growth jump. Per-share growth (which does include buybacks) is in the value-creation card.
+4.7%
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Profit margin (trend) ⓘOperating margin then vs now, from reported annual statements. A falling margin after a boom year is the classic peak-earnings signal: the growth rate then leans on an inflated base.
5.4% (2020) → −6.0% (2025)
What shareholders gained per year ⓘWe only publish this rate when it is defensible. Reason: fiscal 2025 is a loss year, no rate is defined from a loss
Compare Shenguan Holdings Group Ltd ADR with another stock
Price, fair value, quality and upside side by side.
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Peer GroupⓘHow this stock ranks against its industry: the green marker is this stock, the band is the typical 25–75% peer range, and the tick is the median.Packaged Foods · 637 stocks
Beats the industry median on 1/7 measures
Overall it trails its industry peers.
Valuation
Quality Score44 · Bottom 25%
Fair Value upside−33.3% · Below median
Profitability
Return on assets−1.3% · Bottom 25%
Net margin (TTM)−6.8% · Bottom 25%
Operating margin (TTM)−4.0% · Bottom 25%
Growth and dividend
Revenue growth2.6% · Below median
Valuation Multiplesvs Packaged Foods median · lower = cheaper
P/S (TTM)0.07× · Cheapest 25%
Strength profile in five axes (Snowflake)
This stockSector peers
VALUE (fair-value potential)0· sector 33
FUTURE (revenue growth)13· sector 20
PAST (return on equity)0· sector 30
HEALTH (low debt)0· sector 96
DIVIDEND (yield)0· sector 57
VALUE 0: the price sits above our fair-value range.
For bloggers, editors and developers: paste this into your site or blog (a “Custom HTML” block in WordPress), it shows the current fair value and links back here. Free, plain HTML, and welcome. Full data streams (CSV/JSON) at /developers.
Cite: Fair Value Calculator (2026). "Shenguan Holdings Group Ltd ADR Fair Value". https://www.fairvalue-calculator.com/stock/SHGXY
Frequently asked questions
Is Shenguan Holdings Group Ltd (SHGXY) overvalued or undervalued?
As of Sep 24, 2026, our model estimates a fair value of $0.3300 versus the last price from Sep 25, 2026 of $0.4006, about −18% upside (overvalued).
What is the fair value of SHGXY?
Our model-based fair value for Shenguan Holdings Group Ltd ADR is $0.3300 (as of Sep 24, 2026), built from audited fundamentals. Last price (from Sep 25, 2026): $0.4006.
What is the quality score of SHGXY?
Shenguan Holdings Group Ltd ADR has a Quality Score of 44/100. It measures business quality (profitability, growth, cash flow, balance-sheet strength, investment discipline, share issuance). Market factors such as price momentum and volatility do not enter the number; they are shown separately in the detail view.
What is the price target for Shenguan Holdings Group Ltd (SHGXY)?
Our model-based price target is the fair value of $0.3300 (as of Sep 24, 2026) from 4 valuation models. Cautious scenario $0.2800, optimistic scenario $0.3800. It is a calculation from audited fundamentals, not an analyst target.
What is the Shenguan Holdings Group Ltd ADR stock forecast for 2026?
Our models put fair value at $0.3300, about −18% upside versus the last price from Sep 25, 2026 of $0.4006 (overvalued). Cautious scenario $0.2800, optimistic scenario $0.3800. The calculation is refreshed regularly with new filings.
What is the revenue of Shenguan Holdings Group Ltd (SHGXY)?
Shenguan Holdings Group Ltd ADR reported trailing-twelve-month revenue of about 1.0B CNY (latest available figure, as of Sep 24, 2026).
What is the intrinsic value of Shenguan Holdings Group Ltd (SHGXY)?
Intrinsic value and fair value mean the same thing: what the business is worth on its numbers, independent of the share price. For Shenguan Holdings Group Ltd ADR it is $0.3300 per share (as of Sep 24, 2026), against a price of $0.4006. It is the blended result of 4 valuation models (cash flow, earnings, asset, dividend).
Is Shenguan Holdings Group Ltd ADR stock overvalued or undervalued in 2026?
As of Sep 24, 2026, SHGXY trades above its calculated fair value: price $0.4006, fair value $0.3300, a gap of about −18% (overvalued). The calculation is refreshed with each new quarterly report, so the verdict can change during the year.
Is fair value the same as the market price of SHGXY?
No. The price is what the market pays today ($0.4006); the fair value is what the company's own numbers justify ($0.3300). For Shenguan Holdings Group Ltd ADR the two are $0.0706 per share apart. That gap is exactly why we show both numbers side by side.
How much is Shenguan Holdings Group Ltd ADR worth?
The market values Shenguan Holdings Group Ltd ADR at about $71.9M (market capitalisation, as of Sep 24, 2026). Per share that is $0.4006; our models calculate a fair value of $0.3300 per share.
What do the bullish and bearish scenarios say about SHGXY?
Our models span a range for Shenguan Holdings Group Ltd ADR: cautious scenario $0.2800, base $0.3300, optimistic $0.3800 per share (as of Sep 24, 2026, price $0.4006). The range comes from different growth and margin assumptions, not from analyst opinions.
How solid is the balance sheet of Shenguan Holdings Group Ltd (SHGXY)?
Balance-sheet figures for Shenguan Holdings Group Ltd ADR (as of Sep 24, 2026): return on equity −3.0%. They feed the Quality Score of 44/100, which measures business quality independently of the share price.
How far is SHGXY from its 52-week high?
Shenguan Holdings Group Ltd ADR trades at $0.4006, about 39% below its 52-week high of $0.6620 and at the low of $0.4006 (as of Sep 25, 2026). Distance from the high says nothing about value: that is what the fair value of $0.3300 is for.
Which stocks are comparable to Shenguan Holdings Group Ltd ADR?
From the same area (Consumer Defensive) we also value Nestlé S.A, Danone S.A, Foshan Haitian Flavouring and Food Company, The Kraft Heinz Company, among others. Each of them has its own fair-value calculation on this site using the same models, so the comparison is like for like.
Is Shenguan Holdings Group Ltd ADR stock attractive at the current price?
The data as of Sep 24, 2026: price $0.4006, calculated fair value $0.3300 (−18%), Quality Score 44/100, from 4 models. Whether that fits your horizon and risk tolerance is your call. We provide the calculation, not investment advice.
How is the fair value of SHGXY calculated?
We run Shenguan Holdings Group Ltd ADR through 4 models from four families: discounted cash flow, earnings models, asset and balance-sheet models, and dividend models. Every model gets the same audited fundamentals; the result is the weighted average of $0.3300, with the spread shown as a cautious and an optimistic scenario.
Is it still worth investing in stocks now?
The global stock market currently sits 14.5 % above its aggregate fair value. Shenguan Holdings Group Ltd ADR itself currently trades above fair value. An expensive market is no reason to stay out and no reason to buy everything at once: keep a broad savings plan running, buy single stocks only with money you can do without, and hold part of your money liquid while the market is high. The full picture including sectors is on is it worth investing now.
What is the share price of Shenguan Holdings Group Ltd (SHGXY)?
The latest price we hold is from Sep 25, 2026 and stands at $0.4006. Our model-based fair value is $0.3300, about −18% upside (overvalued). We carry closing prices from our data provider, not a live tick.
What should I pay attention to with Shenguan Holdings Group Ltd ADR right now?
The price sits above even our optimistic bull case ($0.3800). The favourable scenario is already priced in. Weak quality (44/100) and above fair value at the same time, the margin of safety is missing on both counts. Evidence is limited here (fewer models, shorter history), so the fair value is a rougher estimate than usual.
Key figures of Shenguan Holdings Group Ltd ADR
How large is the market capitalisation of Shenguan Holdings Group Ltd (SHGXY)?
The market capitalisation of Shenguan Holdings Group Ltd ADR is $71.9M. The stock-market value of the whole company: share price times number of shares. It is what the market asks for the entire business today.
What is the P/S ratio of Shenguan Holdings Group Ltd (SHGXY)?
The price-to-sales ratio of Shenguan Holdings Group Ltd ADR is 0.07 (last twelve months). Price to sales: market value relative to yearly revenue. Useful when profit is thin or distorted.
What are the earnings per share of Shenguan Holdings Group Ltd (SHGXY)?
Earnings per share at Shenguan Holdings Group Ltd ADR are $−0.0700. Earnings per share over the last twelve months: total profit spread across every single share.
What is the net margin of Shenguan Holdings Group Ltd (SHGXY)?
The net margin of Shenguan Holdings Group Ltd ADR is −6.8% (fiscal year 2025). How much of every unit of revenue ends up as profit. 10% means 10 cents of profit per dollar of sales.
What is the return on equity of Shenguan Holdings Group Ltd (SHGXY)?
The return on equity (ROE) of Shenguan Holdings Group Ltd ADR is −3.0% (last twelve months). Profit relative to shareholders' equity, how efficiently the company works with its owners' money.
What is the EBIT return on assets of Shenguan Holdings Group Ltd (SHGXY)?
On an EBIT basis the return on assets of Shenguan Holdings Group Ltd ADR is 0.3% (avg 5y). Operating profit (EBIT) relative to everything the company owns, as a multi-year average. It describes the business model rather than one good or bad year.
What is the operating margin of Shenguan Holdings Group Ltd (SHGXY)?
The operating margin of Shenguan Holdings Group Ltd ADR is −4.0% (last twelve months). Profit from the core business (before interest and taxes) relative to revenue.
How fast is revenue growing at Shenguan Holdings Group Ltd (SHGXY)?
Revenue at Shenguan Holdings Group Ltd ADR is growing +2.6% versus a year earlier (3y avg −1.2%). How much revenue grew versus a year earlier (YoY). The 3-year average next to it puts the single year in context.
How fast are earnings growing at Shenguan Holdings Group Ltd (SHGXY)?
Earnings per share at Shenguan Holdings Group Ltd ADR are growing −41.4% versus a year earlier. How much earnings per share grew versus a year earlier.
How much free cash flow does Shenguan Holdings Group Ltd (SHGXY) generate?
The free cash flow of Shenguan Holdings Group Ltd ADR is −126M CNY (fiscal year 2025). The cash truly left after running and investing in the business, this is what pays dividends and buybacks.
How much net cash does Shenguan Holdings Group Ltd (SHGXY) hold?
Shenguan Holdings Group Ltd ADR holds more cash than debt, 150M CNY net (fiscal year 2025). The company holds more cash than debt, a safety cushion.
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Thin data
Sep 24, 2026