The J. M. Smucker Company (SJM) fair value: what the stock is really worth
As of Nov 5, 2026: fair value (intrinsic value) of The J. M. Smucker Company stock $182, price $133, upside +36.9%, quality 55 out of 100. Rating: undervalued. Calculated from audited financials with 10 of our 26 valuation models and 37 quality factors, updated daily.
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Price vs Fair Value
White line = price, green steps = our fair value per fiscal year. As of Nov 6, 2026.
How to read this chart
60‑month range $87.73 – $141.75 · fair‑value band $85.77 – $293.45 · the $133.25 price screens below the $182.36 fair value. Green steps = our fair value per fiscal year (point-in-time, no hindsight). As of Nov 6, 2026.
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The J. M. Smucker Company manufactures and markets branded food and beverage products worldwide. The company operates through four segments: U.S. Retail Coffee, U.S. Retail Frozen Handheld and Spreads, U.S. Retail Pet Foods, and Sweet Baked Snacks.
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It offers coffee, sweet baked goods, pet snacks, frozen handheld products, peanut butter, cat and dog food, fruit and specialty spreads, cookies, frozen sandwiches and snacks, hot beverages, portion control products, toppings and syrups, baking mixes and ingredients, and flour.
The company provides its products under the Folgers, Café Bustelo, Dunkin', Jif, Smucker's, Smucker's Uncrustables, Meow Mix, Milk-Bone, Pup-Peroni, Canine Carry Outs, Hostess, 1850, Robin Hood, and Five Roses brands.
The company sells its products through direct sales and brokers to food retailers, club stores, discount and dollar stores, online retailers, pet specialty stores, distributors, drug stores, military commissaries, mass merchandisers, supermarket chains, national mass retailers, convenience stores, vending channels, and foodservice distributors and operators.
The J. M. Smucker Company was founded in 1897 and is headquartered in Orrville, Ohio.
Stock analysis
The J. M. Smucker Company (SJM) currently trades at $133.25, while our model-based Fair Value estimate is $182.36, implying the stock looks roughly 27% undervalued today.
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Valuation
Bull case: the DCF Models group reads highest at a median of $79.27 per share, and 2 of the 9 models we run sit above the $133.25 price.
Bear case: the Growth DCF group reads lowest at $44.35, and 7 of the 9 models stay below the price. Data coverage for this calculation is medium.
Scenario range: $85.77 (bear) to $293.45 (bull), the price of $133.25 sits inside it. Bear and bull are the same models on cautious and optimistic assumptions, a range, not a price target.
Quality & growth
The Quality Score stands at 55/100 (solid quality), in the Consumer Defensive sector.
Mixed Growth: Revenue is growing, but margins or cash flow do not fully confirm the trend.
The J. M. Smucker Company reported revenue of $9.1B in FY2026 versus $8.0B in FY2022, a compound +3.1%/yr. Reported net income was −$139M in FY2026.
Key figures
Market cap $14.2B Large · P/E ratio 62.3 · P/S ratio 1.55 · EPS (TTM) $2.14 · Dividend yield 3.3% · Net margin 2.5% · Return on equity 3.9% · Return on assets (EBIT) 2.5%.
Competitive moat
Our AI-assisted moat analysis scores the competitive advantage at 39 out of 100 (low confidence).
What moves the price
The last reported earnings sit well below what analysts expect (earnings in transition, for example after write-downs or an earnings dip); whether the stock is cheap or expensive hinges on the expected recovery actually arriving. Read the fair value with that caveat.
The share trades at its 52-week high and 52% above its 52-week low, currently above its 200-day average.
For context, the median of 10 Consumer Defensive peers we cover trades at −3% fair-value upside, at 37%, SJM screens cheaper than that median.
Fair Value models
Bear$85.77Fair Value $182.36Bull$293.45
Price $133.25 · Upside +36.9%
Model ⓘEach model values the company its own way (discounted cash flow, earnings, assets, dividends). The fair value above starts from their evidence-weighted blend, not from a single model. In cyclical trough or peak years, after dilution or a stock split it is adjusted afterwards, so it can sit above or below the models.Bear ⓘBear = the cautious scenario: the same model computed with conservative anchors (lower growth, margins and valuation multiples). Together with Bull it frames a plausible valuation range, not a price target.BaseBull ⓘBull = the optimistic scenario: the same model computed with favourable anchors (higher growth, margins and valuation multiples). Together with Bear it frames a plausible valuation range, not a price target. If a model's bull case is above four times its base value, the table shows that limit with a > sign (like the overall Bull above): beyond it no assumption holds.Coverage ⓘCoverage = how well-backed THIS model's estimate is for this stock (0–100): how complete and reliable its input data are, and how well the model fits the company. The final Fair Value is an evidence-weighted blend, so better-evidenced models count more. Green ≥70, amber 50–69, grey below 50.
Best data coverage
FCF DCF$115.72$233.90$436.8976
Growth DCF$119.32$224.00$392.4175
Owner Earningsn/a$19.17$73.5073
All 10 models by family
DCF Models
FCF DCF$115.72$233.90$436.8976
Owner Earningsn/a$19.17$73.5073
5Y Revenue Exit$16.50$42.01$72.1069
5Y EBITDA Exit$47.65$101.31$163.0373
10Y Revenue Exit$46.93$79.27$119.1266
10Y EBITDA Exit$68.81$122.62$192.7167
Multiples
EV/EBITn/an/a$5.8461
EV/EBITDA$17.90$45.81$73.7162
Growth DCF
Growth DCF$119.32$224.00$392.4175
Rev-Margin DCF$16.50$44.35$78.0069
The fair value above starts from this blend and is adjusted for a year distorted by one-off effects.
In the last 6 months, 5 officers or directors sold shares worth $17.5M and none bought.
SaleMark T SmuckerCEO, Chair of Board, Director3× since Mar 10, 2026: 98,284 shares, avg. $129.13$12.7MAug 31, 2026
SaleRobert D FergusonChief Product Supply Officer2,522 shares at $132.41$333,938Aug 31, 2026
SaleTucker H MarshallChief Financial Officer2× since Jun 24, 2026: 22,112 shares, avg. $128.60$2.8MAug 28, 2026
SaleJill R PenroseChief People Officer5,000 shares at $116.70$583,500Jun 29, 2026
SaleJeannette L KnudsenChief Legal Officer2× since Jun 11, 2026: 9,903 shares, avg. $115.76$1.1MJun 26, 2026
BuyTarang AminDirector880 shares at $113.41$99,801Mar 2, 2026
Plus 16 other filings such as grants, option exercises or tax withholding. They are not market purchases or sales.
Sales are often planned (taxes, diversification, 10b5-1 plans). Purchases with their own money are seen as the stronger sign. For information only: not part of the quality score or Fair Value.
Growth Quality ⓘGrowth is valuable only when reinvestment earns attractive returns (Aswath Damodaran): sustainable growth depends on return on capital, reinvestment and efficiency. Basis: total company revenue over the periods shown on the cards (3Y/5Y/all years), not per share, so a merger can show up as a growth jump; per-share earnings growth is in the value-creation card.54/100
Revenue is growing, but margins or cash flow do not fully confirm the trend.
Revenue growth 1 year
+3.7%
Revenue growth 3 years ⓘMeasures the company's TOTAL revenue from reported annual statements: compound average growth per year (CAGR) from the fiscal year 3, 5 or N years back to the most recent comparable fiscal year. Not per share: buybacks do not change this number, and a merger can appear as a growth jump. Per-share growth (which does include buybacks) is in the value-creation card.
+2.0%
Revenue growth 5 years ⓘMeasures the company's TOTAL revenue from reported annual statements: compound average growth per year (CAGR) from the fiscal year 3, 5 or N years back to the most recent comparable fiscal year. Not per share: buybacks do not change this number, and a merger can appear as a growth jump. Per-share growth (which does include buybacks) is in the value-creation card.
+2.5%
Start year 2021 (pandemic). Over 10 years: +1.5% a year
Revenue growth 40 years ⓘMeasures the company's TOTAL revenue from reported annual statements: compound average growth per year (CAGR) from the fiscal year 3, 5 or N years back to the most recent comparable fiscal year. Not per share: buybacks do not change this number, and a merger can appear as a growth jump. Per-share growth (which does include buybacks) is in the value-creation card.
+9.3%
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Profit margin (trend) ⓘOperating margin then vs now, from reported annual statements. A falling margin after a boom year is the classic peak-earnings signal: the growth rate then leans on an inflated base.
17.3% (2021) → 4.0% (2026)
What shareholders gained per year ⓘWe only publish this rate when it is defensible. Reason: fiscal 2026 is a loss year, no rate is defined from a loss
not computed
Growth Forecast
Price in line with expectations
The price assumes about as much growth as the company has delivered so far and about what analysts expect.
What the price assumes ⓘThis turns our valuation around: instead of asking what the share is worth, it asks what growth the current price requires. It uses the cash the company keeps after all spending (free cash flow), the same discount rate as our models, five years of growth, then slowing evenly to 2 % a year by year ten. Compared with the analysts' sales forecasts extended to the same five years (at least three analysts, for context only, it does not enter the Fair Value): within 3 percentage points counts as "in line" (amber), below that little optimism (green), above that a lot of optimism (red).
+3.5%
Yearly growth needed for the next five years to justify today's price.
What forecasts expect ⓘAnalysts publish sales forecasts for the next two fiscal years. For the years after that, growth slows evenly to 2 % a year by year ten (2 % is the long-run rate our models use). Projected years are marked as such.
+0.8%
Yearly sales growth analysts expect, extended to five years.
After inflation (USA: IMF forecast 2.4% a year to 2030, 3.1% from 2016 to 2025) that is about +1.1% a year for the price and −1.5% for the forecasts.
News mood ⓘNews mood, the average tone of recent news (100 articles), rated against how stocks are usually covered. 🚀 Hype = unusually upbeat · 🙂 Positive = above average · 😐 Neutral = typical · 🙁 Negative = below average · 😨 Very negative = unusually downbeat. It reflects the tone of coverage, not our valuation.Positive
Recent news coverage is more positive than average.
AI conclusion: Limited durable moat amid sector competition forms the main weakness while recent leadership consolidation and AI focus provide the primary strength in driving efficiency.
Main risk: Retailers such as Trader Joe's could offer copycat crustless peanut butter and jelly sandwiches that mimic Uncrustables packaging and design, eroding branded volumes and margins in the frozen handheld category.
Bull case: Smucker could leverage its new chief technology officer and AI initiatives to accelerate product innovation and supply chain efficiencies that strengthen differentiation against private label alternatives.
Bear case: If private label copycats and retailer concentration intensify, Smucker might lose significant shelf space and pricing leverage in core categories such as Uncrustables and coffee, compressing margins over time.
Our models currently see the company as undervalued. Smucker recently eliminated its COO role, consolidated executive responsibilities, and created a chief technology officer position to advance artificial intelligence across operations and products. The moves aim to sharpen efficiency in coffee, pet food, and Uncrustables while pursuing tech-driven improvements. Will these leadership and AI steps generate real volume growth in packaged foods, or will they mainly deliver incremental cost savings?
Compare The J. M. Smucker Company with another stock
Price, fair value, quality and upside side by side.
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Peer GroupⓘHow this stock ranks against its industry: the green marker is this stock, the band is the typical 25–75% peer range, and the tick is the median.Packaged Foods · 629 stocks
Beats the industry median on 6/14 measures
A mixed picture versus its industry peers.
Valuation
Quality Score55 · Above median
Fair Value upside+36.9% · Above median
Profitability
Return on equity (12 months)3.9% · Below median
Return on assets−0.9% · Bottom 25%
Net margin (12 months)2.5% · Below median
Operating margin (12 months)17.9% · Top 25%
Growth and dividend
Revenue growth (quarter YoY)5.0% · Above median
Dividend yield (12 months)3.3% · Above median
Balance sheet
Debt / equity1.15× · Highest 25%
Valuation Multiplesvs Packaged Foods median · lower = cheaper
P/E (12 months)62.3× · Priciest 25%
P/B2.56× · book value is mostly goodwill ⓘGoodwill and other intangible assets are larger than the equity. The book value mainly reflects prices paid for past acquisitions, so we do not rank this P/B against the peer group.
For bloggers, editors and developers: paste this into your site or blog (a “Custom HTML” block in WordPress), it shows the current fair value and links back here. Free, plain HTML, and welcome. Full data streams (CSV/JSON) at /developers.
Cite: Fair Value Calculator (2026). "The J. M. Smucker Company Fair Value". https://www.fairvalue-calculator.com/stock/SJM
Frequently asked questions
Is The J. M. Smucker Company (SJM) overvalued or undervalued?
As of Nov 6, 2026, our model estimates a fair value of $182.36 versus a price of $133.25, about +37% upside (undervalued).
What is the fair value of SJM?
Our model-based fair value for The J. M. Smucker Company is $182.36 (as of Nov 6, 2026), built from audited fundamentals. The current price: $133.25.
What is the quality score of SJM?
The J. M. Smucker Company has a Quality Score of 55/100. It measures business quality (profitability, growth, cash flow, balance-sheet strength, investment discipline, share issuance). Market factors such as price momentum and volatility do not enter the number; they are shown separately in the detail view.
What is the price target for The J. M. Smucker Company (SJM)?
Our model-based price target is the fair value of $182.36 (as of Nov 6, 2026) from 10 valuation models. Cautious scenario $85.77, optimistic scenario $293.45. It is a calculation from audited fundamentals, not an analyst target.
What is the The J. M. Smucker Company stock forecast for 2026?
Our models put fair value at $182.36, about +37% upside versus a price of $133.25 (undervalued). Cautious scenario $85.77, optimistic scenario $293.45. The calculation is refreshed regularly with new filings.
What is the revenue of The J. M. Smucker Company (SJM)?
The J. M. Smucker Company reported trailing-twelve-month revenue of about $9.2B (latest available figure, as of Nov 6, 2026).
Does The J. M. Smucker Company pay a dividend?
The J. M. Smucker Company currently shows a dividend yield of 3.32% relative to its recent price (as of Nov 6, 2026).
What growth is priced into The J. M. Smucker Company (SJM)?
For today's price to be fair in a discounted-cash-flow model, The J. M. Smucker Company would have to grow free cash flow by +3.5 % per year for five years (discount rate 8.1 %, then slowing evenly to 2 % perpetual growth by year ten). Over the last 5 years revenue grew +2.5 % per year. As of Nov 6, 2026.
What discount rate (WACC) does the fair value of SJM use?
Our models discount The J. M. Smucker Company at 8.1 %: a base by market capitalisation (large), damped by beta 0.27, country premium for USA. The same rate applies in all 26 models.
What is a reverse DCF?
A reverse DCF turns the usual calculation around. Instead of deriving a value from assumptions, it takes today's price as given and asks: what free-cash-flow growth would a company have to deliver for exactly this price to be fair? The result is not a forecast but the expectation already priced in. For The J. M. Smucker Company that is +3.5 % per year a year over ten years, using the same discount rate (8.1 %) and the same formula as our fair value.
How much growth has The J. M. Smucker Company (SJM) delivered so far?
Over the past 5 years revenue at The J. M. Smucker Company grew +2.5 % a year. The price currently implies +3.5 % per year free-cash-flow growth a year. Comparing the two shows how much confidence is in the price: if it demands more than has been delivered, the business has to accelerate for the maths to work.
How fast is the sector of The J. M. Smucker Company (SJM) growing?
The median revenue growth in the sector is +3.6 % a year. That is the yardstick for the growth priced into The J. M. Smucker Company (+3.5 % per year a year): it shows whether the expectation is within the usual range or beyond it.
What is the free cash flow yield of The J. M. Smucker Company (SJM)?
The free-cash-flow yield on the price is 8.13 %: that much free cash flow The J. M. Smucker Company produces per unit of market value. When it exceeds the discount rate of our models (8.1 %), the business already earns more than its cost of capital demands, and the price needs little additional growth.
What is the intrinsic value of The J. M. Smucker Company (SJM)?
Intrinsic value and fair value mean the same thing: what the business is worth on its numbers, independent of the share price. For The J. M. Smucker Company it is $182.36 per share (as of Nov 6, 2026), against a price of $133.25. It is the blended result of 10 valuation models (cash flow, earnings, asset, dividend).
Is The J. M. Smucker Company stock overvalued or undervalued in 2026?
As of Nov 6, 2026, SJM trades below its calculated fair value: price $133.25, fair value $182.36, a gap of about +37% (undervalued). The calculation is refreshed with each new quarterly report, so the verdict can change during the year.
Is fair value the same as the market price of SJM?
No. The price is what the market pays today ($133.25); the fair value is what the company's own numbers justify ($182.36). For The J. M. Smucker Company the two are $49.11 per share apart. That gap is exactly why we show both numbers side by side.
How much is The J. M. Smucker Company worth?
The market values The J. M. Smucker Company at about $14.2B (market capitalisation, as of Nov 6, 2026). Per share that is $133.25; our models calculate a fair value of $182.36 per share.
What do the bullish and bearish scenarios say about SJM?
Our models span a range for The J. M. Smucker Company: cautious scenario $85.77, base $182.36, optimistic $293.45 per share (as of Nov 6, 2026, price $133.25). The range comes from different growth and margin assumptions, not from analyst opinions.
What is the P/E ratio of SJM?
The J. M. Smucker Company trades at a price-to-earnings ratio of 62.3 (as of Nov 6, 2026). A P/E on its own says little: it compares the price with ONE year of profit, while our fair value of $182.36 is built from several models across several years. Median P/E at fiscal year-end, 7 fiscal years (2017 to 2024), reported earnings: 16.8. Other multiples: PEG 1.7, P/B 2.6, P/S 1.6, EV/EBITDA 9.1.
What is the PEG ratio of SJM?
The PEG ratio of The J. M. Smucker Company is 1.68 (P/E divided by earnings growth, as of Nov 6, 2026). That is above 1, so the growth is already paid for in the price.
How solid is the balance sheet of The J. M. Smucker Company (SJM)?
Balance-sheet figures for The J. M. Smucker Company (as of Nov 6, 2026): return on equity 3.9%, debt of 1.15 per unit of equity. They feed the Quality Score of 55/100, which measures business quality independently of the share price.
How far is SJM from its 52-week high?
The J. M. Smucker Company trades at $133.25, at its 52-week high of $133.39 and 52% above the low of $87.73 (as of Nov 5, 2026). Distance from the high says nothing about value: that is what the fair value of $182.36 is for.
Which stocks are comparable to The J. M. Smucker Company?
From the same area (Consumer Defensive) we also value Nestlé S.A, Danone S.A, Foshan Haitian Flavouring and Food Company, The Kraft Heinz Company, among others. Each of them has its own fair-value calculation on this site using the same models, so the comparison is like for like.
Is The J. M. Smucker Company stock attractive at the current price?
The data as of Nov 6, 2026: price $133.25, calculated fair value $182.36 (+37%), Quality Score 55/100, from 10 models. Whether that fits your horizon and risk tolerance is your call. We provide the calculation, not investment advice.
How is the fair value of SJM calculated?
We run The J. M. Smucker Company through 10 models from four families: discounted cash flow, earnings models, asset and balance-sheet models, and dividend models. Every model gets the same audited fundamentals; the result is the weighted average of $182.36, with the spread shown as a cautious and an optimistic scenario.
Is it still worth investing in stocks now?
The global stock market currently sits 15.5% above its aggregate fair value. The J. M. Smucker Company currently trades 27% below its own fair value, and the market average says nothing about that. An expensive market is no reason to stay out and no reason to buy everything at once: keep a broad savings plan running, buy single stocks only with money you can do without, and hold part of your money liquid while the market is high. The full picture including sectors is on is it worth investing now.
What is the share price of The J. M. Smucker Company (SJM)?
The closing price on Nov 5, 2026 was $133.25. Our model-based fair value is $182.36, about +37% upside (undervalued). We carry closing prices from our data provider, not a live tick.
What should I pay attention to with The J. M. Smucker Company right now?
The model range is unusually wide ($85.77 to $293.45). The outcome hinges heavily on assumptions, so read the point estimate with caution. Solid quality (55/100) at a price below fair value, the discount is the argument here, not the business quality.
Key figures of The J. M. Smucker Company
How large is the market capitalisation of The J. M. Smucker Company (SJM)?
The market capitalisation of The J. M. Smucker Company is $14.2B. The stock-market value of the whole company: share price times number of shares. It is what the market asks for the entire business today.
What is the P/S ratio of The J. M. Smucker Company (SJM)?
The price-to-sales ratio of The J. M. Smucker Company is 1.55 (last twelve months). Price to sales: market value relative to yearly revenue. Useful when profit is thin or distorted.
What are the earnings per share of The J. M. Smucker Company (SJM)?
Earnings per share at The J. M. Smucker Company are $2.14 (price ÷ EPS = P/E 62.3). Earnings per share over the last twelve months: total profit spread across every single share.
What is the dividend yield of The J. M. Smucker Company (SJM)?
The dividend yield of The J. M. Smucker Company is 3.3%. Yearly dividend relative to the share price. 3% pays 3 per 100 invested. Below: how much of profit is used for it.
What is the net margin of The J. M. Smucker Company (SJM)?
The net margin of The J. M. Smucker Company is 2.5% (last twelve months). How much of every unit of revenue ends up as profit. 10% means 10 cents of profit per dollar of sales.
What is the return on equity of The J. M. Smucker Company (SJM)?
The return on equity (ROE) of The J. M. Smucker Company is 3.9% (last twelve months). Profit relative to shareholders' equity, how efficiently the company works with its owners' money.
What is the EBIT return on assets of The J. M. Smucker Company (SJM)?
On an EBIT basis the return on assets of The J. M. Smucker Company is 2.5% (avg 5y). Operating profit (EBIT) relative to everything the company owns, as a multi-year average. It describes the business model rather than one good or bad year.
What is the operating margin of The J. M. Smucker Company (SJM)?
The operating margin of The J. M. Smucker Company is 17.9% (last twelve months). Profit from the core business (before interest and taxes) relative to revenue.
How fast is revenue growing at The J. M. Smucker Company (SJM)?
Revenue at The J. M. Smucker Company is growing +5.0% versus a year earlier (3y avg +2.0%). How much revenue grew versus a year earlier (YoY). The 3-year average next to it puts the single year in context.
How fast are earnings growing at The J. M. Smucker Company (SJM)?
Earnings per share at The J. M. Smucker Company are growing −2.6% versus a year earlier. How much earnings per share grew versus a year earlier.
How much net debt does The J. M. Smucker Company (SJM) carry?
The net debt of The J. M. Smucker Company is $7.0B (fiscal year 2026, ≈ 6.1 yrs of FCF). Debt minus cash on hand. The note shows how many years of free cash flow could in theory pay it off.
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Nov 6, 2026