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SMA Solar Technology AG (SMTGF) fair value: what the stock is really worth
As of Oct 2, 2026: fair value of SMA Solar Technology AG $61.83, price $66.95, upside -7.7%, quality 52 out of 100. Calculated from audited financials with 26 valuation models and 37 quality factors, updated daily.
- Fair value above price? No
- Good quality? Yes
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Some data
Sep 24, 2026
Some data
Sep 24, 2026
SMA Solar Technology AG
SMTGF · USNeutralThe stock looks roughly fairly valued with average quality.
·Fair value $61.83 · Fairly valued (−7.7%)
!Quality 52/100
!Mixed Growth (revenue 5y +8.1 %/yr)
!Loss-making · -12.3% net margin (TTM)
✓Low debt · generates free cash flow
!Narrow moat 20/100
!Evidence only medium, so the estimate is less certain
What runs behind every stock
26
valuation models
8 families, DCF to NCAV
37
quality factors
margins, balance sheet, cashflow, debt
6
AI factors
moat, what no ratio measures
2,000+
data points
verified, per stock, median
69 individual criteria per stock, every one traceable See the method →
Price vs Fair Value
White line = price, green steps = our fair value per fiscal year, dashed = 300-day average. As of Sep 24, 2026.
How to read this chart
60‑month range $12.73 – $115.59 · fair‑value band $43.80 – $79.56 · the $66.95 price screens above the $61.83 fair value. Green steps = our fair value per fiscal year (point-in-time, no hindsight). 2 fiscal years are left out: there the valuation rested on only a fraction of the usual models. Dashed = 300-day average. As of Sep 24, 2026.
Company profile
SMA Solar Technology AG, together with its subsidiaries, develops, produces, and sells PV and battery inverters, monitoring systems for PV systems, and charging solutions for electric vehicles in Germany and internationally. The company operates in two segments: Home & Business Solutions and Large Scale & Project Solutions.
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SMA Solar Technology AG, together with its subsidiaries, develops, produces, and sells PV and battery inverters, monitoring systems for PV systems, and charging solutions for electric vehicles in Germany and internationally. The company operates in two segments: Home & Business Solutions and Large Scale & Project Solutions. It offers solar and battery inverters, hybrid inverters, system solutions and packages, solar batteries, e-mobility charging solutions, energy management solutions, SMA echarger and commercial storage solutions, and Sunny Tripower X, as well as digital solutions to design, operate, and service PV systems and energy systems. The company serves electric utility companies, independent power producers, project developers and institutional investors, EPCs, system integrators, and grid operators, as well as energy-intensive industries. The company was formerly known as SMA Technologie AG and changed its name to SMA Solar Technology AG in June 2008. SMA Solar Technology AG was founded in 1981 and is headquartered in Niestetal, Germany.
Stock analysis
SMA Solar Technology AG (SMTGF) currently trades at $66.95, while our model-based Fair Value estimate is $61.83, so the stock looks roughly fairly valued today (gap 8.3%).
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Valuation
Bull case: the DCF Models group reads highest at a median of $60.03 per share, and 0 of the 9 models we run sit above the $66.95 price.
Bear case: the Dividend Discount group reads lowest at $6.22, and 9 of the 9 models stay below the price. Evidence for this calculation is medium.
Scenario range: $43.80 (bear) to $79.56 (bull), the price of $66.95 sits inside it. Bear and bull are the same models on cautious and optimistic assumptions, a range, not a price target.
Quality & growth
The Quality Score stands at 52/100 (solid quality), in the Technology sector.
Mixed Growth: Revenue is growing, but margins or cash flow do not fully confirm the trend.
SMA Solar Technology AG reported revenue of €1.5B in FY2025 versus €983M in FY2021, a compound +11.4%/yr. Reported net income was −€181M in FY2025.
Key figures
Market cap $2.3B · P/S ratio 1.28 · EPS (TTM) $−6.23 · Net margin −11.9% · Return on equity −40.8% · Return on assets (EBIT) −1.0% · Operating margin 3.9% · Revenue (TTM) €1.5B.
Competitive moat
Our AI-assisted moat analysis scores the competitive advantage at 38 out of 100 (medium confidence).
What moves the price
The share trades about 17% below its 52-week high and 203% above its 52-week low, currently above its 200-day average.
For context, the median of 10 Technology peers we cover trades at 10% fair-value upside, at −8%, SMTGF screens richer than that median.
Fair Value models
Bear $43.80
Fair Value $61.83
Bull $79.56
Model ⓘEach model values the company its own way (discounted cash flow, earnings, assets, dividends). The fair value above is their evidence-weighted blend, not the output of a single model.
Bear ⓘBear = the cautious scenario: the same model computed with conservative anchors (lower growth, margins and valuation multiples). Together with Bull it frames a plausible valuation range, not a price target.BaseBull ⓘBull = the optimistic scenario: the same model computed with favourable anchors (higher growth, margins and valuation multiples). Together with Bear it frames a plausible valuation range, not a price target. If a model's bull case is above four times its base value, the table shows that limit with a > sign (like the overall Bull above): beyond it no assumption holds.
Evidence ⓘEvidence = how well-backed THIS model's estimate is for this stock (0–100): how complete and reliable its input data are, and how well the model fits the company. The final Fair Value is an evidence-weighted blend, so better-evidenced models count more. Green ≥70, amber 50–69, grey below 50.
Highest evidence
FCF DCF
$45.47
$60.03
$78.27
82
Growth DCF
$46.09
$59.22
$74.90
80
5Y Revenue Exit
$42.45
$60.14
$81.83
73
All 9 models by family
DCF Models
FCF DCF
$45.47
$60.03
$78.27
82
5Y Revenue Exit
$42.45
$60.14
$81.83
73
10Y Revenue Exit
$42.42
$57.57
$76.22
68
Dividend Discount
Gordon GGM
$4.37
$7.21
$10.17
68
DDM Multi-Stage
$4.37
$6.22
$7.96
67
Multiples
EV/Revenue
$42.67
$58.63
$74.59
54
Asset-Based
NCAV (Graham)
$5.93
$7.94
$11.85
54
Growth DCF
Growth DCF
$46.09
$59.22
$74.90
80
Rev-Margin DCF
$42.45
$60.66
$80.52
73
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Set up alert →Quality Score breakdown
Overall quality
52/100
Of which business quality 53 · Market factors (momentum, volatility) 66
Profitability
21
Margins and returns on capital today
Quality Growth
25
Are margins and returns improving?
Cashflow
58
Earnings quality: real cash, not paper profit
Fin. Strength
60
Balance sheet, leverage, solvency risk
Investment
91
Disciplined investing over empire-building
Low Volatility
38
Calm price path (market factor)
Momentum
72
Price trend over the last 3–12 months (market factor)
52W Momentum
88
Distance to the 52-week high (market factor)
Net Issuance
82
Share count: buybacks or dilution?
Revenue & earnings trend
Growth Quality ⓘGrowth is valuable only when reinvestment earns attractive returns (Aswath Damodaran): sustainable growth depends on return on capital, reinvestment and efficiency. Basis: total company revenue over the periods shown on the cards (3Y/5Y/all years), not per share, so a merger can show up as a growth jump; per-share earnings growth is in the value-creation card.
47/100
Revenue is growing, but margins or cash flow do not fully confirm the trend.
Revenue growth 1 year
−1.0%
Revenue growth 3 years ⓘMeasures the company's TOTAL revenue from reported annual statements: compound average growth per year (CAGR) from the fiscal year 3, 5 or N years back to the most recent comparable fiscal year. Not per share: buybacks do not change this number, and a merger can appear as a growth jump. Per-share growth (which does include buybacks) is in the value-creation card.
+12.4%
Revenue growth 5 years ⓘMeasures the company's TOTAL revenue from reported annual statements: compound average growth per year (CAGR) from the fiscal year 3, 5 or N years back to the most recent comparable fiscal year. Not per share: buybacks do not change this number, and a merger can appear as a growth jump. Per-share growth (which does include buybacks) is in the value-creation card.
+8.1%
Start year 2020 (pandemic). Over 10 years: +4.2% a year
Revenue growth 19 years ⓘMeasures the company's TOTAL revenue from reported annual statements: compound average growth per year (CAGR) from the fiscal year 3, 5 or N years back to the most recent comparable fiscal year. Not per share: buybacks do not change this number, and a merger can appear as a growth jump. Per-share growth (which does include buybacks) is in the value-creation card.
+11.5%
’14
’15
’16
’17
’18
’19
’20
’21
’22
’23
’24
’25
Profit margin (trend) ⓘOperating margin then vs now, from reported annual statements. A falling margin after a boom year is the classic peak-earnings signal: the growth rate then leans on an inflated base.
2.7% (2020) → −13.1% (2025)
What shareholders gained per year ⓘWe only publish this rate when it is defensible. Reason: fiscal 2025 is a loss year, no rate is defined from a loss
not computed
Growth Forecast
Price in line with expectations
The price assumes about as much growth as the company has delivered so far and about what analysts expect.
What the price assumes ⓘThis turns our valuation around: instead of asking what the share is worth, it asks what growth the current price requires. It uses the cash the company keeps after all spending (free cash flow), the same discount rate as our models, five years of growth, then slowing evenly to 2 % a year by year ten. Compared with the analysts' sales forecasts extended to the same five years (at least three analysts, for context only, it does not enter the Fair Value): within 3 percentage points counts as "in line" (amber), below that little optimism (green), above that a lot of optimism (red).
+6.6%
Yearly growth needed for the next five years to justify today's price.
What forecasts expect ⓘAnalysts publish sales forecasts for the next two fiscal years. For the years after that, growth slows evenly to 2 % a year by year ten (2 % is the long-run rate our models use). Projected years are marked as such.
+4.8%
Yearly sales growth analysts expect, extended to five years.
After inflation (figures in EUR, euro area: IMF forecast 2.2% a year to 2030, 2.6% from 2016 to 2025) that is about +4.3% a year for the price and +2.5% for the forecasts.
Forecast 2026 (sales)+6.7%
Forecast 2027 (sales)+4.8%
Projected 2028 (sales)+4.5%
Projected 2029 (sales)+4.1%
Projected 2030 (sales)+3.8%
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Context: sector, industry, market
- P/E, EV/EBITDA and margins by industry (reference tables)
- Undervalued stocks: US Stocks
- Valuation of the USA market
Values & ESG
Does this company touch areas you may want to avoid? The classification is inferred from sector and industry.
None of the checked exposures detected
Similar stocks
10 more Solar stocks, each showing price versus our Fair Value estimate.
| Stock | Price | Fair Value | vs Fair Value |
|---|---|---|---|
| First Solar, Inc FSLR | $176.93 | $392.06 | +122% |
| Nextpower Inc NXT | $80.85 | $88.94 | +10% |
| Tongwei Co 600438 | ¥11.12 | ¥12.13 | +9% |
| Waaree Energies Limited WAAREEENER | ₹2,340 | ₹2,709 | +16% |
| Jinko Solar Co 688223 | ¥3.75 | ¥6.49 | +73% |
| Hanwha Solutions Corporation 009830 | 29,200 KRW | 9,611 KRW | −67% |
| Hengdian Group 002056 | ¥20.04 | ¥31.86 | +59% |
| CSI Solar Co 688472 | ¥8.32 | ¥4.88 | −41% |
| Enphase Energy, Inc ENPH | $30.91 | $24.08 | −22% |
| Premier Energies Limited PREMIERENE | ₹896.40 | ₹648.72 | −28% |
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Frequently asked questions
Is SMA Solar Technology AG (SMTGF) overvalued or undervalued?
As of Sep 24, 2026, our model estimates a fair value of $61.83 versus a price of $66.95, about −8% upside (fairly valued).
What is the fair value of SMTGF?
Our model-based fair value for SMA Solar Technology AG is $61.83 (as of Sep 24, 2026), built from audited fundamentals. The current price: $66.95.
What is the quality score of SMTGF?
SMA Solar Technology AG has a Quality Score of 52/100. It measures business quality (profitability, growth, cash flow, balance-sheet strength, investment discipline, share issuance). Market factors such as price momentum and volatility do not enter the number; they are shown separately in the detail view.
What is the price target for SMA Solar Technology AG (SMTGF)?
Our model-based price target is the fair value of $61.83 (as of Sep 24, 2026) from 9 valuation models. Cautious scenario $43.80, optimistic scenario $79.56. It is a calculation from audited fundamentals, not an analyst target.
What is the SMA Solar Technology AG stock forecast for 2026?
Our models put fair value at $61.83, about −8% upside versus a price of $66.95 (fairly valued). Cautious scenario $43.80, optimistic scenario $79.56. The calculation is refreshed regularly with new filings.
What is the revenue of SMA Solar Technology AG (SMTGF)?
SMA Solar Technology AG reported trailing-twelve-month revenue of about €1.5B (latest available figure, as of Sep 24, 2026).
What growth is priced into SMA Solar Technology AG (SMTGF)?
For today's price to be fair in a discounted-cash-flow model, SMA Solar Technology AG would have to grow free cash flow by +6.6 % per year for five years (discount rate 10.7 %, then slowing evenly to 2 % perpetual growth by year ten). Over the last 5 years revenue grew +8.1 % per year. As of Sep 24, 2026.
What discount rate (WACC) does the fair value of SMTGF use?
Our models discount SMA Solar Technology AG at 10.7 %: a base by market capitalisation (small), damped by beta 0.81, country premium for USA. The same rate applies in all 26 models.
What is a reverse DCF?
A reverse DCF turns the usual calculation around. Instead of deriving a value from assumptions, it takes today's price as given and asks: what free-cash-flow growth would a company have to deliver for exactly this price to be fair? The result is not a forecast but the expectation already priced in. For SMA Solar Technology AG that is +6.6 % per year a year over ten years, using the same discount rate (10.7 %) and the same formula as our fair value.
How much growth has SMA Solar Technology AG (SMTGF) delivered so far?
Over the past 5 years revenue at SMA Solar Technology AG grew +8.1 % a year. The price currently implies +6.6 % per year free-cash-flow growth a year. Comparing the two shows how much confidence is in the price: if it demands more than has been delivered, the business has to accelerate for the maths to work.
How fast is the sector of SMA Solar Technology AG (SMTGF) growing?
The median revenue growth in the sector is +10.0 % a year. That is the yardstick for the growth priced into SMA Solar Technology AG (+6.6 % per year a year): it shows whether the expectation is within the usual range or beyond it.
What is the free cash flow yield of SMA Solar Technology AG (SMTGF)?
The free-cash-flow yield on the price is 6.11 %: that much free cash flow SMA Solar Technology AG produces per unit of market value. When it exceeds the discount rate of our models (10.7 %), the business already earns more than its cost of capital demands, and the price needs little additional growth.
What is the intrinsic value of SMA Solar Technology AG (SMTGF)?
Intrinsic value and fair value mean the same thing: what the business is worth on its numbers, independent of the share price. For SMA Solar Technology AG it is $61.83 per share (as of Sep 24, 2026), against a price of $66.95. It is the blended result of 9 valuation models (cash flow, earnings, asset, dividend).
Is SMA Solar Technology AG stock overvalued or undervalued in 2026?
As of Sep 24, 2026, SMTGF trades above its calculated fair value: price $66.95, fair value $61.83, a gap of about −8% (fairly valued). The calculation is refreshed with each new quarterly report, so the verdict can change during the year.
Is fair value the same as the market price of SMTGF?
No. The price is what the market pays today ($66.95); the fair value is what the company's own numbers justify ($61.83). For SMA Solar Technology AG the two are $5.12 per share apart. That gap is exactly why we show both numbers side by side.
How much is SMA Solar Technology AG worth?
The market values SMA Solar Technology AG at about $2.3B (market capitalisation, as of Sep 24, 2026). Per share that is $66.95; our models calculate a fair value of $61.83 per share.
What do the bullish and bearish scenarios say about SMTGF?
Our models span a range for SMA Solar Technology AG: cautious scenario $43.80, base $61.83, optimistic $79.56 per share (as of Sep 24, 2026, price $66.95). The range comes from different growth and margin assumptions, not from analyst opinions.
How far is SMTGF from its 52-week high?
SMA Solar Technology AG trades at $66.95, about 17% below its 52-week high of $80.90 and 203% above the low of $22.06 (as of Oct 2, 2026). Distance from the high says nothing about value: that is what the fair value of $61.83 is for.
Which stocks are comparable to SMA Solar Technology AG?
From the same area (Technology) we also value First Solar, Inc, Nextpower Inc, Tongwei Co, Waaree Energies Limited, among others. Each of them has its own fair-value calculation on this site using the same models, so the comparison is like for like.
Is SMA Solar Technology AG stock attractive at the current price?
The data as of Sep 24, 2026: price $66.95, calculated fair value $61.83 (−8%), Quality Score 52/100, from 9 models. Whether that fits your horizon and risk tolerance is your call. We provide the calculation, not investment advice.
How is the fair value of SMTGF calculated?
We run SMA Solar Technology AG through 9 models from four families: discounted cash flow, earnings models, asset and balance-sheet models, and dividend models. Every model gets the same audited fundamentals; the result is the weighted average of $61.83, with the spread shown as a cautious and an optimistic scenario.
Is it still worth investing in stocks now?
The global stock market currently sits 14.5 % above its aggregate fair value. SMA Solar Technology AG itself currently trades above fair value. An expensive market is no reason to stay out and no reason to buy everything at once: keep a broad savings plan running, buy single stocks only with money you can do without, and hold part of your money liquid while the market is high. The full picture including sectors is on is it worth investing now.
What is the share price of SMA Solar Technology AG (SMTGF)?
The closing price on Oct 2, 2026 was $66.95. Our model-based fair value is $61.83, about −8% upside (fairly valued). We carry closing prices from our data provider, not a live tick.
What should I pay attention to with SMA Solar Technology AG right now?
The price sits close to our fair value, market and models broadly agree here, little valuation tension. A fairly wide model range ($43.80 to $79.56) leaves room in how you read the outcome.
Key figures of SMA Solar Technology AG
How large is the market capitalisation of SMA Solar Technology AG (SMTGF)?
The market capitalisation of SMA Solar Technology AG is $2.3B. The stock-market value of the whole company: share price times number of shares. It is what the market asks for the entire business today.
What is the P/S ratio of SMA Solar Technology AG (SMTGF)?
The price-to-sales ratio of SMA Solar Technology AG is 1.28 (last twelve months). Price to sales: market value relative to yearly revenue. Useful when profit is thin or distorted.
What are the earnings per share of SMA Solar Technology AG (SMTGF)?
Earnings per share at SMA Solar Technology AG are $−6.23. Earnings per share over the last twelve months: total profit spread across every single share.
What is the net margin of SMA Solar Technology AG (SMTGF)?
The net margin of SMA Solar Technology AG is −11.9% (fiscal year 2025). How much of every unit of revenue ends up as profit. 10% means 10 cents of profit per dollar of sales.
What is the return on equity of SMA Solar Technology AG (SMTGF)?
The return on equity (ROE) of SMA Solar Technology AG is −40.8% (last twelve months). Profit relative to shareholders' equity, how efficiently the company works with its owners' money.
What is the EBIT return on assets of SMA Solar Technology AG (SMTGF)?
On an EBIT basis the return on assets of SMA Solar Technology AG is −1.0% (avg 5y). Operating profit (EBIT) relative to everything the company owns, as a multi-year average. It describes the business model rather than one good or bad year.
What is the operating margin of SMA Solar Technology AG (SMTGF)?
The operating margin of SMA Solar Technology AG is 3.9% (last twelve months). Profit from the core business (before interest and taxes) relative to revenue.
How fast is revenue growing at SMA Solar Technology AG (SMTGF)?
Revenue at SMA Solar Technology AG is growing +4.0% versus a year earlier (3y avg +12.4%). How much revenue grew versus a year earlier (YoY). The 3-year average next to it puts the single year in context.
How fast are earnings growing at SMA Solar Technology AG (SMTGF)?
Earnings per share at SMA Solar Technology AG are growing −80.6% versus a year earlier. How much earnings per share grew versus a year earlier.
How much net cash does SMA Solar Technology AG (SMTGF) hold?
SMA Solar Technology AG holds more cash than debt, €50.7M net (fiscal year 2025). The company holds more cash than debt, a safety cushion.
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