Smart Sand Inc (SND) fair value: what the stock is really worth
As of Nov 5, 2026: fair value (intrinsic value) of Smart Sand Inc stock $6.56, price $3.91, upside +67.8%, quality 57 out of 100. Rating: strongly undervalued. Calculated from audited financials with 19 of our 26 valuation models and 37 quality factors, updated daily.
Keep an eye on it?Free in your watchlist: 5 stocks without an account, 10 with oneYes, for free
69 individual criteria per stock, every one traceableSee the method →
Price vs Fair Value
White line = price, green steps = our fair value per fiscal year. As of Nov 5, 2026.
How to read this chart
60‑month range $1.18 – $5.70 · fair‑value band $6.14 – $7.16 · the $3.91 price screens below the $6.56 fair value. Green steps = our fair value per fiscal year (point-in-time, no hindsight). As of Nov 5, 2026.
Follow Smart Sand in your weekly email
Every Wednesday you see whether Smart Sand is on track or worth a review, plus price against fair value. Free, up to 3 stocks.
We send you a confirmation link. Unsubscribe with one click.
Smart Sand, Inc., a fully integrated frac and industrial sand supply and services company, provides mine to wellsite proppant supply and logistics solutions to its frac sand customers in the United States and Canada. The company operates in two segments, Sand and SmartSystems.
Show moreShow less
The Sand segment offers frac sand and industrial products solutions. The SmartSystems segment rents its patented SmartSystems equipment and offers related services, as well as provides portable wellsite storage and management solutions.
The company engages in the excavation, processing, and sale of sand or proppant for use in hydraulic fracturing operations.
The company markets its products and services to oil and natural gas exploration and production companies, oilfield service companies, and diversified industrial and commercial customers. Smart Sand, Inc. was incorporated in 2011 and is headquartered in Yardley, Pennsylvania.
Stock analysis
Smart Sand Inc (SND) currently trades at $3.91, while our model-based Fair Value estimate is $6.56, implying the stock looks roughly 40% undervalued today.
Show more
Valuation
Bull case: the Growth DCF group reads highest at a median of $15.41 per share, and 8 of the 19 models we run sit above the $3.91 price.
Bear case: the Earnings-Based group reads lowest at $0.6800, and 11 of the 19 models stay below the price. Data coverage for this calculation is medium.
Scenario range: $6.14 (bear) to $7.16 (bull), the price of $3.91 sits below it. Bear and bull are the same models on cautious and optimistic assumptions, a range, not a price target.
Quality & growth
The Quality Score stands at 57/100 (solid quality), in the Energy sector.
Mixed Growth: Revenue is growing, but margins or cash flow do not fully confirm the trend.
Smart Sand Inc reported revenue of $330M in FY2025 versus $127M in FY2021, a compound +27.1%/yr. Reported net income was $1.3M in FY2025.
Key figures
Market cap $168M Micro · P/E ratio 15.0 · P/S ratio 0.43 · EPS (TTM) $0.2600 · Dividend yield 2.8% · Net margin 2.7% · Return on equity 4.4% · Return on assets (EBIT) −3.8%.
Competitive moat
Our AI-assisted moat analysis scores the competitive advantage at 28 out of 100 (medium confidence).
What moves the price
The share trades about 31% below its 52-week high and 98% above its 52-week low, currently below its 200-day average.
For context, the median of 10 Energy peers we cover trades at −30% fair-value upside, at 68%, SND screens cheaper than that median.
Fair Value models
Bear$6.14Fair Value $6.56Bull$7.16
Price $3.91 · Upside +67.8%
Model ⓘEach model values the company its own way (discounted cash flow, earnings, assets, dividends). The fair value above starts from their evidence-weighted blend, not from a single model. In cyclical trough or peak years, after dilution or a stock split it is adjusted afterwards, so it can sit above or below the models. Based on fiscal year 2025 figures (about 10 months old). Earnings retained since then ($0.2208 per share) are deliberately not added.Bear ⓘBear = the cautious scenario: the same model computed with conservative anchors (lower growth, margins and valuation multiples). Together with Bull it frames a plausible valuation range, not a price target.BaseBull ⓘBull = the optimistic scenario: the same model computed with favourable anchors (higher growth, margins and valuation multiples). Together with Bear it frames a plausible valuation range, not a price target. If a model's bull case is above four times its base value, the table shows that limit with a > sign (like the overall Bull above): beyond it no assumption holds.Coverage ⓘCoverage = how well-backed THIS model's estimate is for this stock (0–100): how complete and reliable its input data are, and how well the model fits the company. The final Fair Value is an evidence-weighted blend, so better-evidenced models count more. Green ≥70, amber 50–69, grey below 50.
Best data coverage
FCF DCF$10.57$15.66$29.8177
Growth DCF$9.98$16.60$28.2576
Residual Income$3.07$3.28$3.5876
All 19 models by family
DCF Models
FCF DCF$10.57$15.66$29.8177
5Y Revenue Exit$8.24$14.06$25.4970
5Y P/E Exit$3.90$5.25$6.6372
10Y Revenue Exit$8.70$16.30$23.6766
10Y P/E Exit$6.13$8.62$12.0464
Earnings-Based
Graham-Dodd$0.2200$1.50$2.1163
Lynch FV$0.4800$0.6800$0.880061
PEG = 1.0$0.4800$0.6800$0.880057
Dividend Discount
Gordon GGM$1.07$1.91$2.6068
DDM Multi-Stage$1.07$1.75$2.0467
Multiples
P/E Multiple$0.3300$0.4400$0.560063
P/S Multiple$0.4000$0.5400$0.670058
P/B Multiple$1.65$2.20$2.7555
EV/Revenue$6.22$9.02$11.8353
Asset-Based
NCAV (Graham)$2.78$3.72$5.5554
Growth DCF
Growth DCF$9.98$16.60$28.2576
Rev-Margin DCF$8.24$15.41$26.2870
Economic Profit
Residual Income$3.07$3.28$3.5876
Growth Earnings
Growth-Adj P/E$0.5500$0.7800$1.0267
The fair value above starts from this blend and is adjusted for a cyclical trough year.
In the last 6 months, one officer or director bought shares worth $19,998, on May 29, 2026. Over the same period, 4 people sold shares worth $1.0M.
SaleJames Douglas YoungOfficer2× since Aug 18, 2026: 75,000 shares, avg. $4.85$363,706Aug 24, 2026
SaleLee E BeckelmanChief Financial Officer50,000 shares at $4.79$239,500Aug 19, 2026
SaleSharon SpurlinDirector2× since May 26, 2026: 67,700 shares, avg. $4.97$336,170Aug 17, 2026
SaleChristopher M. GreenVice President of Accounting13,874 shares at $5.06$70,202Aug 14, 2026
BuyRonald P WhelanOfficer2× since Nov 26, 2025: 12,102 shares, avg. $3.50$42,383May 29, 2026
SaleTimothy PawlentyDirector27,975 shares at $3.66$102,389Mar 11, 2026
SaleFrancis Michael PorcelliDirector2× since Mar 4, 2026: 375,000 shares, avg. $3.96$1.5MMar 10, 2026
Plus 19 other filings such as grants, option exercises or tax withholding. They are not market purchases or sales.
Sales are often planned (taxes, diversification, 10b5-1 plans). Purchases with their own money are seen as the stronger sign. For information only: not part of the quality score or Fair Value.
Growth Quality ⓘGrowth is valuable only when reinvestment earns attractive returns (Aswath Damodaran): sustainable growth depends on return on capital, reinvestment and efficiency. Basis: total company revenue over the periods shown on the cards (3Y/5Y/all years), not per share, so a merger can show up as a growth jump; per-share earnings growth is in the value-creation card.90/100
Revenue is growing, but margins or cash flow do not fully confirm the trend.
Revenue growth 1 year
+6.0%
Revenue growth 3 years ⓘMeasures the company's TOTAL revenue from reported annual statements: compound average growth per year (CAGR) from the fiscal year 3, 5 or N years back to the most recent comparable fiscal year. Not per share: buybacks do not change this number, and a merger can appear as a growth jump. Per-share growth (which does include buybacks) is in the value-creation card.
+8.9%
Revenue growth 5 years ⓘMeasures the company's TOTAL revenue from reported annual statements: compound average growth per year (CAGR) from the fiscal year 3, 5 or N years back to the most recent comparable fiscal year. Not per share: buybacks do not change this number, and a merger can appear as a growth jump. Per-share growth (which does include buybacks) is in the value-creation card.
+22.0%
Start year 2020 (pandemic)
’14
’15
’16
’17
’18
’19
’20
’21
’22
’23
’24
’25
What shareholders gained per year (last 5 years) ⓘWhat the business itself delivers per year: earnings growth per share plus the dividend yield. This is what you get IF the market keeps valuing the stock the same way: it contains no assumption about the market changing its mind. Computed per share, so buybacks count and a merger does not pass as growth. For a company that pays no dividend it is pure earnings growth per share. Period: earnings growth per share as CAGR over the last 5 reported fiscal years (annual statements), plus the current dividend yield. The start value is the median of the three years around the start, so a single crisis year (a pandemic or a write-down) does not distort the rate.
−44.8%
Earnings growth per share plus dividend.
Earnings per share, growth per year−47.6%
Dividend (yield on the price)2.8%
Pace: 5 vs 10 years ⓘTwo data points, not a trend model: earnings growth per share over the last 5 fiscal years against the last 10. Labelled "steady" when both rates are within 3 percentage points of each other, otherwise picking up or flattening. Shown only when ten years of history exist.−47.6% vs −20.7%, slowing
Profit margin 2020 to 2025 ⓘOperating margin then vs now, from reported annual statements. A falling margin after a boom year is the classic peak-earnings signal: the growth rate then leans on an inflated base.−11% → −2%
Pace: the 5-year rate starts in 2020 (pandemic)
Growth Forecast
Little optimism in the price
The price assumes less growth than the company has delivered so far.
What the price assumes ⓘThis turns our valuation around: instead of asking what the share is worth, it asks what growth the current price requires. It uses the cash the company keeps after all spending (free cash flow), the same discount rate as our models, five years of growth, then slowing evenly to 2 % a year by year ten. Compared with the analysts' sales forecasts extended to the same five years (at least three analysts, for context only, it does not enter the Fair Value): within 3 percentage points counts as "in line" (amber), below that little optimism (green), above that a lot of optimism (red).
−14.2%
The company could shrink this much every year for the next five years and today's price would still be justified.
What forecasts expect
n/a
No analyst forecast available.
After inflation (USA: IMF forecast 2.4% a year to 2030, 3.1% from 2016 to 2025) that is about −16.2% a year for the price.
Price, fair value, quality and upside side by side.
Free, no sign-up
Peer GroupⓘHow this stock ranks against its industry: the green marker is this stock, the band is the typical 25–75% peer range, and the tick is the median.Oil & Gas Equipment & Services · 166 stocks
Beats the industry median on 12/15 measures
Overall it ranks above its industry peers.
Valuation
Quality Score57 · Above median
Fair Value upside+67.8% · Top 25%
Profitability
Return on equity (12 months)4.4% · Below median
Return on assets0.4% · Below median
Net margin (12 months)2.7% · Below median
Operating margin (12 months)8.6% · Above median
Growth and dividend
Revenue growth (quarter YoY)34.1% · Top 25%
Dividend yield (12 months)2.8% · Above median
Balance sheet
Debt / equity0.04× · Below median
Valuation Multiplesvs Oil & Gas Equipment & Services median · lower = cheaper
For bloggers, editors and developers: paste this into your site or blog (a “Custom HTML” block in WordPress), it shows the current fair value and links back here. Free, plain HTML, and welcome. Full data streams (CSV/JSON) at /developers.
Is Smart Sand Inc (SND) overvalued or undervalued?
As of Nov 5, 2026, our model estimates a fair value of $6.56 versus a price of $3.91, about +68% upside (undervalued).
What is the fair value of SND?
Our model-based fair value for Smart Sand Inc is $6.56 (as of Nov 5, 2026), built from audited fundamentals. The current price: $3.91.
What is the quality score of SND?
Smart Sand Inc has a Quality Score of 57/100. It measures business quality (profitability, growth, cash flow, balance-sheet strength, investment discipline, share issuance). Market factors such as price momentum and volatility do not enter the number; they are shown separately in the detail view.
What is the price target for Smart Sand Inc (SND)?
Our model-based price target is the fair value of $6.56 (as of Nov 5, 2026) from 19 valuation models. Cautious scenario $6.14, optimistic scenario $7.16. It is a calculation from audited fundamentals, not an analyst target.
What is the Smart Sand Inc stock forecast for 2026?
Our models put fair value at $6.56, about +68% upside versus a price of $3.91 (undervalued). Cautious scenario $6.14, optimistic scenario $7.16. The calculation is refreshed regularly with new filings.
What is the revenue of Smart Sand Inc (SND)?
Smart Sand Inc reported trailing-twelve-month revenue of about $387M (latest available figure, as of Nov 5, 2026).
Does Smart Sand Inc pay a dividend?
Smart Sand Inc currently shows a dividend yield of 2.83% relative to its recent price (as of Nov 5, 2026).
What growth is priced into Smart Sand Inc (SND)?
For today's price to be fair in a discounted-cash-flow model, Smart Sand Inc would have to grow free cash flow by -14.2 % per year for five years (discount rate 11.2 %, then slowing evenly to 2 % perpetual growth by year ten). Over the last 5 years revenue grew +22.0 % per year. As of Nov 5, 2026.
What discount rate (WACC) does the fair value of SND use?
Our models discount Smart Sand Inc at 11.2 %: a base by market capitalisation (micro), damped by beta 0.36, country premium for USA. The same rate applies in all 26 models.
What is a reverse DCF?
A reverse DCF turns the usual calculation around. Instead of deriving a value from assumptions, it takes today's price as given and asks: what free-cash-flow growth would a company have to deliver for exactly this price to be fair? The result is not a forecast but the expectation already priced in. For Smart Sand Inc that is -14.2 % per year a year over ten years, using the same discount rate (11.2 %) and the same formula as our fair value.
How much growth has Smart Sand Inc (SND) delivered so far?
Over the past 5 years revenue at Smart Sand Inc grew +22.0 % a year. The price currently implies -14.2 % per year free-cash-flow growth a year. Comparing the two shows how much confidence is in the price: if it demands more than has been delivered, the business has to accelerate for the maths to work.
How fast is the sector of Smart Sand Inc (SND) growing?
The median revenue growth in the sector is +14.1 % a year. That is the yardstick for the growth priced into Smart Sand Inc (-14.2 % per year a year): it shows whether the expectation is within the usual range or beyond it.
What is the free cash flow yield of Smart Sand Inc (SND)?
The free-cash-flow yield on the price is 20.10 %: that much free cash flow Smart Sand Inc produces per unit of market value. When it exceeds the discount rate of our models (11.2 %), the business already earns more than its cost of capital demands, and the price needs little additional growth.
What is the intrinsic value of Smart Sand Inc (SND)?
Intrinsic value and fair value mean the same thing: what the business is worth on its numbers, independent of the share price. For Smart Sand Inc it is $6.56 per share (as of Nov 5, 2026), against a price of $3.91. It is the blended result of 19 valuation models (cash flow, earnings, asset, dividend).
Is Smart Sand Inc stock overvalued or undervalued in 2026?
As of Nov 5, 2026, SND trades below its calculated fair value: price $3.91, fair value $6.56, a gap of about +68% (undervalued). The calculation is refreshed with each new quarterly report, so the verdict can change during the year.
Is fair value the same as the market price of SND?
No. The price is what the market pays today ($3.91); the fair value is what the company's own numbers justify ($6.56). For Smart Sand Inc the two are $2.65 per share apart. That gap is exactly why we show both numbers side by side.
How much is Smart Sand Inc worth?
The market values Smart Sand Inc at about $168M (market capitalisation, as of Nov 5, 2026). Per share that is $3.91; our models calculate a fair value of $6.56 per share.
What do the bullish and bearish scenarios say about SND?
Our models span a range for Smart Sand Inc: cautious scenario $6.14, base $6.56, optimistic $7.16 per share (as of Nov 5, 2026, price $3.91). The range comes from different growth and margin assumptions, not from analyst opinions.
What is the P/E ratio of SND?
Smart Sand Inc trades at a price-to-earnings ratio of 15.0 (as of Nov 5, 2026). A P/E on its own says little: it compares the price with ONE year of profit, while our fair value of $6.56 is built from several models across several years. Median P/E at fiscal year-end, 8 fiscal years (2016 to 2025), reported earnings: 16.2. Other multiples: PEG 0.9, P/B 0.7, P/S 0.4, EV/EBITDA 4.1.
What is the PEG ratio of SND?
The PEG ratio of Smart Sand Inc is 0.86 (P/E divided by earnings growth, as of Nov 5, 2026). That is below 1, so growth is priced more cheaply than the earnings multiple alone suggests.
How solid is the balance sheet of Smart Sand Inc (SND)?
Balance-sheet figures for Smart Sand Inc (as of Nov 5, 2026): return on equity 4.4%, debt of 0.04 per unit of equity. They feed the Quality Score of 57/100, which measures business quality independently of the share price.
How far is SND from its 52-week high?
Smart Sand Inc trades at $3.91, about 31% below its 52-week high of $5.70 and 98% above the low of $1.97 (as of Nov 5, 2026). Distance from the high says nothing about value: that is what the fair value of $6.56 is for.
Which stocks are comparable to Smart Sand Inc?
From the same area (Energy) we also value SLB N.V, Baker Hughes Company, Tenaris S.A, Halliburton Company, among others. Each of them has its own fair-value calculation on this site using the same models, so the comparison is like for like.
Is Smart Sand Inc stock attractive at the current price?
The data as of Nov 5, 2026: price $3.91, calculated fair value $6.56 (+68%), Quality Score 57/100, from 19 models. Whether that fits your horizon and risk tolerance is your call. We provide the calculation, not investment advice.
How is the fair value of SND calculated?
We run Smart Sand Inc through 19 models from four families: discounted cash flow, earnings models, asset and balance-sheet models, and dividend models. Every model gets the same audited fundamentals; the result is the weighted average of $6.56, with the spread shown as a cautious and an optimistic scenario.
Is it still worth investing in stocks now?
The global stock market currently sits 15.5% above its aggregate fair value. Smart Sand Inc currently trades 40% below its own fair value, and the market average says nothing about that. An expensive market is no reason to stay out and no reason to buy everything at once: keep a broad savings plan running, buy single stocks only with money you can do without, and hold part of your money liquid while the market is high. The full picture including sectors is on is it worth investing now.
What is the share price of Smart Sand Inc (SND)?
The closing price on Nov 5, 2026 was $3.91. Our model-based fair value is $6.56, about +68% upside (undervalued). We carry closing prices from our data provider, not a live tick.
What should I pay attention to with Smart Sand Inc right now?
The price is below even our cautious bear case ($6.14). The market is more pessimistic than our downside scenario. Solid quality (57/100) at a price below fair value, the discount is the argument here, not the business quality.
Key figures of Smart Sand Inc
How large is the market capitalisation of Smart Sand Inc (SND)?
The market capitalisation of Smart Sand Inc is $168M. The stock-market value of the whole company: share price times number of shares. It is what the market asks for the entire business today.
What is the P/S ratio of Smart Sand Inc (SND)?
The price-to-sales ratio of Smart Sand Inc is 0.43 (last twelve months). Price to sales: market value relative to yearly revenue. Useful when profit is thin or distorted.
What are the earnings per share of Smart Sand Inc (SND)?
Earnings per share at Smart Sand Inc are $0.2600 (price ÷ EPS = P/E 15.0). Earnings per share over the last twelve months: total profit spread across every single share.
What is the dividend yield of Smart Sand Inc (SND)?
The dividend yield of Smart Sand Inc is 2.8% (payout 42.6%). Yearly dividend relative to the share price. 3% pays 3 per 100 invested. Below: how much of profit is used for it.
What is the net margin of Smart Sand Inc (SND)?
The net margin of Smart Sand Inc is 2.7% (last twelve months). How much of every unit of revenue ends up as profit. 10% means 10 cents of profit per dollar of sales.
What is the return on equity of Smart Sand Inc (SND)?
The return on equity (ROE) of Smart Sand Inc is 4.4% (last twelve months). Profit relative to shareholders' equity, how efficiently the company works with its owners' money.
What is the EBIT return on assets of Smart Sand Inc (SND)?
On an EBIT basis the return on assets of Smart Sand Inc is −3.8% (avg 5y). Operating profit (EBIT) relative to everything the company owns, as a multi-year average. It describes the business model rather than one good or bad year.
What is the operating margin of Smart Sand Inc (SND)?
The operating margin of Smart Sand Inc is 8.6% (last twelve months). Profit from the core business (before interest and taxes) relative to revenue.
How fast is revenue growing at Smart Sand Inc (SND)?
Revenue at Smart Sand Inc is growing +34.1% versus a year earlier (3y avg +8.9%). How much revenue grew versus a year earlier (YoY). The 3-year average next to it puts the single year in context.
How fast are earnings growing at Smart Sand Inc (SND)?
Earnings per share at Smart Sand Inc are growing −53.7% versus a year earlier. How much earnings per share grew versus a year earlier.
How much net debt does Smart Sand Inc (SND) carry?
The net debt of Smart Sand Inc is $13.6M (fiscal year 2025, ≈ 0.4 yrs of FCF). Debt minus cash on hand. The note shows how many years of free cash flow could in theory pay it off.
Free · no account needed
Watch Smart Sand Inc in the live analysis
One click puts Smart Sand Inc on your watchlist: fair value and trend at a glance, plus comparison, the diversification check and the 27,000+ stock screener.
Some data
Nov 5, 2026