Spire Global, Inc (SPIR) Fair Value & Analysis
Industrials · US · Market cap $687M
Spire Global, Inc
SPIR · US
Fair value as of: Jul 19, 2026
From 10 valuation models · updated 22 days ago
Share price −11.8% over the past month.
Below-average quality, and screening another 22% overvalued on our models.
What matters now
- Weak quality (36/100) and above fair value at the same time, the margin of safety is missing on both counts.
- The model range is unusually wide ($8.37 to $23.73). The outcome hinges heavily on assumptions, so read the point estimate with caution.
Price vs Fair Value (5 years)
White line = price, green steps = our fair value per fiscal year, dashed = 300-day average. As of Jul 19, 2026.
How to read this chart
60‑month range $3.34 – $147.60 · fair‑value band $8.37 – $23.73 · the $14.33 price screens above the $11.16 fair value. Green steps = our fair value per fiscal year (point-in-time, no hindsight). Dashed = 300-day average. As of Jul 19, 2026.
Analysis
Spire Global, Inc (SPIR) currently trades at $14.33, while our model-based Fair Value estimate is $11.16, implying the stock looks roughly 22.1% overvalued today. The Quality Score stands at 36/100 (below-average quality), in the Industrials sector. Bear case: priced above our estimate, the market already discounts strong expectations. Bull case: above-average quality can justify a premium, the entry price still matters most (evidence: medium).
Over the trailing twelve months, Spire Global, Inc generated revenue of $63.5M at a net margin of 77.1%. Revenue declined 33.7% year over year. It earns a return on equity of 101.2%. The balance sheet holds a net cash position of $11.4M. Fundamentals as of Jul 19, 2026
Our scenario range runs from $8.37 (bear case) to $23.73 (bull case); at $14.33, the current price sits within that range. Bear and bull are the same models run on conservative and optimistic assumptions (margins, growth, valuation multiples), so a plausible valuation range, not a price target. The share trades about 45% below its 52-week high and 117% above its 52-week low, currently above its 200-day average. For context, the median of 10 Industrials peers we cover trades at -35% fair-value upside, at -22%, SPIR screens cheaper than that median.
Fair Value models
Each model estimates fair value its own way; the Fair Value above is the evidence-weighted blend. Evidence (0–100) measures how completely this model’s inputs are available: well-fed models carry more weight in the blend. The spread across models is intentional, each one stresses a different value driver; dividend models, for instance, come out structurally low when payout is small.
All 10 models by family
Widest divergence: Growth Earnings ($26.91) versus Asset-Based ($1.95). Highest evidence: Growth-Adj P/E (68).
Key figures & financial health
More key figures
Figures from reported company fundamentals · as of Jul 19, 2026. TTM = trailing twelve months.
Quality Score breakdown
Of which business quality 37 · Market factors (momentum, volatility) 44
Non-valuation factor families (profitability, growth, cashflow, financial strength, momentum …), each academically grounded. Valuation itself sits in the Fair Value and is deliberately excluded here to avoid double-counting.
About the company
Spire Global, Inc. provides subscription-based data, insights, predictive analytics, and related project-based services in the Americas, Europe, the Middle East, Africa, and the Asia Pacific.
Full company description
Spire Global, Inc. provides subscription-based data, insights, predictive analytics, and related project-based services in the Americas, Europe, the Middle East, Africa, and the Asia Pacific. The company offers Space Reconnaissance service, a mission-critical insights support defense, intelligence, and national security operations; Aviation service, a satellite-based aircraft tracking data to power applications; Weather and Climate, a space-based data, AI-powered insights, and predictive weather analytics; and Space Services solutions includes space-as-a- service, which delivers and develops infrastructure, including ground station network and cloud infrastructure to access spaces. It serves government, logistics, operations, insurance, energy, agriculture, and financial industries. It has strategic partnership with Schaeffler AG to develop space hardware subsystems, satellite platforms, and advanced radiofrequency (RF) and environmental sensing capabilities. The company was formerly known as Nanosatisfi, Inc. and changed its name to Spire Global, Inc. in July 2014. Spire Global, Inc. was founded in 2012 and is headquartered in Vienna, Virginia.
Company description, as reported by the company or data provider.
Revenue & earnings trend
FY2021 – FY2025 · reported fiscal years
Spire Global, Inc reported revenue of $71.6M in FY2025 versus $43.4M in FY2021, a compound +13.3%/yr. Reported net income was $51.3M in FY2025.
SPIR screens 22% overvalued. Compare with Cintas Corporation →
Earlier news
External third-party headlines (Yahoo Finance, Reuters and others), not an editorial selection.
- Spire Global Hits Major Milestone With Successful 10-Satellite Launch. How You Should Play SPIR Stock Here.
- Spire Global deploys ten satellites on SpaceX’s Transporter-17 rideshare
Peer Group
Specialty Business Services · 255 stocks
How this stock ranks against its industry: the green marker is this stock, the band is the typical 25–75% peer range, and the tick is the median.
Valuation Multiples vs Specialty Business Services median · lower = cheaper
Snowflake
Five quick dimensions, each 0 to 100: VALUE (fair-value potential), FUTURE (revenue growth), PAST (return on equity), HEALTH (low debt), DIVIDEND (yield). Green = this stock, grey = typical sector peer.
Insider activity: 40/100
Values & ESG
Does this company touch areas you may want to avoid? The classification is inferred from sector and industry.
ESG scores are not available for this stock yet. Values and ESG data are contextual and can differ between providers.
Similar stocks
10 more Specialty Business Services stocks, each showing price versus our Fair Value estimate (as of Jul 19, 2026).
| Stock | Price | Fair Value | vs Fair Value |
|---|---|---|---|
| Cintas Corporation CTAS | $206.25 | $95.30 | -54% |
| RELX PLC RELX | $33.70 | $32.49 | -4% |
| Thomson Reuters Corporation TRI | C$133.87 | C$70.40 | -47% |
| Copart, Inc CPRT | $27.61 | $28.59 | +4% |
| Global Payments Inc GPN | $80.49 | $69.67 | -13% |
| RB Global, Inc RBA | C$156.43 | C$49.14 | -69% |
| Brambles Limited BXB | A$18.79 | A$12.28 | -35% |
| UL Solutions Inc ULS | $87.76 | $33.62 | -62% |
| Wolters Kluwer N.V WKL | €62.56 | €103.99 | +66% |
| Aramark ARMK | $56.74 | $13.73 | -76% |
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Frequently asked questions
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How we calculate Fair Value
Each company is valued through a stack of independent intrinsic-value models (DCF variants, residual-income, multiples and more), blended into one family-balanced consensus and weighted by how much trustworthy data backs it. A separate quality layer scores the fundamentals. Every input is real reported data, nothing guessed.
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