Spotify Technology S.A (SPOT) Fair Value & Analysis
Communication Services · US · Market cap $99.8B
Spotify Technology S.A
SPOT · US
Fair value as of: Jul 16, 2026
From 26 valuation models · updated 22 days ago
Fair value updated Jul 16, 2026, revised from $182.88 to $209.56 (+14.6%) since Jun 24, 2026. Share price −3.8% over the past month.
A solid business, but screening 56% overvalued on our models.
What matters now
- The price sits above even our optimistic bull case ($430.42). The favourable scenario is already priced in.
- The model range is unusually wide ($157.17 to $430.42). The outcome hinges heavily on assumptions, so read the point estimate with caution.
- Solid but not exceptional quality (55/100) and above fair value, neither a clear bargain nor a standout compounder.
Price vs Fair Value (5 years)
White line = price, green steps = our fair value per fiscal year, dashed = 300-day average. As of Jul 16, 2026.
How to read this chart
60‑month range $71.05 – $775.90 · fair‑value band $157.17 – $430.42 · the $475.07 price screens above the $209.56 fair value. Green steps = our fair value per fiscal year (point-in-time, no hindsight). Dashed = 300-day average. As of Jul 16, 2026.
Analysis
Spotify Technology S.A (SPOT) currently trades at $475.07, while our model-based Fair Value estimate is $209.56, implying the stock looks roughly 55.9% overvalued today. We read business quality at 55/100 (solid quality), in the Communication Services sector. Bear case: priced above our estimate, the market already discounts strong expectations. Bull case: above-average quality can justify a premium, the entry price still matters most (evidence: high).
Over the trailing twelve months, Spotify Technology S.A generated revenue of $17.5B at a net margin of 15.5%. Revenue grew 8.2% year over year. It earns a return on equity of 38.0%. The balance sheet holds a net cash position of $2.9B. Fundamentals as of Jul 16, 2026
Our scenario range runs from $157.17 (bear case) to $430.42 (bull case); at $475.07, the current price sits above that range. Bear and bull are the same models run on conservative and optimistic assumptions (margins, growth, valuation multiples), so a plausible valuation range, not a price target. The share trades about 39% below its 52-week high and 17% above its 52-week low, currently below its 200-day average. For context, the median of 10 Communication Services peers we cover trades at 2% fair-value upside, at -56%, SPOT screens richer than that median.
Fair Value models
Each model estimates fair value its own way; the Fair Value above is the evidence-weighted blend. Evidence (0–100) measures how completely this model’s inputs are available: well-fed models carry more weight in the blend. The spread across models is intentional, each one stresses a different value driver; dividend models, for instance, come out structurally low when payout is small.
All 26 models by family
Widest divergence: DCF Models ($309.23) versus Dividend Discount ($3.31). Highest evidence: Growth DCF (80).
Key figures & financial health
More key figures
Figures from reported company fundamentals · as of Jul 16, 2026. TTM = trailing twelve months.
Quality Score breakdown
Of which business quality 71 · Market factors (momentum, volatility) 26
Non-valuation factor families (profitability, growth, cashflow, financial strength, momentum …), each academically grounded. Valuation itself sits in the Fair Value and is deliberately excluded here to avoid double-counting.
About the company
Spotify Technology S.A., together with its subsidiaries, provides audio streaming subscription services worldwide. It operates in two segments, Premium and Ad-Supported.
Full company description
Spotify Technology S.A., together with its subsidiaries, provides audio streaming subscription services worldwide. It operates in two segments, Premium and Ad-Supported. The Premium segment offers online and offline streaming access to its catalog of music and podcasts, including video, lossless music, and audiobooks in select markets through subscription offerings primarily sold directly to end users and partners. The Ad-Supported segment provides limited on-demand online access to its catalog of music and online and offline access to its catalog of podcasts on computers, tablets, mobile devices, and other smart devices. The company also offers sales, distribution and marketing, contract research and development, and customer and other support services. Spotify Technology S.A. was incorporated in 2006 and is headquartered in Stockholm, Sweden.
Company description, as reported by the company or data provider.
Revenue & earnings trend
FY2021 – FY2025 · reported fiscal years
Spotify Technology S.A reported revenue of $17.2B in FY2025 versus $9.7B in FY2021, a compound +15.5%/yr. Reported net income was $2.2B in FY2025.
SPOT screens 56% overvalued. Compare with Alphabet Inc →
Recent news
External third-party headlines (Yahoo Finance, Reuters and others), not an editorial selection.
- Spotify tops 300 million premium subscribers as profit surges
- Spotify stock sinks as streaming giant's monthly active users forecast misses estimates
- Weaker outlook on users, profit sends Spotify shares lower
- Spotify Stock Drops After Earnings Despite Subscribers Surging
Peer Group
Internet Content & Information · 150 stocks
How this stock ranks against its industry: the green marker is this stock, the band is the typical 25–75% peer range, and the tick is the median.
Valuation Multiples vs Internet Content & Information median · lower = cheaper
Snowflake
Five quick dimensions, each 0 to 100: VALUE (fair-value potential), FUTURE (revenue growth), PAST (return on equity), HEALTH (low debt), DIVIDEND (yield). Green = this stock, grey = typical sector peer.
VALUE 0: the price sits above our fair-value range.
Insider activity: 44/100
Values & ESG
Does this company touch areas you may want to avoid? The classification is inferred from sector and industry.
ESG scores are not available for this stock yet. Values and ESG data are contextual and can differ between providers.
Similar stocks
10 more Internet Content & Information stocks, each showing price versus our Fair Value estimate (as of Jul 16, 2026).
| Stock | Price | Fair Value | vs Fair Value |
|---|---|---|---|
| Alphabet Inc GOOGL | $354.46 | $145.14 | -59% |
| Meta Platforms, Inc META | $669.21 | $534.91 | -20% |
| Tencent Holdings 0700 | HK$460.20 | HK$467.50 | +2% |
| Baidu, Inc BIDU | $113.30 | $451.51 | +299% |
| Reddit, Inc RDDT | $195.34 | $39.59 | -80% |
| Kuaishou Technology, an investment holding company, 1024 | HK$44.70 | HK$101.03 | +126% |
| NAVER Corporation 035420 | 191,300 KRW | 231,585 KRW | +21% |
| Tencent Music Entertainment Group 1698 | HK$34.74 | HK$65.78 | +89% |
| REA Group REA | A$149.14 | A$88.53 | -41% |
| Pinterest, Inc PINS | $22.52 | $14.71 | -35% |
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How we calculate Fair Value
Each company is valued through a stack of independent intrinsic-value models (DCF variants, residual-income, multiples and more), blended into one family-balanced consensus and weighted by how much trustworthy data backs it. A separate quality layer scores the fundamentals. Every input is real reported data, nothing guessed.
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