Spotify Technology SA (SPOT) fair value: what the stock is really worth
As of Nov 4, 2026: fair value (intrinsic value) of Spotify Technology SA stock $615, price $628, that is 2.0% below the price, quality 72 out of 100. Rating: fairly valued. Calculated from audited financials with 24 of our 26 valuation models and 37 quality factors, updated daily.
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Price vs Fair Value
White line = price, green steps = our fair value per fiscal year. As of Nov 3, 2026.
How to read this chart
60‑month range $71.05 – $775.90 · fair‑value band $374.84 – $840.94 · the $627.66 price screens above the $615.08 fair value. Green steps = our fair value per fiscal year (point-in-time, no hindsight). As of Nov 3, 2026.
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Spotify Technology S.A., together with its subsidiaries, provides audio streaming subscription services worldwide. It operates in two segments, Premium and Ad-Supported.
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The Premium segment offers online and offline streaming access to its catalog of music and podcasts, including video, lossless music, and audiobooks in select markets through subscription offerings primarily sold directly to end users and partners.
The Ad-Supported segment provides limited on-demand online access to its catalog of music and online and offline access to its catalog of podcasts on computers, tablets, mobile devices, and other smart devices.
The company also offers sales, distribution and marketing, contract research and development, and customer and other support services. Spotify Technology S.A. was incorporated in 2006 and is headquartered in Stockholm, Sweden.
Stock analysis
Spotify Technology SA (SPOT) currently trades at $627.66, while our model-based Fair Value estimate is $615.08, so the stock looks roughly fairly valued today (gap 2.0%).
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Valuation
Bull case: the Growth Earnings group reads highest at a median of $325.11 per share, and 0 of the 24 models we run sit above the $627.66 price.
Bear case: the Economic Profit group reads lowest at $97.92, and 24 of the 24 models stay below the price. Data coverage for this calculation is medium.
Scenario range: $374.84 (bear) to $840.94 (bull), the price of $627.66 sits inside it. Bear and bull are the same models on cautious and optimistic assumptions, a range, not a price target.
Quality & growth
The Quality Score stands at 72/100 (solid quality), in the Communication Services sector.
Healthy Growth: Revenue growth appears healthy and is supported by profitability and cash-flow quality.
Spotify Technology SA reported revenue of €17.2B in FY2025 versus €9.7B in FY2021, a compound +15.5%/yr. Reported net income was €2.2B in FY2025.
Key figures
Market cap $131B Large · P/E ratio 38.2 · P/S ratio 6.21 · EPS (TTM) $16.41 · Net margin 15.7% · Return on equity 35.8% · Return on assets (EBIT) 2.7% · Operating margin 13.5%.
Competitive moat
Our AI-assisted moat analysis scores the competitive advantage at 77 out of 100 (medium confidence).
What moves the price
The share trades about 3% below its 52-week high and 52% above its 52-week low, currently above its 200-day average.
For context, the median of 10 Communication Services peers we cover trades at 24% fair-value upside, at −2%, SPOT screens richer than that median.
Fair Value models
Bear$374.84Fair Value $615.08Bull$840.94
Price $627.66 · Downside -2.0%
Model ⓘEach model values the company its own way (discounted cash flow, earnings, assets, dividends). The fair value above starts from their evidence-weighted blend, not from a single model. In cyclical trough or peak years, after dilution or a stock split it is adjusted afterwards, so it can sit above or below the models. Based on fiscal year 2025 figures (about 10 months old). Earnings retained since then ($13.89 per share) are deliberately not added.Bear ⓘBear = the cautious scenario: the same model computed with conservative anchors (lower growth, margins and valuation multiples). Together with Bull it frames a plausible valuation range, not a price target.BaseBull ⓘBull = the optimistic scenario: the same model computed with favourable anchors (higher growth, margins and valuation multiples). Together with Bear it frames a plausible valuation range, not a price target. If a model's bull case is above four times its base value, the table shows that limit with a > sign (like the overall Bull above): beyond it no assumption holds.Coverage ⓘCoverage = how well-backed THIS model's estimate is for this stock (0–100): how complete and reliable its input data are, and how well the model fits the company. The final Fair Value is an evidence-weighted blend, so better-evidenced models count more. Green ≥70, amber 50–69, grey below 50.
In the last 6 months, 6 officers or directors sold shares worth $86.2M and none bought.
SaleGustav SoderstromCo-Chief Executive Officer, Director7× since Apr 1, 2026: 145,988 shares, avg. $494.44$72.2MOct 12, 202610b5-1 plan
SaleDustee JenkinsChief Public Affairs Officer3,810 shares at $512.92$2.0MAug 14, 2026
SaleAlex NorstromCo-Chief Executive Officer, Director5× since Apr 1, 2026: 27,180 shares, avg. $478.76$13.0MAug 3, 202610b5-1 plan
SaleChristopher P MarshallDirector2,650 shares at $519.86$1.4MMay 26, 2026
SaleThomas O StaggsDirector5,477 shares at $526.00$2.9MMay 26, 2026
SaleSven Hans Martin LorentzonDirector35,380 shares at $525.73$18.6MMay 22, 2026
Plus 45 other filings such as grants, option exercises or tax withholding. They are not market purchases or sales.
Sales are often planned (taxes, diversification, 10b5-1 plans). Purchases with their own money are seen as the stronger sign. For information only: not part of the quality score or Fair Value.
Growth Quality ⓘGrowth is valuable only when reinvestment earns attractive returns (Aswath Damodaran): sustainable growth depends on return on capital, reinvestment and efficiency. Basis: total company revenue over the periods shown on the cards (3Y/5Y/all years), not per share, so a merger can show up as a growth jump; per-share earnings growth is in the value-creation card.100/100
Revenue growth appears healthy and is supported by profitability and cash-flow quality.
Revenue growth 1 year
+9.7%
Revenue growth 3 years ⓘMeasures the company's TOTAL revenue from reported annual statements: compound average growth per year (CAGR) from the fiscal year 3, 5 or N years back to the most recent comparable fiscal year. Not per share: buybacks do not change this number, and a merger can appear as a growth jump. Per-share growth (which does include buybacks) is in the value-creation card.
+13.6%
Revenue growth 5 years ⓘMeasures the company's TOTAL revenue from reported annual statements: compound average growth per year (CAGR) from the fiscal year 3, 5 or N years back to the most recent comparable fiscal year. Not per share: buybacks do not change this number, and a merger can appear as a growth jump. Per-share growth (which does include buybacks) is in the value-creation card.
+16.9%
Start year 2020 (pandemic). Over 10 years: +24.4% a year
Revenue growth 10 years ⓘMeasures the company's TOTAL revenue from reported annual statements: compound average growth per year (CAGR) from the fiscal year 3, 5 or N years back to the most recent comparable fiscal year. Not per share: buybacks do not change this number, and a merger can appear as a growth jump. Per-share growth (which does include buybacks) is in the value-creation card.
+24.4%
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Profit margin (trend) ⓘOperating margin then vs now, from reported annual statements. A falling margin after a boom year is the classic peak-earnings signal: the growth rate then leans on an inflated base.
−3.7% (2020) → 12.8% (2025)
What shareholders gained per year ⓘWe only publish this rate when it is defensible. Reason: no profitable base year
not computed
Growth Forecast
A lot of optimism in the price
The price assumes more growth than the company has delivered so far and more than analysts expect.
What the price assumes ⓘThis turns our valuation around: instead of asking what the share is worth, it asks what growth the current price requires. It uses the cash the company keeps after all spending (free cash flow), the same discount rate as our models, five years of growth, then slowing evenly to 2 % a year by year ten. Compared with the analysts' sales forecasts extended to the same five years (at least three analysts, for context only, it does not enter the Fair Value): within 3 percentage points counts as "in line" (amber), below that little optimism (green), above that a lot of optimism (red).
+24.1%
Yearly growth needed for the next five years to justify today's price.
What forecasts expect ⓘAnalysts publish sales forecasts for the next two fiscal years. For the years after that, growth slows evenly to 2 % a year by year ten (2 % is the long-run rate our models use). Projected years are marked as such.
+12.7%
Yearly sales growth analysts expect, extended to five years.
After inflation (figures in EUR, euro area: IMF forecast 2.2% a year to 2030, 2.6% from 2016 to 2025) that is about +21.5% a year for the price and +10.3% for the forecasts.
News mood ⓘNews mood, the average tone of recent news (99 articles), rated against how stocks are usually covered. 🚀 Hype = unusually upbeat · 🙂 Positive = above average · 😐 Neutral = typical · 🙁 Negative = below average · 😨 Very negative = unusually downbeat. It reflects the tone of coverage, not our valuation.Positive
Recent news coverage is more positive than average.
AI conclusion: Platform scale and data create a moderate moat that supports subscriber growth across regions, yet intense competition restricts pricing durability and margin expansion.
Main risk: Spotify relies on licensing agreements with a concentrated group of major record labels for most of its content, and these suppliers could raise fees or restrict access, squeezing margins or limiting the catalogue.
Bull case: Spotify could leverage its scale and data to negotiate better licence terms while using AI features to increase engagement and justify premium pricing across its platform and agent integrations.
Bear case: If major labels raise costs significantly or ecosystem rivals deepen bundling, Spotify might face sustained margin pressure and slower user growth as cheaper or integrated alternatives capture more market share.
Spotify added six million premium subscribers in the third quarter, beating its target with gains in every region, while gross margins rose to 33 percent and operating income exceeded expectations. The company is simultaneously expanding audiobooks to over 180 markets by year end and rolling out more AI personalization tools. Will these moves mainly compound the existing high-engagement platform or shift focus and costs in ways that slow the path to sustained profitability?
Price, fair value, quality and upside side by side.
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Peer GroupⓘHow this stock ranks against its industry: the green marker is this stock, the band is the typical 25–75% peer range, and the tick is the median.Internet Content & Information · 126 stocks
Beats the industry median on 6/13 measures
A mixed picture versus its industry peers.
Valuation
Quality Score72 · Top 25%
Fair Value upside−2.0% · Below median
Profitability
Return on equity (12 months)35.8% · Top 25%
Return on assets14.7% · Top 25%
Net margin (12 months)15.7% · Above median
Operating margin (12 months)13.5% · Above median
Growth and dividend
Revenue growth (quarter YoY)16.3% · Above median
Valuation Multiplesvs Internet Content & Information median · lower = cheaper
For bloggers, editors and developers: paste this into your site or blog (a “Custom HTML” block in WordPress), it shows the current fair value and links back here. Free, plain HTML, and welcome. Full data streams (CSV/JSON) at /developers.
Cite: Fair Value Calculator (2026). "Spotify Technology SA Fair Value". https://www.fairvalue-calculator.com/stock/SPOT
Frequently asked questions
Is Spotify Technology SA (SPOT) overvalued or undervalued?
As of Nov 3, 2026, our model estimates a fair value of $615.08 versus a price of $627.66, about 2% lower (fairly valued).
What is the fair value of SPOT?
Our model-based fair value for Spotify Technology SA is $615.08 (as of Nov 3, 2026), built from audited fundamentals. The current price: $627.66.
What is the quality score of SPOT?
Spotify Technology SA has a Quality Score of 72/100. It measures business quality (profitability, growth, cash flow, balance-sheet strength, investment discipline, share issuance). Market factors such as price momentum and volatility do not enter the number; they are shown separately in the detail view.
What is the price target for Spotify Technology SA (SPOT)?
Our model-based price target is the fair value of $615.08 (as of Nov 3, 2026) from 24 valuation models. Cautious scenario $374.84, optimistic scenario $840.94. It is a calculation from audited fundamentals, not an analyst target.
What is the Spotify Technology SA stock forecast for 2026?
Our models put fair value at $615.08, about 2% lower versus a price of $627.66 (fairly valued). Cautious scenario $374.84, optimistic scenario $840.94. The calculation is refreshed regularly with new filings.
What is the revenue of Spotify Technology SA (SPOT)?
Spotify Technology SA reported trailing-twelve-month revenue of about €18.8B (latest available figure, as of Nov 3, 2026).
What growth is priced into Spotify Technology SA (SPOT)?
For today's price to be fair in a discounted-cash-flow model, Spotify Technology SA would have to grow free cash flow by +24.1 % per year for five years (discount rate 10.7 %, then slowing evenly to 2 % perpetual growth by year ten). Over the last 5 years revenue grew +16.9 % per year. As of Nov 3, 2026.
What discount rate (WACC) does the fair value of SPOT use?
Our models discount Spotify Technology SA at 10.7 %: a base by market capitalisation (large), damped by beta 1.61, country premium for USA. The same rate applies in all 26 models.
What is a reverse DCF?
A reverse DCF turns the usual calculation around. Instead of deriving a value from assumptions, it takes today's price as given and asks: what free-cash-flow growth would a company have to deliver for exactly this price to be fair? The result is not a forecast but the expectation already priced in. For Spotify Technology SA that is +24.1 % per year a year over ten years, using the same discount rate (10.7 %) and the same formula as our fair value.
How much growth has Spotify Technology SA (SPOT) delivered so far?
Over the past 5 years revenue at Spotify Technology SA grew +16.9 % a year. The price currently implies +24.1 % per year free-cash-flow growth a year. Comparing the two shows how much confidence is in the price: if it demands more than has been delivered, the business has to accelerate for the maths to work.
How fast is the sector of Spotify Technology SA (SPOT) growing?
The median revenue growth in the sector is +3.7 % a year. That is the yardstick for the growth priced into Spotify Technology SA (+24.1 % per year a year): it shows whether the expectation is within the usual range or beyond it.
What is the free cash flow yield of Spotify Technology SA (SPOT)?
The free-cash-flow yield on the price is 2.47 %: that much free cash flow Spotify Technology SA produces per unit of market value. When it exceeds the discount rate of our models (10.7 %), the business already earns more than its cost of capital demands, and the price needs little additional growth.
What is the intrinsic value of Spotify Technology SA (SPOT)?
Intrinsic value and fair value mean the same thing: what the business is worth on its numbers, independent of the share price. For Spotify Technology SA it is $615.08 per share (as of Nov 3, 2026), against a price of $627.66. It is the blended result of 24 valuation models (cash flow, earnings, asset, dividend).
Is Spotify Technology SA stock overvalued or undervalued in 2026?
As of Nov 3, 2026, SPOT trades above its calculated fair value: price $627.66, fair value $615.08, a gap of about −2% (fairly valued). The calculation is refreshed with each new quarterly report, so the verdict can change during the year.
Is fair value the same as the market price of SPOT?
No. The price is what the market pays today ($627.66); the fair value is what the company's own numbers justify ($615.08). For Spotify Technology SA the two are $12.58 per share apart. That gap is exactly why we show both numbers side by side.
How much is Spotify Technology SA worth?
The market values Spotify Technology SA at about $131B (market capitalisation, as of Nov 3, 2026). Per share that is $627.66; our models calculate a fair value of $615.08 per share.
What do the bullish and bearish scenarios say about SPOT?
Our models span a range for Spotify Technology SA: cautious scenario $374.84, base $615.08, optimistic $840.94 per share (as of Nov 3, 2026, price $627.66). The range comes from different growth and margin assumptions, not from analyst opinions.
What is the P/E ratio of SPOT?
Spotify Technology SA trades at a price-to-earnings ratio of 38.2 (as of Nov 3, 2026). A P/E on its own says little: it compares the price with ONE year of profit, while our fair value of $615.08 is built from several models across several years. Other multiples: PEG 1.5, P/B 14.0, P/S 6.2, EV/EBITDA 40.3.
What is the PEG ratio of SPOT?
The PEG ratio of Spotify Technology SA is 1.49 (P/E divided by earnings growth, as of Nov 3, 2026). That is above 1, so the growth is already paid for in the price.
How solid is the balance sheet of Spotify Technology SA (SPOT)?
Balance-sheet figures for Spotify Technology SA (as of Nov 3, 2026): return on equity 35.8%. They feed the Quality Score of 72/100, which measures business quality independently of the share price.
How far is SPOT from its 52-week high?
Spotify Technology SA trades at $627.66, about 3% below its 52-week high of $647.87 and 52% above the low of $412.75 (as of Nov 4, 2026). Distance from the high says nothing about value: that is what the fair value of $615.08 is for.
Which stocks are comparable to Spotify Technology SA?
From the same area (Communication Services) we also value Alphabet Inc, Meta Platforms, Inc, Tencent Holdings, Baidu, Inc, among others. Each of them has its own fair-value calculation on this site using the same models, so the comparison is like for like.
Is Spotify Technology SA stock attractive at the current price?
The data as of Nov 3, 2026: price $627.66, calculated fair value $615.08 (−2%), Quality Score 72/100, from 24 models. Whether that fits your horizon and risk tolerance is your call. We provide the calculation, not investment advice.
How is the fair value of SPOT calculated?
We run Spotify Technology SA through 24 models from four families: discounted cash flow, earnings models, asset and balance-sheet models, and dividend models. Every model gets the same audited fundamentals; the result is the weighted average of $615.08, with the spread shown as a cautious and an optimistic scenario.
Is it still worth investing in stocks now?
The global stock market currently sits 15.6% above its aggregate fair value. Spotify Technology SA itself currently trades above fair value. An expensive market is no reason to stay out and no reason to buy everything at once: keep a broad savings plan running, buy single stocks only with money you can do without, and hold part of your money liquid while the market is high. The full picture including sectors is on is it worth investing now.
What is the share price of Spotify Technology SA (SPOT)?
The closing price on Nov 4, 2026 was $627.66. Our model-based fair value is $615.08, about 2% lower (fairly valued). We carry closing prices from our data provider, not a live tick.
What should I pay attention to with Spotify Technology SA right now?
The price sits close to our fair value, market and models broadly agree here, little valuation tension. A fairly wide model range ($374.84 to $840.94) leaves room in how you read the outcome.
Key figures of Spotify Technology SA
How large is the market capitalisation of Spotify Technology SA (SPOT)?
The market capitalisation of Spotify Technology SA is $131B. The stock-market value of the whole company: share price times number of shares. It is what the market asks for the entire business today.
What is the P/S ratio of Spotify Technology SA (SPOT)?
The price-to-sales ratio of Spotify Technology SA is 6.21 (last twelve months). Price to sales: market value relative to yearly revenue. Useful when profit is thin or distorted.
What are the earnings per share of Spotify Technology SA (SPOT)?
Earnings per share at Spotify Technology SA are $16.41 (price ÷ EPS = P/E 38.2). Earnings per share over the last twelve months: total profit spread across every single share.
What is the net margin of Spotify Technology SA (SPOT)?
The net margin of Spotify Technology SA is 15.7% (last twelve months). How much of every unit of revenue ends up as profit. 10% means 10 cents of profit per dollar of sales.
What is the return on equity of Spotify Technology SA (SPOT)?
The return on equity (ROE) of Spotify Technology SA is 35.8% (last twelve months). Profit relative to shareholders' equity, how efficiently the company works with its owners' money.
What is the EBIT return on assets of Spotify Technology SA (SPOT)?
On an EBIT basis the return on assets of Spotify Technology SA is 2.7% (avg 5y). Operating profit (EBIT) relative to everything the company owns, as a multi-year average. It describes the business model rather than one good or bad year.
What is the operating margin of Spotify Technology SA (SPOT)?
The operating margin of Spotify Technology SA is 13.5% (last twelve months). Profit from the core business (before interest and taxes) relative to revenue.
How fast is revenue growing at Spotify Technology SA (SPOT)?
Revenue at Spotify Technology SA is growing +16.3% versus a year earlier (3y avg +13.6%). How much revenue grew versus a year earlier (YoY). The 3-year average next to it puts the single year in context.
How fast are earnings growing at Spotify Technology SA (SPOT)?
Earnings per share at Spotify Technology SA are growing −24.5% versus a year earlier. How much earnings per share grew versus a year earlier.
How much net cash does Spotify Technology SA (SPOT) hold?
Spotify Technology SA holds more cash than debt, €2.9B net (fiscal year 2025). The company holds more cash than debt, a safety cushion.
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Nov 3, 2026