Stellar Bancorp, Inc. (STEL) Fair Value & Analysis
Financial Services · US · Market cap $2.0B · ISIN US8589271068
What is Stellar Bancorp, Inc. really worth?
Stellar Bancorp, Inc.
STEL · US
Below-average quality, and trading another 47% above our fair value of $26.81.
As of Sep 3, 2026, the fair value of Stellar Bancorp, Inc. is $26.81 per share against a price of $39.32, so the fair value sits 32% below the price. A model estimate blended from multiple valuation models, recalculated regularly.
Strengths
Risks
For context
Fair value as of: Sep 3, 2026
From 13 valuation models · updated 3 days ago
Share price +5.7% over the past month.
What runs behind every stock
69 individual criteria per stock, every one traceable See the method →
What matters now
- The price sits above even our optimistic bull case ($32.83). The favourable scenario is already priced in.
- Solid but not exceptional quality (48/100) and above fair value, neither a clear bargain nor a standout compounder.
- For a financial, book-value and earnings-based methods matter more than a cash-flow DCF, which fits banks and insurers poorly.
Price vs Fair Value (5 years)
White line = price, green steps = our fair value per fiscal year, dashed = 300-day average. As of Sep 3, 2026.
How to read this chart
60‑month range $19.42 – $39.69 · fair‑value band $25.92 – $32.83 · the $39.32 price screens above the $26.81 fair value. Green steps = our fair value per fiscal year (point-in-time, no hindsight). Dashed = 300-day average. As of Sep 3, 2026.
Analysis
Stellar Bancorp, Inc. (STEL) currently trades at $39.32, while our model-based Fair Value estimate is $26.81, implying the stock looks roughly 46.7% overvalued today. The Quality Score stands at 48/100 (below-average quality), in the Financial Services sector. Bull case: the DCF Models group reads highest at a median of $44.89 per share, and 6 of the 13 models we run sit above the $39.32 price. Bear case: the Dividend Discount group reads lowest at $8.70, and 7 of the 13 models stay below the price. Evidence for this calculation is high.
Over the trailing twelve months, Stellar Bancorp, Inc. generated revenue of $421M at a net margin of 25.0%. Revenue grew 7.3% year over year. It earns a return on equity of 6.4%. The balance sheet holds a net cash position of $379M. Fundamentals as of Sep 3, 2026
Our scenario range runs from $25.92 (bear case) to $32.83 (bull case); at $39.32, the current price sits above that range. Bear and bull are the same models run on conservative and optimistic assumptions (margins, growth, valuation multiples), so a plausible valuation range, not a price target. The share trades about 2% below its 52-week high and 52% above its 52-week low, currently above its 200-day average. For context, the median of 10 Financial Services peers we cover trades at −28% fair-value upside, at −32%, STEL screens richer than that median.
Fair Value models
This estimate rests on fiscal year 2025 figures, and about 8 months have passed since. In that time the company retained roughly $1.01 per share, which is 3.8 % of the fair value. The fair value deliberately does not add this in: the models value reported figures, not a projection.
Each model estimates fair value its own way; the Fair Value above is the evidence-weighted, family-balanced blend. Evidence (0–100) measures how completely this model’s inputs are available: well-fed models carry more weight in the blend. The spread across models is intentional, each one stresses a different value driver; dividend models, for instance, come out structurally low when payout is small. Every input is real reported data, nothing guessed.
All 13 models by family
Widest divergence: DCF Models ($44.89) versus Dividend Discount ($8.70). Highest evidence: Growth DCF (77).
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Key figures & financial health
More key figures
Figures from reported company fundamentals · as of Sep 3, 2026. TTM = trailing twelve months.
Quality Score breakdown
Of which business quality 42 · Market factors (momentum, volatility) 78
Non-valuation factor families (profitability, growth, cashflow, financial strength, momentum …), each academically grounded. Valuation itself sits in the Fair Value and is deliberately excluded here to avoid double-counting.
All values are scores from 0 to 100 (100 = best against fixed, research-based bands), not percentages. The three market factors (momentum, 52-week proximity, low volatility) are displayed but carry zero weight in the headline number: market sentiment is not a business property.
About the company
Stellar Bancorp, Inc. operates as the bank holding company that provides a range of commercial banking products and services primarily to small and medium-sized businesses, professionals, and individual customers.
Full company description
Stellar Bancorp, Inc. operates as the bank holding company that provides a range of commercial banking products and services primarily to small and medium-sized businesses, professionals, and individual customers. It provides deposit products that include checking accounts, commercial accounts, money market accounts, savings accounts, and other time deposits, as well as convenient services, such as telephone, mobile, and online banking. The company also offers commercial and industrial loans; commercial real estate loans comprising multi-family residential loans; commercial real estate construction and land development loans; residential real estate loans comprising 1-4 family residential mortgage loans, including home equity and home improvement loans, and home equity lines of credit; commercial and retail lending services, such as loans to small businesses, mortgage loans, personal loans, and automobile loans; and factoring services. In addition, it provides safe deposit boxes, debit cards, cash management and wire transfer services, night depository services, direct deposits, cashier's checks, and letters of credit. Stellar Bancorp, Inc. was founded in 2007 and is headquartered in Houston, Texas.
Company description, as reported by the company or data provider.
Revenue & earnings trend
FY2021 – FY2025 · reported fiscal years
Stellar Bancorp, Inc. reported revenue of $596M in FY2025 versus $262M in FY2021, a compound +22.9%/yr. Reported net income was $103M in FY2025, compounding +6.0%/yr from FY2021.
of which total revenue +21.1 % · buybacks/dilution −9.7 %
Annual growth per factor. These are factors, not summands: multiplied they give the EPS growth rate, added they do not quite. Start and end points are 3-year averages (details on hover).
STEL screens 47% overvalued. Compare with Blackstone Inc →
Peer Group
Asset Management · 695 stocks
How this stock ranks against its industry: the green marker is this stock, the band is the typical 25–75% peer range, and the tick is the median.
Valuation Multiples vs Asset Management median · lower = cheaper
Strength profile in five axes (Snowflake)
Five quick dimensions, each 0 to 100: VALUE (fair-value potential), FUTURE (revenue growth), PAST (return on equity), HEALTH (low debt), DIVIDEND (yield). Green = this stock, grey = typical sector peer.
VALUE 0: the price sits above our fair-value range.
Insider activity: 40/100
Values & ESG
Does this company touch areas you may want to avoid? The classification is inferred from sector and industry.
Similar stocks
10 more Asset Management stocks, each showing price versus our Fair Value estimate (as of Sep 3, 2026).
| Stock | Price | Fair Value | vs Fair Value |
|---|---|---|---|
| Blackstone Inc BX | $142.39 | $52.88 | −63% |
| Investor AB INVEB | kr 408.05 | kr 827.56 | +103% |
| Brookfield Corporation BN | C$55.74 | C$10.67 | −81% |
| KKR & Co KKR | $108.68 | $19.97 | −82% |
| Apollo Global Management, Inc APO | $135.04 | $101.04 | −25% |
| State Street Corporation STT | $193.33 | $138.33 | −28% |
| Ameriprise Financial, Inc AMP | $559.32 | $515.24 | −8% |
| Ares Management Corporation ARES | $143.10 | $30.88 | −78% |
| Northern Trust Corporation NTRS | $186.79 | $122.02 | −35% |
| Raymond James Financial, Inc RJF | $181.10 | $142.42 | −21% |
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