Swedbank AB (SWED-A) Fair Value & Analysis
Financial Services · SE · Market cap 409B SEK (≈ $42.7B) · ISIN SE0000242455
Strengths
Risks
Fair value as of: Aug 13, 2026
From 4 valuation models · updated 17 days ago
Fair value updated Aug 13, 2026, revised from kr 378.98 to kr 316.04 (−16.6%) since Jul 11, 2026. Share price +0.5% over the past month.
Below-average quality, and trading another 19% above our fair value.
What runs behind every stock
69 individual criteria per stock, every one traceable See the method →
What matters now
- Solid but not exceptional quality (45/100) and above fair value, neither a clear bargain nor a standout compounder.
- For a financial, book-value and earnings-based methods matter more than a cash-flow DCF, which fits banks and insurers poorly.
Price vs Fair Value (5 years)
White line = price, green steps = our fair value per fiscal year, dashed = 300-day average. As of Aug 13, 2026.
How to read this chart
60‑month range kr 91.17 – kr 388.40 · fair‑value band kr 237.03 – kr 395.05 · the kr 376.10 price screens above the kr 316.04 fair value. Green steps = our fair value per fiscal year (point-in-time, no hindsight). Dashed = 300-day average. As of Aug 13, 2026.
Analysis
Swedbank AB (SWED-A) currently trades at kr 376.10, while our model-based Fair Value estimate is kr 316.04, implying the stock looks roughly 16.0% overvalued today. The Quality Score stands at 45/100 (below-average quality), in the Financial Services sector. Bear case: priced above our estimate, the market already discounts strong expectations. Bull case: above-average quality can justify a premium, the entry price still matters most (evidence: high).
Over the trailing twelve months, Swedbank AB generated revenue of 68.2B SEK at a net margin of 46.8%. Revenue declined 3.2% year over year. It earns a return on equity of 16.0%. Net debt stands at 646B SEK. Fundamentals as of Aug 13, 2026
Our scenario range runs from kr 237.03 (bear case) to kr 395.05 (bull case); at kr 376.10, the current price sits within that range. Bear and bull are the same models run on conservative and optimistic assumptions (margins, growth, valuation multiples), so a plausible valuation range, not a price target. The share trades near its 52-week high and 70% above its 52-week low, currently above its 200-day average. For context, the median of 10 Financial Services peers we cover trades at -8% fair-value upside, at -16%, SWED-A screens richer than that median.
Fair Value models
This estimate rests on fiscal year 2025 figures, and about 8 months have passed since. In that time the company retained roughly 5.18 SEK per share, which is 1.6 % of the fair value. The fair value deliberately does not add this in: the models value reported figures, not a projection.
Each model estimates fair value its own way; the Fair Value above is the evidence-weighted blend. Evidence (0–100) measures how completely this model’s inputs are available: well-fed models carry more weight in the blend. The spread across models is intentional, each one stresses a different value driver; dividend models, for instance, come out structurally low when payout is small.
All 4 models by family
Widest divergence: Multiples (kr 281.32) versus Asset-Based (kr 134.63). Highest evidence: Residual Income (67).
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Key figures & financial health
More key figures
Figures from reported company fundamentals · as of Aug 13, 2026. TTM = trailing twelve months.
Quality Score breakdown
Of which business quality 42 · Market factors (momentum, volatility) 84
Non-valuation factor families (profitability, growth, cashflow, financial strength, momentum …), each academically grounded. Valuation itself sits in the Fair Value and is deliberately excluded here to avoid double-counting.
All values are scores from 0 to 100 (100 = best against fixed, research-based bands), not percentages. The three market factors (momentum, 52-week proximity, low volatility) are displayed but carry zero weight in the headline number: market sentiment is not a business property.
About the company
Swedbank AB (publ) provides banking products and services to private and corporate customers in Sweden, Estonia, Latvia, Lithuania, Norway, the United States, Finland, Denmark, Luxembourg, and China. It operates through Swedish Banking; Baltic Banking; Corporates and Institutions; and Premium and Private Banking segments.
Full company description
Swedbank AB (publ) provides banking products and services to private and corporate customers in Sweden, Estonia, Latvia, Lithuania, Norway, the United States, Finland, Denmark, Luxembourg, and China. It operates through Swedish Banking; Baltic Banking; Corporates and Institutions; and Premium and Private Banking segments. The company offers saving and investment solutions, such as savings accounts, mutual funds and insurance savings, pension savings, institutional asset management, and other savings and investment products; financing solutions, including private residential lending, consumer financing, corporate lending, leasing, and other financing products, as well as trade finance and factoring services; and payment and card services, which include current accounts, cash management, cash handling, debit and credit cards, and card acquiring, as well as domestic, international, mobile, document, and other payment products. It also provides trading and capital market products, such as equity trading, structured products, corporate finance, custody services, fixed income and currency trading, and other capital market products; other services, including administrative services, treasury operations, real estate brokerage and management services, legal services, and safe deposit boxes; and private banking services. In addition, the company offers pension insurance and plans, endowment insurance, and personal insurance products; mortgage lending; mortgage lending; advisory services and investment banking; and transaction banking services comprising cash management, securities, account, and clearing and settlement services, as well as Internet and mobile banking services. The company was formerly known as ForeningsSparbanken AB and changed its name to Swedbank AB (publ) in September 2006. Swedbank AB (publ) was founded in 1820 and is headquartered in Sundbyberg, Sweden.
Company description, as reported by the company or data provider.
Revenue & earnings trend
FY2021 – FY2025 · reported fiscal years
Swedbank AB reported revenue of kr 116B in FY2025 versus kr 49.7B in FY2021, a compound +23.6%/yr. Reported net income was kr 32.8B in FY2025, compounding +11.9%/yr from FY2021.
of which total revenue +9.8 % · buybacks/dilution −0.2 %
Annual growth per factor. These are factors, not summands: multiplied they give the EPS growth rate, added they do not quite. Start and end points are 3-year averages (details on hover).
SWED-A screens 19% overvalued. Compare with DBS Group →
Peer Group
Banks - Regional · 1089 stocks
How this stock ranks against its industry: the green marker is this stock, the band is the typical 25–75% peer range, and the tick is the median.
Valuation Multiples vs Banks - Regional median · lower = cheaper
Snowflake
Five quick dimensions, each 0 to 100: VALUE (fair-value potential), FUTURE (revenue growth), PAST (return on equity), HEALTH (low debt), DIVIDEND (yield). Green = this stock, grey = typical sector peer.
Insider activity: 35/100
Values & ESG
Does this company touch areas you may want to avoid? The classification is inferred from sector and industry.
Similar stocks
10 more Banks - Regional stocks, each showing price versus our Fair Value estimate (as of Aug 13, 2026).
| Stock | Price | Fair Value | vs Fair Value |
|---|---|---|---|
| DBS Group D05 | 75.65 SGD | 40.48 SGD | -46% |
| China Merchants Bank Co 3968 | HK$47.96 | HK$76.51 | +60% |
| Intesa Sanpaolo S.p.A ISP | €6.78 | €5.66 | -17% |
| HDFC Bank Limited HDB | $23.17 | $24.12 | +4% |
| BNP Paribas SA BNP | €102.56 | €144.64 | +41% |
| UniCredit S.p.A UCG | €84.71 | €77.62 | -8% |
| Mizuho Financial Group MFG | $10.45 | $9.83 | -6% |
| ICICI Bank Limited ICICIBANK | ₹1,443 | ₹835.21 | -42% |
| The PNC Financial Services Group PNC | $242.22 | $192.40 | -21% |
| Oversea-Chinese Banking Corporation O39 | 31.07 SGD | 19.80 SGD | -36% |
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Frequently asked questions
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How we calculate Fair Value
Each company is valued through a stack of independent intrinsic-value models (DCF variants, residual-income, multiples and more), blended into one family-balanced consensus and weighted by how much trustworthy data backs it. A separate quality layer scores the fundamentals. Every input is real reported data, nothing guessed.
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