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Swedbank AB (publ) (SWED-A) fair value: what the stock is really worth

As of Oct 14, 2026: fair value of Swedbank AB (publ) SEK 316, price SEK 408, upside -22.4%, quality 48 out of 100. Calculated from audited financials with 26 valuation models and 37 quality factors, updated daily.

Fair value above price? No
Good quality? No
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Financial Services · SE · ISIN SE0000242455

Some data Oct 13, 2026

Swedbank AB (publ)

SWED-A · ST

Weak valuationQuality is weak on top of the rich price.

Our calculation puts a fair price 22% below what the stock costs today.

Highly profitable · 45.1% net margin (TTM)

Wide moat 67/100

Quality 48/100

Expensive Growth (revenue 5y +21.5 %/yr in SEK)

5.0% dividend yield · Watch coverage

Some data

Fair value kr 316.04 · Overvalued (−22.4%)

High debt

Negative free cash flow

Trails peers (5/14)

Insider activity 35/100

26 models, one by oneBear kr 237.03 to bull kr 395.05 Growth analysisrevenue history, year by year Quality 48/100 in detail37 factors, each one shown Compared with its peersrank on every measure, side by side

Watch Swedbank AB (publ) for free: we tell you when fair value or trend changes. Watch for free

What runs behind every stock

26 valuation models 8 families, DCF to NCAV 37 quality factors margins, balance sheet, cashflow, debt 6 AI factors moat, what no ratio measures 2,000+ data points verified, per stock, median

69 individual criteria per stock, every one traceable See the method →

Price vs Fair Value

White line = price, green steps = our fair value per fiscal year, dashed = 300-day average. As of Oct 13, 2026.

How to read this chart

60‑month range kr 91.17 – kr 412.80 · fair‑value band kr 237.03 – kr 395.05 · the kr 407.50 price screens above the kr 316.04 fair value. Green steps = our fair value per fiscal year (point-in-time, no hindsight). Dashed = 300-day average. As of Oct 13, 2026.

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Company profile

Swedbank AB (publ) provides banking products and services to private and corporate customers in Sweden, Estonia, Latvia, Lithuania, Norway, the United States, Finland, Denmark, Luxembourg, and China.

Show moreShow less

It operates through Swedish Banking; Baltic Banking; Corporates and Institutions; and Premium and Private Banking segments.

The company offers saving and investment solutions, such as savings accounts, mutual funds and insurance savings, pension savings, institutional asset management, and other savings and investment products; financing solutions, including private residential lending, consumer financing, corporate lending, leasing, and other financing products, as well as trade finance and factoring services; and payment and card services, which include current accounts, cash management, cash handling, debit and credit cards, and card acquiring, as well as domestic, international, mobile, document, and other payment products.

It also provides trading and capital market products, such as equity trading, structured products, corporate finance, custody services, fixed income and currency trading, and other capital market products; other services, including administrative services, treasury operations, real estate brokerage and management services, legal services, and safe deposit boxes; and private banking services.

In addition, the company offers pension insurance and plans, endowment insurance, and personal insurance products; mortgage lending; mortgage lending; advisory services and investment banking; and transaction banking services comprising cash management, securities, account, and clearing and settlement services, as well as Internet and mobile banking services.

The company was formerly known as ForeningsSparbanken AB and changed its name to Swedbank AB (publ) in September 2006. Swedbank AB (publ) was founded in 1820 and is headquartered in Sundbyberg, Sweden.

Stock analysis

Swedbank AB (publ) (SWED-A) currently trades at kr 407.50, while our model-based Fair Value estimate is kr 316.04, 22.4% below the price, so the stock looks overvalued today.

Valuation

Bull case: the Multiples group reads highest at a median of kr 281.32 per share, and 0 of the 4 models we run sit above the kr 407.50 price.

Bear case: the Asset-Based group reads lowest at kr 134.63, and 4 of the 4 models stay below the price. Data coverage for this calculation is medium.

Scenario range: kr 237.03 (bear) to kr 395.05 (bull), the price of kr 407.50 sits above it. Bear and bull are the same models on cautious and optimistic assumptions, a range, not a price target.

Quality & growth

The Quality Score stands at 48/100 (below-average quality), in the Financial Services sector.

Expensive Growth: The company is growing, but growth may require heavy reinvestment or weak cash conversion.

Swedbank AB (publ) reported revenue of 116B SEK in FY2025 versus 49.7B SEK in FY2021, a compound +23.6%/yr. Reported net income was 32.8B SEK in FY2025, compounding +11.9%/yr from FY2021.

Key figures

Market cap 461B SEK (≈ $46.2B) · P/E ratio 14.8 · P/S ratio 4.17 · EPS (TTM) kr 27.59 · Dividend yield 5.0% · Net margin 28.3% · Return on equity 15.0% · Return on assets (EBIT) 1.2%.

Competitive moat

Our AI-assisted moat analysis scores the competitive advantage at 67 out of 100 (medium confidence).

What moves the price

The share trades about 1% below its 52-week high and 58% above its 52-week low, currently above its 200-day average.

For context, the median of 10 Financial Services peers we cover trades at −32% fair-value upside, at −22%, SWED-A screens cheaper than that median.

Fair Value models

Bear kr 237.03 Fair Value kr 316.04 Bull kr 395.05

Price kr 407.50 · Upside -22.4%

Model ⓘEach model values the company its own way (discounted cash flow, earnings, assets, dividends). The fair value above is their evidence-weighted blend, not the output of a single model. Based on fiscal year 2025 figures (about 9 months old). Earnings retained since then (kr 5.61 per share) are deliberately not added. Bear ⓘBear = the cautious scenario: the same model computed with conservative anchors (lower growth, margins and valuation multiples). Together with Bull it frames a plausible valuation range, not a price target.BaseBull ⓘBull = the optimistic scenario: the same model computed with favourable anchors (higher growth, margins and valuation multiples). Together with Bear it frames a plausible valuation range, not a price target. If a model's bull case is above four times its base value, the table shows that limit with a > sign (like the overall Bull above): beyond it no assumption holds. Coverage ⓘCoverage = how well-backed THIS model's estimate is for this stock (0–100): how complete and reliable its input data are, and how well the model fits the company. The final Fair Value is an evidence-weighted blend, so better-evidenced models count more. Green ≥70, amber 50–69, grey below 50.

Best data coverage

Residual Income kr 198.67 kr 246.07 kr 345.61 75

P/E Multiple kr 284.24 kr 378.98 kr 473.73 63

P/B Multiple kr 210.99 kr 281.32 kr 351.65 55

All 4 models by family

Multiples

P/E Multiple kr 284.24 kr 378.98 kr 473.73 63

P/B Multiple kr 210.99 kr 281.32 kr 351.65 55

Asset-Based

NCAV (Graham) kr 100.47 kr 134.63 kr 200.94 54

Economic Profit

Residual Income kr 198.67 kr 246.07 kr 345.61 75

Open the full fair value analysis →

Quality Score breakdown

Overall quality 48/100

It rates the business: profits, how they develop, real cash, balance sheet, investing and share count.

Profitability 37

How much profit the company makes from its sales and capital

Quality Growth 58

Are margins and returns getting better?

Cashflow 0

Do the profits arrive as real cash?

Financial strength 29

Debt, balance sheet and risk of trouble

Investment 82

Does it invest with discipline instead of growing at any price?

Low Volatility 95

How calm the share price moves, does not count

Momentum 74

Price trend of the last 3 to 12 months, does not count

Near the 52-week high 97

Distance to the 52-week high, does not count

New shares 81

Buys back shares or issues new ones?

Open the full quality analysis →

Revenue & earnings trend

Growth Quality ⓘGrowth is valuable only when reinvestment earns attractive returns (Aswath Damodaran): sustainable growth depends on return on capital, reinvestment and efficiency. Basis: total company revenue over the periods shown on the cards (3Y/5Y/all years), not per share, so a merger can show up as a growth jump; per-share earnings growth is in the value-creation card. 62/100

The company is growing, but growth may require heavy reinvestment or weak cash conversion.

Revenue growth 3 years ⓘMeasures the company's TOTAL revenue from reported annual statements: compound average growth per year (CAGR) from the fiscal year 3, 5 or N years back to the most recent comparable fiscal year. Not per share: buybacks do not change this number, and a merger can appear as a growth jump. Per-share growth (which does include buybacks) is in the value-creation card.

+42.6%

Revenue growth 5 years ⓘMeasures the company's TOTAL revenue from reported annual statements: compound average growth per year (CAGR) from the fiscal year 3, 5 or N years back to the most recent comparable fiscal year. Not per share: buybacks do not change this number, and a merger can appear as a growth jump. Per-share growth (which does include buybacks) is in the value-creation card.

+21.5%

Revenue growth 19 years ⓘMeasures the company's TOTAL revenue from reported annual statements: compound average growth per year (CAGR) from the fiscal year 3, 5 or N years back to the most recent comparable fiscal year. Not per share: buybacks do not change this number, and a merger can appear as a growth jump. Per-share growth (which does include buybacks) is in the value-creation card.

+6.2%

’14

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What shareholders gained per year (last 5 years) ⓘWhat the business itself delivers per year: earnings growth per share plus the dividend yield. This is what you get IF the market keeps valuing the stock the same way: it contains no assumption about the market changing its mind. Computed per share, so buybacks count and a merger does not pass as growth. For a company that pays no dividend it is pure earnings growth per share. Period: earnings growth per share as CAGR over the last 5 reported fiscal years (annual statements), plus the current dividend yield. The start value is the median of the three years around the start, so a single crisis year (a pandemic or a write-down) does not distort the rate.

+15.5%

Earnings growth per share plus dividend.

Earnings per share, growth per year+10.5%

Dividend (yield on the price)5.0%

Pace: 5 vs 10 years ⓘTwo data points, not a trend model: earnings growth per share over the last 5 fiscal years against the last 10. Labelled "steady" when both rates are within 3 percentage points of each other, otherwise picking up or flattening. Shown only when ten years of history exist.10.5% vs 6.9%, picking up

Profit margin 2020 to 2025 ⓘOperating margin then vs now, from reported annual statements. A falling margin after a boom year is the classic peak-earnings signal: the growth rate then leans on an inflated base.32% → 36%

Pace: the 5-year rate starts in 2020 (pandemic)

SWED-A screens overvalued: fair value 22% below the price. Compare with DBS Group →

Earlier news

News mood ⓘNews mood, the average tone of recent news (93 articles), rated against how stocks are usually covered. 🚀 Hype = unusually upbeat · 🙂 Positive = above average · 😐 Neutral = typical · 🙁 Negative = below average · 😨 Very negative = unusually downbeat. It reflects the tone of coverage, not our valuation. Positive

Recent news coverage is more positive than average.

Swedbank (OM:SWED A) Rallies Higher, Is The Stock Trading At A Premium? Yahoo Finance · Sep 22, 2026
Swedbank initiated analysis coverage of the EfTEN Real Estate Fund AS share Yahoo Finance · Sep 17, 2026

Note from the team Oct 11, 2026

AI conclusion: Regional bank shows moderate stickiness as main strength yet limited innovation edge and past governance concerns cap any durable advantage.

Main risk: Significant Baltic income exposure heightens vulnerability to local lending competition and economic swings, pressuring margins.

Swedbank generates roughly a quarter of its income from Baltic operations, giving it outsized sensitivity to interest rate moves in that region. This setup could magnify gains from further rate hikes yet also exposes the bank more sharply to local lending competition and economic swings. Our models currently see the stock as overvalued; will the Baltic contribution drive enough incremental profitability to ease pressure on overall margins, or will it mainly add volatility?

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Peer GroupⓘHow this stock ranks against its industry: the green marker is this stock, the band is the typical 25–75% peer range, and the tick is the median.Banks - Regional · 1054 stocks

Beats the industry median on 5/14 measures

Overall it trails its industry peers.

Valuation

Quality Score 48 · Below median

Fair Value upside −22.4% · Below median

Profitability

Return on equity (12 months) 15.0% · Top 25%

Return on assets 1.1% · Above median

Net margin (12 months) 45.1% · Top 25%

Operating margin (12 months) 51.4% · Top 25%

Growth and dividend

Revenue growth 5.8% · Below median

Dividend yield (12 months) 5.0% · Top 25%

Balance sheet

Debt / equity 2.91× · Highest 25%

Valuation Multiplesvs Banks - Regional median · lower = cheaper

P/E (12 months) 14.8× · Priciest 25%

P/B 2.04× · Priciest 25%

P/S (12 months) 6.66× · Priciest 25%

EV/EBITDA 19.6× · Priciest 25%

PEG 7.56× · Priciest 25%

Strength profile in five axes (Snowflake)

This stock

Sector peers

VALUE (fair-value potential)3 · sector 13

FUTURE (revenue growth)29 · sector 50

PAST (return on equity)60 · sector 41

HEALTH (low debt)0 · sector 84

DIVIDEND (yield)100 · sector 53

Context: sector, industry, market

Values & ESG

Does this company touch areas you may want to avoid? The classification is inferred from sector and industry.

None of the checked exposures detected

Similar stocks

10 more Banks - Regional stocks, each showing price versus our Fair Value estimate.

Stock	Price	Fair Value	vs Fair Value	Compare
China Merchants Bank Co 600036	¥42.76	¥52.73	+23%	vs SWED-A
BNP Paribas SA BNP	€89.59	€105.99	+18%	vs SWED-A
UniCredit S.p.A UCG	€77.72	€77.12	−1%	vs SWED-A
CaixaBank, S.A CABK	€11.93	€8.46	−29%	vs SWED-A
Oversea-Chinese Banking Corporation O39	29.06 SGD	19.78 SGD	−32%	vs SWED-A
Intesa Sanpaolo S.p.A ISP	€6.24	€4.06	−35%	vs SWED-A
Mizuho Financial Group MFG	$10.60	$6.83	−36%	vs SWED-A
HDFC Bank Limited HDFCBANK	₹702.75	₹406.44	−42%	vs SWED-A
DBS Group D05	73.94 SGD	40.39 SGD	−45%	vs SWED-A
ICICI Bank Limited ICICIBANK	₹1,358	₹615.71	−55%	vs SWED-A

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Swedbank AB (publ) · Fair Value
kr 316.04 −22%Fair Value
Calculator →

<a href="https://www.fairvalue-calculator.com/stock/SWED-A" target="_blank" rel="nofollow noopener" style="display:inline-flex;align-items:center;gap:12px;box-sizing:border-box;font-family:system-ui,-apple-system,Segoe UI,Roboto,sans-serif;text-decoration:none;background:#0f1814;color:#eaf2ed;border:1px solid #2a3a30;border-radius:12px;padding:12px 16px;max-width:360px"><span style="line-height:1.35"><span style="font-size:12px;color:#9fb0a8">Swedbank AB (publ) · Fair Value</span><br><b style="font-size:20px">kr 316.04</b> <span style="color:var(--red);font-weight:700;font-size:14px">−22%</span></span><span style="font-size:11px;color:var(--fvc-g-mitte);font-weight:700;margin-left:auto;text-align:right;line-height:1.3">Fair&nbsp;Value<br>Calculator&nbsp;→</span></a>

Cite: Fair Value Calculator (2026). "Swedbank AB (publ) Fair Value". https://www.fairvalue-calculator.com/stock/SWED-A

Frequently asked questions

Is Swedbank AB (publ) (SWED-A) overvalued or undervalued?

As of Oct 13, 2026, our model estimates a fair value of kr 316.04 versus a price of kr 407.50, about −22% upside (overvalued).

What is the fair value of SWED-A?

Our model-based fair value for Swedbank AB (publ) is kr 316.04 (as of Oct 13, 2026), built from audited fundamentals. The current price: kr 407.50.

What is the quality score of SWED-A?

Swedbank AB (publ) has a Quality Score of 48/100. It measures business quality (profitability, growth, cash flow, balance-sheet strength, investment discipline, share issuance). Market factors such as price momentum and volatility do not enter the number; they are shown separately in the detail view.

What is the price target for Swedbank AB (publ) (SWED-A)?

Our model-based price target is the fair value of kr 316.04 (as of Oct 13, 2026) from 4 valuation models. Cautious scenario kr 237.03, optimistic scenario kr 395.05. It is a calculation from audited fundamentals, not an analyst target.

What is the Swedbank AB (publ) stock forecast for 2026?

Our models put fair value at kr 316.04, about −22% upside versus a price of kr 407.50 (overvalued). Cautious scenario kr 237.03, optimistic scenario kr 395.05. The calculation is refreshed regularly with new filings.

What is the revenue of Swedbank AB (publ) (SWED-A)?

Swedbank AB (publ) reported trailing-twelve-month revenue of about 69.2B SEK (latest available figure, as of Oct 13, 2026).

Does Swedbank AB (publ) pay a dividend?

Swedbank AB (publ) currently shows a dividend yield of about 5.02% relative to its recent price (as of Oct 13, 2026).

What is the intrinsic value of Swedbank AB (publ) (SWED-A)?

Intrinsic value and fair value mean the same thing: what the business is worth on its numbers, independent of the share price. For Swedbank AB (publ) it is kr 316.04 per share (as of Oct 13, 2026), against a price of kr 407.50. It is the blended result of 4 valuation models (cash flow, earnings, asset, dividend).

Is Swedbank AB (publ) stock overvalued or undervalued in 2026?

As of Oct 13, 2026, SWED-A trades above its calculated fair value: price kr 407.50, fair value kr 316.04, a gap of about −22% (overvalued). The calculation is refreshed with each new quarterly report, so the verdict can change during the year.

Is fair value the same as the market price of SWED-A?

No. The price is what the market pays today (kr 407.50); the fair value is what the company's own numbers justify (kr 316.04). For Swedbank AB (publ) the two are kr 91.46 per share apart. That gap is exactly why we show both numbers side by side.

How much is Swedbank AB (publ) worth?

The market values Swedbank AB (publ) at about 461B SEK (market capitalisation, as of Oct 13, 2026). Per share that is kr 407.50; our models calculate a fair value of kr 316.04 per share.

What do the bullish and bearish scenarios say about SWED-A?

Our models span a range for Swedbank AB (publ): cautious scenario kr 237.03, base kr 316.04, optimistic kr 395.05 per share (as of Oct 13, 2026, price kr 407.50). The range comes from different growth and margin assumptions, not from analyst opinions.

What is the P/E ratio of SWED-A?

Swedbank AB (publ) trades at a price-to-earnings ratio of 14.8 (as of Oct 13, 2026). A P/E on its own says little: it compares the price with ONE year of profit, while our fair value of kr 316.04 is built from several models across several years. Other multiples: PEG 7.6, P/B 2.0, P/S 6.7, EV/EBITDA 19.6.

What is the PEG ratio of SWED-A?

The PEG ratio of Swedbank AB (publ) is 7.56 (P/E divided by earnings growth, as of Oct 13, 2026). That is above 1, so the growth is already paid for in the price.

How solid is the balance sheet of Swedbank AB (publ) (SWED-A)?

Balance-sheet figures for Swedbank AB (publ) (as of Oct 13, 2026): return on equity 15.0%, debt of 2.91 per unit of equity. They feed the Quality Score of 48/100, which measures business quality independently of the share price.

How far is SWED-A from its 52-week high?

Swedbank AB (publ) trades at kr 407.50, about 1% below its 52-week high of kr 412.80 and 58% above the low of kr 258.00 (as of Oct 14, 2026). Distance from the high says nothing about value: that is what the fair value of kr 316.04 is for.

Which stocks are comparable to Swedbank AB (publ)?

From the same area (Financial Services) we also value DBS Group, China Merchants Bank Co, UniCredit S.p.A, Mizuho Financial Group, among others. Each of them has its own fair-value calculation on this site using the same models, so the comparison is like for like.

Is Swedbank AB (publ) stock attractive at the current price?

The data as of Oct 13, 2026: price kr 407.50, calculated fair value kr 316.04 (−22%), Quality Score 48/100, from 4 models. Whether that fits your horizon and risk tolerance is your call. We provide the calculation, not investment advice.

How is the fair value of SWED-A calculated?

We run Swedbank AB (publ) through 4 models from four families: discounted cash flow, earnings models, asset and balance-sheet models, and dividend models. Every model gets the same audited fundamentals; the result is the weighted average of kr 316.04, with the spread shown as a cautious and an optimistic scenario.

Is it still worth investing in stocks now?

The global stock market currently sits 14.7 % above its aggregate fair value. Swedbank AB (publ) itself currently trades above fair value. An expensive market is no reason to stay out and no reason to buy everything at once: keep a broad savings plan running, buy single stocks only with money you can do without, and hold part of your money liquid while the market is high. The full picture including sectors is on is it worth investing now.

What is the share price of Swedbank AB (publ) (SWED-A)?

The closing price on Oct 14, 2026 was kr 407.50. Our model-based fair value is kr 316.04, about −22% upside (overvalued). We carry closing prices from our data provider, not a live tick.

What should I pay attention to with Swedbank AB (publ) right now?

The price sits above even our optimistic bull case (kr 395.05). The favourable scenario is already priced in. Solid but not exceptional quality (48/100) and above fair value, neither a clear bargain nor a standout compounder. For a financial, book-value and earnings-based methods matter more than a cash-flow DCF, which fits banks and insurers poorly.

Where does the earnings growth of Swedbank AB (publ) (SWED-A) come from?

Earnings per share at Swedbank AB (publ) grew +7.6 % a year from 2014 to 2025. Broken into its drivers: revenue per share +9.6 %, EBIT margin −1.8 %, tax rate −0.1 %, residual (interest, one-offs) +0.1 %. The four rates multiply to the earnings growth rate, they do not add up. Start and end are three-year averages so a single exceptional year does not distort the result.

Key figures of Swedbank AB (publ)

How large is the market capitalisation of Swedbank AB (publ) (SWED-A)?

The market capitalisation of Swedbank AB (publ) is 461B SEK (≈ $46.2B). The stock-market value of the whole company: share price times number of shares. It is what the market asks for the entire business today.

What is the P/S ratio of Swedbank AB (publ) (SWED-A)?

The price-to-sales ratio of Swedbank AB (publ) is 4.17 (P/E × margin). Price to sales: market value relative to yearly revenue. Useful when profit is thin or distorted.

What are the earnings per share of Swedbank AB (publ) (SWED-A)?

Earnings per share at Swedbank AB (publ) are kr 27.59 (price ÷ EPS = P/E 14.8). Earnings per share over the last twelve months: total profit spread across every single share.

What is the dividend yield of Swedbank AB (publ) (SWED-A)?

The dividend yield of Swedbank AB (publ) is 5.0% (payout 74.1%). Yearly dividend relative to the share price. 3% pays 3 per 100 invested. Below: how much of profit is used for it.

What is the net margin of Swedbank AB (publ) (SWED-A)?

The net margin of Swedbank AB (publ) is 28.3% (fiscal year 2025). How much of every unit of revenue ends up as profit. 10% means 10 cents of profit per dollar of sales.

What is the return on equity of Swedbank AB (publ) (SWED-A)?

The return on equity (ROE) of Swedbank AB (publ) is 15.0% (last twelve months). Profit relative to shareholders' equity, how efficiently the company works with its owners' money.

What is the EBIT return on assets of Swedbank AB (publ) (SWED-A)?

On an EBIT basis the return on assets of Swedbank AB (publ) is 1.2% (avg 5y). Operating profit (EBIT) relative to everything the company owns, as a multi-year average. It describes the business model rather than one good or bad year.

What is the operating margin of Swedbank AB (publ) (SWED-A)?

The operating margin of Swedbank AB (publ) is 51.4% (last twelve months). Profit from the core business (before interest and taxes) relative to revenue.

How fast is revenue growing at Swedbank AB (publ) (SWED-A)?

Revenue at Swedbank AB (publ) is growing +5.8% versus a year earlier (3y avg +21.6%). How much revenue grew versus a year earlier (YoY). The 3-year average next to it puts the single year in context.

How fast are earnings growing at Swedbank AB (publ) (SWED-A)?

Earnings per share at Swedbank AB (publ) are growing −8.9% versus a year earlier. How much earnings per share grew versus a year earlier.

How much free cash flow does Swedbank AB (publ) (SWED-A) generate?

The free cash flow of Swedbank AB (publ) is −46.7B SEK (fiscal year 2025). The cash truly left after running and investing in the business, this is what pays dividends and buybacks.

How much net debt does Swedbank AB (publ) (SWED-A) carry?

The net debt of Swedbank AB (publ) is 646B SEK (fiscal year 2025). Debt minus cash on hand. The note shows how many years of free cash flow could in theory pay it off.

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