Joint Stock Commercial Bank for Foreign Trade of Vietnam (VCB) fair value: what the stock is really worth
As of Sep 24, 2026: fair value of Joint Stock Commercial Bank for Foreign Trade of Vietnam VND 32,856, price VND 58,100, upside -43.5%, quality 59 out of 100. Calculated from audited financials with 26 valuation models and 37 quality factors, updated daily.
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Price vs Fair Value
White line = price, green steps = our fair value per fiscal year, dashed = 300-day average. As of Sep 24, 2026.
How to read this chart
60‑month range 34,861 VND – 76,000 VND · fair‑value band 25,690 VND – 57,448 VND · the 58,100 VND price screens above the 32,856 VND fair value. Green steps = our fair value per fiscal year (point-in-time, no hindsight). Dashed = 300-day average. As of Sep 24, 2026.
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Joint Stock Commercial Bank for Foreign Trade of Vietnam, together with its subsidiaries, provides banking products and services in Vietnam. The company accepts short, medium, and long-term deposits from organizations and individuals; sale of gold bars; and engages in financial and office leasing, and money remittance activities.
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Joint Stock Commercial Bank for Foreign Trade of Vietnam, together with its subsidiaries, provides banking products and services in Vietnam. The company accepts short, medium, and long-term deposits from organizations and individuals; sale of gold bars; and engages in financial and office leasing, and money remittance activities. It also provides account services; digital banking services; payment, corporate, and credit cards; consumer, home, auto, and business loans; and investment and savings insurance. In addition, the company offers money payment and cash flow management services, such as business accounts, cash flow management, trade finance, fund transfer, and corporate cards; SME loans, such as credit by industry, short, medium, and long-term loans; guarantee services; foreign exchange and capital market services, such as forex trading, interest rate derivatives, and commodity derivatives; digital banking; supply chain solutions; and consulting and investment services. The company was formerly known as Bank for Foreign trade of Vietnam. Joint Stock Commercial Bank for Foreign Trade of Vietnam was founded in 1963 and is headquartered in Hanoi, Vietnam.
Stock analysis
Joint Stock Commercial Bank for Foreign Trade of Vietnam (VCB) currently trades at 58,100 VND, while our model-based Fair Value estimate is 32,856 VND, implying the stock looks roughly 76.8% overvalued today.
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Valuation
Bull case: the Economic Profit group reads highest at a median of 37,909 VND per share, and 0 of the 6 models we run sit above the 58,100 VND price.
Bear case: the Dividend Discount group reads lowest at 6,264 VND, and 6 of the 6 models stay below the price. Evidence for this calculation is medium.
Scenario range: 25,690 VND (bear) to 57,448 VND (bull), the price of 58,100 VND sits above it. Bear and bull are the same models on cautious and optimistic assumptions, a range, not a price target.
Quality & growth
The Quality Score stands at 59/100 (solid quality), in the Financial Services sector.
Mixed Growth: Revenue is growing, but margins or cash flow do not fully confirm the trend.
Joint Stock Commercial Bank for Foreign Trade of Vietnam reported revenue of 69.1T VND in FY2025 versus 54.8T VND in FY2021, a compound +6.0%/yr. Reported net income was 35.2T VND in FY2025, compounding +12.6%/yr from FY2021.
Key figures
Market cap 485T VND · P/E ratio 14.7 · P/S ratio 7.51 · EPS (TTM) 3,943 VND · Dividend yield 0.8% · Net margin 50.9% · Return on equity 16.4% · Return on assets 1.5%.
Competitive moat
Our AI-assisted moat analysis scores the competitive advantage at 51 out of 100 (low confidence).
What moves the price
The share trades about 24% below its 52-week high and 8% above its 52-week low, currently below its 200-day average.
For context, the median of 10 Financial Services peers we cover trades at −36% fair-value upside, at −43%, VCB screens richer than that median.
Fair Value models
Bear 25,690 VNDFair Value 32,856 VNDBull 57,448 VND
Model ⓘEach model values the company its own way (discounted cash flow, earnings, assets, dividends). The fair value above is their evidence-weighted blend, not the output of a single model. Based on fiscal year 2025 figures (about 9 months old). Earnings retained since then (2,895 VND per share) are deliberately not added.Bear ⓘBear = the cautious scenario: the same model computed with conservative anchors (lower growth, margins and valuation multiples). Together with Bull it frames a plausible valuation range, not a price target.BaseBull ⓘBull = the optimistic scenario: the same model computed with favourable anchors (higher growth, margins and valuation multiples). Together with Bear it frames a plausible valuation range, not a price target.Evidence ⓘEvidence = how well-backed THIS model's estimate is for this stock (0–100): how complete and reliable its input data are, and how well the model fits the company. The final Fair Value is an evidence-weighted blend, so better-evidenced models count more. Green ≥70, amber 50–69, grey below 50.
Growth Quality ⓘGrowth is valuable only when reinvestment earns attractive returns (Aswath Damodaran): sustainable growth depends on return on capital, reinvestment and efficiency. Basis: total company revenue over the periods shown on the cards (3Y/5Y/all years), not per share, so a merger can show up as a growth jump; per-share earnings growth is in the value-creation card.80/100
Revenue is growing, but margins or cash flow do not fully confirm the trend.
Revenue growth 1 year
−0.6%
Revenue growth 3 years ⓘMeasures the company's TOTAL revenue from reported annual statements: compound average growth per year (CAGR) from the fiscal year 3, 5 or N years back to the most recent comparable fiscal year. Not per share: buybacks do not change this number, and a merger can appear as a growth jump. Per-share growth (which does include buybacks) is in the value-creation card.
+1.4%
Revenue growth 5 years ⓘMeasures the company's TOTAL revenue from reported annual statements: compound average growth per year (CAGR) from the fiscal year 3, 5 or N years back to the most recent comparable fiscal year. Not per share: buybacks do not change this number, and a merger can appear as a growth jump. Per-share growth (which does include buybacks) is in the value-creation card.
+8.0%
Start year 2020 (pandemic)
Revenue growth 6 years ⓘMeasures the company's TOTAL revenue from reported annual statements: compound average growth per year (CAGR) from the fiscal year 3, 5 or N years back to the most recent comparable fiscal year. Not per share: buybacks do not change this number, and a merger can appear as a growth jump. Per-share growth (which does include buybacks) is in the value-creation card.
+7.0%
’19
’20
’21
’22
’23
’24
’25
What shareholders gained per year (last 5 years), in VND ⓘWhat the business itself delivers per year: earnings growth per share plus the dividend yield. This is what you get IF the market keeps valuing the stock the same way: it contains no assumption about the market changing its mind. Computed per share, so buybacks count and a merger does not pass as growth. For a company that pays no dividend it is pure earnings growth per share. Period: earnings growth per share as CAGR over the last 5 reported fiscal years (annual statements), plus the current dividend yield. The start value is the median of the three years around the start, so a single crisis year (a pandemic or a write-down) does not distort the rate. Measured in VND: this currency has depreciated against the euro and dollar over the long run, so part of the nominal rate is currency erosion that never reaches a EUR/USD investor.
+5.7%
Earnings growth per share plus dividend.
Earnings per share, growth per year+4.9%
Dividend (yield on the price)0.8%
Growth Forecast
Little optimism in the price
What the price assumes ⓘThis turns our valuation around: instead of asking what the share is worth, it asks what growth the current price requires. It uses the cash the company keeps after all spending (free cash flow), the same discount rate as our models, five years of growth, then slowing evenly to 2 % a year by year ten. Compared with the analysts' sales forecasts extended to the same five years (at least three analysts, for context only, it does not enter the Fair Value): within 3 percentage points counts as "in line" (amber), below that little optimism (green), above that a lot of optimism (red).
less than -40 %
Yearly growth needed for the next five years to justify today's price.
What forecasts expect ⓘAnalysts publish sales forecasts for the next two fiscal years. For the years after that, growth slows evenly to 2 % a year by year ten (2 % is the long-run rate our models use). Projected years are marked as such.
+16.0%
Yearly sales growth analysts expect, extended to five years.
After inflation (Vietnam: IMF forecast 4.1% a year to 2030, 3.1% from 2016 to 2025) that is about +11.4% a year for the forecasts.
Compare Joint Stock Commercial Bank for Foreign Trade of Vietnam with another stock
Price, fair value, quality and upside side by side.
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Peer GroupⓘHow this stock ranks against its industry: the green marker is this stock, the band is the typical 25–75% peer range, and the tick is the median.Banks - Regional · 1076 stocks
Beats the industry median on 7/12 measures
A mixed picture versus its industry peers.
Valuation
Quality Score62 · Top 25%
Fair Value upside−43% · Bottom 25%
Profitability
Return on equity (TTM)16% · Top 25%
Return on assets2% · Top 25%
Net margin (TTM)50% · Top 25%
Operating margin (TTM)65% · Top 25%
Growth and dividend
Revenue growth13% · Above median
Dividend yield (TTM)0.8% · Bottom 25%
Valuation Multiplesvs Banks - Regional median · lower = cheaper
P/E (TTM)14.7× · Pricier than median
P/B2.16× · Priciest 25%
P/S (TTM)6.80× · Priciest 25%
P/FCF0.0× · Cheapest 25%
Strength profile in five axes (Snowflake)
This stockSector peers
VALUE (fair-value potential)0· sector 11
FUTURE (revenue growth)66· sector 45
PAST (return on equity)66· sector 41
HEALTH (low debt)0· sector 85
DIVIDEND (yield)15· sector 53
VALUE 0: the price sits above our fair-value range.
For bloggers, editors and developers: paste this into your site or blog (a “Custom HTML” block in WordPress), it shows the current fair value and links back here. Free, plain HTML, and welcome. Full data streams (CSV/JSON) at /developers.
Cite: Fair Value Calculator (2026). "Joint Stock Commercial Bank for Foreign Trade of Vietnam Fair Value". https://www.fairvalue-calculator.com/stock/VCB
Frequently asked questions
Is Joint Stock Commercial Bank for Foreign Trade of Vietnam (VCB) overvalued or undervalued?
As of Sep 24, 2026, our model estimates a fair value of 32,856 VND versus a price of 58,100 VND, about −43% upside (overvalued).
What is the fair value of VCB?
Our model-based fair value for Joint Stock Commercial Bank for Foreign Trade of Vietnam is 32,856 VND (as of Sep 24, 2026), built from audited fundamentals. The current price: 58,100 VND.
What is the quality score of VCB?
Joint Stock Commercial Bank for Foreign Trade of Vietnam has a Quality Score of 59/100. It measures business quality (profitability, growth, cash flow, balance-sheet strength, investment discipline, share issuance). Market factors such as price momentum and volatility do not enter the number; they are shown separately in the detail view.
What is the price target for Joint Stock Commercial Bank for Foreign Trade of Vietnam (VCB)?
Our model-based price target is the fair value of 32,856 VND (as of Sep 24, 2026) from 6 valuation models. Cautious scenario 25,690 VND, optimistic scenario 57,448 VND. It is a calculation from audited fundamentals, not an analyst target.
What is the Joint Stock Commercial Bank for Foreign Trade of Vietnam stock forecast for 2026?
Our models put fair value at 32,856 VND, about −43% upside versus a price of 58,100 VND (overvalued). Cautious scenario 25,690 VND, optimistic scenario 57,448 VND. The calculation is refreshed regularly with new filings.
What is the revenue of Joint Stock Commercial Bank for Foreign Trade of Vietnam (VCB)?
Joint Stock Commercial Bank for Foreign Trade of Vietnam reported trailing-twelve-month revenue of about 71.4T VND (latest available figure, as of Sep 24, 2026).
Does Joint Stock Commercial Bank for Foreign Trade of Vietnam pay a dividend?
Joint Stock Commercial Bank for Foreign Trade of Vietnam currently shows a dividend yield of about 0.77% relative to its recent price (as of Sep 24, 2026).
What growth is priced into Joint Stock Commercial Bank for Foreign Trade of Vietnam (VCB)?
For today's price to be fair in a discounted-cash-flow model, Joint Stock Commercial Bank for Foreign Trade of Vietnam would have to grow free cash flow by less than minus 40 % per year for five years (discount rate 11.4 %, then slowing evenly to 2 % perpetual growth by year ten). Over the last 5 years revenue grew +8.0 % per year. As of Sep 24, 2026.
What discount rate (WACC) does the fair value of VCB use?
Our models discount Joint Stock Commercial Bank for Foreign Trade of Vietnam at 11.4 %: a base by market capitalisation (large), damped by beta 0.53, country premium for Vietnam. The same rate applies in all 26 models.
What is a reverse DCF?
A reverse DCF turns the usual calculation around. Instead of deriving a value from assumptions, it takes today's price as given and asks: what free-cash-flow growth would a company have to deliver for exactly this price to be fair? The result is not a forecast but the expectation already priced in. For Joint Stock Commercial Bank for Foreign Trade of Vietnam that is less than minus 40 % per year a year over ten years, using the same discount rate (11.4 %) and the same formula as our fair value.
How much growth has Joint Stock Commercial Bank for Foreign Trade of Vietnam (VCB) delivered so far?
Over the past 5 years revenue at Joint Stock Commercial Bank for Foreign Trade of Vietnam grew +8.0 % a year. The price currently implies less than minus 40 % per year free-cash-flow growth a year. Comparing the two shows how much confidence is in the price: if it demands more than has been delivered, the business has to accelerate for the maths to work.
How fast is the sector of Joint Stock Commercial Bank for Foreign Trade of Vietnam (VCB) growing?
The median revenue growth in the sector is +7.0 % a year. That is the yardstick for the growth priced into Joint Stock Commercial Bank for Foreign Trade of Vietnam (less than minus 40 % per year a year): it shows whether the expectation is within the usual range or beyond it.
What is the free cash flow yield of Joint Stock Commercial Bank for Foreign Trade of Vietnam (VCB)?
The free-cash-flow yield on the price is 23.64 %: that much free cash flow Joint Stock Commercial Bank for Foreign Trade of Vietnam produces per unit of market value. When it exceeds the discount rate of our models (11.4 %), the business already earns more than its cost of capital demands, and the price needs little additional growth.
What is the intrinsic value of Joint Stock Commercial Bank for Foreign Trade of Vietnam (VCB)?
Intrinsic value and fair value mean the same thing: what the business is worth on its numbers, independent of the share price. For Joint Stock Commercial Bank for Foreign Trade of Vietnam it is 32,856 VND per share (as of Sep 24, 2026), against a price of 58,100 VND. It is the blended result of 6 valuation models (cash flow, earnings, asset, dividend).
Is Joint Stock Commercial Bank for Foreign Trade of Vietnam stock overvalued or undervalued in 2026?
As of Sep 24, 2026, VCB trades above its calculated fair value: price 58,100 VND, fair value 32,856 VND, a gap of about −43% (overvalued). The calculation is refreshed with each new quarterly report, so the verdict can change during the year.
Is fair value the same as the market price of VCB?
No. The price is what the market pays today (58,100 VND); the fair value is what the company's own numbers justify (32,856 VND). For Joint Stock Commercial Bank for Foreign Trade of Vietnam the two are 25,244 VND per share apart. That gap is exactly why we show both numbers side by side.
How much is Joint Stock Commercial Bank for Foreign Trade of Vietnam worth?
The market values Joint Stock Commercial Bank for Foreign Trade of Vietnam at about 485T VND (market capitalisation, as of Sep 24, 2026). Per share that is 58,100 VND; our models calculate a fair value of 32,856 VND per share.
What do the bullish and bearish scenarios say about VCB?
Our models span a range for Joint Stock Commercial Bank for Foreign Trade of Vietnam: cautious scenario 25,690 VND, base 32,856 VND, optimistic 57,448 VND per share (as of Sep 24, 2026, price 58,100 VND). The range comes from different growth and margin assumptions, not from analyst opinions.
What is the P/E ratio of VCB?
Joint Stock Commercial Bank for Foreign Trade of Vietnam trades at a price-to-earnings ratio of 14.7 (as of Sep 24, 2026). A P/E on its own says little: it compares the price with ONE year of profit, while our fair value of 32,856 VND is built from several models across several years. Other multiples: P/B 2.2, P/S 6.8.
How solid is the balance sheet of Joint Stock Commercial Bank for Foreign Trade of Vietnam (VCB)?
Balance-sheet figures for Joint Stock Commercial Bank for Foreign Trade of Vietnam (as of Sep 24, 2026): return on equity 16.4%. They feed the Quality Score of 59/100, which measures business quality independently of the share price.
How far is VCB from its 52-week high?
Joint Stock Commercial Bank for Foreign Trade of Vietnam trades at 58,100 VND, about 24% below its 52-week high of 76,000 VND and 8% above the low of 54,000 VND (as of Sep 24, 2026). Distance from the high says nothing about value: that is what the fair value of 32,856 VND is for.
Which stocks are comparable to Joint Stock Commercial Bank for Foreign Trade of Vietnam?
From the same area (Financial Services) we also value DBS Group, China Merchants Bank Co, UniCredit S.p.A, Intesa Sanpaolo S.p.A, among others. Each of them has its own fair-value calculation on this site using the same models, so the comparison is like for like.
Is Joint Stock Commercial Bank for Foreign Trade of Vietnam stock attractive at the current price?
The data as of Sep 24, 2026: price 58,100 VND, calculated fair value 32,856 VND (−43%), Quality Score 59/100, from 6 models. Whether that fits your horizon and risk tolerance is your call. We provide the calculation, not investment advice.
How is the fair value of VCB calculated?
We run Joint Stock Commercial Bank for Foreign Trade of Vietnam through 6 models from four families: discounted cash flow, earnings models, asset and balance-sheet models, and dividend models. Every model gets the same audited fundamentals; the result is the weighted average of 32,856 VND, with the spread shown as a cautious and an optimistic scenario.
Is it still worth investing in stocks now?
The global stock market currently sits 14.0 % above its aggregate fair value. Joint Stock Commercial Bank for Foreign Trade of Vietnam itself currently trades above fair value. An expensive market is no reason to stay out and no reason to buy everything at once: keep a broad savings plan running, buy single stocks only with money you can do without, and hold part of your money liquid while the market is high. The full picture including sectors is on is it worth investing now.
What is the share price of Joint Stock Commercial Bank for Foreign Trade of Vietnam (VCB)?
The closing price on Sep 24, 2026 was 58,100 VND. Our model-based fair value is 32,856 VND, about −43% upside (overvalued). We carry closing prices from our data provider, not a live tick.
What should I pay attention to with Joint Stock Commercial Bank for Foreign Trade of Vietnam right now?
Solid but not exceptional quality (59/100) and above fair value, neither a clear bargain nor a standout compounder. A fairly wide model range (25,690 VND to 57,448 VND) leaves room in how you read the outcome. For a financial, book-value and earnings-based methods matter more than a cash-flow DCF, which fits banks and insurers poorly.
Key figures of Joint Stock Commercial Bank for Foreign Trade of Vietnam
How large is the market capitalisation of Joint Stock Commercial Bank for Foreign Trade of Vietnam (VCB)?
The market capitalisation of Joint Stock Commercial Bank for Foreign Trade of Vietnam is 485T VND. The stock-market value of the whole company: share price times number of shares. It is what the market asks for the entire business today.
What is the P/S ratio of Joint Stock Commercial Bank for Foreign Trade of Vietnam (VCB)?
The price-to-sales ratio of Joint Stock Commercial Bank for Foreign Trade of Vietnam is 7.51 (P/E × margin). Price to sales: market value relative to yearly revenue. Useful when profit is thin or distorted.
What are the earnings per share of Joint Stock Commercial Bank for Foreign Trade of Vietnam (VCB)?
Earnings per share at Joint Stock Commercial Bank for Foreign Trade of Vietnam are 3,943 VND (price ÷ EPS = P/E 14.7). Earnings per share over the last twelve months: total profit spread across every single share.
What is the dividend yield of Joint Stock Commercial Bank for Foreign Trade of Vietnam (VCB)?
The dividend yield of Joint Stock Commercial Bank for Foreign Trade of Vietnam is 0.8% (payout 11.4%). Yearly dividend relative to the share price. 3% pays 3 per 100 invested. Below: how much of profit is used for it.
What is the net margin of Joint Stock Commercial Bank for Foreign Trade of Vietnam (VCB)?
The net margin of Joint Stock Commercial Bank for Foreign Trade of Vietnam is 50.9% (fiscal year 2025). How much of every unit of revenue ends up as profit. 10% means 10 cents of profit per dollar of sales.
What is the return on equity of Joint Stock Commercial Bank for Foreign Trade of Vietnam (VCB)?
The return on equity (ROE) of Joint Stock Commercial Bank for Foreign Trade of Vietnam is 16.4% (last twelve months). Profit relative to shareholders' equity, how efficiently the company works with its owners' money.
What is the return on assets of Joint Stock Commercial Bank for Foreign Trade of Vietnam (VCB)?
The return on assets (ROA) of Joint Stock Commercial Bank for Foreign Trade of Vietnam is 1.5% (last twelve months). Profit relative to everything the company owns. Harder to inflate than return on equity because debt does not boost it.
What is the operating margin of Joint Stock Commercial Bank for Foreign Trade of Vietnam (VCB)?
The operating margin of Joint Stock Commercial Bank for Foreign Trade of Vietnam is 64.6% (last twelve months). Profit from the core business (before interest and taxes) relative to revenue.
How fast is revenue growing at Joint Stock Commercial Bank for Foreign Trade of Vietnam (VCB)?
Revenue at Joint Stock Commercial Bank for Foreign Trade of Vietnam is growing +13.2% versus a year earlier (3y avg +1.4%). How much revenue grew versus a year earlier (YoY). The 3-year average next to it puts the single year in context.
How fast are earnings growing at Joint Stock Commercial Bank for Foreign Trade of Vietnam (VCB)?
Earnings per share at Joint Stock Commercial Bank for Foreign Trade of Vietnam are growing +8.7% versus a year earlier. How much earnings per share grew versus a year earlier.
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