Tat Gida Sanayi AS (TATGD) fair value: what the stock is really worth
As of Oct 28, 2026: fair value (intrinsic value) of Tat Gida Sanayi AS stock TRY 11.34, price TRY 14.70, upside -22.9%, quality 39 out of 100. Rating: overvalued. Calculated from audited financials with 26 valuation models and 37 quality factors, updated daily.
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Price vs Fair Value
White line = price, green steps = our fair value per fiscal year. As of Oct 29, 2026.
How to read this chart
60‑month range 4.82 TRY – 26.73 TRY · fair‑value band 8.50 TRY – 14.17 TRY · the 14.70 TRY price screens above the 11.34 TRY fair value. As of Oct 29, 2026.
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Tat Gida Sanayi A.S., together with its subsidiaries, manufactures and sells tomato products in Turkey and internationally. The company offers tomato paste, ketchup sauces, convenience food, pickles, canned food, and ready meals.
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It also engages in the production, distribution, marketing, trading, and brokerage of commercial goods; food; beverages; agricultural and animal food products in frozen, dried, and powdered forms; raw materials; auxiliary and additive materials; sugary and sugar-free juices and preserves; and semi-finished and finished products.
The company exports its products. The company was formerly known as Tat Konserve Sanayii AS. and changed its name to Tat Gida Sanayi A.S. in November 2013. Tat Gida Sanayi A.S. was founded in 1967 and is headquartered in Istanbul, Turkey.
Stock analysis
Tat Gida Sanayi AS (TATGD) currently trades at 14.70 TRY, while our model-based Fair Value estimate is 11.34 TRY, 22.9% below the price, so the stock looks overvalued today.
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Valuation
Bull case: the DCF Models group reads highest at a median of 39.41 TRY per share, and 12 of the 21 models we run sit above the 14.70 TRY price.
Bear case: the Asset-Based group reads lowest at 3.74 TRY, and 9 of the 21 models stay below the price. Data coverage for this calculation is low.
Scenario range: 8.50 TRY (bear) to 14.17 TRY (bull), the price of 14.70 TRY sits above it. Bear and bull are the same models on cautious and optimistic assumptions, a range, not a price target.
Quality & growth
The Quality Score stands at 39/100 (below-average quality), in the Consumer Defensive sector.
Mixed Growth: Revenue is growing, but margins or cash flow do not fully confirm the trend.
Tat Gida Sanayi AS reported revenue of 8.2B TRL in FY2025 versus 1.1B TRL in FY2021, a compound +65.5%/yr. Reported net income was 132M TRL in FY2025, compounding −12.3%/yr from FY2021.
Key figures
Market cap 3.6B TRY (≈ $72.0M) Micro · P/E ratio 6.6 · P/S ratio 0.43 · EPS (TTM) 2.24 TRY · Net margin 7.1% · Return on equity 9.9% · Return on assets (EBIT) 1.5% · Operating margin 1.2%.
Competitive moat
Our AI-assisted moat analysis scores the competitive advantage at 34 out of 100 (low confidence).
What moves the price
The share trades about 36% below its 52-week high and 25% above its 52-week low, currently below its 200-day average.
For context, the median of 10 Consumer Defensive peers we cover trades at −21% fair-value upside, at −23%, TATGD screens richer than that median.
Fair Value models
Bear8.50 TRYFair Value 11.34 TRYBull14.17 TRY
Price 14.70 TRY · Upside -22.9%
Model ⓘEach model values the company its own way (discounted cash flow, earnings, assets, dividends). The fair value above starts from their evidence-weighted blend, not from a single model. In cyclical trough or peak years, after dilution or a stock split it is adjusted afterwards, so it can sit above or below the models. Based on fiscal year 2025 figures (about 10 months old). Earnings retained since then (1.86 TRY per share) are deliberately not added.Bear ⓘBear = the cautious scenario: the same model computed with conservative anchors (lower growth, margins and valuation multiples). Together with Bull it frames a plausible valuation range, not a price target.BaseBull ⓘBull = the optimistic scenario: the same model computed with favourable anchors (higher growth, margins and valuation multiples). Together with Bear it frames a plausible valuation range, not a price target. If a model's bull case is above four times its base value, the table shows that limit with a > sign (like the overall Bull above): beyond it no assumption holds.Coverage ⓘCoverage = how well-backed THIS model's estimate is for this stock (0–100): how complete and reliable its input data are, and how well the model fits the company. The final Fair Value is an evidence-weighted blend, so better-evidenced models count more. Green ≥70, amber 50–69, grey below 50.
Growth Quality ⓘGrowth is valuable only when reinvestment earns attractive returns (Aswath Damodaran): sustainable growth depends on return on capital, reinvestment and efficiency. Basis: total company revenue over the periods shown on the cards (3Y/5Y/all years), not per share, so a merger can show up as a growth jump; per-share earnings growth is in the value-creation card.76/100
Revenue is growing, but margins or cash flow do not fully confirm the trend.
Revenue growth 1 year
−1.2%
Revenue growth 3 years ⓘMeasures the company's TOTAL revenue from reported annual statements: compound average growth per year (CAGR) from the fiscal year 3, 5 or N years back to the most recent comparable fiscal year. Not per share: buybacks do not change this number, and a merger can appear as a growth jump. Per-share growth (which does include buybacks) is in the value-creation card.
+43.2%
Revenue growth 5 years ⓘMeasures the company's TOTAL revenue from reported annual statements: compound average growth per year (CAGR) from the fiscal year 3, 5 or N years back to the most recent comparable fiscal year. Not per share: buybacks do not change this number, and a merger can appear as a growth jump. Per-share growth (which does include buybacks) is in the value-creation card.
+59.1%
Start year 2020 (pandemic). Over 10 years: +24.6% a year
Revenue growth 25 years ⓘMeasures the company's TOTAL revenue from reported annual statements: compound average growth per year (CAGR) from the fiscal year 3, 5 or N years back to the most recent comparable fiscal year. Not per share: buybacks do not change this number, and a merger can appear as a growth jump. Per-share growth (which does include buybacks) is in the value-creation card.
−28.9%
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What shareholders gained per year (last 5 years) ⓘWhat the business itself delivers per year: earnings growth per share plus the dividend yield. This is what you get IF the market keeps valuing the stock the same way: it contains no assumption about the market changing its mind. Computed per share, so buybacks count and a merger does not pass as growth. For a company that pays no dividend it is pure earnings growth per share. Period: earnings growth per share as CAGR over the last 5 reported fiscal years (annual statements), plus the current dividend yield. The start value is the median of the three years around the start, so a single crisis year (a pandemic or a write-down) does not distort the rate.
−15.2%
Earnings growth per share plus dividend.
Earnings per share, growth per year−15.2%
Dividend (yield on the price)0.0%
Profit margin 2020 to 2025 ⓘOperating margin then vs now, from reported annual statements. A falling margin after a boom year is the classic peak-earnings signal: the growth rate then leans on an inflated base.15% → 3%
Growth Forecast
Little optimism in the price
The price assumes less growth than the company has delivered so far.
What the price assumes ⓘThis turns our valuation around: instead of asking what the share is worth, it asks what growth the current price requires. It uses the cash the company keeps after all spending (free cash flow), the same discount rate as our models, five years of growth, then slowing evenly to 2 % a year by year ten. Compared with the analysts' sales forecasts extended to the same five years (at least three analysts, for context only, it does not enter the Fair Value): within 3 percentage points counts as "in line" (amber), below that little optimism (green), above that a lot of optimism (red).
+0.2%
Yearly growth needed for the next five years to justify today's price.
What forecasts expect
n/a
No analyst forecast available.
After inflation (Turkey: IMF forecast 19.3% a year to 2030, 28.5% from 2016 to 2025) that is about −16.0% a year for the price.
Price, fair value, quality and upside side by side.
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Peer GroupⓘHow this stock ranks against its industry: the green marker is this stock, the band is the typical 25–75% peer range, and the tick is the median.Packaged Foods · 627 stocks
Beats the industry median on 8/13 measures
Overall it ranks above its industry peers.
Valuation
Quality Score39 · Bottom 25%
Fair Value upside−22.9% · Below median
Profitability
Return on equity (12 months)9.9% · Above median
Return on assets1.2% · Below median
Net margin (12 months)7.1% · Above median
Operating margin (12 months)1.2% · Bottom 25%
Growth and dividend
Revenue growth (quarter YoY)6.2% · Above median
Balance sheet
Debt / equity0.20× · Above median
Valuation Multiplesvs Packaged Foods median · lower = cheaper
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Cite: Fair Value Calculator (2026). "Tat Gida Sanayi AS Fair Value". https://www.fairvalue-calculator.com/stock/TATGD
Frequently asked questions
Is Tat Gida Sanayi AS (TATGD) overvalued or undervalued?
As of Oct 29, 2026, our model estimates a fair value of 11.34 TRY versus a price of 14.70 TRY, about −23% upside (overvalued).
What is the fair value of TATGD?
Our model-based fair value for Tat Gida Sanayi AS is 11.34 TRY (as of Oct 29, 2026), built from audited fundamentals. The current price: 14.70 TRY.
What is the quality score of TATGD?
Tat Gida Sanayi AS has a Quality Score of 39/100. It measures business quality (profitability, growth, cash flow, balance-sheet strength, investment discipline, share issuance). Market factors such as price momentum and volatility do not enter the number; they are shown separately in the detail view.
What is the price target for Tat Gida Sanayi AS (TATGD)?
Our model-based price target is the fair value of 11.34 TRY (as of Oct 29, 2026) from 22 valuation models. Cautious scenario 8.50 TRY, optimistic scenario 14.17 TRY. It is a calculation from audited fundamentals, not an analyst target.
What is the Tat Gida Sanayi AS stock forecast for 2026?
Our models put fair value at 11.34 TRY, about −23% upside versus a price of 14.70 TRY (overvalued). Cautious scenario 8.50 TRY, optimistic scenario 14.17 TRY. The calculation is refreshed regularly with new filings.
What is the revenue of Tat Gida Sanayi AS (TATGD)?
Tat Gida Sanayi AS reported trailing-twelve-month revenue of about 8.4B TRY (latest available figure, as of Oct 29, 2026).
What growth is priced into Tat Gida Sanayi AS (TATGD)?
For today's price to be fair in a discounted-cash-flow model, Tat Gida Sanayi AS would have to grow free cash flow by +0.2 % per year for five years (discount rate 15.7 %, then slowing evenly to 2 % perpetual growth by year ten). Over the last 5 years revenue grew +59.1 % per year. As of Oct 29, 2026.
What discount rate (WACC) does the fair value of TATGD use?
Our models discount Tat Gida Sanayi AS at 15.7 %: a base by market capitalisation (micro), damped by beta 0.13, country premium for Turkey. The same rate applies in all 26 models.
What is a reverse DCF?
A reverse DCF turns the usual calculation around. Instead of deriving a value from assumptions, it takes today's price as given and asks: what free-cash-flow growth would a company have to deliver for exactly this price to be fair? The result is not a forecast but the expectation already priced in. For Tat Gida Sanayi AS that is +0.2 % per year a year over ten years, using the same discount rate (15.7 %) and the same formula as our fair value.
How much growth has Tat Gida Sanayi AS (TATGD) delivered so far?
Over the past 5 years revenue at Tat Gida Sanayi AS grew +59.1 % a year. The price currently implies +0.2 % per year free-cash-flow growth a year. Comparing the two shows how much confidence is in the price: if it demands more than has been delivered, the business has to accelerate for the maths to work.
How fast is the sector of Tat Gida Sanayi AS (TATGD) growing?
The median revenue growth in the sector is +3.3 % a year. That is the yardstick for the growth priced into Tat Gida Sanayi AS (+0.2 % per year a year): it shows whether the expectation is within the usual range or beyond it.
What is the free cash flow yield of Tat Gida Sanayi AS (TATGD)?
The free-cash-flow yield on the price is 29.43 %: that much free cash flow Tat Gida Sanayi AS produces per unit of market value. When it exceeds the discount rate of our models (15.7 %), the business already earns more than its cost of capital demands, and the price needs little additional growth.
What is the intrinsic value of Tat Gida Sanayi AS (TATGD)?
Intrinsic value and fair value mean the same thing: what the business is worth on its numbers, independent of the share price. For Tat Gida Sanayi AS it is 11.34 TRY per share (as of Oct 29, 2026), against a price of 14.70 TRY. It is the blended result of 22 valuation models (cash flow, earnings, asset, dividend).
Is Tat Gida Sanayi AS stock overvalued or undervalued in 2026?
As of Oct 29, 2026, TATGD trades above its calculated fair value: price 14.70 TRY, fair value 11.34 TRY, a gap of about −23% (overvalued). The calculation is refreshed with each new quarterly report, so the verdict can change during the year.
Is fair value the same as the market price of TATGD?
No. The price is what the market pays today (14.70 TRY); the fair value is what the company's own numbers justify (11.34 TRY). For Tat Gida Sanayi AS the two are 3.36 TRY per share apart. That gap is exactly why we show both numbers side by side.
How much is Tat Gida Sanayi AS worth?
The market values Tat Gida Sanayi AS at about 3.6B TRY (market capitalisation, as of Oct 29, 2026). Per share that is 14.70 TRY; our models calculate a fair value of 11.34 TRY per share.
What do the bullish and bearish scenarios say about TATGD?
Our models span a range for Tat Gida Sanayi AS: cautious scenario 8.50 TRY, base 11.34 TRY, optimistic 14.17 TRY per share (as of Oct 29, 2026, price 14.70 TRY). The range comes from different growth and margin assumptions, not from analyst opinions.
What is the P/E ratio of TATGD?
Tat Gida Sanayi AS trades at a price-to-earnings ratio of 6.6 (as of Oct 29, 2026). A P/E on its own says little: it compares the price with ONE year of profit, while our fair value of 11.34 TRY is built from several models across several years. Other multiples: P/B 0.8, P/S 0.4, EV/EBITDA 3.5.
How solid is the balance sheet of Tat Gida Sanayi AS (TATGD)?
Balance-sheet figures for Tat Gida Sanayi AS (as of Oct 29, 2026): return on equity 9.9%, debt of 0.20 per unit of equity. They feed the Quality Score of 39/100, which measures business quality independently of the share price.
How far is TATGD from its 52-week high?
Tat Gida Sanayi AS trades at 14.70 TRY, about 36% below its 52-week high of 23.00 TRY and 25% above the low of 11.75 TRY (as of Oct 28, 2026). Distance from the high says nothing about value: that is what the fair value of 11.34 TRY is for.
Which stocks are comparable to Tat Gida Sanayi AS?
From the same area (Consumer Defensive) we also value Nestlé S.A, Danone S.A, Foshan Haitian Flavouring and Food Company, The Kraft Heinz Company, among others. Each of them has its own fair-value calculation on this site using the same models, so the comparison is like for like.
Is Tat Gida Sanayi AS stock attractive at the current price?
The data as of Oct 29, 2026: price 14.70 TRY, calculated fair value 11.34 TRY (−23%), Quality Score 39/100, from 22 models. Whether that fits your horizon and risk tolerance is your call. We provide the calculation, not investment advice.
How is the fair value of TATGD calculated?
We run Tat Gida Sanayi AS through 22 models from four families: discounted cash flow, earnings models, asset and balance-sheet models, and dividend models. Every model gets the same audited fundamentals; the result is the weighted average of 11.34 TRY, with the spread shown as a cautious and an optimistic scenario.
Is it still worth investing in stocks now?
The global stock market currently sits 13.1 % above its aggregate fair value. Tat Gida Sanayi AS itself currently trades above fair value. An expensive market is no reason to stay out and no reason to buy everything at once: keep a broad savings plan running, buy single stocks only with money you can do without, and hold part of your money liquid while the market is high. The full picture including sectors is on is it worth investing now.
What is the share price of Tat Gida Sanayi AS (TATGD)?
The closing price on Oct 28, 2026 was 14.70 TRY. Our model-based fair value is 11.34 TRY, about −23% upside (overvalued). We carry closing prices from our data provider, not a live tick.
What should I pay attention to with Tat Gida Sanayi AS right now?
The price sits above even our optimistic bull case (14.17 TRY). The favourable scenario is already priced in. Weak quality (39/100) and above fair value at the same time, the margin of safety is missing on both counts. Evidence is limited here (fewer models, shorter history), so the fair value is a rougher estimate than usual.
Key figures of Tat Gida Sanayi AS
How large is the market capitalisation of Tat Gida Sanayi AS (TATGD)?
The market capitalisation of Tat Gida Sanayi AS is 3.6B TRY (≈ $72.0M). The stock-market value of the whole company: share price times number of shares. It is what the market asks for the entire business today.
What is the P/S ratio of Tat Gida Sanayi AS (TATGD)?
The price-to-sales ratio of Tat Gida Sanayi AS is 0.43 (last twelve months). Price to sales: market value relative to yearly revenue. Useful when profit is thin or distorted.
What are the earnings per share of Tat Gida Sanayi AS (TATGD)?
Earnings per share at Tat Gida Sanayi AS are 2.24 TRY (price ÷ EPS = P/E 6.6). Earnings per share over the last twelve months: total profit spread across every single share.
What is the net margin of Tat Gida Sanayi AS (TATGD)?
The net margin of Tat Gida Sanayi AS is 7.1% (last twelve months). How much of every unit of revenue ends up as profit. 10% means 10 cents of profit per dollar of sales.
What is the return on equity of Tat Gida Sanayi AS (TATGD)?
The return on equity (ROE) of Tat Gida Sanayi AS is 9.9% (last twelve months). Profit relative to shareholders' equity, how efficiently the company works with its owners' money.
What is the EBIT return on assets of Tat Gida Sanayi AS (TATGD)?
On an EBIT basis the return on assets of Tat Gida Sanayi AS is 1.5% (avg 5y). Operating profit (EBIT) relative to everything the company owns, as a multi-year average. It describes the business model rather than one good or bad year.
What is the operating margin of Tat Gida Sanayi AS (TATGD)?
The operating margin of Tat Gida Sanayi AS is 1.2% (last twelve months). Profit from the core business (before interest and taxes) relative to revenue.
How fast is revenue growing at Tat Gida Sanayi AS (TATGD)?
Revenue at Tat Gida Sanayi AS is growing +6.2% versus a year earlier (3y avg +43.2%). How much revenue grew versus a year earlier (YoY). The 3-year average next to it puts the single year in context.
How fast are earnings growing at Tat Gida Sanayi AS (TATGD)?
Earnings per share at Tat Gida Sanayi AS are growing −44.5% versus a year earlier. How much earnings per share grew versus a year earlier.
How much net debt does Tat Gida Sanayi AS (TATGD) carry?
The net debt of Tat Gida Sanayi AS is 3.6B TRY (fiscal year 2025, ≈ 3.4 yrs of FCF). Debt minus cash on hand. The note shows how many years of free cash flow could in theory pay it off.
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Thin data
Oct 29, 2026