Tat Gida Sanayi AS (TATGD) fair value: what the stock is really worth
We calculate from audited financials what Tat Gida Sanayi AS is really worth. The fair value tells you whether the price is too high or too low, the quality score (0 to 100) how solid the business behind it is. 26 models, 37 quality factors, updated daily.
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Tat Gida Sanayi A.S., together with its subsidiaries, manufactures and sells tomato products in Turkey and internationally. The company offers tomato paste, ketchup sauces, convenience food, pickles, canned food, and ready meals.
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Tat Gida Sanayi A.S., together with its subsidiaries, manufactures and sells tomato products in Turkey and internationally. The company offers tomato paste, ketchup sauces, convenience food, pickles, canned food, and ready meals. It also engages in the production, distribution, marketing, trading, and brokerage of commercial goods; food; beverages; agricultural and animal food products in frozen, dried, and powdered forms; raw materials; auxiliary and additive materials; sugary and sugar-free juices and preserves; and semi-finished and finished products. The company exports its products. The company was formerly known as Tat Konserve Sanayii AS. and changed its name to Tat Gida Sanayi A.S. in November 2013. Tat Gida Sanayi A.S. was founded in 1967 and is headquartered in Istanbul, Turkey.
Stock analysis
Tat Gida Sanayi AS (TATGD) currently trades at 17.74 TRY, while our model-based Fair Value estimate is 19.61 TRY, implying the stock looks roughly 9.6% undervalued today.
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Valuation
Bull case: the DCF Models group reads highest at a median of 50.07 TRY per share, and 12 of the 26 models we run sit above the 17.74 TRY price.
Bear case: the Dividend Discount group reads lowest at 3.49 TRY, and 14 of the 26 models stay below the price. Evidence for this calculation is low.
Scenario range: 17.28 TRY (bear) to 25.50 TRY (bull), the price of 17.74 TRY sits inside it. Bear and bull are the same models on cautious and optimistic assumptions, a range, not a price target.
Quality & growth
The Quality Score stands at 40/100 (below-average quality), in the Consumer Defensive sector.
Mixed Growth: Revenue is growing, but margins or cash flow do not fully confirm the trend.
Tat Gida Sanayi AS reported revenue of 8.2B TRL in FY2025 versus 1.1B TRL in FY2021, a compound +65.5%/yr. Reported net income was 132M TRL in FY2025, compounding −12.3%/yr from FY2021.
Key figures
Market cap 4.3B TRY (≈ $89.5M) · P/E ratio 12.3 · P/S ratio 0.20 · EPS (TTM) 1.44 TRY · Dividend yield 1.3% · Net margin 1.6% · Return on equity 6.4% · Return on assets (EBIT) 1.5%.
Competitive moat
Our AI-assisted moat analysis scores the competitive advantage at 50 out of 100 (low confidence).
What moves the price
The share trades about 24% below its 52-week high and 52% above its 52-week low, currently above its 200-day average.
For context, the median of 10 Consumer Defensive peers we cover trades at −8% fair-value upside, at 11%, TATGD screens cheaper than that median.
Fair Value models
Bear 17.28 TRYFair Value 19.61 TRYBull 25.50 TRY
Model ⓘEach model values the company its own way (discounted cash flow, earnings, assets, dividends). The fair value above is their evidence-weighted blend, not the output of a single model. Based on fiscal year 2025 figures (about 8 months old). Earnings retained since then (1.02 TRY per share) are deliberately not added.Bear ⓘBear = the cautious scenario: the same model computed with conservative anchors (lower growth, margins and valuation multiples). Together with Bull it frames a plausible valuation range, not a price target.BaseBull ⓘBull = the optimistic scenario: the same model computed with favourable anchors (higher growth, margins and valuation multiples). Together with Bear it frames a plausible valuation range, not a price target.Evidence ⓘEvidence = how well-backed THIS model's estimate is for this stock (0–100): how complete and reliable its input data are, and how well the model fits the company. The final Fair Value is an evidence-weighted blend, so better-evidenced models count more. Green ≥70, amber 50–69, grey below 50.
Growth Quality ⓘGrowth is valuable only when reinvestment earns attractive returns (Aswath Damodaran): sustainable growth depends on return on capital, reinvestment and efficiency. Basis: total company revenue over the periods shown on the cards (3Y/5Y/all years), not per share, so a merger can show up as a growth jump; per-share earnings growth is in the value-creation card.76/100
Revenue is growing, but margins or cash flow do not fully confirm the trend.
Revenue growth 1 year
−1.2%
Revenue growth 3 years ⓘMeasures the company's TOTAL revenue from reported annual statements: compound average growth per year (CAGR) from the fiscal year 3, 5 or N years back to the most recent comparable fiscal year. Not per share: buybacks do not change this number, and a merger can appear as a growth jump. Per-share growth (which does include buybacks) is in the value-creation card.
+43.2%
Revenue growth 5 years ⓘMeasures the company's TOTAL revenue from reported annual statements: compound average growth per year (CAGR) from the fiscal year 3, 5 or N years back to the most recent comparable fiscal year. Not per share: buybacks do not change this number, and a merger can appear as a growth jump. Per-share growth (which does include buybacks) is in the value-creation card.
+59.1%
Revenue growth 25 years ⓘMeasures the company's TOTAL revenue from reported annual statements: compound average growth per year (CAGR) from the fiscal year 3, 5 or N years back to the most recent comparable fiscal year. Not per share: buybacks do not change this number, and a merger can appear as a growth jump. Per-share growth (which does include buybacks) is in the value-creation card.
−28.9%
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What shareholders gained per year (last 5 years) ⓘWhat the business itself delivers per year: earnings growth per share plus the dividend yield. This is what you get IF the market keeps valuing the stock the same way: it contains no assumption about the market changing its mind. Computed per share, so buybacks count and a merger does not pass as growth. For a company that pays no dividend it is pure earnings growth per share. Period: earnings growth per share as CAGR over the last 5 reported fiscal years (annual statements), plus the current dividend yield. The start value is the median of the three years around the start, so a single crisis year (a pandemic or a write-down) does not distort the rate.
−13.9%
Earnings growth per share plus dividend.
Earnings per share, growth per year−15.2%
Dividend (yield on the price)1.3%
Profit margin 2020 to 2025 ⓘOperating margin then vs now, from reported annual statements. A falling margin after a boom year is the classic peak-earnings signal: the growth rate then leans on an inflated base.15% → 3%
Growth Forecast
Little optimism in the price
The price assumes less growth than the company has delivered so far.
What the price assumes ⓘThis turns our valuation around: instead of asking what the share is worth, it asks what growth the current price requires. It uses the cash the company keeps after all spending (free cash flow), the same discount rate as our models, five years of growth, then slowing evenly to 2 % a year by year ten. Compared with the analysts' sales forecasts extended to the same five years (at least three analysts, for context only, it does not enter the Fair Value): within 3 percentage points counts as "in line" (amber), below that little optimism (green), above that a lot of optimism (red).
+2.2%
Yearly growth needed for the next five years to justify today's price.
Price, fair value, quality and upside side by side.
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Peer GroupⓘHow this stock ranks against its industry: the green marker is this stock, the band is the typical 25–75% peer range, and the tick is the median.Packaged Foods · 648 stocks
Beats the industry median on 8/14 measures
A mixed picture versus its industry peers.
Valuation
Quality Score40 · Bottom 25%
Fair Value upside−39% · Below median
Profitability
Return on equity (TTM)6% · Below median
Return on assets4% · Above median
Net margin (TTM)4% · Above median
Operating margin (TTM)7% · Above median
Growth and dividend
Revenue growth2% · Below median
Dividend yield (TTM)1.3% · Bottom 25%
Balance sheet
Debt / equity0.20× · Above median
Valuation Multiplesvs Packaged Foods median · lower = cheaper
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Cite: Fair Value Calculator (2026). "Tat Gida Sanayi AS Fair Value". https://www.fairvalue-calculator.com/stock/TATGD
Frequently asked questions
Is Tat Gida Sanayi AS (TATGD) overvalued or undervalued?
As of Sep 13, 2026, our model estimates a fair value of 19.61 TRY versus a price of 17.74 TRY, about +11% upside (undervalued).
What is the fair value of TATGD?
Our model-based fair value for Tat Gida Sanayi AS is 19.61 TRY (as of Sep 13, 2026), built from audited fundamentals. The current price: 17.74 TRY.
What is the quality score of TATGD?
Tat Gida Sanayi AS has a Quality Score of 40/100. It measures business quality (profitability, growth, cash flow, balance-sheet strength, investment discipline, share issuance). Market factors such as price momentum and volatility do not enter the number; they are shown separately in the detail view.
What is the price target for Tat Gida Sanayi AS (TATGD)?
Our model-based price target is the fair value of 19.61 TRY (as of Sep 13, 2026) from 26 valuation models. Cautious scenario 17.28 TRY, optimistic scenario 25.50 TRY. It is a calculation from audited fundamentals, not an analyst target.
What is the Tat Gida Sanayi AS stock forecast for 2026?
Our models put fair value at 19.61 TRY, about +11% upside versus a price of 17.74 TRY (undervalued). Cautious scenario 17.28 TRY, optimistic scenario 25.50 TRY. The calculation is refreshed regularly with new filings.
What is the revenue of Tat Gida Sanayi AS (TATGD)?
Tat Gida Sanayi AS reported trailing-twelve-month revenue of about 8.2B TRY (latest available figure, as of Sep 13, 2026).
Does Tat Gida Sanayi AS pay a dividend?
Tat Gida Sanayi AS currently shows a dividend yield of about 1.29% relative to its recent price (as of Sep 13, 2026).
What growth is priced into Tat Gida Sanayi AS (TATGD)?
For today's price to be fair in a discounted-cash-flow model, Tat Gida Sanayi AS would have to grow free cash flow by +2.2 % per year for five years (discount rate 15.7 %, then slowing evenly to 2 % perpetual growth by year ten). Over the last 5 years revenue grew +59.1 % per year. As of Sep 13, 2026.
What discount rate (WACC) does the fair value of TATGD use?
Our models discount Tat Gida Sanayi AS at 15.7 %: a base by market capitalisation (micro), damped by beta 0.06, country premium for Turkey. The same rate applies in all 26 models.
What is a reverse DCF?
A reverse DCF turns the usual calculation around. Instead of deriving a value from assumptions, it takes today's price as given and asks: what free-cash-flow growth would a company have to deliver for exactly this price to be fair? The result is not a forecast but the expectation already priced in. For Tat Gida Sanayi AS that is +2.2 % per year a year over ten years, using the same discount rate (15.7 %) and the same formula as our fair value.
How much growth has Tat Gida Sanayi AS (TATGD) delivered so far?
Over the past 5 years revenue at Tat Gida Sanayi AS grew +59.1 % a year. The price currently implies +2.2 % per year free-cash-flow growth a year. Comparing the two shows how much confidence is in the price: if it demands more than has been delivered, the business has to accelerate for the maths to work.
How fast is the sector of Tat Gida Sanayi AS (TATGD) growing?
The median revenue growth in the sector is +3.0 % a year. That is the yardstick for the growth priced into Tat Gida Sanayi AS (+2.2 % per year a year): it shows whether the expectation is within the usual range or beyond it.
What is the free cash flow yield of Tat Gida Sanayi AS (TATGD)?
The free-cash-flow yield on the price is 24.38 %: that much free cash flow Tat Gida Sanayi AS produces per unit of market value. When it exceeds the discount rate of our models (15.7 %), the business already earns more than its cost of capital demands, and the price needs little additional growth.
What is the intrinsic value of Tat Gida Sanayi AS (TATGD)?
Intrinsic value and fair value mean the same thing: what the business is worth on its numbers, independent of the share price. For Tat Gida Sanayi AS it is 19.61 TRY per share (as of Sep 13, 2026), against a price of 17.74 TRY. It is the blended result of 26 valuation models (cash flow, earnings, asset, dividend).
Is Tat Gida Sanayi AS stock overvalued or undervalued in 2026?
As of Sep 13, 2026, TATGD trades below its calculated fair value: price 17.74 TRY, fair value 19.61 TRY, a gap of about +11% (undervalued). The calculation is refreshed with each new quarterly report, so the verdict can change during the year.
Is fair value the same as the market price of TATGD?
No. The price is what the market pays today (17.74 TRY); the fair value is what the company's own numbers justify (19.61 TRY). For Tat Gida Sanayi AS the two are 1.87 TRY per share apart. That gap is exactly why we show both numbers side by side.
How much is Tat Gida Sanayi AS worth?
The market values Tat Gida Sanayi AS at about 4.3B TRY (market capitalisation, as of Sep 13, 2026). Per share that is 17.74 TRY; our models calculate a fair value of 19.61 TRY per share.
What do the bullish and bearish scenarios say about TATGD?
Our models span a range for Tat Gida Sanayi AS: cautious scenario 17.28 TRY, base 19.61 TRY, optimistic 25.50 TRY per share (as of Sep 13, 2026, price 17.74 TRY). The range comes from different growth and margin assumptions, not from analyst opinions.
What is the P/E ratio of TATGD?
Tat Gida Sanayi AS trades at a price-to-earnings ratio of 12.3 (as of Sep 13, 2026). A P/E on its own says little: it compares the price with ONE year of profit, while our fair value of 19.61 TRY is built from several models across several years. Other multiples: P/B 1.0, P/S 0.5, EV/EBITDA 4.2.
How solid is the balance sheet of Tat Gida Sanayi AS (TATGD)?
Balance-sheet figures for Tat Gida Sanayi AS (as of Sep 13, 2026): return on equity 6.4%, debt of 0.20 per unit of equity. They feed the Quality Score of 40/100, which measures business quality independently of the share price.
How far is TATGD from its 52-week high?
Tat Gida Sanayi AS trades at 17.74 TRY, about 24% below its 52-week high of 23.34 TRY and 52% above the low of 11.65 TRY (as of Sep 13, 2026). Distance from the high says nothing about value: that is what the fair value of 19.61 TRY is for.
Which stocks are comparable to Tat Gida Sanayi AS?
From the same area (Consumer Defensive) we also value Nestlé S.A, Danone S.A, Nestlé India Limited, The Kraft Heinz Company, among others. Each of them has its own fair-value calculation on this site using the same models, so the comparison is like for like.
Is Tat Gida Sanayi AS stock attractive at the current price?
The data as of Sep 13, 2026: price 17.74 TRY, calculated fair value 19.61 TRY (+11%), Quality Score 40/100, from 26 models. Whether that fits your horizon and risk tolerance is your call. We provide the calculation, not investment advice.
How is the fair value of TATGD calculated?
We run Tat Gida Sanayi AS through 26 models from four families: discounted cash flow, earnings models, asset and balance-sheet models, and dividend models. Every model gets the same audited fundamentals; the result is the weighted average of 19.61 TRY, with the spread shown as a cautious and an optimistic scenario.
Is it still worth investing in stocks now?
The global stock market currently sits 15.6 % above its aggregate fair value. Tat Gida Sanayi AS currently trades 11 % below its own fair value, and the market average says nothing about that. An expensive market is no reason to stay out and no reason to buy everything at once: keep a broad savings plan running, buy single stocks only with money you can do without, and hold part of your money liquid while the market is high. The full picture including sectors is on is it worth investing now.
What is the share price of Tat Gida Sanayi AS (TATGD)?
The closing price on Sep 14, 2026 was 17.74 TRY. Our model-based fair value is 19.61 TRY, about +11% upside (undervalued). We carry closing prices from our data provider, not a live tick.
What should I pay attention to with Tat Gida Sanayi AS right now?
Evidence is limited here (fewer models, shorter history), so the fair value is a rougher estimate than usual. The price sits in the lower half of our model range, the side with the larger margin of safety. Read the verdict with care: some models are missing inputs, so the estimate scatters more than usual.
Key figures of Tat Gida Sanayi AS
How large is the market capitalisation of Tat Gida Sanayi AS (TATGD)?
The market capitalisation of Tat Gida Sanayi AS is 4.3B TRY (≈ $89.5M). The stock-market value of the whole company: share price times number of shares. It is what the market asks for the entire business today.
What is the P/S ratio of Tat Gida Sanayi AS (TATGD)?
The price-to-sales ratio of Tat Gida Sanayi AS is 0.20 (P/E × margin). Price to sales: market value relative to yearly revenue. Useful when profit is thin or distorted.
What are the earnings per share of Tat Gida Sanayi AS (TATGD)?
Earnings per share at Tat Gida Sanayi AS are 1.44 TRY (price ÷ EPS = P/E 12.3). Earnings per share over the last twelve months: total profit spread across every single share.
What is the dividend yield of Tat Gida Sanayi AS (TATGD)?
The dividend yield of Tat Gida Sanayi AS is 1.3% (payout 15.9%). Yearly dividend relative to the share price. 3% pays 3 per 100 invested. Below: how much of profit is used for it.
What is the net margin of Tat Gida Sanayi AS (TATGD)?
The net margin of Tat Gida Sanayi AS is 1.6% (fiscal year 2025). How much of every unit of revenue ends up as profit. 10% means 10 cents of profit per dollar of sales.
What is the return on equity of Tat Gida Sanayi AS (TATGD)?
The return on equity (ROE) of Tat Gida Sanayi AS is 6.4% (last twelve months). Profit relative to shareholders' equity, how efficiently the company works with its owners' money.
What is the EBIT return on assets of Tat Gida Sanayi AS (TATGD)?
On an EBIT basis the return on assets of Tat Gida Sanayi AS is 1.5% (avg 5y). Operating profit (EBIT) relative to everything the company owns, as a multi-year average. It describes the business model rather than one good or bad year.
What is the operating margin of Tat Gida Sanayi AS (TATGD)?
The operating margin of Tat Gida Sanayi AS is 7.1% (last twelve months). Profit from the core business (before interest and taxes) relative to revenue.
How fast is revenue growing at Tat Gida Sanayi AS (TATGD)?
Revenue at Tat Gida Sanayi AS is growing +2.4% versus a year earlier (3y avg +43.2%). How much revenue grew versus a year earlier (YoY). The 3-year average next to it puts the single year in context.
How fast are earnings growing at Tat Gida Sanayi AS (TATGD)?
Earnings per share at Tat Gida Sanayi AS are growing −44.5% versus a year earlier. How much earnings per share grew versus a year earlier.
How much net debt does Tat Gida Sanayi AS (TATGD) carry?
The net debt of Tat Gida Sanayi AS is 3.6B TRY (fiscal year 2025, ≈ 3.4 yrs of FCF). Debt minus cash on hand. The note shows how many years of free cash flow could in theory pay it off.
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