Tecogen Inc. (TGEN) fair value: what the stock is really worth
As of Oct 2, 2026: fair value of Tecogen Inc. $0.45, price $2.65, upside -83.0%, quality 39 out of 100. Calculated from audited financials with 26 valuation models and 37 quality factors, updated daily.
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Price vs Fair Value
White line = price, green steps = our fair value per fiscal year, dashed = 300-day average. As of Sep 24, 2026.
How to read this chart
60‑month range $0.6300 – $12.07 · fair‑value band $0.3000 – $0.5700 · the $2.65 price screens above the $0.4500 fair value. Green steps = our fair value per fiscal year (point-in-time, no hindsight). Dashed = 300-day average. As of Sep 24, 2026.
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Tecogen Inc., together with its subsidiaries, designs, manufactures, markets, and maintains cogeneration products for multi-family residential, commercial, recreational, and industrial use in the United States. It operates in three segments: Products, Services, and Energy Production.
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Tecogen Inc., together with its subsidiaries, designs, manufactures, markets, and maintains cogeneration products for multi-family residential, commercial, recreational, and industrial use in the United States. It operates in three segments: Products, Services, and Energy Production. The Products segment designs, manufactures, and sells industrial and commercial cogeneration systems to hospitals and nursing homes, schools and universities, health clubs and spas, hotels and motels, office and retail buildings, food and beverage processors, multi-unit residential buildings, laundries, ice rinks, swimming pools, factories, municipal buildings, indoor agriculture, military installations, and indoor growing facilities; and refrigeration compressors for cold storage, wineries, dairies, ice rinks, and food processing industries. Its Services segment provides operations and maintenance services; and parts sales, and installation services. The Energy Production segment installs, operates, and maintains distributed own generation electricity systems and sells the energy generated by such systems in the form of electricity, heat, hot water, and cooling to its customers under long-term energy sales agreements. The company also offers natural gas-powered cogeneration systems for water and space heating, and/or air conditioning. Its product portfolio includes InVerde e+ and TecoPower cogeneration units for the supply electricity and hot water; Tecochill, an air-conditioning and refrigeration chiller, and hybrid-drive air-cooled and gas engine-driven chiller to produce chilled water and hot water; Tecofrost, a gas engine-driven refrigeration compressor to circulate refrigerant and provide hot water as a byproduct; and Ultera, an emissions control technology. It sells its products through in-house marketing, as well as independent sales agents and representatives. Tecogen Inc. was incorporated in 2000 and is headquartered in North Billerica, Massachusetts.
Stock analysis
Tecogen Inc. (TGEN) currently trades at $2.65, while our model-based Fair Value estimate is $0.4500, 83.0% below the price, so the stock looks overvalued today.
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Valuation
How firm this estimate is: it rests on 1 models at a data quality of 94/100, which puts the evidence level at low.
Scenario range: $0.3000 (bear) to $0.5700 (bull), the price of $2.65 sits above it. Bear and bull are the same models on cautious and optimistic assumptions, a range, not a price target.
Quality & growth
The Quality Score stands at 39/100 (below-average quality), in the Industrials sector.
Weak Growth: Revenue growth is weak: less than 2 % a year.
Tecogen Inc. reported revenue of $27.1M in FY2025 versus $24.4M in FY2021, a compound +2.6%/yr. Reported net income was −$8.2M in FY2025.
Key figures
Market cap $181M · P/S ratio 6.93 · EPS (TTM) $−0.3400 · Net margin −30.5% · Return on equity −66.8% · Return on assets (EBIT) −12.4% · Operating margin −33.7% · Revenue (TTM) $26.1M.
Competitive moat
Our AI-assisted moat analysis scores the competitive advantage at 37 out of 100 (low confidence).
What moves the price
The share trades about 78% below its 52-week high and 33% above its 52-week low, currently below its 200-day average.
For context, the median of 10 Industrials peers we cover trades at −42% fair-value upside, at −83%, TGEN screens richer than that median.
Fair Value models
Bear $0.3000Fair Value $0.4500Bull $0.5700
Model ⓘEach model values the company its own way (discounted cash flow, earnings, assets, dividends). The fair value above is their evidence-weighted blend, not the output of a single model.Bear ⓘBear = the cautious scenario: the same model computed with conservative anchors (lower growth, margins and valuation multiples). Together with Bull it frames a plausible valuation range, not a price target.BaseBull ⓘBull = the optimistic scenario: the same model computed with favourable anchors (higher growth, margins and valuation multiples). Together with Bear it frames a plausible valuation range, not a price target. If a model's bull case is above four times its base value, the table shows that limit with a > sign (like the overall Bull above): beyond it no assumption holds.Evidence ⓘEvidence = how well-backed THIS model's estimate is for this stock (0–100): how complete and reliable its input data are, and how well the model fits the company. The final Fair Value is an evidence-weighted blend, so better-evidenced models count more. Green ≥70, amber 50–69, grey below 50.
Growth Quality ⓘGrowth is valuable only when reinvestment earns attractive returns (Aswath Damodaran): sustainable growth depends on return on capital, reinvestment and efficiency. Basis: total company revenue over the periods shown on the cards (3Y/5Y/all years), not per share, so a merger can show up as a growth jump; per-share earnings growth is in the value-creation card.9/100
Revenue growth is weak: less than 2 % a year.
Revenue growth 1 year
+19.7%
Revenue growth 3 years ⓘMeasures the company's TOTAL revenue from reported annual statements: compound average growth per year (CAGR) from the fiscal year 3, 5 or N years back to the most recent comparable fiscal year. Not per share: buybacks do not change this number, and a merger can appear as a growth jump. Per-share growth (which does include buybacks) is in the value-creation card.
+2.7%
Revenue growth 5 years ⓘMeasures the company's TOTAL revenue from reported annual statements: compound average growth per year (CAGR) from the fiscal year 3, 5 or N years back to the most recent comparable fiscal year. Not per share: buybacks do not change this number, and a merger can appear as a growth jump. Per-share growth (which does include buybacks) is in the value-creation card.
−0.9%
Start year 2020 (pandemic). Over 10 years: +2.4% a year
Revenue growth 15 years ⓘMeasures the company's TOTAL revenue from reported annual statements: compound average growth per year (CAGR) from the fiscal year 3, 5 or N years back to the most recent comparable fiscal year. Not per share: buybacks do not change this number, and a merger can appear as a growth jump. Per-share growth (which does include buybacks) is in the value-creation card.
+6.0%
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Profit margin (trend) ⓘOperating margin then vs now, from reported annual statements. A falling margin after a boom year is the classic peak-earnings signal: the growth rate then leans on an inflated base.
−21.1% (2020) → −26.3% (2025)
What shareholders gained per year ⓘWe only publish this rate when it is defensible. Reason: fiscal 2025 is a loss year, no rate is defined from a loss
Price, fair value, quality and upside side by side.
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Peer GroupⓘHow this stock ranks against its industry: the green marker is this stock, the band is the typical 25–75% peer range, and the tick is the median.Electrical Equipment & Parts · 540 stocks
Beats the industry median on 1/9 measures
Overall it trails its industry peers.
Valuation
Quality Score43 · Bottom 25%
Fair Value upside−83.0% · Bottom 25%
Profitability
Return on assets−16.9% · Bottom 25%
Net margin (TTM)−37.2% · Bottom 25%
Operating margin (TTM)−33.7% · Bottom 25%
Growth and dividend
Revenue growth−12.9% · Bottom 25%
Balance sheet
Debt / equity0.05× · Below median
Valuation Multiplesvs Electrical Equipment & Parts median · lower = cheaper
P/B8.36× · Priciest 25%
P/S (TTM)6.93× · Priciest 25%
Strength profile in five axes (Snowflake)
This stockSector peers
VALUE (fair-value potential)0· sector 0
FUTURE (revenue growth)0· sector 56
PAST (return on equity)0· sector 27
HEALTH (low debt)98· sector 97
DIVIDEND (yield)0· sector 23
VALUE 0: the price sits above our fair-value range.
For bloggers, editors and developers: paste this into your site or blog (a “Custom HTML” block in WordPress), it shows the current fair value and links back here. Free, plain HTML, and welcome. Full data streams (CSV/JSON) at /developers.
Cite: Fair Value Calculator (2026). "Tecogen Inc. Fair Value". https://www.fairvalue-calculator.com/stock/TGEN
Frequently asked questions
Is Tecogen Inc. (TGEN) overvalued or undervalued?
As of Sep 24, 2026, our model estimates a fair value of $0.4500 versus a price of $2.65, about −83% upside (overvalued).
What is the fair value of TGEN?
Our model-based fair value for Tecogen Inc. is $0.4500 (as of Sep 24, 2026), built from audited fundamentals. The current price: $2.65.
What is the quality score of TGEN?
Tecogen Inc. has a Quality Score of 39/100. It measures business quality (profitability, growth, cash flow, balance-sheet strength, investment discipline, share issuance). Market factors such as price momentum and volatility do not enter the number; they are shown separately in the detail view.
What is the price target for Tecogen Inc. (TGEN)?
Our model-based price target is the fair value of $0.4500 (as of Sep 24, 2026) from 1 valuation models. Cautious scenario $0.3000, optimistic scenario $0.5700. It is a calculation from audited fundamentals, not an analyst target.
What is the Tecogen Inc. stock forecast for 2026?
Our models put fair value at $0.4500, about −83% upside versus a price of $2.65 (overvalued). Cautious scenario $0.3000, optimistic scenario $0.5700. The calculation is refreshed regularly with new filings.
What is the revenue of Tecogen Inc. (TGEN)?
Tecogen Inc. reported trailing-twelve-month revenue of about $26.1M (latest available figure, as of Sep 24, 2026).
What is the intrinsic value of Tecogen Inc. (TGEN)?
Intrinsic value and fair value mean the same thing: what the business is worth on its numbers, independent of the share price. For Tecogen Inc. it is $0.4500 per share (as of Sep 24, 2026), against a price of $2.65. It is the blended result of 1 valuation models (cash flow, earnings, asset, dividend).
Is Tecogen Inc. stock overvalued or undervalued in 2026?
As of Sep 24, 2026, TGEN trades above its calculated fair value: price $2.65, fair value $0.4500, a gap of about −83% (overvalued). The calculation is refreshed with each new quarterly report, so the verdict can change during the year.
Is fair value the same as the market price of TGEN?
No. The price is what the market pays today ($2.65); the fair value is what the company's own numbers justify ($0.4500). For Tecogen Inc. the two are $2.20 per share apart. That gap is exactly why we show both numbers side by side.
How much is Tecogen Inc. worth?
The market values Tecogen Inc. at about $181M (market capitalisation, as of Sep 24, 2026). Per share that is $2.65; our models calculate a fair value of $0.4500 per share.
What do the bullish and bearish scenarios say about TGEN?
Our models span a range for Tecogen Inc.: cautious scenario $0.3000, base $0.4500, optimistic $0.5700 per share (as of Sep 24, 2026, price $2.65). The range comes from different growth and margin assumptions, not from analyst opinions.
How solid is the balance sheet of Tecogen Inc. (TGEN)?
Balance-sheet figures for Tecogen Inc. (as of Sep 24, 2026): return on equity −66.8%, debt of 0.05 per unit of equity. They feed the Quality Score of 39/100, which measures business quality independently of the share price.
How far is TGEN from its 52-week high?
Tecogen Inc. trades at $2.65, about 78% below its 52-week high of $12.07 and 33% above the low of $2.00 (as of Oct 2, 2026). Distance from the high says nothing about value: that is what the fair value of $0.4500 is for.
Which stocks are comparable to Tecogen Inc.?
From the same area (Industrials) we also value Contemporary Amperex Technology Co, ABB Ltd, Delta Electronics (Thailand) Public Company, Vertiv Holdings, among others. Each of them has its own fair-value calculation on this site using the same models, so the comparison is like for like.
Is Tecogen Inc. stock attractive at the current price?
The data as of Sep 24, 2026: price $2.65, calculated fair value $0.4500 (−83%), Quality Score 39/100, from 1 models. Whether that fits your horizon and risk tolerance is your call. We provide the calculation, not investment advice.
How is the fair value of TGEN calculated?
We run Tecogen Inc. through 1 models from four families: discounted cash flow, earnings models, asset and balance-sheet models, and dividend models. Every model gets the same audited fundamentals; the result is the weighted average of $0.4500, with the spread shown as a cautious and an optimistic scenario.
Is it still worth investing in stocks now?
The global stock market currently sits 14.5 % above its aggregate fair value. Tecogen Inc. itself currently trades above fair value. An expensive market is no reason to stay out and no reason to buy everything at once: keep a broad savings plan running, buy single stocks only with money you can do without, and hold part of your money liquid while the market is high. The full picture including sectors is on is it worth investing now.
What is the share price of Tecogen Inc. (TGEN)?
The closing price on Oct 2, 2026 was $2.65. Our model-based fair value is $0.4500, about −83% upside (overvalued). We carry closing prices from our data provider, not a live tick.
What should I pay attention to with Tecogen Inc. right now?
The price sits above even our optimistic bull case ($0.5700). The favourable scenario is already priced in. Weak quality (39/100) and above fair value at the same time, the margin of safety is missing on both counts. The large gap to fair value rests on thin data (low evidence): fewer applicable models and a shorter history. Read it with extra caution. A fairly wide model range ($0.3000 to $0.5700) leaves room in how you read the outcome.
Key figures of Tecogen Inc.
How large is the market capitalisation of Tecogen Inc. (TGEN)?
The market capitalisation of Tecogen Inc. is $181M. The stock-market value of the whole company: share price times number of shares. It is what the market asks for the entire business today.
What is the P/S ratio of Tecogen Inc. (TGEN)?
The price-to-sales ratio of Tecogen Inc. is 6.93 (last twelve months). Price to sales: market value relative to yearly revenue. Useful when profit is thin or distorted.
What are the earnings per share of Tecogen Inc. (TGEN)?
Earnings per share at Tecogen Inc. are $−0.3400. Earnings per share over the last twelve months: total profit spread across every single share.
What is the net margin of Tecogen Inc. (TGEN)?
The net margin of Tecogen Inc. is −30.5% (fiscal year 2025). How much of every unit of revenue ends up as profit. 10% means 10 cents of profit per dollar of sales.
What is the return on equity of Tecogen Inc. (TGEN)?
The return on equity (ROE) of Tecogen Inc. is −66.8% (last twelve months). Profit relative to shareholders' equity, how efficiently the company works with its owners' money.
What is the EBIT return on assets of Tecogen Inc. (TGEN)?
On an EBIT basis the return on assets of Tecogen Inc. is −12.4% (avg 5y). Operating profit (EBIT) relative to everything the company owns, as a multi-year average. It describes the business model rather than one good or bad year.
What is the operating margin of Tecogen Inc. (TGEN)?
The operating margin of Tecogen Inc. is −33.7% (last twelve months). Profit from the core business (before interest and taxes) relative to revenue.
How fast is revenue growing at Tecogen Inc. (TGEN)?
Revenue at Tecogen Inc. is growing −12.9% versus a year earlier (3y avg +2.7%). How much revenue grew versus a year earlier (YoY). The 3-year average next to it puts the single year in context.
How fast are earnings growing at Tecogen Inc. (TGEN)?
Earnings per share at Tecogen Inc. are growing −94.9% versus a year earlier. How much earnings per share grew versus a year earlier.
How much free cash flow does Tecogen Inc. (TGEN) generate?
The free cash flow of Tecogen Inc. is −$10.3M (fiscal year 2025). The cash truly left after running and investing in the business, this is what pays dividends and buybacks.
How much net cash does Tecogen Inc. (TGEN) hold?
Tecogen Inc. holds more cash than debt, $9.6M net (fiscal year 2025). The company holds more cash than debt, a safety cushion.
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Thin data
Sep 24, 2026