Tribeca Global Natural Resources Ltd (TGF) fair value: what the stock is really worth
As of Nov 9, 2026: fair value (intrinsic value) of Tribeca Global Natural Resources Ltd stock A$2.62, price A$2.27, upside +15.4%, quality 74 out of 100. Rating: undervalued. Calculated from audited financials with 2 of our 26 valuation models and 37 quality factors, updated daily.
69 individual criteria per stock, every one traceableSee the method →
Price vs Fair Value
White line = price, green steps = our fair value per fiscal year. As of Nov 9, 2026.
How to read this chart
60‑month range A$1.08 – A$3.04 · fair‑value band A$1.97 – A$3.28 · the A$2.27 price screens below the A$2.62 fair value. Green steps = our fair value per fiscal year (point-in-time, no hindsight). As of Nov 9, 2026.
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Tribeca Global Natural Resources Limited is an investment firm specializing in infrastructure investments. Tribeca Global Natural Resources Limited is headquartered in Sydney, New South Wales, Australia.
Stock analysis
Tribeca Global Natural Resources Ltd (TGF) currently trades at A$2.27, while our model-based Fair Value estimate is A$2.62, implying the stock looks roughly 13% undervalued today.
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Valuation
How firm this estimate is: it rests on 2 models at a data quality of 96/100, which puts the data coverage at high.
Scenario range: A$1.97 (bear) to A$3.28 (bull), the price of A$2.27 sits inside it. Bear and bull are the same models on cautious and optimistic assumptions, a range, not a price target.
Quality & growth
The Quality Score stands at 74/100 (solid quality), in the Financial Services sector.
Mixed Growth: Spin-off in 2026: revenue and profit before it include the divested business. Growth is measured afresh from 2026.
Tribeca Global Natural Resources Ltd reported revenue of A$4.1M in FY2026 versus −A$14.6M in FY2022. Reported net income was A$75.9M in FY2026.
Key figures
Market cap A$167M (≈ $115M) Micro · P/E ratio 2.2 · P/S ratio 1.21 · EPS (TTM) A$1.01 · Dividend yield 6.6% · Net margin 54.9% · Return on equity 38.3% · Return on assets (EBIT) 6.8% (5-year average).
Competitive moat
Our AI-assisted moat analysis scores the competitive advantage at 85 out of 100 (low confidence).
What moves the price
The share trades about 25% below its 52-week high and 27% above its 52-week low, currently below its 200-day average.
For context, the median of 10 Financial Services peers we cover trades at −16% fair-value upside, at 15%, TGF screens cheaper than that median.
Fair Value models
BearA$1.97Fair Value A$2.62BullA$3.28
Price A$2.27 · Upside +15.4%
Model ⓘEach model values the company its own way (discounted cash flow, earnings, assets, dividends). The fair value above starts from their evidence-weighted blend, not from a single model. In cyclical trough or peak years, after dilution or a stock split it is adjusted afterwards, so it can sit above or below the models. Based on fiscal year 2026 figures (about 4 months old). Earnings retained since then (A$0.3110 per share) are deliberately not added.Bear ⓘBear = the cautious scenario: the same model computed with conservative anchors (lower growth, margins and valuation multiples). Together with Bull it frames a plausible valuation range, not a price target.BaseBull ⓘBull = the optimistic scenario: the same model computed with favourable anchors (higher growth, margins and valuation multiples). Together with Bear it frames a plausible valuation range, not a price target. If a model's bull case is above four times its base value, the table shows that limit with a > sign (like the overall Bull above): beyond it no assumption holds.Coverage ⓘCoverage = how well-backed THIS model's estimate is for this stock (0–100): how complete and reliable its input data are, and how well the model fits the company. The final Fair Value is an evidence-weighted blend, so better-evidenced models count more. Green ≥70, amber 50–69, grey below 50.
Growth Quality ⓘGrowth is valuable only when reinvestment earns attractive returns (Aswath Damodaran): sustainable growth depends on return on capital, reinvestment and efficiency. Basis: total company revenue over the periods shown on the cards (3Y/5Y/all years), not per share, so a merger can show up as a growth jump; per-share earnings growth is in the value-creation card.55/100
Spin-off in 2026: revenue and profit before it include the divested business. Growth is measured afresh from 2026.
What shareholders gained per year (last 5 years) (mathematically smoothed) ⓘWhat the business itself delivers per year: earnings growth per share plus the dividend yield. This is what you get IF the market keeps valuing the stock the same way: it contains no assumption about the market changing its mind. Computed per share, so buybacks count and a merger does not pass as growth. For a company that pays no dividend it is pure earnings growth per share. Period: earnings growth per share as CAGR over the last 5 reported fiscal years (annual statements), plus the current dividend yield. The start value is the median of the three years around the start, so a single crisis year (a pandemic or a write-down) does not distort the rate. Smoothed = median of all growth paths between the years of the window (trend line on the logarithm of earnings per share): a single extreme year cannot distort the rate. The reported figure stays in the tooltip.
−7.1%
Earnings growth per share plus dividend.
Earnings per share, growth per year−13.7%
Dividend (yield on the price)6.6%
Profit margin 2021 to 2026 ⓘOperating margin then vs now, from reported annual statements. A falling margin after a boom year is the classic peak-earnings signal: the growth rate then leans on an inflated base.96% → 2,913%
2026 sits 998% above its own trend. The rate follows the median trend of the last 5 years, not that single year.
Growth Forecast
Little optimism in the price
What the price assumes ⓘThis turns our valuation around: instead of asking what the share is worth, it asks what growth the current price requires. It uses the cash the company keeps after all spending (free cash flow), the same discount rate as our models, five years of growth, then slowing evenly to 2 % a year by year ten. Compared with the analysts' sales forecasts extended to the same five years (at least three analysts, for context only, it does not enter the Fair Value): within 3 percentage points counts as "in line" (amber), below that little optimism (green), above that a lot of optimism (red).
less than -40 %
The company could shrink this much every year for the next five years and today's price would still be justified.
Compare Tribeca Global Natural Resources Ltd with another stock
Price, fair value, quality and upside side by side.
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Peer GroupⓘHow this stock ranks against its industry: the green marker is this stock, the band is the typical 25–75% peer range, and the tick is the median.Asset Management · 587 stocks
Beats the industry median on 10/13 measures
Overall it ranks above its industry peers.
Valuation
Quality Score74 · Top 25%
Fair Value upside+15.4% · Below median
Profitability
Return on equity (12 months)38.3% · Top 25%
Return on assets19.9% · Top 25%
Net margin (12 months)54.9% · Above median
Operating margin (12 months)76.0% · Above median
Growth and dividend
Revenue growth (quarter YoY)−31.7% · Bottom 25%
Dividend yield (12 months)6.6% · Above median
Valuation Multiplesvs Asset Management median · lower = cheaper
P/E (12 months)2.2× · Cheapest 25%
P/B0.74× · Cheaper than median
P/S (12 months)1.21× · Cheapest 25%
Price / free cash flow (fiscal year)11.3× · Cheaper than median
For bloggers, editors and developers: paste this into your site or blog (a “Custom HTML” block in WordPress), it shows the current fair value and links back here. Free, plain HTML, and welcome. Full data streams (CSV/JSON) at /developers.
Cite: Fair Value Calculator (2026). "Tribeca Global Natural Resources Ltd Fair Value". https://www.fairvalue-calculator.com/stock/TGF
Frequently asked questions
Is Tribeca Global Natural Resources Ltd (TGF) overvalued or undervalued?
As of Nov 9, 2026, our model estimates a fair value of A$2.62 versus a price of A$2.27, about +15% upside (undervalued).
What is the fair value of TGF?
Our model-based fair value for Tribeca Global Natural Resources Ltd is A$2.62 (as of Nov 9, 2026), built from audited fundamentals. The current price: A$2.27.
What is the quality score of TGF?
Tribeca Global Natural Resources Ltd has a Quality Score of 74/100. It measures business quality (profitability, growth, cash flow, balance-sheet strength, investment discipline, share issuance). Market factors such as price momentum and volatility do not enter the number; they are shown separately in the detail view.
What is the price target for Tribeca Global Natural Resources Ltd (TGF)?
Our model-based price target is the fair value of A$2.62 (as of Nov 9, 2026) from 2 valuation models. Cautious scenario A$1.97, optimistic scenario A$3.28. It is a calculation from audited fundamentals, not an analyst target.
What is the Tribeca Global Natural Resources Ltd stock forecast for 2026?
Our models put fair value at A$2.62, about +15% upside versus a price of A$2.27 (undervalued). Cautious scenario A$1.97, optimistic scenario A$3.28. The calculation is refreshed regularly with new filings.
Does Tribeca Global Natural Resources Ltd pay a dividend?
Tribeca Global Natural Resources Ltd currently shows a dividend yield of 6.61% relative to its recent price (as of Nov 9, 2026).
How much is the dividend of Tribeca Global Natural Resources Ltd (TGF) and when is the ex-dividend date?
Tribeca Global Natural Resources Ltd pays a dividend of A$0.15 per share a year, a dividend yield of 6.6%. The last ex-dividend date was Sep 2, 2026. The payout ratio is 14.9% of earnings. Free cash flow covers the dividend 1.34 times. Our assessment: Well covered. A low payout and the dividend is fully funded by free cash flow, a comfortable, sustainable dividend.
What growth is priced into Tribeca Global Natural Resources Ltd (TGF)?
For today's price to be fair in a discounted-cash-flow model, Tribeca Global Natural Resources Ltd would have to grow free cash flow by less than minus 40 % per year for five years (discount rate 12.8 %, then slowing evenly to 2 % perpetual growth by year ten). Over the last 5 years revenue grew -44.3 % per year. As of Nov 9, 2026.
What discount rate (WACC) does the fair value of TGF use?
Our models discount Tribeca Global Natural Resources Ltd at 12.8 %: a base by market capitalisation (micro), damped by beta 1.11, country premium for Australia. The same rate applies in all 26 models.
What is a reverse DCF?
A reverse DCF turns the usual calculation around. Instead of deriving a value from assumptions, it takes today's price as given and asks: what free-cash-flow growth would a company have to deliver for exactly this price to be fair? The result is not a forecast but the expectation already priced in. For Tribeca Global Natural Resources Ltd that is less than minus 40 % per year for five years, then slowing evenly to 2 % by year ten, using the same discount rate (12.8 %) and the same formula as our fair value.
How much growth has Tribeca Global Natural Resources Ltd (TGF) delivered so far?
Over the past 5 years revenue at Tribeca Global Natural Resources Ltd grew -44.3 % a year. The price currently implies free-cash-flow growth of less than minus 40 % per year. Comparing the two shows how much confidence is in the price: if it demands more than has been delivered, the business has to accelerate for the maths to work.
How fast is the sector of Tribeca Global Natural Resources Ltd (TGF) growing?
The median revenue growth in the sector is +9.2 % a year. That is the yardstick for the growth priced into Tribeca Global Natural Resources Ltd (less than minus 40 % per year): it shows whether the expectation is within the usual range or beyond it.
What is the free cash flow yield of Tribeca Global Natural Resources Ltd (TGF)?
The free-cash-flow yield on the price is 8.84 %: that much free cash flow Tribeca Global Natural Resources Ltd produces per unit of market value. When it exceeds the discount rate of our models (12.8 %), the business already earns more than its cost of capital demands, and the price needs little additional growth.
What is the intrinsic value of Tribeca Global Natural Resources Ltd (TGF)?
Intrinsic value and fair value mean the same thing: what the business is worth on its numbers, independent of the share price. For Tribeca Global Natural Resources Ltd it is A$2.62 per share (as of Nov 9, 2026), against a price of A$2.27. It is the blended result of 2 valuation models in 2 families (Multiples, Asset-Based).
Is Tribeca Global Natural Resources Ltd stock overvalued or undervalued in 2026?
As of Nov 9, 2026, TGF trades below its calculated fair value: price A$2.27, fair value A$2.62, a gap of about +15% (undervalued). The calculation is refreshed with each new quarterly report, so the verdict can change during the year.
Is fair value the same as the market price of TGF?
No. The price is what the market pays today (A$2.27); the fair value is what the company's own numbers justify (A$2.62). For Tribeca Global Natural Resources Ltd the two are A$0.3500 per share apart. That gap is exactly why we show both numbers side by side.
How much is Tribeca Global Natural Resources Ltd worth?
The market values Tribeca Global Natural Resources Ltd at about A$167M (market capitalisation, as of Nov 9, 2026). Per share that is A$2.27; our models calculate a fair value of A$2.62 per share.
What do the bullish and bearish scenarios say about TGF?
Our models span a range for Tribeca Global Natural Resources Ltd: cautious scenario A$1.97, base A$2.62, optimistic A$3.28 per share (as of Nov 9, 2026, price A$2.27). The range comes from different growth and margin assumptions, not from analyst opinions.
What is the P/E ratio of TGF?
Tribeca Global Natural Resources Ltd trades at a price-to-earnings ratio of 2.2 (as of Nov 9, 2026). A P/E on its own says little: it compares the price with ONE year of profit, while our fair value of A$2.62 is built from several models across several years. Other multiples: P/B 0.7, P/S 1.2, EV/EBITDA 9.7.
How solid is the balance sheet of Tribeca Global Natural Resources Ltd (TGF)?
Balance-sheet figures for Tribeca Global Natural Resources Ltd (as of Nov 9, 2026): return on equity 38.3%. They feed the Quality Score of 74/100, which measures business quality independently of the share price.
How far is TGF from its 52-week high?
Tribeca Global Natural Resources Ltd trades at A$2.27, about 25% below its 52-week high of A$3.04 and 27% above the low of A$1.79 (as of Nov 9, 2026). Distance from the high says nothing about value: that is what the fair value of A$2.62 is for.
Which stocks are comparable to Tribeca Global Natural Resources Ltd?
From the same area (Financial Services) we also value Blackstone Inc, Brookfield Asset Management Ltd, KKR & Co, Apollo Global Management, Inc, among others. Each of them has its own fair-value calculation on this site using the same models, so the comparison is like for like.
Is Tribeca Global Natural Resources Ltd stock attractive at the current price?
The data as of Nov 9, 2026: price A$2.27, calculated fair value A$2.62 (+15%), Quality Score 74/100, from 2 models. Whether that fits your horizon and risk tolerance is your call. We provide the calculation, not investment advice.
How is the fair value of TGF calculated?
We run Tribeca Global Natural Resources Ltd through 2 models from 2 families: Multiples, Asset-Based. Every model gets the same audited fundamentals; the fair value of A$2.62 builds on their evidence-weighted average, with the spread shown as a cautious and an optimistic scenario.
Is it still worth investing in stocks now?
The global stock market currently sits 13.3% above its aggregate fair value. Tribeca Global Natural Resources Ltd currently trades 13% below its own fair value, and the market average says nothing about that. An expensive market is no reason to stay out and no reason to buy everything at once: keep a broad savings plan running, buy single stocks only with money you can do without, and hold part of your money liquid while the market is high. The full picture including sectors is on is it worth investing now.
What is the share price of Tribeca Global Natural Resources Ltd (TGF)?
The closing price on Nov 9, 2026 was A$2.27. Our model-based fair value is A$2.62, about +15% upside (undervalued). We carry closing prices from our data provider, not a live tick.
What should I pay attention to with Tribeca Global Natural Resources Ltd right now?
For a financial, book-value and earnings-based methods matter more than a cash-flow DCF, which fits banks and insurers poorly. The price sits in the lower half of our model range, the side with the larger margin of safety. The data supports the verdict: every model runs on fully documented inputs.
Key figures of Tribeca Global Natural Resources Ltd
How large is the market capitalisation of Tribeca Global Natural Resources Ltd (TGF)?
The market capitalisation of Tribeca Global Natural Resources Ltd is A$167M (≈ $115M). The stock-market value of the whole company: share price times number of shares. It is what the market asks for the entire business today.
What is the P/S ratio of Tribeca Global Natural Resources Ltd (TGF)?
The price-to-sales ratio of Tribeca Global Natural Resources Ltd is 1.21 (last twelve months). Price to sales: market value relative to yearly revenue. Useful when profit is thin or distorted.
What are the earnings per share of Tribeca Global Natural Resources Ltd (TGF)?
Earnings per share at Tribeca Global Natural Resources Ltd are A$1.01 (price ÷ EPS = P/E 2.2). Earnings per share over the last twelve months: total profit spread across every single share.
What is the dividend yield of Tribeca Global Natural Resources Ltd (TGF)?
The dividend yield of Tribeca Global Natural Resources Ltd is 6.6% (payout 14.9%). Yearly dividend relative to the share price. 3% pays 3 per 100 invested. Below: how much of profit is used for it.
What is the net margin of Tribeca Global Natural Resources Ltd (TGF)?
The net margin of Tribeca Global Natural Resources Ltd is 54.9% (last twelve months). How much of every unit of revenue ends up as profit. 10% means 10 cents of profit per dollar of sales.
What is the return on equity of Tribeca Global Natural Resources Ltd (TGF)?
The return on equity (ROE) of Tribeca Global Natural Resources Ltd is 38.3% (last twelve months). Profit relative to shareholders' equity, how efficiently the company works with its owners' money.
What is the EBIT return on assets of Tribeca Global Natural Resources Ltd (TGF)?
On an EBIT basis the return on assets of Tribeca Global Natural Resources Ltd is 6.8% (avg 5y). Operating profit (EBIT) relative to everything the company owns, as a multi-year average. It describes the business model rather than one good or bad year.
What is the operating margin of Tribeca Global Natural Resources Ltd (TGF)?
The operating margin of Tribeca Global Natural Resources Ltd is 76.0% (last twelve months). Profit from the core business (before interest and taxes) relative to revenue.
How fast is revenue growing at Tribeca Global Natural Resources Ltd (TGF)?
Revenue at Tribeca Global Natural Resources Ltd is growing −31.7% versus a year earlier (3y avg −35.0%). How much revenue grew versus a year earlier (YoY). The 3-year average next to it puts the single year in context.
How fast are earnings growing at Tribeca Global Natural Resources Ltd (TGF)?
Earnings per share at Tribeca Global Natural Resources Ltd are growing −54.1% versus a year earlier. How much earnings per share grew versus a year earlier.
How much net cash does Tribeca Global Natural Resources Ltd (TGF) hold?
Tribeca Global Natural Resources Ltd holds more cash than debt, A$1.9M net (fiscal year 2026). The company holds more cash than debt, a safety cushion.
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Broad data
Nov 9, 2026