Tribeca Global Natural Resources Ltd (TGF) fair value: what the stock is really worth
As of Sep 24, 2026: fair value of Tribeca Global Natural Resources Ltd A$1.38, price A$2.74, upside -49.5%, quality 60 out of 100. Calculated from audited financials with 26 valuation models and 37 quality factors, updated daily.
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Price vs Fair Value
White line = price, green steps = our fair value per fiscal year, dashed = 300-day average. As of Sep 23, 2026.
How to read this chart
60‑month range A$1.11 – A$3.15 · the A$2.74 price screens above the A$1.38 fair value. Green steps = our fair value per fiscal year (point-in-time, no hindsight). Dashed = 300-day average. As of Sep 23, 2026.
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Tribeca Global Natural Resources Limited is an investment firm specializing in infrastructure investments. Tribeca Global Natural Resources Limited is headquartered in Sydney, New South Wales, Australia.
Stock analysis
Tribeca Global Natural Resources Ltd (TGF) currently trades at A$2.74, while our model-based Fair Value estimate is A$1.38, implying the stock looks roughly 98.2% overvalued today.
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Valuation
Bull case: the Earnings-Based group reads highest at a median of A$2.38 per share, and 1 of the 6 models we run sit above the A$2.74 price.
Bear case: the Multiples group reads lowest at A$0.8800, and 5 of the 6 models stay below the price. Evidence for this calculation is high.
Quality & growth
The Quality Score stands at 60/100 (solid quality), in the Financial Services sector.
Weak Growth: Revenue growth is weak, negative or inconsistent.
Tribeca Global Natural Resources Ltd reported revenue of A$20.2M in FY2025 versus A$77.5M in FY2021, a compound −28.5%/yr. Reported net income was A$5.0M in FY2025, compounding −44.3%/yr from FY2021.
Key figures
Market cap A$215M (≈ $152M) · P/E ratio 2.5 · P/S ratio 0.62 · EPS (TTM) A$1.09 · Dividend yield 3.7% · Net margin 24.8% · Return on equity 44.8% · Return on assets (EBIT) 6.6%.
Competitive moat
Our AI-assisted moat analysis scores the competitive advantage at 38 out of 100 (low confidence).
What moves the price
The share trades about 13% below its 52-week high and 52% above its 52-week low, currently above its 200-day average.
For context, the median of 10 Financial Services peers we cover trades at −4% fair-value upside, at −50%, TGF screens richer than that median.
Fair Value models
Bear A$1.38Fair Value A$1.38Bull A$1.38
Model ⓘEach model values the company its own way (discounted cash flow, earnings, assets, dividends). The fair value above is their evidence-weighted blend, not the output of a single model. Based on fiscal year 2025 figures (about 12 months old). Earnings retained since then (A$0.9900 per share) are deliberately not added.Bear ⓘBear = the cautious scenario: the same model computed with conservative anchors (lower growth, margins and valuation multiples). Together with Bull it frames a plausible valuation range, not a price target.BaseBull ⓘBull = the optimistic scenario: the same model computed with favourable anchors (higher growth, margins and valuation multiples). Together with Bear it frames a plausible valuation range, not a price target.Evidence ⓘEvidence = how well-backed THIS model's estimate is for this stock (0–100): how complete and reliable its input data are, and how well the model fits the company. The final Fair Value is an evidence-weighted blend, so better-evidenced models count more. Green ≥70, amber 50–69, grey below 50.
Growth Quality ⓘGrowth is valuable only when reinvestment earns attractive returns (Aswath Damodaran): sustainable growth depends on return on capital, reinvestment and efficiency. Basis: total company revenue over the periods shown on the cards (3Y/5Y/all years), not per share, so a merger can show up as a growth jump; per-share earnings growth is in the value-creation card.15/100
Revenue growth is weak, negative or inconsistent.
What shareholders gained per year (last 5 years) ⓘWhat the business itself delivers per year: earnings growth per share plus the dividend yield. This is what you get IF the market keeps valuing the stock the same way: it contains no assumption about the market changing its mind. Computed per share, so buybacks count and a merger does not pass as growth. For a company that pays no dividend it is pure earnings growth per share. Period: earnings growth per share as CAGR over the last 5 reported fiscal years (annual statements), plus the current dividend yield. The start value is the median of the three years around the start, so a single crisis year (a pandemic or a write-down) does not distort the rate.
Compare Tribeca Global Natural Resources Ltd with another stock
Price, fair value, quality and upside side by side.
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Peer GroupⓘHow this stock ranks against its industry: the green marker is this stock, the band is the typical 25–75% peer range, and the tick is the median.Asset Management · 657 stocks
Beats the industry median on 9/12 measures
Overall it ranks above its industry peers.
Valuation
Quality Score60 · Above median
Fair Value upside−49% · Bottom 25%
Profitability
Return on equity (TTM)45% · Top 25%
Return on assets31% · Top 25%
Net margin (TTM)58% · Above median
Operating margin (TTM)89% · Top 25%
Growth and dividend
Revenue growth319% · Top 25%
Dividend yield (TTM)3.7% · Below median
Valuation Multiplesvs Asset Management median · lower = cheaper
P/E (TTM)2.5× · Cheapest 25%
P/B0.89× · Pricier than median
P/S (TTM)1.02× · Cheapest 25%
EV/EBITDA4.8× · Cheaper than median
Strength profile in five axes (Snowflake)
This stockSector peers
VALUE (fair-value potential)0· sector 54
FUTURE (revenue growth)100· sector 21
PAST (return on equity)100· sector 23
HEALTH (low debt)0· sector 95
DIVIDEND (yield)73· sector 81
VALUE 0: the price sits above our fair-value range.
For bloggers, editors and developers: paste this into your site or blog (a “Custom HTML” block in WordPress), it shows the current fair value and links back here. Free, plain HTML, and welcome. Full data streams (CSV/JSON) at /developers.
Cite: Fair Value Calculator (2026). "Tribeca Global Natural Resources Ltd Fair Value". https://www.fairvalue-calculator.com/stock/TGF
Frequently asked questions
Is Tribeca Global Natural Resources Ltd (TGF) overvalued or undervalued?
As of Sep 23, 2026, our model estimates a fair value of A$1.38 versus a price of A$2.74, about −50% upside (overvalued).
What is the fair value of TGF?
Our model-based fair value for Tribeca Global Natural Resources Ltd is A$1.38 (as of Sep 23, 2026), built from audited fundamentals. The current price: A$2.74.
What is the quality score of TGF?
Tribeca Global Natural Resources Ltd has a Quality Score of 60/100. It measures business quality (profitability, growth, cash flow, balance-sheet strength, investment discipline, share issuance). Market factors such as price momentum and volatility do not enter the number; they are shown separately in the detail view.
What is the price target for Tribeca Global Natural Resources Ltd (TGF)?
Our model-based price target is the fair value of A$1.38 (as of Sep 23, 2026) from 6 valuation models. It is a calculation from audited fundamentals, not an analyst target.
What is the Tribeca Global Natural Resources Ltd stock forecast for 2026?
Our models put fair value at A$1.38, about −50% upside versus a price of A$2.74 (overvalued). The calculation is refreshed regularly with new filings.
Does Tribeca Global Natural Resources Ltd pay a dividend?
Tribeca Global Natural Resources Ltd currently shows a dividend yield of about 3.66% relative to its recent price (as of Sep 23, 2026).
What is the intrinsic value of Tribeca Global Natural Resources Ltd (TGF)?
Intrinsic value and fair value mean the same thing: what the business is worth on its numbers, independent of the share price. For Tribeca Global Natural Resources Ltd it is A$1.38 per share (as of Sep 23, 2026), against a price of A$2.74. It is the blended result of 6 valuation models (cash flow, earnings, asset, dividend).
Is Tribeca Global Natural Resources Ltd stock overvalued or undervalued in 2026?
As of Sep 23, 2026, TGF trades above its calculated fair value: price A$2.74, fair value A$1.38, a gap of about −50% (overvalued). The calculation is refreshed with each new quarterly report, so the verdict can change during the year.
Is fair value the same as the market price of TGF?
No. The price is what the market pays today (A$2.74); the fair value is what the company's own numbers justify (A$1.38). For Tribeca Global Natural Resources Ltd the two are A$1.36 per share apart. That gap is exactly why we show both numbers side by side.
How much is Tribeca Global Natural Resources Ltd worth?
The market values Tribeca Global Natural Resources Ltd at about A$215M (market capitalisation, as of Sep 23, 2026). Per share that is A$2.74; our models calculate a fair value of A$1.38 per share.
What is the P/E ratio of TGF?
Tribeca Global Natural Resources Ltd trades at a price-to-earnings ratio of 2.5 (as of Sep 23, 2026). A P/E on its own says little: it compares the price with ONE year of profit, while our fair value of A$1.38 is built from several models across several years. Other multiples: P/B 0.9, P/S 1.0, EV/EBITDA 4.8.
How solid is the balance sheet of Tribeca Global Natural Resources Ltd (TGF)?
Balance-sheet figures for Tribeca Global Natural Resources Ltd (as of Sep 23, 2026): return on equity 44.8%. They feed the Quality Score of 60/100, which measures business quality independently of the share price.
How far is TGF from its 52-week high?
Tribeca Global Natural Resources Ltd trades at A$2.74, about 13% below its 52-week high of A$3.15 and 52% above the low of A$1.80 (as of Sep 24, 2026). Distance from the high says nothing about value: that is what the fair value of A$1.38 is for.
Which stocks are comparable to Tribeca Global Natural Resources Ltd?
From the same area (Financial Services) we also value Blackstone Inc, Brookfield Corporation, KKR & Co, Apollo Global Management, Inc, among others. Each of them has its own fair-value calculation on this site using the same models, so the comparison is like for like.
Is Tribeca Global Natural Resources Ltd stock attractive at the current price?
The data as of Sep 23, 2026: price A$2.74, calculated fair value A$1.38 (−50%), Quality Score 60/100, from 6 models. Whether that fits your horizon and risk tolerance is your call. We provide the calculation, not investment advice.
How is the fair value of TGF calculated?
We run Tribeca Global Natural Resources Ltd through 6 models from four families: discounted cash flow, earnings models, asset and balance-sheet models, and dividend models. Every model gets the same audited fundamentals; the result is the weighted average of A$1.38, with the spread shown as a cautious and an optimistic scenario.
Is it still worth investing in stocks now?
The global stock market currently sits 13.0 % above its aggregate fair value. Tribeca Global Natural Resources Ltd itself currently trades above fair value. An expensive market is no reason to stay out and no reason to buy everything at once: keep a broad savings plan running, buy single stocks only with money you can do without, and hold part of your money liquid while the market is high. The full picture including sectors is on is it worth investing now.
What is the share price of Tribeca Global Natural Resources Ltd (TGF)?
The closing price on Sep 24, 2026 was A$2.74. Our model-based fair value is A$1.38, about −50% upside (overvalued). We carry closing prices from our data provider, not a live tick.
What should I pay attention to with Tribeca Global Natural Resources Ltd right now?
The price sits above even our optimistic bull case (A$1.38). The favourable scenario is already priced in. Solid but not exceptional quality (60/100) and above fair value, neither a clear bargain nor a standout compounder. For a financial, book-value and earnings-based methods matter more than a cash-flow DCF, which fits banks and insurers poorly.
Key figures of Tribeca Global Natural Resources Ltd
How large is the market capitalisation of Tribeca Global Natural Resources Ltd (TGF)?
The market capitalisation of Tribeca Global Natural Resources Ltd is A$215M (≈ $152M). The stock-market value of the whole company: share price times number of shares. It is what the market asks for the entire business today.
What is the P/S ratio of Tribeca Global Natural Resources Ltd (TGF)?
The price-to-sales ratio of Tribeca Global Natural Resources Ltd is 0.62 (P/E × margin). Price to sales: market value relative to yearly revenue. Useful when profit is thin or distorted.
What are the earnings per share of Tribeca Global Natural Resources Ltd (TGF)?
Earnings per share at Tribeca Global Natural Resources Ltd are A$1.09 (price ÷ EPS = P/E 2.5). Earnings per share over the last twelve months: total profit spread across every single share.
What is the dividend yield of Tribeca Global Natural Resources Ltd (TGF)?
The dividend yield of Tribeca Global Natural Resources Ltd is 3.7% (payout 9.2%). Yearly dividend relative to the share price. 3% pays 3 per 100 invested. Below: how much of profit is used for it.
What is the net margin of Tribeca Global Natural Resources Ltd (TGF)?
The net margin of Tribeca Global Natural Resources Ltd is 24.8% (fiscal year 2025). How much of every unit of revenue ends up as profit. 10% means 10 cents of profit per dollar of sales.
What is the return on equity of Tribeca Global Natural Resources Ltd (TGF)?
The return on equity (ROE) of Tribeca Global Natural Resources Ltd is 44.8% (last twelve months). Profit relative to shareholders' equity, how efficiently the company works with its owners' money.
What is the EBIT return on assets of Tribeca Global Natural Resources Ltd (TGF)?
On an EBIT basis the return on assets of Tribeca Global Natural Resources Ltd is 6.6% (avg 5y). Operating profit (EBIT) relative to everything the company owns, as a multi-year average. It describes the business model rather than one good or bad year.
What is the operating margin of Tribeca Global Natural Resources Ltd (TGF)?
The operating margin of Tribeca Global Natural Resources Ltd is 88.9% (last twelve months). Profit from the core business (before interest and taxes) relative to revenue.
How fast is revenue growing at Tribeca Global Natural Resources Ltd (TGF)?
Revenue at Tribeca Global Natural Resources Ltd is growing +319% versus a year earlier. How much revenue grew versus a year earlier (YoY). The 3-year average next to it puts the single year in context.
How fast are earnings growing at Tribeca Global Natural Resources Ltd (TGF)?
Earnings per share at Tribeca Global Natural Resources Ltd are growing +18.2% versus a year earlier. How much earnings per share grew versus a year earlier.
How much free cash flow does Tribeca Global Natural Resources Ltd (TGF) generate?
The free cash flow of Tribeca Global Natural Resources Ltd is −A$15.6M (fiscal year 2025). The cash truly left after running and investing in the business, this is what pays dividends and buybacks.
How much net cash does Tribeca Global Natural Resources Ltd (TGF) hold?
Tribeca Global Natural Resources Ltd holds more cash than debt, A$69.4M net (fiscal year 2025). The company holds more cash than debt, a safety cushion.
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