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The Hanover Insurance Group, Inc. (THGI34) fair value: what the stock is really worth

As of Oct 1, 2026: fair value of The Hanover Insurance Group, Inc. BRL 376, price BRL 456, upside -17.5%, quality 65 out of 100. Calculated from audited financials with 26 valuation models and 37 quality factors, updated daily.

  1. Fair value above price? No
  2. Good quality? Yes
  3. Add to watchlist

Financial Services · BR · Home US

TH Broad data Sep 24, 2026

The Hanover Insurance Group, Inc.

THGI34 · SA

Overvalued / MonitorQuality is not strong enough to offset the price risk.

!Fair value R$375.76 · Overvalued (−17.5%)
✓Quality 65/100
✓Healthy Growth (revenue 3y +5.8 %/yr)
✓Solidly profitable · 10.8% net margin (TTM)
✓Low debt · generates free cash flow
✓0.8% dividend yield · Well covered
!Mixed vs. peers (8/14)
!Moderate moat 59/100
!Weak on valuation: 8 out of 100
!Weak on dividend: 16 out of 100
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What runs behind every stock

26 valuation models 8 families, DCF to NCAV 37 quality factors margins, balance sheet, cashflow, debt 6 AI factors moat, what no ratio measures 2,000+ data points verified, per stock, median

69 individual criteria per stock, every one traceable See the method →

Price vs Fair Value

R$460.46 R$248.82 Fair Value R$375.76 Jun 2021 Oct 2026

White line = price, green steps = our fair value per fiscal year, dashed = 300-day average. As of Sep 24, 2026.

How to read this chart

60‑month range R$248.82 – R$460.46 · fair‑value band R$279.75 – R$608.81 · the R$455.56 price screens above the R$375.76 fair value. Green steps = our fair value per fiscal year (point-in-time, no hindsight). Dashed = 300-day average. As of Sep 24, 2026.

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Company profile

The Hanover Insurance Group, Inc., through its subsidiaries, provides various property and casualty insurance products and services for individuals and businesses in the United States. It operates in four segments: Core Commercial, Specialty, Personal Lines, and Other.

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The Hanover Insurance Group, Inc., through its subsidiaries, provides various property and casualty insurance products and services for individuals and businesses in the United States. It operates in four segments: Core Commercial, Specialty, Personal Lines, and Other. The company offers commercial multiple peril, commercial automobile, workers' compensation, and other core commercial coverage; and professional and executive lines, marine, and surety and other, as well as specialty property and casualty products comprising Hanover program business, excess and surplus business, Hanover specialty industrial, and specialty general liability business coverage. It also provides personal automobile; and homeowners and other personal lines, including residences and personal property, liability claims, personal umbrella, inland marine, fire, personal watercraft, personal cyber, and other miscellaneous coverages. In addition, the company offers insurance products for collector cars, motorcycles, off-road vehicles, condominiums, valuable items, business owners, international, and management and professional liability; and for the construction, cultural and educational institutions, financial intuitions, healthcare, human services, life sciences, manufacturing, professional services, real estate, retail, technology, and wholesale and distribution industries. It markets its products and services through independent agents and brokers. The company was formerly known as Allmerica Financial Corp. and changed its name to The Hanover Insurance Group, Inc. in December 2005. The Hanover Insurance Group, Inc. was founded in 1852 and is headquartered in Worcester, Massachusetts.

Stock analysis

The Hanover Insurance Group, Inc. (THGI34) currently trades at R$455.56, while our model-based Fair Value estimate is R$375.76, 17.5% below the price, so the stock looks overvalued today.

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Valuation

Bull case: the Economic Profit group reads highest at a median of R$377.58 per share, and 1 of the 6 models we run sit above the R$455.56 price.

Bear case: the Dividend Discount group reads lowest at R$132.90, and 5 of the 6 models stay below the price. Evidence for this calculation is high.

Scenario range: R$279.75 (bear) to R$608.81 (bull), the price of R$455.56 sits inside it. Bear and bull are the same models on cautious and optimistic assumptions, a range, not a price target.

Quality & growth

The Quality Score stands at 65/100 (solid quality), in the Financial Services sector.

Healthy Growth: Revenue growth appears healthy and is supported by profitability and cash-flow quality.

The Hanover Insurance Group, Inc. reported revenue of $6.6B in FY2025 versus $5.5B in FY2022, a compound +5.8%/yr. Reported net income was $663M in FY2025, compounding +78.7%/yr from FY2022. FY2022 was a trough year, so the rate overstates the trend.

Key figures

Market cap R$32.2B (≈ $6.2B) · P/E ratio 14.0 · P/S ratio 1.41 · EPS (TTM) R$32.52 · Dividend yield 0.8% · Net margin 10.1% · Return on equity 21.8% · Return on assets (EBIT) 2.8%.

Competitive moat

Our AI-assisted moat analysis scores the competitive advantage at 51 out of 100 (low confidence).

What moves the price

The share trades about 1% below its 52-week high and at its 52-week low, currently below its 200-day average.

For context, the median of 10 Financial Services peers we cover trades at −22% fair-value upside, at −18%, THGI34 screens cheaper than that median.

Fair Value models

Bear R$279.75 Fair Value R$375.76 Bull R$608.81
Model ⓘEach model values the company its own way (discounted cash flow, earnings, assets, dividends). The fair value above is their evidence-weighted blend, not the output of a single model. Based on fiscal year 2025 figures (about 9 months old). Earnings retained since then (R$21.79 per share) are deliberately not added. Bear ⓘBear = the cautious scenario: the same model computed with conservative anchors (lower growth, margins and valuation multiples). Together with Bull it frames a plausible valuation range, not a price target.BaseBull ⓘBull = the optimistic scenario: the same model computed with favourable anchors (higher growth, margins and valuation multiples). Together with Bear it frames a plausible valuation range, not a price target. If a model's bull case is above four times its base value, the table shows that limit with a > sign (like the overall Bull above): beyond it no assumption holds. Evidence ⓘEvidence = how well-backed THIS model's estimate is for this stock (0–100): how complete and reliable its input data are, and how well the model fits the company. The final Fair Value is an evidence-weighted blend, so better-evidenced models count more. Green ≥70, amber 50–69, grey below 50.
Highest evidence
Residual Income R$301.91 R$377.58 R$558.83 72
Gordon GGM R$85.60 R$170.57 R$258.30 64
DDM Multi-Stage R$85.60 R$132.90 R$180.05 64
All 6 models by family
Dividend Discount
Gordon GGM R$85.60 R$170.57 R$258.30 64
DDM Multi-Stage R$85.60 R$132.90 R$180.05 64
Multiples
P/E Multiple R$482.08 R$642.77 R$803.47 63
P/B Multiple R$279.88 R$373.17 R$466.46 55
Asset-Based
NCAV (Graham) R$133.27 R$178.59 R$266.55 54
Economic Profit
Residual Income R$301.91 R$377.58 R$558.83 72

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Quality Score breakdown

Overall quality 65/100

Of which business quality 63 · Market factors (momentum, volatility) 53

Profitability 43
Margins and returns on capital today
Quality Growth 46
Are margins and returns improving?
Cashflow 82
Earnings quality: real cash, not paper profit
Fin. Strength 57
Balance sheet, leverage, solvency risk
Investment 64
Disciplined investing over empire-building
Low Volatility 100
Calm price path (market factor)
Momentum 40
Price trend over the last 3–12 months (market factor)
52W Momentum 24
Distance to the 52-week high (market factor)
Net Issuance 90
Share count: buybacks or dilution?

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Revenue & earnings trend

Growth Quality ⓘGrowth is valuable only when reinvestment earns attractive returns (Aswath Damodaran): sustainable growth depends on return on capital, reinvestment and efficiency. Basis: total company revenue over the periods shown on the cards (3Y/5Y/all years), not per share, so a merger can show up as a growth jump; per-share earnings growth is in the value-creation card. 81/100
Revenue growth appears healthy and is supported by profitability and cash-flow quality.
Revenue growth 1 year
+5.6%
Revenue growth 3 years ⓘMeasures the company's TOTAL revenue from reported annual statements: compound average growth per year (CAGR) from the fiscal year 3, 5 or N years back to the most recent comparable fiscal year. Not per share: buybacks do not change this number, and a merger can appear as a growth jump. Per-share growth (which does include buybacks) is in the value-creation card.
+5.8%
Profit margin (trend) ⓘOperating margin then vs now, from reported annual statements. A falling margin after a boom year is the classic peak-earnings signal: the growth rate then leans on an inflated base.
4.4% (2022) → 13.2% (2025)
What shareholders gained per year ⓘWe only publish this rate when it is defensible. Reason: rate outside our plausibility band
not computed

Growth Forecast

Little optimism in the price
The price assumes less growth than the company has delivered so far and less than analysts expect.
What the price assumes ⓘThis turns our valuation around: instead of asking what the share is worth, it asks what growth the current price requires. It uses the cash the company keeps after all spending (free cash flow), the same discount rate as our models, five years of growth, then slowing evenly to 2 % a year by year ten. Compared with the analysts' sales forecasts extended to the same five years (at least three analysts, for context only, it does not enter the Fair Value): within 3 percentage points counts as "in line" (amber), below that little optimism (green), above that a lot of optimism (red).
−26.9%
Yearly growth needed for the next five years to justify today's price.
What forecasts expect ⓘAnalysts publish sales forecasts for the next two fiscal years. For the years after that, growth slows evenly to 2 % a year by year ten (2 % is the long-run rate our models use). Projected years are marked as such.
+3.5%
Yearly sales growth analysts expect, extended to five years.
After inflation (figures in USD, USA: IMF forecast 2.4% a year to 2030, 3.1% from 2016 to 2025) that is about −28.6% a year for the price and +1.1% for the forecasts.
Forecast 2026 (sales)+1.2%
Forecast 2027 (sales)+4.5%
Projected 2028 (sales)+4.2%
Projected 2029 (sales)+3.9%
Projected 2030 (sales)+3.6%

THGI34 screens overvalued: fair value 18% below the price. Compare with Chubb Limited →

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Peer GroupⓘHow this stock ranks against its industry: the green marker is this stock, the band is the typical 25–75% peer range, and the tick is the median.Insurance - Property & Casualty · 116 stocks

Beats the industry median on 8/14 measures
A mixed picture versus its industry peers.
Valuation
Quality Score 65 · Above median
Fair Value upside −18.1% · Below median
Profitability
Return on equity (TTM) 21.8% · Top 25%
Return on assets 3.8% · Above median
Net margin (TTM) 10.8% · Above median
Operating margin (TTM) 14.6% · Above median
Growth and dividend
Revenue growth 6.1% · Below median
Dividend yield (TTM) 0.8% · Bottom 25%
Balance sheet
Debt / equity 0.24× · Above median

Valuation Multiplesvs Insurance - Property & Casualty median · lower = cheaper

P/E (TTM) 14.0× · Pricier than median
P/B 1.73× · Pricier than median
P/S (TTM) 0.92× · Cheaper than median
P/FCF 5.3× · Cheapest 25%
EV/EBITDA 6.6× · Cheaper than median

Strength profile in five axes (Snowflake)

VALUEFUTUREPASTHEALTHDIVIDEND
This stock
VALUEFUTUREPASTHEALTHDIVIDEND
Sector peers
VALUE (fair-value potential)8 · sector 18
FUTURE (revenue growth)31 · sector 36
PAST (return on equity)87 · sector 58
HEALTH (low debt)88 · sector 90
DIVIDEND (yield)16 · sector 55

Context: sector, industry, market

Values & ESG

Does this company touch areas you may want to avoid? The classification is inferred from sector and industry.

None of the checked exposures detected

Similar stocks

10 more Insurance - Property & Casualty stocks, each showing price versus our Fair Value estimate.

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Chubb Limited CB $331.37 $235.99 −29%
The Progressive Corporation PGR $209.47 $160.75 −23%
The Travelers Companies, Inc TRV $356.51 $279.78 −22%
The Allstate Corporation ALL $224.41 $290.52 +29%
The People's Insurance Company 601319 ¥7.98 ¥9.02 +13%
Fairfax Financial Holdings FFH C$2,219 C$3,257 +47%
Intact Financial Corporation IFC C$250.54 C$167.88 −33%
Cincinnati Financial Corporation CINF $161.92 $143.72 −11%
W. R. Berkley Corporation WRB $67.66 $47.22 −30%
QBE Insurance Group QBE A$23.81 A$13.42 −44%

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The Hanover Insurance Group, Inc. · Fair Value
R$375.76 −18%Fair Value
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Cite: Fair Value Calculator (2026). "The Hanover Insurance Group, Inc. Fair Value". https://www.fairvalue-calculator.com/stock/THGI34

Frequently asked questions

Is The Hanover Insurance Group, Inc. (THGI34) overvalued or undervalued?
As of Sep 24, 2026, our model estimates a fair value of R$375.76 versus a price of R$455.56, about −18% upside (overvalued).
What is the fair value of THGI34?
Our model-based fair value for The Hanover Insurance Group, Inc. is R$375.76 (as of Sep 24, 2026), built from audited fundamentals. The current price: R$455.56.
What is the quality score of THGI34?
The Hanover Insurance Group, Inc. has a Quality Score of 65/100. It measures business quality (profitability, growth, cash flow, balance-sheet strength, investment discipline, share issuance). Market factors such as price momentum and volatility do not enter the number; they are shown separately in the detail view.
What is the price target for The Hanover Insurance Group, Inc. (THGI34)?
Our model-based price target is the fair value of R$375.76 (as of Sep 24, 2026) from 6 valuation models. Cautious scenario R$279.75, optimistic scenario R$608.81. It is a calculation from audited fundamentals, not an analyst target.
What is the The Hanover Insurance Group, Inc. stock forecast for 2026?
Our models put fair value at R$375.76, about −18% upside versus a price of R$455.56 (overvalued). Cautious scenario R$279.75, optimistic scenario R$608.81. The calculation is refreshed regularly with new filings.
What is the revenue of The Hanover Insurance Group, Inc. (THGI34)?
The Hanover Insurance Group, Inc. reported trailing-twelve-month revenue of about $6.7B (latest available figure, as of Sep 24, 2026).
Does The Hanover Insurance Group, Inc. pay a dividend?
The Hanover Insurance Group, Inc. currently shows a dividend yield of about 0.81% relative to its recent price (as of Sep 24, 2026).
What growth is priced into The Hanover Insurance Group, Inc. (THGI34)?
For today's price to be fair in a discounted-cash-flow model, The Hanover Insurance Group, Inc. would have to grow free cash flow by -26.9 % per year for five years (discount rate 11.2 %, then slowing evenly to 2 % perpetual growth by year ten). Over the last 3 years revenue grew +5.8 % per year. As of Sep 24, 2026.
What discount rate (WACC) does the fair value of THGI34 use?
Our models discount The Hanover Insurance Group, Inc. at 11.2 %: a base by market capitalisation (mid), damped by beta 0.29, country premium for Brazil. The same rate applies in all 26 models.
What is a reverse DCF?
A reverse DCF turns the usual calculation around. Instead of deriving a value from assumptions, it takes today's price as given and asks: what free-cash-flow growth would a company have to deliver for exactly this price to be fair? The result is not a forecast but the expectation already priced in. For The Hanover Insurance Group, Inc. that is -26.9 % per year a year over ten years, using the same discount rate (11.2 %) and the same formula as our fair value.
How much growth has The Hanover Insurance Group, Inc. (THGI34) delivered so far?
Over the past 3 years revenue at The Hanover Insurance Group, Inc. grew +5.8 % a year. The price currently implies -26.9 % per year free-cash-flow growth a year. Comparing the two shows how much confidence is in the price: if it demands more than has been delivered, the business has to accelerate for the maths to work.
How fast is the sector of The Hanover Insurance Group, Inc. (THGI34) growing?
The median revenue growth in the sector is +7.8 % a year. That is the yardstick for the growth priced into The Hanover Insurance Group, Inc. (-26.9 % per year a year): it shows whether the expectation is within the usual range or beyond it.
What is the free cash flow yield of The Hanover Insurance Group, Inc. (THGI34)?
The free-cash-flow yield on the price is 37.90 %: that much free cash flow The Hanover Insurance Group, Inc. produces per unit of market value. When it exceeds the discount rate of our models (11.2 %), the business already earns more than its cost of capital demands, and the price needs little additional growth.
What is the intrinsic value of The Hanover Insurance Group, Inc. (THGI34)?
Intrinsic value and fair value mean the same thing: what the business is worth on its numbers, independent of the share price. For The Hanover Insurance Group, Inc. it is R$375.76 per share (as of Sep 24, 2026), against a price of R$455.56. It is the blended result of 6 valuation models (cash flow, earnings, asset, dividend).
Is The Hanover Insurance Group, Inc. stock overvalued or undervalued in 2026?
As of Sep 24, 2026, THGI34 trades above its calculated fair value: price R$455.56, fair value R$375.76, a gap of about −18% (overvalued). The calculation is refreshed with each new quarterly report, so the verdict can change during the year.
Is fair value the same as the market price of THGI34?
No. The price is what the market pays today (R$455.56); the fair value is what the company's own numbers justify (R$375.76). For The Hanover Insurance Group, Inc. the two are R$79.80 per share apart. That gap is exactly why we show both numbers side by side.
How much is The Hanover Insurance Group, Inc. worth?
The market values The Hanover Insurance Group, Inc. at about R$32.2B (market capitalisation, as of Sep 24, 2026). Per share that is R$455.56; our models calculate a fair value of R$375.76 per share.
What do the bullish and bearish scenarios say about THGI34?
Our models span a range for The Hanover Insurance Group, Inc.: cautious scenario R$279.75, base R$375.76, optimistic R$608.81 per share (as of Sep 24, 2026, price R$455.56). The range comes from different growth and margin assumptions, not from analyst opinions.
What is the P/E ratio of THGI34?
The Hanover Insurance Group, Inc. trades at a price-to-earnings ratio of 14.0 (as of Sep 24, 2026). A P/E on its own says little: it compares the price with ONE year of profit, while our fair value of R$375.76 is built from several models across several years. Other multiples: P/B 1.7, P/S 0.9, EV/EBITDA 6.6.
How solid is the balance sheet of The Hanover Insurance Group, Inc. (THGI34)?
Balance-sheet figures for The Hanover Insurance Group, Inc. (as of Sep 24, 2026): return on equity 21.8%, debt of 0.24 per unit of equity. They feed the Quality Score of 65/100, which measures business quality independently of the share price.
How far is THGI34 from its 52-week high?
The Hanover Insurance Group, Inc. trades at R$455.56, about 1% below its 52-week high of R$460.46 and at the low of R$454.76 (as of Oct 1, 2026). Distance from the high says nothing about value: that is what the fair value of R$375.76 is for.
Which stocks are comparable to The Hanover Insurance Group, Inc.?
From the same area (Financial Services) we also value Chubb Limited, The Progressive Corporation, The Travelers Companies, Inc, The Allstate Corporation, among others. Each of them has its own fair-value calculation on this site using the same models, so the comparison is like for like.
Is The Hanover Insurance Group, Inc. stock attractive at the current price?
The data as of Sep 24, 2026: price R$455.56, calculated fair value R$375.76 (−18%), Quality Score 65/100, from 6 models. Whether that fits your horizon and risk tolerance is your call. We provide the calculation, not investment advice.
How is the fair value of THGI34 calculated?
We run The Hanover Insurance Group, Inc. through 6 models from four families: discounted cash flow, earnings models, asset and balance-sheet models, and dividend models. Every model gets the same audited fundamentals; the result is the weighted average of R$375.76, with the spread shown as a cautious and an optimistic scenario.
Is it still worth investing in stocks now?
The global stock market currently sits 14.5 % above its aggregate fair value. The Hanover Insurance Group, Inc. itself currently trades above fair value. An expensive market is no reason to stay out and no reason to buy everything at once: keep a broad savings plan running, buy single stocks only with money you can do without, and hold part of your money liquid while the market is high. The full picture including sectors is on is it worth investing now.
What is the share price of The Hanover Insurance Group, Inc. (THGI34)?
The closing price on Oct 1, 2026 was R$455.56. Our model-based fair value is R$375.76, about −18% upside (overvalued). We carry closing prices from our data provider, not a live tick.
What should I pay attention to with The Hanover Insurance Group, Inc. right now?
Solid but not exceptional quality (65/100) and above fair value, neither a clear bargain nor a standout compounder. A fairly wide model range (R$279.75 to R$608.81) leaves room in how you read the outcome. For a financial, book-value and earnings-based methods matter more than a cash-flow DCF, which fits banks and insurers poorly.

Key figures of The Hanover Insurance Group, Inc.

How large is the market capitalisation of The Hanover Insurance Group, Inc. (THGI34)?
The market capitalisation of The Hanover Insurance Group, Inc. is R$32.2B (≈ $6.2B). The stock-market value of the whole company: share price times number of shares. It is what the market asks for the entire business today.
What is the P/S ratio of The Hanover Insurance Group, Inc. (THGI34)?
The price-to-sales ratio of The Hanover Insurance Group, Inc. is 1.41 (P/E × margin). Price to sales: market value relative to yearly revenue. Useful when profit is thin or distorted.
What are the earnings per share of The Hanover Insurance Group, Inc. (THGI34)?
Earnings per share at The Hanover Insurance Group, Inc. are R$32.52 (price ÷ EPS = P/E 14.0). Earnings per share over the last twelve months: total profit spread across every single share.
What is the dividend yield of The Hanover Insurance Group, Inc. (THGI34)?
The dividend yield of The Hanover Insurance Group, Inc. is 0.8% (payout 11.4%). Yearly dividend relative to the share price. 3% pays 3 per 100 invested. Below: how much of profit is used for it.
What is the net margin of The Hanover Insurance Group, Inc. (THGI34)?
The net margin of The Hanover Insurance Group, Inc. is 10.1% (fiscal year 2025). How much of every unit of revenue ends up as profit. 10% means 10 cents of profit per dollar of sales.
What is the return on equity of The Hanover Insurance Group, Inc. (THGI34)?
The return on equity (ROE) of The Hanover Insurance Group, Inc. is 21.8% (last twelve months). Profit relative to shareholders' equity, how efficiently the company works with its owners' money.
What is the EBIT return on assets of The Hanover Insurance Group, Inc. (THGI34)?
On an EBIT basis the return on assets of The Hanover Insurance Group, Inc. is 2.8% (avg 4y). Operating profit (EBIT) relative to everything the company owns, as a multi-year average. It describes the business model rather than one good or bad year.
What is the operating margin of The Hanover Insurance Group, Inc. (THGI34)?
The operating margin of The Hanover Insurance Group, Inc. is 14.6% (last twelve months). Profit from the core business (before interest and taxes) relative to revenue.
How fast is revenue growing at The Hanover Insurance Group, Inc. (THGI34)?
Revenue at The Hanover Insurance Group, Inc. is growing +6.1% versus a year earlier (3y avg +5.8%). How much revenue grew versus a year earlier (YoY). The 3-year average next to it puts the single year in context.
How fast are earnings growing at The Hanover Insurance Group, Inc. (THGI34)?
Earnings per share at The Hanover Insurance Group, Inc. are growing +48.6% versus a year earlier. How much earnings per share grew versus a year earlier.
How much net debt does The Hanover Insurance Group, Inc. (THGI34) carry?
The net debt of The Hanover Insurance Group, Inc. is $95.6M (fiscal year 2025, ≈ 0.1 yrs of FCF). Debt minus cash on hand. The note shows how many years of free cash flow could in theory pay it off.
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