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Tenon Medical, Inc (TNON) fair value: what the stock is really worth

As of Oct 5, 2026: fair value of Tenon Medical, Inc $1.57, price $3.70, upside -57.6%, quality 46 out of 100. Calculated from audited financials with 26 valuation models and 37 quality factors, updated daily.

  1. Fair value above price? No
  2. Good quality? No
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Healthcare · US · ISIN US88066N4025

TM Tenon Medical, Inc logo Thin data Oct 3, 2026

Tenon Medical, Inc

TNON · US

Weakest SetupStrongly overvalued and low quality.

Quality 46/100
Expensive Growth (revenue 5y +146.0 %/yr in USD)
Mixed vs. peers (3/6)
Fair value $1.57 · Strongly overvalued (−57.6%)
Negative free cash flow
Narrow moat 23/100
Thin data
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What runs behind every stock

26 valuation models 8 families, DCF to NCAV 37 quality factors margins, balance sheet, cashflow, debt 6 AI factors moat, what no ratio measures 2,000+ data points verified, per stock, median

69 individual criteria per stock, every one traceable See the method →

Price vs Fair Value

$139,440 $2.44 Fair Value $1.57 Apr 2022 Oct 2026

White line = price, green steps = our fair value per fiscal year, dashed = 300-day average. As of Oct 3, 2026.

How to read this chart

53‑month range $2.44 – $139,440 · fair‑value band $1.04 – $1.96 · the $3.70 price screens above the $1.57 fair value. Green steps = our fair value per fiscal year (point-in-time, no hindsight). Dashed = 300-day average. As of Oct 3, 2026.

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Company profile

Tenon Medical, Inc., a medical device company, engages in the development of implant for the treatment of severe lower back pain in the United States.

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Tenon Medical, Inc., a medical device company, engages in the development of implant for the treatment of severe lower back pain in the United States. The company offers Catamaran SI-Joint Fusion System, an invasive inferior-posterior approach to the sacroiliac joint (SI Joint) using a titanium implant for treatment of the most common types of SI Joint disorders that cause lower back pain. It also provides Catamaran Fixation Device which passes through both the axial and sagittal planes of the ilium and sacrum, transfixing the SI Joint along its longitudinal axis. Tenon Medical, Inc. was incorporated in 2012 and is headquartered in Los Gatos, California.

Stock analysis

Tenon Medical, Inc (TNON) currently trades at $3.70, while our model-based Fair Value estimate is $1.57, 57.6% below the price, so the stock looks overvalued today.

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Valuation

How firm this estimate is: it rests on 1 models at a data quality of 96/100, which puts the evidence level at low.

Scenario range: $1.04 (bear) to $1.96 (bull), the price of $3.70 sits above it. Bear and bull are the same models on cautious and optimistic assumptions, a range, not a price target.

Quality & growth

The Quality Score stands at 46/100 (below-average quality), in the Healthcare sector.

Expensive Growth: The company is growing, but growth may require heavy reinvestment or weak cash conversion.

Tenon Medical, Inc reported revenue of $3.9M in FY2025 versus $160K in FY2021, a compound +122.8%/yr. Reported net income was −$12.6M in FY2025.

Key figures

Market cap $2.5M · P/S ratio 0.46 · EPS (TTM) $−42.75 · Net margin −258% · Return on equity −551% · Return on assets (EBIT) −149% · Operating margin −262% · Revenue (TTM) $5.3M.

Competitive moat

Our AI-assisted moat analysis scores the competitive advantage at 28 out of 100 (medium confidence).

What moves the price

The share trades about 92% below its 52-week high and 52% above its 52-week low.

For context, the median of 10 Healthcare peers we cover trades at 6% fair-value upside, at −58%, TNON screens richer than that median.

Fair Value models

Bear $1.04 Fair Value $1.57 Bull $1.96
Price $3.70 · Upside -57.6%
Model ⓘEach model values the company its own way (discounted cash flow, earnings, assets, dividends). The fair value above is their evidence-weighted blend, not the output of a single model. Bear ⓘBear = the cautious scenario: the same model computed with conservative anchors (lower growth, margins and valuation multiples). Together with Bull it frames a plausible valuation range, not a price target.BaseBull ⓘBull = the optimistic scenario: the same model computed with favourable anchors (higher growth, margins and valuation multiples). Together with Bear it frames a plausible valuation range, not a price target. If a model's bull case is above four times its base value, the table shows that limit with a > sign (like the overall Bull above): beyond it no assumption holds. Evidence ⓘEvidence = how well-backed THIS model's estimate is for this stock (0–100): how complete and reliable its input data are, and how well the model fits the company. The final Fair Value is an evidence-weighted blend, so better-evidenced models count more. Green ≥70, amber 50–69, grey below 50.
Highest evidence
NCAV (Graham) $3.78 $5.06 $7.56 51
All 1 models by family
Asset-Based
NCAV (Graham) $3.78 $5.06 $7.56 51

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Quality Score breakdown

Overall quality 46/100

Of which business quality 46 · Market factors (momentum, volatility) 5

Profitability 12
Margins and returns on capital today
Quality Growth 90
Are margins and returns improving?
Cashflow 8
Earnings quality: real cash, not paper profit
Fin. Strength 64
Balance sheet, leverage, solvency risk
Investment 91
Disciplined investing over empire-building
Low Volatility 17
Calm price path (market factor)
Momentum 0
Price trend over the last 3–12 months (market factor)
52W Momentum 2
Distance to the 52-week high (market factor)
Net Issuance 50
Share count: buybacks or dilution?

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Revenue & earnings trend

Growth Quality ⓘGrowth is valuable only when reinvestment earns attractive returns (Aswath Damodaran): sustainable growth depends on return on capital, reinvestment and efficiency. Basis: total company revenue over the periods shown on the cards (3Y/5Y/all years), not per share, so a merger can show up as a growth jump; per-share earnings growth is in the value-creation card. 44/100
The company is growing, but growth may require heavy reinvestment or weak cash conversion.
Revenue growth 1 year
+20.4%
Revenue growth 3 years ⓘMeasures the company's TOTAL revenue from reported annual statements: compound average growth per year (CAGR) from the fiscal year 3, 5 or N years back to the most recent comparable fiscal year. Not per share: buybacks do not change this number, and a merger can appear as a growth jump. Per-share growth (which does include buybacks) is in the value-creation card.
+78.7%
Revenue growth 5 years ⓘMeasures the company's TOTAL revenue from reported annual statements: compound average growth per year (CAGR) from the fiscal year 3, 5 or N years back to the most recent comparable fiscal year. Not per share: buybacks do not change this number, and a merger can appear as a growth jump. Per-share growth (which does include buybacks) is in the value-creation card.
+146.0%
Start year 2020 (pandemic)
Revenue growth 6 years ⓘMeasures the company's TOTAL revenue from reported annual statements: compound average growth per year (CAGR) from the fiscal year 3, 5 or N years back to the most recent comparable fiscal year. Not per share: buybacks do not change this number, and a merger can appear as a growth jump. Per-share growth (which does include buybacks) is in the value-creation card.
+104.7%
Profit margin (trend) ⓘOperating margin then vs now, from reported annual statements. A falling margin after a boom year is the classic peak-earnings signal: the growth rate then leans on an inflated base.
−1,223.8% (2020) → −324.3% (2025)
What shareholders gained per year ⓘWe only publish this rate when it is defensible. Reason: fiscal 2025 is a loss year, no rate is defined from a loss
not computed

TNON screens overvalued: fair value 58% below the price. Compare with Abbott Laboratories, →

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Peer GroupⓘHow this stock ranks against its industry: the green marker is this stock, the band is the typical 25–75% peer range, and the tick is the median.Medical Devices · 335 stocks

Beats the industry median on 3/6 measures
A mixed picture versus its industry peers.
Valuation
Quality Score 46 · Below median
Fair Value upside −57.6% · Below median
Profitability
Return on assets −72.0% · Bottom 25%
Growth and dividend
Revenue growth 126.8% · Top 25%

Valuation Multiplesvs Medical Devices median · lower = cheaper

P/B 0.49× · Cheapest 25%
P/S (TTM) 0.47× · Cheapest 25%

Strength profile in five axes (Snowflake)

VALUEFUTUREPASTHEALTHDIVIDEND
This stock
VALUEFUTUREPASTHEALTHDIVIDEND
Sector peers
VALUE (fair-value potential)0 · sector 5
FUTURE (revenue growth)100 · sector 31
PAST (return on equity)0 · sector 16
HEALTH (low debt)0 · sector 98
DIVIDEND (yield)0 · sector 39

VALUE 0: the price sits above our fair-value range.

Context: sector, industry, market

Values & ESG

Does this company touch areas you may want to avoid? The classification is inferred from sector and industry.

None of the checked exposures detected

Similar stocks

10 more Medical Devices stocks, each showing price versus our Fair Value estimate.

Stock Price Fair Value vs Fair Value
Abbott Laboratories, ABT $98.83 $74.79 −24%
Medtronic plc MDT $86.38 $65.61 −24%
Stryker Corporation SYK $275.43 $302.97 +10%
Boston Scientific Corporation BSX $43.65 $48.02 +10%
Edwards Lifesciences Corporation EW $85.19 $81.94 −4%
Siemens Healthineers AG SHL €37.86 €35.19 −7%
DexCom, Inc DXCM $85.36 $93.90 +10%
GE HealthCare Technologies Inc GEHC $66.63 $70.37 +6%
Shenzhen Mindray Bio-Medical Electronics Co 300760 ¥153.86 ¥169.25 +10%
Koninklijke Philips N.V PHIA €21.87 €15.23 −30%

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Tenon Medical, Inc · Fair Value
$1.57 −58%Fair Value
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Cite: Fair Value Calculator (2026). "Tenon Medical, Inc Fair Value". https://www.fairvalue-calculator.com/stock/TNON

Frequently asked questions

Is Tenon Medical, Inc (TNON) overvalued or undervalued?
As of Oct 3, 2026, our model estimates a fair value of $1.57 versus a price of $3.70, about −58% upside (overvalued).
What is the fair value of TNON?
Our model-based fair value for Tenon Medical, Inc is $1.57 (as of Oct 3, 2026), built from audited fundamentals. The current price: $3.70.
What is the quality score of TNON?
Tenon Medical, Inc has a Quality Score of 46/100. It measures business quality (profitability, growth, cash flow, balance-sheet strength, investment discipline, share issuance). Market factors such as price momentum and volatility do not enter the number; they are shown separately in the detail view.
What is the price target for Tenon Medical, Inc (TNON)?
Our model-based price target is the fair value of $1.57 (as of Oct 3, 2026) from 1 valuation models. Cautious scenario $1.04, optimistic scenario $1.96. It is a calculation from audited fundamentals, not an analyst target.
What is the Tenon Medical, Inc stock forecast for 2026?
Our models put fair value at $1.57, about −58% upside versus a price of $3.70 (overvalued). Cautious scenario $1.04, optimistic scenario $1.96. The calculation is refreshed regularly with new filings.
What is the revenue of Tenon Medical, Inc (TNON)?
Tenon Medical, Inc reported trailing-twelve-month revenue of about $5.3M (latest available figure, as of Oct 3, 2026).
What is the intrinsic value of Tenon Medical, Inc (TNON)?
Intrinsic value and fair value mean the same thing: what the business is worth on its numbers, independent of the share price. For Tenon Medical, Inc it is $1.57 per share (as of Oct 3, 2026), against a price of $3.70. It is the blended result of 1 valuation models (cash flow, earnings, asset, dividend).
Is Tenon Medical, Inc stock overvalued or undervalued in 2026?
As of Oct 3, 2026, TNON trades above its calculated fair value: price $3.70, fair value $1.57, a gap of about −58% (overvalued). The calculation is refreshed with each new quarterly report, so the verdict can change during the year.
Is fair value the same as the market price of TNON?
No. The price is what the market pays today ($3.70); the fair value is what the company's own numbers justify ($1.57). For Tenon Medical, Inc the two are $2.13 per share apart. That gap is exactly why we show both numbers side by side.
How much is Tenon Medical, Inc worth?
The market values Tenon Medical, Inc at about $2.5M (market capitalisation, as of Oct 3, 2026). Per share that is $3.70; our models calculate a fair value of $1.57 per share.
What do the bullish and bearish scenarios say about TNON?
Our models span a range for Tenon Medical, Inc: cautious scenario $1.04, base $1.57, optimistic $1.96 per share (as of Oct 3, 2026, price $3.70). The range comes from different growth and margin assumptions, not from analyst opinions.
How far is TNON from its 52-week high?
Tenon Medical, Inc trades at $3.70, about 92% below its 52-week high of $45.15 and 52% above the low of $2.44 (as of Oct 5, 2026). Distance from the high says nothing about value: that is what the fair value of $1.57 is for.
Which stocks are comparable to Tenon Medical, Inc?
From the same area (Healthcare) we also value Abbott Laboratories,, Medtronic plc, Stryker Corporation, Boston Scientific Corporation, among others. Each of them has its own fair-value calculation on this site using the same models, so the comparison is like for like.
Is Tenon Medical, Inc stock attractive at the current price?
The data as of Oct 3, 2026: price $3.70, calculated fair value $1.57 (−58%), Quality Score 46/100, from 1 models. Whether that fits your horizon and risk tolerance is your call. We provide the calculation, not investment advice.
How is the fair value of TNON calculated?
We run Tenon Medical, Inc through 1 models from four families: discounted cash flow, earnings models, asset and balance-sheet models, and dividend models. Every model gets the same audited fundamentals; the result is the weighted average of $1.57, with the spread shown as a cautious and an optimistic scenario.
Is it still worth investing in stocks now?
The global stock market currently sits 15.0 % above its aggregate fair value. Tenon Medical, Inc itself currently trades above fair value. An expensive market is no reason to stay out and no reason to buy everything at once: keep a broad savings plan running, buy single stocks only with money you can do without, and hold part of your money liquid while the market is high. The full picture including sectors is on is it worth investing now.
What is the share price of Tenon Medical, Inc (TNON)?
The closing price on Oct 5, 2026 was $3.70. Our model-based fair value is $1.57, about −58% upside (overvalued). We carry closing prices from our data provider, not a live tick.
What should I pay attention to with Tenon Medical, Inc right now?
The price sits above even our optimistic bull case ($1.96). The favourable scenario is already priced in. The large gap to fair value rests on thin data (low evidence): fewer applicable models and a shorter history. Read it with extra caution. Solid but not exceptional quality (46/100) and above fair value, neither a clear bargain nor a standout compounder. A fairly wide model range ($1.04 to $1.96) leaves room in how you read the outcome.

Key figures of Tenon Medical, Inc

How large is the market capitalisation of Tenon Medical, Inc (TNON)?
The market capitalisation of Tenon Medical, Inc is $2.5M. The stock-market value of the whole company: share price times number of shares. It is what the market asks for the entire business today.
What is the P/S ratio of Tenon Medical, Inc (TNON)?
The price-to-sales ratio of Tenon Medical, Inc is 0.46 (last twelve months). Price to sales: market value relative to yearly revenue. Useful when profit is thin or distorted.
What are the earnings per share of Tenon Medical, Inc (TNON)?
Earnings per share at Tenon Medical, Inc are $−42.75. Earnings per share over the last twelve months: total profit spread across every single share.
What is the net margin of Tenon Medical, Inc (TNON)?
The net margin of Tenon Medical, Inc is −258% (last twelve months). How much of every unit of revenue ends up as profit. 10% means 10 cents of profit per dollar of sales.
What is the return on equity of Tenon Medical, Inc (TNON)?
The return on equity (ROE) of Tenon Medical, Inc is −551% (last twelve months). Profit relative to shareholders' equity, how efficiently the company works with its owners' money.
What is the EBIT return on assets of Tenon Medical, Inc (TNON)?
On an EBIT basis the return on assets of Tenon Medical, Inc is −149% (avg 5y). Operating profit (EBIT) relative to everything the company owns, as a multi-year average. It describes the business model rather than one good or bad year.
What is the operating margin of Tenon Medical, Inc (TNON)?
The operating margin of Tenon Medical, Inc is −262% (last twelve months). Profit from the core business (before interest and taxes) relative to revenue.
How fast is revenue growing at Tenon Medical, Inc (TNON)?
Revenue at Tenon Medical, Inc is growing +127% versus a year earlier (3y avg +78.7%). How much revenue grew versus a year earlier (YoY). The 3-year average next to it puts the single year in context.
How much free cash flow does Tenon Medical, Inc (TNON) generate?
The free cash flow of Tenon Medical, Inc is −$11.0M (fiscal year 2025). The cash truly left after running and investing in the business, this is what pays dividends and buybacks.
How much net cash does Tenon Medical, Inc (TNON) hold?
Tenon Medical, Inc holds more cash than debt, $3.6M net (fiscal year 2025). The company holds more cash than debt, a safety cushion.
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