Trinity Capital Inc (TRIN) Fair Value & Analysis

Financial Services · US · Market cap $1.5B

Below-average quality, and screening another 20% overvalued on our models.

What matters now

• Weak quality (33/100) and above fair value at the same time, the margin of safety is missing on both counts.
• For a financial, book-value and earnings-based methods matter more than a cash-flow DCF, which fits banks and insurers poorly.

Price vs Fair Value (5 years)

White line = price, green steps = our fair value per fiscal year, dashed = 300-day average. As of Jul 27, 2026.

How to read this chart

60‑month range $5.94 – $18.16 · fair‑value band $10.86 – $18.11 · the $18.05 price screens above the $14.48 fair value. Green steps = our fair value per fiscal year (point-in-time, no hindsight). Dashed = 300-day average. As of Jul 27, 2026.

Full chart & analysis →

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Analysis

Trinity Capital Inc (TRIN) currently trades at $18.05, while our model-based Fair Value estimate is $14.48, implying the stock looks roughly 19.8% overvalued today. The Quality Score stands at 33/100 (below-average quality), in the Financial Services sector. Bear case: priced above our estimate, the market already discounts strong expectations. Bull case: above-average quality can justify a premium, the entry price still matters most (evidence: high).

Over the trailing twelve months, Trinity Capital Inc generated revenue of $300M at a net margin of 46.1%. Revenue grew 32.9% year over year. It earns a return on equity of 13.8%. Net debt stands at $1.3B. Fundamentals as of Jul 27, 2026

Our scenario range runs from $10.86 (bear case) to $18.11 (bull case); at $18.05, the current price sits within that range. Bear and bull are the same models run on conservative and optimistic assumptions (margins, growth, valuation multiples), so a plausible valuation range, not a price target. The share trades near its 52-week high and 50% above its 52-week low, currently above its 200-day average. For context, the median of 10 Financial Services peers we cover trades at -12% fair-value upside, at -20%, TRIN screens richer than that median.

Fair Value models

Each model estimates fair value its own way; the Fair Value above is the evidence-weighted blend. Evidence (0–100) measures how completely this model’s inputs are available: well-fed models carry more weight in the blend. The spread across models is intentional, each one stresses a different value driver; dividend models, for instance, come out structurally low when payout is small.

Widest divergence: Earnings-Based ($52.80) versus Asset-Based ($8.15). Highest evidence: Residual Income (76).

Key figures & financial health

Quality Score breakdown

About the company

Trinity Capital Inc. is a business development company specializing in term loans, equipment financing, and private equity-related investments. The firm provides tech lending, equipment financing, life sciences, warehouse lending, and sponsor finance sources.

Full company description

Trinity Capital Inc. is a business development company specializing in term loans, equipment financing, and private equity-related investments. The firm provides tech lending, equipment financing, life sciences, warehouse lending, and sponsor finance sources. The firm is industry agnostic and invests in growth-stage companies across industries, including aerospace, software, Agricultural Equipment, Alternative Protein, Clean Technology, Energy, Food and Beverage / CPG, Information Technology, Life Sciences, Oil and Gas, Robotics, Semiconductors, Transportation, and consumer and retail. They provide investors with stable and consistent returns through access to the private credit market. Trinity Capital Inc. was founded in 2008 and is based in Phoenix, Arizona, with additional offices in Solana Beach, California and San Diego, California.

Company description, as reported by the company or data provider.

Revenue & earnings trend

FY2021 – FY2025 · reported fiscal years

Trinity Capital Inc reported revenue of $232M in FY2025 versus $155M in FY2021, a compound +10.6%/yr. Reported net income was $136M in FY2025, compounding +0.6%/yr from FY2021.

TRIN screens 20% overvalued. Compare with Fondul Proprietatea SA →

Earlier news

External third-party headlines (Yahoo Finance, Reuters and others), not an editorial selection.

• Trinity Capital declares $0.17 dividend Seeking Alpha · Jun 18, 2026
• Trinity Capital Inc. Q1 2026 Earnings Call Summary Yahoo Finance · May 7, 2026

Peer Group

Asset Management · 973 stocks

How this stock ranks against its industry: the green marker is this stock, the band is the typical 25–75% peer range, and the tick is the median.

Valuation Multiples vs Asset Management median · lower = cheaper

Snowflake

Five quick dimensions, each 0 to 100: VALUE (fair-value potential), FUTURE (revenue growth), PAST (return on equity), HEALTH (low debt), DIVIDEND (yield). Green = this stock, grey = typical sector peer.

Insider activity: 86/100

Values & ESG

Does this company touch areas you may want to avoid? The classification is inferred from sector and industry.

ESG scores are not available for this stock yet. Values and ESG data are contextual and can differ between providers.

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Frequently asked questions

How we calculate Fair Value

Each company is valued through a stack of independent intrinsic-value models (DCF variants, residual-income, multiples and more), blended into one family-balanced consensus and weighted by how much trustworthy data backs it. A separate quality layer scores the fundamentals. Every input is real reported data, nothing guessed.