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Trinity Capital Inc (TRIN) fair value: what the stock is really worth

As of Sep 23, 2026: fair value of Trinity Capital Inc $16.67, price $17.55, upside -5.0%, quality 33 out of 100. Calculated from audited financials with 26 valuation models and 37 quality factors, updated daily.

  1. Fair value above price? No
  2. Good quality? No
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Financial Services · US · ISIN US8964423086

TC Trinity Capital Inc logo Some data Sep 23, 2026

Trinity Capital Inc

TRIN · US

Low PriorityFair Value upside is limited and quality is weak.

·Fair value $16.67 · Fairly valued (−5%)
!Quality 33/100
!Mixed Growth (revenue 5y +57.7 %/yr)
✓Highly profitable · 45.2% net margin (TTM)
!Low debt · negative free cash flow
·11.62% dividend yield
!Mixed vs. peers (7/14)
!Moderate moat 62/100
✓Insider activity 86/100
!Evidence only medium, so the estimate is less certain
!Weak on valuation: 27 out of 100
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What runs behind every stock

26 valuation models 8 families, DCF to NCAV 37 quality factors margins, balance sheet, cashflow, debt 6 AI factors moat, what no ratio measures 2,000+ data points verified, per stock, median

69 individual criteria per stock, every one traceable See the method →

Price vs Fair Value

$18.55 $5.77 Fair Value $16.67 Jun 2021 Sep 2026

White line = price, green steps = our fair value per fiscal year, dashed = 300-day average. As of Sep 23, 2026.

How to read this chart

60‑month range $5.77 – $18.55 · fair‑value band $12.50 – $20.83 · the $17.55 price screens above the $16.67 fair value. Green steps = our fair value per fiscal year (point-in-time, no hindsight). Dashed = 300-day average. As of Sep 23, 2026.

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Company profile

Trinity Capital Inc. is a business development company specializing in term loans, equipment financing, and private equity-related investments. The firm provides tech lending, equipment financing, life sciences, warehouse lending, and sponsor finance sources.

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Trinity Capital Inc. is a business development company specializing in term loans, equipment financing, and private equity-related investments. The firm provides tech lending, equipment financing, life sciences, warehouse lending, and sponsor finance sources. The firm is industry agnostic and invests in growth-stage companies across industries, including aerospace, software, Agricultural Equipment, Alternative Protein, Clean Technology, Energy, Food and Beverage / CPG, Information Technology, Life Sciences, Oil and Gas, Robotics, Semiconductors, Transportation, and consumer and retail. They provide investors with stable and consistent returns through access to the private credit market. Trinity Capital Inc. was founded in 2008 and is based in Phoenix, Arizona, with additional offices in Solana Beach, California and San Diego, California.

Stock analysis

Trinity Capital Inc (TRIN) currently trades at $17.55, while our model-based Fair Value estimate is $16.67, implying the stock looks roughly 5.3% fairly valued today.

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Valuation

Bull case: the Earnings-Based group reads highest at a median of $52.80 per share, and 4 of the 7 models we run sit above the $17.55 price.

Bear case: the Asset-Based group reads lowest at $8.15, and 3 of the 7 models stay below the price. Evidence for this calculation is medium.

Scenario range: $12.50 (bear) to $20.83 (bull), the price of $17.55 sits inside it. Bear and bull are the same models on cautious and optimistic assumptions, a range, not a price target.

Quality & growth

The Quality Score stands at 33/100 (below-average quality), in the Financial Services sector.

Mixed Growth: Revenue is growing, but margins or cash flow do not fully confirm the trend.

Trinity Capital Inc reported revenue of $232M in FY2025 versus $155M in FY2021, a compound +10.6%/yr. Reported net income was $136M in FY2025, compounding +0.6%/yr from FY2021.

Key figures

Market cap $1.6B · P/E ratio 10.1 · P/S ratio 5.89 · EPS (TTM) $1.74 · Dividend yield 11.6% · Net margin 58.4% · Return on equity 12.9% · Return on assets (EBIT) 7.4%.

Competitive moat

Our AI-assisted moat analysis scores the competitive advantage at 38 out of 100 (medium confidence).

What moves the price

The share trades about 5% below its 52-week high and 40% above its 52-week low, currently above its 200-day average.

For context, the median of 10 Financial Services peers we cover trades at −4% fair-value upside, at −5%, TRIN screens richer than that median.

Fair Value models

Bear $12.50 Fair Value $16.67 Bull $20.83
Model ⓘEach model values the company its own way (discounted cash flow, earnings, assets, dividends). The fair value above is their evidence-weighted blend, not the output of a single model. Bear ⓘBear = the cautious scenario: the same model computed with conservative anchors (lower growth, margins and valuation multiples). Together with Bull it frames a plausible valuation range, not a price target.BaseBull ⓘBull = the optimistic scenario: the same model computed with favourable anchors (higher growth, margins and valuation multiples). Together with Bear it frames a plausible valuation range, not a price target. Evidence ⓘEvidence = how well-backed THIS model's estimate is for this stock (0–100): how complete and reliable its input data are, and how well the model fits the company. The final Fair Value is an evidence-weighted blend, so better-evidenced models count more. Green ≥70, amber 50–69, grey below 50.
Highest evidence
Residual Income $10.71 $12.12 $20.66 72
Owner Earnings $16.98 $40.01 $82.75 68
P/E Multiple $14.71 $19.61 $24.51 63
All 7 models by family
DCF Models
Owner Earnings $16.98 $40.01 $82.75 68
Earnings-Based
Graham-Dodd $10.26 $71.54 $100.40 61
Lynch FV $36.96 $52.80 $68.64 59
Multiples
P/E Multiple $14.71 $19.61 $24.51 63
P/B Multiple $12.78 $17.04 $21.30 55
Asset-Based
NCAV (Graham) $6.09 $8.15 $12.17 54
Economic Profit
Residual Income $10.71 $12.12 $20.66 72

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Quality Score breakdown

Overall quality 33/100

Of which business quality 29 · Market factors (momentum, volatility) 74

Profitability 42
Margins and returns on capital today
Quality Growth 56
Are margins and returns improving?
Cashflow 0
Earnings quality: real cash, not paper profit
Fin. Strength 42
Balance sheet, leverage, solvency risk
Investment 33
Disciplined investing over empire-building
Low Volatility 86
Calm price path (market factor)
Momentum 67
Price trend over the last 3–12 months (market factor)
52W Momentum 73
Distance to the 52-week high (market factor)
Net Issuance 0
Share count: buybacks or dilution?

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Revenue & earnings trend

Growth Quality ⓘGrowth is valuable only when reinvestment earns attractive returns (Aswath Damodaran): sustainable growth depends on return on capital, reinvestment and efficiency. Basis: total company revenue over the periods shown on the cards (3Y/5Y/all years), not per share, so a merger can show up as a growth jump; per-share earnings growth is in the value-creation card. 54/100
Revenue is growing, but margins or cash flow do not fully confirm the trend.
Revenue growth 1 year
−2.2%
Revenue growth 5 years ⓘMeasures the company's TOTAL revenue from reported annual statements: compound average growth per year (CAGR) from the fiscal year 3, 5 or N years back to the most recent comparable fiscal year. Not per share: buybacks do not change this number, and a merger can appear as a growth jump. Per-share growth (which does include buybacks) is in the value-creation card.
+57.7%
Start year 2020 (pandemic)
What shareholders gained per year (last 5 years) ⓘWhat the business itself delivers per year: earnings growth per share plus the dividend yield. This is what you get IF the market keeps valuing the stock the same way: it contains no assumption about the market changing its mind. Computed per share, so buybacks count and a merger does not pass as growth. For a company that pays no dividend it is pure earnings growth per share. Period: earnings growth per share as CAGR over the last 5 reported fiscal years (annual statements), plus the current dividend yield. The start value is the median of the three years around the start, so a single crisis year (a pandemic or a write-down) does not distort the rate.
−5.0%
Earnings growth per share plus dividend.
Earnings per share, growth per year−16.6%
Dividend (yield on the price)11.6%
Profit margin 2020 to 2025 ⓘOperating margin then vs now, from reported annual statements. A falling margin after a boom year is the classic peak-earnings signal: the growth rate then leans on an inflated base.−26% → 93%

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Peer GroupⓘHow this stock ranks against its industry: the green marker is this stock, the band is the typical 25–75% peer range, and the tick is the median.Asset Management · 659 stocks

Beats the industry median on 7/14 measures
A mixed picture versus its industry peers.
Valuation
Quality Score 34 · Bottom 25%
Fair Value upside −5% · Below median
Profitability
Return on equity (TTM) 13% · Above median
Return on assets 6% · Above median
Net margin (TTM) 45% · Above median
Operating margin (TTM) 79% · Above median
Growth and dividend
Revenue growth 19% · Above median
Dividend yield (TTM) 11.6% · Top 25%
Balance sheet
Debt / equity 0.39× · Above median

Valuation Multiplesvs Asset Management median · lower = cheaper

P/E (TTM) 10.1× · Cheaper than median
P/B 1.45× · Pricier than median
P/S (TTM) 5.07× · Pricier than median
EV/EBITDA 36.9× · Priciest 25%
PEG 5.14× · Priciest 25%

Strength profile in five axes (Snowflake)

VALUEFUTUREPASTHEALTHDIVIDEND
This stock
VALUEFUTUREPASTHEALTHDIVIDEND
Sector peers
VALUE (fair-value potential)27 · sector 55
FUTURE (revenue growth)97 · sector 20
PAST (return on equity)52 · sector 22
HEALTH (low debt)81 · sector 95
DIVIDEND (yield)100 · sector 80

Context: sector, industry, market

Values & ESG

Does this company touch areas you may want to avoid? The classification is inferred from sector and industry.

None of the checked exposures detected

Similar stocks

10 more Asset Management stocks, each showing price versus our Fair Value estimate.

Stock Price Fair Value vs Fair Value
Blackstone Inc BX $124.01 $52.88 −57%
Brookfield Corporation BN $37.85 $13.75 −64%
KKR & Co KKR $98.44 $19.97 −80%
Apollo Global Management, Inc APO $124.15 $229.64 +85%
State Street Corporation STT $180.25 $138.33 −23%
Ameriprise Financial, Inc AMP $512.37 $579.51 +13%
Ares Management Corporation ARES $124.72 $119.25 −4%
Northern Trust Corporation NTRS $173.40 $122.02 −30%
Raymond James Financial, Inc RJF $159.39 $312.27 +96%
T. Rowe Price Group TROW $104.17 $208.34 +100%

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Trinity Capital Inc · Fair Value
$16.67 −5%Fair Value
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Cite: Fair Value Calculator (2026). "Trinity Capital Inc Fair Value". https://www.fairvalue-calculator.com/stock/TRIN

Frequently asked questions

Is Trinity Capital Inc (TRIN) overvalued or undervalued?
As of Sep 23, 2026, our model estimates a fair value of $16.67 versus a price of $17.55, about −5% upside (fairly valued).
What is the fair value of TRIN?
Our model-based fair value for Trinity Capital Inc is $16.67 (as of Sep 23, 2026), built from audited fundamentals. The current price: $17.55.
What is the quality score of TRIN?
Trinity Capital Inc has a Quality Score of 33/100. It measures business quality (profitability, growth, cash flow, balance-sheet strength, investment discipline, share issuance). Market factors such as price momentum and volatility do not enter the number; they are shown separately in the detail view.
What is the price target for Trinity Capital Inc (TRIN)?
Our model-based price target is the fair value of $16.67 (as of Sep 23, 2026) from 7 valuation models. Cautious scenario $12.50, optimistic scenario $20.83. It is a calculation from audited fundamentals, not an analyst target.
What is the Trinity Capital Inc stock forecast for 2026?
Our models put fair value at $16.67, about −5% upside versus a price of $17.55 (fairly valued). Cautious scenario $12.50, optimistic scenario $20.83. The calculation is refreshed regularly with new filings.
What is the revenue of Trinity Capital Inc (TRIN)?
Trinity Capital Inc reported trailing-twelve-month revenue of about $313M (latest available figure, as of Sep 23, 2026).
Does Trinity Capital Inc pay a dividend?
Trinity Capital Inc currently shows a dividend yield of about 11.62% relative to its recent price (as of Sep 23, 2026).
What is the intrinsic value of Trinity Capital Inc (TRIN)?
Intrinsic value and fair value mean the same thing: what the business is worth on its numbers, independent of the share price. For Trinity Capital Inc it is $16.67 per share (as of Sep 23, 2026), against a price of $17.55. It is the blended result of 7 valuation models (cash flow, earnings, asset, dividend).
Is Trinity Capital Inc stock overvalued or undervalued in 2026?
As of Sep 23, 2026, TRIN trades above its calculated fair value: price $17.55, fair value $16.67, a gap of about −5% (fairly valued). The calculation is refreshed with each new quarterly report, so the verdict can change during the year.
Is fair value the same as the market price of TRIN?
No. The price is what the market pays today ($17.55); the fair value is what the company's own numbers justify ($16.67). For Trinity Capital Inc the two are $0.8810 per share apart. That gap is exactly why we show both numbers side by side.
How much is Trinity Capital Inc worth?
The market values Trinity Capital Inc at about $1.6B (market capitalisation, as of Sep 23, 2026). Per share that is $17.55; our models calculate a fair value of $16.67 per share.
What do the bullish and bearish scenarios say about TRIN?
Our models span a range for Trinity Capital Inc: cautious scenario $12.50, base $16.67, optimistic $20.83 per share (as of Sep 23, 2026, price $17.55). The range comes from different growth and margin assumptions, not from analyst opinions.
What is the P/E ratio of TRIN?
Trinity Capital Inc trades at a price-to-earnings ratio of 10.1 (as of Sep 23, 2026). A P/E on its own says little: it compares the price with ONE year of profit, while our fair value of $16.67 is built from several models across several years. Other multiples: PEG 5.1, P/B 1.5, P/S 5.1, EV/EBITDA 36.9.
What is the PEG ratio of TRIN?
The PEG ratio of Trinity Capital Inc is 5.14 (P/E divided by earnings growth, as of Sep 23, 2026). That is above 1, so the growth is already paid for in the price.
How solid is the balance sheet of Trinity Capital Inc (TRIN)?
Balance-sheet figures for Trinity Capital Inc (as of Sep 23, 2026): return on equity 12.9%, debt of 0.39 per unit of equity. They feed the Quality Score of 33/100, which measures business quality independently of the share price.
How far is TRIN from its 52-week high?
Trinity Capital Inc trades at $17.55, about 5% below its 52-week high of $18.55 and 40% above the low of $12.58 (as of Sep 23, 2026). Distance from the high says nothing about value: that is what the fair value of $16.67 is for.
Which stocks are comparable to Trinity Capital Inc?
From the same area (Financial Services) we also value Blackstone Inc, Brookfield Corporation, KKR & Co, Apollo Global Management, Inc, among others. Each of them has its own fair-value calculation on this site using the same models, so the comparison is like for like.
Is Trinity Capital Inc stock attractive at the current price?
The data as of Sep 23, 2026: price $17.55, calculated fair value $16.67 (−5%), Quality Score 33/100, from 7 models. Whether that fits your horizon and risk tolerance is your call. We provide the calculation, not investment advice.
How is the fair value of TRIN calculated?
We run Trinity Capital Inc through 7 models from four families: discounted cash flow, earnings models, asset and balance-sheet models, and dividend models. Every model gets the same audited fundamentals; the result is the weighted average of $16.67, with the spread shown as a cautious and an optimistic scenario.
Is it still worth investing in stocks now?
The global stock market currently sits 14.1 % above its aggregate fair value. Trinity Capital Inc itself currently trades above fair value. An expensive market is no reason to stay out and no reason to buy everything at once: keep a broad savings plan running, buy single stocks only with money you can do without, and hold part of your money liquid while the market is high. The full picture including sectors is on is it worth investing now.
What is the share price of Trinity Capital Inc (TRIN)?
The closing price on Sep 23, 2026 was $17.55. Our model-based fair value is $16.67, about −5% upside (fairly valued). We carry closing prices from our data provider, not a live tick.
What should I pay attention to with Trinity Capital Inc right now?
The price sits close to our fair value, market and models broadly agree here, little valuation tension. For a financial, book-value and earnings-based methods matter more than a cash-flow DCF, which fits banks and insurers poorly.

Key figures of Trinity Capital Inc

How large is the market capitalisation of Trinity Capital Inc (TRIN)?
The market capitalisation of Trinity Capital Inc is $1.6B. The stock-market value of the whole company: share price times number of shares. It is what the market asks for the entire business today.
What is the P/S ratio of Trinity Capital Inc (TRIN)?
The price-to-sales ratio of Trinity Capital Inc is 5.89 (P/E × margin). Price to sales: market value relative to yearly revenue. Useful when profit is thin or distorted.
What are the earnings per share of Trinity Capital Inc (TRIN)?
Earnings per share at Trinity Capital Inc are $1.74 (price ÷ EPS = P/E 10.1). Earnings per share over the last twelve months: total profit spread across every single share.
What is the dividend yield of Trinity Capital Inc (TRIN)?
The dividend yield of Trinity Capital Inc is 11.6% (payout 117%). Yearly dividend relative to the share price. 3% pays 3 per 100 invested. Below: how much of profit is used for it.
What is the net margin of Trinity Capital Inc (TRIN)?
The net margin of Trinity Capital Inc is 58.4% (fiscal year 2025). How much of every unit of revenue ends up as profit. 10% means 10 cents of profit per dollar of sales.
What is the return on equity of Trinity Capital Inc (TRIN)?
The return on equity (ROE) of Trinity Capital Inc is 12.9% (last twelve months). Profit relative to shareholders' equity, how efficiently the company works with its owners' money.
What is the EBIT return on assets of Trinity Capital Inc (TRIN)?
On an EBIT basis the return on assets of Trinity Capital Inc is 7.4% (avg 5y). Operating profit (EBIT) relative to everything the company owns, as a multi-year average. It describes the business model rather than one good or bad year.
What is the operating margin of Trinity Capital Inc (TRIN)?
The operating margin of Trinity Capital Inc is 79.1% (last twelve months). Profit from the core business (before interest and taxes) relative to revenue.
How fast is revenue growing at Trinity Capital Inc (TRIN)?
Revenue at Trinity Capital Inc is growing +19.3% versus a year earlier (3y avg +74.7%). How much revenue grew versus a year earlier (YoY). The 3-year average next to it puts the single year in context.
How fast are earnings growing at Trinity Capital Inc (TRIN)?
Earnings per share at Trinity Capital Inc are growing −22.0% versus a year earlier. How much earnings per share grew versus a year earlier.
How much free cash flow does Trinity Capital Inc (TRIN) generate?
The free cash flow of Trinity Capital Inc is −$535M (fiscal year 2025). The cash truly left after running and investing in the business, this is what pays dividends and buybacks.
How much net debt does Trinity Capital Inc (TRIN) carry?
The net debt of Trinity Capital Inc is $1.3B (fiscal year 2025). Debt minus cash on hand. The note shows how many years of free cash flow could in theory pay it off.
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