Trupanion Inc (TRUP) fair value: what the stock is really worth
As of Sep 23, 2026: fair value of Trupanion Inc $5.91, price $22.88, upside -74.2%, quality 58 out of 100. Calculated from audited financials with 26 valuation models and 37 quality factors, updated daily.
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Price vs Fair Value
White line = price, green steps = our fair value per fiscal year, dashed = 300-day average. As of Sep 23, 2026.
How to read this chart
60‑month range $19.68 – $155.41 · fair‑value band $4.54 – $7.35 · the $22.88 price screens above the $5.91 fair value. Green steps = our fair value per fiscal year (point-in-time, no hindsight). 1 fiscal year is left out: there the valuation rested on only a fraction of the usual models. Dashed = 300-day average. As of Sep 23, 2026.
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Trupanion, Inc., together with its subsidiaries, provides medical insurance for cats and dogs on subscription basis in the United States, Canada, Continental Europe, and Australia. The company operates in two segments, Subscription Business and Other Business. It serves pet owners and veterinarians.
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Trupanion, Inc., together with its subsidiaries, provides medical insurance for cats and dogs on subscription basis in the United States, Canada, Continental Europe, and Australia. The company operates in two segments, Subscription Business and Other Business. It serves pet owners and veterinarians. The company was formerly known as Vetinsurance International, Inc. changed its name to Trupanion, Inc. in 2013. The company was founded in 2000 and is headquartered in Seattle, Washington.
Stock analysis
Trupanion Inc (TRUP) currently trades at $22.88, while our model-based Fair Value estimate is $5.91, implying the stock looks roughly 287.1% overvalued today.
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Valuation
Bull case: the Economic Profit group reads highest at a median of $6.27 per share, and 0 of the 4 models we run sit above the $22.88 price.
Bear case: the Multiples group reads lowest at $5.79, and 4 of the 4 models stay below the price. Evidence for this calculation is high.
Scenario range: $4.54 (bear) to $7.35 (bull), the price of $22.88 sits above it. Bear and bull are the same models on cautious and optimistic assumptions, a range, not a price target.
Quality & growth
The Quality Score stands at 58/100 (solid quality), in the Financial Services sector.
Healthy Growth: Revenue growth appears healthy and is supported by profitability and cash-flow quality.
Trupanion Inc reported revenue of $1.4B in FY2025 versus $699M in FY2021, a compound +19.8%/yr. Reported net income was $19.4M in FY2025.
Key figures
Market cap $997M · P/E ratio 38.8 · P/S ratio 0.52 · EPS (TTM) $0.5900 · Net margin 1.4% · Return on equity 7.1% · Return on assets (EBIT) −3.3% · Operating margin 1.2%.
Competitive moat
Our AI-assisted moat analysis scores the competitive advantage at 38 out of 100 (medium confidence).
What moves the price
The share trades about 48% below its 52-week high and 7% above its 52-week low, currently below its 200-day average.
For context, the median of 10 Financial Services peers we cover trades at −23% fair-value upside, at −74%, TRUP screens richer than that median.
Fair Value models
Bear $4.54Fair Value $5.91Bull $7.35
Model ⓘEach model values the company its own way (discounted cash flow, earnings, assets, dividends). The fair value above is their evidence-weighted blend, not the output of a single model. Based on fiscal year 2025 figures (about 9 months old). Earnings retained since then ($0.4316 per share) are deliberately not added.Bear ⓘBear = the cautious scenario: the same model computed with conservative anchors (lower growth, margins and valuation multiples). Together with Bull it frames a plausible valuation range, not a price target.BaseBull ⓘBull = the optimistic scenario: the same model computed with favourable anchors (higher growth, margins and valuation multiples). Together with Bear it frames a plausible valuation range, not a price target.Evidence ⓘEvidence = how well-backed THIS model's estimate is for this stock (0–100): how complete and reliable its input data are, and how well the model fits the company. The final Fair Value is an evidence-weighted blend, so better-evidenced models count more. Green ≥70, amber 50–69, grey below 50.
Growth Quality ⓘGrowth is valuable only when reinvestment earns attractive returns (Aswath Damodaran): sustainable growth depends on return on capital, reinvestment and efficiency. Basis: total company revenue over the periods shown on the cards (3Y/5Y/all years), not per share, so a merger can show up as a growth jump; per-share earnings growth is in the value-creation card.85/100
Revenue growth appears healthy and is supported by profitability and cash-flow quality.
Revenue growth 1 year
+11.9%
Revenue growth 3 years ⓘMeasures the company's TOTAL revenue from reported annual statements: compound average growth per year (CAGR) from the fiscal year 3, 5 or N years back to the most recent comparable fiscal year. Not per share: buybacks do not change this number, and a merger can appear as a growth jump. Per-share growth (which does include buybacks) is in the value-creation card.
+16.7%
Revenue growth 5 years ⓘMeasures the company's TOTAL revenue from reported annual statements: compound average growth per year (CAGR) from the fiscal year 3, 5 or N years back to the most recent comparable fiscal year. Not per share: buybacks do not change this number, and a merger can appear as a growth jump. Per-share growth (which does include buybacks) is in the value-creation card.
+23.4%
Start year 2020 (pandemic). Over 10 years: +25.6% a year
Revenue growth 14 years ⓘMeasures the company's TOTAL revenue from reported annual statements: compound average growth per year (CAGR) from the fiscal year 3, 5 or N years back to the most recent comparable fiscal year. Not per share: buybacks do not change this number, and a merger can appear as a growth jump. Per-share growth (which does include buybacks) is in the value-creation card.
+29.9%
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Profit margin (trend) ⓘOperating margin then vs now, from reported annual statements. A falling margin after a boom year is the classic peak-earnings signal: the growth rate then leans on an inflated base.
−1.0% (2020) → 1.5% (2025)
What shareholders gained per year ⓘWe only publish this rate when it is defensible. Reason: no profitable base year
not computed
Growth Forecast
Little optimism in the price
The price assumes less growth than the company has delivered so far and less than analysts expect.
What the price assumes ⓘThis turns our valuation around: instead of asking what the share is worth, it asks what growth the current price requires. It uses the cash the company keeps after all spending (free cash flow), the same discount rate as our models, five years of growth, then slowing evenly to 2 % a year by year ten. Compared with the analysts' sales forecasts extended to the same five years (at least three analysts, for context only, it does not enter the Fair Value): within 3 percentage points counts as "in line" (amber), below that little optimism (green), above that a lot of optimism (red).
+2.0%
Yearly growth needed for the next five years to justify today's price.
What forecasts expect ⓘAnalysts publish sales forecasts for the next two fiscal years. For the years after that, growth slows evenly to 2 % a year by year ten (2 % is the long-run rate our models use). Projected years are marked as such.
+7.8%
Yearly sales growth analysts expect, extended to five years.
After inflation (USA: IMF forecast 2.4% a year to 2030, 3.1% from 2016 to 2025) that is about −0.4% a year for the price and +5.3% for the forecasts.
Price, fair value, quality and upside side by side.
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Peer GroupⓘHow this stock ranks against its industry: the green marker is this stock, the band is the typical 25–75% peer range, and the tick is the median.Insurance - Property & Casualty · 119 stocks
For bloggers, editors and developers: paste this into your site or blog (a “Custom HTML” block in WordPress), it shows the current fair value and links back here. Free, plain HTML, and welcome. Full data streams (CSV/JSON) at /developers.
Cite: Fair Value Calculator (2026). "Trupanion Inc Fair Value". https://www.fairvalue-calculator.com/stock/TRUP
Frequently asked questions
Is Trupanion Inc (TRUP) overvalued or undervalued?
As of Sep 23, 2026, our model estimates a fair value of $5.91 versus a price of $22.88, about −74% upside (overvalued).
What is the fair value of TRUP?
Our model-based fair value for Trupanion Inc is $5.91 (as of Sep 23, 2026), built from audited fundamentals. The current price: $22.88.
What is the quality score of TRUP?
Trupanion Inc has a Quality Score of 58/100. It measures business quality (profitability, growth, cash flow, balance-sheet strength, investment discipline, share issuance). Market factors such as price momentum and volatility do not enter the number; they are shown separately in the detail view.
What is the price target for Trupanion Inc (TRUP)?
Our model-based price target is the fair value of $5.91 (as of Sep 23, 2026) from 4 valuation models. Cautious scenario $4.54, optimistic scenario $7.35. It is a calculation from audited fundamentals, not an analyst target.
What is the Trupanion Inc stock forecast for 2026?
Our models put fair value at $5.91, about −74% upside versus a price of $22.88 (overvalued). Cautious scenario $4.54, optimistic scenario $7.35. The calculation is refreshed regularly with new filings.
What is the revenue of Trupanion Inc (TRUP)?
Trupanion Inc reported trailing-twelve-month revenue of about $1.5B (latest available figure, as of Sep 23, 2026).
What growth is priced into Trupanion Inc (TRUP)?
For today's price to be fair in a discounted-cash-flow model, Trupanion Inc would have to grow free cash flow by +2.0 % per year for five years (discount rate 12.4 %, then slowing evenly to 2 % perpetual growth by year ten). Over the last 5 years revenue grew +23.5 % per year. As of Sep 23, 2026.
What discount rate (WACC) does the fair value of TRUP use?
Our models discount Trupanion Inc at 12.4 %: a base by market capitalisation (small), damped by beta 1.43, country premium for USA. The same rate applies in all 26 models.
What is a reverse DCF?
A reverse DCF turns the usual calculation around. Instead of deriving a value from assumptions, it takes today's price as given and asks: what free-cash-flow growth would a company have to deliver for exactly this price to be fair? The result is not a forecast but the expectation already priced in. For Trupanion Inc that is +2.0 % per year a year over ten years, using the same discount rate (12.4 %) and the same formula as our fair value.
How much growth has Trupanion Inc (TRUP) delivered so far?
Over the past 5 years revenue at Trupanion Inc grew +23.5 % a year. The price currently implies +2.0 % per year free-cash-flow growth a year. Comparing the two shows how much confidence is in the price: if it demands more than has been delivered, the business has to accelerate for the maths to work.
How fast is the sector of Trupanion Inc (TRUP) growing?
The median revenue growth in the sector is +8.4 % a year. That is the yardstick for the growth priced into Trupanion Inc (+2.0 % per year a year): it shows whether the expectation is within the usual range or beyond it.
What is the free cash flow yield of Trupanion Inc (TRUP)?
The free-cash-flow yield on the price is 7.56 %: that much free cash flow Trupanion Inc produces per unit of market value. When it exceeds the discount rate of our models (12.4 %), the business already earns more than its cost of capital demands, and the price needs little additional growth.
What is the intrinsic value of Trupanion Inc (TRUP)?
Intrinsic value and fair value mean the same thing: what the business is worth on its numbers, independent of the share price. For Trupanion Inc it is $5.91 per share (as of Sep 23, 2026), against a price of $22.88. It is the blended result of 4 valuation models (cash flow, earnings, asset, dividend).
Is Trupanion Inc stock overvalued or undervalued in 2026?
As of Sep 23, 2026, TRUP trades above its calculated fair value: price $22.88, fair value $5.91, a gap of about −74% (overvalued). The calculation is refreshed with each new quarterly report, so the verdict can change during the year.
Is fair value the same as the market price of TRUP?
No. The price is what the market pays today ($22.88); the fair value is what the company's own numbers justify ($5.91). For Trupanion Inc the two are $16.97 per share apart. That gap is exactly why we show both numbers side by side.
How much is Trupanion Inc worth?
The market values Trupanion Inc at about $997M (market capitalisation, as of Sep 23, 2026). Per share that is $22.88; our models calculate a fair value of $5.91 per share.
What do the bullish and bearish scenarios say about TRUP?
Our models span a range for Trupanion Inc: cautious scenario $4.54, base $5.91, optimistic $7.35 per share (as of Sep 23, 2026, price $22.88). The range comes from different growth and margin assumptions, not from analyst opinions.
What is the P/E ratio of TRUP?
Trupanion Inc trades at a price-to-earnings ratio of 38.8 (as of Sep 23, 2026). A P/E on its own says little: it compares the price with ONE year of profit, while our fair value of $5.91 is built from several models across several years. Other multiples: P/B 2.6, P/S 0.7, EV/EBITDA 26.0.
How solid is the balance sheet of Trupanion Inc (TRUP)?
Balance-sheet figures for Trupanion Inc (as of Sep 23, 2026): return on equity 7.1%, debt of 0.27 per unit of equity. They feed the Quality Score of 58/100, which measures business quality independently of the share price.
How far is TRUP from its 52-week high?
Trupanion Inc trades at $22.88, about 48% below its 52-week high of $44.18 and 7% above the low of $21.46 (as of Sep 23, 2026). Distance from the high says nothing about value: that is what the fair value of $5.91 is for.
Which stocks are comparable to Trupanion Inc?
From the same area (Financial Services) we also value The Progressive Corporation, Chubb Limited, The Travelers Companies, Inc, The Allstate Corporation, among others. Each of them has its own fair-value calculation on this site using the same models, so the comparison is like for like.
Is Trupanion Inc stock attractive at the current price?
The data as of Sep 23, 2026: price $22.88, calculated fair value $5.91 (−74%), Quality Score 58/100, from 4 models. Whether that fits your horizon and risk tolerance is your call. We provide the calculation, not investment advice.
How is the fair value of TRUP calculated?
We run Trupanion Inc through 4 models from four families: discounted cash flow, earnings models, asset and balance-sheet models, and dividend models. Every model gets the same audited fundamentals; the result is the weighted average of $5.91, with the spread shown as a cautious and an optimistic scenario.
Is it still worth investing in stocks now?
The global stock market currently sits 14.1 % above its aggregate fair value. Trupanion Inc itself currently trades above fair value. An expensive market is no reason to stay out and no reason to buy everything at once: keep a broad savings plan running, buy single stocks only with money you can do without, and hold part of your money liquid while the market is high. The full picture including sectors is on is it worth investing now.
What is the share price of Trupanion Inc (TRUP)?
The closing price on Sep 23, 2026 was $22.88. Our model-based fair value is $5.91, about −74% upside (overvalued). We carry closing prices from our data provider, not a live tick.
What should I pay attention to with Trupanion Inc right now?
The price sits above even our optimistic bull case ($7.35). The favourable scenario is already priced in. Solid but not exceptional quality (58/100) and above fair value, neither a clear bargain nor a standout compounder. For a financial, book-value and earnings-based methods matter more than a cash-flow DCF, which fits banks and insurers poorly.
Key figures of Trupanion Inc
How large is the market capitalisation of Trupanion Inc (TRUP)?
The market capitalisation of Trupanion Inc is $997M. The stock-market value of the whole company: share price times number of shares. It is what the market asks for the entire business today.
What is the P/S ratio of Trupanion Inc (TRUP)?
The price-to-sales ratio of Trupanion Inc is 0.52 (P/E × margin). Price to sales: market value relative to yearly revenue. Useful when profit is thin or distorted.
What are the earnings per share of Trupanion Inc (TRUP)?
Earnings per share at Trupanion Inc are $0.5900 (price ÷ EPS = P/E 38.8). Earnings per share over the last twelve months: total profit spread across every single share.
What is the net margin of Trupanion Inc (TRUP)?
The net margin of Trupanion Inc is 1.4% (fiscal year 2025). How much of every unit of revenue ends up as profit. 10% means 10 cents of profit per dollar of sales.
What is the return on equity of Trupanion Inc (TRUP)?
The return on equity (ROE) of Trupanion Inc is 7.1% (last twelve months). Profit relative to shareholders' equity, how efficiently the company works with its owners' money.
What is the EBIT return on assets of Trupanion Inc (TRUP)?
On an EBIT basis the return on assets of Trupanion Inc is −3.3% (avg 5y). Operating profit (EBIT) relative to everything the company owns, as a multi-year average. It describes the business model rather than one good or bad year.
What is the operating margin of Trupanion Inc (TRUP)?
The operating margin of Trupanion Inc is 1.2% (last twelve months). Profit from the core business (before interest and taxes) relative to revenue.
How fast is revenue growing at Trupanion Inc (TRUP)?
Revenue at Trupanion Inc is growing +12.3% versus a year earlier (3y avg +16.7%). How much revenue grew versus a year earlier (YoY). The 3-year average next to it puts the single year in context.
How fast are earnings growing at Trupanion Inc (TRUP)?
Earnings per share at Trupanion Inc are growing +235% versus a year earlier. How much earnings per share grew versus a year earlier.
How much net cash does Trupanion Inc (TRUP) hold?
Trupanion Inc holds more cash than debt, $26.2M net (fiscal year 2025). The company holds more cash than debt, a safety cushion.
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Broad data
Sep 23, 2026