Thai Union Group PCL (TUFBY) fair value: what the stock is really worth
As of Oct 1, 2026: fair value of Thai Union Group PCL $6.26, price $7.15, upside -12.5%, quality 47 out of 100. Calculated from audited financials with 26 valuation models and 37 quality factors, updated daily.
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Price vs Fair Value
White line = price, green steps = our fair value per fiscal year, dashed = 300-day average. As of Sep 24, 2026.
How to read this chart
60‑month range $3.66 – $12.51 · fair‑value band $4.89 – $7.12 · the $7.15 price screens above the $6.26 fair value. Dashed = 300-day average. As of Sep 24, 2026.
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Thai Union Group Public Company Limited, together with its subsidiaries, manufactures and sells frozen, chilled, and canned seafood in Thailand and internationally. The company operates through four segments: Ambient Seafood; Frozen and Chilled Seafood and Related Businesses; Pet food; and Value-Added and Other Businesses.
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Thai Union Group Public Company Limited, together with its subsidiaries, manufactures and sells frozen, chilled, and canned seafood in Thailand and internationally. The company operates through four segments: Ambient Seafood; Frozen and Chilled Seafood and Related Businesses; Pet food; and Value-Added and Other Businesses. It provides ambient seafood products, including tuna, sardines, mackerel, herring, and salmon for retail and wholesale customers; frozen and chilled seafood products, such as shrimp, lobster, and crab that are sold directly to restaurants, hotels, caterers, and retail customers; ready-to-cook or ready-to-serve products, and bakery treats; marine ingredients for use in consumer goods, such as infant formula, cosmetics, dietary supplements, and clinical nutrition; and pet care products comprising wet-based food and treats. The company offers its products under the Chicken of the Sea, Genova, John West, Petit Navire, Parmentier, King Oscar, Mareblu, Rügen Fisch, Sealect, Fisho, QFresh, MONORI, Bellotta, Marvo, ChangeTer, Calico Bay, Paramount, and Zeavita brand names. It also manufactures and distributes animal feeds, frozen food, aquatic animals, ingredient products, canned tuna, seafood, and smoked salmon products, as well as distributes shrimp feeds. In addition, the company offers packaging, printing, training and management, e-commerce, consultancy, and property rental services. Further, it is involved in the tuna oil refinery, shrimp farming, and shrimp breeding and hatchery businesses; import and distribution of pet food and pet related products; import of seafood; and operation of seafood restaurant outlets. The company was formerly known as Thai Union Frozen Products Public Company Limited and changed its name to Thai Union Group Public Company Limited in September 2015. The company was founded in 1977 and is headquartered in Mueang Samut Sakhon, Thailand.
Stock analysis
Thai Union Group PCL ADR (TUFBY) currently trades at $7.15, while our model-based Fair Value estimate is $6.26, 12.5% below the price, so the stock looks overvalued today.
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Valuation
Bull case: the Multiples group reads highest at a median of $11.62 per share, and 7 of the 15 models we run sit above the $7.15 price.
Bear case: the Earnings-Based group reads lowest at $1.80, and 8 of the 15 models stay below the price. Evidence for this calculation is medium.
Scenario range: $4.89 (bear) to $7.12 (bull), the price of $7.15 sits above it. Bear and bull are the same models on cautious and optimistic assumptions, a range, not a price target.
Quality & growth
The Quality Score stands at 47/100 (below-average quality), in the Consumer Defensive sector.
Weak Growth: Revenue is shrinking: the last year, the last three and the last five years are all negative.
Thai Union Group PCL ADR reported revenue of 127B THB in FY2025 versus 141B THB in FY2021, a compound −2.5%/yr. Reported net income was 4.4B THB in FY2025, compounding −13.8%/yr from FY2021.
Key figures
Market cap $1.4B · P/E ratio 9.8 · P/S ratio 0.34 · EPS (TTM) $0.7300 · Dividend yield 9.8% · Net margin 3.5% · Return on equity 10.6% · Return on assets (EBIT) 4.6%.
Competitive moat
Our AI-assisted moat analysis scores the competitive advantage at 38 out of 100 (medium confidence).
What moves the price
The share trades about 20% below its 52-week high and 20% above its 52-week low, currently below its 200-day average.
For context, the median of 10 Consumer Defensive peers we cover trades at 9% fair-value upside, at −12%, TUFBY screens richer than that median.
Fair Value models
Bear $4.89Fair Value $6.26Bull $7.12
Model ⓘEach model values the company its own way (discounted cash flow, earnings, assets, dividends). The fair value above is their evidence-weighted blend, not the output of a single model. Based on fiscal year 2025 figures (about 9 months old). Earnings retained since then ($0.0227 per share) are deliberately not added.Bear ⓘBear = the cautious scenario: the same model computed with conservative anchors (lower growth, margins and valuation multiples). Together with Bull it frames a plausible valuation range, not a price target.BaseBull ⓘBull = the optimistic scenario: the same model computed with favourable anchors (higher growth, margins and valuation multiples). Together with Bear it frames a plausible valuation range, not a price target. If a model's bull case is above four times its base value, the table shows that limit with a > sign (like the overall Bull above): beyond it no assumption holds.Evidence ⓘEvidence = how well-backed THIS model's estimate is for this stock (0–100): how complete and reliable its input data are, and how well the model fits the company. The final Fair Value is an evidence-weighted blend, so better-evidenced models count more. Green ≥70, amber 50–69, grey below 50.
Growth Quality ⓘGrowth is valuable only when reinvestment earns attractive returns (Aswath Damodaran): sustainable growth depends on return on capital, reinvestment and efficiency. Basis: total company revenue over the periods shown on the cards (3Y/5Y/all years), not per share, so a merger can show up as a growth jump; per-share earnings growth is in the value-creation card.17/100
Revenue is shrinking: the last year, the last three and the last five years are all negative.
Revenue growth 1 year
−8.1%
Revenue growth 3 years ⓘMeasures the company's TOTAL revenue from reported annual statements: compound average growth per year (CAGR) from the fiscal year 3, 5 or N years back to the most recent comparable fiscal year. Not per share: buybacks do not change this number, and a merger can appear as a growth jump. Per-share growth (which does include buybacks) is in the value-creation card.
−6.5%
Revenue growth 5 years ⓘMeasures the company's TOTAL revenue from reported annual statements: compound average growth per year (CAGR) from the fiscal year 3, 5 or N years back to the most recent comparable fiscal year. Not per share: buybacks do not change this number, and a merger can appear as a growth jump. Per-share growth (which does include buybacks) is in the value-creation card.
−0.8%
Start year 2020 (pandemic). Over 10 years: +0.2% a year
Revenue growth 22 years ⓘMeasures the company's TOTAL revenue from reported annual statements: compound average growth per year (CAGR) from the fiscal year 3, 5 or N years back to the most recent comparable fiscal year. Not per share: buybacks do not change this number, and a merger can appear as a growth jump. Per-share growth (which does include buybacks) is in the value-creation card.
+5.3%
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What shareholders gained per year (last 5 years), in THB ⓘWhat the business itself delivers per year: earnings growth per share plus the dividend yield. This is what you get IF the market keeps valuing the stock the same way: it contains no assumption about the market changing its mind. Computed per share, so buybacks count and a merger does not pass as growth. For a company that pays no dividend it is pure earnings growth per share. Period: earnings growth per share as CAGR over the last 5 reported fiscal years (annual statements), plus the current dividend yield. The start value is the median of the three years around the start, so a single crisis year (a pandemic or a write-down) does not distort the rate. Measured in THB: this currency has depreciated against the euro and dollar over the long run, so part of the nominal rate is currency erosion that never reaches a EUR/USD investor.
+6.4%
Earnings growth per share plus dividend.
Earnings per share, growth per year−3.4%
Dividend (yield on the price)9.8%
Pace: 5 vs 10 years ⓘTwo data points, not a trend model: earnings growth per share over the last 5 fiscal years against the last 10. Labelled "steady" when both rates are within 3 percentage points of each other, otherwise picking up or flattening. Shown only when ten years of history exist.−3.4% vs 0.1%, slowing
Profit margin 2020 to 2025 ⓘOperating margin then vs now, from reported annual statements. A falling margin after a boom year is the classic peak-earnings signal: the growth rate then leans on an inflated base.7% → 5%
Compare Thai Union Group PCL ADR with another stock
Price, fair value, quality and upside side by side.
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Peer GroupⓘHow this stock ranks against its industry: the green marker is this stock, the band is the typical 25–75% peer range, and the tick is the median.Packaged Foods · 635 stocks
Beats the industry median on 6/13 measures
A mixed picture versus its industry peers.
Valuation
Quality Score47 · Below median
Fair Value upside−20.5% · Below median
Profitability
Return on equity (TTM)10.6% · Above median
Return on assets2.5% · Below median
Net margin (TTM)3.5% · Below median
Operating margin (TTM)3.6% · Below median
Growth and dividend
Revenue growth7.6% · Above median
Dividend yield (TTM)9.8% · Top 25%
Balance sheet
Debt / equity1.04× · Highest 25%
Valuation Multiplesvs Packaged Foods median · lower = cheaper
For bloggers, editors and developers: paste this into your site or blog (a “Custom HTML” block in WordPress), it shows the current fair value and links back here. Free, plain HTML, and welcome. Full data streams (CSV/JSON) at /developers.
Cite: Fair Value Calculator (2026). "Thai Union Group PCL ADR Fair Value". https://www.fairvalue-calculator.com/stock/TUFBY
Frequently asked questions
Is Thai Union Group PCL (TUFBY) overvalued or undervalued?
As of Sep 24, 2026, our model estimates a fair value of $6.26 versus a price of $7.15, about −12% upside (overvalued).
What is the fair value of TUFBY?
Our model-based fair value for Thai Union Group PCL ADR is $6.26 (as of Sep 24, 2026), built from audited fundamentals. The current price: $7.15.
What is the quality score of TUFBY?
Thai Union Group PCL ADR has a Quality Score of 47/100. It measures business quality (profitability, growth, cash flow, balance-sheet strength, investment discipline, share issuance). Market factors such as price momentum and volatility do not enter the number; they are shown separately in the detail view.
What is the price target for Thai Union Group PCL (TUFBY)?
Our model-based price target is the fair value of $6.26 (as of Sep 24, 2026) from 15 valuation models. Cautious scenario $4.89, optimistic scenario $7.12. It is a calculation from audited fundamentals, not an analyst target.
What is the Thai Union Group PCL ADR stock forecast for 2026?
Our models put fair value at $6.26, about −12% upside versus a price of $7.15 (overvalued). Cautious scenario $4.89, optimistic scenario $7.12. The calculation is refreshed regularly with new filings.
What is the revenue of Thai Union Group PCL (TUFBY)?
Thai Union Group PCL ADR reported trailing-twelve-month revenue of about 135B THB (latest available figure, as of Sep 24, 2026).
Does Thai Union Group PCL ADR pay a dividend?
Thai Union Group PCL ADR currently shows a dividend yield of about 9.79% relative to its recent price (as of Sep 24, 2026).
What is the intrinsic value of Thai Union Group PCL (TUFBY)?
Intrinsic value and fair value mean the same thing: what the business is worth on its numbers, independent of the share price. For Thai Union Group PCL ADR it is $6.26 per share (as of Sep 24, 2026), against a price of $7.15. It is the blended result of 15 valuation models (cash flow, earnings, asset, dividend).
Is Thai Union Group PCL ADR stock overvalued or undervalued in 2026?
As of Sep 24, 2026, TUFBY trades above its calculated fair value: price $7.15, fair value $6.26, a gap of about −12% (overvalued). The calculation is refreshed with each new quarterly report, so the verdict can change during the year.
Is fair value the same as the market price of TUFBY?
No. The price is what the market pays today ($7.15); the fair value is what the company's own numbers justify ($6.26). For Thai Union Group PCL ADR the two are $0.8900 per share apart. That gap is exactly why we show both numbers side by side.
How much is Thai Union Group PCL ADR worth?
The market values Thai Union Group PCL ADR at about $1.4B (market capitalisation, as of Sep 24, 2026). Per share that is $7.15; our models calculate a fair value of $6.26 per share.
What do the bullish and bearish scenarios say about TUFBY?
Our models span a range for Thai Union Group PCL ADR: cautious scenario $4.89, base $6.26, optimistic $7.12 per share (as of Sep 24, 2026, price $7.15). The range comes from different growth and margin assumptions, not from analyst opinions.
What is the P/E ratio of TUFBY?
Thai Union Group PCL ADR trades at a price-to-earnings ratio of 9.8 (as of Sep 24, 2026). A P/E on its own says little: it compares the price with ONE year of profit, while our fair value of $6.26 is built from several models across several years. Other multiples: P/B 1.1, P/S 0.4, EV/EBITDA 8.7.
How solid is the balance sheet of Thai Union Group PCL (TUFBY)?
Balance-sheet figures for Thai Union Group PCL ADR (as of Sep 24, 2026): return on equity 10.6%, debt of 1.04 per unit of equity. They feed the Quality Score of 47/100, which measures business quality independently of the share price.
How far is TUFBY from its 52-week high?
Thai Union Group PCL ADR trades at $7.15, about 20% below its 52-week high of $8.95 and 20% above the low of $5.98 (as of Oct 1, 2026). Distance from the high says nothing about value: that is what the fair value of $6.26 is for.
Which stocks are comparable to Thai Union Group PCL ADR?
From the same area (Consumer Defensive) we also value Nestlé S.A, Danone S.A, Foshan Haitian Flavouring and Food Company, The Kraft Heinz Company, among others. Each of them has its own fair-value calculation on this site using the same models, so the comparison is like for like.
Is Thai Union Group PCL ADR stock attractive at the current price?
The data as of Sep 24, 2026: price $7.15, calculated fair value $6.26 (−12%), Quality Score 47/100, from 15 models. Whether that fits your horizon and risk tolerance is your call. We provide the calculation, not investment advice.
How is the fair value of TUFBY calculated?
We run Thai Union Group PCL ADR through 15 models from four families: discounted cash flow, earnings models, asset and balance-sheet models, and dividend models. Every model gets the same audited fundamentals; the result is the weighted average of $6.26, with the spread shown as a cautious and an optimistic scenario.
Is it still worth investing in stocks now?
The global stock market currently sits 14.5 % above its aggregate fair value. Thai Union Group PCL ADR itself currently trades above fair value. An expensive market is no reason to stay out and no reason to buy everything at once: keep a broad savings plan running, buy single stocks only with money you can do without, and hold part of your money liquid while the market is high. The full picture including sectors is on is it worth investing now.
What is the share price of Thai Union Group PCL (TUFBY)?
The closing price on Oct 1, 2026 was $7.15. Our model-based fair value is $6.26, about −12% upside (overvalued). We carry closing prices from our data provider, not a live tick.
What should I pay attention to with Thai Union Group PCL ADR right now?
Solid but not exceptional quality (47/100) and above fair value, neither a clear bargain nor a standout compounder. The price sits above our optimistic bull case: the favourable scenario is already priced in. Read the verdict with care: some models are missing inputs, so the estimate scatters more than usual.
Where does the earnings growth of Thai Union Group PCL (TUFBY) come from?
Earnings per share at Thai Union Group PCL ADR grew +0.6 % a year from 2014 to 2025. Broken into its drivers: revenue per share +1.8 %, EBIT margin −2.0 %, tax rate +2.1 %, residual (interest, one-offs) −1.3 %. The four rates multiply to the earnings growth rate, they do not add up. Start and end are three-year averages so a single exceptional year does not distort the result.
Key figures of Thai Union Group PCL ADR
How large is the market capitalisation of Thai Union Group PCL (TUFBY)?
The market capitalisation of Thai Union Group PCL ADR is $1.4B. The stock-market value of the whole company: share price times number of shares. It is what the market asks for the entire business today.
What is the P/S ratio of Thai Union Group PCL (TUFBY)?
The price-to-sales ratio of Thai Union Group PCL ADR is 0.34 (P/E × margin). Price to sales: market value relative to yearly revenue. Useful when profit is thin or distorted.
What are the earnings per share of Thai Union Group PCL (TUFBY)?
Earnings per share at Thai Union Group PCL ADR are $0.7300 (price ÷ EPS = P/E 9.8). Earnings per share over the last twelve months: total profit spread across every single share.
What is the dividend yield of Thai Union Group PCL (TUFBY)?
The dividend yield of Thai Union Group PCL ADR is 9.8% (payout 95.9%). Yearly dividend relative to the share price. 3% pays 3 per 100 invested. Below: how much of profit is used for it.
What is the net margin of Thai Union Group PCL (TUFBY)?
The net margin of Thai Union Group PCL ADR is 3.5% (fiscal year 2025). How much of every unit of revenue ends up as profit. 10% means 10 cents of profit per dollar of sales.
What is the return on equity of Thai Union Group PCL (TUFBY)?
The return on equity (ROE) of Thai Union Group PCL ADR is 10.6% (last twelve months). Profit relative to shareholders' equity, how efficiently the company works with its owners' money.
What is the EBIT return on assets of Thai Union Group PCL (TUFBY)?
On an EBIT basis the return on assets of Thai Union Group PCL ADR is 4.6% (avg 5y). Operating profit (EBIT) relative to everything the company owns, as a multi-year average. It describes the business model rather than one good or bad year.
What is the operating margin of Thai Union Group PCL (TUFBY)?
The operating margin of Thai Union Group PCL ADR is 3.6% (last twelve months). Profit from the core business (before interest and taxes) relative to revenue.
How fast is revenue growing at Thai Union Group PCL (TUFBY)?
Revenue at Thai Union Group PCL ADR is growing +7.6% versus a year earlier (3y avg −6.5%). How much revenue grew versus a year earlier (YoY). The 3-year average next to it puts the single year in context.
How fast are earnings growing at Thai Union Group PCL (TUFBY)?
Earnings per share at Thai Union Group PCL ADR are growing +18.0% versus a year earlier. How much earnings per share grew versus a year earlier.
How much free cash flow does Thai Union Group PCL (TUFBY) generate?
The free cash flow of Thai Union Group PCL ADR is −629M THB (fiscal year 2025). The cash truly left after running and investing in the business, this is what pays dividends and buybacks.
How much net debt does Thai Union Group PCL (TUFBY) carry?
The net debt of Thai Union Group PCL ADR is 67.3B THB (fiscal year 2025). Debt minus cash on hand. The note shows how many years of free cash flow could in theory pay it off.
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Sep 24, 2026