Upstream Bio, Inc (UPB) Fair Value & Analysis
Healthcare · US · Market cap $344M
Upstream Bio, Inc
UPB · US
Fair value as of: Jul 24, 2026
From 1 valuation models · updated 17 days ago
Share price −9.1% over the past month.
Below-average quality, and screening another 14% overvalued on our models.
What matters now
- A fairly wide model range ($4.10 to $7.76) leaves room in how you read the outcome.
- Evidence is limited here (fewer models, shorter history), so the fair value is a rougher estimate than usual.
Price vs Fair Value (22 months)
White line = price, green steps = our fair value per fiscal year, dashed = 300-day average. As of Jul 24, 2026.
How to read this chart
22‑month range $5.92 – $32.60 · fair‑value band $4.10 – $7.76 · the $7.25 price screens above the $6.21 fair value. Dashed = 300-day average. As of Jul 24, 2026.
Analysis
Upstream Bio, Inc (UPB) currently trades at $7.25, while our model-based Fair Value estimate is $6.21, implying the stock looks roughly 14.3% overvalued today. The Quality Score stands at 28/100 (below-average quality), in the Healthcare sector. Bear case: priced above our estimate, the market already discounts strong expectations. Bull case: above-average quality can justify a premium, the entry price still matters most (evidence: low).
Trailing-twelve-month revenue stands at $3.3M. Revenue grew 82.7% year over year. It earns a return on equity of -41.8%. The balance sheet holds a net cash position of $100M. Fundamentals as of Jul 24, 2026
Our scenario range runs from $4.10 (bear case) to $7.76 (bull case); at $7.25, the current price sits within that range. Bear and bull are the same models run on conservative and optimistic assumptions (margins, growth, valuation multiples), so a plausible valuation range, not a price target. The share trades about 78% below its 52-week high and 24% above its 52-week low, currently below its 200-day average. For context, the median of 10 Healthcare peers we cover trades at -43% fair-value upside, at -14%, UPB screens cheaper than that median.
Fair Value models
Each model estimates fair value its own way; the Fair Value above is the evidence-weighted blend. Evidence (0–100) measures how completely this model’s inputs are available: well-fed models carry more weight in the blend. The spread across models is intentional, each one stresses a different value driver; dividend models, for instance, come out structurally low when payout is small.
All 1 models by family
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Key figures & financial health
More key figures
Figures from reported company fundamentals · as of Jul 24, 2026. TTM = trailing twelve months.
Quality Score breakdown
Of which business quality 34 · Market factors (momentum, volatility) 4
Non-valuation factor families (profitability, growth, cashflow, financial strength, momentum …), each academically grounded. Valuation itself sits in the Fair Value and is deliberately excluded here to avoid double-counting.
About the company
Upstream Bio, Inc., a clinical-stage biotechnology company, develops treatments for inflammatory diseases focusing on severe respiratory disorders.
Full company description
Upstream Bio, Inc., a clinical-stage biotechnology company, develops treatments for inflammatory diseases focusing on severe respiratory disorders. It offers verekitug, which is in Phase 2 trials for the treatment of severe asthma and chronic rhinosinusitis with nasal polyps and chronic obstructive pulmonary disease and in Phase I clinical trial for treating chronic obstructive pulmonary disease. The company was incorporated in 2021 and is headquartered in Waltham, Massachusetts.
Company description, as reported by the company or data provider.
Revenue & earnings trend
FY2022 – FY2025 · reported fiscal years
Upstream Bio, Inc reported revenue of $2.9M in FY2025 versus $1.2M in FY2022, a compound +33.0%/yr. Reported net income was −$143M in FY2025.
UPB screens 14% overvalued. Compare with Vertex Pharmaceuticals Incorporated →
Peer Group
Biotechnology · 601 stocks
How this stock ranks against its industry: the green marker is this stock, the band is the typical 25–75% peer range, and the tick is the median.
Valuation Multiples vs Biotechnology median · lower = cheaper
Snowflake
Five quick dimensions, each 0 to 100: VALUE (fair-value potential), FUTURE (revenue growth), PAST (return on equity), HEALTH (low debt), DIVIDEND (yield). Green = this stock, grey = typical sector peer.
Values & ESG
Does this company touch areas you may want to avoid? The classification is inferred from sector and industry.
ESG scores are not available for this stock yet. Values and ESG data are contextual and can differ between providers.
Similar stocks
10 more Biotechnology stocks, each showing price versus our Fair Value estimate (as of Jul 24, 2026).
| Stock | Price | Fair Value | vs Fair Value |
|---|---|---|---|
| Vertex Pharmaceuticals Incorporated VRTX | $486.03 | $278.78 | -43% |
| Regeneron Pharmaceuticals, Inc REGN | $664.45 | $594.40 | -11% |
| Samsung Biologics Co 207940 | 1,368,000 KRW | 1,091,384 KRW | -20% |
| Celltrion, Inc 068270 | 175,800 KRW | 76,325 KRW | -57% |
| WuXi Biologics (Cayman) Inc 2269 | HK$39.54 | HK$30.42 | -23% |
| Innovent Biologics, Inc 1801 | HK$86.70 | HK$19.66 | -77% |
| Sino Biopharmaceutical Limited 1177 | HK$5.26 | HK$3.36 | -36% |
| ALTEOGEN Inc 196170 | 276,500 KRW | 44,444 KRW | -84% |
| RemeGen Co 688331 | ¥134.02 | ¥26.99 | -80% |
| Biocon Limited BIOCON | ₹440.70 | ₹57.36 | -87% |
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How we calculate Fair Value
Each company is valued through a stack of independent intrinsic-value models (DCF variants, residual-income, multiples and more), blended into one family-balanced consensus and weighted by how much trustworthy data backs it. A separate quality layer scores the fundamentals. Every input is real reported data, nothing guessed.
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