Universal Robina Corp (UVRBY) fair value: what the stock is really worth
As of Sep 25, 2026: fair value of Universal Robina Corp $14.12, price $10.90, upside +29.5%, quality 61 out of 100. Calculated from audited financials with 26 valuation models and 37 quality factors, updated daily.
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Price vs Fair Value
White line = price, green steps = our fair value per fiscal year, dashed = 300-day average. As of Sep 24, 2026.
How to read this chart
60‑month range $7.52 – $33.82 · fair‑value band $9.20 – $18.36 · the $10.90 price screens below the $14.12 fair value. Green steps = our fair value per fiscal year (point-in-time, no hindsight). Dashed = 300-day average. As of Sep 24, 2026.
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Universal Robina Corporation engages in the manufacture of branded food product in the Philippines and internationally. It operates through three segments: Branded Consumer Foods, Animal Nutrition and Health and Commodities.
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Universal Robina Corporation engages in the manufacture of branded food product in the Philippines and internationally. It operates through three segments: Branded Consumer Foods, Animal Nutrition and Health and Commodities. The Branded Consumer Foods segment manufactures, distributes, sells, and markets a range of food and beverage products, such as snacky chips, chocolates, canned beans, candies, coffee, biscuits, beverages, and noodles, as well as ready-to-drink tea products. This segment also manufactures bi-axially oriented polypropylene films that are used in packaging; and flexible packaging materials for branded products. The Animal Nutrition and Health segment focuses on animal nutrition and animal feed; pet food; and drugs and disinfectants segments, as well as engages in hog and poultry farming. This segment is also involved in sugar milling and refining, as well as flour milling and pasta manufacturing activities; production and distribution of glucose and soya products; and renewable energy business. The Commodities segment includes sugar and renewables, including sugar, distillery, and cogeneration, flour, and others. The company engages in bonds and securities investment and fund sourcing activities. It also sells its branded food products to convenience stores, trading companies, and distributors, as well as consumer food products through retailers and regional distributors. The company's licensed brands include Vitasoy, Calbee and B'lue, and others. Universal Robina Corporation was founded in 1954 and is based in Quezon City, the Philippines. Universal Robina Corporation is a subsidiary of JG Summit Holdings, Inc.
Stock analysis
Universal Robina Corp ADR (UVRBY) currently trades at $10.90, while our model-based Fair Value estimate is $14.12, implying the stock looks roughly 22.8% undervalued today.
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Valuation
Bull case: the Multiples group reads highest at a median of $15.85 per share, and 18 of the 24 models we run sit above the $10.90 price.
Bear case: the Earnings-Based group reads lowest at $4.85, and 6 of the 24 models stay below the price. Evidence for this calculation is high.
Scenario range: $9.20 (bear) to $18.36 (bull), the price of $10.90 sits inside it. Bear and bull are the same models on cautious and optimistic assumptions, a range, not a price target.
Quality & growth
The Quality Score stands at 61/100 (solid quality), in the Consumer Defensive sector.
Mixed Growth: Revenue is growing, but margins or cash flow do not fully confirm the trend.
Universal Robina Corp ADR reported revenue of 168B PHP in FY2025 versus 117B PHP in FY2021, a compound +9.5%/yr. Reported net income was 10.2B PHP in FY2025, compounding −18.7%/yr from FY2021.
Key figures
Market cap $2.1B · P/E ratio 14.0 · P/S ratio 0.85 · EPS (TTM) $0.7800 · Net margin 6.1% · Return on equity 8.7% · Return on assets (EBIT) 8.9% · Operating margin 11.2%.
Competitive moat
Our AI-assisted moat analysis scores the competitive advantage at 48 out of 100 (low confidence).
What moves the price
The share trades about 16% below its 52-week high and 45% above its 52-week low, currently below its 200-day average.
For context, the median of 10 Consumer Defensive peers we cover trades at 9% fair-value upside, at 30%, UVRBY screens cheaper than that median.
Fair Value models
Bear $9.20Fair Value $14.12Bull $18.36
Model ⓘEach model values the company its own way (discounted cash flow, earnings, assets, dividends). The fair value above is their evidence-weighted blend, not the output of a single model.Bear ⓘBear = the cautious scenario: the same model computed with conservative anchors (lower growth, margins and valuation multiples). Together with Bull it frames a plausible valuation range, not a price target.BaseBull ⓘBull = the optimistic scenario: the same model computed with favourable anchors (higher growth, margins and valuation multiples). Together with Bear it frames a plausible valuation range, not a price target. If a model's bull case is above four times its base value, the table shows that limit with a > sign (like the overall Bull above): beyond it no assumption holds.Evidence ⓘEvidence = how well-backed THIS model's estimate is for this stock (0–100): how complete and reliable its input data are, and how well the model fits the company. The final Fair Value is an evidence-weighted blend, so better-evidenced models count more. Green ≥70, amber 50–69, grey below 50.
Growth Quality ⓘGrowth is valuable only when reinvestment earns attractive returns (Aswath Damodaran): sustainable growth depends on return on capital, reinvestment and efficiency. Basis: total company revenue over the periods shown on the cards (3Y/5Y/all years), not per share, so a merger can show up as a growth jump; per-share earnings growth is in the value-creation card.54/100
Revenue is growing, but margins or cash flow do not fully confirm the trend.
Revenue growth 1 year
+3.8%
Revenue growth 3 years ⓘMeasures the company's TOTAL revenue from reported annual statements: compound average growth per year (CAGR) from the fiscal year 3, 5 or N years back to the most recent comparable fiscal year. Not per share: buybacks do not change this number, and a merger can appear as a growth jump. Per-share growth (which does include buybacks) is in the value-creation card.
+4.1%
Revenue growth 5 years ⓘMeasures the company's TOTAL revenue from reported annual statements: compound average growth per year (CAGR) from the fiscal year 3, 5 or N years back to the most recent comparable fiscal year. Not per share: buybacks do not change this number, and a merger can appear as a growth jump. Per-share growth (which does include buybacks) is in the value-creation card.
+4.8%
Start year 2020 (pandemic). Over 10 years: +4.4% a year
Revenue growth 20 years ⓘMeasures the company's TOTAL revenue from reported annual statements: compound average growth per year (CAGR) from the fiscal year 3, 5 or N years back to the most recent comparable fiscal year. Not per share: buybacks do not change this number, and a merger can appear as a growth jump. Per-share growth (which does include buybacks) is in the value-creation card.
+8.8%
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What shareholders gained per year (last 5 years), in PHP (mathematically smoothed) ⓘWhat the business itself delivers per year: earnings growth per share plus the dividend yield. This is what you get IF the market keeps valuing the stock the same way: it contains no assumption about the market changing its mind. Computed per share, so buybacks count and a merger does not pass as growth. For a company that pays no dividend it is pure earnings growth per share. Period: earnings growth per share as CAGR over the last 5 reported fiscal years (annual statements), plus the current dividend yield. The start value is the median of the three years around the start, so a single crisis year (a pandemic or a write-down) does not distort the rate. Smoothed = median of all growth paths between the years of the window (trend line on the logarithm of earnings per share): a single extreme year cannot distort the rate. The reported figure stays in the tooltip. Measured in PHP: this currency has depreciated against the euro and dollar over the long run, so part of the nominal rate is currency erosion that never reaches a EUR/USD investor.
+4.4%
Earnings growth per share plus dividend.
Earnings per share, growth per year+4.4%
Dividend (yield on the price)0.0%
Pace: 5 vs 10 years ⓘTwo data points, not a trend model: earnings growth per share over the last 5 fiscal years against the last 10. Labelled "steady" when both rates are within 3 percentage points of each other, otherwise picking up or flattening. Shown only when ten years of history exist.57.8% vs 23.7%, picking up
Profit margin 2020 to 2025 ⓘOperating margin then vs now, from reported annual statements. A falling margin after a boom year is the classic peak-earnings signal: the growth rate then leans on an inflated base.12% → 9%
2025 sits 759% above its own trend. The rate follows the median trend of the last 5 years, not that single year.
Start year 2020 (pandemic)
Growth Forecast
A lot of optimism in the price
The price assumes more growth than the company has delivered so far and more than analysts expect.
What the price assumes ⓘThis turns our valuation around: instead of asking what the share is worth, it asks what growth the current price requires. It uses the cash the company keeps after all spending (free cash flow), the same discount rate as our models, five years of growth, then slowing evenly to 2 % a year by year ten. Compared with the analysts' sales forecasts extended to the same five years (at least three analysts, for context only, it does not enter the Fair Value): within 3 percentage points counts as "in line" (amber), below that little optimism (green), above that a lot of optimism (red).
+61.9%
Yearly growth needed for the next five years to justify today's price.
What forecasts expect ⓘAnalysts publish sales forecasts for the next two fiscal years. For the years after that, growth slows evenly to 2 % a year by year ten (2 % is the long-run rate our models use). Projected years are marked as such.
+4.4%
Yearly sales growth analysts expect, extended to five years.
After inflation (figures in PHP, Philippines: IMF forecast 3.3% a year to 2030, 3.5% from 2016 to 2025) that is about +56.7% a year for the price and +1.1% for the forecasts.
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Peer GroupⓘHow this stock ranks against its industry: the green marker is this stock, the band is the typical 25–75% peer range, and the tick is the median.Packaged Foods · 634 stocks
Beats the industry median on 11/14 measures
Overall it ranks above its industry peers.
Valuation
Quality Score61 · Above median
Fair Value upside−31.4% · Below median
Profitability
Return on equity (TTM)8.7% · Above median
Return on assets5.2% · Above median
Net margin (TTM)6.0% · Above median
Operating margin (TTM)11.2% · Top 25%
Growth and dividend
Revenue growth5.8% · Above median
Dividend yield (TTM)18.3% · Top 25%
Valuation Multiplesvs Packaged Foods median · lower = cheaper
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Is Universal Robina Corp (UVRBY) overvalued or undervalued?
As of Sep 24, 2026, our model estimates a fair value of $14.12 versus the last price from Sep 25, 2026 of $10.90, about +30% upside (undervalued).
What is the fair value of UVRBY?
Our model-based fair value for Universal Robina Corp ADR is $14.12 (as of Sep 24, 2026), built from audited fundamentals. Last price (from Sep 25, 2026): $10.90.
What is the quality score of UVRBY?
Universal Robina Corp ADR has a Quality Score of 61/100. It measures business quality (profitability, growth, cash flow, balance-sheet strength, investment discipline, share issuance). Market factors such as price momentum and volatility do not enter the number; they are shown separately in the detail view.
What is the price target for Universal Robina Corp (UVRBY)?
Our model-based price target is the fair value of $14.12 (as of Sep 24, 2026) from 24 valuation models. Cautious scenario $9.20, optimistic scenario $18.36. It is a calculation from audited fundamentals, not an analyst target.
What is the Universal Robina Corp ADR stock forecast for 2026?
Our models put fair value at $14.12, about +30% upside versus the last price from Sep 25, 2026 of $10.90 (undervalued). Cautious scenario $9.20, optimistic scenario $18.36. The calculation is refreshed regularly with new filings.
What is the revenue of Universal Robina Corp (UVRBY)?
Universal Robina Corp ADR reported trailing-twelve-month revenue of about 169B PHP (latest available figure, as of Sep 24, 2026).
What growth is priced into Universal Robina Corp (UVRBY)?
For today's price to be fair in a discounted-cash-flow model, Universal Robina Corp ADR would have to grow free cash flow by +61.9 % per year for five years (discount rate 8.8 %, then slowing evenly to 2 % perpetual growth by year ten). Over the last 5 years revenue grew +4.8 % per year. As of Sep 24, 2026.
What discount rate (WACC) does the fair value of UVRBY use?
Our models discount Universal Robina Corp ADR at 8.8 %: a base by market capitalisation (mid), damped by beta 0.61, country premium for USA. The same rate applies in all 26 models.
What is a reverse DCF?
A reverse DCF turns the usual calculation around. Instead of deriving a value from assumptions, it takes today's price as given and asks: what free-cash-flow growth would a company have to deliver for exactly this price to be fair? The result is not a forecast but the expectation already priced in. For Universal Robina Corp ADR that is +61.9 % per year a year over ten years, using the same discount rate (8.8 %) and the same formula as our fair value.
How much growth has Universal Robina Corp (UVRBY) delivered so far?
Over the past 5 years revenue at Universal Robina Corp ADR grew +4.8 % a year. The price currently implies +61.9 % per year free-cash-flow growth a year. Comparing the two shows how much confidence is in the price: if it demands more than has been delivered, the business has to accelerate for the maths to work.
How fast is the sector of Universal Robina Corp (UVRBY) growing?
The median revenue growth in the sector is +3.0 % a year. That is the yardstick for the growth priced into Universal Robina Corp ADR (+61.9 % per year a year): it shows whether the expectation is within the usual range or beyond it.
What is the free cash flow yield of Universal Robina Corp (UVRBY)?
The free-cash-flow yield on the price is 0.33 %: that much free cash flow Universal Robina Corp ADR produces per unit of market value. When it exceeds the discount rate of our models (8.8 %), the business already earns more than its cost of capital demands, and the price needs little additional growth.
What is the intrinsic value of Universal Robina Corp (UVRBY)?
Intrinsic value and fair value mean the same thing: what the business is worth on its numbers, independent of the share price. For Universal Robina Corp ADR it is $14.12 per share (as of Sep 24, 2026), against a price of $10.90. It is the blended result of 24 valuation models (cash flow, earnings, asset, dividend).
Is Universal Robina Corp ADR stock overvalued or undervalued in 2026?
As of Sep 24, 2026, UVRBY trades below its calculated fair value: price $10.90, fair value $14.12, a gap of about +30% (undervalued). The calculation is refreshed with each new quarterly report, so the verdict can change during the year.
Is fair value the same as the market price of UVRBY?
No. The price is what the market pays today ($10.90); the fair value is what the company's own numbers justify ($14.12). For Universal Robina Corp ADR the two are $3.22 per share apart. That gap is exactly why we show both numbers side by side.
How much is Universal Robina Corp ADR worth?
The market values Universal Robina Corp ADR at about $2.1B (market capitalisation, as of Sep 24, 2026). Per share that is $10.90; our models calculate a fair value of $14.12 per share.
What do the bullish and bearish scenarios say about UVRBY?
Our models span a range for Universal Robina Corp ADR: cautious scenario $9.20, base $14.12, optimistic $18.36 per share (as of Sep 24, 2026, price $10.90). The range comes from different growth and margin assumptions, not from analyst opinions.
What is the P/E ratio of UVRBY?
Universal Robina Corp ADR trades at a price-to-earnings ratio of 14.0 (as of Sep 24, 2026). A P/E on its own says little: it compares the price with ONE year of profit, while our fair value of $14.12 is built from several models across several years. Other multiples: PEG 2.1, P/B 1.1, P/S 0.8, EV/EBITDA 5.6.
What is the PEG ratio of UVRBY?
The PEG ratio of Universal Robina Corp ADR is 2.10 (P/E divided by earnings growth, as of Sep 24, 2026). That is above 1, so the growth is already paid for in the price.
How solid is the balance sheet of Universal Robina Corp (UVRBY)?
Balance-sheet figures for Universal Robina Corp ADR (as of Sep 24, 2026): return on equity 8.7%. They feed the Quality Score of 61/100, which measures business quality independently of the share price.
How far is UVRBY from its 52-week high?
Universal Robina Corp ADR trades at $10.90, about 16% below its 52-week high of $13.03 and 45% above the low of $7.52 (as of Sep 25, 2026). Distance from the high says nothing about value: that is what the fair value of $14.12 is for.
Which stocks are comparable to Universal Robina Corp ADR?
From the same area (Consumer Defensive) we also value Nestlé S.A, Danone S.A, Foshan Haitian Flavouring and Food Company, The Kraft Heinz Company, among others. Each of them has its own fair-value calculation on this site using the same models, so the comparison is like for like.
Is Universal Robina Corp ADR stock attractive at the current price?
The data as of Sep 24, 2026: price $10.90, calculated fair value $14.12 (+30%), Quality Score 61/100, from 24 models. Whether that fits your horizon and risk tolerance is your call. We provide the calculation, not investment advice.
How is the fair value of UVRBY calculated?
We run Universal Robina Corp ADR through 24 models from four families: discounted cash flow, earnings models, asset and balance-sheet models, and dividend models. Every model gets the same audited fundamentals; the result is the weighted average of $14.12, with the spread shown as a cautious and an optimistic scenario.
Is it still worth investing in stocks now?
The global stock market currently sits 14.5 % above its aggregate fair value. Universal Robina Corp ADR currently trades 23 % below its own fair value, and the market average says nothing about that. An expensive market is no reason to stay out and no reason to buy everything at once: keep a broad savings plan running, buy single stocks only with money you can do without, and hold part of your money liquid while the market is high. The full picture including sectors is on is it worth investing now.
What is the share price of Universal Robina Corp (UVRBY)?
The latest price we hold is from Sep 25, 2026 and stands at $10.90. Our model-based fair value is $14.12, about +30% upside (undervalued). We carry closing prices from our data provider, not a live tick.
What should I pay attention to with Universal Robina Corp ADR right now?
Solid quality (61/100) at a price below fair value, the discount is the argument here, not the business quality. A fairly wide model range ($9.20 to $18.36) leaves room in how you read the outcome.
Where does the earnings growth of Universal Robina Corp (UVRBY) come from?
Earnings per share at Universal Robina Corp ADR grew +2.5 % a year from 2014 to 2025. Broken into its drivers: revenue per share +9.4 %, EBIT margin −4.6 %, tax rate −0.2 %, residual (interest, one-offs) −1.6 %. The four rates multiply to the earnings growth rate, they do not add up. Start and end are three-year averages so a single exceptional year does not distort the result.
Key figures of Universal Robina Corp ADR
How large is the market capitalisation of Universal Robina Corp (UVRBY)?
The market capitalisation of Universal Robina Corp ADR is $2.1B. The stock-market value of the whole company: share price times number of shares. It is what the market asks for the entire business today.
What is the P/S ratio of Universal Robina Corp (UVRBY)?
The price-to-sales ratio of Universal Robina Corp ADR is 0.85 (P/E × margin). Price to sales: market value relative to yearly revenue. Useful when profit is thin or distorted.
What are the earnings per share of Universal Robina Corp (UVRBY)?
Earnings per share at Universal Robina Corp ADR are $0.7800 (price ÷ EPS = P/E 14.0). Earnings per share over the last twelve months: total profit spread across every single share.
What is the net margin of Universal Robina Corp (UVRBY)?
The net margin of Universal Robina Corp ADR is 6.1% (fiscal year 2025). How much of every unit of revenue ends up as profit. 10% means 10 cents of profit per dollar of sales.
What is the return on equity of Universal Robina Corp (UVRBY)?
The return on equity (ROE) of Universal Robina Corp ADR is 8.7% (last twelve months). Profit relative to shareholders' equity, how efficiently the company works with its owners' money.
What is the EBIT return on assets of Universal Robina Corp (UVRBY)?
On an EBIT basis the return on assets of Universal Robina Corp ADR is 8.9% (avg 5y). Operating profit (EBIT) relative to everything the company owns, as a multi-year average. It describes the business model rather than one good or bad year.
What is the operating margin of Universal Robina Corp (UVRBY)?
The operating margin of Universal Robina Corp ADR is 11.2% (last twelve months). Profit from the core business (before interest and taxes) relative to revenue.
How fast is revenue growing at Universal Robina Corp (UVRBY)?
Revenue at Universal Robina Corp ADR is growing +5.8% versus a year earlier (3y avg +4.1%). How much revenue grew versus a year earlier (YoY). The 3-year average next to it puts the single year in context.
How fast are earnings growing at Universal Robina Corp (UVRBY)?
Earnings per share at Universal Robina Corp ADR are growing −1.7% versus a year earlier. How much earnings per share grew versus a year earlier.
How much net debt does Universal Robina Corp (UVRBY) carry?
The net debt of Universal Robina Corp ADR is 14.9B PHP (fiscal year 2025, ≈ 3.1 yrs of FCF). Debt minus cash on hand. The note shows how many years of free cash flow could in theory pay it off.
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Broad data
Sep 24, 2026