Velocity Financial, Inc (VEL) Fair Value & Analysis
Financial Services · US · Market cap $693M
Velocity Financial, Inc
VEL · US
Fair value as of: Jun 26, 2026
From 26 valuation models · updated 10 days ago
Share price +7.3% over the past month.
Price vs Fair Value (12 months)
12‑month range $15.61 – $19.84 · fair‑value band $26.09 – $37.40 · the $17.75 price screens below the $34.79 fair value. As of Jun 26, 2026.
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Velocity Financial, Inc (VEL) currently trades at $17.75, while our model-based Fair Value estimate is $34.79 — implying the stock looks roughly 96.0% undervalued today. We read business quality at 43/100 (below-average quality), in the Financial Services sector. Bull case: trading below our estimate, it may offer upside if the fundamentals hold. Bear case: a low price can be a value trap when quality is weak or the data is thin (evidence: high) — always confirm before acting.
Over the trailing twelve months, Velocity Financial, Inc generated revenue of $272M at a net margin of 40.0%. Revenue grew 132.1% year over year. It earns a return on equity of 17.2%. Net debt stands at $6.4B. Fundamentals as of Jun 26, 2026
Our scenario range runs from $26.09 (bear case) to $37.40 (bull case); at $17.75, the current price sits below that range. The share trades about 17% below its 52-week high and 10% above its 52-week low, currently below its 200-day average. For context, the median of 10 Financial Services peers we cover trades at 7% fair-value upside — at 96%, VEL screens cheaper than that median.
Key figures & financial health
More key figures
Figures from reported company fundamentals (EODHD) · as of Jun 26, 2026. TTM = trailing twelve months.
About the company
Velocity Financial, Inc. operates as a real estate finance company in the United States. The company originates, securitizes, and manages a portfolio of loans, which are secured by real estate, including investor loans unit residential rental properties; residential rental properties office; and loans for multi-family, mixed use, and commercial properties. The company also provides warehouse and other properties. It offers its products through a network of independent mortgage brokers and direct borrower relationships. The company was founded in 2004 and is headquartered in Westlake Village, California
Revenue & earnings trend
FY2021 – FY2025 · reported fiscal years
Velocity Financial, Inc reported revenue of $714M in FY2025 versus $181M in FY2021, a compound +40.9%/yr. Reported net income was $105M in FY2025, compounding +37.7%/yr from FY2021.
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Similar stocks
10 more Mortgage Finance stocks, each showing price versus our Fair Value estimate (as of Jun 26, 2026).
| Stock | Price | Fair Value | vs Fair Value |
|---|---|---|---|
| Federal Home Loan Mortgage Corporation FMCCT | $16.45 | $30.59 | +86% |
| Rocket Companies, Inc RKT | $12.54 | $5.20 | -59% |
| Federal National Mortgage Association FNMAS | $11.65 | $23.30 | +100% |
| Bajaj Housing Finance Limited BAJAJHFL | ₹91.33 | ₹61.48 | -33% |
| PennyMac Financial Services, Inc PFSI | $80.08 | $81.01 | +1% |
| LIC Housing Finance Limited LICHSGFIN | ₹553.70 | ₹1,107 | +100% |
| PNB Housing Finance Limited PNBHOUSING | ₹1,064 | ₹1,143 | +7% |
| Aadhar Housing Finance Limited AADHARHFC | ₹518.50 | ₹501.16 | -3% |
| OSB Group OSBGF | $6.65 | $11.99 | +80% |
| Walker & Dunlop, Inc WD | $53.00 | $32.55 | -39% |
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How we calculate Fair Value
Each company is valued through a stack of independent intrinsic-value models (DCF variants, residual-income, multiples and more), blended into one family-balanced consensus and weighted by how much trustworthy data backs it. A separate quality layer scores the fundamentals. Every input is real reported data — nothing guessed.
Not financial advice · no buy/sell recommendation. Model-based estimates are not certainties; their reliability depends on data quality and assumptions.