Velocity Financial Llc (VEL) fair value: what the stock is really worth
As of Sep 23, 2026: fair value of Velocity Financial Llc $32.56, price $15.82, upside +105.8%, quality 37 out of 100. Calculated from audited financials with 26 valuation models and 37 quality factors, updated daily.
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Price vs Fair Value
White line = price, green steps = our fair value per fiscal year, dashed = 300-day average. As of Sep 23, 2026.
How to read this chart
60‑month range $7.93 – $20.76 · fair‑value band $10.23 – $36.97 · the $15.82 price screens below the $32.56 fair value. Green steps = our fair value per fiscal year (point-in-time, no hindsight). Dashed = 300-day average. As of Sep 23, 2026.
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Velocity Financial, Inc. operates as a real estate finance company in the United States. The company originates, securitizes, and manages a portfolio of loans, which are secured by real estate, including investor loans unit residential rental properties; residential rental properties office; and loans for multi-family, mixed use, and commercial properties.
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Velocity Financial, Inc. operates as a real estate finance company in the United States. The company originates, securitizes, and manages a portfolio of loans, which are secured by real estate, including investor loans unit residential rental properties; residential rental properties office; and loans for multi-family, mixed use, and commercial properties. The company also provides warehouse and other properties. It offers its products through a network of independent mortgage brokers and direct borrower relationships. The company was founded in 2004 and is headquartered in Westlake Village, California
Stock analysis
Velocity Financial Llc (VEL) currently trades at $15.82, while our model-based Fair Value estimate is $32.56, implying the stock looks roughly 51.4% undervalued today.
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Valuation
Bull case: the DCF Models group reads highest at a median of $131.82 per share, and 7 of the 8 models we run sit above the $15.82 price.
Bear case: the Asset-Based group reads lowest at $11.48, and 1 of the 8 models stay below the price. Evidence for this calculation is high.
Scenario range: $10.23 (bear) to $36.97 (bull), the price of $15.82 sits inside it. Bear and bull are the same models on cautious and optimistic assumptions, a range, not a price target.
Quality & growth
The Quality Score stands at 37/100 (below-average quality), in the Financial Services sector.
Expensive Growth: The company is growing, but growth may require heavy reinvestment or weak cash conversion.
Velocity Financial Llc reported revenue of $714M in FY2025 versus $181M in FY2021, a compound +40.9%/yr. Reported net income was $105M in FY2025, compounding +37.7%/yr from FY2021.
Key figures
Market cap $693M · P/E ratio 5.6 · P/S ratio 0.83 · EPS (TTM) $2.81 · Net margin 14.7% · Return on equity 17.2% · Return on assets (EBIT) 2.6% · Operating margin 38.2%.
Competitive moat
Our AI-assisted moat analysis scores the competitive advantage at 38 out of 100 (low confidence).
What moves the price
The share trades about 24% below its 52-week high and at its 52-week low, currently below its 200-day average.
For context, the median of 10 Financial Services peers we cover trades at 17% fair-value upside, at 106%, VEL screens cheaper than that median.
Fair Value models
Bear $10.23Fair Value $32.56Bull $36.97
Model ⓘEach model values the company its own way (discounted cash flow, earnings, assets, dividends). The fair value above is their evidence-weighted blend, not the output of a single model. Based on fiscal year 2025 figures (about 9 months old). Earnings retained since then ($2.06 per share) are deliberately not added.Bear ⓘBear = the cautious scenario: the same model computed with conservative anchors (lower growth, margins and valuation multiples). Together with Bull it frames a plausible valuation range, not a price target.BaseBull ⓘBull = the optimistic scenario: the same model computed with favourable anchors (higher growth, margins and valuation multiples). Together with Bear it frames a plausible valuation range, not a price target.Evidence ⓘEvidence = how well-backed THIS model's estimate is for this stock (0–100): how complete and reliable its input data are, and how well the model fits the company. The final Fair Value is an evidence-weighted blend, so better-evidenced models count more. Green ≥70, amber 50–69, grey below 50.
Growth Quality ⓘGrowth is valuable only when reinvestment earns attractive returns (Aswath Damodaran): sustainable growth depends on return on capital, reinvestment and efficiency. Basis: total company revenue over the periods shown on the cards (3Y/5Y/all years), not per share, so a merger can show up as a growth jump; per-share earnings growth is in the value-creation card.62/100
The company is growing, but growth may require heavy reinvestment or weak cash conversion.
Revenue growth 1 year
+48.0%
Revenue growth 3 years ⓘMeasures the company's TOTAL revenue from reported annual statements: compound average growth per year (CAGR) from the fiscal year 3, 5 or N years back to the most recent comparable fiscal year. Not per share: buybacks do not change this number, and a merger can appear as a growth jump. Per-share growth (which does include buybacks) is in the value-creation card.
+42.2%
Revenue growth 5 years ⓘMeasures the company's TOTAL revenue from reported annual statements: compound average growth per year (CAGR) from the fiscal year 3, 5 or N years back to the most recent comparable fiscal year. Not per share: buybacks do not change this number, and a merger can appear as a growth jump. Per-share growth (which does include buybacks) is in the value-creation card.
+33.9%
Start year 2020 (pandemic). Over 10 years: +28.9% a year
Revenue growth 11 years ⓘMeasures the company's TOTAL revenue from reported annual statements: compound average growth per year (CAGR) from the fiscal year 3, 5 or N years back to the most recent comparable fiscal year. Not per share: buybacks do not change this number, and a merger can appear as a growth jump. Per-share growth (which does include buybacks) is in the value-creation card.
+34.9%
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What shareholders gained per year (last 5 years) (mathematically smoothed) ⓘWhat the business itself delivers per year: earnings growth per share plus the dividend yield. This is what you get IF the market keeps valuing the stock the same way: it contains no assumption about the market changing its mind. Computed per share, so buybacks count and a merger does not pass as growth. For a company that pays no dividend it is pure earnings growth per share. Period: earnings growth per share as CAGR over the last 5 reported fiscal years (annual statements), plus the current dividend yield. The start value is the median of the three years around the start, so a single crisis year (a pandemic or a write-down) does not distort the rate. Smoothed = median of all growth paths between the years of the window (trend line on the logarithm of earnings per share): a single extreme year cannot distort the rate. The reported figure stays in the tooltip.
+30.5%
Earnings growth per share plus dividend.
Earnings per share, growth per year+30.5%
Dividend (yield on the price)0.0%
Pace: 5 vs 10 years ⓘTwo data points, not a trend model: earnings growth per share over the last 5 fiscal years against the last 10. Labelled "steady" when both rates are within 3 percentage points of each other, otherwise picking up or flattening. Shown only when ten years of history exist.26% vs 19%, picking up
Profit margin 2020 to 2025 ⓘOperating margin then vs now, from reported annual statements. A falling margin after a boom year is the classic peak-earnings signal: the growth rate then leans on an inflated base.14% → 72%
2025 sits 82% above its own trend. The rate follows the median trend of the last 5 years, not that single year.
Start year 2020 (pandemic)
Growth Forecast
A lot of optimism in the price
The price assumes more growth than the company has delivered so far.
What the price assumes ⓘThis turns our valuation around: instead of asking what the share is worth, it asks what growth the current price requires. It uses the cash the company keeps after all spending (free cash flow), the same discount rate as our models, five years of growth, then slowing evenly to 2 % a year by year ten. Compared with the analysts' sales forecasts extended to the same five years (at least three analysts, for context only, it does not enter the Fair Value): within 3 percentage points counts as "in line" (amber), below that little optimism (green), above that a lot of optimism (red).
+74.8%
Yearly growth needed for the next five years to justify today's price.
What forecasts expect
n/a
No analyst forecast available.
After inflation (USA: IMF forecast 2.4% a year to 2030, 3.1% from 2016 to 2025) that is about +70.7% a year for the price.
Price, fair value, quality and upside side by side.
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Peer GroupⓘHow this stock ranks against its industry: the green marker is this stock, the band is the typical 25–75% peer range, and the tick is the median.Mortgage Finance · 92 stocks
Beats the industry median on 6/13 measures
A mixed picture versus its industry peers.
Valuation
Quality Score37 · Bottom 25%
Fair Value upside+106% · Top 25%
Profitability
Return on equity (TTM)17% · Top 25%
Return on assets2% · Above median
Net margin (TTM)40% · Below median
Operating margin (TTM)38% · Below median
Growth and dividend
Revenue growth132% · Top 25%
Balance sheet
Debt / equity9.26× · Highest 25%
Valuation Multiplesvs Mortgage Finance median · lower = cheaper
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Is Velocity Financial Llc (VEL) overvalued or undervalued?
As of Sep 23, 2026, our model estimates a fair value of $32.56 versus a price of $15.82, about +106% upside (undervalued).
What is the fair value of VEL?
Our model-based fair value for Velocity Financial Llc is $32.56 (as of Sep 23, 2026), built from audited fundamentals. The current price: $15.82.
What is the quality score of VEL?
Velocity Financial Llc has a Quality Score of 37/100. It measures business quality (profitability, growth, cash flow, balance-sheet strength, investment discipline, share issuance). Market factors such as price momentum and volatility do not enter the number; they are shown separately in the detail view.
What is the price target for Velocity Financial Llc (VEL)?
Our model-based price target is the fair value of $32.56 (as of Sep 23, 2026) from 10 valuation models. Cautious scenario $10.23, optimistic scenario $36.97. It is a calculation from audited fundamentals, not an analyst target.
What is the Velocity Financial Llc stock forecast for 2026?
Our models put fair value at $32.56, about +106% upside versus a price of $15.82 (undervalued). Cautious scenario $10.23, optimistic scenario $36.97. The calculation is refreshed regularly with new filings.
What is the revenue of Velocity Financial Llc (VEL)?
Velocity Financial Llc reported trailing-twelve-month revenue of about $272M (latest available figure, as of Sep 23, 2026).
What growth is priced into Velocity Financial Llc (VEL)?
For today's price to be fair in a discounted-cash-flow model, Velocity Financial Llc would have to grow free cash flow by +74.8 % per year for five years (discount rate 10.4 %, then slowing evenly to 2 % perpetual growth by year ten). Over the last 5 years revenue grew +33.9 % per year. As of Sep 23, 2026.
What discount rate (WACC) does the fair value of VEL use?
Our models discount Velocity Financial Llc at 10.4 %: a base by market capitalisation (small), damped by beta 0.71, country premium for USA. The same rate applies in all 26 models.
What is a reverse DCF?
A reverse DCF turns the usual calculation around. Instead of deriving a value from assumptions, it takes today's price as given and asks: what free-cash-flow growth would a company have to deliver for exactly this price to be fair? The result is not a forecast but the expectation already priced in. For Velocity Financial Llc that is +74.8 % per year a year over ten years, using the same discount rate (10.4 %) and the same formula as our fair value.
How much growth has Velocity Financial Llc (VEL) delivered so far?
Over the past 5 years revenue at Velocity Financial Llc grew +33.9 % a year. The price currently implies +74.8 % per year free-cash-flow growth a year. Comparing the two shows how much confidence is in the price: if it demands more than has been delivered, the business has to accelerate for the maths to work.
How fast is the sector of Velocity Financial Llc (VEL) growing?
The median revenue growth in the sector is +8.4 % a year. That is the yardstick for the growth priced into Velocity Financial Llc (+74.8 % per year a year): it shows whether the expectation is within the usual range or beyond it.
What is the free cash flow yield of Velocity Financial Llc (VEL)?
The free-cash-flow yield on the price is 2.96 %: that much free cash flow Velocity Financial Llc produces per unit of market value. When it exceeds the discount rate of our models (10.4 %), the business already earns more than its cost of capital demands, and the price needs little additional growth.
What is the intrinsic value of Velocity Financial Llc (VEL)?
Intrinsic value and fair value mean the same thing: what the business is worth on its numbers, independent of the share price. For Velocity Financial Llc it is $32.56 per share (as of Sep 23, 2026), against a price of $15.82. It is the blended result of 10 valuation models (cash flow, earnings, asset, dividend).
Is Velocity Financial Llc stock overvalued or undervalued in 2026?
As of Sep 23, 2026, VEL trades below its calculated fair value: price $15.82, fair value $32.56, a gap of about +106% (undervalued). The calculation is refreshed with each new quarterly report, so the verdict can change during the year.
Is fair value the same as the market price of VEL?
No. The price is what the market pays today ($15.82); the fair value is what the company's own numbers justify ($32.56). For Velocity Financial Llc the two are $16.74 per share apart. That gap is exactly why we show both numbers side by side.
How much is Velocity Financial Llc worth?
The market values Velocity Financial Llc at about $693M (market capitalisation, as of Sep 23, 2026). Per share that is $15.82; our models calculate a fair value of $32.56 per share.
What do the bullish and bearish scenarios say about VEL?
Our models span a range for Velocity Financial Llc: cautious scenario $10.23, base $32.56, optimistic $36.97 per share (as of Sep 23, 2026, price $15.82). The range comes from different growth and margin assumptions, not from analyst opinions.
What is the P/E ratio of VEL?
Velocity Financial Llc trades at a price-to-earnings ratio of 5.6 (as of Sep 23, 2026). A P/E on its own says little: it compares the price with ONE year of profit, while our fair value of $32.56 is built from several models across several years. Other multiples: P/B 1.0, P/S 2.6, EV/EBITDA 13.4.
How solid is the balance sheet of Velocity Financial Llc (VEL)?
Balance-sheet figures for Velocity Financial Llc (as of Sep 23, 2026): return on equity 17.2%, debt of 9.26 per unit of equity. They feed the Quality Score of 37/100, which measures business quality independently of the share price.
How far is VEL from its 52-week high?
Velocity Financial Llc trades at $15.82, about 24% below its 52-week high of $20.76 and at the low of $15.82 (as of Sep 23, 2026). Distance from the high says nothing about value: that is what the fair value of $32.56 is for.
Which stocks are comparable to Velocity Financial Llc?
From the same area (Financial Services) we also value Federal Home Loan Mortgage Corporation, Rocket Companies, Inc, Federal National Mortgage Association, Bajaj Housing Finance Limited, among others. Each of them has its own fair-value calculation on this site using the same models, so the comparison is like for like.
Is Velocity Financial Llc stock attractive at the current price?
The data as of Sep 23, 2026: price $15.82, calculated fair value $32.56 (+106%), Quality Score 37/100, from 10 models. Whether that fits your horizon and risk tolerance is your call. We provide the calculation, not investment advice.
How is the fair value of VEL calculated?
We run Velocity Financial Llc through 10 models from four families: discounted cash flow, earnings models, asset and balance-sheet models, and dividend models. Every model gets the same audited fundamentals; the result is the weighted average of $32.56, with the spread shown as a cautious and an optimistic scenario.
Is it still worth investing in stocks now?
The global stock market currently sits 14.1 % above its aggregate fair value. Velocity Financial Llc currently trades 106 % below its own fair value, and the market average says nothing about that. An expensive market is no reason to stay out and no reason to buy everything at once: keep a broad savings plan running, buy single stocks only with money you can do without, and hold part of your money liquid while the market is high. The full picture including sectors is on is it worth investing now.
What is the share price of Velocity Financial Llc (VEL)?
The closing price on Sep 23, 2026 was $15.82. Our model-based fair value is $32.56, about +106% upside (undervalued). We carry closing prices from our data provider, not a live tick.
What should I pay attention to with Velocity Financial Llc right now?
The large discount to fair value meets weak quality (37/100). That raises the risk this is a value trap rather than a bargain. The model range is unusually wide ($10.23 to $36.97). The outcome hinges heavily on assumptions, so read the point estimate with caution. For a financial, book-value and earnings-based methods matter more than a cash-flow DCF, which fits banks and insurers poorly.
Key figures of Velocity Financial Llc
How large is the market capitalisation of Velocity Financial Llc (VEL)?
The market capitalisation of Velocity Financial Llc is $693M. The stock-market value of the whole company: share price times number of shares. It is what the market asks for the entire business today.
What is the P/S ratio of Velocity Financial Llc (VEL)?
The price-to-sales ratio of Velocity Financial Llc is 0.83 (P/E × margin). Price to sales: market value relative to yearly revenue. Useful when profit is thin or distorted.
What are the earnings per share of Velocity Financial Llc (VEL)?
Earnings per share at Velocity Financial Llc are $2.81 (price ÷ EPS = P/E 5.6). Earnings per share over the last twelve months: total profit spread across every single share.
What is the net margin of Velocity Financial Llc (VEL)?
The net margin of Velocity Financial Llc is 14.7% (fiscal year 2025). How much of every unit of revenue ends up as profit. 10% means 10 cents of profit per dollar of sales.
What is the return on equity of Velocity Financial Llc (VEL)?
The return on equity (ROE) of Velocity Financial Llc is 17.2% (last twelve months). Profit relative to shareholders' equity, how efficiently the company works with its owners' money.
What is the EBIT return on assets of Velocity Financial Llc (VEL)?
On an EBIT basis the return on assets of Velocity Financial Llc is 2.6% (avg 5y). Operating profit (EBIT) relative to everything the company owns, as a multi-year average. It describes the business model rather than one good or bad year.
What is the operating margin of Velocity Financial Llc (VEL)?
The operating margin of Velocity Financial Llc is 38.2% (last twelve months). Profit from the core business (before interest and taxes) relative to revenue.
How fast is revenue growing at Velocity Financial Llc (VEL)?
Revenue at Velocity Financial Llc is growing +132% versus a year earlier (3y avg +42.2%). How much revenue grew versus a year earlier (YoY). The 3-year average next to it puts the single year in context.
How fast are earnings growing at Velocity Financial Llc (VEL)?
Earnings per share at Velocity Financial Llc are growing +11.3% versus a year earlier. How much earnings per share grew versus a year earlier.
How much net debt does Velocity Financial Llc (VEL) carry?
The net debt of Velocity Financial Llc is $6.4B (fiscal year 2025). Debt minus cash on hand. The note shows how many years of free cash flow could in theory pay it off.
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Broad data
Sep 23, 2026