Velocity Financial, Inc (VEL) Fair Value & Analysis
Financial Services · US · Market cap $693M
Velocity Financial, Inc
VEL · US
Fair value as of: Jul 27, 2026
From 6 valuation models · updated 14 days ago
Share price +5.4% over the past month.
Below-average quality, screening 88% undervalued on our models.
What matters now
- The large discount to fair value meets weak quality (37/100). That raises the risk this is a value trap rather than a bargain.
- The price is below even our cautious bear case ($26.09). The market is more pessimistic than our downside scenario.
- For a financial, book-value and earnings-based methods matter more than a cash-flow DCF, which fits banks and insurers poorly.
Price vs Fair Value (5 years)
White line = price, green steps = our fair value per fiscal year, dashed = 300-day average. As of Jul 27, 2026.
How to read this chart
60‑month range $7.93 – $20.76 · fair‑value band $26.09 – $37.40 · the $18.46 price screens below the $34.79 fair value. Green steps = our fair value per fiscal year (point-in-time, no hindsight). Dashed = 300-day average. As of Jul 27, 2026.
Analysis
Velocity Financial, Inc (VEL) currently trades at $18.46, while our model-based Fair Value estimate is $34.79, implying the stock looks roughly 88.5% undervalued today. The Quality Score stands at 37/100 (below-average quality), in the Financial Services sector. Bull case: trading below our estimate, it may offer upside if the fundamentals hold. Bear case: a low price can be a value trap when quality is weak or the data is thin (evidence: high), always confirm before acting.
Over the trailing twelve months, Velocity Financial, Inc generated revenue of $272M at a net margin of 40.0%. Revenue grew 132.1% year over year. It earns a return on equity of 17.2%. Net debt stands at $6.4B. Fundamentals as of Jul 27, 2026
Our scenario range runs from $26.09 (bear case) to $37.40 (bull case); at $18.46, the current price sits below that range. Bear and bull are the same models run on conservative and optimistic assumptions (margins, growth, valuation multiples), so a plausible valuation range, not a price target. The share trades about 14% below its 52-week high and 14% above its 52-week low, currently below its 200-day average. For context, the median of 10 Financial Services peers we cover trades at -25% fair-value upside, at 88%, VEL screens cheaper than that median.
Fair Value models
Each model estimates fair value its own way; the Fair Value above is the evidence-weighted blend. Evidence (0–100) measures how completely this model’s inputs are available: well-fed models carry more weight in the blend. The spread across models is intentional, each one stresses a different value driver; dividend models, for instance, come out structurally low when payout is small.
All 6 models by family
Widest divergence: Earnings-Based ($93.67) versus Asset-Based ($11.48). Highest evidence: P/E Multiple (63).
Key figures & financial health
More key figures
Figures from reported company fundamentals · as of Jul 27, 2026. TTM = trailing twelve months.
Quality Score breakdown
Of which business quality 34 · Market factors (momentum, volatility) 52
Non-valuation factor families (profitability, growth, cashflow, financial strength, momentum …), each academically grounded. Valuation itself sits in the Fair Value and is deliberately excluded here to avoid double-counting.
About the company
Velocity Financial, Inc. operates as a real estate finance company in the United States. The company originates, securitizes, and manages a portfolio of loans, which are secured by real estate, including investor loans unit residential rental properties; residential rental properties office; and loans for multi-family, mixed use, and commercial properties.
Full company description
Velocity Financial, Inc. operates as a real estate finance company in the United States. The company originates, securitizes, and manages a portfolio of loans, which are secured by real estate, including investor loans unit residential rental properties; residential rental properties office; and loans for multi-family, mixed use, and commercial properties. The company also provides warehouse and other properties. It offers its products through a network of independent mortgage brokers and direct borrower relationships. The company was founded in 2004 and is headquartered in Westlake Village, California
Company description, as reported by the company or data provider.
Revenue & earnings trend
FY2021 – FY2025 · reported fiscal years
Velocity Financial, Inc reported revenue of $714M in FY2025 versus $181M in FY2021, a compound +40.9%/yr. Reported net income was $105M in FY2025, compounding +37.7%/yr from FY2021.
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Peer Group
Mortgage Finance · 90 stocks
How this stock ranks against its industry: the green marker is this stock, the band is the typical 25–75% peer range, and the tick is the median.
Valuation Multiples vs Mortgage Finance median · lower = cheaper
Snowflake
Five quick dimensions, each 0 to 100: VALUE (fair-value potential), FUTURE (revenue growth), PAST (return on equity), HEALTH (low debt), DIVIDEND (yield). Green = this stock, grey = typical sector peer.
Insider activity: 42/100
Values & ESG
Does this company touch areas you may want to avoid? The classification is inferred from sector and industry.
ESG scores are not available for this stock yet. Values and ESG data are contextual and can differ between providers.
Similar stocks
10 more Mortgage Finance stocks, each showing price versus our Fair Value estimate (as of Jul 27, 2026).
| Stock | Price | Fair Value | vs Fair Value |
|---|---|---|---|
| Federal Home Loan Mortgage Corporation FMCCT | $13.90 | $27.80 | +100% |
| Rocket Companies, Inc RKT | $14.60 | $10.95 | -25% |
| Federal National Mortgage Association FNMAS | $9.55 | $1.93 | -80% |
| Bajaj Housing Finance Limited BAJAJHFL | ₹91.33 | ₹61.48 | -33% |
| PennyMac Financial Services, Inc PFSI | $82.35 | $125.45 | +52% |
| UWM Holdings UWMC | $2.02 | $0.2200 | -89% |
| LIC Housing Finance Limited LICHSGFIN | ₹505.00 | ₹1,010 | +100% |
| PNB Housing Finance Limited PNBHOUSING | ₹1,150 | ₹762.89 | -34% |
| Aadhar Housing Finance Limited AADHARHFC | ₹496.70 | ₹501.16 | +1% |
| Walker & Dunlop, Inc WD | $48.20 | $32.55 | -32% |
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Frequently asked questions
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How we calculate Fair Value
Each company is valued through a stack of independent intrinsic-value models (DCF variants, residual-income, multiples and more), blended into one family-balanced consensus and weighted by how much trustworthy data backs it. A separate quality layer scores the fundamentals. Every input is real reported data, nothing guessed.
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