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Vodacom Group (VODAF) fair value: what the stock is really worth
As of Oct 2, 2026: fair value of Vodacom Group $14.07, price $8.98, upside +56.7%, quality 59 out of 100. Calculated from audited financials with 26 valuation models and 37 quality factors, updated daily.
- Fair value above price? Yes
- Good quality? Yes
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VG
Some data
Oct 3, 2026
Some data
Oct 3, 2026
Vodacom Group
VODAF · USClearly undervaluedStrong Fair Value upside, but quality is only moderate.
✓Fair value $14.07 · Strongly undervalued (+56.7%)
!Quality 59/100
✓Healthy Growth (revenue 5y +11.0 %/yr)
✓Solidly profitable · 12.3% net margin (TTM)
✓Moderate debt · generates free cash flow
✓Wide moat 72/100
!Evidence only medium, so the estimate is less certain
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What runs behind every stock
26
valuation models
8 families, DCF to NCAV
37
quality factors
margins, balance sheet, cashflow, debt
6
AI factors
moat, what no ratio measures
2,000+
data points
verified, per stock, median
69 individual criteria per stock, every one traceable See the method →
Price vs Fair Value
White line = price, green steps = our fair value per fiscal year. As of Oct 3, 2026.
How to read this chart
60‑month range $2.16 – $8.98 · fair‑value band $10.56 – $17.59 · the $8.98 price screens below the $14.07 fair value. Green steps = our fair value per fiscal year (point-in-time, no hindsight). As of Oct 3, 2026.
Company profile
Vodacom Group Limited provides communications products and services in South Africa, Egypt, Kenya, and internationally. The company offers voice, messaging, converged services, broadband, data connectivity, mobile financial services, and other value-added services.
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Vodacom Group Limited provides communications products and services in South Africa, Egypt, Kenya, and internationally. The company offers voice, messaging, converged services, broadband, data connectivity, mobile financial services, and other value-added services. It also provides mobile and fixed line connectivity, Internet of Things technology, and cloud hosting and security services, as well as the SmartCitizen mobile application for e-government solutions. In addition, the company offers financial business solutions, including point of sales, business cash advance, group schemes, trading bridge, and business legal cover. Further, it provides personal financial solutions comprising the VodaPay mobile digital payments app; VodaSure, a short- and long-term insurance coverage for devices, emergency assistance, legal advice, life, and funeral; and VodaLend, a digital funding solution. The company was incorporated in 1993 and is headquartered in Midrand, South Africa. Vodacom Group Limited operates as a subsidiary of Vodafone Group Public Limited Company.
Stock analysis
Vodacom Group (VODAF) currently trades at $8.98, while our model-based Fair Value estimate is $14.07, implying the stock looks roughly 36.2% undervalued today.
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Valuation
Bull case: the Growth DCF group reads highest at a median of $16.84 per share, and 19 of the 26 models we run sit above the $8.98 price.
Bear case: the Asset-Based group reads lowest at $1.92, and 7 of the 26 models stay below the price. Evidence for this calculation is medium.
Scenario range: $10.56 (bear) to $17.59 (bull), the price of $8.98 sits below it. Bear and bull are the same models on cautious and optimistic assumptions, a range, not a price target.
Quality & growth
The Quality Score stands at 59/100 (solid quality), in the Communication Services sector.
Healthy Growth: Revenue growth appears healthy and is supported by profitability and cash-flow quality.
Vodacom Group reported revenue of 165B ZAR in FY2026 versus 103B ZAR in FY2022, a compound +12.7%/yr. Reported net income was 20.6B ZAR in FY2026, compounding +4.6%/yr from FY2022.
Key figures
Market cap $17.9B · P/E ratio 14.3 · P/S ratio 1.77 · EPS (TTM) $0.6300 · Net margin 12.4% · Return on equity 25.4% · Return on assets (EBIT) 14.4% · Operating margin 24.9%.
Competitive moat
Our AI-assisted moat analysis scores the competitive advantage at 52 out of 100 (medium confidence).
What moves the price
For context, the median of 10 Communication Services peers we cover trades at 36% fair-value upside, at 57%, VODAF screens cheaper than that median.
Fair Value models
Bear $10.56
Fair Value $14.07
Bull $17.59
Model ⓘEach model values the company its own way (discounted cash flow, earnings, assets, dividends). The fair value above is their evidence-weighted blend, not the output of a single model.
Bear ⓘBear = the cautious scenario: the same model computed with conservative anchors (lower growth, margins and valuation multiples). Together with Bull it frames a plausible valuation range, not a price target.BaseBull ⓘBull = the optimistic scenario: the same model computed with favourable anchors (higher growth, margins and valuation multiples). Together with Bear it frames a plausible valuation range, not a price target. If a model's bull case is above four times its base value, the table shows that limit with a > sign (like the overall Bull above): beyond it no assumption holds.
Evidence ⓘEvidence = how well-backed THIS model's estimate is for this stock (0–100): how complete and reliable its input data are, and how well the model fits the company. The final Fair Value is an evidence-weighted blend, so better-evidenced models count more. Green ≥70, amber 50–69, grey below 50.
Highest evidence
FCF DCF
$11.89
$19.64
$31.70
79
Growth DCF
$12.07
$18.83
$28.67
78
Owner Earnings
$8.82
$14.74
$23.95
75
All 26 models by family
DCF Models
FCF DCF
$11.89
$19.64
$31.70
79
Owner Earnings
$8.82
$14.74
$23.95
75
5Y Revenue Exit
$10.13
$16.82
$25.39
72
5Y EBITDA Exit
$13.76
$23.72
$35.46
74
5Y P/E Exit
$9.53
$15.68
$22.16
70
10Y Revenue Exit
$10.30
$16.62
$25.18
66
10Y EBITDA Exit
$12.97
$21.44
$32.97
67
10Y P/E Exit
$10.25
$15.81
$22.68
63
Earnings-Based
Graham-Dodd
$4.35
$14.55
$19.48
64
Lynch FV
$3.30
$4.72
$6.14
61
PEG = 1.0
$3.30
$4.72
$6.14
57
EPV
$7.40
$8.83
$10.08
74
Dividend Discount
Gordon GGM
$3.68
$7.66
$12.15
66
DDM Multi-Stage
$3.68
$6.30
$8.04
66
Multiples
P/E Multiple
$10.56
$14.07
$17.59
63
P/S Multiple
$8.16
$10.88
$13.59
58
P/B Multiple
$7.53
$10.04
$12.55
55
EV/EBIT
$13.50
$18.39
$23.27
66
EV/EBITDA
$16.61
$22.53
$28.45
67
EV/Revenue
$9.65
$14.28
$18.92
53
Asset-Based
NCAV (Graham)
$1.43
$1.92
$2.87
54
Growth DCF
Growth DCF
$12.07
$18.83
$28.67
78
Rev-Margin DCF
$10.13
$16.84
$24.72
72
Economic Profit
Residual Income
$3.89
$4.90
$7.81
74
ROIC Compounder
$8.09
$10.60
$13.54
72
Growth Earnings
Growth-Adj P/E
$8.91
$12.72
$16.54
67
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Set up alert →Quality Score breakdown
Overall quality
59/100
Of which business quality 56 · Market factors (momentum, volatility) 71
Profitability
54
Margins and returns on capital today
Quality Growth
40
Are margins and returns improving?
Cashflow
78
Earnings quality: real cash, not paper profit
Fin. Strength
39
Balance sheet, leverage, solvency risk
Investment
63
Disciplined investing over empire-building
Low Volatility
50
Calm price path (market factor)
Momentum
69
Price trend over the last 3–12 months (market factor)
52W Momentum
100
Distance to the 52-week high (market factor)
Net Issuance
62
Share count: buybacks or dilution?
Revenue & earnings trend
Growth Quality ⓘGrowth is valuable only when reinvestment earns attractive returns (Aswath Damodaran): sustainable growth depends on return on capital, reinvestment and efficiency. Basis: total company revenue over the periods shown on the cards (3Y/5Y/all years), not per share, so a merger can show up as a growth jump; per-share earnings growth is in the value-creation card.
93/100
Revenue growth appears healthy and is supported by profitability and cash-flow quality.
Revenue growth 1 year
+8.7%
Revenue growth 3 years ⓘMeasures the company's TOTAL revenue from reported annual statements: compound average growth per year (CAGR) from the fiscal year 3, 5 or N years back to the most recent comparable fiscal year. Not per share: buybacks do not change this number, and a merger can appear as a growth jump. Per-share growth (which does include buybacks) is in the value-creation card.
+11.6%
Revenue growth 5 years ⓘMeasures the company's TOTAL revenue from reported annual statements: compound average growth per year (CAGR) from the fiscal year 3, 5 or N years back to the most recent comparable fiscal year. Not per share: buybacks do not change this number, and a merger can appear as a growth jump. Per-share growth (which does include buybacks) is in the value-creation card.
+11.0%
Start year 2021 (pandemic). Over 10 years: +7.5% a year
Revenue growth 22 years ⓘMeasures the company's TOTAL revenue from reported annual statements: compound average growth per year (CAGR) from the fiscal year 3, 5 or N years back to the most recent comparable fiscal year. Not per share: buybacks do not change this number, and a merger can appear as a growth jump. Per-share growth (which does include buybacks) is in the value-creation card.
+9.4%
’15
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’17
’18
’19
’20
’21
’22
’23
’24
’25
’26
What shareholders gained per year (last 5 years), in ZAR ⓘWhat the business itself delivers per year: earnings growth per share plus the dividend yield. This is what you get IF the market keeps valuing the stock the same way: it contains no assumption about the market changing its mind. Computed per share, so buybacks count and a merger does not pass as growth. For a company that pays no dividend it is pure earnings growth per share. Period: earnings growth per share as CAGR over the last 5 reported fiscal years (annual statements), plus the current dividend yield. The start value is the median of the three years around the start, so a single crisis year (a pandemic or a write-down) does not distort the rate. Measured in ZAR: this currency has depreciated against the euro and dollar over the long run, so part of the nominal rate is currency erosion that never reaches a EUR/USD investor.
+1.6%
Earnings growth per share plus dividend.
Earnings per share, growth per year+1.6%
Dividend (yield on the price)0.0%
Pace: 5 vs 10 years ⓘTwo data points, not a trend model: earnings growth per share over the last 5 fiscal years against the last 10. Labelled "steady" when both rates are within 3 percentage points of each other, otherwise picking up or flattening. Shown only when ten years of history exist.1.6% vs 1.6%, steady
Profit margin 2021 to 2026 ⓘOperating margin then vs now, from reported annual statements. A falling margin after a boom year is the classic peak-earnings signal: the growth rate then leans on an inflated base.28% → 24%
Start year 2021 (pandemic)
Growth Forecast
Little optimism in the price
The price assumes less growth than the company has delivered so far and less than analysts expect.
What the price assumes ⓘThis turns our valuation around: instead of asking what the share is worth, it asks what growth the current price requires. It uses the cash the company keeps after all spending (free cash flow), the same discount rate as our models, five years of growth, then slowing evenly to 2 % a year by year ten. Compared with the analysts' sales forecasts extended to the same five years (at least three analysts, for context only, it does not enter the Fair Value): within 3 percentage points counts as "in line" (amber), below that little optimism (green), above that a lot of optimism (red).
−5.1%
Yearly growth needed for the next five years to justify today's price.
What forecasts expect ⓘAnalysts publish sales forecasts for the next two fiscal years. For the years after that, growth slows evenly to 2 % a year by year ten (2 % is the long-run rate our models use). Projected years are marked as such.
+13.5%
Yearly sales growth analysts expect, extended to five years.
After inflation (figures in ZAR, South Africa: IMF forecast 3.3% a year to 2030, 4.9% from 2016 to 2025) that is about −8.1% a year for the price and +9.9% for the forecasts.
Forecast 2027 (sales)+24.9%
Forecast 2028 (sales)+12.8%
Projected 2029 (sales)+11.4%
Projected 2030 (sales)+10.1%
Projected 2031 (sales)+8.7%
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Peer GroupⓘHow this stock ranks against its industry: the green marker is this stock, the band is the typical 25–75% peer range, and the tick is the median.Telecom Services · 237 stocks
Beats the industry median on 11/14 measures
Overall it ranks above its industry peers.
Valuation Multiplesvs Telecom Services median · lower = cheaper
Context: sector, industry, market
- Is the Communication Services sector expensive or cheap?
- P/E, EV/EBITDA and margins by industry (reference tables)
- Undervalued stocks: Communication Services
- Undervalued stocks: US Stocks
- Valuation of the USA market
Values & ESG
Does this company touch areas you may want to avoid? The classification is inferred from sector and industry.
None of the checked exposures detected
Similar stocks
10 more Telecom Services stocks, each showing price versus our Fair Value estimate.
| Stock | Price | Fair Value | vs Fair Value |
|---|---|---|---|
| China Mobile Limited 80941 | HK$67.30 | HK$114.85 | +71% |
| Verizon Communications Inc VZ | $45.87 | $70.27 | +53% |
| T-Mobile US, Inc TMUS | $162.98 | $272.88 | +67% |
| AT&T Inc T | $24.48 | $51.11 | +109% |
| Bharti Airtel Limited BHARTIARTL | ₹1,741 | ₹1,883 | +8% |
| China Telecom Corporation 601728 | ¥6.16 | ¥8.36 | +36% |
| Saudi Telecom Company 7010 | 43.22 SAR | 41.80 SAR | −3% |
| Singapore Telecommunications Limited Z74 | 4.28 SGD | 2.16 SGD | −50% |
| Swisscom AG SCMN | CHF 639.00 | CHF 505.18 | −21% |
| Telstra Group TLS | A$4.83 | A$4.43 | −8% |
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Frequently asked questions
Is Vodacom Group (VODAF) overvalued or undervalued?
As of Oct 3, 2026, our model estimates a fair value of $14.07 versus a price of $8.98, about +57% upside (undervalued).
What is the fair value of VODAF?
Our model-based fair value for Vodacom Group is $14.07 (as of Oct 3, 2026), built from audited fundamentals. The current price: $8.98.
What is the quality score of VODAF?
Vodacom Group has a Quality Score of 59/100. It measures business quality (profitability, growth, cash flow, balance-sheet strength, investment discipline, share issuance). Market factors such as price momentum and volatility do not enter the number; they are shown separately in the detail view.
What is the price target for Vodacom Group (VODAF)?
Our model-based price target is the fair value of $14.07 (as of Oct 3, 2026) from 26 valuation models. Cautious scenario $10.56, optimistic scenario $17.59. It is a calculation from audited fundamentals, not an analyst target.
What is the Vodacom Group stock forecast for 2026?
Our models put fair value at $14.07, about +57% upside versus a price of $8.98 (undervalued). Cautious scenario $10.56, optimistic scenario $17.59. The calculation is refreshed regularly with new filings.
What is the revenue of Vodacom Group (VODAF)?
Vodacom Group reported trailing-twelve-month revenue of about 168B ZAR (latest available figure, as of Oct 3, 2026).
What growth is priced into Vodacom Group (VODAF)?
For today's price to be fair in a discounted-cash-flow model, Vodacom Group would have to grow free cash flow by -5.1 % per year for five years (discount rate 8.1 %, then slowing evenly to 2 % perpetual growth by year ten). Over the last 5 years revenue grew +11.0 % per year. As of Oct 3, 2026.
What discount rate (WACC) does the fair value of VODAF use?
Our models discount Vodacom Group at 8.1 %: a base by market capitalisation (large), damped by beta 0.37, country premium for USA. The same rate applies in all 26 models.
What is a reverse DCF?
A reverse DCF turns the usual calculation around. Instead of deriving a value from assumptions, it takes today's price as given and asks: what free-cash-flow growth would a company have to deliver for exactly this price to be fair? The result is not a forecast but the expectation already priced in. For Vodacom Group that is -5.1 % per year a year over ten years, using the same discount rate (8.1 %) and the same formula as our fair value.
How much growth has Vodacom Group (VODAF) delivered so far?
Over the past 5 years revenue at Vodacom Group grew +11.0 % a year. The price currently implies -5.1 % per year free-cash-flow growth a year. Comparing the two shows how much confidence is in the price: if it demands more than has been delivered, the business has to accelerate for the maths to work.
How fast is the sector of Vodacom Group (VODAF) growing?
The median revenue growth in the sector is +3.1 % a year. That is the yardstick for the growth priced into Vodacom Group (-5.1 % per year a year): it shows whether the expectation is within the usual range or beyond it.
What is the free cash flow yield of Vodacom Group (VODAF)?
The free-cash-flow yield on the price is 10.15 %: that much free cash flow Vodacom Group produces per unit of market value. When it exceeds the discount rate of our models (8.1 %), the business already earns more than its cost of capital demands, and the price needs little additional growth.
What is the intrinsic value of Vodacom Group (VODAF)?
Intrinsic value and fair value mean the same thing: what the business is worth on its numbers, independent of the share price. For Vodacom Group it is $14.07 per share (as of Oct 3, 2026), against a price of $8.98. It is the blended result of 26 valuation models (cash flow, earnings, asset, dividend).
Is Vodacom Group stock overvalued or undervalued in 2026?
As of Oct 3, 2026, VODAF trades below its calculated fair value: price $8.98, fair value $14.07, a gap of about +57% (undervalued). The calculation is refreshed with each new quarterly report, so the verdict can change during the year.
Is fair value the same as the market price of VODAF?
No. The price is what the market pays today ($8.98); the fair value is what the company's own numbers justify ($14.07). For Vodacom Group the two are $5.09 per share apart. That gap is exactly why we show both numbers side by side.
How much is Vodacom Group worth?
The market values Vodacom Group at about $17.9B (market capitalisation, as of Oct 3, 2026). Per share that is $8.98; our models calculate a fair value of $14.07 per share.
What do the bullish and bearish scenarios say about VODAF?
Our models span a range for Vodacom Group: cautious scenario $10.56, base $14.07, optimistic $17.59 per share (as of Oct 3, 2026, price $8.98). The range comes from different growth and margin assumptions, not from analyst opinions.
What is the P/E ratio of VODAF?
Vodacom Group trades at a price-to-earnings ratio of 14.3 (as of Oct 3, 2026). A P/E on its own says little: it compares the price with ONE year of profit, while our fair value of $14.07 is built from several models across several years. Other multiples: P/B 3.0, P/S 1.7, EV/EBITDA 5.8.
How solid is the balance sheet of Vodacom Group (VODAF)?
Balance-sheet figures for Vodacom Group (as of Oct 3, 2026): return on equity 25.4%, debt of 0.74 per unit of equity. They feed the Quality Score of 59/100, which measures business quality independently of the share price.
Which stocks are comparable to Vodacom Group?
From the same area (Communication Services) we also value China Mobile Limited, Verizon Communications Inc, T-Mobile US, Inc, AT&T Inc, among others. Each of them has its own fair-value calculation on this site using the same models, so the comparison is like for like.
Is Vodacom Group stock attractive at the current price?
The data as of Oct 3, 2026: price $8.98, calculated fair value $14.07 (+57%), Quality Score 59/100, from 26 models. Whether that fits your horizon and risk tolerance is your call. We provide the calculation, not investment advice.
How is the fair value of VODAF calculated?
We run Vodacom Group through 26 models from four families: discounted cash flow, earnings models, asset and balance-sheet models, and dividend models. Every model gets the same audited fundamentals; the result is the weighted average of $14.07, with the spread shown as a cautious and an optimistic scenario.
Is it still worth investing in stocks now?
The global stock market currently sits 14.5 % above its aggregate fair value. Vodacom Group currently trades 36 % below its own fair value, and the market average says nothing about that. An expensive market is no reason to stay out and no reason to buy everything at once: keep a broad savings plan running, buy single stocks only with money you can do without, and hold part of your money liquid while the market is high. The full picture including sectors is on is it worth investing now.
What is the share price of Vodacom Group (VODAF)?
The closing price on Oct 2, 2026 was $8.98. Our model-based fair value is $14.07, about +57% upside (undervalued). We carry closing prices from our data provider, not a live tick.
What should I pay attention to with Vodacom Group right now?
The price is below even our cautious bear case ($10.56). The market is more pessimistic than our downside scenario. Solid quality (59/100) at a price below fair value, the discount is the argument here, not the business quality.
Where does the earnings growth of Vodacom Group (VODAF) come from?
Earnings per share at Vodacom Group grew +0.3 % a year from 2015 to 2026. Broken into its drivers: revenue per share +4.4 %, EBIT margin −1.1 %, tax rate −0.6 %, residual (interest, one-offs) −2.3 %. The four rates multiply to the earnings growth rate, they do not add up. Start and end are three-year averages so a single exceptional year does not distort the result.
Key figures of Vodacom Group
How large is the market capitalisation of Vodacom Group (VODAF)?
The market capitalisation of Vodacom Group is $17.9B. The stock-market value of the whole company: share price times number of shares. It is what the market asks for the entire business today.
What is the P/S ratio of Vodacom Group (VODAF)?
The price-to-sales ratio of Vodacom Group is 1.77 (P/E × margin). Price to sales: market value relative to yearly revenue. Useful when profit is thin or distorted.
What are the earnings per share of Vodacom Group (VODAF)?
Earnings per share at Vodacom Group are $0.6300 (price ÷ EPS = P/E 14.3). Earnings per share over the last twelve months: total profit spread across every single share.
What is the net margin of Vodacom Group (VODAF)?
The net margin of Vodacom Group is 12.4% (fiscal year 2026). How much of every unit of revenue ends up as profit. 10% means 10 cents of profit per dollar of sales.
What is the return on equity of Vodacom Group (VODAF)?
The return on equity (ROE) of Vodacom Group is 25.4% (last twelve months). Profit relative to shareholders' equity, how efficiently the company works with its owners' money.
What is the EBIT return on assets of Vodacom Group (VODAF)?
On an EBIT basis the return on assets of Vodacom Group is 14.4% (avg 5y). Operating profit (EBIT) relative to everything the company owns, as a multi-year average. It describes the business model rather than one good or bad year.
What is the operating margin of Vodacom Group (VODAF)?
The operating margin of Vodacom Group is 24.9% (last twelve months). Profit from the core business (before interest and taxes) relative to revenue.
How fast is revenue growing at Vodacom Group (VODAF)?
Revenue at Vodacom Group is growing +9.4% versus a year earlier (3y avg +11.6%). How much revenue grew versus a year earlier (YoY). The 3-year average next to it puts the single year in context.
How fast are earnings growing at Vodacom Group (VODAF)?
Earnings per share at Vodacom Group are growing +17.0% versus a year earlier. How much earnings per share grew versus a year earlier.
How much net debt does Vodacom Group (VODAF) carry?
The net debt of Vodacom Group is 62.8B ZAR (fiscal year 2026, ≈ 2.1 yrs of FCF). Debt minus cash on hand. The note shows how many years of free cash flow could in theory pay it off.
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