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Zeo Energy Corp. (ZEO) fair value: what the stock is really worth

As of Sep 23, 2026: fair value of Zeo Energy Corp. $0.16, price $0.40, upside -59.7%, quality 44 out of 100. Calculated from audited financials with 26 valuation models and 37 quality factors, updated daily.

  1. Fair value above price? No
  2. Good quality? No
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Technology · US · ISIN US98944F1093

ZE Zeo Energy Corp. logo Thin data Sep 23, 2026

Zeo Energy Corp.

ZEO · US

Weakest SetupStrongly overvalued and low quality.

!Fair value $0.1600 · Strongly overvalued (−60%)
!Quality 44/100
!Weak Growth (revenue 3y −6.3 %/yr)
!Loss-making · -15.1% net margin (TTM)
!Negative equity (buybacks among others) · negative free cash flow
!Trails peers (2/7)
!Narrow moat 8/100
!Evidence only low, so the estimate is less certain
!Weak on dividend: 5 out of 100
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What runs behind every stock

26 valuation models 8 families, DCF to NCAV 37 quality factors margins, balance sheet, cashflow, debt 6 AI factors moat, what no ratio measures 2,000+ data points verified, per stock, median

69 individual criteria per stock, every one traceable See the method →

Price vs Fair Value

$11.52 $0.2106 Fair Value $0.1600 Dec 2021 Sep 2026

White line = price, green steps = our fair value per fiscal year, dashed = 300-day average. As of Sep 23, 2026.

How to read this chart

57‑month range $0.2106 – $11.52 · fair‑value band $0.1200 – $0.2100 · the $0.3967 price screens above the $0.1600 fair value. Green steps = our fair value per fiscal year (point-in-time, no hindsight). Dashed = 300-day average. As of Sep 23, 2026.

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Company profile

Zeo Energy Corp. engages in the provision of residential solar energy systems in the United States. The company engages in the design, procurement, sale, installation, and maintenance of residential solar energy systems for homeowners to supplement electricity required to power their homes.

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Zeo Energy Corp. engages in the provision of residential solar energy systems in the United States. The company engages in the design, procurement, sale, installation, and maintenance of residential solar energy systems for homeowners to supplement electricity required to power their homes. It also provides roofing and insulation services, energy appliances, and battery storage systems for the residential market. The company markets its products and services to customers directly through in-home visits carried out by its internal sales agents, as well as indirectly through external sales dealers. Zeo Energy Corp. was founded in 2005 and is headquartered in New Port Richey, Florida.

Stock analysis

Zeo Energy Corp. (ZEO) currently trades at $0.3967, while our model-based Fair Value estimate is $0.1600, implying the stock looks roughly 148.0% overvalued today.

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Valuation

Bull case: the DCF Models group reads highest at a median of $0.2600 per share, and 0 of the 3 models we run sit above the $0.3967 price.

Bear case: the Dividend Discount group reads lowest at $0.0200, and 3 of the 3 models stay below the price. Evidence for this calculation is low.

Scenario range: $0.1200 (bear) to $0.2100 (bull), the price of $0.3967 sits above it. Bear and bull are the same models on cautious and optimistic assumptions, a range, not a price target.

Quality & growth

The Quality Score stands at 44/100 (below-average quality), in the Technology sector.

Weak Growth: Revenue growth is weak: less than 2 % a year.

Zeo Energy Corp. reported revenue of $73.2M in FY2025 versus $24.6M in FY2021, a compound +31.4%/yr. Reported net income was −$2.7M in FY2025.

Key figures

Market cap $86.0M · P/S ratio 1.17 · EPS (TTM) $−0.1900 · Dividend yield 0.3% · Net margin −3.6% · Return on equity −29.3% · Return on assets (EBIT) 4.3% · Operating margin −29.8%.

Competitive moat

Our AI-assisted moat analysis scores the competitive advantage at 32 out of 100 (low confidence).

What moves the price

The share trades about 80% below its 52-week high and 88% above its 52-week low, currently below its 200-day average.

For context, the median of 10 Technology peers we cover trades at 10% fair-value upside, at −60%, ZEO screens richer than that median.

Fair Value models

Bear $0.1200 Fair Value $0.1600 Bull $0.2100
Model ⓘEach model values the company its own way (discounted cash flow, earnings, assets, dividends). The fair value above is their evidence-weighted blend, not the output of a single model. Bear ⓘBear = the cautious scenario: the same model computed with conservative anchors (lower growth, margins and valuation multiples). Together with Bull it frames a plausible valuation range, not a price target.BaseBull ⓘBull = the optimistic scenario: the same model computed with favourable anchors (higher growth, margins and valuation multiples). Together with Bear it frames a plausible valuation range, not a price target. Evidence ⓘEvidence = how well-backed THIS model's estimate is for this stock (0–100): how complete and reliable its input data are, and how well the model fits the company. The final Fair Value is an evidence-weighted blend, so better-evidenced models count more. Green ≥70, amber 50–69, grey below 50.
Highest evidence
Owner Earnings $0.1900 $0.2600 $0.3400 74
DDM Multi-Stage $0.0100 $0.0200 $0.0200 65
Gordon GGM $0.0100 $0.0200 $0.0300 64
All 3 models by family
DCF Models
Owner Earnings $0.1900 $0.2600 $0.3400 74
Dividend Discount
Gordon GGM $0.0100 $0.0200 $0.0300 64
DDM Multi-Stage $0.0100 $0.0200 $0.0200 65

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Quality Score breakdown

Overall quality 44/100

Of which business quality 44 · Market factors (momentum, volatility) 15

Profitability 48
Margins and returns on capital today
Quality Growth 33
Are margins and returns improving?
Cashflow 33
Earnings quality: real cash, not paper profit
Fin. Strength 11
Balance sheet, leverage, solvency risk
Investment 67
Disciplined investing over empire-building
Low Volatility 45
Calm price path (market factor)
Momentum 0
Price trend over the last 3–12 months (market factor)
52W Momentum 5
Distance to the 52-week high (market factor)
Net Issuance 100
Share count: buybacks or dilution?

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Revenue & earnings trend

Growth Quality ⓘGrowth is valuable only when reinvestment earns attractive returns (Aswath Damodaran): sustainable growth depends on return on capital, reinvestment and efficiency. Basis: total company revenue over the periods shown on the cards (3Y/5Y/all years), not per share, so a merger can show up as a growth jump; per-share earnings growth is in the value-creation card. 6/100
Revenue growth is weak: less than 2 % a year.
Revenue growth 1 year
+0.0%
Revenue growth 3 years ⓘMeasures the company's TOTAL revenue from reported annual statements: compound average growth per year (CAGR) from the fiscal year 3, 5 or N years back to the most recent comparable fiscal year. Not per share: buybacks do not change this number, and a merger can appear as a growth jump. Per-share growth (which does include buybacks) is in the value-creation card.
−6.3%
Profit margin (trend) ⓘOperating margin then vs now, from reported annual statements. A falling margin after a boom year is the classic peak-earnings signal: the growth rate then leans on an inflated base.
28.7% (2021) → −14.8% (2025)
What shareholders gained per year ⓘWe only publish this rate when it is defensible. Reason: fiscal 2025 is a loss year, no rate is defined from a loss
not computed

ZEO screens 148% overvalued. Compare with First Solar, Inc →

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Peer GroupⓘHow this stock ranks against its industry: the green marker is this stock, the band is the typical 25–75% peer range, and the tick is the median.Solar · 113 stocks

Beats the industry median on 2/7 measures
Overall it trails its industry peers.
Valuation
Quality Score 44 · Above median
Fair Value upside −60% · Bottom 25%
Profitability
Return on equity (TTM) Negative equity ⓘThe company's equity is below zero, for example after large share buybacks. A ratio to negative equity has no meaning, so we show no number here and do not rank it against the peer group.
Return on assets −13% · Bottom 25%
Net margin (TTM) −15% · Below median
Operating margin (TTM) −30% · Bottom 25%
Growth and dividend
Revenue growth 50% · Top 25%
Dividend yield (TTM) 0.3% · Bottom 25%
Balance sheet
Debt / equity Negative equity ⓘThe company's equity is below zero, for example after large share buybacks. A ratio to negative equity has no meaning, so we show no number here and do not rank it against the peer group.

Valuation Multiplesvs Solar median · lower = cheaper

P/B Negative equity ⓘThe company's equity is below zero, for example after large share buybacks. A ratio to negative equity has no meaning, so we show no number here and do not rank it against the peer group.

Strength profile in five axes (Snowflake)

VALUEFUTUREPASTHEALTHDIVIDEND
This stock
VALUEFUTUREPASTHEALTHDIVIDEND
Sector peers
VALUE (fair-value potential)0 · sector 23
FUTURE (revenue growth)100 · sector 0
PAST (return on equity)0 · sector 0
HEALTH (low debt)0 · sector 81
DIVIDEND (yield)5 · sector 30

VALUE 0: the price sits above our fair-value range.

PAST 0: with negative equity (buybacks among others) return on equity is not meaningfully computable.

Context: sector, industry, market

Values & ESG

Does this company touch areas you may want to avoid? The classification is inferred from sector and industry.

None of the checked exposures detected

Similar stocks

10 more Solar stocks, each showing price versus our Fair Value estimate.

Stock Price Fair Value vs Fair Value
First Solar, Inc FSLR $191.97 $392.12 +104%
Nextpower Inc NXT $82.52 $90.77 +10%
Tongwei Co 600438 ¥11.58 ¥12.13 +5%
Waaree Energies Limited WAAREEENER ₹2,512 ₹2,709 +8%
Jinko Solar Co 688223 ¥3.85 ¥6.47 +68%
Enphase Energy, Inc ENPH $34.42 $24.15 −30%
CSI Solar Co 688472 ¥8.53 ¥4.82 −43%
Hengdian Group 002056 ¥20.33 ¥31.86 +57%
Premier Energies Limited PREMIERENE ₹915.00 ₹648.94 −29%
Trina Solar Co 688599 ¥11.20 ¥31.67 +183%

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Zeo Energy Corp. · Fair Value
$0.1600 −148%Fair Value
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Cite: Fair Value Calculator (2026). "Zeo Energy Corp. Fair Value". https://www.fairvalue-calculator.com/stock/ZEO

Frequently asked questions

Is Zeo Energy Corp. (ZEO) overvalued or undervalued?
As of Sep 23, 2026, our model estimates a fair value of $0.1600 versus a price of $0.3967, about −60% upside (overvalued).
What is the fair value of ZEO?
Our model-based fair value for Zeo Energy Corp. is $0.1600 (as of Sep 23, 2026), built from audited fundamentals. The current price: $0.3967.
What is the quality score of ZEO?
Zeo Energy Corp. has a Quality Score of 44/100. It measures business quality (profitability, growth, cash flow, balance-sheet strength, investment discipline, share issuance). Market factors such as price momentum and volatility do not enter the number; they are shown separately in the detail view.
What is the price target for Zeo Energy Corp. (ZEO)?
Our model-based price target is the fair value of $0.1600 (as of Sep 23, 2026) from 3 valuation models. Cautious scenario $0.1200, optimistic scenario $0.2100. It is a calculation from audited fundamentals, not an analyst target.
What is the Zeo Energy Corp. stock forecast for 2026?
Our models put fair value at $0.1600, about −60% upside versus a price of $0.3967 (overvalued). Cautious scenario $0.1200, optimistic scenario $0.2100. The calculation is refreshed regularly with new filings.
What is the revenue of Zeo Energy Corp. (ZEO)?
Zeo Energy Corp. reported trailing-twelve-month revenue of about $73.8M (latest available figure, as of Sep 23, 2026).
Does Zeo Energy Corp. pay a dividend?
Zeo Energy Corp. currently shows a dividend yield of about 0.27% relative to its recent price (as of Sep 23, 2026).
What is the intrinsic value of Zeo Energy Corp. (ZEO)?
Intrinsic value and fair value mean the same thing: what the business is worth on its numbers, independent of the share price. For Zeo Energy Corp. it is $0.1600 per share (as of Sep 23, 2026), against a price of $0.3967. It is the blended result of 3 valuation models (cash flow, earnings, asset, dividend).
Is Zeo Energy Corp. stock overvalued or undervalued in 2026?
As of Sep 23, 2026, ZEO trades above its calculated fair value: price $0.3967, fair value $0.1600, a gap of about −60% (overvalued). The calculation is refreshed with each new quarterly report, so the verdict can change during the year.
Is fair value the same as the market price of ZEO?
No. The price is what the market pays today ($0.3967); the fair value is what the company's own numbers justify ($0.1600). For Zeo Energy Corp. the two are $0.2367 per share apart. That gap is exactly why we show both numbers side by side.
How much is Zeo Energy Corp. worth?
The market values Zeo Energy Corp. at about $86.0M (market capitalisation, as of Sep 23, 2026). Per share that is $0.3967; our models calculate a fair value of $0.1600 per share.
What do the bullish and bearish scenarios say about ZEO?
Our models span a range for Zeo Energy Corp.: cautious scenario $0.1200, base $0.1600, optimistic $0.2100 per share (as of Sep 23, 2026, price $0.3967). The range comes from different growth and margin assumptions, not from analyst opinions.
How solid is the balance sheet of Zeo Energy Corp. (ZEO)?
Balance-sheet figures for Zeo Energy Corp. (as of Sep 23, 2026): negative equity, so no return on equity and no debt-to-equity ratio. They feed the Quality Score of 44/100, which measures business quality independently of the share price.
How far is ZEO from its 52-week high?
Zeo Energy Corp. trades at $0.3967, about 80% below its 52-week high of $1.99 and 88% above the low of $0.2106 (as of Sep 23, 2026). Distance from the high says nothing about value: that is what the fair value of $0.1600 is for.
Which stocks are comparable to Zeo Energy Corp.?
From the same area (Technology) we also value First Solar, Inc, Nextpower Inc, Tongwei Co, Waaree Energies Limited, among others. Each of them has its own fair-value calculation on this site using the same models, so the comparison is like for like.
Is Zeo Energy Corp. stock attractive at the current price?
The data as of Sep 23, 2026: price $0.3967, calculated fair value $0.1600 (−60%), Quality Score 44/100, from 3 models. Whether that fits your horizon and risk tolerance is your call. We provide the calculation, not investment advice.
How is the fair value of ZEO calculated?
We run Zeo Energy Corp. through 3 models from four families: discounted cash flow, earnings models, asset and balance-sheet models, and dividend models. Every model gets the same audited fundamentals; the result is the weighted average of $0.1600, with the spread shown as a cautious and an optimistic scenario.
Is it still worth investing in stocks now?
The global stock market currently sits 13.0 % above its aggregate fair value. Zeo Energy Corp. itself currently trades above fair value. An expensive market is no reason to stay out and no reason to buy everything at once: keep a broad savings plan running, buy single stocks only with money you can do without, and hold part of your money liquid while the market is high. The full picture including sectors is on is it worth investing now.
What is the share price of Zeo Energy Corp. (ZEO)?
The closing price on Sep 23, 2026 was $0.3967. Our model-based fair value is $0.1600, about −60% upside (overvalued). We carry closing prices from our data provider, not a live tick.
What should I pay attention to with Zeo Energy Corp. right now?
The price sits above even our optimistic bull case ($0.2100). The favourable scenario is already priced in. Weak quality (44/100) and above fair value at the same time, the margin of safety is missing on both counts. The large gap to fair value rests on thin data (low evidence): fewer applicable models and a shorter history. Read it with extra caution.

Key figures of Zeo Energy Corp.

How large is the market capitalisation of Zeo Energy Corp. (ZEO)?
The market capitalisation of Zeo Energy Corp. is $86.0M. The stock-market value of the whole company: share price times number of shares. It is what the market asks for the entire business today.
What is the P/S ratio of Zeo Energy Corp. (ZEO)?
The price-to-sales ratio of Zeo Energy Corp. is 1.17 (last twelve months). Price to sales: market value relative to yearly revenue. Useful when profit is thin or distorted.
What are the earnings per share of Zeo Energy Corp. (ZEO)?
Earnings per share at Zeo Energy Corp. are $−0.1900. Earnings per share over the last twelve months: total profit spread across every single share.
What is the dividend yield of Zeo Energy Corp. (ZEO)?
The dividend yield of Zeo Energy Corp. is 0.3%. Yearly dividend relative to the share price. 3% pays 3 per 100 invested. Below: how much of profit is used for it.
What is the net margin of Zeo Energy Corp. (ZEO)?
The net margin of Zeo Energy Corp. is −3.6% (fiscal year 2025). How much of every unit of revenue ends up as profit. 10% means 10 cents of profit per dollar of sales.
What is the return on equity of Zeo Energy Corp. (ZEO)?
The return on equity (ROE) of Zeo Energy Corp. is −29.3% (last twelve months). Profit relative to shareholders' equity, how efficiently the company works with its owners' money.
What is the EBIT return on assets of Zeo Energy Corp. (ZEO)?
On an EBIT basis the return on assets of Zeo Energy Corp. is 4.3% (avg 5y). Operating profit (EBIT) relative to everything the company owns, as a multi-year average. It describes the business model rather than one good or bad year.
What is the operating margin of Zeo Energy Corp. (ZEO)?
The operating margin of Zeo Energy Corp. is −29.8% (last twelve months). Profit from the core business (before interest and taxes) relative to revenue.
How fast is revenue growing at Zeo Energy Corp. (ZEO)?
Revenue at Zeo Energy Corp. is growing +50.1% versus a year earlier (3y avg −6.3%). How much revenue grew versus a year earlier (YoY). The 3-year average next to it puts the single year in context.
How fast are earnings growing at Zeo Energy Corp. (ZEO)?
Earnings per share at Zeo Energy Corp. are growing −95.8% versus a year earlier. How much earnings per share grew versus a year earlier.
How much free cash flow does Zeo Energy Corp. (ZEO) generate?
The free cash flow of Zeo Energy Corp. is −$9.1M (fiscal year 2025). The cash truly left after running and investing in the business, this is what pays dividends and buybacks.
How much net cash does Zeo Energy Corp. (ZEO) hold?
Zeo Energy Corp. holds more cash than debt, $544K net (fiscal year 2025). The company holds more cash than debt, a safety cushion.
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