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ZhongAn Online P & C Insurance Co (ZZHGY) fair value: what the stock is really worth
As of Sep 25, 2026: fair value of ZhongAn Online P & C Insurance Co $1.71, price $1.14, upside +50.0%, quality 46 out of 100. Calculated from audited financials with 26 valuation models and 37 quality factors, updated daily.
- Fair value above price? Yes
- Good quality? No
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Some data
Sep 24, 2026
Some data
Sep 24, 2026
ZhongAn Online P & C Insurance Co
ZZHGY · USCheap, value-trap riskThe stock looks deeply undervalued, but low quality raises value-trap risk.
✓Fair value $1.71 · Strongly undervalued (+50.0%)
!Quality 46/100
✓Healthy Growth (revenue 5y +13.6 %/yr)
!Thin margins · 3.1% net margin (TTM)
✓Low debt · generates free cash flow
!Narrow moat 30/100
!Evidence only medium, so the estimate is less certain
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What runs behind every stock
26
valuation models
8 families, DCF to NCAV
37
quality factors
margins, balance sheet, cashflow, debt
6
AI factors
moat, what no ratio measures
2,000+
data points
verified, per stock, median
69 individual criteria per stock, every one traceable See the method →
Price vs Fair Value
White line = price, green steps = our fair value per fiscal year, dashed = 300-day average. As of Sep 24, 2026.
How to read this chart
60‑month range $1.14 – $6.20 · the $1.14 price screens below the $1.71 fair value. Dashed = 300-day average. As of Sep 24, 2026.
Company profile
ZhongAn Online P & C Insurance Co., Ltd., an Internet-based Insurtech company, provides internet insurance and insurance information technology services in the People's Republic of China. It operates through Insurance, Technology, Banking, and Others segments.
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ZhongAn Online P & C Insurance Co., Ltd., an Internet-based Insurtech company, provides internet insurance and insurance information technology services in the People's Republic of China. It operates through Insurance, Technology, Banking, and Others segments. The company offers critical illness, health, and outpatient and emergency insurance; e-commerce insurance; travel accident, and flight or hotel cancellation insurance; motor insurance; cargo and shipping return insurance; credit and bond insurance; pet, pet food safety, pet transport protection, pet anesthesia accident, pet critical illness insurance, pet third-party liability, pet death compensation, and employee accident insurance for the pet industry; liability insurance; and drone and household property insurance solutions. It also offers IT related business, international IT consulting; banking services; and online life insurance services, insurance brokerage, and medical services. In addition, the company offers technology development and consulting, asset management, IT consulting, Internet hospital, pharmacy, technology training, and Fintech services. ZhongAn Online P & C Insurance Co., Ltd. was incorporated in 2013 and is headquartered in Shanghai, China.
Stock analysis
ZhongAn Online P & C Insurance Co (ZZHGY) currently trades at $1.14, while our model-based Fair Value estimate is $1.71, implying the stock looks roughly 33.3% undervalued today.
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Valuation
Bull case: the Economic Profit group reads highest at a median of $1.70 per share, and 4 of the 4 models we run sit above the $1.14 price.
Bear case: the Multiples group reads lowest at $1.27, and 0 of the 4 models stay below the price. Evidence for this calculation is medium.
Quality & growth
The Quality Score stands at 46/100 (below-average quality), in the Financial Services sector.
Healthy Growth: Revenue growth appears healthy and is supported by profitability and cash-flow quality.
ZhongAn Online P & C Insurance Co reported revenue of 34.8B CNY in FY2025 versus 21.9B CNY in FY2021, a compound +12.2%/yr. Reported net income was 1.1B CNY in FY2025, compounding +9.1%/yr from FY2021.
Key figures
Market cap $2.3B · P/E ratio 13.4 · P/S ratio 0.41 · EPS (TTM) $0.1000 · Net margin 3.1% · Return on equity 4.8% · Return on assets (EBIT) 23.0% · Operating margin 8.0%.
Competitive moat
Our AI-assisted moat analysis scores the competitive advantage at 32 out of 100 (medium confidence).
What moves the price
The share trades about 42% below its 52-week high and at its 52-week low, currently below its 200-day average.
For context, the median of 10 Financial Services peers we cover trades at −22% fair-value upside, at 50%, ZZHGY screens cheaper than that median.
Fair Value models
Bear $1.71
Fair Value $1.71
Bull $1.71
Model ⓘEach model values the company its own way (discounted cash flow, earnings, assets, dividends). The fair value above is their evidence-weighted blend, not the output of a single model. Based on fiscal year 2025 figures (about 9 months old). Earnings retained since then ($0.0756 per share) are deliberately not added.
Bear ⓘBear = the cautious scenario: the same model computed with conservative anchors (lower growth, margins and valuation multiples). Together with Bull it frames a plausible valuation range, not a price target.BaseBull ⓘBull = the optimistic scenario: the same model computed with favourable anchors (higher growth, margins and valuation multiples). Together with Bear it frames a plausible valuation range, not a price target. If a model's bull case is above four times its base value, the table shows that limit with a > sign (like the overall Bull above): beyond it no assumption holds.
Evidence ⓘEvidence = how well-backed THIS model's estimate is for this stock (0–100): how complete and reliable its input data are, and how well the model fits the company. The final Fair Value is an evidence-weighted blend, so better-evidenced models count more. Green ≥70, amber 50–69, grey below 50.
Highest evidence
Residual Income
$1.72
$1.70
$1.76
71
P/E Multiple
$0.9500
$1.27
$1.59
63
P/B Multiple
$1.25
$1.66
$2.08
55
All 4 models by family
Multiples
P/E Multiple
$0.9500
$1.27
$1.59
63
P/B Multiple
$1.25
$1.66
$2.08
55
Asset-Based
NCAV (Graham)
$1.16
$1.56
$2.33
54
Economic Profit
Residual Income
$1.72
$1.70
$1.76
71
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Set up alert →Quality Score breakdown
Overall quality
46/100
Of which business quality 50 · Market factors (momentum, volatility) 18
Profitability
46
Margins and returns on capital today
Quality Growth
49
Are margins and returns improving?
Cashflow
64
Earnings quality: real cash, not paper profit
Fin. Strength
55
Balance sheet, leverage, solvency risk
Investment
67
Disciplined investing over empire-building
Low Volatility
59
Calm price path (market factor)
Momentum
0
Price trend over the last 3–12 months (market factor)
52W Momentum
0
Distance to the 52-week high (market factor)
Net Issuance
17
Share count: buybacks or dilution?
Revenue & earnings trend
Growth Quality ⓘGrowth is valuable only when reinvestment earns attractive returns (Aswath Damodaran): sustainable growth depends on return on capital, reinvestment and efficiency. Basis: total company revenue over the periods shown on the cards (3Y/5Y/all years), not per share, so a merger can show up as a growth jump; per-share earnings growth is in the value-creation card.
89/100
Revenue growth appears healthy and is supported by profitability and cash-flow quality.
Revenue growth 1 year
+3.2%
Revenue growth 3 years ⓘMeasures the company's TOTAL revenue from reported annual statements: compound average growth per year (CAGR) from the fiscal year 3, 5 or N years back to the most recent comparable fiscal year. Not per share: buybacks do not change this number, and a merger can appear as a growth jump. Per-share growth (which does include buybacks) is in the value-creation card.
+15.4%
Revenue growth 5 years ⓘMeasures the company's TOTAL revenue from reported annual statements: compound average growth per year (CAGR) from the fiscal year 3, 5 or N years back to the most recent comparable fiscal year. Not per share: buybacks do not change this number, and a merger can appear as a growth jump. Per-share growth (which does include buybacks) is in the value-creation card.
+13.6%
Start year 2020 (pandemic). Over 10 years: +30.2% a year
Revenue growth 12 years ⓘMeasures the company's TOTAL revenue from reported annual statements: compound average growth per year (CAGR) from the fiscal year 3, 5 or N years back to the most recent comparable fiscal year. Not per share: buybacks do not change this number, and a merger can appear as a growth jump. Per-share growth (which does include buybacks) is in the value-creation card.
+71.9%
’14
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What shareholders gained per year (last 5 years) ⓘWhat the business itself delivers per year: earnings growth per share plus the dividend yield. This is what you get IF the market keeps valuing the stock the same way: it contains no assumption about the market changing its mind. Computed per share, so buybacks count and a merger does not pass as growth. For a company that pays no dividend it is pure earnings growth per share. Period: earnings growth per share as CAGR over the last 5 reported fiscal years (annual statements), plus the current dividend yield. The start value is the median of the three years around the start, so a single crisis year (a pandemic or a write-down) does not distort the rate.
+7.4%
Earnings growth per share plus dividend.
Earnings per share, growth per year+7.4%
Dividend (yield on the price)0.0%
Pace: 5 vs 10 years ⓘTwo data points, not a trend model: earnings growth per share over the last 5 fiscal years against the last 10. Labelled "steady" when both rates are within 3 percentage points of each other, otherwise picking up or flattening. Shown only when ten years of history exist.7.4% vs 37.8%, slowing
Profit margin 2019 to 2025 ⓘOperating margin then vs now, from reported annual statements. A falling margin after a boom year is the classic peak-earnings signal: the growth rate then leans on an inflated base.−3% → 4%
Start year 2020 (pandemic)
Growth Forecast
Little optimism in the price
The price assumes less growth than the company has delivered so far and less than analysts expect.
What the price assumes ⓘThis turns our valuation around: instead of asking what the share is worth, it asks what growth the current price requires. It uses the cash the company keeps after all spending (free cash flow), the same discount rate as our models, five years of growth, then slowing evenly to 2 % a year by year ten. Compared with the analysts' sales forecasts extended to the same five years (at least three analysts, for context only, it does not enter the Fair Value): within 3 percentage points counts as "in line" (amber), below that little optimism (green), above that a lot of optimism (red).
−19.3%
Yearly growth needed for the next five years to justify today's price.
What forecasts expect ⓘAnalysts publish sales forecasts for the next two fiscal years. For the years after that, growth slows evenly to 2 % a year by year ten (2 % is the long-run rate our models use). Projected years are marked as such.
+6.9%
Yearly sales growth analysts expect, extended to five years.
After inflation (figures in CNY, China: IMF forecast 1.7% a year to 2030, 1.4% from 2016 to 2025) that is about −20.6% a year for the price and +5.2% for the forecasts.
Forecast 2026 (sales)+6.3%
Forecast 2027 (sales)+8.3%
Projected 2028 (sales)+7.5%
Projected 2029 (sales)+6.7%
Projected 2030 (sales)+5.9%
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Peer GroupⓘHow this stock ranks against its industry: the green marker is this stock, the band is the typical 25–75% peer range, and the tick is the median.Insurance - Property & Casualty · 116 stocks
Beats the industry median on 6/12 measures
A mixed picture versus its industry peers.
Valuation Multiplesvs Insurance - Property & Casualty median · lower = cheaper
Context: sector, industry, market
- Is the Financials sector expensive or cheap?
- P/E, EV/EBITDA and margins by industry (reference tables)
- Undervalued stocks: US Stocks
- Valuation of the USA market
Values & ESG
Does this company touch areas you may want to avoid? The classification is inferred from sector and industry.
None of the checked exposures detected
Similar stocks
10 more Insurance - Property & Casualty stocks, each showing price versus our Fair Value estimate.
| Stock | Price | Fair Value | vs Fair Value |
|---|---|---|---|
| Chubb Limited CB | $331.37 | $235.99 | −29% |
| The Progressive Corporation PGR | $209.47 | $160.75 | −23% |
| The Travelers Companies, Inc TRV | $356.51 | $279.78 | −22% |
| The Allstate Corporation ALL | $224.41 | $290.52 | +29% |
| The People's Insurance Company 601319 | ¥7.98 | ¥9.02 | +13% |
| Fairfax Financial Holdings FFH | C$2,219 | C$3,257 | +47% |
| Intact Financial Corporation IFC | C$250.54 | C$167.88 | −33% |
| Cincinnati Financial Corporation CINF | $161.92 | $143.72 | −11% |
| W. R. Berkley Corporation WRB | $67.66 | $47.22 | −30% |
| QBE Insurance Group QBE | A$23.81 | A$13.42 | −44% |
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Frequently asked questions
Is ZhongAn Online P & C Insurance Co (ZZHGY) overvalued or undervalued?
As of Sep 24, 2026, our model estimates a fair value of $1.71 versus the last price from Sep 25, 2026 of $1.14, about +50% upside (undervalued).
What is the fair value of ZZHGY?
Our model-based fair value for ZhongAn Online P & C Insurance Co is $1.71 (as of Sep 24, 2026), built from audited fundamentals. Last price (from Sep 25, 2026): $1.14.
What is the quality score of ZZHGY?
ZhongAn Online P & C Insurance Co has a Quality Score of 46/100. It measures business quality (profitability, growth, cash flow, balance-sheet strength, investment discipline, share issuance). Market factors such as price momentum and volatility do not enter the number; they are shown separately in the detail view.
What is the price target for ZhongAn Online P & C Insurance Co (ZZHGY)?
Our model-based price target is the fair value of $1.71 (as of Sep 24, 2026) from 4 valuation models. It is a calculation from audited fundamentals, not an analyst target.
What is the ZhongAn Online P & C Insurance Co stock forecast for 2026?
Our models put fair value at $1.71, about +50% upside versus the last price from Sep 25, 2026 of $1.14 (undervalued). The calculation is refreshed regularly with new filings.
What is the revenue of ZhongAn Online P & C Insurance Co (ZZHGY)?
ZhongAn Online P & C Insurance Co reported trailing-twelve-month revenue of about 35.4B CNY (latest available figure, as of Sep 24, 2026).
What growth is priced into ZhongAn Online P & C Insurance Co (ZZHGY)?
For today's price to be fair in a discounted-cash-flow model, ZhongAn Online P & C Insurance Co would have to grow free cash flow by -19.3 % per year for five years (discount rate 9.4 %, then slowing evenly to 2 % perpetual growth by year ten). Over the last 5 years revenue grew +13.6 % per year. As of Sep 24, 2026.
What discount rate (WACC) does the fair value of ZZHGY use?
Our models discount ZhongAn Online P & C Insurance Co at 9.4 %: a base by market capitalisation (mid), damped by beta 0.84, country premium for USA. The same rate applies in all 26 models.
What is a reverse DCF?
A reverse DCF turns the usual calculation around. Instead of deriving a value from assumptions, it takes today's price as given and asks: what free-cash-flow growth would a company have to deliver for exactly this price to be fair? The result is not a forecast but the expectation already priced in. For ZhongAn Online P & C Insurance Co that is -19.3 % per year a year over ten years, using the same discount rate (9.4 %) and the same formula as our fair value.
How much growth has ZhongAn Online P & C Insurance Co (ZZHGY) delivered so far?
Over the past 5 years revenue at ZhongAn Online P & C Insurance Co grew +13.6 % a year. The price currently implies -19.3 % per year free-cash-flow growth a year. Comparing the two shows how much confidence is in the price: if it demands more than has been delivered, the business has to accelerate for the maths to work.
How fast is the sector of ZhongAn Online P & C Insurance Co (ZZHGY) growing?
The median revenue growth in the sector is +9.2 % a year. That is the yardstick for the growth priced into ZhongAn Online P & C Insurance Co (-19.3 % per year a year): it shows whether the expectation is within the usual range or beyond it.
What is the free cash flow yield of ZhongAn Online P & C Insurance Co (ZZHGY)?
The free-cash-flow yield on the price is 22.36 %: that much free cash flow ZhongAn Online P & C Insurance Co produces per unit of market value. When it exceeds the discount rate of our models (9.4 %), the business already earns more than its cost of capital demands, and the price needs little additional growth.
What is the intrinsic value of ZhongAn Online P & C Insurance Co (ZZHGY)?
Intrinsic value and fair value mean the same thing: what the business is worth on its numbers, independent of the share price. For ZhongAn Online P & C Insurance Co it is $1.71 per share (as of Sep 24, 2026), against a price of $1.14. It is the blended result of 4 valuation models (cash flow, earnings, asset, dividend).
Is ZhongAn Online P & C Insurance Co stock overvalued or undervalued in 2026?
As of Sep 24, 2026, ZZHGY trades below its calculated fair value: price $1.14, fair value $1.71, a gap of about +50% (undervalued). The calculation is refreshed with each new quarterly report, so the verdict can change during the year.
Is fair value the same as the market price of ZZHGY?
No. The price is what the market pays today ($1.14); the fair value is what the company's own numbers justify ($1.71). For ZhongAn Online P & C Insurance Co the two are $0.5700 per share apart. That gap is exactly why we show both numbers side by side.
How much is ZhongAn Online P & C Insurance Co worth?
The market values ZhongAn Online P & C Insurance Co at about $2.3B (market capitalisation, as of Sep 24, 2026). Per share that is $1.14; our models calculate a fair value of $1.71 per share.
What is the P/E ratio of ZZHGY?
ZhongAn Online P & C Insurance Co trades at a price-to-earnings ratio of 13.4 (as of Sep 24, 2026). A P/E on its own says little: it compares the price with ONE year of profit, while our fair value of $1.71 is built from several models across several years. Other multiples: PEG 2.6.
What is the PEG ratio of ZZHGY?
The PEG ratio of ZhongAn Online P & C Insurance Co is 2.63 (P/E divided by earnings growth, as of Sep 24, 2026). That is above 1, so the growth is already paid for in the price.
How solid is the balance sheet of ZhongAn Online P & C Insurance Co (ZZHGY)?
Balance-sheet figures for ZhongAn Online P & C Insurance Co (as of Sep 24, 2026): return on equity 4.8%, debt of 0.10 per unit of equity. They feed the Quality Score of 46/100, which measures business quality independently of the share price.
How far is ZZHGY from its 52-week high?
ZhongAn Online P & C Insurance Co trades at $1.14, about 42% below its 52-week high of $1.98 and at the low of $1.14 (as of Sep 25, 2026). Distance from the high says nothing about value: that is what the fair value of $1.71 is for.
Which stocks are comparable to ZhongAn Online P & C Insurance Co?
From the same area (Financial Services) we also value Chubb Limited, The Progressive Corporation, The Travelers Companies, Inc, The Allstate Corporation, among others. Each of them has its own fair-value calculation on this site using the same models, so the comparison is like for like.
Is ZhongAn Online P & C Insurance Co stock attractive at the current price?
The data as of Sep 24, 2026: price $1.14, calculated fair value $1.71 (+50%), Quality Score 46/100, from 4 models. Whether that fits your horizon and risk tolerance is your call. We provide the calculation, not investment advice.
How is the fair value of ZZHGY calculated?
We run ZhongAn Online P & C Insurance Co through 4 models from four families: discounted cash flow, earnings models, asset and balance-sheet models, and dividend models. Every model gets the same audited fundamentals; the result is the weighted average of $1.71, with the spread shown as a cautious and an optimistic scenario.
Is it still worth investing in stocks now?
The global stock market currently sits 14.5 % above its aggregate fair value. ZhongAn Online P & C Insurance Co currently trades 33 % below its own fair value, and the market average says nothing about that. An expensive market is no reason to stay out and no reason to buy everything at once: keep a broad savings plan running, buy single stocks only with money you can do without, and hold part of your money liquid while the market is high. The full picture including sectors is on is it worth investing now.
What is the share price of ZhongAn Online P & C Insurance Co (ZZHGY)?
The latest price we hold is from Sep 25, 2026 and stands at $1.14. Our model-based fair value is $1.71, about +50% upside (undervalued). We carry closing prices from our data provider, not a live tick.
What should I pay attention to with ZhongAn Online P & C Insurance Co right now?
The price is below even our cautious bear case ($1.71). The market is more pessimistic than our downside scenario. Solid quality (46/100) at a price below fair value, the discount is the argument here, not the business quality. For a financial, book-value and earnings-based methods matter more than a cash-flow DCF, which fits banks and insurers poorly.
Where does the earnings growth of ZhongAn Online P & C Insurance Co (ZZHGY) come from?
Earnings per share at ZhongAn Online P & C Insurance Co grew +57.4 % a year from 2014 to 2025. Broken into its drivers: revenue per share +33.8 %, EBIT margin +40.9 %, tax rate +0.6 %, residual (interest, one-offs) −17.0 %. The four rates multiply to the earnings growth rate, they do not add up. Start and end are three-year averages so a single exceptional year does not distort the result.
Key figures of ZhongAn Online P & C Insurance Co
How large is the market capitalisation of ZhongAn Online P & C Insurance Co (ZZHGY)?
The market capitalisation of ZhongAn Online P & C Insurance Co is $2.3B. The stock-market value of the whole company: share price times number of shares. It is what the market asks for the entire business today.
What is the P/S ratio of ZhongAn Online P & C Insurance Co (ZZHGY)?
The price-to-sales ratio of ZhongAn Online P & C Insurance Co is 0.41 (P/E × margin). Price to sales: market value relative to yearly revenue. Useful when profit is thin or distorted.
What are the earnings per share of ZhongAn Online P & C Insurance Co (ZZHGY)?
Earnings per share at ZhongAn Online P & C Insurance Co are $0.1000 (price ÷ EPS = P/E 13.4). Earnings per share over the last twelve months: total profit spread across every single share.
What is the net margin of ZhongAn Online P & C Insurance Co (ZZHGY)?
The net margin of ZhongAn Online P & C Insurance Co is 3.1% (fiscal year 2025). How much of every unit of revenue ends up as profit. 10% means 10 cents of profit per dollar of sales.
What is the return on equity of ZhongAn Online P & C Insurance Co (ZZHGY)?
The return on equity (ROE) of ZhongAn Online P & C Insurance Co is 4.8% (last twelve months). Profit relative to shareholders' equity, how efficiently the company works with its owners' money.
What is the EBIT return on assets of ZhongAn Online P & C Insurance Co (ZZHGY)?
On an EBIT basis the return on assets of ZhongAn Online P & C Insurance Co is 23.0% (avg 5y). Operating profit (EBIT) relative to everything the company owns, as a multi-year average. It describes the business model rather than one good or bad year.
What is the operating margin of ZhongAn Online P & C Insurance Co (ZZHGY)?
The operating margin of ZhongAn Online P & C Insurance Co is 8.0% (last twelve months). Profit from the core business (before interest and taxes) relative to revenue.
How fast is revenue growing at ZhongAn Online P & C Insurance Co (ZZHGY)?
Revenue at ZhongAn Online P & C Insurance Co is growing +10.1% versus a year earlier (3y avg +15.4%). How much revenue grew versus a year earlier (YoY). The 3-year average next to it puts the single year in context.
How fast are earnings growing at ZhongAn Online P & C Insurance Co (ZZHGY)?
Earnings per share at ZhongAn Online P & C Insurance Co are growing −30.3% versus a year earlier. How much earnings per share grew versus a year earlier.
How much net debt does ZhongAn Online P & C Insurance Co (ZZHGY) carry?
The net debt of ZhongAn Online P & C Insurance Co is 5.2B CNY (fiscal year 2025, ≈ 1.8 yrs of FCF). Debt minus cash on hand. The note shows how many years of free cash flow could in theory pay it off.
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