Arch Capital Group Ltd. (ACGL) fair value: what the stock is really worth
As of Nov 4, 2026: fair value (intrinsic value) of Arch Capital Group Ltd. stock $133, price $111, upside +20.4%, quality 70 out of 100. Rating: undervalued. Calculated from audited financials with 6 of our 26 valuation models and 37 quality factors, updated daily.
Keep an eye on it?Free in your watchlist: 5 stocks without an account, 10 with oneYes, for free
69 individual criteria per stock, every one traceableSee the method →
Price vs Fair Value
White line = price, green steps = our fair value per fiscal year. As of Nov 5, 2026.
How to read this chart
60‑month range $36.31 – $110.68 · fair‑value band $93.72 – $166.52 · the $110.68 price screens below the $133.22 fair value. Green steps = our fair value per fiscal year (point-in-time, no hindsight). 2 fiscal years are left out: there the valuation rested on only a fraction of the usual models. As of Nov 5, 2026.
Follow Arch Capital Group in your weekly email
Every Wednesday you see whether Arch Capital Group is on track or worth a review, plus price against fair value. Free, up to 3 stocks.
We send you a confirmation link. Unsubscribe with one click.
Arch Capital Group Ltd., together with its subsidiaries, provides insurance, reinsurance, and mortgage insurance products in the United States, Canada, Bermuda, the United Kingdom, Europe, and Australia. The company operates through three segments: Insurance, Reinsurance, and Mortgage.
Show moreShow less
The Insurance segment offers commercial automobile; commercial multiperil; financial and professional line liability; admitted, excess, and surplus casualty lines; property and short-tail specialty; workers compensation; and casualty insurance.
Its Reinsurance segment provides reinsurance products for casualty; marine and aviation; property catastrophe; property excluding property catastrophe; and other specialty products.
The Mortgage segment offers U.S. primary mortgage insurance business written predominantly on loans sold to the Federal National Mortgage Association and Federal Home Loan Mortgage Corporation; reinsurance and underwriting services related to the U.S. credit-risk transfer business and other U.S. mortgage reinsurance transactions; and international mortgage insurance and reinsurance business covering loans.
It markets its products through a group of licensed independent retail and wholesale brokers. The company was formerly known as Risk Capital Holdings, Inc. Arch Capital Group Ltd. was founded in 1995 and is headquartered in Pembroke, Bermuda.
Stock analysis
Arch Capital Group Ltd. (ACGL) currently trades at $110.68, while our model-based Fair Value estimate is $133.22, implying the stock looks roughly 17% undervalued today.
Show more
Valuation
Bull case: the Economic Profit group reads highest at a median of $134.56 per share, and 2 of the 6 models we run sit above the $110.68 price.
Bear case: the Asset-Based group reads lowest at $43.65, and 4 of the 6 models stay below the price. Data coverage for this calculation is high.
Scenario range: $93.72 (bear) to $166.52 (bull), the price of $110.68 sits inside it. Bear and bull are the same models on cautious and optimistic assumptions, a range, not a price target.
Quality & growth
The Quality Score stands at 70/100 (solid quality), in the Financial Services sector.
Healthy Growth: Revenue growth appears healthy and is supported by profitability and cash-flow quality.
Arch Capital Group Ltd. reported revenue of $19.9B in FY2025 versus $8.9B in FY2021, a compound +22.2%/yr. Reported net income was $4.4B in FY2025, compounding +19.5%/yr from FY2021.
Key figures
Market cap $38.6B Large · P/E ratio 9.0 · P/S ratio 2.06 · EPS (TTM) $12.23 · Dividend yield 0.1% · Net margin 23.3% · Return on equity 18.7% · Return on assets (EBIT) 5.1%.
Competitive moat
Our AI-assisted moat analysis scores the competitive advantage at 76 out of 100 (medium confidence).
What moves the price
The share trades at its 52-week high and 27% above its 52-week low, currently above its 200-day average.
For context, the median of 10 Financial Services peers we cover trades at −39% fair-value upside, at 20%, ACGL screens cheaper than that median.
Fair Value models
Bear$93.72Fair Value $133.22Bull$166.52
Price $110.68 · Upside +20.4%
Model ⓘEach model values the company its own way (discounted cash flow, earnings, assets, dividends). The fair value above starts from their evidence-weighted blend, not from a single model. In cyclical trough or peak years, after dilution or a stock split it is adjusted afterwards, so it can sit above or below the models. Based on fiscal year 2025 figures (about 10 months old). Earnings retained since then ($10.35 per share) are deliberately not added.Bear ⓘBear = the cautious scenario: the same model computed with conservative anchors (lower growth, margins and valuation multiples). Together with Bull it frames a plausible valuation range, not a price target.BaseBull ⓘBull = the optimistic scenario: the same model computed with favourable anchors (higher growth, margins and valuation multiples). Together with Bear it frames a plausible valuation range, not a price target. If a model's bull case is above four times its base value, the table shows that limit with a > sign (like the overall Bull above): beyond it no assumption holds.Coverage ⓘCoverage = how well-backed THIS model's estimate is for this stock (0–100): how complete and reliable its input data are, and how well the model fits the company. The final Fair Value is an evidence-weighted blend, so better-evidenced models count more. Green ≥70, amber 50–69, grey below 50.
In the last 6 months, one officer or director sold shares worth $1.1M and none bought.
SaleFrancois MorinCFO and Treasurer2× since Nov 28, 2025: 19,010 shares, avg. $97.34$1.9MAug 18, 2026
BuyDaniel Joseph HoustonDirector5,300 shares at $94.09$498,677Apr 30, 2026
SaleNicolas PapadopouloCEO, Director21,930 shares at $96.31$2.1MMar 10, 2026
SaleDavid GansbergPresident, Arch Capital Group5,907 shares at $96.37$569,258Mar 10, 2026
SaleMaamoun RajehPresident, Arch Capital Group47,430 shares at $96.12$4.6MFeb 11, 2026
SaleJohn M PasquesiDirector212,666 shares at $93.91$20.0MDec 15, 2025
Plus 2 other filings such as grants, option exercises or tax withholding. They are not market purchases or sales.
Sales are often planned (taxes, diversification, 10b5-1 plans). Purchases with their own money are seen as the stronger sign. For information only: not part of the quality score or Fair Value.
Growth Quality ⓘGrowth is valuable only when reinvestment earns attractive returns (Aswath Damodaran): sustainable growth depends on return on capital, reinvestment and efficiency. Basis: total company revenue over the periods shown on the cards (3Y/5Y/all years), not per share, so a merger can show up as a growth jump; per-share earnings growth is in the value-creation card.100/100
Revenue growth appears healthy and is supported by profitability and cash-flow quality.
Revenue growth 1 year
+14.3%
Revenue growth 3 years ⓘMeasures the company's TOTAL revenue from reported annual statements: compound average growth per year (CAGR) from the fiscal year 3, 5 or N years back to the most recent comparable fiscal year. Not per share: buybacks do not change this number, and a merger can appear as a growth jump. Per-share growth (which does include buybacks) is in the value-creation card.
+27.3%
Revenue growth 5 years ⓘMeasures the company's TOTAL revenue from reported annual statements: compound average growth per year (CAGR) from the fiscal year 3, 5 or N years back to the most recent comparable fiscal year. Not per share: buybacks do not change this number, and a merger can appear as a growth jump. Per-share growth (which does include buybacks) is in the value-creation card.
+19.2%
Start year 2020 (pandemic). Over 10 years: +17.5% a year
Revenue growth 30 years ⓘMeasures the company's TOTAL revenue from reported annual statements: compound average growth per year (CAGR) from the fiscal year 3, 5 or N years back to the most recent comparable fiscal year. Not per share: buybacks do not change this number, and a merger can appear as a growth jump. Per-share growth (which does include buybacks) is in the value-creation card.
+31.8%
’14
’15
’16
’17
’18
’19
’20
’21
’22
’23
’24
’25
What shareholders gained per year (last 5 years) ⓘWhat the business itself delivers per year: earnings growth per share plus the dividend yield. This is what you get IF the market keeps valuing the stock the same way: it contains no assumption about the market changing its mind. Computed per share, so buybacks count and a merger does not pass as growth. For a company that pays no dividend it is pure earnings growth per share. Period: earnings growth per share as CAGR over the last 5 reported fiscal years (annual statements), plus the current dividend yield. The start value is the median of the three years around the start, so a single crisis year (a pandemic or a write-down) does not distort the rate. Basis: adjusted.
+23.5%
Earnings growth per share plus dividend.
Earnings per share, growth per year+23.4%
Dividend (yield on the price)0.1%
Pace: 5 vs 10 years ⓘTwo data points, not a trend model: earnings growth per share over the last 5 fiscal years against the last 10. Labelled "steady" when both rates are within 3 percentage points of each other, otherwise picking up or flattening. Shown only when ten years of history exist.24.1% vs 20.2%, picking up
Profit margin 2020 to 2025 ⓘOperating margin then vs now, from reported annual statements. A falling margin after a boom year is the classic peak-earnings signal: the growth rate then leans on an inflated base.17% → 25%
Pace: the 5-year rate starts in 2020 (pandemic)
Growth Forecast
Little optimism in the price
The price assumes less growth than the company has delivered so far and less than analysts expect.
What the price assumes ⓘThis turns our valuation around: instead of asking what the share is worth, it asks what growth the current price requires. It uses the cash the company keeps after all spending (free cash flow), the same discount rate as our models, five years of growth, then slowing evenly to 2 % a year by year ten. Compared with the analysts' sales forecasts extended to the same five years (at least three analysts, for context only, it does not enter the Fair Value): within 3 percentage points counts as "in line" (amber), below that little optimism (green), above that a lot of optimism (red).
−19.2%
The company could shrink this much every year for the next five years and today's price would still be justified.
What forecasts expect ⓘAnalysts publish sales forecasts for the next two fiscal years. For the years after that, growth slows evenly to 2 % a year by year ten (2 % is the long-run rate our models use). Projected years are marked as such.
−9.3%
Yearly sales growth analysts expect, extended to five years.
After inflation (USA: IMF forecast 2.4% a year to 2030, 3.1% from 2016 to 2025) that is about −21.0% a year for the price and −11.4% for the forecasts.
News mood ⓘNews mood, the average tone of recent news (100 articles), rated against how stocks are usually covered. 🚀 Hype = unusually upbeat · 🙂 Positive = above average · 😐 Neutral = typical · 🙁 Negative = below average · 😨 Very negative = unusually downbeat. It reflects the tone of coverage, not our valuation.Positive
Recent news coverage is more positive than average.
AI conclusion: Diversified lines across insurance, reinsurance and mortgage create a buffer in varying conditions, while limited public signals on innovation and ownership leave long-term durability harder to confirm.
Main risk: Advanced AI tools could accelerate and scale cyberattacks, leading to larger or more systemic claims that pressure margins in Arch Capital's cyber insurance and reinsurance segments.
Bull case: Arch Capital could leverage its decade-long AI investments and underwriting discipline to better price and mitigate emerging cyber risks while adapting to the new tax regime through operational efficiencies.
Bear case: If AI-driven systemic cyber events materialise alongside higher taxes and added IAIG compliance costs, Arch Capital's margins in cyber and other lines could erode significantly, limiting its ability to maintain diversified buffers.
Arch Capital runs insurance, reinsurance and mortgage lines that together provide some buffer in varying market conditions. With earnings due soon and forecasts pointing to softer results, the mortgage segment in particular has acted as a stabilizer in recent periods. Does cycle management keep margins intact across the book, or do external shocks in any one area override that discipline?
Compare Arch Capital Group Ltd. with another stock
Price, fair value, quality and upside side by side.
Free, no sign-up
Peer GroupⓘHow this stock ranks against its industry: the green marker is this stock, the band is the typical 25–75% peer range, and the tick is the median.Insurance - Diversified · 73 stocks
Beats the industry median on 11/15 measures
Overall it ranks above its industry peers.
Valuation
Quality Score70 · Top 25%
Fair Value upside+20.4% · Top 25%
Profitability
Return on equity (12 months)18.7% · Above median
Return on assets6.6% · Top 25%
Net margin (12 months)23.3% · Top 25%
Operating margin (12 months)26.8% · Top 25%
Growth and dividend
Revenue growth (quarter YoY)−8.9% · Bottom 25%
Dividend yield (12 months)0.1% · Bottom 25%
Balance sheet
Debt / equity0.11× · Below median
Valuation Multiplesvs Insurance - Diversified median · lower = cheaper
For bloggers, editors and developers: paste this into your site or blog (a “Custom HTML” block in WordPress), it shows the current fair value and links back here. Free, plain HTML, and welcome. Full data streams (CSV/JSON) at /developers.
Cite: Fair Value Calculator (2026). "Arch Capital Group Ltd. Fair Value". https://www.fairvalue-calculator.com/stock/ACGL
Frequently asked questions
Is Arch Capital Group Ltd. (ACGL) overvalued or undervalued?
As of Nov 5, 2026, our model estimates a fair value of $133.22 versus a price of $110.68, about +20% upside (undervalued).
What is the fair value of ACGL?
Our model-based fair value for Arch Capital Group Ltd. is $133.22 (as of Nov 5, 2026), built from audited fundamentals. The current price: $110.68.
What is the quality score of ACGL?
Arch Capital Group Ltd. has a Quality Score of 70/100. It measures business quality (profitability, growth, cash flow, balance-sheet strength, investment discipline, share issuance). Market factors such as price momentum and volatility do not enter the number; they are shown separately in the detail view.
What is the price target for Arch Capital Group Ltd. (ACGL)?
Our model-based price target is the fair value of $133.22 (as of Nov 5, 2026) from 6 valuation models. Cautious scenario $93.72, optimistic scenario $166.52. It is a calculation from audited fundamentals, not an analyst target.
What is the Arch Capital Group Ltd. stock forecast for 2026?
Our models put fair value at $133.22, about +20% upside versus a price of $110.68 (undervalued). Cautious scenario $93.72, optimistic scenario $166.52. The calculation is refreshed regularly with new filings.
What is the revenue of Arch Capital Group Ltd. (ACGL)?
Arch Capital Group Ltd. reported trailing-twelve-month revenue of about $18.8B (latest available figure, as of Nov 5, 2026).
Does Arch Capital Group Ltd. pay a dividend?
Arch Capital Group Ltd. currently shows a dividend yield of 0.14% relative to its recent price (as of Nov 5, 2026).
What growth is priced into Arch Capital Group Ltd. (ACGL)?
For today's price to be fair in a discounted-cash-flow model, Arch Capital Group Ltd. would have to grow free cash flow by -19.2 % per year for five years (discount rate 8.1 %, then slowing evenly to 2 % perpetual growth by year ten). Over the last 5 years revenue grew +19.2 % per year. As of Nov 5, 2026.
What discount rate (WACC) does the fair value of ACGL use?
Our models discount Arch Capital Group Ltd. at 8.1 %: a base by market capitalisation (large), damped by beta 0.26, country premium for USA. The same rate applies in all 26 models.
What is a reverse DCF?
A reverse DCF turns the usual calculation around. Instead of deriving a value from assumptions, it takes today's price as given and asks: what free-cash-flow growth would a company have to deliver for exactly this price to be fair? The result is not a forecast but the expectation already priced in. For Arch Capital Group Ltd. that is -19.2 % per year a year over ten years, using the same discount rate (8.1 %) and the same formula as our fair value.
How much growth has Arch Capital Group Ltd. (ACGL) delivered so far?
Over the past 5 years revenue at Arch Capital Group Ltd. grew +19.2 % a year. The price currently implies -19.2 % per year free-cash-flow growth a year. Comparing the two shows how much confidence is in the price: if it demands more than has been delivered, the business has to accelerate for the maths to work.
How fast is the sector of Arch Capital Group Ltd. (ACGL) growing?
The median revenue growth in the sector is +9.4 % a year. That is the yardstick for the growth priced into Arch Capital Group Ltd. (-19.2 % per year a year): it shows whether the expectation is within the usual range or beyond it.
What is the free cash flow yield of Arch Capital Group Ltd. (ACGL)?
The free-cash-flow yield on the price is 15.87 %: that much free cash flow Arch Capital Group Ltd. produces per unit of market value. When it exceeds the discount rate of our models (8.1 %), the business already earns more than its cost of capital demands, and the price needs little additional growth.
What is the intrinsic value of Arch Capital Group Ltd. (ACGL)?
Intrinsic value and fair value mean the same thing: what the business is worth on its numbers, independent of the share price. For Arch Capital Group Ltd. it is $133.22 per share (as of Nov 5, 2026), against a price of $110.68. It is the blended result of 6 valuation models (cash flow, earnings, asset, dividend).
Is Arch Capital Group Ltd. stock overvalued or undervalued in 2026?
As of Nov 5, 2026, ACGL trades below its calculated fair value: price $110.68, fair value $133.22, a gap of about +20% (undervalued). The calculation is refreshed with each new quarterly report, so the verdict can change during the year.
Is fair value the same as the market price of ACGL?
No. The price is what the market pays today ($110.68); the fair value is what the company's own numbers justify ($133.22). For Arch Capital Group Ltd. the two are $22.54 per share apart. That gap is exactly why we show both numbers side by side.
How much is Arch Capital Group Ltd. worth?
The market values Arch Capital Group Ltd. at about $38.6B (market capitalisation, as of Nov 5, 2026). Per share that is $110.68; our models calculate a fair value of $133.22 per share.
What do the bullish and bearish scenarios say about ACGL?
Our models span a range for Arch Capital Group Ltd.: cautious scenario $93.72, base $133.22, optimistic $166.52 per share (as of Nov 5, 2026, price $110.68). The range comes from different growth and margin assumptions, not from analyst opinions.
What is the P/E ratio of ACGL?
Arch Capital Group Ltd. trades at a price-to-earnings ratio of 9.0 (as of Nov 5, 2026). A P/E on its own says little: it compares the price with ONE year of profit, while our fair value of $133.22 is built from several models across several years. Median P/E at fiscal year-end, 8 fiscal years (2018 to 2025), reported earnings, 4 of the years ex one-offs: 9.7. Other multiples: PEG 1.1, P/B 1.6, P/S 2.1, EV/EBITDA 7.7.
What is the PEG ratio of ACGL?
The PEG ratio of Arch Capital Group Ltd. is 1.05 (P/E divided by earnings growth, as of Nov 5, 2026). That is above 1, so the growth is already paid for in the price.
How solid is the balance sheet of Arch Capital Group Ltd. (ACGL)?
Balance-sheet figures for Arch Capital Group Ltd. (as of Nov 5, 2026): return on equity 18.7%, debt of 0.11 per unit of equity. They feed the Quality Score of 70/100, which measures business quality independently of the share price.
How far is ACGL from its 52-week high?
Arch Capital Group Ltd. trades at $110.68, at its 52-week high of $110.68 and 27% above the low of $87.47 (as of Nov 4, 2026). Distance from the high says nothing about value: that is what the fair value of $133.22 is for.
Which stocks are comparable to Arch Capital Group Ltd.?
From the same area (Financial Services) we also value Allianz SE, Zurich Insurance Group, AXA SA, Assicurazioni Generali S.p.A, among others. Each of them has its own fair-value calculation on this site using the same models, so the comparison is like for like.
Is Arch Capital Group Ltd. stock attractive at the current price?
The data as of Nov 5, 2026: price $110.68, calculated fair value $133.22 (+20%), Quality Score 70/100, from 6 models. Whether that fits your horizon and risk tolerance is your call. We provide the calculation, not investment advice.
How is the fair value of ACGL calculated?
We run Arch Capital Group Ltd. through 6 models from four families: discounted cash flow, earnings models, asset and balance-sheet models, and dividend models. Every model gets the same audited fundamentals; the result is the weighted average of $133.22, with the spread shown as a cautious and an optimistic scenario.
Is it still worth investing in stocks now?
The global stock market currently sits 15.6% above its aggregate fair value. Arch Capital Group Ltd. currently trades 17% below its own fair value, and the market average says nothing about that. An expensive market is no reason to stay out and no reason to buy everything at once: keep a broad savings plan running, buy single stocks only with money you can do without, and hold part of your money liquid while the market is high. The full picture including sectors is on is it worth investing now.
What is the share price of Arch Capital Group Ltd. (ACGL)?
The closing price on Nov 4, 2026 was $110.68. Our model-based fair value is $133.22, about +20% upside (undervalued). We carry closing prices from our data provider, not a live tick.
What should I pay attention to with Arch Capital Group Ltd. right now?
Solid quality (70/100) at a price below fair value, the discount is the argument here, not the business quality. For a financial, book-value and earnings-based methods matter more than a cash-flow DCF, which fits banks and insurers poorly.
Where does the earnings growth of Arch Capital Group Ltd. (ACGL) come from?
Earnings per share at Arch Capital Group Ltd. grew +23.1 % a year from 2014 to 2025. Broken into its drivers: revenue per share +17.1 %, EBIT margin +3.3 %, tax rate +0.3 %, residual (interest, one-offs) +1.5 %. The four rates multiply to the earnings growth rate, they do not add up. Start and end are three-year averages so a single exceptional year does not distort the result.
Key figures of Arch Capital Group Ltd.
How large is the market capitalisation of Arch Capital Group Ltd. (ACGL)?
The market capitalisation of Arch Capital Group Ltd. is $38.6B. The stock-market value of the whole company: share price times number of shares. It is what the market asks for the entire business today.
What is the P/S ratio of Arch Capital Group Ltd. (ACGL)?
The price-to-sales ratio of Arch Capital Group Ltd. is 2.06 (last twelve months). Price to sales: market value relative to yearly revenue. Useful when profit is thin or distorted.
What are the earnings per share of Arch Capital Group Ltd. (ACGL)?
Earnings per share at Arch Capital Group Ltd. are $12.23 (price ÷ EPS = P/E 9.0). Earnings per share over the last twelve months: total profit spread across every single share.
What is the dividend yield of Arch Capital Group Ltd. (ACGL)?
The dividend yield of Arch Capital Group Ltd. is 0.1% (payout 1.2%). Yearly dividend relative to the share price. 3% pays 3 per 100 invested. Below: how much of profit is used for it.
What is the net margin of Arch Capital Group Ltd. (ACGL)?
The net margin of Arch Capital Group Ltd. is 23.3% (last twelve months). How much of every unit of revenue ends up as profit. 10% means 10 cents of profit per dollar of sales.
What is the return on equity of Arch Capital Group Ltd. (ACGL)?
The return on equity (ROE) of Arch Capital Group Ltd. is 18.7% (last twelve months). Profit relative to shareholders' equity, how efficiently the company works with its owners' money.
What is the EBIT return on assets of Arch Capital Group Ltd. (ACGL)?
On an EBIT basis the return on assets of Arch Capital Group Ltd. is 5.1% (avg 5y). Operating profit (EBIT) relative to everything the company owns, as a multi-year average. It describes the business model rather than one good or bad year.
What is the operating margin of Arch Capital Group Ltd. (ACGL)?
The operating margin of Arch Capital Group Ltd. is 26.8% (last twelve months). Profit from the core business (before interest and taxes) relative to revenue.
How fast is revenue growing at Arch Capital Group Ltd. (ACGL)?
Revenue at Arch Capital Group Ltd. is growing −8.9% versus a year earlier (3y avg +27.3%). How much revenue grew versus a year earlier (YoY). The 3-year average next to it puts the single year in context.
How fast are earnings growing at Arch Capital Group Ltd. (ACGL)?
Earnings per share at Arch Capital Group Ltd. are growing −15.7% versus a year earlier. How much earnings per share grew versus a year earlier.
How much net debt does Arch Capital Group Ltd. (ACGL) carry?
The net debt of Arch Capital Group Ltd. is $1.7B (fiscal year 2025, ≈ 0.3 yrs of FCF). Debt minus cash on hand. The note shows how many years of free cash flow could in theory pay it off.
Free · no account needed
Watch Arch Capital Group Ltd. in the live analysis
One click puts Arch Capital Group Ltd. on your watchlist: fair value and trend at a glance, plus comparison, the diversification check and the 27,000+ stock screener.
Broad data
Nov 5, 2026