Ares Capital Corporation (ARCC) fair value: what the stock is really worth
As of Nov 5, 2026: fair value (intrinsic value) of Ares Capital Corporation stock $28.61, price $19.35, upside +47.9%, quality 54 out of 100. Rating: undervalued. Calculated from audited financials with 12 of our 26 valuation models and 37 quality factors, updated daily.
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Price vs Fair Value
White line = price, green steps = our fair value per fiscal year. As of Nov 5, 2026.
How to read this chart
60‑month range $11.65 – $21.10 · fair‑value band $17.44 – $54.76 · the $19.35 price screens below the $28.61 fair value. Green steps = our fair value per fiscal year (point-in-time, no hindsight). As of Nov 5, 2026.
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Ares Capital Corporation is a business development company specializing in growth capital, acquisition, recapitalization, mezzanine debt, restructurings, rescue financing, and leveraged buyout transactions of middle market companies. It also makes growth capital and general refinancing.
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It prefers to make investments in companies engaged in sports, media & entertainment, industrials & business services, infrastructure & power, financial institution groups, software & technology, specialty healthcare, consumer, retail & services, energy and the basic and growth manufacturing, consumer products, health care products, and information technology service sectors.
The fund will also consider investments in industries such as restaurants, retail, oil and gas, and technology sectors. It invests in the United States based companies.
It focuses on investments in Northeast, Mid-Atlantic, Southeast and Southwest regions from its New York office, the Midwest region, from the Chicago office, and the Western region from the Los Angeles office.
The fund typically invests between $30 million and $500 million, in companies with an EBITDA between $10 million and $250 million.
It makes debt investments between $10 million and $100 million The fund invests through revolvers, first lien loans, warrants, unitranche structures, second lien loans, mezzanine debt, private high yield, junior capital, subordinated debt, and non-control preferred and common equity.
The fund also selectively considers third-party-led senior and subordinated debt financings and opportunistically considers the purchase of stressed and discounted debt positions. The fund prefers to be an agent and/or lead the transactions in which it invests.
The fund also seeks board representation in its portfolio companies.
Stock analysis
Ares Capital Corporation (ARCC) currently trades at $19.35, while our model-based Fair Value estimate is $28.61, implying the stock looks roughly 32% undervalued today.
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Valuation
Bull case: the Earnings-Based group reads highest at a median of $36.48 per share, and 9 of the 12 models we run sit above the $19.35 price.
Bear case: the Growth DCF group reads lowest at $9.54, and 3 of the 12 models stay below the price. Data coverage for this calculation is high.
Scenario range: $17.44 (bear) to $54.76 (bull), the price of $19.35 sits inside it. Bear and bull are the same models on cautious and optimistic assumptions, a range, not a price target.
Quality & growth
The Quality Score stands at 54/100 (solid quality), in the Financial Services sector.
Healthy Growth: Revenue growth appears healthy and is supported by profitability and cash-flow quality.
Ares Capital Corporation reported revenue of $3.1B in FY2025 versus $1.7B in FY2021, a compound +17.0%/yr. Reported net income was $1.3B in FY2025, compounding −4.6%/yr from FY2021.
Key figures
Market cap $13.9B Large · P/E ratio 15.9 · P/S ratio 4.50 · EPS (TTM) $1.22 · Dividend yield 9.9% · Net margin 28.4% · Return on equity 6.2% · Return on assets (EBIT) 5.7%.
Competitive moat
Our AI-assisted moat analysis scores the competitive advantage at 65 out of 100 (low confidence).
What moves the price
The share trades about 4% below its 52-week high and 14% above its 52-week low, currently above its 200-day average.
For context, the median of 10 Financial Services peers we cover trades at −16% fair-value upside, at 48%, ARCC screens cheaper than that median.
Fair Value models
Bear$17.44Fair Value $28.61Bull$54.76
Price $19.35 · Upside +47.9%
Model ⓘEach model values the company its own way (discounted cash flow, earnings, assets, dividends). The fair value above starts from their evidence-weighted blend, not from a single model. In cyclical trough or peak years, after dilution or a stock split it is adjusted afterwards, so it can sit above or below the models.Bear ⓘBear = the cautious scenario: the same model computed with conservative anchors (lower growth, margins and valuation multiples). Together with Bull it frames a plausible valuation range, not a price target.BaseBull ⓘBull = the optimistic scenario: the same model computed with favourable anchors (higher growth, margins and valuation multiples). Together with Bear it frames a plausible valuation range, not a price target. If a model's bull case is above four times its base value, the table shows that limit with a > sign (like the overall Bull above): beyond it no assumption holds.Coverage ⓘCoverage = how well-backed THIS model's estimate is for this stock (0–100): how complete and reliable its input data are, and how well the model fits the company. The final Fair Value is an evidence-weighted blend, so better-evidenced models count more. Green ≥70, amber 50–69, grey below 50.
In the last 6 months, one officer or director bought shares worth $46,150, on Oct 28, 2026.
BuyMary Beth HensonDirector2× since Feb 5, 2026: 6,500 shares, avg. $18.88$122,710Oct 28, 2026
BuyJana MarkowiczChief Operating Officer15,000 shares at $19.20$288,000Feb 9, 2026
BuyScott C LemCFO and Treasurer5,186 shares at $19.29$100,038Feb 6, 2026
BuyMichael Kort SchnabelChief Executive Officer12,500 shares at $19.13$239,125Feb 5, 2026
Sales are often planned (taxes, diversification, 10b5-1 plans). Purchases with their own money are seen as the stronger sign. For information only: not part of the quality score or Fair Value.
Growth Quality ⓘGrowth is valuable only when reinvestment earns attractive returns (Aswath Damodaran): sustainable growth depends on return on capital, reinvestment and efficiency. Basis: total company revenue over the periods shown on the cards (3Y/5Y/all years), not per share, so a merger can show up as a growth jump; per-share earnings growth is in the value-creation card.95/100
Revenue growth appears healthy and is supported by profitability and cash-flow quality.
Revenue growth 1 year
+32.9%
Revenue growth 3 years ⓘMeasures the company's TOTAL revenue from reported annual statements: compound average growth per year (CAGR) from the fiscal year 3, 5 or N years back to the most recent comparable fiscal year. Not per share: buybacks do not change this number, and a merger can appear as a growth jump. Per-share growth (which does include buybacks) is in the value-creation card.
+38.0%
Revenue growth 5 years ⓘMeasures the company's TOTAL revenue from reported annual statements: compound average growth per year (CAGR) from the fiscal year 3, 5 or N years back to the most recent comparable fiscal year. Not per share: buybacks do not change this number, and a merger can appear as a growth jump. Per-share growth (which does include buybacks) is in the value-creation card.
+42.2%
Start year 2020 (pandemic). Over 10 years: +16.6% a year
Revenue growth 21 years ⓘMeasures the company's TOTAL revenue from reported annual statements: compound average growth per year (CAGR) from the fiscal year 3, 5 or N years back to the most recent comparable fiscal year. Not per share: buybacks do not change this number, and a merger can appear as a growth jump. Per-share growth (which does include buybacks) is in the value-creation card.
+36.9%
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What shareholders gained per year (last 5 years) ⓘWhat the business itself delivers per year: earnings growth per share plus the dividend yield. This is what you get IF the market keeps valuing the stock the same way: it contains no assumption about the market changing its mind. Computed per share, so buybacks count and a merger does not pass as growth. For a company that pays no dividend it is pure earnings growth per share. Period: earnings growth per share as CAGR over the last 5 reported fiscal years (annual statements), plus the current dividend yield. The start value is the median of the three years around the start, so a single crisis year (a pandemic or a write-down) does not distort the rate.
+9.9%
Earnings growth per share plus dividend.
Earnings per share, growth per year+0.0%
Dividend (yield on the price)9.9%
Pace: 5 vs 10 years ⓘTwo data points, not a trend model: earnings growth per share over the last 5 fiscal years against the last 10. Labelled "steady" when both rates are within 3 percentage points of each other, otherwise picking up or flattening. Shown only when ten years of history exist.0.0% vs 2.1%, steady
Profit margin 2020 to 2025 ⓘOperating margin then vs now, from reported annual statements. A falling margin after a boom year is the classic peak-earnings signal: the growth rate then leans on an inflated base.93% → 70%
Pace: the 5-year rate starts in 2020 (pandemic)
Growth Forecast
A lot of optimism in the price
The price assumes less growth than the company has delivered so far and more than analysts expect.
What the price assumes ⓘThis turns our valuation around: instead of asking what the share is worth, it asks what growth the current price requires. It uses the cash the company keeps after all spending (free cash flow), the same discount rate as our models, five years of growth, then slowing evenly to 2 % a year by year ten. Compared with the analysts' sales forecasts extended to the same five years (at least three analysts, for context only, it does not enter the Fair Value): within 3 percentage points counts as "in line" (amber), below that little optimism (green), above that a lot of optimism (red).
+8.1%
Yearly growth needed for the next five years to justify today's price.
What forecasts expect ⓘAnalysts publish sales forecasts for the next two fiscal years. For the years after that, growth slows evenly to 2 % a year by year ten (2 % is the long-run rate our models use). Projected years are marked as such.
+4.3%
Yearly sales growth analysts expect, extended to five years.
After inflation (USA: IMF forecast 2.4% a year to 2030, 3.1% from 2016 to 2025) that is about +5.6% a year for the price and +1.9% for the forecasts.
News mood ⓘNews mood, the average tone of recent news (95 articles), rated against how stocks are usually covered. 🚀 Hype = unusually upbeat · 🙂 Positive = above average · 😐 Neutral = typical · 🙁 Negative = below average · 😨 Very negative = unusually downbeat. It reflects the tone of coverage, not our valuation.Positive
Recent news coverage is more positive than average.
AI conclusion: Limited public evidence of a durable moat remains the main weakness in this competitive lending sector, while relatively stable credit performance provides the key strength.
Main risk: Generative AI could disrupt software companies in its portfolio, reducing their repayment capacity and demand for its middle-market lending.
Bull case: The company could leverage its origination scale and selective underwriting to finance AI-resilient or AI-enhanced businesses, preserving portfolio stability.
Bear case: Widespread AI disruption among software borrowers could elevate defaults, impairing its ability to originate and hold loans under BDC constraints.
Ares Capital has seen non-accrual loans rise to 2.4 percent of its portfolio at amortized cost. This remains below the company's historical average since the financial crisis, though private credit faces wider pressures. Our models currently see it as undervalued. With earnings due later this month, will the credit quality trend stabilize or point to more normalization ahead?
Compare Ares Capital Corporation with another stock
Price, fair value, quality and upside side by side.
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Peer GroupⓘHow this stock ranks against its industry: the green marker is this stock, the band is the typical 25–75% peer range, and the tick is the median.Asset Management · 593 stocks
Beats the industry median on 5/15 measures
Overall it trails its industry peers.
Valuation
Quality Score54 · Below median
Fair Value upside+47.9% · Above median
Profitability
Return on equity (12 months)6.2% · Below median
Return on assets4.2% · Above median
Net margin (12 months)28.4% · Below median
Operating margin (12 months)72.7% · Above median
Growth and dividend
Revenue growth (quarter YoY)−2.4% · Below median
Dividend yield (12 months)9.9% · Top 25%
Balance sheet
Debt / equity0.85× · Highest 25%
Valuation Multiplesvs Asset Management median · lower = cheaper
For bloggers, editors and developers: paste this into your site or blog (a “Custom HTML” block in WordPress), it shows the current fair value and links back here. Free, plain HTML, and welcome. Full data streams (CSV/JSON) at /developers.
Cite: Fair Value Calculator (2026). "Ares Capital Corporation Fair Value". https://www.fairvalue-calculator.com/stock/ARCC
Frequently asked questions
Is Ares Capital Corporation (ARCC) overvalued or undervalued?
As of Nov 5, 2026, our model estimates a fair value of $28.61 versus a price of $19.35, about +48% upside (undervalued).
What is the fair value of ARCC?
Our model-based fair value for Ares Capital Corporation is $28.61 (as of Nov 5, 2026), built from audited fundamentals. The current price: $19.35.
What is the quality score of ARCC?
Ares Capital Corporation has a Quality Score of 54/100. It measures business quality (profitability, growth, cash flow, balance-sheet strength, investment discipline, share issuance). Market factors such as price momentum and volatility do not enter the number; they are shown separately in the detail view.
What is the price target for Ares Capital Corporation (ARCC)?
Our model-based price target is the fair value of $28.61 (as of Nov 5, 2026) from 12 valuation models. Cautious scenario $17.44, optimistic scenario $54.76. It is a calculation from audited fundamentals, not an analyst target.
What is the Ares Capital Corporation stock forecast for 2026?
Our models put fair value at $28.61, about +48% upside versus a price of $19.35 (undervalued). Cautious scenario $17.44, optimistic scenario $54.76. The calculation is refreshed regularly with new filings.
What is the revenue of Ares Capital Corporation (ARCC)?
Ares Capital Corporation reported trailing-twelve-month revenue of about $3.1B (latest available figure, as of Nov 5, 2026).
Does Ares Capital Corporation pay a dividend?
Ares Capital Corporation currently shows a dividend yield of 9.92% relative to its recent price (as of Nov 5, 2026).
What growth is priced into Ares Capital Corporation (ARCC)?
For today's price to be fair in a discounted-cash-flow model, Ares Capital Corporation would have to grow free cash flow by +8.1 % per year for five years (discount rate 8.5 %, then slowing evenly to 2 % perpetual growth by year ten). Over the last 5 years revenue grew +42.2 % per year. As of Nov 5, 2026.
What discount rate (WACC) does the fair value of ARCC use?
Our models discount Ares Capital Corporation at 8.5 %: a base by market capitalisation (large), damped by beta 0.66, country premium for USA. The same rate applies in all 26 models.
What is a reverse DCF?
A reverse DCF turns the usual calculation around. Instead of deriving a value from assumptions, it takes today's price as given and asks: what free-cash-flow growth would a company have to deliver for exactly this price to be fair? The result is not a forecast but the expectation already priced in. For Ares Capital Corporation that is +8.1 % per year a year over ten years, using the same discount rate (8.5 %) and the same formula as our fair value.
How much growth has Ares Capital Corporation (ARCC) delivered so far?
Over the past 5 years revenue at Ares Capital Corporation grew +42.2 % a year. The price currently implies +8.1 % per year free-cash-flow growth a year. Comparing the two shows how much confidence is in the price: if it demands more than has been delivered, the business has to accelerate for the maths to work.
How fast is the sector of Ares Capital Corporation (ARCC) growing?
The median revenue growth in the sector is +9.4 % a year. That is the yardstick for the growth priced into Ares Capital Corporation (+8.1 % per year a year): it shows whether the expectation is within the usual range or beyond it.
What is the free cash flow yield of Ares Capital Corporation (ARCC)?
The free-cash-flow yield on the price is 8.22 %: that much free cash flow Ares Capital Corporation produces per unit of market value. When it exceeds the discount rate of our models (8.5 %), the business already earns more than its cost of capital demands, and the price needs little additional growth.
What is the intrinsic value of Ares Capital Corporation (ARCC)?
Intrinsic value and fair value mean the same thing: what the business is worth on its numbers, independent of the share price. For Ares Capital Corporation it is $28.61 per share (as of Nov 5, 2026), against a price of $19.35. It is the blended result of 12 valuation models (cash flow, earnings, asset, dividend).
Is Ares Capital Corporation stock overvalued or undervalued in 2026?
As of Nov 5, 2026, ARCC trades below its calculated fair value: price $19.35, fair value $28.61, a gap of about +48% (undervalued). The calculation is refreshed with each new quarterly report, so the verdict can change during the year.
Is fair value the same as the market price of ARCC?
No. The price is what the market pays today ($19.35); the fair value is what the company's own numbers justify ($28.61). For Ares Capital Corporation the two are $9.26 per share apart. That gap is exactly why we show both numbers side by side.
How much is Ares Capital Corporation worth?
The market values Ares Capital Corporation at about $13.9B (market capitalisation, as of Nov 5, 2026). Per share that is $19.35; our models calculate a fair value of $28.61 per share.
What do the bullish and bearish scenarios say about ARCC?
Our models span a range for Ares Capital Corporation: cautious scenario $17.44, base $28.61, optimistic $54.76 per share (as of Nov 5, 2026, price $19.35). The range comes from different growth and margin assumptions, not from analyst opinions.
What is the P/E ratio of ARCC?
Ares Capital Corporation trades at a price-to-earnings ratio of 15.9 (as of Nov 5, 2026). A P/E on its own says little: it compares the price with ONE year of profit, while our fair value of $28.61 is built from several models across several years. Median P/E at fiscal year-end, 10 fiscal years (2016 to 2025), reported earnings: 10.0. Other multiples: PEG 3.7, P/B 1.0, P/S 4.5, EV/EBITDA 11.5.
What is the PEG ratio of ARCC?
The PEG ratio of Ares Capital Corporation is 3.72 (P/E divided by earnings growth, as of Nov 5, 2026). That is above 1, so the growth is already paid for in the price.
How solid is the balance sheet of Ares Capital Corporation (ARCC)?
Balance-sheet figures for Ares Capital Corporation (as of Nov 5, 2026): return on equity 6.2%, debt of 0.85 per unit of equity. They feed the Quality Score of 54/100, which measures business quality independently of the share price.
How far is ARCC from its 52-week high?
Ares Capital Corporation trades at $19.35, about 4% below its 52-week high of $20.19 and 14% above the low of $17.02 (as of Nov 5, 2026). Distance from the high says nothing about value: that is what the fair value of $28.61 is for.
Which stocks are comparable to Ares Capital Corporation?
From the same area (Financial Services) we also value Blackstone Inc, Brookfield Corporation, KKR & Co, Apollo Global Management, Inc, among others. Each of them has its own fair-value calculation on this site using the same models, so the comparison is like for like.
Is Ares Capital Corporation stock attractive at the current price?
The data as of Nov 5, 2026: price $19.35, calculated fair value $28.61 (+48%), Quality Score 54/100, from 12 models. Whether that fits your horizon and risk tolerance is your call. We provide the calculation, not investment advice.
How is the fair value of ARCC calculated?
We run Ares Capital Corporation through 12 models from four families: discounted cash flow, earnings models, asset and balance-sheet models, and dividend models. Every model gets the same audited fundamentals; the result is the weighted average of $28.61, with the spread shown as a cautious and an optimistic scenario.
Is it still worth investing in stocks now?
The global stock market currently sits 15.5% above its aggregate fair value. Ares Capital Corporation currently trades 32% below its own fair value, and the market average says nothing about that. An expensive market is no reason to stay out and no reason to buy everything at once: keep a broad savings plan running, buy single stocks only with money you can do without, and hold part of your money liquid while the market is high. The full picture including sectors is on is it worth investing now.
What is the share price of Ares Capital Corporation (ARCC)?
The closing price on Nov 5, 2026 was $19.35. Our model-based fair value is $28.61, about +48% upside (undervalued). We carry closing prices from our data provider, not a live tick.
What should I pay attention to with Ares Capital Corporation right now?
The model range is unusually wide ($17.44 to $54.76). The outcome hinges heavily on assumptions, so read the point estimate with caution. Solid quality (54/100) at a price below fair value, the discount is the argument here, not the business quality. For a financial, book-value and earnings-based methods matter more than a cash-flow DCF, which fits banks and insurers poorly.
Where does the earnings growth of Ares Capital Corporation (ARCC) come from?
Earnings per share at Ares Capital Corporation grew +3.7 % a year from 2014 to 2025. Broken into its drivers: revenue per share +5.6 %, EBIT margin +0.2 %, tax rate −0.1 %, residual (interest, one-offs) −1.9 %. The four rates multiply to the earnings growth rate, they do not add up. Start and end are three-year averages so a single exceptional year does not distort the result.
Key figures of Ares Capital Corporation
How large is the market capitalisation of Ares Capital Corporation (ARCC)?
The market capitalisation of Ares Capital Corporation is $13.9B. The stock-market value of the whole company: share price times number of shares. It is what the market asks for the entire business today.
What is the P/S ratio of Ares Capital Corporation (ARCC)?
The price-to-sales ratio of Ares Capital Corporation is 4.50 (last twelve months). Price to sales: market value relative to yearly revenue. Useful when profit is thin or distorted.
What are the earnings per share of Ares Capital Corporation (ARCC)?
Earnings per share at Ares Capital Corporation are $1.22 (price ÷ EPS = P/E 15.9). Earnings per share over the last twelve months: total profit spread across every single share.
What is the dividend yield of Ares Capital Corporation (ARCC)?
The dividend yield of Ares Capital Corporation is 9.9% (payout 157%). Yearly dividend relative to the share price. 3% pays 3 per 100 invested. Below: how much of profit is used for it.
What is the net margin of Ares Capital Corporation (ARCC)?
The net margin of Ares Capital Corporation is 28.4% (last twelve months). How much of every unit of revenue ends up as profit. 10% means 10 cents of profit per dollar of sales.
What is the return on equity of Ares Capital Corporation (ARCC)?
The return on equity (ROE) of Ares Capital Corporation is 6.2% (last twelve months). Profit relative to shareholders' equity, how efficiently the company works with its owners' money.
What is the EBIT return on assets of Ares Capital Corporation (ARCC)?
On an EBIT basis the return on assets of Ares Capital Corporation is 5.7% (avg 5y). Operating profit (EBIT) relative to everything the company owns, as a multi-year average. It describes the business model rather than one good or bad year.
What is the operating margin of Ares Capital Corporation (ARCC)?
The operating margin of Ares Capital Corporation is 72.7% (last twelve months). Profit from the core business (before interest and taxes) relative to revenue.
How fast is revenue growing at Ares Capital Corporation (ARCC)?
Revenue at Ares Capital Corporation is growing −2.4% versus a year earlier (3y avg +38.0%). How much revenue grew versus a year earlier (YoY). The 3-year average next to it puts the single year in context.
How fast are earnings growing at Ares Capital Corporation (ARCC)?
Earnings per share at Ares Capital Corporation are growing −22.8% versus a year earlier. How much earnings per share grew versus a year earlier.
How much net debt does Ares Capital Corporation (ARCC) carry?
The net debt of Ares Capital Corporation is $15.1B (fiscal year 2025, ≈ 13.2 yrs of FCF). Debt minus cash on hand. The note shows how many years of free cash flow could in theory pay it off.
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Broad data
Nov 5, 2026