Ares Capital Corporation (ARCC) Fair Value & Analysis

Financial Services · US · Market cap $13.5B

A solid business, screening 21% undervalued on our models.

What matters now

• Solid quality (56/100) at a price below fair value, the discount is the argument here, not the business quality.
• For a financial, book-value and earnings-based methods matter more than a cash-flow DCF, which fits banks and insurers poorly.

Price vs Fair Value (5 years)

White line = price, green steps = our fair value per fiscal year, dashed = 300-day average. As of Jul 15, 2026.

How to read this chart

60‑month range $11.16 – $21.10 · fair‑value band $17.80 – $29.67 · the $19.62 price screens below the $23.73 fair value. Green steps = our fair value per fiscal year (point-in-time, no hindsight). Dashed = 300-day average. As of Jul 15, 2026.

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Analysis

Ares Capital Corporation (ARCC) currently trades at $19.62, while our model-based Fair Value estimate is $23.73, implying the stock looks roughly 21.0% undervalued today. We read business quality at 56/100 (solid quality), in the Financial Services sector. Bull case: trading below our estimate, it may offer upside if the fundamentals hold. Bear case: a low price can be a value trap when quality is weak or the data is thin (evidence: high), always confirm before acting.

Over the trailing twelve months, Ares Capital Corporation generated revenue of $3.1B at a net margin of 37.3%. Revenue grew 4.2% year over year. It earns a return on equity of 8.3%. Net debt stands at $15.1B. Fundamentals as of Jul 15, 2026

Our scenario range runs from $17.80 (bear case) to $29.67 (bull case); at $19.62, the current price sits within that range. Bear and bull are the same models run on conservative and optimistic assumptions (margins, growth, valuation multiples), so a plausible valuation range, not a price target. The share trades about 10% below its 52-week high and 13% above its 52-week low, currently below its 200-day average. For context, the median of 10 Financial Services peers we cover trades at -51% fair-value upside, at 21%, ARCC screens cheaper than that median.

Fair Value models

Each model estimates fair value its own way; the Fair Value above is the evidence-weighted blend. Evidence (0–100) measures how completely this model’s inputs are available: well-fed models carry more weight in the blend. The spread across models is intentional, each one stresses a different value driver; dividend models, for instance, come out structurally low when payout is small.

Widest divergence: Growth Earnings ($52.53) versus Growth DCF ($8.14). Highest evidence: Growth DCF (80).

Key figures & financial health

Quality Score breakdown

About the company

Ares Capital Corporation is a business development company specializing in growth capital, acquisition, recapitalization, mezzanine debt, restructurings, rescue financing, and leveraged buyout transactions of middle market companies. It also makes growth capital and general refinancing.

Full company description

Ares Capital Corporation is a business development company specializing in growth capital, acquisition, recapitalization, mezzanine debt, restructurings, rescue financing, and leveraged buyout transactions of middle market companies. It also makes growth capital and general refinancing. It prefers to make investments in companies engaged in sports, media & entertainment, industrials & business services, infrastructure & power, financial institution groups, software & technology, specialty healthcare, consumer, retail & services, energy and the basic and growth manufacturing, consumer products, health care products, and information technology service sectors. The fund will also consider investments in industries such as restaurants, retail, oil and gas, and technology sectors. It invests in the United States based companies. It focuses on investments in Northeast, Mid-Atlantic, Southeast and Southwest regions from its New York office, the Midwest region, from the Chicago office, and the Western region from the Los Angeles office. The fund typically invests between $30 million and $500 million, in companies with an EBITDA between $10 million and $250 million. It makes debt investments between $10 million and $100 million The fund invests through revolvers, first lien loans, warrants, unitranche structures, second lien loans, mezzanine debt, private high yield, junior capital, subordinated debt, and non-control preferred and common equity. The fund also selectively considers third-party-led senior and subordinated debt financings and opportunistically considers the purchase of stressed and discounted debt positions. The fund prefers to be an agent and/or lead the transactions in which it invests. The fund also seeks board representation in its portfolio companies.

Company description, as reported by the company or data provider.

Revenue & earnings trend

FY2021 – FY2025 · reported fiscal years

Ares Capital Corporation reported revenue of $3.1B in FY2025 versus $1.7B in FY2021, a compound +17.0%/yr. Reported net income was $1.3B in FY2025, compounding −4.6%/yr from FY2021.

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Recent news

External third-party headlines (Yahoo Finance, Reuters and others), not an editorial selection.

• ARCC Stock Dips as Q2 Earnings Meet Estimates & Expenses Rise Y/Y Yahoo Finance · Jul 30, 2026
• Ares Capital's Q2 Earnings Call Highlights Market Strength Yahoo Finance · Jul 30, 2026

Peer Group

Asset Management · 963 stocks

How this stock ranks against its industry: the green marker is this stock, the band is the typical 25–75% peer range, and the tick is the median.

Valuation Multiples vs Asset Management median · lower = cheaper

Snowflake

Five quick dimensions, each 0 to 100: VALUE (fair-value potential), FUTURE (revenue growth), PAST (return on equity), HEALTH (low debt), DIVIDEND (yield). Green = this stock, grey = typical sector peer.

Insider activity: 78/100

Values & ESG

Does this company touch areas you may want to avoid? The classification is inferred from sector and industry.

ESG scores are not available for this stock yet. Values and ESG data are contextual and can differ between providers.

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Frequently asked questions

How we calculate Fair Value

Each company is valued through a stack of independent intrinsic-value models (DCF variants, residual-income, multiples and more), blended into one family-balanced consensus and weighted by how much trustworthy data backs it. A separate quality layer scores the fundamentals. Every input is real reported data, nothing guessed.