Cincinnati Financial Corporation (CINF) fair value: what the stock is really worth
As of Nov 5, 2026: fair value (intrinsic value) of Cincinnati Financial Corporation stock $144, price $188, that is 23.4% below the price, quality 68 out of 100. Rating: overvalued. Calculated from audited financials with 6 of our 26 valuation models and 37 quality factors, updated daily.
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Price vs Fair Value
White line = price, green steps = our fair value per fiscal year. As of Nov 6, 2026.
How to read this chart
60‑month range $80.99 – $190.94 · fair‑value band $110.06 – $209.56 · the $188.31 price screens above the $144.19 fair value. Green steps = our fair value per fiscal year (point-in-time, no hindsight). As of Nov 6, 2026.
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Cincinnati Financial Corporation provides property casualty insurance products in the United States. The company operates through five segments: Commercial Lines Insurance, Personal Lines Insurance, Excess and Surplus Lines Insurance, Life Insurance, and Investments.
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The Commercial Lines Insurance segment offers coverage for commercial casualty and property, commercial auto, and workers' compensation. This segment also provides contract and commercial surety bonds, and fidelity bonds; management liability; and machinery and equipment insurance products.
The Personal Lines Insurance segment offers personal auto; homeowner; and other personal lines insurance, such as dwelling fire, inland marine, personal umbrella liability, and watercraft coverages.
The Excess and Surplus Lines Insurance segment offers commercial casualty insurance that covers businesses for third-party liability from accidents occurring on their premises or arising out of their operations, such as injuries sustained from products, as well as other coverages comprising miscellaneous errors and omissions, professional liability, and excess liability; and commercial property insurance, which insures buildings, inventory, equipment, and business income from loss or damage due to various causes, such as fire, wind, hail, water, theft, and vandalism.
The Life Insurance segment provides term life insurance; universal life insurance; and worksite and whole life insurance products, as well as annuities.
The Investments segment invests in fixed-maturity investments, including taxable and tax-exempt bonds, and redeemable preferred stocks; and equity investments comprising common and nonredeemable preferred stocks.
The company also offers commercial leasing and financing services; and insurance brokerage services. The company was founded in 1950 and is headquartered in Fairfield, Ohio.
Stock analysis
Cincinnati Financial Corporation (CINF) currently trades at $188.31, while our model-based Fair Value estimate is $144.19, 23% below the price, so the stock looks overvalued today.
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Valuation
Bull case: the Economic Profit group reads highest at a median of $144.19 per share, and 1 of the 6 models we run sit above the $188.31 price.
Bear case: the Dividend Discount group reads lowest at $61.89, and 5 of the 6 models stay below the price. Data coverage for this calculation is high.
Scenario range: $110.06 (bear) to $209.56 (bull), the price of $188.31 sits inside it. Bear and bull are the same models on cautious and optimistic assumptions, a range, not a price target.
Quality & growth
The Quality Score stands at 68/100 (solid quality), in the Financial Services sector.
Mixed Growth: Revenue is growing, but margins or cash flow do not fully confirm the trend.
Cincinnati Financial Corporation reported revenue of $12.6B in FY2025 versus $9.6B in FY2021, a compound +7.0%/yr. Reported net income was $2.4B in FY2025, compounding −5.2%/yr from FY2021.
Key figures
Market cap $29.4B Large · P/E ratio 11.1 · P/S ratio 2.10 · EPS (TTM) $17.04 · Dividend yield 1.9% · Net margin 23.8% · Return on equity 21.5% · Return on assets (EBIT) 6.3%.
Competitive moat
Our AI-assisted moat analysis scores the competitive advantage at 77 out of 100 (low confidence).
What moves the price
The share trades about 1% below its 52-week high and 24% above its 52-week low, currently above its 200-day average.
For context, the median of 10 Financial Services peers we cover trades at −31% fair-value upside, at −23%, CINF screens cheaper than that median.
Fair Value models
Bear$110.06Fair Value $144.19Bull$209.56
Price $188.31 · Downside -23.4%
Model ⓘEach model values the company its own way (discounted cash flow, earnings, assets, dividends). The fair value above starts from their evidence-weighted blend, not from a single model. In cyclical trough or peak years, after dilution or a stock split it is adjusted afterwards, so it can sit above or below the models. Based on fiscal year 2025 figures (about 10 months old). Earnings retained since then ($11.40 per share) are deliberately not added.Bear ⓘBear = the cautious scenario: the same model computed with conservative anchors (lower growth, margins and valuation multiples). Together with Bull it frames a plausible valuation range, not a price target.BaseBull ⓘBull = the optimistic scenario: the same model computed with favourable anchors (higher growth, margins and valuation multiples). Together with Bear it frames a plausible valuation range, not a price target. If a model's bull case is above four times its base value, the table shows that limit with a > sign (like the overall Bull above): beyond it no assumption holds.Coverage ⓘCoverage = how well-backed THIS model's estimate is for this stock (0–100): how complete and reliable its input data are, and how well the model fits the company. The final Fair Value is an evidence-weighted blend, so better-evidenced models count more. Green ≥70, amber 50–69, grey below 50.
In the last 6 months, one officer or director bought shares worth $171,640, on Aug 25, 2026. Over the same period, one person sold shares worth $1.3M.
BuyDirk J DebbinkDirector2× since Feb 11, 2026: 2,000 shares, avg. $167.11$334,220Aug 25, 2026
SaleCharles Odell SchiffDirector7,600 shares at $175.40$1.3MAug 3, 2026
BuyEdward Scott WilkinsDirector140 shares at $163.77$22,928Dec 3, 2025
Plus 5 other filings such as grants, option exercises or tax withholding. They are not market purchases or sales.
Sales are often planned (taxes, diversification, 10b5-1 plans). Purchases with their own money are seen as the stronger sign. For information only: not part of the quality score or Fair Value.
Growth Quality ⓘGrowth is valuable only when reinvestment earns attractive returns (Aswath Damodaran): sustainable growth depends on return on capital, reinvestment and efficiency. Basis: total company revenue over the periods shown on the cards (3Y/5Y/all years), not per share, so a merger can show up as a growth jump; per-share earnings growth is in the value-creation card.93/100
Revenue is growing, but margins or cash flow do not fully confirm the trend.
Revenue growth 1 year
+11.4%
Revenue growth 3 years ⓘMeasures the company's TOTAL revenue from reported annual statements: compound average growth per year (CAGR) from the fiscal year 3, 5 or N years back to the most recent comparable fiscal year. Not per share: buybacks do not change this number, and a merger can appear as a growth jump. Per-share growth (which does include buybacks) is in the value-creation card.
+24.4%
Revenue growth 5 years ⓘMeasures the company's TOTAL revenue from reported annual statements: compound average growth per year (CAGR) from the fiscal year 3, 5 or N years back to the most recent comparable fiscal year. Not per share: buybacks do not change this number, and a merger can appear as a growth jump. Per-share growth (which does include buybacks) is in the value-creation card.
+10.9%
Start year 2020 (pandemic). Over 10 years: +9.4% a year
Revenue growth 40 years ⓘMeasures the company's TOTAL revenue from reported annual statements: compound average growth per year (CAGR) from the fiscal year 3, 5 or N years back to the most recent comparable fiscal year. Not per share: buybacks do not change this number, and a merger can appear as a growth jump. Per-share growth (which does include buybacks) is in the value-creation card.
+7.9%
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What shareholders gained per year (last 5 years) ⓘWhat the business itself delivers per year: earnings growth per share plus the dividend yield. This is what you get IF the market keeps valuing the stock the same way: it contains no assumption about the market changing its mind. Computed per share, so buybacks count and a merger does not pass as growth. For a company that pays no dividend it is pure earnings growth per share. Period: earnings growth per share as CAGR over the last 5 reported fiscal years (annual statements), plus the current dividend yield. The start value is the median of the three years around the start, so a single crisis year (a pandemic or a write-down) does not distort the rate. Basis: adjusted.
−1.3%
Earnings growth per share plus dividend.
Earnings per share, growth per year−3.2%
Dividend (yield on the price)1.9%
Pace: 5 vs 10 years ⓘTwo data points, not a trend model: earnings growth per share over the last 5 fiscal years against the last 10. Labelled "steady" when both rates are within 3 percentage points of each other, otherwise picking up or flattening. Shown only when ten years of history exist.4.6% vs 15.6%, slowing
Profit margin 2020 to 2025 ⓘOperating margin then vs now, from reported annual statements. A falling margin after a boom year is the classic peak-earnings signal: the growth rate then leans on an inflated base.20% → 24%
Pace: the 5-year rate starts in 2020 (pandemic)
Growth Forecast
Little optimism in the price
The price assumes less growth than the company has delivered so far and less than analysts expect.
What the price assumes ⓘThis turns our valuation around: instead of asking what the share is worth, it asks what growth the current price requires. It uses the cash the company keeps after all spending (free cash flow), the same discount rate as our models, five years of growth, then slowing evenly to 2 % a year by year ten. Compared with the analysts' sales forecasts extended to the same five years (at least three analysts, for context only, it does not enter the Fair Value): within 3 percentage points counts as "in line" (amber), below that little optimism (green), above that a lot of optimism (red).
−25.3%
The company could shrink this much every year for the next five years and today's price would still be justified.
What forecasts expect ⓘAnalysts publish sales forecasts for the next two fiscal years. For the years after that, growth slows evenly to 2 % a year by year ten (2 % is the long-run rate our models use). Projected years are marked as such.
+0.0%
Yearly sales growth analysts expect, extended to five years.
After inflation (USA: IMF forecast 2.4% a year to 2030, 3.1% from 2016 to 2025) that is about −27.1% a year for the price and −2.3% for the forecasts.
News mood ⓘNews mood, the average tone of recent news (97 articles), rated against how stocks are usually covered. 🚀 Hype = unusually upbeat · 🙂 Positive = above average · 😐 Neutral = typical · 🙁 Negative = below average · 😨 Very negative = unusually downbeat. It reflects the tone of coverage, not our valuation.Neutral
Recent news coverage is roughly neutral, about typical for how stocks are covered.
AI conclusion: The business draws moderate strength from its agency distribution in property and casualty insurance, yet thin evidence of a durable moat leaves results exposed to equity market swings through the investment portfolio.
Main risk: Actions by insurance regulators could impose new obligations, limit the ability to set adequate rates, restrict policy cancellations or alter agent compensation and thereby squeeze margins or constrain operations.
Bull case: The company could expand its proprietary AI assistants and data capabilities to achieve superior pricing precision and operational efficiency while strengthening agent relationships.
Bear case: If regulatory constraints tighten or AI adoption for pricing lags, underwriting margins could compress and growth in targeted commercial and personal lines could slow.
Cincinnati Financial draws much of its recent earnings strength from large unrealized gains on equity investments held in its portfolio. This exposure links results tightly to market swings, even as the insurance operations focus on premium growth and disciplined underwriting. Our models see the stock as overvalued. Will the investment side keep lifting performance more than it adds volatility, or must the core business deliver steadier gains?
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Peer GroupⓘHow this stock ranks against its industry: the green marker is this stock, the band is the typical 25–75% peer range, and the tick is the median.Insurance - Property & Casualty · 100 stocks
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Is Cincinnati Financial Corporation (CINF) overvalued or undervalued?
As of Nov 6, 2026, our model estimates a fair value of $144.19 versus a price of $188.31, about 23% lower (overvalued).
What is the fair value of CINF?
Our model-based fair value for Cincinnati Financial Corporation is $144.19 (as of Nov 6, 2026), built from audited fundamentals. The current price: $188.31.
What is the quality score of CINF?
Cincinnati Financial Corporation has a Quality Score of 68/100. It measures business quality (profitability, growth, cash flow, balance-sheet strength, investment discipline, share issuance). Market factors such as price momentum and volatility do not enter the number; they are shown separately in the detail view.
What is the price target for Cincinnati Financial Corporation (CINF)?
Our model-based price target is the fair value of $144.19 (as of Nov 6, 2026) from 6 valuation models. Cautious scenario $110.06, optimistic scenario $209.56. It is a calculation from audited fundamentals, not an analyst target.
What is the Cincinnati Financial Corporation stock forecast for 2026?
Our models put fair value at $144.19, about 23% lower versus a price of $188.31 (overvalued). Cautious scenario $110.06, optimistic scenario $209.56. The calculation is refreshed regularly with new filings.
What is the revenue of Cincinnati Financial Corporation (CINF)?
Cincinnati Financial Corporation reported trailing-twelve-month revenue of about $14.0B (latest available figure, as of Nov 6, 2026).
Does Cincinnati Financial Corporation pay a dividend?
Cincinnati Financial Corporation currently shows a dividend yield of 1.92% relative to its recent price (as of Nov 6, 2026).
What growth is priced into Cincinnati Financial Corporation (CINF)?
For today's price to be fair in a discounted-cash-flow model, Cincinnati Financial Corporation would have to grow free cash flow by -25.3 % per year for five years (discount rate 8.1 %, then slowing evenly to 2 % perpetual growth by year ten). Over the last 5 years revenue grew +10.9 % per year. As of Nov 6, 2026.
What discount rate (WACC) does the fair value of CINF use?
Our models discount Cincinnati Financial Corporation at 8.1 %: a base by market capitalisation (large), damped by beta 0.53, country premium for USA. The same rate applies in all 26 models.
What is a reverse DCF?
A reverse DCF turns the usual calculation around. Instead of deriving a value from assumptions, it takes today's price as given and asks: what free-cash-flow growth would a company have to deliver for exactly this price to be fair? The result is not a forecast but the expectation already priced in. For Cincinnati Financial Corporation that is -25.3 % per year a year over ten years, using the same discount rate (8.1 %) and the same formula as our fair value.
How much growth has Cincinnati Financial Corporation (CINF) delivered so far?
Over the past 5 years revenue at Cincinnati Financial Corporation grew +10.9 % a year. The price currently implies -25.3 % per year free-cash-flow growth a year. Comparing the two shows how much confidence is in the price: if it demands more than has been delivered, the business has to accelerate for the maths to work.
How fast is the sector of Cincinnati Financial Corporation (CINF) growing?
The median revenue growth in the sector is +9.4 % a year. That is the yardstick for the growth priced into Cincinnati Financial Corporation (-25.3 % per year a year): it shows whether the expectation is within the usual range or beyond it.
What is the free cash flow yield of Cincinnati Financial Corporation (CINF)?
The free-cash-flow yield on the price is 10.53 %: that much free cash flow Cincinnati Financial Corporation produces per unit of market value. When it exceeds the discount rate of our models (8.1 %), the business already earns more than its cost of capital demands, and the price needs little additional growth.
What is the intrinsic value of Cincinnati Financial Corporation (CINF)?
Intrinsic value and fair value mean the same thing: what the business is worth on its numbers, independent of the share price. For Cincinnati Financial Corporation it is $144.19 per share (as of Nov 6, 2026), against a price of $188.31. It is the blended result of 6 valuation models (cash flow, earnings, asset, dividend).
Is Cincinnati Financial Corporation stock overvalued or undervalued in 2026?
As of Nov 6, 2026, CINF trades above its calculated fair value: price $188.31, fair value $144.19, a gap of about −23% (overvalued). The calculation is refreshed with each new quarterly report, so the verdict can change during the year.
Is fair value the same as the market price of CINF?
No. The price is what the market pays today ($188.31); the fair value is what the company's own numbers justify ($144.19). For Cincinnati Financial Corporation the two are $44.12 per share apart. That gap is exactly why we show both numbers side by side.
How much is Cincinnati Financial Corporation worth?
The market values Cincinnati Financial Corporation at about $29.4B (market capitalisation, as of Nov 6, 2026). Per share that is $188.31; our models calculate a fair value of $144.19 per share.
What do the bullish and bearish scenarios say about CINF?
Our models span a range for Cincinnati Financial Corporation: cautious scenario $110.06, base $144.19, optimistic $209.56 per share (as of Nov 6, 2026, price $188.31). The range comes from different growth and margin assumptions, not from analyst opinions.
What is the P/E ratio of CINF?
Cincinnati Financial Corporation trades at a price-to-earnings ratio of 11.1 (as of Nov 6, 2026). A P/E on its own says little: it compares the price with ONE year of profit, while our fair value of $144.19 is built from several models across several years. Median P/E at fiscal year-end, 8 fiscal years (2016 to 2025), reported earnings, 4 of the years ex one-offs: 10.3. Other multiples: PEG 2.2, P/B 1.9, P/S 2.1, EV/EBITDA 6.6.
What is the PEG ratio of CINF?
The PEG ratio of Cincinnati Financial Corporation is 2.19 (P/E divided by earnings growth, as of Nov 6, 2026). That is above 1, so the growth is already paid for in the price.
How solid is the balance sheet of Cincinnati Financial Corporation (CINF)?
Balance-sheet figures for Cincinnati Financial Corporation (as of Nov 6, 2026): return on equity 21.5%, debt of 0.05 per unit of equity. They feed the Quality Score of 68/100, which measures business quality independently of the share price.
How far is CINF from its 52-week high?
Cincinnati Financial Corporation trades at $188.31, about 1% below its 52-week high of $190.94 and 24% above the low of $151.98 (as of Nov 5, 2026). Distance from the high says nothing about value: that is what the fair value of $144.19 is for.
Which stocks are comparable to Cincinnati Financial Corporation?
From the same area (Financial Services) we also value Chubb Limited, The Progressive Corporation, The Travelers Companies, Inc, The Allstate Corporation, among others. Each of them has its own fair-value calculation on this site using the same models, so the comparison is like for like.
Is Cincinnati Financial Corporation stock attractive at the current price?
The data as of Nov 6, 2026: price $188.31, calculated fair value $144.19 (−23%), Quality Score 68/100, from 6 models. Whether that fits your horizon and risk tolerance is your call. We provide the calculation, not investment advice.
How is the fair value of CINF calculated?
We run Cincinnati Financial Corporation through 6 models from four families: discounted cash flow, earnings models, asset and balance-sheet models, and dividend models. Every model gets the same audited fundamentals; the result is the weighted average of $144.19, with the spread shown as a cautious and an optimistic scenario.
Is it still worth investing in stocks now?
The global stock market currently sits 15.5% above its aggregate fair value. Cincinnati Financial Corporation itself currently trades above fair value. An expensive market is no reason to stay out and no reason to buy everything at once: keep a broad savings plan running, buy single stocks only with money you can do without, and hold part of your money liquid while the market is high. The full picture including sectors is on is it worth investing now.
What is the share price of Cincinnati Financial Corporation (CINF)?
The closing price on Nov 5, 2026 was $188.31. Our model-based fair value is $144.19, about 23% lower (overvalued). We carry closing prices from our data provider, not a live tick.
What should I pay attention to with Cincinnati Financial Corporation right now?
Solid but not exceptional quality (68/100) and above fair value, neither a clear bargain nor a standout compounder. A fairly wide model range ($110.06 to $209.56) leaves room in how you read the outcome. For a financial, book-value and earnings-based methods matter more than a cash-flow DCF, which fits banks and insurers poorly.
Where does the earnings growth of Cincinnati Financial Corporation (CINF) come from?
Earnings per share at Cincinnati Financial Corporation grew +16.4 % a year from 2014 to 2025. Broken into its drivers: revenue per share +9.7 %, EBIT margin +4.9 %, tax rate +1.2 %, residual (interest, one-offs) +0.0 %. The four rates multiply to the earnings growth rate, they do not add up. Start and end are three-year averages so a single exceptional year does not distort the result.
Key figures of Cincinnati Financial Corporation
How large is the market capitalisation of Cincinnati Financial Corporation (CINF)?
The market capitalisation of Cincinnati Financial Corporation is $29.4B. The stock-market value of the whole company: share price times number of shares. It is what the market asks for the entire business today.
What is the P/S ratio of Cincinnati Financial Corporation (CINF)?
The price-to-sales ratio of Cincinnati Financial Corporation is 2.10 (last twelve months). Price to sales: market value relative to yearly revenue. Useful when profit is thin or distorted.
What are the earnings per share of Cincinnati Financial Corporation (CINF)?
Earnings per share at Cincinnati Financial Corporation are $17.04 (price ÷ EPS = P/E 11.1). Earnings per share over the last twelve months: total profit spread across every single share.
What is the dividend yield of Cincinnati Financial Corporation (CINF)?
The dividend yield of Cincinnati Financial Corporation is 1.9% (payout 21.2%). Yearly dividend relative to the share price. 3% pays 3 per 100 invested. Below: how much of profit is used for it.
What is the net margin of Cincinnati Financial Corporation (CINF)?
The net margin of Cincinnati Financial Corporation is 23.8% (last twelve months). How much of every unit of revenue ends up as profit. 10% means 10 cents of profit per dollar of sales.
What is the return on equity of Cincinnati Financial Corporation (CINF)?
The return on equity (ROE) of Cincinnati Financial Corporation is 21.5% (last twelve months). Profit relative to shareholders' equity, how efficiently the company works with its owners' money.
What is the EBIT return on assets of Cincinnati Financial Corporation (CINF)?
On an EBIT basis the return on assets of Cincinnati Financial Corporation is 6.3% (avg 5y). Operating profit (EBIT) relative to everything the company owns, as a multi-year average. It describes the business model rather than one good or bad year.
What is the operating margin of Cincinnati Financial Corporation (CINF)?
The operating margin of Cincinnati Financial Corporation is 37.2% (last twelve months). Profit from the core business (before interest and taxes) relative to revenue.
How fast is revenue growing at Cincinnati Financial Corporation (CINF)?
Revenue at Cincinnati Financial Corporation is growing +31.6% versus a year earlier (3y avg +24.4%). How much revenue grew versus a year earlier (YoY). The 3-year average next to it puts the single year in context.
How fast are earnings growing at Cincinnati Financial Corporation (CINF)?
Earnings per share at Cincinnati Financial Corporation are growing +85.5% versus a year earlier. How much earnings per share grew versus a year earlier.
How much net cash does Cincinnati Financial Corporation (CINF) hold?
Cincinnati Financial Corporation holds more cash than debt, $545M net (fiscal year 2025). The company holds more cash than debt, a safety cushion.
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Broad data
Nov 6, 2026