Markel Corporation (MKL) fair value: what the stock is really worth
We calculate from audited financials what Markel Corporation is really worth. The fair value tells you whether the price is too high or too low, the quality score (0 to 100) how solid the business behind it is. 26 models, 37 quality factors, updated daily.
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Price vs Fair Value
White line = price, green steps = our fair value per fiscal year, dashed = 300-day average. As of Sep 18, 2026.
How to read this chart
60‑month range $1,070 – $2,192 · fair‑value band $1,377 – $2,300 · the $1,776 price screens above the $1,627 fair value. Green steps = our fair value per fiscal year (point-in-time, no hindsight). Dashed = 300-day average. As of Sep 18, 2026.
Markel Group Inc. engages in the insurance business in the United States, the United Kingdom, Bermuda, Germany, rest of the European Union, Canada, and the Asia Pacific. It operates through Markel Insurance, Industrial, Financial, and Consumer and Other segments.
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Markel Group Inc. engages in the insurance business in the United States, the United Kingdom, Bermuda, Germany, rest of the European Union, Canada, and the Asia Pacific. It operates through Markel Insurance, Industrial, Financial, and Consumer and Other segments. The company offers general and professional liability, specialty programs, workers' compensation, and marine and energy insurance; personal lines insurance, such as property coverage for homeowners; property insurance coverages, including fire, windstorm, hail, water damage, and catastrophe-exposed property risks, such as earthquake and wind; and credit and surety products. It also distributes exterior building products, such as siding, windows, doors, roofing, and gutters; invests in asset and wealth management companies; engages in the homebuilding of single-family homes, townhouses, and condominiums; designs and provides leather handbags and accessories; owns and operates manufactured housing communities; and sponsors teachers for placement. In addition, the company offers structural and architectural precast concrete; ornamental plants; industrial bakery equipment; over-the-road car-hauling equipment, such as trailers; cutter suction and auger dredges; and laminated oak and composite flooring for trailers. Further, it provides fire protection, life safety, and low-voltage solutions; heavy lift crawler cranes; erosion control and stormwater management; gas containment and transportation equipment; wall panel systems and dorm room furniture; insurance-linked securities investment and insurance management; equipment leasing; fronting and automobile collateral protection coverage; information technology consulting; data collection and pricing intelligence solutions; and concierge healthcare membership services. The company was formerly known as Markel Corporation and changed its name to Markel Group Inc. in May 2023. Markel Group Inc. was founded in 1930 and is headquartered in Glen Allen, Virginia.
Stock analysis
Markel Corporation (MKL) currently trades at $1,776, while our model-based Fair Value estimate is $1,627, implying the stock looks roughly 9.2% fairly valued today.
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Valuation
Bull case: the Multiples group reads highest at a median of $2,081 per share, and 2 of the 6 models we run sit above the $1,776 price.
Bear case: the Dividend Discount group reads lowest at $795.01, and 4 of the 6 models stay below the price. Evidence for this calculation is high.
Scenario range: $1,377 (bear) to $2,300 (bull), the price of $1,776 sits inside it. Bear and bull are the same models on cautious and optimistic assumptions, a range, not a price target.
Quality & growth
The Quality Score stands at 60/100 (solid quality), in the Financial Services sector.
Mixed Growth: Revenue is growing, but margins or cash flow do not fully confirm the trend.
Markel Corporation reported revenue of $16.6B in FY2025 versus $12.9B in FY2021, a compound +6.5%/yr. Reported net income was $2.1B in FY2025, compounding −3.4%/yr from FY2021.
Key figures
Market cap $24.7B · P/E ratio 12.9 · P/S ratio 1.63 · EPS (TTM) $138.18 · Dividend yield 2.8% · Net margin 12.7% · Return on equity 10.0% · Return on assets (EBIT) 4.8%.
Competitive moat
Our AI-assisted moat analysis scores the competitive advantage at 52 out of 100 (low confidence).
What moves the price
The share trades about 20% below its 52-week high and 3% above its 52-week low, currently below its 200-day average.
For context, the median of 10 Financial Services peers we cover trades at −14% fair-value upside, at −8%, MKL screens cheaper than that median.
Fair Value models
Bear $1,377Fair Value $1,627Bull $2,300
Model ⓘEach model values the company its own way (discounted cash flow, earnings, assets, dividends). The fair value above is their evidence-weighted blend, not the output of a single model. Based on fiscal year 2025 figures (about 9 months old). Earnings retained since then ($100.58 per share) are deliberately not added.Bear ⓘBear = the cautious scenario: the same model computed with conservative anchors (lower growth, margins and valuation multiples). Together with Bull it frames a plausible valuation range, not a price target.BaseBull ⓘBull = the optimistic scenario: the same model computed with favourable anchors (higher growth, margins and valuation multiples). Together with Bear it frames a plausible valuation range, not a price target.Evidence ⓘEvidence = how well-backed THIS model's estimate is for this stock (0–100): how complete and reliable its input data are, and how well the model fits the company. The final Fair Value is an evidence-weighted blend, so better-evidenced models count more. Green ≥70, amber 50–69, grey below 50.
Growth Quality ⓘGrowth is valuable only when reinvestment earns attractive returns (Aswath Damodaran): sustainable growth depends on return on capital, reinvestment and efficiency. Basis: total company revenue over the periods shown on the cards (3Y/5Y/all years), not per share, so a merger can show up as a growth jump; per-share earnings growth is in the value-creation card.83/100
Revenue is growing, but margins or cash flow do not fully confirm the trend.
Revenue growth 1 year
−1.0%
Revenue growth 3 years ⓘMeasures the company's TOTAL revenue from reported annual statements: compound average growth per year (CAGR) from the fiscal year 3, 5 or N years back to the most recent comparable fiscal year. Not per share: buybacks do not change this number, and a merger can appear as a growth jump. Per-share growth (which does include buybacks) is in the value-creation card.
+12.0%
Revenue growth 5 years ⓘMeasures the company's TOTAL revenue from reported annual statements: compound average growth per year (CAGR) from the fiscal year 3, 5 or N years back to the most recent comparable fiscal year. Not per share: buybacks do not change this number, and a merger can appear as a growth jump. Per-share growth (which does include buybacks) is in the value-creation card.
+11.5%
Revenue growth 40 years ⓘMeasures the company's TOTAL revenue from reported annual statements: compound average growth per year (CAGR) from the fiscal year 3, 5 or N years back to the most recent comparable fiscal year. Not per share: buybacks do not change this number, and a merger can appear as a growth jump. Per-share growth (which does include buybacks) is in the value-creation card.
+17.9%
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What shareholders gained per year (last 5 years) ⓘWhat the business itself delivers per year: earnings growth per share plus the dividend yield. This is what you get IF the market keeps valuing the stock the same way: it contains no assumption about the market changing its mind. Computed per share, so buybacks count and a merger does not pass as growth. For a company that pays no dividend it is pure earnings growth per share. Period: earnings growth per share as CAGR over the last 5 reported fiscal years (annual statements), plus the current dividend yield. The start value is the median of the three years around the start, so a single crisis year (a pandemic or a write-down) does not distort the rate.
+7.9%
Earnings growth per share plus dividend.
Earnings per share, growth per year+5.1%
Dividend (yield on the price)2.8%
Pace: 5 vs 10 years ⓘTwo data points, not a trend model: earnings growth per share over the last 5 fiscal years against the last 10. Labelled "steady" when both rates are within 3 percentage points of each other, otherwise picking up or flattening. Shown only when ten years of history exist.5% vs 18%, slowing
Profit margin 2020 to 2025 ⓘOperating margin then vs now, from reported annual statements. A falling margin after a boom year is the classic peak-earnings signal: the growth rate then leans on an inflated base.10% → 17%
Growth Forecast
Little optimism in the price
The price assumes less growth than the company has delivered so far and less than analysts expect.
What the price assumes ⓘThis turns our valuation around: instead of asking what the share is worth, it asks what growth the current price requires. It uses the cash the company keeps after all spending (free cash flow), the same discount rate as our models, five years of growth, then slowing evenly to 2 % a year by year ten. Compared with the analysts' sales forecasts extended to the same five years (at least three analysts, for context only, it does not enter the Fair Value): within 3 percentage points counts as "in line" (amber), below that little optimism (green), above that a lot of optimism (red).
−14.1%
Yearly growth needed for the next five years to justify today's price.
What forecasts expect ⓘAnalysts publish sales forecasts for the next two fiscal years. For the years after that, growth slows evenly to 2 % a year by year ten (2 % is the long-run rate our models use). Projected years are marked as such.
+0.9%
Yearly sales growth analysts expect, extended to five years.
News mood ⓘNews mood, the average tone of recent news (89 articles), rated against how stocks are usually covered. 🚀 Hype = unusually upbeat · 🙂 Positive = above average · 😐 Neutral = typical · 🙁 Negative = below average · 😨 Very negative = unusually downbeat. It reflects the tone of coverage, not our valuation.Positive
Recent news coverage is more positive than average.
Price, fair value, quality and upside side by side.
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Peer GroupⓘHow this stock ranks against its industry: the green marker is this stock, the band is the typical 25–75% peer range, and the tick is the median.Insurance - Property & Casualty · 118 stocks
For bloggers, editors and developers: paste this into your site or blog (a “Custom HTML” block in WordPress), it shows the current fair value and links back here. Free, plain HTML, and welcome. Full data streams (CSV/JSON) at /developers.
Cite: Fair Value Calculator (2026). "Markel Corporation Fair Value". https://www.fairvalue-calculator.com/stock/MKL
Frequently asked questions
Is Markel Corporation (MKL) overvalued or undervalued?
As of Sep 18, 2026, our model estimates a fair value of $1,627 versus a price of $1,776, about −8% upside (fairly valued).
What is the fair value of MKL?
Our model-based fair value for Markel Corporation is $1,627 (as of Sep 18, 2026), built from audited fundamentals. The current price: $1,776.
What is the quality score of MKL?
Markel Corporation has a Quality Score of 60/100. It measures business quality (profitability, growth, cash flow, balance-sheet strength, investment discipline, share issuance). Market factors such as price momentum and volatility do not enter the number; they are shown separately in the detail view.
What is the price target for Markel Corporation (MKL)?
Our model-based price target is the fair value of $1,627 (as of Sep 18, 2026) from 6 valuation models. Cautious scenario $1,377, optimistic scenario $2,300. It is a calculation from audited fundamentals, not an analyst target.
What is the Markel Corporation stock forecast for 2026?
Our models put fair value at $1,627, about −8% upside versus a price of $1,776 (fairly valued). Cautious scenario $1,377, optimistic scenario $2,300. The calculation is refreshed regularly with new filings.
What is the revenue of Markel Corporation (MKL)?
Markel Corporation reported trailing-twelve-month revenue of about $16.0B (latest available figure, as of Sep 18, 2026).
Does Markel Corporation pay a dividend?
Markel Corporation currently shows a dividend yield of about 2.78% relative to its recent price (as of Sep 18, 2026).
What growth is priced into Markel Corporation (MKL)?
For today's price to be fair in a discounted-cash-flow model, Markel Corporation would have to grow free cash flow by -14.1 % per year for five years (discount rate 8.5 %, then slowing evenly to 2 % perpetual growth by year ten). Over the last 5 years revenue grew +11.5 % per year. As of Sep 18, 2026.
What discount rate (WACC) does the fair value of MKL use?
Our models discount Markel Corporation at 8.5 %: a base by market capitalisation (large), damped by beta 0.67, country premium for USA. The same rate applies in all 26 models.
What is a reverse DCF?
A reverse DCF turns the usual calculation around. Instead of deriving a value from assumptions, it takes today's price as given and asks: what free-cash-flow growth would a company have to deliver for exactly this price to be fair? The result is not a forecast but the expectation already priced in. For Markel Corporation that is -14.1 % per year a year over ten years, using the same discount rate (8.5 %) and the same formula as our fair value.
How much growth has Markel Corporation (MKL) delivered so far?
Over the past 5 years revenue at Markel Corporation grew +11.5 % a year. The price currently implies -14.1 % per year free-cash-flow growth a year. Comparing the two shows how much confidence is in the price: if it demands more than has been delivered, the business has to accelerate for the maths to work.
How fast is the sector of Markel Corporation (MKL) growing?
The median revenue growth in the sector is +8.1 % a year. That is the yardstick for the growth priced into Markel Corporation (-14.1 % per year a year): it shows whether the expectation is within the usual range or beyond it.
What is the free cash flow yield of Markel Corporation (MKL)?
The free-cash-flow yield on the price is 11.30 %: that much free cash flow Markel Corporation produces per unit of market value. When it exceeds the discount rate of our models (8.5 %), the business already earns more than its cost of capital demands, and the price needs little additional growth.
What is the intrinsic value of Markel Corporation (MKL)?
Intrinsic value and fair value mean the same thing: what the business is worth on its numbers, independent of the share price. For Markel Corporation it is $1,627 per share (as of Sep 18, 2026), against a price of $1,776. It is the blended result of 6 valuation models (cash flow, earnings, asset, dividend).
Is Markel Corporation stock overvalued or undervalued in 2026?
As of Sep 18, 2026, MKL trades above its calculated fair value: price $1,776, fair value $1,627, a gap of about −8% (fairly valued). The calculation is refreshed with each new quarterly report, so the verdict can change during the year.
Is fair value the same as the market price of MKL?
No. The price is what the market pays today ($1,776); the fair value is what the company's own numbers justify ($1,627). For Markel Corporation the two are $149.08 per share apart. That gap is exactly why we show both numbers side by side.
How much is Markel Corporation worth?
The market values Markel Corporation at about $24.7B (market capitalisation, as of Sep 18, 2026). Per share that is $1,776; our models calculate a fair value of $1,627 per share.
What do the bullish and bearish scenarios say about MKL?
Our models span a range for Markel Corporation: cautious scenario $1,377, base $1,627, optimistic $2,300 per share (as of Sep 18, 2026, price $1,776). The range comes from different growth and margin assumptions, not from analyst opinions.
What is the P/E ratio of MKL?
Markel Corporation trades at a price-to-earnings ratio of 12.9 (as of Sep 18, 2026). A P/E on its own says little: it compares the price with ONE year of profit, while our fair value of $1,627 is built from several models across several years. Other multiples: PEG 2.5, P/B 1.3, P/S 1.5, EV/EBITDA 8.4.
What is the PEG ratio of MKL?
The PEG ratio of Markel Corporation is 2.49 (P/E divided by earnings growth, as of Sep 18, 2026). That is above 1, so the growth is already paid for in the price.
How solid is the balance sheet of Markel Corporation (MKL)?
Balance-sheet figures for Markel Corporation (as of Sep 18, 2026): return on equity 10.0%, debt of 0.23 per unit of equity. They feed the Quality Score of 60/100, which measures business quality independently of the share price.
How far is MKL from its 52-week high?
Markel Corporation trades at $1,776, about 20% below its 52-week high of $2,208 and 3% above the low of $1,719 (as of Sep 18, 2026). Distance from the high says nothing about value: that is what the fair value of $1,627 is for.
Which stocks are comparable to Markel Corporation?
From the same area (Financial Services) we also value The Progressive Corporation, Chubb Limited, The Travelers Companies, Inc, The Allstate Corporation, among others. Each of them has its own fair-value calculation on this site using the same models, so the comparison is like for like.
Is Markel Corporation stock attractive at the current price?
The data as of Sep 18, 2026: price $1,776, calculated fair value $1,627 (−8%), Quality Score 60/100, from 6 models. Whether that fits your horizon and risk tolerance is your call. We provide the calculation, not investment advice.
How is the fair value of MKL calculated?
We run Markel Corporation through 6 models from four families: discounted cash flow, earnings models, asset and balance-sheet models, and dividend models. Every model gets the same audited fundamentals; the result is the weighted average of $1,627, with the spread shown as a cautious and an optimistic scenario.
Is it still worth investing in stocks now?
The global stock market currently sits 16.1 % above its aggregate fair value. Markel Corporation itself currently trades above fair value. An expensive market is no reason to stay out and no reason to buy everything at once: keep a broad savings plan running, buy single stocks only with money you can do without, and hold part of your money liquid while the market is high. The full picture including sectors is on is it worth investing now.
What is the share price of Markel Corporation (MKL)?
The closing price on Sep 18, 2026 was $1,776. Our model-based fair value is $1,627, about −8% upside (fairly valued). We carry closing prices from our data provider, not a live tick.
What should I pay attention to with Markel Corporation right now?
The price sits close to our fair value, market and models broadly agree here, little valuation tension. For a financial, book-value and earnings-based methods matter more than a cash-flow DCF, which fits banks and insurers poorly.
Where does the earnings growth of Markel Corporation (MKL) come from?
Earnings per share at Markel Corporation grew +20.7 % a year from 2014 to 2025. Broken into its drivers: revenue per share +14.1 %, EBIT margin +5.6 %, tax rate +0.4 %, residual (interest, one-offs) −0.2 %. The four rates multiply to the earnings growth rate, they do not add up. Start and end are three-year averages so a single exceptional year does not distort the result.
Key figures of Markel Corporation
How large is the market capitalisation of Markel Corporation (MKL)?
The market capitalisation of Markel Corporation is $24.7B. The stock-market value of the whole company: share price times number of shares. It is what the market asks for the entire business today.
What is the P/S ratio of Markel Corporation (MKL)?
The price-to-sales ratio of Markel Corporation is 1.63 (P/E × margin). Price to sales: market value relative to yearly revenue. Useful when profit is thin or distorted.
What are the earnings per share of Markel Corporation (MKL)?
Earnings per share at Markel Corporation are $138.18 (price ÷ EPS = P/E 12.9). Earnings per share over the last twelve months: total profit spread across every single share.
What is the dividend yield of Markel Corporation (MKL)?
The dividend yield of Markel Corporation is 2.8% (payout 35.7%). Yearly dividend relative to the share price. 3% pays 3 per 100 invested. Below: how much of profit is used for it.
What is the net margin of Markel Corporation (MKL)?
The net margin of Markel Corporation is 12.7% (fiscal year 2025). How much of every unit of revenue ends up as profit. 10% means 10 cents of profit per dollar of sales.
What is the return on equity of Markel Corporation (MKL)?
The return on equity (ROE) of Markel Corporation is 10.0% (last twelve months). Profit relative to shareholders' equity, how efficiently the company works with its owners' money.
What is the EBIT return on assets of Markel Corporation (MKL)?
On an EBIT basis the return on assets of Markel Corporation is 4.8% (avg 5y). Operating profit (EBIT) relative to everything the company owns, as a multi-year average. It describes the business model rather than one good or bad year.
What is the operating margin of Markel Corporation (MKL)?
The operating margin of Markel Corporation is −9.7% (last twelve months). Profit from the core business (before interest and taxes) relative to revenue.
How fast is revenue growing at Markel Corporation (MKL)?
Revenue at Markel Corporation is growing −16.9% versus a year earlier (3y avg +12.0%). How much revenue grew versus a year earlier (YoY). The 3-year average next to it puts the single year in context.
How fast are earnings growing at Markel Corporation (MKL)?
Earnings per share at Markel Corporation are growing +95.4% versus a year earlier. How much earnings per share grew versus a year earlier.
How much net debt does Markel Corporation (MKL) carry?
The net debt of Markel Corporation is $339M (fiscal year 2025, ≈ 0.1 yrs of FCF). Debt minus cash on hand. The note shows how many years of free cash flow could in theory pay it off.
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Broad data
Sep 18, 2026