Natera Inc (NTRA) fair value: what the stock is really worth
As of Nov 6, 2026: fair value (intrinsic value) of Natera Inc stock $22.23, price $311, that is 92.8% below the price, quality 41 out of 100. Rating: strongly overvalued. Calculated from audited financials with 7 of our 26 valuation models and 37 quality factors, updated daily.
69 individual criteria per stock, every one traceableSee the method →
Price vs Fair Value
White line = price, green steps = our fair value per fiscal year. As of Nov 6, 2026.
How to read this chart
60‑month range $28.13 – $436.00 · fair‑value band $14.82 – $32.54 · the $310.67 price screens above the $22.23 fair value. Green steps = our fair value per fiscal year (point-in-time, no hindsight). As of Nov 6, 2026.
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Natera, Inc., a diagnostics company, engages in the development and commercialization of molecular testing services worldwide.
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It offers Signatera, a personalized ctDNA blood test for MRD assessment, early recurrence monitoring, and evaluation of treatment response in patients previously diagnosed with cancer; Latitude, a blood-based MRD test for colorectal cancer; Altera, a tissue based comprehensive genomic profiling test; and Empower, a hereditary cancer screening test.
The company also provides Panorama, a non-invasive prenatal test; Horizon, a carrier screening test; Fetal Focus, a single-gene NIPT, or sgNIPT, that screens for 21 single-gene inherited conditions; and Vistara, a single-gene NIPT, which screens for 25 single-gene conditions.
In addition, it offers Anora, which tests and analyzes miscarriage tissue from women who have experienced one or more pregnancy losses; Empower, a hereditary cancer screening test; Prospera, a test to assess active rejection in patients who have undergone solid organ transplantation; Renasight, a kidney gene panel test; and Constellation software, a cloud-based distribution model.
Further, the company provides NateraCore, a platform to support the patient and provider experience; phlebotomy services; and EMR integration services.
The company serves independent laboratories, national and regional reference laboratories, medical centers and physician practices for its screening tests, research laboratories, and pharmaceutical companies through its direct sales force and laboratory distribution partners, as well as Constellation licensees under its cloud-based distribution model.
It has a partnership agreement with BGI Genomics Co., Ltd. to develop, manufacture, and commercialize NGS-based genetic testing assays for clinical and commercial use. The company has a collaboration with Diakonos Oncology Corp. to assess molecular response in patients with refractory melanoma.
The company was formerly known as Gene Security Network, LLC and changed its name to Natera, Inc. in Januar
Stock analysis
Natera Inc (NTRA) currently trades at $310.67, while our model-based Fair Value estimate is $22.23, 93% below the price, so the stock looks overvalued today.
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Valuation
Bull case: the Growth DCF group reads highest at a median of $23.29 per share, and 0 of the 7 models we run sit above the $310.67 price.
Bear case: the Asset-Based group reads lowest at $4.87, and 7 of the 7 models stay below the price. Data coverage for this calculation is low.
Scenario range: $14.82 (bear) to $32.54 (bull), the price of $310.67 sits above it. Bear and bull are the same models on cautious and optimistic assumptions, a range, not a price target.
Quality & growth
The Quality Score stands at 41/100 (below-average quality), in the Healthcare sector.
Mixed Growth: Revenue is growing, but margins or cash flow do not fully confirm the trend.
Natera Inc reported revenue of $2.3B in FY2025 versus $625M in FY2021, a compound +38.6%/yr. Reported net income was −$208M in FY2025.
Key figures
Market cap $52.4B Large · P/S ratio 18.0 · EPS (TTM) $−1.12 · Net margin −5.7% · Return on equity −10.6% · Return on assets (EBIT) −26.7% (5-year average) · Operating margin −8.6% · Revenue (TTM) $2.9B.
Competitive moat
Our AI-assisted moat analysis scores the competitive advantage at 15 out of 100 (low confidence).
What moves the price
The share trades about 29% below its 52-week high and 70% above its 52-week low, currently above its 200-day average.
For context, the median of 10 Healthcare peers we cover trades at −9% fair-value upside, at −93%, NTRA screens richer than that median.
Fair Value models
Bear$14.82Fair Value $22.23Bull$32.54
Price $310.67 · Downside -92.8%
Model ⓘEach model values the company its own way (discounted cash flow, earnings, assets, dividends). The fair value above starts from their evidence-weighted blend, not from a single model. In cyclical trough or peak years, after dilution or a stock split it is adjusted afterwards, so it can sit above or below the models.Bear ⓘBear = the cautious scenario: the same model computed with conservative anchors (lower growth, margins and valuation multiples). Together with Bull it frames a plausible valuation range, not a price target.BaseBull ⓘBull = the optimistic scenario: the same model computed with favourable anchors (higher growth, margins and valuation multiples). Together with Bear it frames a plausible valuation range, not a price target. If a model's bull case is above four times its base value, the table shows that limit with a > sign (like the overall Bull above): beyond it no assumption holds.Coverage ⓘCoverage = how well-backed THIS model's estimate is for this stock (0–100): how complete and reliable its input data are, and how well the model fits the company. The final Fair Value is an evidence-weighted blend, so better-evidenced models count more. Green ≥70, amber 50–69, grey below 50.
In the last 6 months, 11 officers or directors sold shares worth $191.0M and none bought.
SaleMichael Burkes BrophyCHIEF FINANCIAL OFFICER11× since Jan 20, 2026: 91,486 shares, avg. $248.05$22.7MNov 3, 202610b5-1 plan
SaleMatthew RabinowitzEXECUTIVE CHAIRMAN, Director12× since Mar 12, 2026: 517,623 shares, avg. $261.31$135.3MNov 2, 202610b5-1 plan
SaleJonathan SheenaDirector29× since Nov 11, 2025: 103,691 shares, avg. $286.15$29.7MNov 2, 202610b5-1 plan
SaleSteven Leonard ChapmanCEO AND PRESIDENT, Director16× since Dec 1, 2025: 256,513 shares, avg. $238.22$61.1MNov 2, 202610b5-1 plan
SaleDaniel RabinowitzSEC. AND CHIEF LEGAL OFFICER14× since Jan 20, 2026: 98,440 shares, avg. $244.29$24.0MNov 2, 202610b5-1 plan
SaleSolomon MoshkevichPRESIDENT, CLINICALDIAGNOSTICS20× since Dec 1, 2025: 93,522 shares, avg. $265.96$24.9MNov 2, 2026
SaleJohn FeskoPRESIDENT, CHIEF BUS. OFFICER12× since Jan 20, 2026: 38,081 shares, avg. $256.68$9.8MNov 2, 202610b5-1 plan
SaleRowan E ChapmanDirector4× since Dec 5, 2025: 7,587 shares, avg. $232.55$1.8MJul 15, 2026
SaleHerm RosenmanDirector2× since Dec 12, 2025: 64,949 shares, avg. $233.17$15.1MJun 24, 2026
SaleGail Boxer MarcusDirector11,000 shares at $217.21$2.4MJun 5, 2026
Plus 2 more entries from the last 12 months.
Plus 14 other filings such as grants, option exercises or tax withholding. They are not market purchases or sales.
Sales are often planned (taxes, diversification, 10b5-1 plans). Purchases with their own money are seen as the stronger sign. For information only: not part of the quality score or Fair Value.
Growth Quality ⓘGrowth is valuable only when reinvestment earns attractive returns (Aswath Damodaran): sustainable growth depends on return on capital, reinvestment and efficiency. Basis: total company revenue over the periods shown on the cards (3Y/5Y/all years), not per share, so a merger can show up as a growth jump; per-share earnings growth is in the value-creation card.62/100
Revenue is growing, but margins or cash flow do not fully confirm the trend.
Revenue growth 1 year
+35.9%
Revenue growth 3 years ⓘMeasures the company's TOTAL revenue from reported annual statements: compound average growth per year (CAGR) from the fiscal year 3, 5 or N years back to the most recent comparable fiscal year. Not per share: buybacks do not change this number, and a merger can appear as a growth jump. Per-share growth (which does include buybacks) is in the value-creation card.
+41.1%
Revenue growth 5 years ⓘMeasures the company's TOTAL revenue from reported annual statements: compound average growth per year (CAGR) from the fiscal year 3, 5 or N years back to the most recent comparable fiscal year. Not per share: buybacks do not change this number, and a merger can appear as a growth jump. Per-share growth (which does include buybacks) is in the value-creation card.
+42.6%
Start year 2020 (pandemic). Over 10 years: +28.3% a year
Revenue growth 13 years ⓘMeasures the company's TOTAL revenue from reported annual statements: compound average growth per year (CAGR) from the fiscal year 3, 5 or N years back to the most recent comparable fiscal year. Not per share: buybacks do not change this number, and a merger can appear as a growth jump. Per-share growth (which does include buybacks) is in the value-creation card.
+47.9%
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Profit margin (trend) ⓘOperating margin then vs now, from reported annual statements. A falling margin after a boom year is the classic peak-earnings signal: the growth rate then leans on an inflated base.
−55.3% (2020) → −13.4% (2025)
What shareholders gained per year ⓘWe only publish this rate when it is defensible. Reason: fiscal 2025 is a loss year, no rate is defined from a loss
not computed
Growth Forecast
A lot of optimism in the price
The price assumes more growth than the company has delivered so far and more than analysts expect.
What the price assumes ⓘThis turns our valuation around: instead of asking what the share is worth, it asks what growth the current price requires. It uses the cash the company keeps after all spending (free cash flow), the same discount rate as our models, five years of growth, then slowing evenly to 2 % a year by year ten. Compared with the analysts' sales forecasts extended to the same five years (at least three analysts, for context only, it does not enter the Fair Value): within 3 percentage points counts as "in line" (amber), below that little optimism (green), above that a lot of optimism (red).
+75.3%
Yearly growth needed for the next five years to justify today's price.
What forecasts expect ⓘAnalysts publish sales forecasts for the next two fiscal years. For the years after that, growth slows evenly to 2 % a year by year ten (2 % is the long-run rate our models use). Projected years are marked as such.
+19.0%
Yearly sales growth analysts expect, extended to five years.
After inflation (USA: IMF forecast 2.4% a year to 2030, 3.1% from 2016 to 2025) that is about +71.2% a year for the price and +16.3% for the forecasts.
News mood ⓘNews mood, the average tone of recent news (97 articles), rated against how stocks are usually covered. 🚀 Hype = unusually upbeat · 🙂 Positive = above average · 😐 Neutral = typical · 🙁 Negative = below average · 😨 Very negative = unusually downbeat. It reflects the tone of coverage, not our valuation.Negative
Recent news coverage is more negative than average.
AI conclusion: The business draws strength from its established cell-free DNA tests in oncology monitoring via Signatera yet remains hampered by ongoing net losses and limited evidence of durable advantages.
Main risk: Guardant Health and Exact Sciences offer competing MRD tests that could capture customers from Natera’s Signatera platform and pressure realized prices in a payer-administered reimbursement environment.
Bull case: Natera could leverage its growing oncology data assets and AI foundation models to improve test performance and secure broader payer coverage ahead of rivals.
Bear case: If rivals gain traction with comparable or cheaper MRD offerings and reimbursement tightens, Natera’s oncology volume growth and margins could stall amid ongoing legal costs.
Natera’s cell-free DNA tests already support oncology monitoring through Signatera while its new multi-cancer early detection assay just earned FDA breakthrough designation after review of data from twelve cancer types. The step speeds regulatory interaction but supplies no performance numbers and stops short of approval or commercialization. Will the broader screening effort reinforce the core business or stretch resources before payor adoption catches up?
Price, fair value, quality and upside side by side.
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Peer GroupⓘHow this stock ranks against its industry: the green marker is this stock, the band is the typical 25–75% peer range, and the tick is the median.Diagnostics & Research · 126 stocks
Beats the industry median on 1/10 measures
Overall it trails its industry peers.
Valuation
Quality Score41 · Bottom 25%
Fair Value upside−92.8% · Bottom 25%
Profitability
Return on assets−8.3% · Bottom 25%
Net margin (12 months)−5.7% · Bottom 25%
Operating margin (12 months)−8.6% · Bottom 25%
Growth and dividend
Revenue growth (quarter YoY)34.1% · Top 25%
Balance sheet
Debt / equity0.17× · Above median
Valuation Multiplesvs Diagnostics & Research median · lower = cheaper
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Cite: Fair Value Calculator (2026). "Natera Inc Fair Value". https://www.fairvalue-calculator.com/stock/NTRA
Frequently asked questions
Is Natera Inc (NTRA) overvalued or undervalued?
As of Nov 6, 2026, our model estimates a fair value of $22.23 versus a price of $310.67, about 93% lower (overvalued).
What is the fair value of NTRA?
Our model-based fair value for Natera Inc is $22.23 (as of Nov 6, 2026), built from audited fundamentals. The current price: $310.67.
What is the quality score of NTRA?
Natera Inc has a Quality Score of 41/100. It measures business quality (profitability, growth, cash flow, balance-sheet strength, investment discipline, share issuance). Market factors such as price momentum and volatility do not enter the number; they are shown separately in the detail view.
What is the price target for Natera Inc (NTRA)?
Our model-based price target is the fair value of $22.23 (as of Nov 6, 2026) from 7 valuation models. Cautious scenario $14.82, optimistic scenario $32.54. It is a calculation from audited fundamentals, not an analyst target.
What is the Natera Inc stock forecast for 2026?
Our models put fair value at $22.23, about 93% lower versus a price of $310.67 (overvalued). Cautious scenario $14.82, optimistic scenario $32.54. The calculation is refreshed regularly with new filings.
What is the revenue of Natera Inc (NTRA)?
Natera Inc reported trailing-twelve-month revenue of about $2.9B (latest available figure, as of Nov 6, 2026).
What growth is priced into Natera Inc (NTRA)?
For today's price to be fair in a discounted-cash-flow model, Natera Inc would have to grow free cash flow by +75.3 % per year for five years (discount rate 10.4 %, then slowing evenly to 2 % perpetual growth by year ten). Over the last 5 years revenue grew +42.6 % per year. As of Nov 6, 2026.
What discount rate (WACC) does the fair value of NTRA use?
Our models discount Natera Inc at 10.4 %: a base by market capitalisation (large), damped by beta 1.52, country premium for USA. The same rate applies in all 26 models.
What is a reverse DCF?
A reverse DCF turns the usual calculation around. Instead of deriving a value from assumptions, it takes today's price as given and asks: what free-cash-flow growth would a company have to deliver for exactly this price to be fair? The result is not a forecast but the expectation already priced in. For Natera Inc that is +75.3 % per year for five years, then slowing evenly to 2 % by year ten, using the same discount rate (10.4 %) and the same formula as our fair value.
How much growth has Natera Inc (NTRA) delivered so far?
Over the past 5 years revenue at Natera Inc grew +42.6 % a year. The price currently implies free-cash-flow growth of +75.3 % per year. Comparing the two shows how much confidence is in the price: if it demands more than has been delivered, the business has to accelerate for the maths to work.
How fast is the sector of Natera Inc (NTRA) growing?
The median revenue growth in the sector is +6.2 % a year. That is the yardstick for the growth priced into Natera Inc (+75.3 % per year): it shows whether the expectation is within the usual range or beyond it.
What is the free cash flow yield of Natera Inc (NTRA)?
The free-cash-flow yield on the price is 0.25 %: that much free cash flow Natera Inc produces per unit of market value. When it exceeds the discount rate of our models (10.4 %), the business already earns more than its cost of capital demands, and the price needs little additional growth.
What is the intrinsic value of Natera Inc (NTRA)?
Intrinsic value and fair value mean the same thing: what the business is worth on its numbers, independent of the share price. For Natera Inc it is $22.23 per share (as of Nov 6, 2026), against a price of $310.67. It is the blended result of 7 valuation models in 4 families (DCF Models, Multiples, Asset-Based, Growth DCF).
Is Natera Inc stock overvalued or undervalued in 2026?
As of Nov 6, 2026, NTRA trades above its calculated fair value: price $310.67, fair value $22.23, a gap of about −93% (overvalued). The calculation is refreshed with each new quarterly report, so the verdict can change during the year.
Is fair value the same as the market price of NTRA?
No. The price is what the market pays today ($310.67); the fair value is what the company's own numbers justify ($22.23). For Natera Inc the two are $288.44 per share apart. That gap is exactly why we show both numbers side by side.
How much is Natera Inc worth?
The market values Natera Inc at about $52.4B (market capitalisation, as of Nov 6, 2026). Per share that is $310.67; our models calculate a fair value of $22.23 per share.
What do the bullish and bearish scenarios say about NTRA?
Our models span a range for Natera Inc: cautious scenario $14.82, base $22.23, optimistic $32.54 per share (as of Nov 6, 2026, price $310.67). The range comes from different growth and margin assumptions, not from analyst opinions.
How solid is the balance sheet of Natera Inc (NTRA)?
Balance-sheet figures for Natera Inc (as of Nov 6, 2026): return on equity −10.6%, debt of 0.17 per unit of equity. They feed the Quality Score of 41/100, which measures business quality independently of the share price.
How far is NTRA from its 52-week high?
Natera Inc trades at $310.67, about 29% below its 52-week high of $436.00 and 70% above the low of $182.65 (as of Nov 6, 2026). Distance from the high says nothing about value: that is what the fair value of $22.23 is for.
Which stocks are comparable to Natera Inc?
From the same area (Healthcare) we also value Thermo Fisher Scientific Inc, Danaher Corporation, WuXi AppTec Co, Lonza Group, among others. Each of them has its own fair-value calculation on this site using the same models, so the comparison is like for like.
Is Natera Inc stock attractive at the current price?
The data as of Nov 6, 2026: price $310.67, calculated fair value $22.23 (−93%), Quality Score 41/100, from 7 models. Whether that fits your horizon and risk tolerance is your call. We provide the calculation, not investment advice.
How is the fair value of NTRA calculated?
We run Natera Inc through 7 models from 4 families: DCF Models, Multiples, Asset-Based, Growth DCF. Every model gets the same audited fundamentals; the fair value of $22.23 builds on their evidence-weighted average, with the spread shown as a cautious and an optimistic scenario.
Is it still worth investing in stocks now?
The global stock market currently sits 13.0% above its aggregate fair value. Natera Inc itself currently trades above fair value. An expensive market is no reason to stay out and no reason to buy everything at once: keep a broad savings plan running, buy single stocks only with money you can do without, and hold part of your money liquid while the market is high. The full picture including sectors is on is it worth investing now.
What is the share price of Natera Inc (NTRA)?
The closing price on Nov 6, 2026 was $310.67. Our model-based fair value is $22.23, about 93% lower (overvalued). We carry closing prices from our data provider, not a live tick.
What should I pay attention to with Natera Inc right now?
The price sits above even our optimistic bull case ($32.54). The favourable scenario is already priced in. Weak quality (41/100) and above fair value at the same time, the margin of safety is missing on both counts. The large gap to fair value rests on thin data (low evidence): fewer applicable models and a shorter history. Read it with extra caution. A fairly wide model range ($14.82 to $32.54) leaves room in how you read the outcome.
Key figures of Natera Inc
How large is the market capitalisation of Natera Inc (NTRA)?
The market capitalisation of Natera Inc is $52.4B. The stock-market value of the whole company: share price times number of shares. It is what the market asks for the entire business today.
What is the P/S ratio of Natera Inc (NTRA)?
The price-to-sales ratio of Natera Inc is 18.0 (last twelve months). Price to sales: market value relative to yearly revenue. Useful when profit is thin or distorted.
What are the earnings per share of Natera Inc (NTRA)?
Earnings per share at Natera Inc are $−1.12. Earnings per share over the last twelve months: total profit spread across every single share.
What is the net margin of Natera Inc (NTRA)?
The net margin of Natera Inc is −5.7% (last twelve months). How much of every unit of revenue ends up as profit. 10% means 10 cents of profit per dollar of sales.
What is the return on equity of Natera Inc (NTRA)?
The return on equity (ROE) of Natera Inc is −10.6% (last twelve months). Profit relative to shareholders' equity, how efficiently the company works with its owners' money.
What is the EBIT return on assets of Natera Inc (NTRA)?
On an EBIT basis the return on assets of Natera Inc is −26.7% (avg 5y). Operating profit (EBIT) relative to everything the company owns, as a multi-year average. It describes the business model rather than one good or bad year.
What is the operating margin of Natera Inc (NTRA)?
The operating margin of Natera Inc is −8.6% (last twelve months). Profit from the core business (before interest and taxes) relative to revenue.
How fast is revenue growing at Natera Inc (NTRA)?
Revenue at Natera Inc is growing +34.1% versus a year earlier (3y avg +41.1%). How much revenue grew versus a year earlier (YoY). The 3-year average next to it puts the single year in context.
How much net cash does Natera Inc (NTRA) hold?
Natera Inc holds more cash than debt, $862M net (fiscal year 2025). The company holds more cash than debt, a safety cushion.
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Thin data
Nov 6, 2026
