Lonza Group (LONN) Fair Value & Analysis
Healthcare · CH · Market cap CHF 39.7B
Fair value as of: Jul 19, 2026
From 17 valuation models · updated 21 days ago
Share price −0.1% over the past month.
A solid business, but screening 55% overvalued on our models.
What matters now
- The price sits above even our optimistic bull case (CHF 337.74). The favourable scenario is already priced in.
- Solid but not exceptional quality (55/100) and above fair value, neither a clear bargain nor a standout compounder.
- A fairly wide model range (CHF 181.86 to CHF 337.74) leaves room in how you read the outcome.
Price vs Fair Value (5 years)
White line = price, green steps = our fair value per fiscal year, dashed = 300-day average. As of Jul 19, 2026.
How to read this chart
60‑month range CHF 303.80 – CHF 756.42 · fair‑value band CHF 181.86 – CHF 337.74 · the CHF 572.20 price screens above the CHF 259.80 fair value. Green steps = our fair value per fiscal year (point-in-time, no hindsight). Dashed = 300-day average. As of Jul 19, 2026.
Analysis
Lonza Group (LONN) currently trades at CHF 572.20, while our model-based Fair Value estimate is CHF 259.80, implying the stock looks roughly 54.6% overvalued today. The Quality Score stands at 55/100 (solid quality), in the Healthcare sector. Bear case: priced above our estimate, the market already discounts strong expectations. Bull case: above-average quality can justify a premium, the entry price still matters most (evidence: high).
Over the trailing twelve months, Lonza Group generated revenue of CHF 6.5B at a net margin of -4.2%. Revenue grew 17.0% year over year. It earns a return on equity of 10.5%. Net debt stands at CHF 3.5B. Fundamentals as of Jul 19, 2026
Our scenario range runs from CHF 181.86 (bear case) to CHF 337.74 (bull case); at CHF 572.20, the current price sits above that range. Bear and bull are the same models run on conservative and optimistic assumptions (margins, growth, valuation multiples), so a plausible valuation range, not a price target. The share trades about 3% below its 52-week high and 27% above its 52-week low, currently above its 200-day average. For context, the median of 10 Healthcare peers we cover trades at -48% fair-value upside, at -55%, LONN screens richer than that median.
Fair Value models
Each model estimates fair value its own way; the Fair Value above is the evidence-weighted blend. Evidence (0–100) measures how completely this model’s inputs are available: well-fed models carry more weight in the blend. The spread across models is intentional, each one stresses a different value driver; dividend models, for instance, come out structurally low when payout is small.
All 17 models by family
Widest divergence: Growth Earnings (CHF 259.80) versus DCF Models (CHF 50.97). Highest evidence: Residual Income (76).
Key figures & financial health
More key figures
Figures from reported company fundamentals · as of Jul 19, 2026. TTM = trailing twelve months.
Quality Score breakdown
Of which business quality 53 · Market factors (momentum, volatility) 62
Non-valuation factor families (profitability, growth, cashflow, financial strength, momentum …), each academically grounded. Valuation itself sits in the Fair Value and is deliberately excluded here to avoid double-counting.
About the company
Lonza Group AG, together with its subsidiaries, operates as a contract development and manufacturing organization for pharma and biotech companies in Europe, North and Central America, Latin America, Asia, Australia, New Zealand, and internationally. It operates through Integrated Biologics; Advanced Synthesis; and Specialized Modalities segments.
Full company description
Lonza Group AG, together with its subsidiaries, operates as a contract development and manufacturing organization for pharma and biotech companies in Europe, North and Central America, Latin America, Asia, Australia, New Zealand, and internationally. It operates through Integrated Biologics; Advanced Synthesis; and Specialized Modalities segments. The Integrated Biologics segment offers CDMO biologics services from clinical development, drug substance, and drug product manufacturing; and operates mammalian and drug product platforms. Its Advanced Synthesis segment manufactures antibody-drug conjugates (ADCs) and other bioconjugates, small molecules, and highly potent active pharmaceutical ingredients; and operates small molecules and bioconjugates platforms. The Specialized Modalities segment operates various technologies, such as spanning cell & gene, microbial, bioscience, and mRNA. Lonza Group AG was incorporated in 1897 and is headquartered in Basel, Switzerland.
Company description, as reported by the company or data provider.
Revenue & earnings trend
FY2021 – FY2025 · reported fiscal years
Lonza Group reported revenue of CHF 6.5B in FY2025 versus CHF 5.4B in FY2021, a compound +4.8%/yr. Reported net income was CHF 949M in FY2025, compounding −24.7%/yr from FY2021.
LONN screens 55% overvalued. Compare with Thermo Fisher Scientific Inc →
Peer Group
Diagnostics & Research · 136 stocks
How this stock ranks against its industry: the green marker is this stock, the band is the typical 25–75% peer range, and the tick is the median.
Valuation Multiples vs Diagnostics & Research median · lower = cheaper
Snowflake
Five quick dimensions, each 0 to 100: VALUE (fair-value potential), FUTURE (revenue growth), PAST (return on equity), HEALTH (low debt), DIVIDEND (yield). Green = this stock, grey = typical sector peer.
VALUE 0: the price sits above our fair-value range.
Insider activity: 40/100
Values & ESG
Does this company touch areas you may want to avoid? The classification is inferred from sector and industry.
ESG scores are not available for this stock yet. Values and ESG data are contextual and can differ between providers.
Similar stocks
10 more Diagnostics & Research stocks, each showing price versus our Fair Value estimate (as of Jul 19, 2026).
| Stock | Price | Fair Value | vs Fair Value |
|---|---|---|---|
| Thermo Fisher Scientific Inc TMO | $543.19 | $308.19 | -43% |
| Danaher Corporation DHR | $199.66 | $103.88 | -48% |
| WuXi AppTec Co 2359 | HK$160.70 | HK$125.20 | -22% |
| IDEXX Laboratories, Inc IDXX | $567.44 | $255.77 | -55% |
| Agilent Technologies, Inc A | $131.46 | $62.70 | -52% |
| Waters Corporation WAT | $368.98 | $121.96 | -67% |
| IQVIA Holdings IQV | $207.85 | $134.18 | -35% |
| Integrated Diagnostics Holdings IDHC | $0.0050 | $0.0053 | +5% |
| Illumina, Inc ILMN | $186.65 | $95.51 | -49% |
| Mettler-Toledo International Inc MTD | $1,296 | $628.51 | -52% |
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How we calculate Fair Value
Each company is valued through a stack of independent intrinsic-value models (DCF variants, residual-income, multiples and more), blended into one family-balanced consensus and weighted by how much trustworthy data backs it. A separate quality layer scores the fundamentals. Every input is real reported data, nothing guessed.
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