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Lonza Group AG (LONN) fair value: what the stock is really worth

As of Sep 23, 2026: fair value of Lonza Group AG CHF 152, price CHF 562, upside -73.0%, quality 55 out of 100. Calculated from audited financials with 26 valuation models and 37 quality factors, updated daily.

  1. Fair value above price? No
  2. Good quality? Yes
  3. Add to watchlist

Healthcare · CH · ISIN CH0013841017

LG Lonza Group AG logo Some data Sep 23, 2026

Lonza Group AG

LONN · SW

Stretched ValuationStrong overvaluation with only moderate quality.

!Fair value CHF 151.69 · Strongly overvalued (−73%)
!Quality 55/100
!Expensive Growth (revenue 5y +7.7 %/yr)
!Loss over the last twelve months · -4.2% net margin (TTM) · fiscal year 2025 14.5%
!Low debt · negative free cash flow
·0.89% dividend yield
!Trails peers (5/14)
!Moderate moat 46/100
!Insider activity 40/100
!Evidence only medium, so the estimate is less certain
!Weak on dividend: 18 out of 100
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What runs behind every stock

26 valuation models 8 families, DCF to NCAV 37 quality factors margins, balance sheet, cashflow, debt 6 AI factors moat, what no ratio measures 2,000+ data points verified, per stock, median

69 individual criteria per stock, every one traceable See the method →

Price vs Fair Value

CHF 756.42 CHF 303.80 Fair Value CHF 151.69 Jun 2021 Sep 2026

White line = price, green steps = our fair value per fiscal year, dashed = 300-day average. As of Sep 23, 2026.

How to read this chart

60‑month range CHF 303.80 – CHF 756.42 · fair‑value band CHF 117.41 – CHF 177.42 · the CHF 561.80 price screens above the CHF 151.69 fair value. Green steps = our fair value per fiscal year (point-in-time, no hindsight). Dashed = 300-day average. As of Sep 23, 2026.

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Company profile

Lonza Group AG, together with its subsidiaries, operates as a contract development and manufacturing organization for pharma and biotech companies in Europe, North and Central America, Latin America, Asia, Australia, New Zealand, and internationally. It operates through Integrated Biologics; Advanced Synthesis; and Specialized Modalities segments.

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Lonza Group AG, together with its subsidiaries, operates as a contract development and manufacturing organization for pharma and biotech companies in Europe, North and Central America, Latin America, Asia, Australia, New Zealand, and internationally. It operates through Integrated Biologics; Advanced Synthesis; and Specialized Modalities segments. The Integrated Biologics segment offers CDMO biologics services from clinical development, drug substance, and drug product manufacturing; and operates mammalian and drug product platforms. Its Advanced Synthesis segment manufactures antibody-drug conjugates (ADCs) and other bioconjugates, small molecules, and highly potent active pharmaceutical ingredients; and operates small molecules and bioconjugates platforms. The Specialized Modalities segment operates various technologies, such as spanning cell & gene, microbial, bioscience, and mRNA. Lonza Group AG was incorporated in 1897 and is headquartered in Basel, Switzerland.

Stock analysis

Lonza Group AG (LONN) currently trades at CHF 561.80, while our model-based Fair Value estimate is CHF 151.69, implying the stock looks roughly 270.4% overvalued today.

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Valuation

Bull case: the Growth Earnings group reads highest at a median of CHF 259.80 per share, and 0 of the 17 models we run sit above the CHF 561.80 price.

Bear case: the Dividend Discount group reads lowest at CHF 59.74, and 17 of the 17 models stay below the price. Evidence for this calculation is medium.

Scenario range: CHF 117.41 (bear) to CHF 177.42 (bull), the price of CHF 561.80 sits above it. Bear and bull are the same models on cautious and optimistic assumptions, a range, not a price target.

Quality & growth

The Quality Score stands at 55/100 (solid quality), in the Healthcare sector.

Expensive Growth: The company is growing, but growth may require heavy reinvestment or weak cash conversion.

Lonza Group AG reported revenue of CHF 6.5B in FY2025 versus CHF 5.4B in FY2021, a compound +4.8%/yr. Reported net income was CHF 949M in FY2025, compounding −24.7%/yr from FY2021.

Key figures

Market cap CHF 39.4B · P/E ratio 43.2 · P/S ratio 6.28 · EPS (TTM) CHF 13.00 · Dividend yield 0.9% · Net margin 14.5% · Return on equity 10.5% · Return on assets (EBIT) 6.3%.

Competitive moat

Our AI-assisted moat analysis scores the competitive advantage at 48 out of 100 (low confidence).

What moves the price

The share trades about 5% below its 52-week high and 22% above its 52-week low, currently above its 200-day average.

For context, the median of 10 Healthcare peers we cover trades at −5% fair-value upside, at −73%, LONN screens richer than that median.

Fair Value models

Bear CHF 117.41 Fair Value CHF 151.69 Bull CHF 177.42
Model ⓘEach model values the company its own way (discounted cash flow, earnings, assets, dividends). The fair value above is their evidence-weighted blend, not the output of a single model. Based on fiscal year 2025 figures (about 9 months old). Earnings retained since then (CHF 5.86 per share) are deliberately not added. Bear ⓘBear = the cautious scenario: the same model computed with conservative anchors (lower growth, margins and valuation multiples). Together with Bull it frames a plausible valuation range, not a price target.BaseBull ⓘBull = the optimistic scenario: the same model computed with favourable anchors (higher growth, margins and valuation multiples). Together with Bear it frames a plausible valuation range, not a price target. Evidence ⓘEvidence = how well-backed THIS model's estimate is for this stock (0–100): how complete and reliable its input data are, and how well the model fits the company. The final Fair Value is an evidence-weighted blend, so better-evidenced models count more. Green ≥70, amber 50–69, grey below 50.
Highest evidence
EPV CHF 117.07 CHF 144.11 CHF 167.77 74
Residual Income CHF 116.13 CHF 130.14 CHF 217.15 74
Owner Earnings CHF 39.79 CHF 85.45 CHF 154.36 73
All 17 models by family
DCF Models
Owner Earnings CHF 39.79 CHF 85.45 CHF 154.36 73
Earnings-Based
Graham-Dodd CHF 92.39 CHF 275.54 CHF 364.86 65
Lynch FV CHF 58.21 CHF 83.15 CHF 108.10 61
PEG = 1.0 CHF 58.21 CHF 83.15 CHF 108.10 57
EPV CHF 117.07 CHF 144.11 CHF 167.77 74
Dividend Discount
Gordon GGM CHF 36.81 CHF 76.53 CHF 121.41 66
DDM Multi-Stage CHF 36.81 CHF 59.74 CHF 80.32 66
Multiples
P/E Multiple CHF 224.19 CHF 298.92 CHF 373.65 63
P/S Multiple CHF 173.24 CHF 230.99 CHF 288.73 58
P/B Multiple CHF 173.24 CHF 230.99 CHF 288.73 55
EV/EBIT CHF 207.08 CHF 291.18 CHF 375.27 65
EV/EBITDA CHF 284.78 CHF 394.78 CHF 504.77 67
EV/Revenue CHF 134.86 CHF 212.03 CHF 289.20 53
Asset-Based
NCAV (Graham) CHF 65.39 CHF 87.62 CHF 130.78 54
Economic Profit
Residual Income CHF 116.13 CHF 130.14 CHF 217.15 74
ROIC Compounder CHF 117.07 CHF 151.69 CHF 201.79 72
Growth Earnings
Growth-Adj P/E CHF 181.86 CHF 259.80 CHF 337.74 67

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Quality Score breakdown

Overall quality 55/100

Of which business quality 53 · Market factors (momentum, volatility) 62

Profitability 38
Margins and returns on capital today
Quality Growth 46
Are margins and returns improving?
Cashflow 30
Earnings quality: real cash, not paper profit
Fin. Strength 64
Balance sheet, leverage, solvency risk
Investment 62
Disciplined investing over empire-building
Low Volatility 78
Calm price path (market factor)
Momentum 54
Price trend over the last 3–12 months (market factor)
52W Momentum 57
Distance to the 52-week high (market factor)
Net Issuance 98
Share count: buybacks or dilution?

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Revenue & earnings trend

Growth Quality ⓘGrowth is valuable only when reinvestment earns attractive returns (Aswath Damodaran): sustainable growth depends on return on capital, reinvestment and efficiency. Basis: total company revenue over the periods shown on the cards (3Y/5Y/all years), not per share, so a merger can show up as a growth jump; per-share earnings growth is in the value-creation card. 31/100
The company is growing, but growth may require heavy reinvestment or weak cash conversion.
Revenue growth 1 year
−0.7%
Revenue growth 3 years ⓘMeasures the company's TOTAL revenue from reported annual statements: compound average growth per year (CAGR) from the fiscal year 3, 5 or N years back to the most recent comparable fiscal year. Not per share: buybacks do not change this number, and a merger can appear as a growth jump. Per-share growth (which does include buybacks) is in the value-creation card.
+1.6%
Revenue growth 5 years ⓘMeasures the company's TOTAL revenue from reported annual statements: compound average growth per year (CAGR) from the fiscal year 3, 5 or N years back to the most recent comparable fiscal year. Not per share: buybacks do not change this number, and a merger can appear as a growth jump. Per-share growth (which does include buybacks) is in the value-creation card.
+7.7%
Start year 2020 (pandemic). Over 10 years: +5.6% a year
Revenue growth 21 years ⓘMeasures the company's TOTAL revenue from reported annual statements: compound average growth per year (CAGR) from the fiscal year 3, 5 or N years back to the most recent comparable fiscal year. Not per share: buybacks do not change this number, and a merger can appear as a growth jump. Per-share growth (which does include buybacks) is in the value-creation card.
+5.4%
What shareholders gained per year (last 5 years) (mathematically smoothed) ⓘWhat the business itself delivers per year: earnings growth per share plus the dividend yield. This is what you get IF the market keeps valuing the stock the same way: it contains no assumption about the market changing its mind. Computed per share, so buybacks count and a merger does not pass as growth. For a company that pays no dividend it is pure earnings growth per share. Period: earnings growth per share as CAGR over the last 5 reported fiscal years (annual statements), plus the current dividend yield. The start value is the median of the three years around the start, so a single crisis year (a pandemic or a write-down) does not distort the rate. Smoothed = median of all growth paths between the years of the window (trend line on the logarithm of earnings per share): a single extreme year cannot distort the rate. The reported figure stays in the tooltip.
−5.5%
Earnings growth per share plus dividend.
Earnings per share, growth per year−6.4%
Dividend (yield on the price)0.9%
Pace: 5 vs 10 years ⓘTwo data points, not a trend model: earnings growth per share over the last 5 fiscal years against the last 10. Labelled "steady" when both rates are within 3 percentage points of each other, otherwise picking up or flattening. Shown only when ten years of history exist.3% vs 10%, slowing
Profit margin 2019 to 2024 ⓘOperating margin then vs now, from reported annual statements. A falling margin after a boom year is the classic peak-earnings signal: the growth rate then leans on an inflated base.22% → 15%
2025 sits 52% above its own trend. The rate follows the median trend of the last 5 years, not that single year.
Start year 2020 (pandemic)

LONN screens 270% overvalued. Compare with Thermo Fisher Scientific Inc →

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Peer GroupⓘHow this stock ranks against its industry: the green marker is this stock, the band is the typical 25–75% peer range, and the tick is the median.Diagnostics & Research · 142 stocks

Beats the industry median on 5/14 measures
Overall it trails its industry peers.
Valuation
Quality Score 55 · Above median
Fair Value upside −73% · Bottom 25%
Profitability
Return on equity (TTM) 10% · Above median
Return on assets 5% · Above median
Net margin (TTM) −4% · Below median
Operating margin (TTM) 21% · Top 25%
Growth and dividend
Revenue growth 17% · Above median
Dividend yield (TTM) 0.9% · Below median
Balance sheet
Debt / equity 0.42× · Highest 25%

Valuation Multiplesvs Diagnostics & Research median · lower = cheaper

P/E (TTM) 43.2× · Pricier than median
P/B 5.25× · Priciest 25%
P/S (TTM) 7.34× · Priciest 25%
EV/EBITDA 23.9× · Priciest 25%
PEG 1.67× · Pricier than median

Strength profile in five axes (Snowflake)

VALUEFUTUREPASTHEALTHDIVIDEND
This stock
VALUEFUTUREPASTHEALTHDIVIDEND
Sector peers
VALUE (fair-value potential)0 · sector 0
FUTURE (revenue growth)85 · sector 24
PAST (return on equity)42 · sector 8
HEALTH (low debt)79 · sector 96
DIVIDEND (yield)18 · sector 29

VALUE 0: the price sits above our fair-value range.

Context: sector, industry, market

Values & ESG

Does this company touch areas you may want to avoid? The classification is inferred from sector and industry.

None of the checked exposures detected

Similar stocks

10 more Diagnostics & Research stocks, each showing price versus our Fair Value estimate.

Stock Price Fair Value vs Fair Value
Thermo Fisher Scientific Inc TMO $658.52 $682.58 +4%
Danaher Corporation DHR $221.09 $207.76 −6%
WuXi AppTec Co 2359 HK$208.00 HK$228.80 +10%
IDEXX Laboratories, Inc IDXX $521.50 $495.84 −5%
Agilent Technologies, Inc A $167.26 $63.90 −62%
Waters Corporation WAT $425.74 $106.31 −75%
IQVIA Holdings IQV $270.09 $295.80 +10%
Illumina, Inc ILMN $247.46 $272.21 +10%
Mettler-Toledo International Inc MTD $1,491 $635.75 −57%
Quest Diagnostics Incorporated DGX $234.76 $170.74 −27%

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CHF 151.69 −270%Fair Value
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Cite: Fair Value Calculator (2026). "Lonza Group AG Fair Value". https://www.fairvalue-calculator.com/stock/LONN

Frequently asked questions

Is Lonza Group AG (LONN) overvalued or undervalued?
As of Sep 23, 2026, our model estimates a fair value of CHF 151.69 versus a price of CHF 561.80, about −73% upside (overvalued).
What is the fair value of LONN?
Our model-based fair value for Lonza Group AG is CHF 151.69 (as of Sep 23, 2026), built from audited fundamentals. The current price: CHF 561.80.
What is the quality score of LONN?
Lonza Group AG has a Quality Score of 55/100. It measures business quality (profitability, growth, cash flow, balance-sheet strength, investment discipline, share issuance). Market factors such as price momentum and volatility do not enter the number; they are shown separately in the detail view.
What is the price target for Lonza Group AG (LONN)?
Our model-based price target is the fair value of CHF 151.69 (as of Sep 23, 2026) from 17 valuation models. Cautious scenario CHF 117.41, optimistic scenario CHF 177.42. It is a calculation from audited fundamentals, not an analyst target.
What is the Lonza Group AG stock forecast for 2026?
Our models put fair value at CHF 151.69, about −73% upside versus a price of CHF 561.80 (overvalued). Cautious scenario CHF 117.41, optimistic scenario CHF 177.42. The calculation is refreshed regularly with new filings.
What is the revenue of Lonza Group AG (LONN)?
Lonza Group AG reported trailing-twelve-month revenue of about CHF 6.5B (latest available figure, as of Sep 23, 2026).
Does Lonza Group AG pay a dividend?
Lonza Group AG currently shows a dividend yield of about 0.89% relative to its recent price (as of Sep 23, 2026).
What is the intrinsic value of Lonza Group AG (LONN)?
Intrinsic value and fair value mean the same thing: what the business is worth on its numbers, independent of the share price. For Lonza Group AG it is CHF 151.69 per share (as of Sep 23, 2026), against a price of CHF 561.80. It is the blended result of 17 valuation models (cash flow, earnings, asset, dividend).
Is Lonza Group AG stock overvalued or undervalued in 2026?
As of Sep 23, 2026, LONN trades above its calculated fair value: price CHF 561.80, fair value CHF 151.69, a gap of about −73% (overvalued). The calculation is refreshed with each new quarterly report, so the verdict can change during the year.
Is fair value the same as the market price of LONN?
No. The price is what the market pays today (CHF 561.80); the fair value is what the company's own numbers justify (CHF 151.69). For Lonza Group AG the two are CHF 410.11 per share apart. That gap is exactly why we show both numbers side by side.
How much is Lonza Group AG worth?
The market values Lonza Group AG at about CHF 39.4B (market capitalisation, as of Sep 23, 2026). Per share that is CHF 561.80; our models calculate a fair value of CHF 151.69 per share.
What do the bullish and bearish scenarios say about LONN?
Our models span a range for Lonza Group AG: cautious scenario CHF 117.41, base CHF 151.69, optimistic CHF 177.42 per share (as of Sep 23, 2026, price CHF 561.80). The range comes from different growth and margin assumptions, not from analyst opinions.
What is the P/E ratio of LONN?
Lonza Group AG trades at a price-to-earnings ratio of 43.2 (as of Sep 23, 2026). A P/E on its own says little: it compares the price with ONE year of profit, while our fair value of CHF 151.69 is built from several models across several years. Other multiples: PEG 1.7, P/B 5.3, P/S 7.3, EV/EBITDA 23.9.
What is the PEG ratio of LONN?
The PEG ratio of Lonza Group AG is 1.67 (P/E divided by earnings growth, as of Sep 23, 2026). That is above 1, so the growth is already paid for in the price.
How solid is the balance sheet of Lonza Group AG (LONN)?
Balance-sheet figures for Lonza Group AG (as of Sep 23, 2026): return on equity 10.5%, debt of 0.42 per unit of equity. They feed the Quality Score of 55/100, which measures business quality independently of the share price.
How far is LONN from its 52-week high?
Lonza Group AG trades at CHF 561.80, about 5% below its 52-week high of CHF 593.80 and 22% above the low of CHF 461.86 (as of Sep 23, 2026). Distance from the high says nothing about value: that is what the fair value of CHF 151.69 is for.
Which stocks are comparable to Lonza Group AG?
From the same area (Healthcare) we also value Thermo Fisher Scientific Inc, Danaher Corporation, WuXi AppTec Co, IDEXX Laboratories, Inc, among others. Each of them has its own fair-value calculation on this site using the same models, so the comparison is like for like.
Is Lonza Group AG stock attractive at the current price?
The data as of Sep 23, 2026: price CHF 561.80, calculated fair value CHF 151.69 (−73%), Quality Score 55/100, from 17 models. Whether that fits your horizon and risk tolerance is your call. We provide the calculation, not investment advice.
How is the fair value of LONN calculated?
We run Lonza Group AG through 17 models from four families: discounted cash flow, earnings models, asset and balance-sheet models, and dividend models. Every model gets the same audited fundamentals; the result is the weighted average of CHF 151.69, with the spread shown as a cautious and an optimistic scenario.
Is it still worth investing in stocks now?
The global stock market currently sits 14.1 % above its aggregate fair value. Lonza Group AG itself currently trades above fair value. An expensive market is no reason to stay out and no reason to buy everything at once: keep a broad savings plan running, buy single stocks only with money you can do without, and hold part of your money liquid while the market is high. The full picture including sectors is on is it worth investing now.
What is the share price of Lonza Group AG (LONN)?
The closing price on Sep 23, 2026 was CHF 561.80. Our model-based fair value is CHF 151.69, about −73% upside (overvalued). We carry closing prices from our data provider, not a live tick.
What should I pay attention to with Lonza Group AG right now?
The price sits above even our optimistic bull case (CHF 177.42). The favourable scenario is already priced in. Solid but not exceptional quality (55/100) and above fair value, neither a clear bargain nor a standout compounder.
Where does the earnings growth of Lonza Group AG (LONN) come from?
Earnings per share at Lonza Group AG grew +8.1 % a year from 2014 to 2025. Broken into its drivers: revenue per share +2.6 %, EBIT margin +2.1 %, tax rate −0.8 %, residual (interest, one-offs) +4.0 %. The four rates multiply to the earnings growth rate, they do not add up. Start and end are three-year averages so a single exceptional year does not distort the result.

Key figures of Lonza Group AG

How large is the market capitalisation of Lonza Group AG (LONN)?
The market capitalisation of Lonza Group AG is CHF 39.4B. The stock-market value of the whole company: share price times number of shares. It is what the market asks for the entire business today.
What is the P/S ratio of Lonza Group AG (LONN)?
The price-to-sales ratio of Lonza Group AG is 6.28 (P/E × margin). Price to sales: market value relative to yearly revenue. Useful when profit is thin or distorted.
What are the earnings per share of Lonza Group AG (LONN)?
Earnings per share at Lonza Group AG are CHF 13.00 (price ÷ EPS = P/E 43.2). Earnings per share over the last twelve months: total profit spread across every single share.
What is the dividend yield of Lonza Group AG (LONN)?
The dividend yield of Lonza Group AG is 0.9% (payout 38.5%). Yearly dividend relative to the share price. 3% pays 3 per 100 invested. Below: how much of profit is used for it.
What is the net margin of Lonza Group AG (LONN)?
The net margin of Lonza Group AG is 14.5% (fiscal year 2025). How much of every unit of revenue ends up as profit. 10% means 10 cents of profit per dollar of sales.
What is the return on equity of Lonza Group AG (LONN)?
The return on equity (ROE) of Lonza Group AG is 10.5% (last twelve months). Profit relative to shareholders' equity, how efficiently the company works with its owners' money.
What is the EBIT return on assets of Lonza Group AG (LONN)?
On an EBIT basis the return on assets of Lonza Group AG is 6.3% (avg 5y). Operating profit (EBIT) relative to everything the company owns, as a multi-year average. It describes the business model rather than one good or bad year.
What is the operating margin of Lonza Group AG (LONN)?
The operating margin of Lonza Group AG is 21.4% (last twelve months). Profit from the core business (before interest and taxes) relative to revenue.
How fast is revenue growing at Lonza Group AG (LONN)?
Revenue at Lonza Group AG is growing +17.0% versus a year earlier (3y avg +1.6%). How much revenue grew versus a year earlier (YoY). The 3-year average next to it puts the single year in context.
How fast are earnings growing at Lonza Group AG (LONN)?
Earnings per share at Lonza Group AG are growing +31.7% versus a year earlier. How much earnings per share grew versus a year earlier.
How much free cash flow does Lonza Group AG (LONN) generate?
The free cash flow of Lonza Group AG is −CHF 204M (fiscal year 2025). The cash truly left after running and investing in the business, this is what pays dividends and buybacks.
How much net debt does Lonza Group AG (LONN) carry?
The net debt of Lonza Group AG is CHF 3.5B (fiscal year 2025). Debt minus cash on hand. The note shows how many years of free cash flow could in theory pay it off.
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