Penumbra Inc (PEN) fair value: what the stock is really worth
As of Nov 4, 2026: fair value (intrinsic value) of Penumbra Inc stock $265, price $322, that is 17.8% below the price, quality 72 out of 100. Rating: overvalued. Calculated from audited financials with 24 of our 26 valuation models and 37 quality factors, updated daily.
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Price vs Fair Value
White line = price, green steps = our fair value per fiscal year. As of Nov 1, 2026.
How to read this chart
60‑month range $116.09 – $359.40 · fair‑value band $141.80 – $352.92 · the $322.45 price screens above the $264.94 fair value. Green steps = our fair value per fiscal year (point-in-time, no hindsight). As of Nov 1, 2026.
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Penumbra, Inc., together with its subsidiaries, designs, develops, manufactures, and markets medical devices in the United States and internationally.
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It offers computer-assisted vacuum thrombectomy; peripheral thrombectomy products, including the Indigo System for power aspiration of thrombus in the body; Lightning Flash, a mechanical thrombectomy system; Lightning Bolt 7, an arterial thrombectomy system; and CAT RX. It also provides access products, including guide catheters and the Penumbra distal delivery catheters under the Neuron, Neuron MAX, BENCHMARK, BMX, DDC, Access25; MIDWAY, and PX SLIM brands; Penumbra System, an integrated mechanical thrombectomy system comprising reperfusion catheters and separators, the 3D Revascularization device, aspiration tubing, aspiration pump, and other components and accessories under the Penumbra RED, SENDit, JET, ACE, BMX, Max, 3D Revascularization Device, and Penumbra ENGINE brands; and neuro embolization coiling systems that include the Penumbra Coil 400, for the treatment of aneurysms and other complex lesions, detachable coils of neurovascular lesions under the Penumbra SMART COIL, SwiftSET, and Penumbra SwiftPAC Coil brands; and POD400 and PAC400 brands.
In addition, it provides peripheral embolization products, such as Ruby Embolization Platform, which consists of detachable coils for peripheral applications; Ruby LP and XL Embolization Platform; Penumbra LANTERN Delivery Microcatheter, a low-profile microcatheter with a high-flow lumen; POD (Penumbra Occlusion Device) System, a single device solution; Packing Coil LP; and Packing Coil, a complementary device for use in other peripheral embolization products.
Further, it offers neurosurgical tools comprising the Artemis Neuro Evacuation Device for surgical removal of fluid and tissue from the ventricles and cerebrum. It sells its products through direct sales organizations and distributors.
The company was incorporated in 2004 and is based in Alameda, California.
Stock analysis
Penumbra Inc (PEN) currently trades at $322.45, while our model-based Fair Value estimate is $264.94, 18% below the price, so the stock looks overvalued today.
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Valuation
Bull case: the Growth Earnings group reads highest at a median of $135.74 per share, and 0 of the 24 models we run sit above the $322.45 price.
Bear case: the Economic Profit group reads lowest at $42.41, and 24 of the 24 models stay below the price. Data coverage for this calculation is medium.
Scenario range: $141.80 (bear) to $352.92 (bull), the price of $322.45 sits inside it. Bear and bull are the same models on cautious and optimistic assumptions, a range, not a price target.
Quality & growth
The Quality Score stands at 72/100 (solid quality), in the Healthcare sector.
Healthy Growth: Revenue growth appears healthy and is supported by profitability and cash-flow quality.
Penumbra Inc reported revenue of $1.4B in FY2025 versus $748M in FY2021, a compound +17.1%/yr. Reported net income was $178M in FY2025, compounding +186.9%/yr from FY2021. FY2021 was a trough year, so the rate overstates the trend.
Key figures
Market cap $12.8B Large · P/E ratio 81.2 · P/S ratio 8.18 · EPS (TTM) $3.97 · Net margin 10.1% · Return on equity 10.7% · Return on assets (EBIT) 3.1% · Operating margin 12.4%.
Competitive moat
Our AI-assisted moat analysis scores the competitive advantage at 58 out of 100 (medium confidence).
What moves the price
The share trades about 10% below its 52-week high and 43% above its 52-week low, currently below its 200-day average.
For context, the median of 10 Healthcare peers we cover trades at 5% fair-value upside, at −18%, PEN screens richer than that median.
Fair Value models
Bear$141.80Fair Value $264.94Bull$352.92
Price $322.45 · Downside -17.8%
Model ⓘEach model values the company its own way (discounted cash flow, earnings, assets, dividends). The fair value above starts from their evidence-weighted blend, not from a single model. In cyclical trough or peak years, after dilution or a stock split it is adjusted afterwards, so it can sit above or below the models. Based on fiscal year 2025 figures (about 10 months old). Earnings retained since then ($3.37 per share) are deliberately not added.Bear ⓘBear = the cautious scenario: the same model computed with conservative anchors (lower growth, margins and valuation multiples). Together with Bull it frames a plausible valuation range, not a price target.BaseBull ⓘBull = the optimistic scenario: the same model computed with favourable anchors (higher growth, margins and valuation multiples). Together with Bear it frames a plausible valuation range, not a price target. If a model's bull case is above four times its base value, the table shows that limit with a > sign (like the overall Bull above): beyond it no assumption holds.Coverage ⓘCoverage = how well-backed THIS model's estimate is for this stock (0–100): how complete and reliable its input data are, and how well the model fits the company. The final Fair Value is an evidence-weighted blend, so better-evidenced models count more. Green ≥70, amber 50–69, grey below 50.
In the last 6 months, no officer or director bought or sold shares on the open market.
SaleHarpreet GrewalDirector3× since Dec 2, 2025: 386 shares, avg. $311.58$120,271Apr 2, 202610b5-1 plan
SaleMaggie YuenChief Financial Officer2,432 shares at $342.30$832,474Mar 2, 202610b5-1 plan
SaleThomas WilderDirector186 shares at $310.72$57,794Jan 2, 202610b5-1 plan
SaleArani BoseDirector3× since Nov 21, 2025: 30,000 shares, avg. $302.10$9.1MDec 11, 202510b5-1 plan
SaleJohanna RobertsEVP, Gen. Counsel & Secretary4× since Nov 10, 2025: 3,300 shares, avg. $293.12$967,302Dec 5, 202510b5-1 plan
Plus 4 other filings such as grants, option exercises or tax withholding. They are not market purchases or sales.
Sales are often planned (taxes, diversification, 10b5-1 plans). Purchases with their own money are seen as the stronger sign. For information only: not part of the quality score or Fair Value.
Growth Quality ⓘGrowth is valuable only when reinvestment earns attractive returns (Aswath Damodaran): sustainable growth depends on return on capital, reinvestment and efficiency. Basis: total company revenue over the periods shown on the cards (3Y/5Y/all years), not per share, so a merger can show up as a growth jump; per-share earnings growth is in the value-creation card.95/100
Revenue growth appears healthy and is supported by profitability and cash-flow quality.
Revenue growth 1 year
+17.5%
Revenue growth 3 years ⓘMeasures the company's TOTAL revenue from reported annual statements: compound average growth per year (CAGR) from the fiscal year 3, 5 or N years back to the most recent comparable fiscal year. Not per share: buybacks do not change this number, and a merger can appear as a growth jump. Per-share growth (which does include buybacks) is in the value-creation card.
+18.3%
Revenue growth 5 years ⓘMeasures the company's TOTAL revenue from reported annual statements: compound average growth per year (CAGR) from the fiscal year 3, 5 or N years back to the most recent comparable fiscal year. Not per share: buybacks do not change this number, and a merger can appear as a growth jump. Per-share growth (which does include buybacks) is in the value-creation card.
+20.2%
Start year 2020 (pandemic). Over 10 years: +22.4% a year
Revenue growth 13 years ⓘMeasures the company's TOTAL revenue from reported annual statements: compound average growth per year (CAGR) from the fiscal year 3, 5 or N years back to the most recent comparable fiscal year. Not per share: buybacks do not change this number, and a merger can appear as a growth jump. Per-share growth (which does include buybacks) is in the value-creation card.
+25.5%
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What shareholders gained per year (last 5 years) ⓘWhat the business itself delivers per year: earnings growth per share plus the dividend yield. This is what you get IF the market keeps valuing the stock the same way: it contains no assumption about the market changing its mind. Computed per share, so buybacks count and a merger does not pass as growth. For a company that pays no dividend it is pure earnings growth per share. Period: earnings growth per share as CAGR over the last 5 reported fiscal years (annual statements), plus the current dividend yield. The start value is the median of the three years around the start, so a single crisis year (a pandemic or a write-down) does not distort the rate.
≈ +45.1%
Earnings growth per share plus dividend.
Earnings per share, growth per year+45.1%
Dividend (yield on the price)0.0%
Pace: 5 vs 10 years ⓘTwo data points, not a trend model: earnings growth per share over the last 5 fiscal years against the last 10. Labelled "steady" when both rates are within 3 percentage points of each other, otherwise picking up or flattening. Shown only when ten years of history exist.45.1% vs 39.1%, picking up
Profit margin 2020 to 2025 ⓘOperating margin then vs now, from reported annual statements. A falling margin after a boom year is the classic peak-earnings signal: the growth rate then leans on an inflated base.−7% → 14%
Pace: the 5-year rate starts in 2020 (pandemic)
⚠ Approximate: the rate leans on 2025, which sits 238% above its own trend.
Growth Forecast
A lot of optimism in the price
The price assumes more growth than the company has delivered so far and more than analysts expect.
What the price assumes ⓘThis turns our valuation around: instead of asking what the share is worth, it asks what growth the current price requires. It uses the cash the company keeps after all spending (free cash flow), the same discount rate as our models, five years of growth, then slowing evenly to 2 % a year by year ten. Compared with the analysts' sales forecasts extended to the same five years (at least three analysts, for context only, it does not enter the Fair Value): within 3 percentage points counts as "in line" (amber), below that little optimism (green), above that a lot of optimism (red).
+30.2%
Yearly growth needed for the next five years to justify today's price.
What forecasts expect ⓘAnalysts publish sales forecasts for the next two fiscal years. For the years after that, growth slows evenly to 2 % a year by year ten (2 % is the long-run rate our models use). Projected years are marked as such.
+11.1%
Yearly sales growth analysts expect, extended to five years.
After inflation (USA: IMF forecast 2.4% a year to 2030, 3.1% from 2016 to 2025) that is about +27.2% a year for the price and +8.6% for the forecasts.
News mood ⓘNews mood, the average tone of recent news (97 articles), rated against how stocks are usually covered. 🚀 Hype = unusually upbeat · 🙂 Positive = above average · 😐 Neutral = typical · 🙁 Negative = below average · 😨 Very negative = unusually downbeat. It reflects the tone of coverage, not our valuation.Hype
Recent news coverage is unusually upbeat, far more positive than stocks are typically covered.
AI conclusion: Penumbra's strong margins point to pricing power in its clot-removal devices, yet limited public evidence of a durable moat leaves its competitive position only moderately supported.
Main risk: Competitors such as Inari Medical (now under Stryker) with FlowTriever or Boston Scientific with EKOS could capture customers in pulmonary embolism and DVT thrombectomy or pressure prices and margins through direct device competition.
Bull case: Penumbra could strengthen its position through superior clinical evidence from trials like STORM-PE and BOLT-DVT or integration with Boston Scientific to outpace rivals in adoption of its computer-assisted vacuum thrombectomy technology.
Bear case: If rivals gain ground with alternative devices or regulatory and acquisition issues persist, Penumbra might see slower adoption of its products, reduced procedure volumes or squeezed margins in the thrombectomy market.
Penumbra's latest STORM-PE subset data link its clot removal technology to stronger real-world recovery tracked by everyday wearables in pulmonary embolism patients. This evidence could widen use of its devices beyond traditional hospital metrics. Our models currently see the business as overvalued. Will the clinical edge expand its addressable market faster than rivals in the space erode margins?
Price, fair value, quality and upside side by side.
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Peer GroupⓘHow this stock ranks against its industry: the green marker is this stock, the band is the typical 25–75% peer range, and the tick is the median.Medical Devices · 320 stocks
Beats the industry median on 7/13 measures
A mixed picture versus its industry peers.
Valuation
Quality Score72 · Top 25%
Fair Value upside−17.8% · Above median
Profitability
Return on equity (12 months)10.7% · Above median
Return on assets9.7% · Top 25%
Net margin (12 months)10.1% · Above median
Operating margin (12 months)12.4% · Above median
Growth and dividend
Revenue growth (quarter YoY)15.6% · Above median
Valuation Multiplesvs Medical Devices median · lower = cheaper
For bloggers, editors and developers: paste this into your site or blog (a “Custom HTML” block in WordPress), it shows the current fair value and links back here. Free, plain HTML, and welcome. Full data streams (CSV/JSON) at /developers.
Cite: Fair Value Calculator (2026). "Penumbra Inc Fair Value". https://www.fairvalue-calculator.com/stock/PEN
Frequently asked questions
Is Penumbra Inc (PEN) overvalued or undervalued?
As of Nov 1, 2026, our model estimates a fair value of $264.94 versus a price of $322.45, about 18% lower (overvalued).
What is the fair value of PEN?
Our model-based fair value for Penumbra Inc is $264.94 (as of Nov 1, 2026), built from audited fundamentals. The current price: $322.45.
What is the quality score of PEN?
Penumbra Inc has a Quality Score of 72/100. It measures business quality (profitability, growth, cash flow, balance-sheet strength, investment discipline, share issuance). Market factors such as price momentum and volatility do not enter the number; they are shown separately in the detail view.
What is the price target for Penumbra Inc (PEN)?
Our model-based price target is the fair value of $264.94 (as of Nov 1, 2026) from 24 valuation models. Cautious scenario $141.80, optimistic scenario $352.92. It is a calculation from audited fundamentals, not an analyst target.
What is the Penumbra Inc stock forecast for 2026?
Our models put fair value at $264.94, about 18% lower versus a price of $322.45 (overvalued). Cautious scenario $141.80, optimistic scenario $352.92. The calculation is refreshed regularly with new filings.
What is the revenue of Penumbra Inc (PEN)?
Penumbra Inc reported trailing-twelve-month revenue of about $1.6B (latest available figure, as of Nov 1, 2026).
What growth is priced into Penumbra Inc (PEN)?
For today's price to be fair in a discounted-cash-flow model, Penumbra Inc would have to grow free cash flow by +30.2 % per year for five years (discount rate 8.5 %, then slowing evenly to 2 % perpetual growth by year ten). Over the last 5 years revenue grew +20.2 % per year. As of Nov 1, 2026.
What discount rate (WACC) does the fair value of PEN use?
Our models discount Penumbra Inc at 8.5 %: a base by market capitalisation (large), damped by beta 0.70, country premium for USA. The same rate applies in all 26 models.
What is a reverse DCF?
A reverse DCF turns the usual calculation around. Instead of deriving a value from assumptions, it takes today's price as given and asks: what free-cash-flow growth would a company have to deliver for exactly this price to be fair? The result is not a forecast but the expectation already priced in. For Penumbra Inc that is +30.2 % per year a year over ten years, using the same discount rate (8.5 %) and the same formula as our fair value.
How much growth has Penumbra Inc (PEN) delivered so far?
Over the past 5 years revenue at Penumbra Inc grew +20.2 % a year. The price currently implies +30.2 % per year free-cash-flow growth a year. Comparing the two shows how much confidence is in the price: if it demands more than has been delivered, the business has to accelerate for the maths to work.
How fast is the sector of Penumbra Inc (PEN) growing?
The median revenue growth in the sector is +6.2 % a year. That is the yardstick for the growth priced into Penumbra Inc (+30.2 % per year a year): it shows whether the expectation is within the usual range or beyond it.
What is the free cash flow yield of Penumbra Inc (PEN)?
The free-cash-flow yield on the price is 1.37 %: that much free cash flow Penumbra Inc produces per unit of market value. When it exceeds the discount rate of our models (8.5 %), the business already earns more than its cost of capital demands, and the price needs little additional growth.
What is the intrinsic value of Penumbra Inc (PEN)?
Intrinsic value and fair value mean the same thing: what the business is worth on its numbers, independent of the share price. For Penumbra Inc it is $264.94 per share (as of Nov 1, 2026), against a price of $322.45. It is the blended result of 24 valuation models (cash flow, earnings, asset, dividend).
Is Penumbra Inc stock overvalued or undervalued in 2026?
As of Nov 1, 2026, PEN trades above its calculated fair value: price $322.45, fair value $264.94, a gap of about −18% (overvalued). The calculation is refreshed with each new quarterly report, so the verdict can change during the year.
Is fair value the same as the market price of PEN?
No. The price is what the market pays today ($322.45); the fair value is what the company's own numbers justify ($264.94). For Penumbra Inc the two are $57.51 per share apart. That gap is exactly why we show both numbers side by side.
How much is Penumbra Inc worth?
The market values Penumbra Inc at about $12.8B (market capitalisation, as of Nov 1, 2026). Per share that is $322.45; our models calculate a fair value of $264.94 per share.
What do the bullish and bearish scenarios say about PEN?
Our models span a range for Penumbra Inc: cautious scenario $141.80, base $264.94, optimistic $352.92 per share (as of Nov 1, 2026, price $322.45). The range comes from different growth and margin assumptions, not from analyst opinions.
What is the P/E ratio of PEN?
Penumbra Inc trades at a price-to-earnings ratio of 81.2 (as of Nov 1, 2026). A P/E on its own says little: it compares the price with ONE year of profit, while our fair value of $264.94 is built from several models across several years. Excluding one-off items of fiscal year 2025 it is 91.9 (reported for FY2025: 71.3). Median P/E at fiscal year-end, 8 fiscal years (2016 to 2025), reported earnings, FY2018, FY2019, FY2024 ex one-offs: 304.1. Other multiples: PEG 3.6, P/B 8.9, P/S 8.2, EV/EBITDA 60.1.
What is the PEG ratio of PEN?
The PEG ratio of Penumbra Inc is 3.59 (P/E divided by earnings growth, as of Nov 1, 2026). That is above 1, so the growth is already paid for in the price.
How solid is the balance sheet of Penumbra Inc (PEN)?
Balance-sheet figures for Penumbra Inc (as of Nov 1, 2026): return on equity 10.7%. They feed the Quality Score of 72/100, which measures business quality independently of the share price.
How far is PEN from its 52-week high?
Penumbra Inc trades at $322.45, about 10% below its 52-week high of $359.40 and 43% above the low of $225.54 (as of Nov 4, 2026). Distance from the high says nothing about value: that is what the fair value of $264.94 is for.
Which stocks are comparable to Penumbra Inc?
From the same area (Healthcare) we also value Abbott Laboratories,, Medtronic plc, Stryker Corporation, Boston Scientific Corporation, among others. Each of them has its own fair-value calculation on this site using the same models, so the comparison is like for like.
Is Penumbra Inc stock attractive at the current price?
The data as of Nov 1, 2026: price $322.45, calculated fair value $264.94 (−18%), Quality Score 72/100, from 24 models. Whether that fits your horizon and risk tolerance is your call. We provide the calculation, not investment advice.
How is the fair value of PEN calculated?
We run Penumbra Inc through 24 models from four families: discounted cash flow, earnings models, asset and balance-sheet models, and dividend models. Every model gets the same audited fundamentals; the result is the weighted average of $264.94, with the spread shown as a cautious and an optimistic scenario.
Is it still worth investing in stocks now?
The global stock market currently sits 15.5% above its aggregate fair value. Penumbra Inc itself currently trades above fair value. An expensive market is no reason to stay out and no reason to buy everything at once: keep a broad savings plan running, buy single stocks only with money you can do without, and hold part of your money liquid while the market is high. The full picture including sectors is on is it worth investing now.
What is the share price of Penumbra Inc (PEN)?
The closing price on Nov 4, 2026 was $322.45. Our model-based fair value is $264.94, about 18% lower (overvalued). We carry closing prices from our data provider, not a live tick.
What should I pay attention to with Penumbra Inc right now?
Solid but not exceptional quality (72/100) and above fair value, neither a clear bargain nor a standout compounder. A fairly wide model range ($141.80 to $352.92) leaves room in how you read the outcome.
Where does the earnings growth of Penumbra Inc (PEN) come from?
Earnings per share at Penumbra Inc grew +37.2 % a year from 2014 to 2025. Broken into its drivers: revenue per share +15.3 %, EBIT margin +13.1 %, tax rate +3.9 %, residual (interest, one-offs) +1.3 %. The four rates multiply to the earnings growth rate, they do not add up. Start and end are three-year averages so a single exceptional year does not distort the result.
Key figures of Penumbra Inc
How large is the market capitalisation of Penumbra Inc (PEN)?
The market capitalisation of Penumbra Inc is $12.8B. The stock-market value of the whole company: share price times number of shares. It is what the market asks for the entire business today.
What is the P/S ratio of Penumbra Inc (PEN)?
The price-to-sales ratio of Penumbra Inc is 8.18 (last twelve months). Price to sales: market value relative to yearly revenue. Useful when profit is thin or distorted.
What are the earnings per share of Penumbra Inc (PEN)?
Earnings per share at Penumbra Inc are $3.97 (price ÷ EPS = P/E 81.2). Earnings per share over the last twelve months: total profit spread across every single share.
What is the net margin of Penumbra Inc (PEN)?
The net margin of Penumbra Inc is 10.1% (last twelve months). How much of every unit of revenue ends up as profit. 10% means 10 cents of profit per dollar of sales.
What is the return on equity of Penumbra Inc (PEN)?
The return on equity (ROE) of Penumbra Inc is 10.7% (last twelve months). Profit relative to shareholders' equity, how efficiently the company works with its owners' money.
What is the EBIT return on assets of Penumbra Inc (PEN)?
On an EBIT basis the return on assets of Penumbra Inc is 3.1% (avg 5y). Operating profit (EBIT) relative to everything the company owns, as a multi-year average. It describes the business model rather than one good or bad year.
What is the operating margin of Penumbra Inc (PEN)?
The operating margin of Penumbra Inc is 12.4% (last twelve months). Profit from the core business (before interest and taxes) relative to revenue.
How fast is revenue growing at Penumbra Inc (PEN)?
Revenue at Penumbra Inc is growing +15.6% versus a year earlier (3y avg +18.3%). How much revenue grew versus a year earlier (YoY). The 3-year average next to it puts the single year in context.
How fast are earnings growing at Penumbra Inc (PEN)?
Earnings per share at Penumbra Inc are growing −8.5% versus a year earlier. How much earnings per share grew versus a year earlier.
How much net debt does Penumbra Inc (PEN) carry?
The net debt of Penumbra Inc is $32.8M (fiscal year 2025, ≈ 0.2 yrs of FCF). Debt minus cash on hand. The note shows how many years of free cash flow could in theory pay it off.
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Nov 1, 2026