Palomar Holdings Inc (PLMR) fair value: what the stock is really worth
As of Nov 6, 2026: fair value (intrinsic value) of Palomar Holdings Inc stock $70.06, price $156, that is 55.0% below the price, quality 75 out of 100. Rating: strongly overvalued. Calculated from audited financials with 6 of our 26 valuation models and 37 quality factors, updated daily.
69 individual criteria per stock, every one traceableSee the method →
Price vs Fair Value
White line = price, green steps = our fair value per fiscal year. As of Nov 7, 2026.
How to read this chart
60‑month range $44.13 – $175.06 · fair‑value band $52.23 – $87.58 · the $155.71 price screens above the $70.06 fair value. Green steps = our fair value per fiscal year (point-in-time, no hindsight). As of Nov 7, 2026.
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Palomar Holdings, Inc., a specialty insurance company, provides property and casualty insurance to individuals and businesses in the United States.
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The company offers personal and commercial specialty insurance products, including residential and commercial earthquake; fronting; and inland marine and other property products, such as inland marine, Hawaii hurricane, excess national property, residential flood, and other property products, as well as assumed reinsurance and crop insurance products.
It markets and distributes its products through retail agents, program administrators, wholesale brokers, and strategic partnerships.
The company was formerly known as GC Palomar Holdings and changed its name to Palomar Holdings, Inc. The company was incorporated in 2013 and is headquartered in La Jolla, California.
Stock analysis
Palomar Holdings Inc (PLMR) currently trades at $155.71, while our model-based Fair Value estimate is $70.06, 55% below the price, so the stock looks overvalued today.
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Valuation
Bull case: the Economic Profit group reads highest at a median of $77.98 per share, and 0 of the 6 models we run sit above the $155.71 price.
Bear case: the Dividend Discount group reads lowest at $11.74, and 6 of the 6 models stay below the price. Data coverage for this calculation is high.
Scenario range: $52.23 (bear) to $87.58 (bull), the price of $155.71 sits above it. Bear and bull are the same models on cautious and optimistic assumptions, a range, not a price target.
Quality & growth
The Quality Score stands at 75/100 (high quality), in the Financial Services sector.
Healthy Growth: Revenue growth appears healthy and is supported by profitability and cash-flow quality.
Palomar Holdings Inc reported revenue of $876M in FY2025 versus $248M in FY2021, a compound +37.1%/yr. Reported net income was $197M in FY2025, compounding +44.0%/yr from FY2021.
Key figures
Market cap $4.2B Mid · P/E ratio 19.5 · P/S ratio 3.42 · EPS (TTM) $7.98 · Dividend yield 0.3% · Net margin 17.6% · Return on equity 23.3% · Return on assets (EBIT) 7.1% (5-year average).
Competitive moat
Our AI-assisted moat analysis scores the competitive advantage at 74 out of 100 (low confidence).
What moves the price
The share trades at its 52-week high and 54% above its 52-week low, currently above its 200-day average.
For context, the median of 10 Financial Services peers we cover trades at −29% fair-value upside, at −55%, PLMR screens richer than that median.
Fair Value models
The price assumes far more growth than our models allow for, so the models scatter widely ($10.58 to $97.45). Read the Fair Value as a cautious anchor, not a price target; the Growth Forecast section shows what the price assumes.
Bear$52.23Fair Value $70.06Bull$87.58
Price $155.71 · Downside -55.0%
Model ⓘEach model values the company its own way (discounted cash flow, earnings, assets, dividends). The fair value above starts from their evidence-weighted blend, not from a single model. In cyclical trough or peak years, after dilution or a stock split it is adjusted afterwards, so it can sit above or below the models. Based on fiscal year 2025 figures (about 10 months old). Earnings retained since then ($6.44 per share) are deliberately not added.Bear ⓘBear = the cautious scenario: the same model computed with conservative anchors (lower growth, margins and valuation multiples). Together with Bull it frames a plausible valuation range, not a price target.BaseBull ⓘBull = the optimistic scenario: the same model computed with favourable anchors (higher growth, margins and valuation multiples). Together with Bear it frames a plausible valuation range, not a price target. If a model's bull case is above four times its base value, the table shows that limit with a > sign (like the overall Bull above): beyond it no assumption holds.Coverage ⓘCoverage = how well-backed THIS model's estimate is for this stock (0–100): how complete and reliable its input data are, and how well the model fits the company. The final Fair Value is an evidence-weighted blend, so better-evidenced models count more. Green ≥70, amber 50–69, grey below 50.
In the last 6 months, one officer or director bought shares worth $135, on Sep 2, 2026. Over the same period, 6 people sold shares worth $12.7M.
SaleMac ArmstrongCEO and Chairman, Director17× since Nov 21, 2025: 133,336 shares, avg. $128.53$17.1MOct 21, 2026
BuyDaryl BradleyDirector1.02 shares at $131.96$135Sep 2, 2026
SaleJon ChristiansonPresident11× since Nov 18, 2025: 22,249 shares, avg. $132.16$2.9MAug 18, 2026
SaleT Christopher UchidaChief Financial Officer6× since Nov 18, 2025: 7,113 shares, avg. $122.67$872,580Aug 18, 2026
SaleJonathan KnutzenChief Risk Officer7× since Nov 18, 2025: 3,345 shares, avg. $122.03$408,203Aug 18, 2026
SaleRodolphe HerveChief Operating Officer2× since Jan 29, 2026: 1,632 shares, avg. $131.88$215,234Jul 31, 2026
SaleTimothy CarterChief People Officer2× since Jan 29, 2026: 734 shares, avg. $123.51$90,657Jun 28, 2026
SaleAngela L. GrantChief Legal Officer3× since Jan 28, 2026: 2,104 shares, avg. $120.52$253,571Jan 31, 2026
Plus 19 other filings such as grants, option exercises or tax withholding. They are not market purchases or sales.
Sales are often planned (taxes, diversification, 10b5-1 plans). Purchases with their own money are seen as the stronger sign. For information only: not part of the quality score or Fair Value.
Growth Quality ⓘGrowth is valuable only when reinvestment earns attractive returns (Aswath Damodaran): sustainable growth depends on return on capital, reinvestment and efficiency. Basis: total company revenue over the periods shown on the cards (3Y/5Y/all years), not per share, so a merger can show up as a growth jump; per-share earnings growth is in the value-creation card.100/100
Revenue growth appears healthy and is supported by profitability and cash-flow quality.
Revenue growth 1 year
+58.2%
Revenue growth 3 years ⓘMeasures the company's TOTAL revenue from reported annual statements: compound average growth per year (CAGR) from the fiscal year 3, 5 or N years back to the most recent comparable fiscal year. Not per share: buybacks do not change this number, and a merger can appear as a growth jump. Per-share growth (which does include buybacks) is in the value-creation card.
+38.9%
Revenue growth 5 years ⓘMeasures the company's TOTAL revenue from reported annual statements: compound average growth per year (CAGR) from the fiscal year 3, 5 or N years back to the most recent comparable fiscal year. Not per share: buybacks do not change this number, and a merger can appear as a growth jump. Per-share growth (which does include buybacks) is in the value-creation card.
+39.1%
Start year 2020 (pandemic)
Revenue growth 9 years ⓘMeasures the company's TOTAL revenue from reported annual statements: compound average growth per year (CAGR) from the fiscal year 3, 5 or N years back to the most recent comparable fiscal year. Not per share: buybacks do not change this number, and a merger can appear as a growth jump. Per-share growth (which does include buybacks) is in the value-creation card.
+39.9%
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What shareholders gained per year (last 5 years) ⓘWhat the business itself delivers per year: earnings growth per share plus the dividend yield. This is what you get IF the market keeps valuing the stock the same way: it contains no assumption about the market changing its mind. Computed per share, so buybacks count and a merger does not pass as growth. For a company that pays no dividend it is pure earnings growth per share. Period: earnings growth per share as CAGR over the last 5 reported fiscal years (annual statements), plus the current dividend yield. The start value is the median of the three years around the start, so a single crisis year (a pandemic or a write-down) does not distort the rate. Basis: adjusted.
+57.5%
Earnings growth per share plus dividend.
Earnings per share, growth per year+57.2%
Dividend (yield on the price)0.3%
Pace: 5 vs 10 years ⓘTwo data points, not a trend model: earnings growth per share over the last 5 fiscal years against the last 10. Labelled "steady" when both rates are within 3 percentage points of each other, otherwise picking up or flattening. Shown only when ten years of history exist.71.3% vs 37.7%, picking up
Profit margin 2020 to 2025 ⓘOperating margin then vs now, from reported annual statements. A falling margin after a boom year is the classic peak-earnings signal: the growth rate then leans on an inflated base.4% → 29%
Pace: the 5-year rate starts in 2020 (pandemic)
Growth Forecast
Little optimism in the price
The price assumes less growth than the company has delivered so far and less than analysts expect.
What the price assumes ⓘThis turns our valuation around: instead of asking what the share is worth, it asks what growth the current price requires. It uses the cash the company keeps after all spending (free cash flow), the same discount rate as our models, five years of growth, then slowing evenly to 2 % a year by year ten. Compared with the analysts' sales forecasts extended to the same five years (at least three analysts, for context only, it does not enter the Fair Value): within 3 percentage points counts as "in line" (amber), below that little optimism (green), above that a lot of optimism (red).
−8.0%
The company could shrink this much every year for the next five years and today's price would still be justified.
What forecasts expect ⓘAnalysts publish sales forecasts for the next two fiscal years. For the years after that, growth slows evenly to 2 % a year by year ten (2 % is the long-run rate our models use). Projected years are marked as such.
+23.1%
Yearly sales growth analysts expect, extended to five years.
After inflation (USA: IMF forecast 2.4% a year to 2030, 3.1% from 2016 to 2025) that is about −10.2% a year for the price and +20.2% for the forecasts.
News mood ⓘNews mood, the average tone of recent news (98 articles), rated against how stocks are usually covered. 🚀 Hype = unusually upbeat · 🙂 Positive = above average · 😐 Neutral = typical · 🙁 Negative = below average · 😨 Very negative = unusually downbeat. It reflects the tone of coverage, not our valuation.Positive
Recent news coverage is more positive than average.
AI conclusion: Main strength lies in diversification through the surety acquisition that supports premium growth, while the weak point remains thin signals of durable advantage and limited external validation.
Main risk: Slips in integration and underwriting discipline after the Gray Surety acquisition could pressure the combined ratio across the expanded surety and specialty operations.
Palomar integrated the Gray Surety acquisition early this year, materially expanding its surety portfolio alongside core specialty lines. This diversification supports premium growth yet could pressure the combined ratio if integration and underwriting discipline slip. Our models see the stock as overvalued. Will the new surety scale strengthen margins over time or introduce risks that offset the gains?
Price, fair value, quality and upside side by side.
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Peer GroupⓘHow this stock ranks against its industry: the green marker is this stock, the band is the typical 25–75% peer range, and the tick is the median.Insurance - Property & Casualty · 100 stocks
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Is Palomar Holdings Inc (PLMR) overvalued or undervalued?
As of Nov 7, 2026, our model estimates a fair value of $70.06 versus a price of $155.71, about 55% lower (overvalued).
What is the fair value of PLMR?
Our model-based fair value for Palomar Holdings Inc is $70.06 (as of Nov 7, 2026), built from audited fundamentals. The current price: $155.71.
What is the quality score of PLMR?
Palomar Holdings Inc has a Quality Score of 75/100. It measures business quality (profitability, growth, cash flow, balance-sheet strength, investment discipline, share issuance). Market factors such as price momentum and volatility do not enter the number; they are shown separately in the detail view.
What is the price target for Palomar Holdings Inc (PLMR)?
Our model-based price target is the fair value of $70.06 (as of Nov 7, 2026) from 6 valuation models. Cautious scenario $52.23, optimistic scenario $87.58. It is a calculation from audited fundamentals, not an analyst target.
What is the Palomar Holdings Inc stock forecast for 2026?
Our models put fair value at $70.06, about 55% lower versus a price of $155.71 (overvalued). Cautious scenario $52.23, optimistic scenario $87.58. The calculation is refreshed regularly with new filings.
What is the revenue of Palomar Holdings Inc (PLMR)?
Palomar Holdings Inc reported trailing-twelve-month revenue of about $1.2B (latest available figure, as of Nov 7, 2026).
Does Palomar Holdings Inc pay a dividend?
Palomar Holdings Inc currently shows a dividend yield of 0.29% relative to its recent price (as of Nov 7, 2026).
How much is the dividend of Palomar Holdings Inc (PLMR) and when is the ex-dividend date?
Palomar Holdings Inc pays a dividend of $0.45 per share a year, a dividend yield of 0.3%. The last ex-dividend date was Aug 19, 2026. The payout ratio is 5.6% of earnings. Free cash flow covers the dividend 33.98 times. Our assessment: Well covered. A low payout and the dividend is fully funded by free cash flow, a comfortable, sustainable dividend.
What growth is priced into Palomar Holdings Inc (PLMR)?
For today's price to be fair in a discounted-cash-flow model, Palomar Holdings Inc would have to grow free cash flow by -8.0 % per year for five years (discount rate 8.5 %, then slowing evenly to 2 % perpetual growth by year ten). Over the last 5 years revenue grew +39.1 % per year. As of Nov 7, 2026.
What discount rate (WACC) does the fair value of PLMR use?
Our models discount Palomar Holdings Inc at 8.5 %: a base by market capitalisation (mid), damped by beta 0.24, country premium for USA. The same rate applies in all 26 models.
What is a reverse DCF?
A reverse DCF turns the usual calculation around. Instead of deriving a value from assumptions, it takes today's price as given and asks: what free-cash-flow growth would a company have to deliver for exactly this price to be fair? The result is not a forecast but the expectation already priced in. For Palomar Holdings Inc that is -8.0 % per year for five years, then slowing evenly to 2 % by year ten, using the same discount rate (8.5 %) and the same formula as our fair value.
How much growth has Palomar Holdings Inc (PLMR) delivered so far?
Over the past 5 years revenue at Palomar Holdings Inc grew +39.1 % a year. The price currently implies free-cash-flow growth of -8.0 % per year. Comparing the two shows how much confidence is in the price: if it demands more than has been delivered, the business has to accelerate for the maths to work.
How fast is the sector of Palomar Holdings Inc (PLMR) growing?
The median revenue growth in the sector is +9.2 % a year. That is the yardstick for the growth priced into Palomar Holdings Inc (-8.0 % per year): it shows whether the expectation is within the usual range or beyond it.
What is the free cash flow yield of Palomar Holdings Inc (PLMR)?
The free-cash-flow yield on the price is 9.54 %: that much free cash flow Palomar Holdings Inc produces per unit of market value. When it exceeds the discount rate of our models (8.5 %), the business already earns more than its cost of capital demands, and the price needs little additional growth.
What is the intrinsic value of Palomar Holdings Inc (PLMR)?
Intrinsic value and fair value mean the same thing: what the business is worth on its numbers, independent of the share price. For Palomar Holdings Inc it is $70.06 per share (as of Nov 7, 2026), against a price of $155.71. It is the blended result of 6 valuation models in 4 families (Dividend Discount, Multiples, Asset-Based, Economic Profit).
Is Palomar Holdings Inc stock overvalued or undervalued in 2026?
As of Nov 7, 2026, PLMR trades above its calculated fair value: price $155.71, fair value $70.06, a gap of about −55% (overvalued). The calculation is refreshed with each new quarterly report, so the verdict can change during the year.
Is fair value the same as the market price of PLMR?
No. The price is what the market pays today ($155.71); the fair value is what the company's own numbers justify ($70.06). For Palomar Holdings Inc the two are $85.65 per share apart. That gap is exactly why we show both numbers side by side.
How much is Palomar Holdings Inc worth?
The market values Palomar Holdings Inc at about $4.2B (market capitalisation, as of Nov 7, 2026). Per share that is $155.71; our models calculate a fair value of $70.06 per share.
What do the bullish and bearish scenarios say about PLMR?
Our models span a range for Palomar Holdings Inc: cautious scenario $52.23, base $70.06, optimistic $87.58 per share (as of Nov 7, 2026, price $155.71). The range comes from different growth and margin assumptions, not from analyst opinions.
What is the P/E ratio of PLMR?
Palomar Holdings Inc trades at a price-to-earnings ratio of 19.5 (as of Nov 7, 2026). A P/E on its own says little: it compares the price with ONE year of profit, while our fair value of $70.06 is built from several models across several years. Median P/E at fiscal year-end, 7 fiscal years (2019 to 2025), reported earnings, FY2023 ex one-offs: 23.6. Other multiples: P/B 4.5, P/S 3.4, EV/EBITDA 12.9.
How solid is the balance sheet of Palomar Holdings Inc (PLMR)?
Balance-sheet figures for Palomar Holdings Inc (as of Nov 7, 2026): return on equity 23.3%, debt of 0.05 per unit of equity. They feed the Quality Score of 75/100, which measures business quality independently of the share price.
How far is PLMR from its 52-week high?
Palomar Holdings Inc trades at $155.71, at its 52-week high of $155.71 and 54% above the low of $101.07 (as of Nov 6, 2026). Distance from the high says nothing about value: that is what the fair value of $70.06 is for.
Which stocks are comparable to Palomar Holdings Inc?
From the same area (Financial Services) we also value Chubb Limited, The Progressive Corporation, The Travelers Companies, Inc, The Allstate Corporation, among others. Each of them has its own fair-value calculation on this site using the same models, so the comparison is like for like.
Is Palomar Holdings Inc stock attractive at the current price?
The data as of Nov 7, 2026: price $155.71, calculated fair value $70.06 (−55%), Quality Score 75/100, from 6 models. Whether that fits your horizon and risk tolerance is your call. We provide the calculation, not investment advice.
How is the fair value of PLMR calculated?
We run Palomar Holdings Inc through 6 models from 4 families: Dividend Discount, Multiples, Asset-Based, Economic Profit. Every model gets the same audited fundamentals; the fair value of $70.06 builds on their evidence-weighted average, with the spread shown as a cautious and an optimistic scenario.
Is it still worth investing in stocks now?
The global stock market currently sits 13.0% above its aggregate fair value. Palomar Holdings Inc itself currently trades above fair value. An expensive market is no reason to stay out and no reason to buy everything at once: keep a broad savings plan running, buy single stocks only with money you can do without, and hold part of your money liquid while the market is high. The full picture including sectors is on is it worth investing now.
What is the share price of Palomar Holdings Inc (PLMR)?
The closing price on Nov 6, 2026 was $155.71. Our model-based fair value is $70.06, about 55% lower (overvalued). We carry closing prices from our data provider, not a live tick.
What should I pay attention to with Palomar Holdings Inc right now?
A high-quality business (quality 75/100), yet the market already pays well above fair value. Quality at a full price, with little margin of safety. The price sits above even our optimistic bull case ($87.58). The favourable scenario is already priced in. For a financial, book-value and earnings-based methods matter more than a cash-flow DCF, which fits banks and insurers poorly.
Key figures of Palomar Holdings Inc
How large is the market capitalisation of Palomar Holdings Inc (PLMR)?
The market capitalisation of Palomar Holdings Inc is $4.2B. The stock-market value of the whole company: share price times number of shares. It is what the market asks for the entire business today.
What is the P/S ratio of Palomar Holdings Inc (PLMR)?
The price-to-sales ratio of Palomar Holdings Inc is 3.42 (last twelve months). Price to sales: market value relative to yearly revenue. Useful when profit is thin or distorted.
What are the earnings per share of Palomar Holdings Inc (PLMR)?
Earnings per share at Palomar Holdings Inc are $7.98 (price ÷ EPS = P/E 19.5). Earnings per share over the last twelve months: total profit spread across every single share.
What is the dividend yield of Palomar Holdings Inc (PLMR)?
The dividend yield of Palomar Holdings Inc is 0.3% (payout 5.6%). Yearly dividend relative to the share price. 3% pays 3 per 100 invested. Below: how much of profit is used for it.
What is the net margin of Palomar Holdings Inc (PLMR)?
The net margin of Palomar Holdings Inc is 17.6% (last twelve months). How much of every unit of revenue ends up as profit. 10% means 10 cents of profit per dollar of sales.
What is the return on equity of Palomar Holdings Inc (PLMR)?
The return on equity (ROE) of Palomar Holdings Inc is 23.3% (last twelve months). Profit relative to shareholders' equity, how efficiently the company works with its owners' money.
What is the EBIT return on assets of Palomar Holdings Inc (PLMR)?
On an EBIT basis the return on assets of Palomar Holdings Inc is 7.1% (avg 5y). Operating profit (EBIT) relative to everything the company owns, as a multi-year average. It describes the business model rather than one good or bad year.
What is the operating margin of Palomar Holdings Inc (PLMR)?
The operating margin of Palomar Holdings Inc is 23.3% (last twelve months). Profit from the core business (before interest and taxes) relative to revenue.
How fast is revenue growing at Palomar Holdings Inc (PLMR)?
Revenue at Palomar Holdings Inc is growing +58.0% versus a year earlier (3y avg +38.9%). How much revenue grew versus a year earlier (YoY). The 3-year average next to it puts the single year in context.
How fast are earnings growing at Palomar Holdings Inc (PLMR)?
Earnings per share at Palomar Holdings Inc are growing +29.4% versus a year earlier. How much earnings per share grew versus a year earlier.
How much net cash does Palomar Holdings Inc (PLMR) hold?
Palomar Holdings Inc holds more cash than debt, $99.8M net (fiscal year 2025). The company holds more cash than debt, a safety cushion.
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Broad data
Nov 7, 2026