Selective Insurance Group, Inc. (SIGI) fair value: what the stock is really worth
As of Nov 6, 2026: fair value (intrinsic value) of Selective Insurance Group, Inc. stock $72.17, price $99.44, that is 27.4% below the price, quality 68 out of 100. Rating: overvalued. Calculated from audited financials with 6 of our 26 valuation models and 37 quality factors, updated daily.
69 individual criteria per stock, every one traceableSee the method →
Price vs Fair Value
White line = price, green steps = our fair value per fiscal year. As of Nov 7, 2026.
How to read this chart
60‑month range $69.20 – $104.34 · fair‑value band $58.48 – $106.60 · the $99.44 price screens above the $72.17 fair value. Green steps = our fair value per fiscal year (point-in-time, no hindsight). As of Nov 7, 2026.
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Selective Insurance Group, Inc., together with its subsidiaries, provides insurance products and services in the United States. The company operates through four segments: Standard Commercial Lines, Standard Personal Lines, E&S Lines, and Investments.
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It offers casualty insurance products that covers the financial consequences of third-party bodily injury and/or property damage from an insured's negligent acts, omissions, and legal liabilities; property insurance products, which covers the accidental loss of an insured's real property, personal property, and/or earnings due to the property's loss; and flood insurance products.
The company also invests in fixed income investments and commercial mortgage loans, as well as equity securities, short-term investments, and alternative investments, and other investments.
It offers its insurance products and services to businesses, non-profit organizations, local government agencies, and individuals through independent retail agents and wholesale general agents. Selective Insurance Group, Inc. was founded in 1926 and is headquartered in Branchville, New Jersey.
Stock analysis
Selective Insurance Group, Inc. (SIGI) currently trades at $99.44, while our model-based Fair Value estimate is $72.17, 27% below the price, so the stock looks overvalued today.
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Valuation
Bull case: the Multiples group reads highest at a median of $87.43 per share, and 1 of the 6 models we run sit above the $99.44 price.
Bear case: the Dividend Discount group reads lowest at $32.30, and 5 of the 6 models stay below the price. Data coverage for this calculation is high.
Scenario range: $58.48 (bear) to $106.60 (bull), the price of $99.44 sits inside it. Bear and bull are the same models on cautious and optimistic assumptions, a range, not a price target.
Quality & growth
The Quality Score stands at 68/100 (solid quality), in the Financial Services sector.
Healthy Growth: Revenue growth appears healthy and is supported by profitability and cash-flow quality.
Selective Insurance Group, Inc. reported revenue of $5.3B in FY2025 versus $3.4B in FY2021, a compound +12.1%/yr. Reported net income was $466M in FY2025, compounding +3.7%/yr from FY2021.
Key figures
Market cap $6.0B Mid · P/E ratio 12.0 · P/S ratio 1.10 · EPS (TTM) $8.32 · Dividend yield 1.7% · Net margin 9.4% · Return on equity 14.7% · Return on assets (EBIT) 3.6% (5-year average).
Competitive moat
Our AI-assisted moat analysis scores the competitive advantage at 51 out of 100 (low confidence).
What moves the price
The share trades about 4% below its 52-week high and 36% above its 52-week low, currently above its 200-day average.
For context, the median of 10 Financial Services peers we cover trades at −22% fair-value upside, at −27%, SIGI screens richer than that median.
Fair Value models
Bear$58.48Fair Value $72.17Bull$106.60
Price $99.44 · Downside -27.4%
Model ⓘEach model values the company its own way (discounted cash flow, earnings, assets, dividends). The fair value above starts from their evidence-weighted blend, not from a single model. In cyclical trough or peak years, after dilution or a stock split it is adjusted afterwards, so it can sit above or below the models. Based on fiscal year 2025 figures (about 10 months old). Earnings retained since then ($5.66 per share) are deliberately not added.Bear ⓘBear = the cautious scenario: the same model computed with conservative anchors (lower growth, margins and valuation multiples). Together with Bull it frames a plausible valuation range, not a price target.BaseBull ⓘBull = the optimistic scenario: the same model computed with favourable anchors (higher growth, margins and valuation multiples). Together with Bear it frames a plausible valuation range, not a price target. If a model's bull case is above four times its base value, the table shows that limit with a > sign (like the overall Bull above): beyond it no assumption holds.Coverage ⓘCoverage = how well-backed THIS model's estimate is for this stock (0–100): how complete and reliable its input data are, and how well the model fits the company. The final Fair Value is an evidence-weighted blend, so better-evidenced models count more. Green ≥70, amber 50–69, grey below 50.
In the last 6 months, 2 officers or directors sold shares worth $2.0M and none bought.
SaleCynthia S NicholsonDirector3,691 shares at $98.71$364,342Oct 26, 2026
SaleMichael H LanzaEVP and General Counsel17,100 shares at $94.04$1.6MJul 28, 2026
SaleAnthony D. HarnettSVP, Chief Accounting Officer2× since Feb 2, 2026: 2,019 shares, avg. $86.37$174,390Feb 17, 2026
BuyLisa R BacusDirector600 shares at $84.81$50,886Feb 2, 2026
Plus one other filing such as a grant, option exercise or tax withholding. It is not a market purchase or sale.
Sales are often planned (taxes, diversification, 10b5-1 plans). Purchases with their own money are seen as the stronger sign. For information only: not part of the quality score or Fair Value.
Growth Quality ⓘGrowth is valuable only when reinvestment earns attractive returns (Aswath Damodaran): sustainable growth depends on return on capital, reinvestment and efficiency. Basis: total company revenue over the periods shown on the cards (3Y/5Y/all years), not per share, so a merger can show up as a growth jump; per-share earnings growth is in the value-creation card.93/100
Revenue growth appears healthy and is supported by profitability and cash-flow quality.
Revenue growth 1 year
+9.8%
Revenue growth 3 years ⓘMeasures the company's TOTAL revenue from reported annual statements: compound average growth per year (CAGR) from the fiscal year 3, 5 or N years back to the most recent comparable fiscal year. Not per share: buybacks do not change this number, and a merger can appear as a growth jump. Per-share growth (which does include buybacks) is in the value-creation card.
+14.5%
Revenue growth 5 years ⓘMeasures the company's TOTAL revenue from reported annual statements: compound average growth per year (CAGR) from the fiscal year 3, 5 or N years back to the most recent comparable fiscal year. Not per share: buybacks do not change this number, and a merger can appear as a growth jump. Per-share growth (which does include buybacks) is in the value-creation card.
+12.8%
Start year 2020 (pandemic). Over 10 years: +9.6% a year
Revenue growth 40 years ⓘMeasures the company's TOTAL revenue from reported annual statements: compound average growth per year (CAGR) from the fiscal year 3, 5 or N years back to the most recent comparable fiscal year. Not per share: buybacks do not change this number, and a merger can appear as a growth jump. Per-share growth (which does include buybacks) is in the value-creation card.
+7.4%
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What shareholders gained per year (last 5 years) ⓘWhat the business itself delivers per year: earnings growth per share plus the dividend yield. This is what you get IF the market keeps valuing the stock the same way: it contains no assumption about the market changing its mind. Computed per share, so buybacks count and a merger does not pass as growth. For a company that pays no dividend it is pure earnings growth per share. Period: earnings growth per share as CAGR over the last 5 reported fiscal years (annual statements), plus the current dividend yield. The start value is the median of the three years around the start, so a single crisis year (a pandemic or a write-down) does not distort the rate. Basis: adjusted.
+4.9%
Earnings growth per share plus dividend.
Earnings per share, growth per year+3.2%
Dividend (yield on the price)1.7%
Pace: 5 vs 10 years ⓘTwo data points, not a trend model: earnings growth per share over the last 5 fiscal years against the last 10. Labelled "steady" when both rates are within 3 percentage points of each other, otherwise picking up or flattening. Shown only when ten years of history exist.11.0% vs 11.0%, steady
Profit margin 2020 to 2025 ⓘOperating margin then vs now, from reported annual statements. A falling margin after a boom year is the classic peak-earnings signal: the growth rate then leans on an inflated base.10% → 11%
Pace: the 5-year rate starts in 2020 (pandemic)
Growth Forecast
Little optimism in the price
The price assumes less growth than the company has delivered so far and less than analysts expect.
What the price assumes ⓘThis turns our valuation around: instead of asking what the share is worth, it asks what growth the current price requires. It uses the cash the company keeps after all spending (free cash flow), the same discount rate as our models, five years of growth, then slowing evenly to 2 % a year by year ten. Compared with the analysts' sales forecasts extended to the same five years (at least three analysts, for context only, it does not enter the Fair Value): within 3 percentage points counts as "in line" (amber), below that little optimism (green), above that a lot of optimism (red).
−15.4%
The company could shrink this much every year for the next five years and today's price would still be justified.
What forecasts expect ⓘAnalysts publish sales forecasts for the next two fiscal years. For the years after that, growth slows evenly to 2 % a year by year ten (2 % is the long-run rate our models use). Projected years are marked as such.
−0.7%
Yearly sales growth analysts expect, extended to five years.
After inflation (USA: IMF forecast 2.4% a year to 2030, 3.1% from 2016 to 2025) that is about −17.3% a year for the price and −3.0% for the forecasts.
News mood ⓘNews mood, the average tone of recent news (99 articles), rated against how stocks are usually covered. 🚀 Hype = unusually upbeat · 🙂 Positive = above average · 😐 Neutral = typical · 🙁 Negative = below average · 😨 Very negative = unusually downbeat. It reflects the tone of coverage, not our valuation.Positive
Recent news coverage is more positive than average.
AI conclusion: The business shows average quality with internal investment leadership offering continuity for the portfolio supporting underwriting yet thin evidence and the cycle-dependent nature of insurance limit any durable edge.
Main risk: In a softening commercial lines market broader rate and credit conditions could dominate investment outcomes and reduce the income that supports underwriting operations.
Bull case: Selective could deepen ties with high-performing agencies through superior service and KI-enhanced underwriting while selectively expanding its footprint to offset any share shifts from larger rivals.
Bear case: If larger carriers and consolidating brokers redirect business, Selective's commercial-lines premium volume and underwriting margins could erode steadily as it loses scale advantages in a casualty-heavy book exposed to ongoing loss trends.
Selective Insurance just made permanent its internal interim chief investment officer. With deep fixed-income experience and more than ten years at the firm, he now leads the portfolio that generates investment income to support the underwriting operations. In a softening commercial lines market, does this internal continuity help the investment book deliver steadier risk-adjusted returns than external hires would, or will broader rate and credit conditions dominate the outcome?
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Peer GroupⓘHow this stock ranks against its industry: the green marker is this stock, the band is the typical 25–75% peer range, and the tick is the median.Insurance - Property & Casualty · 100 stocks
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Cite: Fair Value Calculator (2026). "Selective Insurance Group, Inc. Fair Value". https://www.fairvalue-calculator.com/stock/SIGI
Frequently asked questions
Is Selective Insurance Group, Inc. (SIGI) overvalued or undervalued?
As of Nov 7, 2026, our model estimates a fair value of $72.17 versus a price of $99.44, about 27% lower (overvalued).
What is the fair value of SIGI?
Our model-based fair value for Selective Insurance Group, Inc. is $72.17 (as of Nov 7, 2026), built from audited fundamentals. The current price: $99.44.
What is the quality score of SIGI?
Selective Insurance Group, Inc. has a Quality Score of 68/100. It measures business quality (profitability, growth, cash flow, balance-sheet strength, investment discipline, share issuance). Market factors such as price momentum and volatility do not enter the number; they are shown separately in the detail view.
What is the price target for Selective Insurance Group, Inc. (SIGI)?
Our model-based price target is the fair value of $72.17 (as of Nov 7, 2026) from 6 valuation models. Cautious scenario $58.48, optimistic scenario $106.60. It is a calculation from audited fundamentals, not an analyst target.
What is the Selective Insurance Group, Inc. stock forecast for 2026?
Our models put fair value at $72.17, about 27% lower versus a price of $99.44 (overvalued). Cautious scenario $58.48, optimistic scenario $106.60. The calculation is refreshed regularly with new filings.
What is the revenue of Selective Insurance Group, Inc. (SIGI)?
Selective Insurance Group, Inc. reported trailing-twelve-month revenue of about $5.4B (latest available figure, as of Nov 7, 2026).
Does Selective Insurance Group, Inc. pay a dividend?
Selective Insurance Group, Inc. currently shows a dividend yield of 1.73% relative to its recent price (as of Nov 7, 2026).
How much is the dividend of Selective Insurance Group, Inc. (SIGI) and when is the ex-dividend date?
Selective Insurance Group, Inc. pays a dividend of $1.72 per share a year, a dividend yield of 1.7%. The next ex-dividend date is Nov 16, 2026, with payment on Dec 1, 2026. A dividend has been paid every year since at least 1983. The payout ratio is 20.7% of earnings. Free cash flow covers the dividend 11.66 times. Our assessment: Well covered. A low payout and the dividend is fully funded by free cash flow, a comfortable, sustainable dividend.
What growth is priced into Selective Insurance Group, Inc. (SIGI)?
For today's price to be fair in a discounted-cash-flow model, Selective Insurance Group, Inc. would have to grow free cash flow by -15.4 % per year for five years (discount rate 8.5 %, then slowing evenly to 2 % perpetual growth by year ten). Over the last 5 years revenue grew +12.8 % per year. As of Nov 7, 2026.
What discount rate (WACC) does the fair value of SIGI use?
Our models discount Selective Insurance Group, Inc. at 8.5 %: a base by market capitalisation (mid), damped by beta 0.25, country premium for USA. The same rate applies in all 26 models.
What is a reverse DCF?
A reverse DCF turns the usual calculation around. Instead of deriving a value from assumptions, it takes today's price as given and asks: what free-cash-flow growth would a company have to deliver for exactly this price to be fair? The result is not a forecast but the expectation already priced in. For Selective Insurance Group, Inc. that is -15.4 % per year for five years, then slowing evenly to 2 % by year ten, using the same discount rate (8.5 %) and the same formula as our fair value.
How much growth has Selective Insurance Group, Inc. (SIGI) delivered so far?
Over the past 5 years revenue at Selective Insurance Group, Inc. grew +12.8 % a year. The price currently implies free-cash-flow growth of -15.4 % per year. Comparing the two shows how much confidence is in the price: if it demands more than has been delivered, the business has to accelerate for the maths to work.
How fast is the sector of Selective Insurance Group, Inc. (SIGI) growing?
The median revenue growth in the sector is +9.2 % a year. That is the yardstick for the growth priced into Selective Insurance Group, Inc. (-15.4 % per year): it shows whether the expectation is within the usual range or beyond it.
What is the free cash flow yield of Selective Insurance Group, Inc. (SIGI)?
The free-cash-flow yield on the price is 19.95 %: that much free cash flow Selective Insurance Group, Inc. produces per unit of market value. When it exceeds the discount rate of our models (8.5 %), the business already earns more than its cost of capital demands, and the price needs little additional growth.
What is the intrinsic value of Selective Insurance Group, Inc. (SIGI)?
Intrinsic value and fair value mean the same thing: what the business is worth on its numbers, independent of the share price. For Selective Insurance Group, Inc. it is $72.17 per share (as of Nov 7, 2026), against a price of $99.44. It is the blended result of 6 valuation models in 4 families (Dividend Discount, Multiples, Asset-Based, Economic Profit).
Is Selective Insurance Group, Inc. stock overvalued or undervalued in 2026?
As of Nov 7, 2026, SIGI trades above its calculated fair value: price $99.44, fair value $72.17, a gap of about −27% (overvalued). The calculation is refreshed with each new quarterly report, so the verdict can change during the year.
Is fair value the same as the market price of SIGI?
No. The price is what the market pays today ($99.44); the fair value is what the company's own numbers justify ($72.17). For Selective Insurance Group, Inc. the two are $27.27 per share apart. That gap is exactly why we show both numbers side by side.
How much is Selective Insurance Group, Inc. worth?
The market values Selective Insurance Group, Inc. at about $6.0B (market capitalisation, as of Nov 7, 2026). Per share that is $99.44; our models calculate a fair value of $72.17 per share.
What do the bullish and bearish scenarios say about SIGI?
Our models span a range for Selective Insurance Group, Inc.: cautious scenario $58.48, base $72.17, optimistic $106.60 per share (as of Nov 7, 2026, price $99.44). The range comes from different growth and margin assumptions, not from analyst opinions.
What is the P/E ratio of SIGI?
Selective Insurance Group, Inc. trades at a price-to-earnings ratio of 12.0 (as of Nov 7, 2026). A P/E on its own says little: it compares the price with ONE year of profit, while our fair value of $72.17 is built from several models across several years. Median P/E at fiscal year-end, 10 fiscal years (2016 to 2025), reported earnings, 9 of the years ex one-offs: 12.2. Other multiples: PEG 0.3, P/B 1.7, P/S 1.1, EV/EBITDA 9.4.
What is the PEG ratio of SIGI?
The PEG ratio of Selective Insurance Group, Inc. is 0.28 (P/E divided by earnings growth, as of Nov 7, 2026). That is below 1, so growth is priced more cheaply than the earnings multiple alone suggests.
How solid is the balance sheet of Selective Insurance Group, Inc. (SIGI)?
Balance-sheet figures for Selective Insurance Group, Inc. (as of Nov 7, 2026): return on equity 14.7%, debt of 0.25 per unit of equity. They feed the Quality Score of 68/100, which measures business quality independently of the share price.
How far is SIGI from its 52-week high?
Selective Insurance Group, Inc. trades at $99.44, about 4% below its 52-week high of $103.20 and 36% above the low of $73.02 (as of Nov 6, 2026). Distance from the high says nothing about value: that is what the fair value of $72.17 is for.
Which stocks are comparable to Selective Insurance Group, Inc.?
From the same area (Financial Services) we also value Chubb Limited, The Progressive Corporation, The Travelers Companies, Inc, The Allstate Corporation, among others. Each of them has its own fair-value calculation on this site using the same models, so the comparison is like for like.
Is Selective Insurance Group, Inc. stock attractive at the current price?
The data as of Nov 7, 2026: price $99.44, calculated fair value $72.17 (−27%), Quality Score 68/100, from 6 models. Whether that fits your horizon and risk tolerance is your call. We provide the calculation, not investment advice.
How is the fair value of SIGI calculated?
We run Selective Insurance Group, Inc. through 6 models from 4 families: Dividend Discount, Multiples, Asset-Based, Economic Profit. Every model gets the same audited fundamentals; the fair value of $72.17 builds on their evidence-weighted average, with the spread shown as a cautious and an optimistic scenario.
Is it still worth investing in stocks now?
The global stock market currently sits 13.3% above its aggregate fair value. Selective Insurance Group, Inc. itself currently trades above fair value. An expensive market is no reason to stay out and no reason to buy everything at once: keep a broad savings plan running, buy single stocks only with money you can do without, and hold part of your money liquid while the market is high. The full picture including sectors is on is it worth investing now.
What is the share price of Selective Insurance Group, Inc. (SIGI)?
The closing price on Nov 6, 2026 was $99.44. Our model-based fair value is $72.17, about 27% lower (overvalued). We carry closing prices from our data provider, not a live tick.
What should I pay attention to with Selective Insurance Group, Inc. right now?
Solid but not exceptional quality (68/100) and above fair value, neither a clear bargain nor a standout compounder. A fairly wide model range ($58.48 to $106.60) leaves room in how you read the outcome. For a financial, book-value and earnings-based methods matter more than a cash-flow DCF, which fits banks and insurers poorly.
Where does the earnings growth of Selective Insurance Group, Inc. (SIGI) come from?
Earnings per share at Selective Insurance Group, Inc. grew +8.7 % a year from 2014 to 2025. Broken into its drivers: revenue per share +8.7 %, EBIT margin −1.2 %, tax rate +1.2 %, residual (interest, one-offs) +0.0 %. The four rates multiply to the earnings growth rate, they do not add up. Start and end are three-year averages so a single exceptional year does not distort the result.
Key figures of Selective Insurance Group, Inc.
How large is the market capitalisation of Selective Insurance Group, Inc. (SIGI)?
The market capitalisation of Selective Insurance Group, Inc. is $6.0B. The stock-market value of the whole company: share price times number of shares. It is what the market asks for the entire business today.
What is the P/S ratio of Selective Insurance Group, Inc. (SIGI)?
The price-to-sales ratio of Selective Insurance Group, Inc. is 1.10 (last twelve months). Price to sales: market value relative to yearly revenue. Useful when profit is thin or distorted.
What are the earnings per share of Selective Insurance Group, Inc. (SIGI)?
Earnings per share at Selective Insurance Group, Inc. are $8.32 (price ÷ EPS = P/E 12.0). Earnings per share over the last twelve months: total profit spread across every single share.
What is the dividend yield of Selective Insurance Group, Inc. (SIGI)?
The dividend yield of Selective Insurance Group, Inc. is 1.7% (payout 20.7%). Yearly dividend relative to the share price. 3% pays 3 per 100 invested. Below: how much of profit is used for it.
What is the net margin of Selective Insurance Group, Inc. (SIGI)?
The net margin of Selective Insurance Group, Inc. is 9.4% (last twelve months). How much of every unit of revenue ends up as profit. 10% means 10 cents of profit per dollar of sales.
What is the return on equity of Selective Insurance Group, Inc. (SIGI)?
The return on equity (ROE) of Selective Insurance Group, Inc. is 14.7% (last twelve months). Profit relative to shareholders' equity, how efficiently the company works with its owners' money.
What is the EBIT return on assets of Selective Insurance Group, Inc. (SIGI)?
On an EBIT basis the return on assets of Selective Insurance Group, Inc. is 3.6% (avg 5y). Operating profit (EBIT) relative to everything the company owns, as a multi-year average. It describes the business model rather than one good or bad year.
What is the operating margin of Selective Insurance Group, Inc. (SIGI)?
The operating margin of Selective Insurance Group, Inc. is 13.2% (last twelve months). Profit from the core business (before interest and taxes) relative to revenue.
How fast is revenue growing at Selective Insurance Group, Inc. (SIGI)?
Revenue at Selective Insurance Group, Inc. is growing −2.5% versus a year earlier (3y avg +14.5%). How much revenue grew versus a year earlier (YoY). The 3-year average next to it puts the single year in context.
How fast are earnings growing at Selective Insurance Group, Inc. (SIGI)?
Earnings per share at Selective Insurance Group, Inc. are growing +14.1% versus a year earlier. How much earnings per share grew versus a year earlier.
How much net debt does Selective Insurance Group, Inc. (SIGI) carry?
The net debt of Selective Insurance Group, Inc. is $989M (fiscal year 2025, ≈ 0.8 yrs of FCF). Debt minus cash on hand. The note shows how many years of free cash flow could in theory pay it off.
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Broad data
Nov 7, 2026