Saipem SpA (SPM) fair value: what the stock is really worth
As of Nov 5, 2026: fair value (intrinsic value) of Saipem SpA stock €2.72, price €4.26, that is 36.1% below the price, quality 60 out of 100. Rating: strongly overvalued. Calculated from audited financials with 26 valuation models and 37 quality factors, updated daily.
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Price vs Fair Value
White line = price, green steps = our fair value per fiscal year. As of Nov 5, 2026.
How to read this chart
60‑month range €0.5209 – €5.06 · fair‑value band €2.04 – €3.40 · the €4.26 price screens above the €2.72 fair value. Green steps = our fair value per fiscal year (point-in-time, no hindsight). 1 fiscal year is left out: there the valuation rested on only a fraction of the usual models. As of Nov 5, 2026.
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Saipem SpA provides energy and infrastructure solutions worldwide. It operates through Asset Based Services, Offshore Drilling, and Energy Carriers segments.
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The company offers development of subsea fields and pipelaying; installation and lifting of offshore structures; engages in engineering, implementation, installation, maintenance, modification, and decommissioning activities, as well as offshore engineering and construction, and wind activities.
It is also involved in onshore engineering and construction, sustainable infrastructures, and robotics and industrialized solutions; and design and construction of infrastructure projects, such as railway lines in high speed/high capacity lines.
In addition, the company provides procurement, project management, and construction services to oil and gas, civil and marine infrastructure, and environmental markets. The company was founded in 1957 and is headquartered in Milan, Italy.
Stock analysis
Saipem SpA (SPM) currently trades at €4.26, while our model-based Fair Value estimate is €2.72, 36% below the price, so the stock looks overvalued today.
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Valuation
Bull case: the Growth DCF group reads highest at a median of €5.21 per share, and 10 of the 26 models we run sit above the €4.26 price.
Bear case: the Asset-Based group reads lowest at €0.6800, and 16 of the 26 models stay below the price. Data coverage for this calculation is high.
Scenario range: €2.04 (bear) to €3.40 (bull), the price of €4.26 sits above it. Bear and bull are the same models on cautious and optimistic assumptions, a range, not a price target.
Quality & growth
The Quality Score stands at 60/100 (solid quality), in the Energy sector.
Mixed Growth: Revenue is growing, but margins or cash flow do not fully confirm the trend.
Saipem SpA reported revenue of €15.5B in FY2025 versus €6.9B in FY2021, a compound +22.5%/yr. Reported net income was €310M in FY2025.
Key figures
Market cap €8.3B Mid · P/E ratio 33.2 · P/S ratio 0.59 · EPS (TTM) €0.1300 · Dividend yield 4.0% · Net margin 1.7% · Return on equity 10.9% · Return on assets (EBIT) −1.3%.
Competitive moat
Our AI-assisted moat analysis scores the competitive advantage at 33 out of 100 (medium confidence).
What moves the price
The share trades about 12% below its 52-week high and 101% above its 52-week low, currently above its 200-day average.
For context, the median of 10 Energy peers we cover trades at −24% fair-value upside, at −36%, SPM screens richer than that median.
Fair Value models
Bear€2.04Fair Value €2.72Bull€3.40
Price €4.26 · Downside -36.1%
Model ⓘEach model values the company its own way (discounted cash flow, earnings, assets, dividends). The fair value above starts from their evidence-weighted blend, not from a single model. In cyclical trough or peak years, after dilution or a stock split it is adjusted afterwards, so it can sit above or below the models.Bear ⓘBear = the cautious scenario: the same model computed with conservative anchors (lower growth, margins and valuation multiples). Together with Bull it frames a plausible valuation range, not a price target.BaseBull ⓘBull = the optimistic scenario: the same model computed with favourable anchors (higher growth, margins and valuation multiples). Together with Bear it frames a plausible valuation range, not a price target. If a model's bull case is above four times its base value, the table shows that limit with a > sign (like the overall Bull above): beyond it no assumption holds.Coverage ⓘCoverage = how well-backed THIS model's estimate is for this stock (0–100): how complete and reliable its input data are, and how well the model fits the company. The final Fair Value is an evidence-weighted blend, so better-evidenced models count more. Green ≥70, amber 50–69, grey below 50.
Growth Quality ⓘGrowth is valuable only when reinvestment earns attractive returns (Aswath Damodaran): sustainable growth depends on return on capital, reinvestment and efficiency. Basis: total company revenue over the periods shown on the cards (3Y/5Y/all years), not per share, so a merger can show up as a growth jump; per-share earnings growth is in the value-creation card.85/100
Revenue is growing, but margins or cash flow do not fully confirm the trend.
Revenue growth 1 year
+6.6%
Revenue growth 3 years ⓘMeasures the company's TOTAL revenue from reported annual statements: compound average growth per year (CAGR) from the fiscal year 3, 5 or N years back to the most recent comparable fiscal year. Not per share: buybacks do not change this number, and a merger can appear as a growth jump. Per-share growth (which does include buybacks) is in the value-creation card.
+15.8%
Revenue growth 5 years ⓘMeasures the company's TOTAL revenue from reported annual statements: compound average growth per year (CAGR) from the fiscal year 3, 5 or N years back to the most recent comparable fiscal year. Not per share: buybacks do not change this number, and a merger can appear as a growth jump. Per-share growth (which does include buybacks) is in the value-creation card.
+16.1%
Start year 2020 (pandemic). Over 10 years: +2.9% a year
Revenue growth 23 years ⓘMeasures the company's TOTAL revenue from reported annual statements: compound average growth per year (CAGR) from the fiscal year 3, 5 or N years back to the most recent comparable fiscal year. Not per share: buybacks do not change this number, and a merger can appear as a growth jump. Per-share growth (which does include buybacks) is in the value-creation card.
+7.1%
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What shareholders gained per year (last 5 years) ⓘWhat the business itself delivers per year: earnings growth per share plus the dividend yield. This is what you get IF the market keeps valuing the stock the same way: it contains no assumption about the market changing its mind. Computed per share, so buybacks count and a merger does not pass as growth. For a company that pays no dividend it is pure earnings growth per share. Period: earnings growth per share as CAGR over the last 5 reported fiscal years (annual statements), plus the current dividend yield. The start value is the median of the three years around the start, so a single crisis year (a pandemic or a write-down) does not distort the rate.
−4.0%
Earnings growth per share plus dividend.
Earnings per share, growth per year−8.0%
Dividend (yield on the price)4.0%
Profit margin 2020 to 2025 ⓘOperating margin then vs now, from reported annual statements. A falling margin after a boom year is the classic peak-earnings signal: the growth rate then leans on an inflated base.−3% → 4%
⚠ Revenue per share shrinking 21.9%/yr over ~10Y (margins intact) ⓘStructural-decline marker: revenue PER SHARE has fallen over the last decade (robust median trend, not a single year). Backtested across 2005 to 2017, such businesses trailed the market by about 2.5 percentage points per year. Display only: it does not change the fair value or the quality score.
Growth Forecast
Little optimism in the price
The price assumes less growth than the company has delivered so far and less than analysts expect.
What the price assumes ⓘThis turns our valuation around: instead of asking what the share is worth, it asks what growth the current price requires. It uses the cash the company keeps after all spending (free cash flow), the same discount rate as our models, five years of growth, then slowing evenly to 2 % a year by year ten. Compared with the analysts' sales forecasts extended to the same five years (at least three analysts, for context only, it does not enter the Fair Value): within 3 percentage points counts as "in line" (amber), below that little optimism (green), above that a lot of optimism (red).
−3.8%
The company could shrink this much every year for the next five years and today's price would still be justified.
What forecasts expect ⓘAnalysts publish sales forecasts for the next two fiscal years. For the years after that, growth slows evenly to 2 % a year by year ten (2 % is the long-run rate our models use). Projected years are marked as such.
+2.1%
Yearly sales growth analysts expect, extended to five years.
After inflation (euro area: IMF forecast 2.2% a year to 2030, 2.6% from 2016 to 2025) that is about −5.9% a year for the price and −0.1% for the forecasts.
News mood ⓘNews mood, the average tone of recent news (98 articles), rated against how stocks are usually covered. 🚀 Hype = unusually upbeat · 🙂 Positive = above average · 😐 Neutral = typical · 🙁 Negative = below average · 😨 Very negative = unusually downbeat. It reflects the tone of coverage, not our valuation.Hype
Recent news coverage is unusually upbeat, far more positive than stocks are typically covered.
AI conclusion: Focus on deepwater, harsh-environment work and carbon capture forms the main strength, while persistently low net margins in a competitive cyclical sector remain the key weakness.
Main risk: A reduction in contract awards or delays from key clients such as Saudi Aramco and QatarEnergy could sharply cut revenue and margins in its EPC and offshore drilling activities.
Bull case: By expanding its deepwater and carbon-capture project portfolio while leveraging its engineering expertise in new energy infrastructure, Saipem could broaden its client base and sustain activity levels even if traditional Middle East spending slows.
Bear case: If major clients curtail offshore spending or shift more work to local partners under national content rules, combined with unfavourable arbitration outcomes, Saipem could face prolonged revenue shortfalls and execution constraints in its core segments.
Saipem completed the sale of its Saudi shallow-water drilling operations to focus resources on deepwater and harsh-environment work. This shift supports its role in complex offshore projects and energy transition initiatives such as carbon capture. Our models currently see it as overvalued. Will the move toward higher-value segments deliver stronger returns despite execution hurdles, or will project risks and sector volatility prove more decisive?
Price, fair value, quality and upside side by side.
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Peer GroupⓘHow this stock ranks against its industry: the green marker is this stock, the band is the typical 25–75% peer range, and the tick is the median.Oil & Gas Equipment & Services · 166 stocks
Beats the industry median on 6/15 measures
A mixed picture versus its industry peers.
Valuation
Quality Score60 · Above median
Fair Value upside−36.1% · Bottom 25%
Profitability
Return on equity (12 months)10.9% · Above median
Return on assets2.2% · Below median
Net margin (12 months)1.7% · Below median
Operating margin (12 months)2.2% · Below median
Growth and dividend
Revenue growth (quarter YoY)3.5% · Below median
Dividend yield (12 months)4.0% · Top 25%
Balance sheet
Debt / equity0.55× · Highest 25%
Valuation Multiplesvs Oil & Gas Equipment & Services median · lower = cheaper
P/E (12 months)33.2× · Priciest 25%
P/B3.52× · Priciest 25%
P/S (12 months)0.59× · Cheapest 25%
Price / free cash flow8.1× · Cheaper than median
EV/EBITDA9.5× · Pricier than median
PEG0.37× · Cheapest 25%
Strength profile in five axes (Snowflake)
This stockSector peers
VALUE (fair-value potential)0· sector 22
FUTURE (revenue growth)18· sector 34
PAST (return on equity)43· sector 26
HEALTH (low debt)73· sector 92
DIVIDEND (yield)80· sector 44
VALUE 0: the price sits above our fair-value range.
For bloggers, editors and developers: paste this into your site or blog (a “Custom HTML” block in WordPress), it shows the current fair value and links back here. Free, plain HTML, and welcome. Full data streams (CSV/JSON) at /developers.
Cite: Fair Value Calculator (2026). "Saipem SpA Fair Value". https://www.fairvalue-calculator.com/stock/SPM
Frequently asked questions
Is Saipem SpA (SPM) overvalued or undervalued?
As of Nov 5, 2026, our model estimates a fair value of €2.72 versus a price of €4.26, about 36% lower (overvalued).
What is the fair value of SPM?
Our model-based fair value for Saipem SpA is €2.72 (as of Nov 5, 2026), built from audited fundamentals. The current price: €4.26.
What is the quality score of SPM?
Saipem SpA has a Quality Score of 60/100. It measures business quality (profitability, growth, cash flow, balance-sheet strength, investment discipline, share issuance). Market factors such as price momentum and volatility do not enter the number; they are shown separately in the detail view.
What is the price target for Saipem SpA (SPM)?
Our model-based price target is the fair value of €2.72 (as of Nov 5, 2026) from 26 valuation models. Cautious scenario €2.04, optimistic scenario €3.40. It is a calculation from audited fundamentals, not an analyst target.
What is the Saipem SpA stock forecast for 2026?
Our models put fair value at €2.72, about 36% lower versus a price of €4.26 (overvalued). Cautious scenario €2.04, optimistic scenario €3.40. The calculation is refreshed regularly with new filings.
What is the revenue of Saipem SpA (SPM)?
Saipem SpA reported trailing-twelve-month revenue of about €15.6B (latest available figure, as of Nov 5, 2026).
Does Saipem SpA pay a dividend?
Saipem SpA currently shows a dividend yield of 3.99% relative to its recent price (as of Nov 5, 2026).
What growth is priced into Saipem SpA (SPM)?
For today's price to be fair in a discounted-cash-flow model, Saipem SpA would have to grow free cash flow by -3.8 % per year for five years (discount rate 13.7 %, then slowing evenly to 2 % perpetual growth by year ten). Over the last 5 years revenue grew +16.1 % per year. As of Nov 5, 2026.
What discount rate (WACC) does the fair value of SPM use?
Our models discount Saipem SpA at 13.7 %: a base by market capitalisation (mid), damped by beta 1.59, country premium for Italy. The same rate applies in all 26 models.
What is a reverse DCF?
A reverse DCF turns the usual calculation around. Instead of deriving a value from assumptions, it takes today's price as given and asks: what free-cash-flow growth would a company have to deliver for exactly this price to be fair? The result is not a forecast but the expectation already priced in. For Saipem SpA that is -3.8 % per year a year over ten years, using the same discount rate (13.7 %) and the same formula as our fair value.
How much growth has Saipem SpA (SPM) delivered so far?
Over the past 5 years revenue at Saipem SpA grew +16.1 % a year. The price currently implies -3.8 % per year free-cash-flow growth a year. Comparing the two shows how much confidence is in the price: if it demands more than has been delivered, the business has to accelerate for the maths to work.
How fast is the sector of Saipem SpA (SPM) growing?
The median revenue growth in the sector is +14.2 % a year. That is the yardstick for the growth priced into Saipem SpA (-3.8 % per year a year): it shows whether the expectation is within the usual range or beyond it.
What is the free cash flow yield of Saipem SpA (SPM)?
The free-cash-flow yield on the price is 13.80 %: that much free cash flow Saipem SpA produces per unit of market value. When it exceeds the discount rate of our models (13.7 %), the business already earns more than its cost of capital demands, and the price needs little additional growth.
What is the intrinsic value of Saipem SpA (SPM)?
Intrinsic value and fair value mean the same thing: what the business is worth on its numbers, independent of the share price. For Saipem SpA it is €2.72 per share (as of Nov 5, 2026), against a price of €4.26. It is the blended result of 26 valuation models (cash flow, earnings, asset, dividend).
Is Saipem SpA stock overvalued or undervalued in 2026?
As of Nov 5, 2026, SPM trades above its calculated fair value: price €4.26, fair value €2.72, a gap of about −36% (overvalued). The calculation is refreshed with each new quarterly report, so the verdict can change during the year.
Is fair value the same as the market price of SPM?
No. The price is what the market pays today (€4.26); the fair value is what the company's own numbers justify (€2.72). For Saipem SpA the two are €1.54 per share apart. That gap is exactly why we show both numbers side by side.
How much is Saipem SpA worth?
The market values Saipem SpA at about €8.3B (market capitalisation, as of Nov 5, 2026). Per share that is €4.26; our models calculate a fair value of €2.72 per share.
What do the bullish and bearish scenarios say about SPM?
Our models span a range for Saipem SpA: cautious scenario €2.04, base €2.72, optimistic €3.40 per share (as of Nov 5, 2026, price €4.26). The range comes from different growth and margin assumptions, not from analyst opinions.
What is the P/E ratio of SPM?
Saipem SpA trades at a price-to-earnings ratio of 33.2 (as of Nov 5, 2026). A P/E on its own says little: it compares the price with ONE year of profit, while our fair value of €2.72 is built from several models across several years. Other multiples: PEG 0.4, P/B 3.5, P/S 0.6, EV/EBITDA 9.5.
What is the PEG ratio of SPM?
The PEG ratio of Saipem SpA is 0.37 (P/E divided by earnings growth, as of Nov 5, 2026). That is below 1, so growth is priced more cheaply than the earnings multiple alone suggests.
How solid is the balance sheet of Saipem SpA (SPM)?
Balance-sheet figures for Saipem SpA (as of Nov 5, 2026): return on equity 10.9%, debt of 0.55 per unit of equity. They feed the Quality Score of 60/100, which measures business quality independently of the share price.
How far is SPM from its 52-week high?
Saipem SpA trades at €4.26, about 12% below its 52-week high of €4.82 and 101% above the low of €2.12 (as of Nov 5, 2026). Distance from the high says nothing about value: that is what the fair value of €2.72 is for.
Which stocks are comparable to Saipem SpA?
From the same area (Energy) we also value SLB N.V, Baker Hughes Company, Tenaris S.A, Halliburton Company, among others. Each of them has its own fair-value calculation on this site using the same models, so the comparison is like for like.
Is Saipem SpA stock attractive at the current price?
The data as of Nov 5, 2026: price €4.26, calculated fair value €2.72 (−36%), Quality Score 60/100, from 26 models. Whether that fits your horizon and risk tolerance is your call. We provide the calculation, not investment advice.
How is the fair value of SPM calculated?
We run Saipem SpA through 26 models from four families: discounted cash flow, earnings models, asset and balance-sheet models, and dividend models. Every model gets the same audited fundamentals; the result is the weighted average of €2.72, with the spread shown as a cautious and an optimistic scenario.
Is it still worth investing in stocks now?
The global stock market currently sits 15.5% above its aggregate fair value. Saipem SpA itself currently trades above fair value. An expensive market is no reason to stay out and no reason to buy everything at once: keep a broad savings plan running, buy single stocks only with money you can do without, and hold part of your money liquid while the market is high. The full picture including sectors is on is it worth investing now.
What is the share price of Saipem SpA (SPM)?
The closing price on Nov 5, 2026 was €4.26. Our model-based fair value is €2.72, about 36% lower (overvalued). We carry closing prices from our data provider, not a live tick.
What should I pay attention to with Saipem SpA right now?
The price sits above even our optimistic bull case (€3.40). The favourable scenario is already priced in. Solid but not exceptional quality (60/100) and above fair value, neither a clear bargain nor a standout compounder.
Key figures of Saipem SpA
How large is the market capitalisation of Saipem SpA (SPM)?
The market capitalisation of Saipem SpA is €8.3B. The stock-market value of the whole company: share price times number of shares. It is what the market asks for the entire business today.
What is the P/S ratio of Saipem SpA (SPM)?
The price-to-sales ratio of Saipem SpA is 0.59 (last twelve months). Price to sales: market value relative to yearly revenue. Useful when profit is thin or distorted.
What are the earnings per share of Saipem SpA (SPM)?
Earnings per share at Saipem SpA are €0.1300 (price ÷ EPS = P/E 33.2). Earnings per share over the last twelve months: total profit spread across every single share.
What is the dividend yield of Saipem SpA (SPM)?
The dividend yield of Saipem SpA is 4.0% (payout 131%). Yearly dividend relative to the share price. 3% pays 3 per 100 invested. Below: how much of profit is used for it.
What is the net margin of Saipem SpA (SPM)?
The net margin of Saipem SpA is 1.7% (last twelve months). How much of every unit of revenue ends up as profit. 10% means 10 cents of profit per dollar of sales.
What is the return on equity of Saipem SpA (SPM)?
The return on equity (ROE) of Saipem SpA is 10.9% (last twelve months). Profit relative to shareholders' equity, how efficiently the company works with its owners' money.
What is the EBIT return on assets of Saipem SpA (SPM)?
On an EBIT basis the return on assets of Saipem SpA is −1.3% (avg 5y). Operating profit (EBIT) relative to everything the company owns, as a multi-year average. It describes the business model rather than one good or bad year.
What is the operating margin of Saipem SpA (SPM)?
The operating margin of Saipem SpA is 2.2% (last twelve months). Profit from the core business (before interest and taxes) relative to revenue.
How fast is revenue growing at Saipem SpA (SPM)?
Revenue at Saipem SpA is growing +3.5% versus a year earlier (3y avg +15.8%). How much revenue grew versus a year earlier (YoY). The 3-year average next to it puts the single year in context.
How fast are earnings growing at Saipem SpA (SPM)?
Earnings per share at Saipem SpA are growing −71.2% versus a year earlier. How much earnings per share grew versus a year earlier.
How much net debt does Saipem SpA (SPM) carry?
The net debt of Saipem SpA is €888M (fiscal year 2025, ≈ 0.8 yrs of FCF). Debt minus cash on hand. The note shows how many years of free cash flow could in theory pay it off.
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Broad data
Nov 5, 2026