NOV Inc (NOV) Fair Value & Analysis
Energy · US · Market cap $6.8B
NOV Inc
NOV · US
Fair value as of: Jul 12, 2026
From 25 valuation models · updated 26 days ago
Fair value updated Jul 12, 2026, revised from $13.17 to $6.99 (−46.9%) since Jun 24, 2026. Share price +8.9% over the past month.
A solid business, but screening 65% overvalued on our models.
What matters now
- The price sits above even our optimistic bull case ($9.09). The favourable scenario is already priced in.
- Solid but not exceptional quality (60/100) and above fair value, neither a clear bargain nor a standout compounder.
Price vs Fair Value (5 years)
White line = price, green steps = our fair value per fiscal year, dashed = 300-day average. As of Jul 12, 2026.
How to read this chart
60‑month range $10.60 – $22.89 · fair‑value band $5.15 – $9.09 · the $19.90 price screens above the $6.99 fair value. Green steps = our fair value per fiscal year (point-in-time, no hindsight). Dashed = 300-day average. As of Jul 12, 2026.
Analysis
NOV Inc (NOV) currently trades at $19.90, while our model-based Fair Value estimate is $6.99, implying the stock looks roughly 64.9% overvalued today. We read business quality at 60/100 (solid quality), in the Energy sector. Bear case: priced above our estimate, the market already discounts strong expectations. Bull case: above-average quality can justify a premium, the entry price still matters most (evidence: high).
Over the trailing twelve months, NOV Inc generated revenue of $8.7B at a net margin of 1.1%. Revenue declined 2.4% year over year. It earns a return on equity of 1.5%. Net debt stands at $788M. Fundamentals as of Jul 12, 2026
Our scenario range runs from $5.15 (bear case) to $9.09 (bull case); at $19.90, the current price sits above that range. Bear and bull are the same models run on conservative and optimistic assumptions (margins, growth, valuation multiples), so a plausible valuation range, not a price target. The share trades about 8% below its 52-week high and 72% above its 52-week low, currently above its 200-day average. For context, the median of 10 Energy peers we cover trades at -36% fair-value upside, at -65%, NOV screens richer than that median.
Fair Value models
Each model estimates fair value its own way; the Fair Value above is the evidence-weighted blend. Evidence (0–100) measures how completely this model’s inputs are available: well-fed models carry more weight in the blend. The spread across models is intentional, each one stresses a different value driver; dividend models, for instance, come out structurally low when payout is small.
All 25 models by family
Widest divergence: Growth DCF ($25.29) versus Growth Earnings ($6.73). Highest evidence: Growth DCF (80).
Key figures & financial health
More key figures
Figures from reported company fundamentals · as of Jul 12, 2026. TTM = trailing twelve months.
Quality Score breakdown
Of which business quality 57 · Market factors (momentum, volatility) 71
Non-valuation factor families (profitability, growth, cashflow, financial strength, momentum …), each academically grounded. Valuation itself sits in the Fair Value and is deliberately excluded here to avoid double-counting.
About the company
NOV Inc. designs, constructs, manufactures, and sells systems, components, and products for oil and gas drilling and production, and industrial and renewable energy sectors in the United States and internationally. It operates in two segments, Energy Equipment, and Energy Products and Services.
Full company description
NOV Inc. designs, constructs, manufactures, and sells systems, components, and products for oil and gas drilling and production, and industrial and renewable energy sectors in the United States and internationally. It operates in two segments, Energy Equipment, and Energy Products and Services. The Energy Products and Services segment offers drill bits and borehole enlargement products; independent drilling and intervention downhole tools equipment; frac plugs, frac sleeves, toe initiation burst port systems, and recyclable setting tools; electric submersible pumps, high viscosity pumps, and surface pumps; tubular coating and inspection services for drill-pipe and other oil country tubular goods; solids control and waste management equipment and services; data and digital solutions; precision-engineered drill pipe and drill-stem equipment; connectors and integral thread solutions, including conductor strings, surface casing, and liners; and composite pipe, tanks, and structures. Its Energy Equipment segment provides drilling equipment, such as land rigs, complete offshore drilling packages, and rig components; capital equipment, related consumables, and digital products for hydraulic stimulation, coiled tubing, and wireline services; marine and construction solutions; processing solutions for the separation and treatment of oil, gas, solids, seawater, and produced water production; flexible subsea pipe systems; cavity pumps, specialized mixers and heat exchangers; and reciprocating, multistage, and progressive cavity pumps, midstream products, including closures, transfer pumps, chokes and valves, as well as artificial lift support systems that include production BOPs and stuffing boxes. The company was formerly known as National Oilwell Varco, Inc. and changed its name to NOV Inc. in January 2021. NOV Inc. was founded in 1862 and is based in Houston, Texas.
Company description, as reported by the company or data provider.
Revenue & earnings trend
FY2021 – FY2025 · reported fiscal years
NOV Inc reported revenue of $8.7B in FY2025 versus $5.5B in FY2021, a compound +12.2%/yr. Reported net income was $145M in FY2025.
NOV screens 65% overvalued. Compare with SLB N.V →
Recent news
External third-party headlines (Yahoo Finance, Reuters and others), not an editorial selection.
- Zacks Industry Outlook NOV, Oil States International and Natural Gas Services
- NOV (NOV) Stock Still Looks Undervalued Despite Its 64% Run
Peer Group
Oil & Gas Equipment & Services · 191 stocks
How this stock ranks against its industry: the green marker is this stock, the band is the typical 25–75% peer range, and the tick is the median.
Valuation Multiples vs Oil & Gas Equipment & Services median · lower = cheaper
Snowflake
Five quick dimensions, each 0 to 100: VALUE (fair-value potential), FUTURE (revenue growth), PAST (return on equity), HEALTH (low debt), DIVIDEND (yield). Green = this stock, grey = typical sector peer.
VALUE 0: the price sits above our fair-value range.
Insider activity: 44/100
Values & ESG
Does this company touch areas you may want to avoid? The classification is inferred from sector and industry.
ESG scores are not available for this stock yet. Values and ESG data are contextual and can differ between providers.
Similar stocks
10 more Oil & Gas Equipment & Services stocks, each showing price versus our Fair Value estimate (as of Jul 12, 2026).
| Stock | Price | Fair Value | vs Fair Value |
|---|---|---|---|
| SLB N.V SLBN | 836.00 MXN | 533.97 MXN | -36% |
| Baker Hughes Company BKR | $55.95 | $33.55 | -40% |
| TechnipFMC plc FTI | $74.57 | $27.57 | -63% |
| Halliburton Company HAL | $35.22 | $21.50 | -39% |
| Tenaris S.A TS | $57.16 | $45.68 | -20% |
| Yantai Jereh Oilfield Services Group 002353 | ¥138.79 | ¥34.17 | -75% |
| Saipem SpA SPM | €4.20 | €2.72 | -35% |
| Subsea 7 S.A SUBC | kr 319.00 | kr 227.98 | -29% |
| China Oilfield Services Limited 601808 | ¥11.20 | ¥11.43 | +2% |
| Gaztransport & Technigaz SA GTT | €188.10 | €95.01 | -49% |
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How we calculate Fair Value
Each company is valued through a stack of independent intrinsic-value models (DCF variants, residual-income, multiples and more), blended into one family-balanced consensus and weighted by how much trustworthy data backs it. A separate quality layer scores the fundamentals. Every input is real reported data, nothing guessed.
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