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NOV Inc. (NOV) fair value: what the stock is really worth

We calculate from audited financials what NOV Inc. is really worth. The fair value tells you whether the price is too high or too low, the quality score (0 to 100) how solid the business behind it is. 26 models, 37 quality factors, updated daily.

  1. Fair value above price? No
  2. Good quality? Yes
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Energy · US · ISIN US62955J1034

NI NOV Inc. logo Broad data Sep 18, 2026

NOV Inc.

NOV · US

Stretched ValuationStrong overvaluation with only moderate quality.

!Fair value $8.62 · Strongly overvalued (−57%)
!Quality 55/100
!Mixed Growth (revenue 5y +7.5 %/yr)
!Thin margins · 1.1% net margin (TTM)
✓Low debt · generates free cash flow
·1.56% dividend yield
!Trails peers (4/15)
!Narrow moat 28/100
!Insider activity 42/100
!Weak on past: 6 out of 100
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What runs behind every stock

26 valuation models 8 families, DCF to NCAV 37 quality factors margins, balance sheet, cashflow, debt 6 AI factors moat, what no ratio measures 2,000+ data points verified, per stock, median

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Price vs Fair Value

$22.89 $10.60 Fair Value $8.62 Jun 2021 Sep 2026

White line = price, green steps = our fair value per fiscal year, dashed = 300-day average. As of Sep 18, 2026.

How to read this chart

60‑month range $10.60 – $22.89 · fair‑value band $5.15 – $9.53 · the $20.15 price screens above the $8.62 fair value. Green steps = our fair value per fiscal year (point-in-time, no hindsight). 2 fiscal years are left out: there the valuation rested on only a fraction of the usual models. Dashed = 300-day average. As of Sep 18, 2026.

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Company profile

NOV Inc. designs, constructs, manufactures, and sells systems, components, and products for oil and gas drilling and production, and industrial and renewable energy sectors in the United States and internationally. It operates in two segments, Energy Equipment, and Energy Products and Services.

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NOV Inc. designs, constructs, manufactures, and sells systems, components, and products for oil and gas drilling and production, and industrial and renewable energy sectors in the United States and internationally. It operates in two segments, Energy Equipment, and Energy Products and Services. The Energy Products and Services segment offers drill bits and borehole enlargement products; independent drilling and intervention downhole tools equipment; frac plugs, frac sleeves, toe initiation burst port systems, and recyclable setting tools; electric submersible pumps, high viscosity pumps, and surface pumps; tubular coating and inspection services for drill-pipe and other oil country tubular goods; solids control and waste management equipment and services; data and digital solutions; precision-engineered drill pipe and drill-stem equipment; connectors and integral thread solutions, including conductor strings, surface casing, and liners; and composite pipe, tanks, and structures. Its Energy Equipment segment provides drilling equipment, such as land rigs, complete offshore drilling packages, and rig components; capital equipment, related consumables, and digital products for hydraulic stimulation, coiled tubing, and wireline services; marine and construction solutions; processing solutions for the separation and treatment of oil, gas, solids, seawater, and produced water production; flexible subsea pipe systems; cavity pumps, specialized mixers and heat exchangers; and reciprocating, multistage, and progressive cavity pumps, midstream products, including closures, transfer pumps, chokes and valves, as well as artificial lift support systems that include production BOPs and stuffing boxes. The company was formerly known as National Oilwell Varco, Inc. and changed its name to NOV Inc. in January 2021. NOV Inc. was founded in 1862 and is based in Houston, Texas.

Stock analysis

NOV Inc. (NOV) currently trades at $20.15, while our model-based Fair Value estimate is $8.62, implying the stock looks roughly 133.8% overvalued today.

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Valuation

Bull case: the Growth DCF group reads highest at a median of $25.29 per share, and 7 of the 25 models we run sit above the $20.15 price.

Bear case: the Growth Earnings group reads lowest at $4.88, and 18 of the 25 models stay below the price. Evidence for this calculation is high.

Scenario range: $5.15 (bear) to $9.53 (bull), the price of $20.15 sits above it. Bear and bull are the same models on cautious and optimistic assumptions, a range, not a price target.

Quality & growth

The Quality Score stands at 55/100 (solid quality), in the Energy sector.

Mixed Growth: Revenue is growing, but margins or cash flow do not fully confirm the trend.

NOV Inc. reported revenue of $8.7B in FY2025 versus $5.5B in FY2021, a compound +12.2%/yr. Reported net income was $145M in FY2025.

Key figures

Market cap $7.6B · P/E ratio 80.6 · P/S ratio 1.34 · EPS (TTM) $0.2500 · Dividend yield 1.6% · Net margin 1.7% · Return on equity 1.5% · Return on assets (EBIT) 3.9%.

Competitive moat

Our AI-assisted moat analysis scores the competitive advantage at 44 out of 100 (low confidence).

What moves the price

The share trades about 6% below its 52-week high and 74% above its 52-week low, currently above its 200-day average.

For context, the median of 10 Energy peers we cover trades at −21% fair-value upside, at −57%, NOV screens richer than that median.

Fair Value models

Bear $5.15 Fair Value $8.62 Bull $9.53
Model ⓘEach model values the company its own way (discounted cash flow, earnings, assets, dividends). The fair value above is their evidence-weighted blend, not the output of a single model. Bear ⓘBear = the cautious scenario: the same model computed with conservative anchors (lower growth, margins and valuation multiples). Together with Bull it frames a plausible valuation range, not a price target.BaseBull ⓘBull = the optimistic scenario: the same model computed with favourable anchors (higher growth, margins and valuation multiples). Together with Bear it frames a plausible valuation range, not a price target. Evidence ⓘEvidence = how well-backed THIS model's estimate is for this stock (0–100): how complete and reliable its input data are, and how well the model fits the company. The final Fair Value is an evidence-weighted blend, so better-evidenced models count more. Green ≥70, amber 50–69, grey below 50.
Highest evidence
FCF DCF $24.43 $35.41 $50.68 80
Growth DCF $24.99 $34.99 $48.23 79
Owner Earnings $3.21 $4.80 $7.01 76
All 25 models by family
DCF Models
FCF DCF $24.43 $35.41 $50.68 80
Owner Earnings $3.21 $4.80 $7.01 76
5Y Revenue Exit $17.31 $24.94 $34.24 73
5Y EBITDA Exit $15.21 $21.17 $27.69 76
5Y P/E Exit $11.20 $13.95 $16.54 72
10Y Revenue Exit $19.42 $26.72 $35.64 67
10Y EBITDA Exit $18.53 $24.21 $30.93 70
10Y P/E Exit $16.07 $19.41 $22.89 65
Earnings-Based
Graham-Dodd $2.75 $6.99 $9.09 65
PEG = 1.0 $1.30 $1.86 $2.42 57
EPV $8.23 $9.59 $10.77 74
Dividend Discount
Gordon GGM $4.65 $8.65 $13.96 66
DDM Multi-Stage $4.65 $6.97 $9.37 66
Multiples
P/E Multiple $4.24 $5.66 $7.07 63
P/S Multiple $5.15 $6.87 $8.59 58
P/B Multiple $5.15 $6.87 $8.59 55
EV/EBIT $11.41 $15.34 $19.27 66
EV/EBITDA $11.14 $14.99 $18.83 67
EV/Revenue $13.92 $20.05 $26.18 53
Asset-Based
NCAV (Graham) $8.73 $11.70 $17.47 54
Growth DCF
Growth DCF $24.99 $34.99 $48.23 79
Rev-Margin DCF $17.31 $25.29 $34.12 73
Economic Profit
Residual Income $12.32 $11.91 $9.55 76
ROIC Compounder $8.23 $9.59 $10.77 72
Growth Earnings
Growth-Adj P/E $3.42 $4.88 $6.35 67

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Quality Score breakdown

Overall quality 55/100

Of which business quality 57 · Market factors (momentum, volatility) 72

Profitability 30
Margins and returns on capital today
Quality Growth 18
Are margins and returns improving?
Cashflow 66
Earnings quality: real cash, not paper profit
Fin. Strength 61
Balance sheet, leverage, solvency risk
Investment 78
Disciplined investing over empire-building
Low Volatility 60
Calm price path (market factor)
Momentum 69
Price trend over the last 3–12 months (market factor)
52W Momentum 93
Distance to the 52-week high (market factor)
Net Issuance 100
Share count: buybacks or dilution?

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Revenue & earnings trend

Growth Quality ⓘGrowth is valuable only when reinvestment earns attractive returns (Aswath Damodaran): sustainable growth depends on return on capital, reinvestment and efficiency. Basis: total company revenue over the periods shown on the cards (3Y/5Y/all years), not per share, so a merger can show up as a growth jump; per-share earnings growth is in the value-creation card. 69/100
Revenue is growing, but margins or cash flow do not fully confirm the trend.
Revenue growth 1 year
−1.4%
Revenue growth 3 years ⓘMeasures the company's TOTAL revenue from reported annual statements: compound average growth per year (CAGR) from the fiscal year 3, 5 or N years back to the most recent comparable fiscal year. Not per share: buybacks do not change this number, and a merger can appear as a growth jump. Per-share growth (which does include buybacks) is in the value-creation card.
+6.5%
Revenue growth 5 years ⓘMeasures the company's TOTAL revenue from reported annual statements: compound average growth per year (CAGR) from the fiscal year 3, 5 or N years back to the most recent comparable fiscal year. Not per share: buybacks do not change this number, and a merger can appear as a growth jump. Per-share growth (which does include buybacks) is in the value-creation card.
+7.5%
Revenue growth 29 years ⓘMeasures the company's TOTAL revenue from reported annual statements: compound average growth per year (CAGR) from the fiscal year 3, 5 or N years back to the most recent comparable fiscal year. Not per share: buybacks do not change this number, and a merger can appear as a growth jump. Per-share growth (which does include buybacks) is in the value-creation card.
+9.4%
What shareholders gained per year (last 3 years) ⓘWhat the business itself delivers per year: earnings growth per share plus the dividend yield. This is what you get IF the market keeps valuing the stock the same way: it contains no assumption about the market changing its mind. Computed per share, so buybacks count and a merger does not pass as growth. For a company that pays no dividend it is pure earnings growth per share. Period: earnings growth per share as CAGR over the last 3 reported fiscal years (annual statements), plus the current dividend yield. The start value is the median of the three years around the start, so a single crisis year (a pandemic or a write-down) does not distort the rate. Basis: adjusted.
−11.6%
Earnings growth per share plus dividend.
Earnings per share, growth per year−13.2%
Dividend (yield on the price)1.6%
Profit margin 2020 to 2025 ⓘOperating margin then vs now, from reported annual statements. A falling margin after a boom year is the classic peak-earnings signal: the growth rate then leans on an inflated base.−40% → 7%
⚠ Revenue per share shrinking 6.7%/yr over ~10Y (margins eroding too) ⓘStructural-decline marker: revenue PER SHARE has fallen over the last decade (robust median trend, not a single year). Backtested across 2005 to 2017, such businesses trailed the market by about 2.5 percentage points per year. Display only: it does not change the fair value or the quality score.

Growth Forecast

Little optimism in the price
The price assumes less growth than the company has delivered so far and less than analysts expect.
What the price assumes ⓘThis turns our valuation around: instead of asking what the share is worth, it asks what growth the current price requires. It uses the cash the company keeps after all spending (free cash flow), the same discount rate as our models, five years of growth, then slowing evenly to 2 % a year by year ten. Compared with the analysts' sales forecasts extended to the same five years (at least three analysts, for context only, it does not enter the Fair Value): within 3 percentage points counts as "in line" (amber), below that little optimism (green), above that a lot of optimism (red).
−5.6%
Yearly growth needed for the next five years to justify today's price.
What forecasts expect ⓘAnalysts publish sales forecasts for the next two fiscal years. For the years after that, growth slows evenly to 2 % a year by year ten (2 % is the long-run rate our models use). Projected years are marked as such.
+3.5%
Yearly sales growth analysts expect, extended to five years.
Forecast 2026 (sales)−1.6%
Forecast 2027 (sales)+5.4%
Projected 2028 (sales)+5.0%
Projected 2029 (sales)+4.6%
Projected 2030 (sales)+4.1%

NOV screens 134% overvalued. Compare with SLB N.V →

Recent news

News mood ⓘNews mood, the average tone of recent news (98 articles), rated against how stocks are usually covered. 🚀 Hype = unusually upbeat · 🙂 Positive = above average · 😐 Neutral = typical · 🙁 Negative = below average · 😨 Very negative = unusually downbeat. It reflects the tone of coverage, not our valuation. Hype
Recent news coverage is unusually upbeat, far more positive than stocks are typically covered.

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Peer GroupⓘHow this stock ranks against its industry: the green marker is this stock, the band is the typical 25–75% peer range, and the tick is the median.Oil & Gas Equipment & Services · 188 stocks

Beats the industry median on 6/15 measures
A mixed picture versus its industry peers.
Valuation
Quality Score 55 · Above median
Fair Value upside −67% · Bottom 25%
Profitability
Return on equity (TTM) 2% · Below median
Return on assets 3% · Above median
Net margin (TTM) 1% · Below median
Operating margin (TTM) 2% · Below median
Growth and dividend
Revenue growth −2% · Below median
Dividend yield (TTM) 1.6% · Below median
Balance sheet
Debt / equity 0.27× · Above median

Valuation Multiplesvs Oil & Gas Equipment & Services median · lower = cheaper

P/E (TTM) 80.6× · Priciest 25%
P/B 1.08× · Cheaper than median
P/S (TTM) 0.78× · Cheaper than median
P/FCF 7.8× · Cheaper than median
EV/EBITDA 7.4× · Cheaper than median
PEG 1.17× · Pricier than median

Strength profile in five axes (Snowflake)

VALUEFUTUREPASTHEALTHDIVIDEND
This stock
VALUEFUTUREPASTHEALTHDIVIDEND
Sector peers
VALUE (fair-value potential)0 · sector 6
FUTURE (revenue growth)0 · sector 2
PAST (return on equity)6 · sector 28
HEALTH (low debt)87 · sector 92
DIVIDEND (yield)31 · sector 34

VALUE 0: the price sits above our fair-value range.

Context: sector, industry, market

Values & ESG

Does this company touch areas you may want to avoid? The classification is inferred from sector and industry.

Oil & gas

Similar stocks

10 more Oil & Gas Equipment & Services stocks, each showing price versus our Fair Value estimate.

Stock Price Fair Value vs Fair Value
SLB N.V SLB $54.20 $28.66 −47%
Baker Hughes Company BKR $56.32 $32.40 −42%
TechnipFMC plc FTI $72.78 $27.68 −62%
Halliburton Company HAL $35.67 $21.50 −40%
Tenaris S.A TS $57.39 $45.68 −20%
Yantai Jereh Oilfield Services Group 002353 ¥121.40 ¥128.30 +6%
Saipem SpA SPM €4.33 €2.72 −37%
Subsea 7 S.A SUBC kr 330.60 kr 261.77 −21%
China Oilfield Services Limited 601808 ¥12.07 ¥13.04 +8%
Gaztransport & Technigaz SA GTT €227.00 €249.70 +10%

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NOV Inc. · Fair Value
$8.62 −134%Fair Value
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Cite: Fair Value Calculator (2026). "NOV Inc. Fair Value". https://www.fairvalue-calculator.com/stock/NOV

Frequently asked questions

Is NOV Inc. (NOV) overvalued or undervalued?
As of Sep 18, 2026, our model estimates a fair value of $8.62 versus a price of $20.15, about −57% upside (overvalued).
What is the fair value of NOV?
Our model-based fair value for NOV Inc. is $8.62 (as of Sep 18, 2026), built from audited fundamentals. The current price: $20.15.
What is the quality score of NOV?
NOV Inc. has a Quality Score of 55/100. It measures business quality (profitability, growth, cash flow, balance-sheet strength, investment discipline, share issuance). Market factors such as price momentum and volatility do not enter the number; they are shown separately in the detail view.
What is the price target for NOV Inc. (NOV)?
Our model-based price target is the fair value of $8.62 (as of Sep 18, 2026) from 25 valuation models. Cautious scenario $5.15, optimistic scenario $9.53. It is a calculation from audited fundamentals, not an analyst target.
What is the NOV Inc. stock forecast for 2026?
Our models put fair value at $8.62, about −57% upside versus a price of $20.15 (overvalued). Cautious scenario $5.15, optimistic scenario $9.53. The calculation is refreshed regularly with new filings.
What is the revenue of NOV Inc. (NOV)?
NOV Inc. reported trailing-twelve-month revenue of about $8.7B (latest available figure, as of Sep 18, 2026).
Does NOV Inc. pay a dividend?
NOV Inc. currently shows a dividend yield of about 1.56% relative to its recent price (as of Sep 18, 2026).
What growth is priced into NOV Inc. (NOV)?
For today's price to be fair in a discounted-cash-flow model, NOV Inc. would have to grow free cash flow by -5.6 % per year for five years (discount rate 9.5 %, then slowing evenly to 2 % perpetual growth by year ten). Over the last 5 years revenue grew +7.5 % per year. As of Sep 18, 2026.
What discount rate (WACC) does the fair value of NOV use?
Our models discount NOV Inc. at 9.5 %: a base by market capitalisation (mid), damped by beta 0.91, country premium for USA. The same rate applies in all 26 models.
What is a reverse DCF?
A reverse DCF turns the usual calculation around. Instead of deriving a value from assumptions, it takes today's price as given and asks: what free-cash-flow growth would a company have to deliver for exactly this price to be fair? The result is not a forecast but the expectation already priced in. For NOV Inc. that is -5.6 % per year a year over ten years, using the same discount rate (9.5 %) and the same formula as our fair value.
How much growth has NOV Inc. (NOV) delivered so far?
Over the past 5 years revenue at NOV Inc. grew +7.5 % a year. The price currently implies -5.6 % per year free-cash-flow growth a year. Comparing the two shows how much confidence is in the price: if it demands more than has been delivered, the business has to accelerate for the maths to work.
How fast is the sector of NOV Inc. (NOV) growing?
The median revenue growth in the sector is +1.6 % a year. That is the yardstick for the growth priced into NOV Inc. (-5.6 % per year a year): it shows whether the expectation is within the usual range or beyond it.
What is the free cash flow yield of NOV Inc. (NOV)?
The free-cash-flow yield on the price is 11.48 %: that much free cash flow NOV Inc. produces per unit of market value. When it exceeds the discount rate of our models (9.5 %), the business already earns more than its cost of capital demands, and the price needs little additional growth.
What is the intrinsic value of NOV Inc. (NOV)?
Intrinsic value and fair value mean the same thing: what the business is worth on its numbers, independent of the share price. For NOV Inc. it is $8.62 per share (as of Sep 18, 2026), against a price of $20.15. It is the blended result of 25 valuation models (cash flow, earnings, asset, dividend).
Is NOV Inc. stock overvalued or undervalued in 2026?
As of Sep 18, 2026, NOV trades above its calculated fair value: price $20.15, fair value $8.62, a gap of about −57% (overvalued). The calculation is refreshed with each new quarterly report, so the verdict can change during the year.
Is fair value the same as the market price of NOV?
No. The price is what the market pays today ($20.15); the fair value is what the company's own numbers justify ($8.62). For NOV Inc. the two are $11.53 per share apart. That gap is exactly why we show both numbers side by side.
How much is NOV Inc. worth?
The market values NOV Inc. at about $7.6B (market capitalisation, as of Sep 18, 2026). Per share that is $20.15; our models calculate a fair value of $8.62 per share.
What do the bullish and bearish scenarios say about NOV?
Our models span a range for NOV Inc.: cautious scenario $5.15, base $8.62, optimistic $9.53 per share (as of Sep 18, 2026, price $20.15). The range comes from different growth and margin assumptions, not from analyst opinions.
What is the P/E ratio of NOV?
NOV Inc. trades at a price-to-earnings ratio of 80.6 (as of Sep 18, 2026). A P/E on its own says little: it compares the price with ONE year of profit, while our fair value of $8.62 is built from several models across several years. Other multiples: PEG 1.2, P/B 1.1, P/S 0.8, EV/EBITDA 7.4.
What is the PEG ratio of NOV?
The PEG ratio of NOV Inc. is 1.17 (P/E divided by earnings growth, as of Sep 18, 2026). That is above 1, so the growth is already paid for in the price.
How solid is the balance sheet of NOV Inc. (NOV)?
Balance-sheet figures for NOV Inc. (as of Sep 18, 2026): return on equity 1.5%, debt of 0.27 per unit of equity. They feed the Quality Score of 55/100, which measures business quality independently of the share price.
How far is NOV from its 52-week high?
NOV Inc. trades at $20.15, about 6% below its 52-week high of $21.55 and 74% above the low of $11.55 (as of Sep 18, 2026). Distance from the high says nothing about value: that is what the fair value of $8.62 is for.
Which stocks are comparable to NOV Inc.?
From the same area (Energy) we also value SLB N.V, Baker Hughes Company, TechnipFMC plc, Halliburton Company, among others. Each of them has its own fair-value calculation on this site using the same models, so the comparison is like for like.
Is NOV Inc. stock attractive at the current price?
The data as of Sep 18, 2026: price $20.15, calculated fair value $8.62 (−57%), Quality Score 55/100, from 25 models. Whether that fits your horizon and risk tolerance is your call. We provide the calculation, not investment advice.
How is the fair value of NOV calculated?
We run NOV Inc. through 25 models from four families: discounted cash flow, earnings models, asset and balance-sheet models, and dividend models. Every model gets the same audited fundamentals; the result is the weighted average of $8.62, with the spread shown as a cautious and an optimistic scenario.
Is it still worth investing in stocks now?
The global stock market currently sits 16.1 % above its aggregate fair value. NOV Inc. itself currently trades above fair value. An expensive market is no reason to stay out and no reason to buy everything at once: keep a broad savings plan running, buy single stocks only with money you can do without, and hold part of your money liquid while the market is high. The full picture including sectors is on is it worth investing now.
What is the share price of NOV Inc. (NOV)?
The closing price on Sep 21, 2026 was $20.15. Our model-based fair value is $8.62, about −57% upside (overvalued). We carry closing prices from our data provider, not a live tick.
What should I pay attention to with NOV Inc. right now?
The price sits above even our optimistic bull case ($9.53). The favourable scenario is already priced in. Solid but not exceptional quality (55/100) and above fair value, neither a clear bargain nor a standout compounder. A fairly wide model range ($5.15 to $9.53) leaves room in how you read the outcome.

Key figures of NOV Inc.

How large is the market capitalisation of NOV Inc. (NOV)?
The market capitalisation of NOV Inc. is $7.6B. The stock-market value of the whole company: share price times number of shares. It is what the market asks for the entire business today.
What is the P/S ratio of NOV Inc. (NOV)?
The price-to-sales ratio of NOV Inc. is 1.34 (P/E × margin). Price to sales: market value relative to yearly revenue. Useful when profit is thin or distorted.
What are the earnings per share of NOV Inc. (NOV)?
Earnings per share at NOV Inc. are $0.2500 (price ÷ EPS = P/E 80.6). Earnings per share over the last twelve months: total profit spread across every single share.
What is the dividend yield of NOV Inc. (NOV)?
The dividend yield of NOV Inc. is 1.6% (payout 126%). Yearly dividend relative to the share price. 3% pays 3 per 100 invested. Below: how much of profit is used for it.
What is the net margin of NOV Inc. (NOV)?
The net margin of NOV Inc. is 1.7% (fiscal year 2025). How much of every unit of revenue ends up as profit. 10% means 10 cents of profit per dollar of sales.
What is the return on equity of NOV Inc. (NOV)?
The return on equity (ROE) of NOV Inc. is 1.5% (last twelve months). Profit relative to shareholders' equity, how efficiently the company works with its owners' money.
What is the EBIT return on assets of NOV Inc. (NOV)?
On an EBIT basis the return on assets of NOV Inc. is 3.9% (avg 5y). Operating profit (EBIT) relative to everything the company owns, as a multi-year average. It describes the business model rather than one good or bad year.
What is the operating margin of NOV Inc. (NOV)?
The operating margin of NOV Inc. is 2.3% (last twelve months). Profit from the core business (before interest and taxes) relative to revenue.
How fast is revenue growing at NOV Inc. (NOV)?
Revenue at NOV Inc. is growing −2.4% versus a year earlier (3y avg +6.5%). How much revenue grew versus a year earlier (YoY). The 3-year average next to it puts the single year in context.
How fast are earnings growing at NOV Inc. (NOV)?
Earnings per share at NOV Inc. are growing −73.7% versus a year earlier. How much earnings per share grew versus a year earlier.
How much net debt does NOV Inc. (NOV) carry?
The net debt of NOV Inc. is $788M (fiscal year 2025, ≈ 0.9 yrs of FCF). Debt minus cash on hand. The note shows how many years of free cash flow could in theory pay it off.
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