Foshan Nationstar Optoelectronics Co Ltd (002449) fair value: what the stock is really worth
As of Nov 9, 2026: fair value (intrinsic value) of Foshan Nationstar Optoelectronics Co Ltd stock ¥2.16, price ¥5.97, that is 63.8% below the price, quality 47 out of 100. Rating: strongly overvalued. Calculated from audited financials with 12 of our 26 valuation models and 37 quality factors, updated daily.
69 individual criteria per stock, every one traceableSee the method →
Price vs Fair Value
White line = price, green steps = our fair value per fiscal year. As of Nov 9, 2026.
How to read this chart
60‑month range ¥5.51 – ¥14.25 · fair‑value band ¥2.08 – ¥2.29 · the ¥5.97 price screens above the ¥2.16 fair value. Green steps = our fair value per fiscal year (point-in-time, no hindsight). As of Nov 9, 2026.
Follow Foshan Nationstar Optoelectronics Co in your weekly email
Every Wednesday you see whether Foshan Nationstar Optoelectronics Co is on track or worth a review, plus price against fair value. Free, up to 3 stocks.
We send you a confirmation link. Unsubscribe with one click.
Foshan NationStar Optoelectronics Co.,Ltd provides LED component products in the People's Republic of China and internationally. It offers LED chips, LED display components, photoelectron components, lighting components, LED modules, and semiconductor-related products.
Show moreShow less
Foshan NationStar Optoelectronics Co.,Ltd was founded in 1981 and is based in Foshan, the People's Republic of China.
Stock analysis
Foshan Nationstar Optoelectronics Co Ltd (002449) currently trades at ¥5.97, while our model-based Fair Value estimate is ¥2.16, 64% below the price, so the stock looks overvalued today.
Show more
Valuation
Bull case: the DCF Models group reads highest at a median of ¥2.67 per share, and 3 of the 12 models we run sit above the ¥5.97 price.
Bear case: the Earnings-Based group reads lowest at ¥2.10, and 9 of the 12 models stay below the price. Data coverage for this calculation is low.
Scenario range: ¥2.08 (bear) to ¥2.29 (bull), the price of ¥5.97 sits above it. Bear and bull are the same models on cautious and optimistic assumptions, a range, not a price target.
Quality & growth
The Quality Score stands at 47/100 (below-average quality), in the Technology sector.
Weak Growth: Growth has flattened: the last year, three and five years all grew more slowly than the long-term average.
Foshan Nationstar Optoelectronics Co Ltd reported revenue of 3.3B CNY in FY2025 versus 4.0B CNY in FY2021, a compound −5.1%/yr. Reported net income was −13.0M CNY in FY2025.
Key figures
Market cap 3.7B CNY (≈ $553M) Small · P/S ratio 1.38 · EPS (TTM) ¥−0.2100 · Dividend yield 1.0% · Net margin −4.9% · Return on equity −3.5% · Return on assets (EBIT) 1.6% (5-year average) · Operating margin 0.5%.
Competitive moat
Our AI-assisted moat analysis scores the competitive advantage at 16 out of 100 (low confidence).
What moves the price
The share trades about 36% below its 52-week high and 6% above its 52-week low, currently below its 200-day average.
For context, the median of 10 Technology peers we cover trades at −7% fair-value upside, at −64%, 002449 screens richer than that median.
Fair Value models
Bear¥2.08Fair Value ¥2.16Bull¥2.29
Price ¥5.97 · Downside -63.8%
Model ⓘEach model values the company its own way (discounted cash flow, earnings, assets, dividends). The fair value above starts from their evidence-weighted blend, not from a single model. In cyclical trough or peak years, after dilution or a stock split it is adjusted afterwards, so it can sit above or below the models.Bear ⓘBear = the cautious scenario: the same model computed with conservative anchors (lower growth, margins and valuation multiples). Together with Bull it frames a plausible valuation range, not a price target.BaseBull ⓘBull = the optimistic scenario: the same model computed with favourable anchors (higher growth, margins and valuation multiples). Together with Bear it frames a plausible valuation range, not a price target. If a model's bull case is above four times its base value, the table shows that limit with a > sign (like the overall Bull above): beyond it no assumption holds.Coverage ⓘCoverage = how well-backed THIS model's estimate is for this stock (0–100): how complete and reliable its input data are, and how well the model fits the company. The final Fair Value is an evidence-weighted blend, so better-evidenced models count more. Green ≥70, amber 50–69, grey below 50.
Growth Quality ⓘGrowth is valuable only when reinvestment earns attractive returns (Aswath Damodaran): sustainable growth depends on return on capital, reinvestment and efficiency. Basis: total company revenue over the periods shown on the cards (3Y/5Y/all years), not per share, so a merger can show up as a growth jump; per-share earnings growth is in the value-creation card.23/100
Growth has flattened: the last year, three and five years all grew more slowly than the long-term average.
Revenue growth 1 year
−5.5%
Revenue growth 3 years ⓘMeasures the company's TOTAL revenue from reported annual statements: compound average growth per year (CAGR) from the fiscal year 3, 5 or N years back to the most recent comparable fiscal year. Not per share: buybacks do not change this number, and a merger can appear as a growth jump. Per-share growth (which does include buybacks) is in the value-creation card.
−2.9%
Revenue growth 5 years ⓘMeasures the company's TOTAL revenue from reported annual statements: compound average growth per year (CAGR) from the fiscal year 3, 5 or N years back to the most recent comparable fiscal year. Not per share: buybacks do not change this number, and a merger can appear as a growth jump. Per-share growth (which does include buybacks) is in the value-creation card.
+0.1%
Start year 2020 (pandemic). Over 10 years: +6.0% a year
Revenue growth 18 years ⓘMeasures the company's TOTAL revenue from reported annual statements: compound average growth per year (CAGR) from the fiscal year 3, 5 or N years back to the most recent comparable fiscal year. Not per share: buybacks do not change this number, and a merger can appear as a growth jump. Per-share growth (which does include buybacks) is in the value-creation card.
+11.8%
’14
’15
’16
’17
’18
’19
’20
’21
’22
’23
’24
’25
Profit margin (trend) ⓘOperating margin then vs now, from reported annual statements. A falling margin after a boom year is the classic peak-earnings signal: the growth rate then leans on an inflated base.
3.6% (2020) → 0.4% (2025)
What shareholders gained per year ⓘWe only publish this rate when it is defensible. Reason: fiscal 2025 is a loss year, no rate is defined from a loss
not computed
Growth Forecast
A lot of optimism in the price
The price assumes more growth than the company has delivered so far.
What the price assumes ⓘThis turns our valuation around: instead of asking what the share is worth, it asks what growth the current price requires. It uses the cash the company keeps after all spending (free cash flow), the same discount rate as our models, five years of growth, then slowing evenly to 2 % a year by year ten. Compared with the analysts' sales forecasts extended to the same five years (at least three analysts, for context only, it does not enter the Fair Value): within 3 percentage points counts as "in line" (amber), below that little optimism (green), above that a lot of optimism (red).
+42.6%
Yearly growth needed for the next five years to justify today's price.
What forecasts expect
n/a
No analyst forecast available.
Calculated on free cash flow for fiscal year 2025. Over the last twelve months it was negative, so the figure above is uncertain.
After inflation (China: IMF forecast 1.7% a year to 2030, 1.4% from 2016 to 2025) that is about +40.3% a year for the price.
Compare Foshan Nationstar Optoelectronics Co Ltd with another stock
Price, fair value, quality and upside side by side.
Free, no sign-up
Peer GroupⓘHow this stock ranks against its industry: the green marker is this stock, the band is the typical 25–75% peer range, and the tick is the median.Electronic Components · 655 stocks
Beats the industry median on 3/12 measures
Overall it trails its industry peers.
Valuation
Quality Score47 · Below median
Fair Value upside−63.8% · Below median
Profitability
Return on assets−0.2% · Bottom 25%
Net margin (12 months)−4.9% · Bottom 25%
Operating margin (12 months)0.5% · Below median
Growth and dividend
Revenue growth (quarter YoY)−25.5% · Bottom 25%
Dividend yield (12 months)1.0% · Below median
Balance sheet
Debt / equity0.02× · Below median
Valuation Multiplesvs Electronic Components median · lower = cheaper
For bloggers, editors and developers: paste this into your site or blog (a “Custom HTML” block in WordPress), it shows the current fair value and links back here. Free, plain HTML, and welcome. Full data streams (CSV/JSON) at /developers.
Cite: Fair Value Calculator (2026). "Foshan Nationstar Optoelectronics Co Ltd Fair Value". https://www.fairvalue-calculator.com/stock/002449
Frequently asked questions
Is Foshan Nationstar Optoelectronics Co Ltd (002449) overvalued or undervalued?
As of Nov 9, 2026, our model estimates a fair value of ¥2.16 versus a price of ¥5.97, about 64% lower (overvalued).
What is the fair value of 002449?
Our model-based fair value for Foshan Nationstar Optoelectronics Co Ltd is ¥2.16 (as of Nov 9, 2026), built from audited fundamentals. The current price: ¥5.97.
What is the quality score of 002449?
Foshan Nationstar Optoelectronics Co Ltd has a Quality Score of 47/100. It measures business quality (profitability, growth, cash flow, balance-sheet strength, investment discipline, share issuance). Market factors such as price momentum and volatility do not enter the number; they are shown separately in the detail view.
What is the price target for Foshan Nationstar Optoelectronics Co Ltd (002449)?
Our model-based price target is the fair value of ¥2.16 (as of Nov 9, 2026) from 12 valuation models. Cautious scenario ¥2.08, optimistic scenario ¥2.29. It is a calculation from audited fundamentals, not an analyst target.
What is the Foshan Nationstar Optoelectronics Co Ltd stock forecast for 2026?
Our models put fair value at ¥2.16, about 64% lower versus a price of ¥5.97 (overvalued). Cautious scenario ¥2.08, optimistic scenario ¥2.29. The calculation is refreshed regularly with new filings.
What is the revenue of Foshan Nationstar Optoelectronics Co Ltd (002449)?
Foshan Nationstar Optoelectronics Co Ltd reported trailing-twelve-month revenue of about 2.7B CNY (latest available figure, as of Nov 9, 2026).
Does Foshan Nationstar Optoelectronics Co Ltd pay a dividend?
Foshan Nationstar Optoelectronics Co Ltd currently shows a dividend yield of 1.04% relative to its recent price (as of Nov 9, 2026).
How much is the dividend of Foshan Nationstar Optoelectronics Co Ltd (002449)?
Foshan Nationstar Optoelectronics Co Ltd has a dividend yield of 1.0%.
What growth is priced into Foshan Nationstar Optoelectronics Co Ltd (002449)?
For today's price to be fair in a discounted-cash-flow model, Foshan Nationstar Optoelectronics Co Ltd would have to grow free cash flow by +42.6 % per year for five years (discount rate 10.6 %, then slowing evenly to 2 % perpetual growth by year ten). Over the last 5 years revenue grew +0.1 % per year. Calculated on free cash flow for fiscal year 2025. Over the last twelve months it was negative, so the figure above is uncertain. As of Nov 9, 2026.
What discount rate (WACC) does the fair value of 002449 use?
Our models discount Foshan Nationstar Optoelectronics Co Ltd at 10.6 %: a base by market capitalisation (small), damped by beta 0.56, country premium for China. The same rate applies in all 26 models.
What is a reverse DCF?
A reverse DCF turns the usual calculation around. Instead of deriving a value from assumptions, it takes today's price as given and asks: what free-cash-flow growth would a company have to deliver for exactly this price to be fair? The result is not a forecast but the expectation already priced in. For Foshan Nationstar Optoelectronics Co Ltd that is +42.6 % per year for five years, then slowing evenly to 2 % by year ten, using the same discount rate (10.6 %) and the same formula as our fair value.
How much growth has Foshan Nationstar Optoelectronics Co Ltd (002449) delivered so far?
Over the past 5 years revenue at Foshan Nationstar Optoelectronics Co Ltd grew +0.1 % a year. The price currently implies free-cash-flow growth of +42.6 % per year. Comparing the two shows how much confidence is in the price: if it demands more than has been delivered, the business has to accelerate for the maths to work.
How fast is the sector of Foshan Nationstar Optoelectronics Co Ltd (002449) growing?
The median revenue growth in the sector is +11.5 % a year. That is the yardstick for the growth priced into Foshan Nationstar Optoelectronics Co Ltd (+42.6 % per year): it shows whether the expectation is within the usual range or beyond it.
What is the free cash flow yield of Foshan Nationstar Optoelectronics Co Ltd (002449)?
The free-cash-flow yield on the price is 0.72 % in the last fiscal year (free cash flow was negative over the last twelve months): that much free cash flow Foshan Nationstar Optoelectronics Co Ltd produces per unit of market value. When it exceeds the discount rate of our models (10.6 %), the business already earns more than its cost of capital demands, and the price needs little additional growth.
What is the intrinsic value of Foshan Nationstar Optoelectronics Co Ltd (002449)?
Intrinsic value and fair value mean the same thing: what the business is worth on its numbers, independent of the share price. For Foshan Nationstar Optoelectronics Co Ltd it is ¥2.16 per share (as of Nov 9, 2026), against a price of ¥5.97. It is the blended result of 12 valuation models in 6 families (DCF Models, Earnings-Based, Multiples, Asset-Based, Growth DCF, Economic Profit).
Is Foshan Nationstar Optoelectronics Co Ltd stock overvalued or undervalued in 2026?
As of Nov 9, 2026, 002449 trades above its calculated fair value: price ¥5.97, fair value ¥2.16, a gap of about −64% (overvalued). The calculation is refreshed with each new quarterly report, so the verdict can change during the year.
Is fair value the same as the market price of 002449?
No. The price is what the market pays today (¥5.97); the fair value is what the company's own numbers justify (¥2.16). For Foshan Nationstar Optoelectronics Co Ltd the two are ¥3.81 per share apart. That gap is exactly why we show both numbers side by side.
How much is Foshan Nationstar Optoelectronics Co Ltd worth?
The market values Foshan Nationstar Optoelectronics Co Ltd at about 3.7B CNY (market capitalisation, as of Nov 9, 2026). Per share that is ¥5.97; our models calculate a fair value of ¥2.16 per share.
What do the bullish and bearish scenarios say about 002449?
Our models span a range for Foshan Nationstar Optoelectronics Co Ltd: cautious scenario ¥2.08, base ¥2.16, optimistic ¥2.29 per share (as of Nov 9, 2026, price ¥5.97). The range comes from different growth and margin assumptions, not from analyst opinions.
How solid is the balance sheet of Foshan Nationstar Optoelectronics Co Ltd (002449)?
Balance-sheet figures for Foshan Nationstar Optoelectronics Co Ltd (as of Nov 9, 2026): return on equity −3.5%, debt of 0.02 per unit of equity. They feed the Quality Score of 47/100, which measures business quality independently of the share price.
How far is 002449 from its 52-week high?
Foshan Nationstar Optoelectronics Co Ltd trades at ¥5.97, about 36% below its 52-week high of ¥9.27 and 6% above the low of ¥5.65 (as of Nov 9, 2026). Distance from the high says nothing about value: that is what the fair value of ¥2.16 is for.
Which stocks are comparable to Foshan Nationstar Optoelectronics Co Ltd?
From the same area (Technology) we also value Amphenol Corporation, Hon Hai Precision Industry Co, Corning Incorporated, Delta Electronics, Inc, among others. Each of them has its own fair-value calculation on this site using the same models, so the comparison is like for like.
Is Foshan Nationstar Optoelectronics Co Ltd stock attractive at the current price?
The data as of Nov 9, 2026: price ¥5.97, calculated fair value ¥2.16 (−64%), Quality Score 47/100, from 12 models. Whether that fits your horizon and risk tolerance is your call. We provide the calculation, not investment advice.
How is the fair value of 002449 calculated?
We run Foshan Nationstar Optoelectronics Co Ltd through 12 models from 6 families: DCF Models, Earnings-Based, Multiples, Asset-Based, Growth DCF, Economic Profit. Every model gets the same audited fundamentals; the fair value of ¥2.16 builds on their evidence-weighted average, with the spread shown as a cautious and an optimistic scenario.
Is it still worth investing in stocks now?
The global stock market currently sits 13.3% above its aggregate fair value. Foshan Nationstar Optoelectronics Co Ltd itself currently trades above fair value. An expensive market is no reason to stay out and no reason to buy everything at once: keep a broad savings plan running, buy single stocks only with money you can do without, and hold part of your money liquid while the market is high. The full picture including sectors is on is it worth investing now.
What is the share price of Foshan Nationstar Optoelectronics Co Ltd (002449)?
The closing price on Nov 9, 2026 was ¥5.97. Our model-based fair value is ¥2.16, about 64% lower (overvalued). We carry closing prices from our data provider, not a live tick.
What should I pay attention to with Foshan Nationstar Optoelectronics Co Ltd right now?
The price sits above even our optimistic bull case (¥2.29). The favourable scenario is already priced in. Weak quality (47/100) and above fair value at the same time, the margin of safety is missing on both counts. The large gap to fair value rests on thin data (low evidence): fewer applicable models and a shorter history. Read it with extra caution. The models converge in a tight band (¥2.08 to ¥2.29), unusually little disagreement for a valuation.
Where does the earnings growth of Foshan Nationstar Optoelectronics Co Ltd (002449) come from?
Earnings per share at Foshan Nationstar Optoelectronics Co Ltd grew −6.1 % a year from 2013 to 2024. Broken into its drivers: revenue per share +8.9 %, EBIT margin −13.0 %, tax rate +2.2 %, residual (interest, one-offs) −3.0 %. The four rates multiply to the earnings growth rate, they do not add up. Start and end are three-year averages so a single exceptional year does not distort the result.
Key figures of Foshan Nationstar Optoelectronics Co Ltd
How large is the market capitalisation of Foshan Nationstar Optoelectronics Co Ltd (002449)?
The market capitalisation of Foshan Nationstar Optoelectronics Co Ltd is 3.7B CNY (≈ $553M). The stock-market value of the whole company: share price times number of shares. It is what the market asks for the entire business today.
What is the P/S ratio of Foshan Nationstar Optoelectronics Co Ltd (002449)?
The price-to-sales ratio of Foshan Nationstar Optoelectronics Co Ltd is 1.38 (last twelve months). Price to sales: market value relative to yearly revenue. Useful when profit is thin or distorted.
What are the earnings per share of Foshan Nationstar Optoelectronics Co Ltd (002449)?
Earnings per share at Foshan Nationstar Optoelectronics Co Ltd are ¥−0.2100. Earnings per share over the last twelve months: total profit spread across every single share.
What is the dividend yield of Foshan Nationstar Optoelectronics Co Ltd (002449)?
The dividend yield of Foshan Nationstar Optoelectronics Co Ltd is 1.0%. Yearly dividend relative to the share price. 3% pays 3 per 100 invested. Below: how much of profit is used for it.
What is the net margin of Foshan Nationstar Optoelectronics Co Ltd (002449)?
The net margin of Foshan Nationstar Optoelectronics Co Ltd is −4.9% (last twelve months). How much of every unit of revenue ends up as profit. 10% means 10 cents of profit per dollar of sales.
What is the return on equity of Foshan Nationstar Optoelectronics Co Ltd (002449)?
The return on equity (ROE) of Foshan Nationstar Optoelectronics Co Ltd is −3.5% (last twelve months). Profit relative to shareholders' equity, how efficiently the company works with its owners' money.
What is the EBIT return on assets of Foshan Nationstar Optoelectronics Co Ltd (002449)?
On an EBIT basis the return on assets of Foshan Nationstar Optoelectronics Co Ltd is 1.6% (avg 5y). Operating profit (EBIT) relative to everything the company owns, as a multi-year average. It describes the business model rather than one good or bad year.
What is the operating margin of Foshan Nationstar Optoelectronics Co Ltd (002449)?
The operating margin of Foshan Nationstar Optoelectronics Co Ltd is 0.5% (last twelve months). Profit from the core business (before interest and taxes) relative to revenue.
How fast is revenue growing at Foshan Nationstar Optoelectronics Co Ltd (002449)?
Revenue at Foshan Nationstar Optoelectronics Co Ltd is growing −25.5% versus a year earlier (3y avg −2.9%). How much revenue grew versus a year earlier (YoY). The 3-year average next to it puts the single year in context.
How fast are earnings growing at Foshan Nationstar Optoelectronics Co Ltd (002449)?
Earnings per share at Foshan Nationstar Optoelectronics Co Ltd are growing −37.5% versus a year earlier. How much earnings per share grew versus a year earlier.
How much net cash does Foshan Nationstar Optoelectronics Co Ltd (002449) hold?
Foshan Nationstar Optoelectronics Co Ltd holds more cash than debt, 1.0B CNY net (fiscal year 2024). The company holds more cash than debt, a safety cushion.
Free · no account needed
Watch Foshan Nationstar Optoelectronics Co Ltd in the live analysis
One click puts Foshan Nationstar Optoelectronics Co Ltd on your watchlist: fair value and trend at a glance, plus comparison, the diversification check and the 27,000+ stock screener.
Thin data
Nov 9, 2026