First Milling Company SJSC (2283) fair value: what the stock is really worth
As of Nov 8, 2026: fair value (intrinsic value) of First Milling Company SJSC stock SAR 84.28, price SAR 56.60, upside +48.9%, quality 66 out of 100. Rating: undervalued. Calculated from audited financials with 24 of our 26 valuation models and 37 quality factors, updated daily.
69 individual criteria per stock, every one traceableSee the method →
Price vs Fair Value
White line = price, green steps = our fair value per fiscal year. As of Nov 6, 2026.
How to read this chart
41‑month range 44.56 SAR – 87.56 SAR · fair‑value band 50.41 SAR – 109.57 SAR · the 56.60 SAR price screens below the 84.28 SAR fair value. Green steps = our fair value per fiscal year (point-in-time, no hindsight). As of Nov 6, 2026.
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The First Milling Company produces and sells flour products in the Kingdom of Saudi Arabia. It provides flour, bran, semolina, specialty flour, peeled and crushed wheat under First Mills and Aloula brand name.
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In addition, it offers complete crushed feed, livestock fattener, lamb, horse, pigeon, dairy cattle, poultry feed pellet under the Naffa'a brand name. The First Milling Company was founded in 1972 and is based in Jeddah, Saudi Arabia.
Stock analysis
First Milling Company SJSC (2283) currently trades at 56.60 SAR, while our model-based Fair Value estimate is 84.28 SAR, implying the stock looks roughly 33% undervalued today.
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Valuation
Bull case: the DCF Models group reads highest at a median of 87.63 SAR per share, and 12 of the 24 models we run sit above the 56.60 SAR price.
Bear case: the Dividend Discount group reads lowest at 40.22 SAR, and 12 of the 24 models stay below the price. Data coverage for this calculation is high.
Scenario range: 50.41 SAR (bear) to 109.57 SAR (bull), the price of 56.60 SAR sits inside it. Bear and bull are the same models on cautious and optimistic assumptions, a range, not a price target.
Quality & growth
The Quality Score stands at 66/100 (solid quality), in the Consumer Defensive sector.
Healthy Growth: Revenue growth appears healthy and is supported by profitability and cash-flow quality.
First Milling Company SJSC reported revenue of 1.1B SAR in FY2025 versus 801M SAR in FY2021, a compound +9.4%/yr. Reported net income was 277M SAR in FY2025, compounding +8.7%/yr from FY2021.
Key figures
Market cap 3.1B SAR (≈ $838M) Small · P/E ratio 10.8 · P/S ratio 2.50 · EPS (TTM) 5.25 SAR · Dividend yield 3.0% · Net margin 23.2% · Return on equity 28.0% · Return on assets (EBIT) 13.3% (5-year average).
Competitive moat
Our AI-assisted moat analysis scores the competitive advantage at 81 out of 100 (medium confidence).
What moves the price
The share trades about 1% below its 52-week high and 27% above its 52-week low, currently above its 200-day average.
For context, the median of 10 Consumer Defensive peers we cover trades at −1% fair-value upside, at 49%, 2283 screens cheaper than that median.
Fair Value models
Bear50.41 SARFair Value 84.28 SARBull109.57 SAR
Price 56.60 SAR · Upside +48.9%
Model ⓘEach model values the company its own way (discounted cash flow, earnings, assets, dividends). The fair value above starts from their evidence-weighted blend, not from a single model. In cyclical trough or peak years, after dilution or a stock split it is adjusted afterwards, so it can sit above or below the models. Based on fiscal year 2025 figures (about 10 months old). Earnings retained since then (3.07 SAR per share) are deliberately not added.Bear ⓘBear = the cautious scenario: the same model computed with conservative anchors (lower growth, margins and valuation multiples). Together with Bull it frames a plausible valuation range, not a price target.BaseBull ⓘBull = the optimistic scenario: the same model computed with favourable anchors (higher growth, margins and valuation multiples). Together with Bear it frames a plausible valuation range, not a price target. If a model's bull case is above four times its base value, the table shows that limit with a > sign (like the overall Bull above): beyond it no assumption holds.Coverage ⓘCoverage = how well-backed THIS model's estimate is for this stock (0–100): how complete and reliable its input data are, and how well the model fits the company. The final Fair Value is an evidence-weighted blend, so better-evidenced models count more. Green ≥70, amber 50–69, grey below 50.
Growth Quality ⓘGrowth is valuable only when reinvestment earns attractive returns (Aswath Damodaran): sustainable growth depends on return on capital, reinvestment and efficiency. Basis: total company revenue over the periods shown on the cards (3Y/5Y/all years), not per share, so a merger can show up as a growth jump; per-share earnings growth is in the value-creation card.91/100
Revenue growth appears healthy and is supported by profitability and cash-flow quality.
Revenue growth 1 year
+9.3%
Revenue growth 3 years ⓘMeasures the company's TOTAL revenue from reported annual statements: compound average growth per year (CAGR) from the fiscal year 3, 5 or N years back to the most recent comparable fiscal year. Not per share: buybacks do not change this number, and a merger can appear as a growth jump. Per-share growth (which does include buybacks) is in the value-creation card.
+7.9%
Revenue growth 5 years ⓘMeasures the company's TOTAL revenue from reported annual statements: compound average growth per year (CAGR) from the fiscal year 3, 5 or N years back to the most recent comparable fiscal year. Not per share: buybacks do not change this number, and a merger can appear as a growth jump. Per-share growth (which does include buybacks) is in the value-creation card.
+9.9%
Start year 2020 (pandemic)
Revenue growth 7 years ⓘMeasures the company's TOTAL revenue from reported annual statements: compound average growth per year (CAGR) from the fiscal year 3, 5 or N years back to the most recent comparable fiscal year. Not per share: buybacks do not change this number, and a merger can appear as a growth jump. Per-share growth (which does include buybacks) is in the value-creation card.
+10.2%
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What shareholders gained per year (last 5 years) ⓘWhat the business itself delivers per year: earnings growth per share plus the dividend yield. This is what you get IF the market keeps valuing the stock the same way: it contains no assumption about the market changing its mind. Computed per share, so buybacks count and a merger does not pass as growth. For a company that pays no dividend it is pure earnings growth per share. Period: earnings growth per share as CAGR over the last 5 reported fiscal years (annual statements), plus the current dividend yield. The start value is the median of the three years around the start, so a single crisis year (a pandemic or a write-down) does not distort the rate.
+10.7%
Earnings growth per share plus dividend.
Earnings per share, growth per year+7.7%
Dividend (yield on the price)3.0%
Profit margin 2020 to 2025 ⓘOperating margin then vs now, from reported annual statements. A falling margin after a boom year is the classic peak-earnings signal: the growth rate then leans on an inflated base.28% → 30%
Growth Forecast
Little optimism in the price
The price assumes less growth than the company has delivered so far.
What the price assumes ⓘThis turns our valuation around: instead of asking what the share is worth, it asks what growth the current price requires. It uses the cash the company keeps after all spending (free cash flow), the same discount rate as our models, five years of growth, then slowing evenly to 2 % a year by year ten. Compared with the analysts' sales forecasts extended to the same five years (at least three analysts, for context only, it does not enter the Fair Value): within 3 percentage points counts as "in line" (amber), below that little optimism (green), above that a lot of optimism (red).
+6.1%
Yearly growth needed for the next five years to justify today's price.
What forecasts expect
n/a
No analyst forecast available.
After inflation (Saudi Arabia: IMF forecast 2.1% a year to 2030, 1.7% from 2016 to 2025) that is about +4.0% a year for the price.
Compare First Milling Company SJSC with another stock
Price, fair value, quality and upside side by side.
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Peer GroupⓘHow this stock ranks against its industry: the green marker is this stock, the band is the typical 25–75% peer range, and the tick is the median.Packaged Foods · 625 stocks
Beats the industry median on 10/13 measures
Overall it ranks above its industry peers.
Valuation
Quality Score66 · Top 25%
Fair Value upside+48.9% · Top 25%
Profitability
Return on equity (12 months)28.0% · Top 25%
Return on assets10.7% · Top 25%
Net margin (12 months)23.2% · Top 25%
Operating margin (12 months)28.7% · Top 25%
Growth and dividend
Revenue growth (quarter YoY)26.7% · Top 25%
Dividend yield (12 months)3.0% · Above median
Balance sheet
Debt / equity0.73× · Highest 25%
Valuation Multiplesvs Packaged Foods median · lower = cheaper
P/E (12 months)10.8× · Cheaper than median
P/B2.95× · book value is mostly goodwill ⓘGoodwill and other intangible assets are larger than the equity. The book value mainly reflects prices paid for past acquisitions, so we do not rank this P/B against the peer group.
P/S (12 months)2.50× · Priciest 25%
Price / free cash flow (fiscal year)12.1× · Cheaper than median
For bloggers, editors and developers: paste this into your site or blog (a “Custom HTML” block in WordPress), it shows the current fair value and links back here. Free, plain HTML, and welcome. Full data streams (CSV/JSON) at /developers.
Cite: Fair Value Calculator (2026). "First Milling Company SJSC Fair Value". https://www.fairvalue-calculator.com/stock/2283
Frequently asked questions
Is First Milling Company SJSC (2283) overvalued or undervalued?
As of Nov 6, 2026, our model estimates a fair value of 84.28 SAR versus a price of 56.60 SAR, about +49% upside (undervalued).
What is the fair value of 2283?
Our model-based fair value for First Milling Company SJSC is 84.28 SAR (as of Nov 6, 2026), built from audited fundamentals. The current price: 56.60 SAR.
What is the quality score of 2283?
First Milling Company SJSC has a Quality Score of 66/100. It measures business quality (profitability, growth, cash flow, balance-sheet strength, investment discipline, share issuance). Market factors such as price momentum and volatility do not enter the number; they are shown separately in the detail view.
What is the price target for First Milling Company SJSC (2283)?
Our model-based price target is the fair value of 84.28 SAR (as of Nov 6, 2026) from 24 valuation models. Cautious scenario 50.41 SAR, optimistic scenario 109.57 SAR. It is a calculation from audited fundamentals, not an analyst target.
What is the First Milling Company SJSC stock forecast for 2026?
Our models put fair value at 84.28 SAR, about +49% upside versus a price of 56.60 SAR (undervalued). Cautious scenario 50.41 SAR, optimistic scenario 109.57 SAR. The calculation is refreshed regularly with new filings.
What is the revenue of First Milling Company SJSC (2283)?
First Milling Company SJSC reported trailing-twelve-month revenue of about 1.3B SAR (latest available figure, as of Nov 6, 2026).
Does First Milling Company SJSC pay a dividend?
First Milling Company SJSC currently shows a dividend yield of 2.95% relative to its recent price (as of Nov 6, 2026).
How much is the dividend of First Milling Company SJSC (2283) and when is the ex-dividend date?
First Milling Company SJSC pays a dividend of 1.67 SAR per share a year, a dividend yield of 3.0%. The last ex-dividend date was Aug 31, 2026. The payout ratio is 31.8% of earnings. Free cash flow covers the dividend 2.81 times. Our assessment: Well covered. A low payout and the dividend is fully funded by free cash flow, a comfortable, sustainable dividend.
What growth is priced into First Milling Company SJSC (2283)?
For today's price to be fair in a discounted-cash-flow model, First Milling Company SJSC would have to grow free cash flow by +6.1 % per year for five years (discount rate 10.3 %, then slowing evenly to 2 % perpetual growth by year ten). Over the last 5 years revenue grew +9.9 % per year. As of Nov 6, 2026.
What discount rate (WACC) does the fair value of 2283 use?
Our models discount First Milling Company SJSC at 10.3 %: a base by market capitalisation (small), damped by beta 0.11, country premium for Saudi Arabia. The same rate applies in all 26 models.
What is a reverse DCF?
A reverse DCF turns the usual calculation around. Instead of deriving a value from assumptions, it takes today's price as given and asks: what free-cash-flow growth would a company have to deliver for exactly this price to be fair? The result is not a forecast but the expectation already priced in. For First Milling Company SJSC that is +6.1 % per year for five years, then slowing evenly to 2 % by year ten, using the same discount rate (10.3 %) and the same formula as our fair value.
How much growth has First Milling Company SJSC (2283) delivered so far?
Over the past 5 years revenue at First Milling Company SJSC grew +9.9 % a year. The price currently implies free-cash-flow growth of +6.1 % per year. Comparing the two shows how much confidence is in the price: if it demands more than has been delivered, the business has to accelerate for the maths to work.
How fast is the sector of First Milling Company SJSC (2283) growing?
The median revenue growth in the sector is +3.6 % a year. That is the yardstick for the growth priced into First Milling Company SJSC (+6.1 % per year): it shows whether the expectation is within the usual range or beyond it.
What is the free cash flow yield of First Milling Company SJSC (2283)?
The free-cash-flow yield on the price is 8.27 %: that much free cash flow First Milling Company SJSC produces per unit of market value. When it exceeds the discount rate of our models (10.3 %), the business already earns more than its cost of capital demands, and the price needs little additional growth.
What is the intrinsic value of First Milling Company SJSC (2283)?
Intrinsic value and fair value mean the same thing: what the business is worth on its numbers, independent of the share price. For First Milling Company SJSC it is 84.28 SAR per share (as of Nov 6, 2026), against a price of 56.60 SAR. It is the blended result of 24 valuation models in 7 families (DCF Models, Earnings-Based, Dividend Discount, Multiples, Growth DCF, Economic Profit, Growth Earnings).
Is First Milling Company SJSC stock overvalued or undervalued in 2026?
As of Nov 6, 2026, 2283 trades below its calculated fair value: price 56.60 SAR, fair value 84.28 SAR, a gap of about +49% (undervalued). The calculation is refreshed with each new quarterly report, so the verdict can change during the year.
Is fair value the same as the market price of 2283?
No. The price is what the market pays today (56.60 SAR); the fair value is what the company's own numbers justify (84.28 SAR). For First Milling Company SJSC the two are 27.68 SAR per share apart. That gap is exactly why we show both numbers side by side.
How much is First Milling Company SJSC worth?
The market values First Milling Company SJSC at about 3.1B SAR (market capitalisation, as of Nov 6, 2026). Per share that is 56.60 SAR; our models calculate a fair value of 84.28 SAR per share.
What do the bullish and bearish scenarios say about 2283?
Our models span a range for First Milling Company SJSC: cautious scenario 50.41 SAR, base 84.28 SAR, optimistic 109.57 SAR per share (as of Nov 6, 2026, price 56.60 SAR). The range comes from different growth and margin assumptions, not from analyst opinions.
What is the P/E ratio of 2283?
First Milling Company SJSC trades at a price-to-earnings ratio of 10.8 (as of Nov 6, 2026). A P/E on its own says little: it compares the price with ONE year of profit, while our fair value of 84.28 SAR is built from several models across several years. Other multiples: P/B 3.0, P/S 2.5, EV/EBITDA 9.3.
How solid is the balance sheet of First Milling Company SJSC (2283)?
Balance-sheet figures for First Milling Company SJSC (as of Nov 6, 2026): return on equity 28.0%, debt of 0.73 per unit of equity. They feed the Quality Score of 66/100, which measures business quality independently of the share price.
How far is 2283 from its 52-week high?
First Milling Company SJSC trades at 56.60 SAR, about 1% below its 52-week high of 57.45 SAR and 27% above the low of 44.56 SAR (as of Nov 8, 2026). Distance from the high says nothing about value: that is what the fair value of 84.28 SAR is for.
Which stocks are comparable to First Milling Company SJSC?
From the same area (Consumer Defensive) we also value Nestlé S.A, Danone S.A, Foshan Haitian Flavouring and Food Company, The Kraft Heinz Company, among others. Each of them has its own fair-value calculation on this site using the same models, so the comparison is like for like.
Is First Milling Company SJSC stock attractive at the current price?
The data as of Nov 6, 2026: price 56.60 SAR, calculated fair value 84.28 SAR (+49%), Quality Score 66/100, from 24 models. Whether that fits your horizon and risk tolerance is your call. We provide the calculation, not investment advice.
How is the fair value of 2283 calculated?
We run First Milling Company SJSC through 24 models from 7 families: DCF Models, Earnings-Based, Dividend Discount, Multiples, Growth DCF, Economic Profit, Growth Earnings. Every model gets the same audited fundamentals; the fair value of 84.28 SAR builds on their evidence-weighted average, with the spread shown as a cautious and an optimistic scenario.
Is it still worth investing in stocks now?
The global stock market currently sits 13.3% above its aggregate fair value. First Milling Company SJSC currently trades 33% below its own fair value, and the market average says nothing about that. An expensive market is no reason to stay out and no reason to buy everything at once: keep a broad savings plan running, buy single stocks only with money you can do without, and hold part of your money liquid while the market is high. The full picture including sectors is on is it worth investing now.
What is the share price of First Milling Company SJSC (2283)?
The closing price on Nov 8, 2026 was 56.60 SAR. Our model-based fair value is 84.28 SAR, about +49% upside (undervalued). We carry closing prices from our data provider, not a live tick.
What should I pay attention to with First Milling Company SJSC right now?
Solid quality (66/100) at a price below fair value, the discount is the argument here, not the business quality. A fairly wide model range (50.41 SAR to 109.57 SAR) leaves room in how you read the outcome.
Key figures of First Milling Company SJSC
How large is the market capitalisation of First Milling Company SJSC (2283)?
The market capitalisation of First Milling Company SJSC is 3.1B SAR (≈ $838M). The stock-market value of the whole company: share price times number of shares. It is what the market asks for the entire business today.
What is the P/S ratio of First Milling Company SJSC (2283)?
The price-to-sales ratio of First Milling Company SJSC is 2.50 (last twelve months). Price to sales: market value relative to yearly revenue. Useful when profit is thin or distorted.
What are the earnings per share of First Milling Company SJSC (2283)?
Earnings per share at First Milling Company SJSC are 5.25 SAR (price ÷ EPS = P/E 10.8). Earnings per share over the last twelve months: total profit spread across every single share.
What is the dividend yield of First Milling Company SJSC (2283)?
The dividend yield of First Milling Company SJSC is 3.0% (payout 31.8%). Yearly dividend relative to the share price. 3% pays 3 per 100 invested. Below: how much of profit is used for it.
What is the net margin of First Milling Company SJSC (2283)?
The net margin of First Milling Company SJSC is 23.2% (last twelve months). How much of every unit of revenue ends up as profit. 10% means 10 cents of profit per dollar of sales.
What is the return on equity of First Milling Company SJSC (2283)?
The return on equity (ROE) of First Milling Company SJSC is 28.0% (last twelve months). Profit relative to shareholders' equity, how efficiently the company works with its owners' money.
What is the EBIT return on assets of First Milling Company SJSC (2283)?
On an EBIT basis the return on assets of First Milling Company SJSC is 13.3% (avg 5y). Operating profit (EBIT) relative to everything the company owns, as a multi-year average. It describes the business model rather than one good or bad year.
What is the operating margin of First Milling Company SJSC (2283)?
The operating margin of First Milling Company SJSC is 28.7% (last twelve months). Profit from the core business (before interest and taxes) relative to revenue.
How fast is revenue growing at First Milling Company SJSC (2283)?
Revenue at First Milling Company SJSC is growing +26.7% versus a year earlier (3y avg +7.9%). How much revenue grew versus a year earlier (YoY). The 3-year average next to it puts the single year in context.
How fast are earnings growing at First Milling Company SJSC (2283)?
Earnings per share at First Milling Company SJSC are growing +28.0% versus a year earlier. How much earnings per share grew versus a year earlier.
How much net debt does First Milling Company SJSC (2283) carry?
The net debt of First Milling Company SJSC is 1.2B SAR (fiscal year 2025, ≈ 4.5 yrs of FCF). Debt minus cash on hand. The note shows how many years of free cash flow could in theory pay it off.
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Broad data
Nov 6, 2026