The First Milling Company (2283) Fair Value & Analysis
Consumer Defensive · SA · Market cap 2.8B SAR
Fair value as of: Jul 31, 2026
From 26 valuation models · updated 10 days ago
Share price −6.2% over the past month.
A solid business, screening 62% undervalued on our models.
What matters now
- Solid quality (66/100) at a price below fair value, the discount is the argument here, not the business quality.
- A fairly wide model range (47.32 SAR to 109.57 SAR) leaves room in how you read the outcome.
Price vs Fair Value (3 years)
White line = price, green steps = our fair value per fiscal year, dashed = 300-day average. As of Jul 31, 2026.
How to read this chart
37‑month range 44.56 SAR – 87.56 SAR · fair‑value band 47.32 SAR – 109.57 SAR · the 51.10 SAR price screens below the 82.89 SAR fair value. Dashed = 300-day average. As of Jul 31, 2026.
Analysis
The First Milling Company (2283) currently trades at 51.10 SAR, while our model-based Fair Value estimate is 82.89 SAR, implying the stock looks roughly 62.2% undervalued today. The Quality Score stands at 66/100 (solid quality), in the Consumer Defensive sector. Bull case: trading below our estimate, it may offer upside if the fundamentals hold. Bear case: a low price can be a value trap when quality is weak or the data is thin (evidence: high), always confirm before acting.
Over the trailing twelve months, The First Milling Company generated revenue of 1.2B SAR at a net margin of 23.2%. Revenue grew 17.3% year over year. It earns a return on equity of 19.0%. Net debt stands at 1.2B SAR. Fundamentals as of Jul 31, 2026
Our scenario range runs from 47.32 SAR (bear case) to 109.57 SAR (bull case); at 51.10 SAR, the current price sits within that range. Bear and bull are the same models run on conservative and optimistic assumptions (margins, growth, valuation multiples), so a plausible valuation range, not a price target. The share trades about 10% below its 52-week high and 17% above its 52-week low, currently below its 200-day average. For context, the median of 10 Consumer Defensive peers we cover trades at -3% fair-value upside, at 62%, 2283 screens cheaper than that median.
Fair Value models
Each model estimates fair value its own way; the Fair Value above is the evidence-weighted blend. Evidence (0–100) measures how completely this model’s inputs are available: well-fed models carry more weight in the blend. The spread across models is intentional, each one stresses a different value driver; dividend models, for instance, come out structurally low when payout is small.
All 26 models by family
Widest divergence: Growth Earnings (84.28 SAR) versus Asset-Based (12.89 SAR). Highest evidence: Growth DCF (80).
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Key figures & financial health
More key figures
Figures from reported company fundamentals · as of Jul 31, 2026. TTM = trailing twelve months.
Quality Score breakdown
Of which business quality 62 · Market factors (momentum, volatility) 56
Non-valuation factor families (profitability, growth, cashflow, financial strength, momentum …), each academically grounded. Valuation itself sits in the Fair Value and is deliberately excluded here to avoid double-counting.
About the company
The First Milling Company produces and sells flour products in the Kingdom of Saudi Arabia. It provides flour, bran, semolina, specialty flour, peeled and crushed wheat under First Mills and Aloula brand name. In addition, it offers complete crushed feed, livestock fattener, lamb, horse, pigeon, dairy cattle, poultry feed pellet under the Naffa'a brand name.
Full company description
The First Milling Company produces and sells flour products in the Kingdom of Saudi Arabia. It provides flour, bran, semolina, specialty flour, peeled and crushed wheat under First Mills and Aloula brand name. In addition, it offers complete crushed feed, livestock fattener, lamb, horse, pigeon, dairy cattle, poultry feed pellet under the Naffa'a brand name. The First Milling Company was founded in 1972 and is based in Jeddah, Saudi Arabia.
Company description, as reported by the company or data provider.
Revenue & earnings trend
FY2021 – FY2025 · reported fiscal years
The First Milling Company reported revenue of 1.1B SAR in FY2025 versus 801M SAR in FY2021, a compound +9.4%/yr. Reported net income was 277M SAR in FY2025, compounding +8.7%/yr from FY2021.
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Peer Group
Packaged Foods · 649 stocks
How this stock ranks against its industry: the green marker is this stock, the band is the typical 25–75% peer range, and the tick is the median.
Valuation Multiples vs Packaged Foods median · lower = cheaper
Snowflake
Five quick dimensions, each 0 to 100: VALUE (fair-value potential), FUTURE (revenue growth), PAST (return on equity), HEALTH (low debt), DIVIDEND (yield). Green = this stock, grey = typical sector peer.
Values & ESG
Does this company touch areas you may want to avoid? The classification is inferred from sector and industry.
ESG scores are not available for this stock yet. Values and ESG data are contextual and can differ between providers.
Similar stocks
10 more Packaged Foods stocks, each showing price versus our Fair Value estimate (as of Jul 31, 2026).
| Stock | Price | Fair Value | vs Fair Value |
|---|---|---|---|
| Nestlé India Limited NESTLEIND | ₹1,427 | ₹362.37 | -75% |
| Britannia Industries Limited BRITANNIA | ₹5,413 | ₹1,870 | -65% |
| Tata Consumer Products Limited TATACONSUM | ₹1,089 | ₹327.27 | -70% |
| PT Indofood CBP Sukses Makmur Tbk ICBP | 6,650 IDR | 15,757 IDR | +137% |
| Samyang Foods Co 003230 | 1,139,000 KRW | 1,010,543 KRW | -11% |
| Patanjali Foods Limited PATANJALI | ₹413.80 | ₹157.04 | -62% |
| Vietnam Dairy Products Joint Stock Company VNM | 58,500 VND | 68,259 VND | +17% |
| PT Mayora Indah Tbk, MYOR | 1,750 IDR | 2,699 IDR | +54% |
| PT Cisarua Mountain Dairy Tbk CMRY | 4,490 IDR | 4,355 IDR | -3% |
| Nongshim Co 004370 | 348,500 KRW | 530,619 KRW | +52% |
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How we calculate Fair Value
Each company is valued through a stack of independent intrinsic-value models (DCF variants, residual-income, multiples and more), blended into one family-balanced consensus and weighted by how much trustworthy data backs it. A separate quality layer scores the fundamentals. Every input is real reported data, nothing guessed.
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