Alpha Cognition Inc (ACOG) fair value: what the stock is really worth
As of Nov 6, 2026: fair value (intrinsic value) of Alpha Cognition Inc stock $2.41, price $8.29, that is 70.9% below the price, quality 40 out of 100. Rating: strongly overvalued. Calculated from audited financials with one of our 26 valuation models and 37 quality factors, updated daily.
69 individual criteria per stock, every one traceableSee the method →
Price vs Fair Value
White line = price, green steps = our fair value per fiscal year. As of Nov 8, 2026.
How to read this chart
24‑month range $3.75 – $11.24 · fair‑value band $1.59 – $3.02 · the $8.29 price screens above the $2.41 fair value. Green steps = our fair value per fiscal year (point-in-time, no hindsight). As of Nov 8, 2026.
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Alpha Cognition Inc., a biopharmaceutical company, engages in the development of treatments for patients suffering from neurodegenerative diseases in the United States and Canada. The company's commercial development program includes ZUNVEYL oral tablet formulation for treating Alzheimer's disease.
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Its pre-clinical development programs comprise ZUNVEYL in combination with memantine for the treatment of moderate-to-severe Alzheimer's disease; ALPHA-1062 sublingual formulation; ALPHA-1062 intranasal formulation for the treatment of cognitive impairment with mild traumatic brain injury; and ALPHA-0602, ALPHA-0702, and ALPHA-0802 programs for the treatment of neurodegenerative diseases, including amyotrophic lateral sclerosis disease and spinal muscular atrophy.
Alpha Cognition Inc. was founded in 2000 and is headquartered in Grapevine, Texas.
Stock analysis
Alpha Cognition Inc (ACOG) currently trades at $8.29, while our model-based Fair Value estimate is $2.41, 71% below the price, so the stock looks overvalued today.
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Valuation
How firm this estimate is: it rests on 1 models at a data quality of 96/100, which puts the data coverage at low.
Scenario range: $1.59 (bear) to $3.02 (bull), the price of $8.29 sits above it. Bear and bull are the same models on cautious and optimistic assumptions, a range, not a price target.
Quality & growth
The Quality Score stands at 40/100 (below-average quality), in the Healthcare sector.
Weak Growth: Revenue growth is weak, negative or inconsistent.
Alpha Cognition Inc reported revenue of $10.2M in FY2025 versus $0 in FY2021. Reported net income was −$20.7M in FY2025.
Key figures
Market cap $181M Micro · P/S ratio 12.7 · EPS (TTM) $−1.41 · Return on equity −49.5% · Return on assets (EBIT) −198% (5-year average) · Operating margin −127% · Revenue (TTM) $15.3M · Revenue growth (YoY) +268%.
Competitive moat
Our AI-assisted moat analysis scores the competitive advantage at 8 out of 100 (low confidence).
What moves the price
The share trades about 15% below its 52-week high and 84% above its 52-week low, currently above its 200-day average.
For context, the median of 10 Healthcare peers we cover trades at 10% fair-value upside, at −71%, ACOG screens richer than that median.
Fair Value models
Bear$1.59Fair Value $2.41Bull$3.02
Price $8.29 · Downside -70.9%
Model ⓘEach model values the company its own way (discounted cash flow, earnings, assets, dividends). The fair value above starts from their evidence-weighted blend, not from a single model. In cyclical trough or peak years, after dilution or a stock split it is adjusted afterwards, so it can sit above or below the models.Bear ⓘBear = the cautious scenario: the same model computed with conservative anchors (lower growth, margins and valuation multiples). Together with Bull it frames a plausible valuation range, not a price target.BaseBull ⓘBull = the optimistic scenario: the same model computed with favourable anchors (higher growth, margins and valuation multiples). Together with Bear it frames a plausible valuation range, not a price target. If a model's bull case is above four times its base value, the table shows that limit with a > sign (like the overall Bull above): beyond it no assumption holds.Coverage ⓘCoverage = how well-backed THIS model's estimate is for this stock (0–100): how complete and reliable its input data are, and how well the model fits the company. The final Fair Value is an evidence-weighted blend, so better-evidenced models count more. Green ≥70, amber 50–69, grey below 50.
Best data coverage
NCAV (Graham)$1.87$2.84$3.5552
All 1 models by family
Asset-Based
NCAV (Graham)$1.87$2.84$3.5552
The fair value above starts from this blend and is adjusted for dilution from new shares.
In the last 6 months, 2 officers or directors bought shares worth $116,360, most recently on Aug 21, 2026. Buying cluster
BuyOpaleye Management Inc.10% owner25× since Feb 20, 2026: 1,198,884 shares, avg. $6.86$8.2MOct 23, 2026
BuyRobert James WillsDirector10,000 shares at $9.62$96,200Aug 21, 2026
BuyLauren D'AngeloChief Operating Officer3,500 shares at $5.76$20,160May 19, 2026
Sales are often planned (taxes, diversification, 10b5-1 plans). Purchases with their own money are seen as the stronger sign. For information only: not part of the quality score or Fair Value.
Growth Quality ⓘGrowth is valuable only when reinvestment earns attractive returns (Aswath Damodaran): sustainable growth depends on return on capital, reinvestment and efficiency. Basis: total company revenue over the periods shown on the cards (3Y/5Y/all years), not per share, so a merger can show up as a growth jump; per-share earnings growth is in the value-creation card.0/100
Revenue growth is weak, negative or inconsistent.
What shareholders gained per year ⓘWe only publish this rate when it is defensible. Reason: fiscal 2025 is a loss year, no rate is defined from a loss
Price, fair value, quality and upside side by side.
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Peer GroupⓘHow this stock ranks against its industry: the green marker is this stock, the band is the typical 25–75% peer range, and the tick is the median.Biotechnology · 558 stocks
Beats the industry median on 1/8 measures
Overall it trails its industry peers.
Valuation
Quality Score40 · Below median
Fair Value upside−70.9% · Below median
Profitability
Return on assets−25.9% · Below median
Net margin (12 months)−137.7% · Bottom 25%
Operating margin (12 months)−127.3% · Bottom 25%
Growth and dividend
Revenue growth (quarter YoY)267.6% · Top 25%
Valuation Multiplesvs Biotechnology median · lower = cheaper
P/B2.89× · Pricier than median
P/S (12 months)11.83× · Pricier than median
Strength profile in five axes (Snowflake)
This stockSector peers
VALUE (fair-value potential)0· sector 0
FUTURE (revenue growth)100· sector 0
PAST (return on equity)0· sector 0
HEALTH (low debt)0· sector 97
DIVIDEND (yield)0· sector 22
VALUE 0: the price sits above our fair-value range.
For bloggers, editors and developers: paste this into your site or blog (a “Custom HTML” block in WordPress), it shows the current fair value and links back here. Free, plain HTML, and welcome. Full data streams (CSV/JSON) at /developers.
Is Alpha Cognition Inc (ACOG) overvalued or undervalued?
As of Nov 8, 2026, our model estimates a fair value of $2.41 versus a price of $8.29, about 71% lower (overvalued).
What is the fair value of ACOG?
Our model-based fair value for Alpha Cognition Inc is $2.41 (as of Nov 8, 2026), built from audited fundamentals. The current price: $8.29.
What is the quality score of ACOG?
Alpha Cognition Inc has a Quality Score of 40/100. It measures business quality (profitability, growth, cash flow, balance-sheet strength, investment discipline, share issuance). Market factors such as price momentum and volatility do not enter the number; they are shown separately in the detail view.
What is the price target for Alpha Cognition Inc (ACOG)?
Our model-based price target is the fair value of $2.41 (as of Nov 8, 2026) from 1 valuation models. Cautious scenario $1.59, optimistic scenario $3.02. It is a calculation from audited fundamentals, not an analyst target.
What is the Alpha Cognition Inc stock forecast for 2026?
Our models put fair value at $2.41, about 71% lower versus a price of $8.29 (overvalued). Cautious scenario $1.59, optimistic scenario $3.02. The calculation is refreshed regularly with new filings.
What is the revenue of Alpha Cognition Inc (ACOG)?
Alpha Cognition Inc reported trailing-twelve-month revenue of about $15.3M (latest available figure, as of Nov 8, 2026).
What is the intrinsic value of Alpha Cognition Inc (ACOG)?
Intrinsic value and fair value mean the same thing: what the business is worth on its numbers, independent of the share price. For Alpha Cognition Inc it is $2.41 per share (as of Nov 8, 2026), against a price of $8.29. It is the blended result of 1 valuation models in 1 family (Asset-Based).
Is Alpha Cognition Inc stock overvalued or undervalued in 2026?
As of Nov 8, 2026, ACOG trades above its calculated fair value: price $8.29, fair value $2.41, a gap of about −71% (overvalued). The calculation is refreshed with each new quarterly report, so the verdict can change during the year.
Is fair value the same as the market price of ACOG?
No. The price is what the market pays today ($8.29); the fair value is what the company's own numbers justify ($2.41). For Alpha Cognition Inc the two are $5.88 per share apart. That gap is exactly why we show both numbers side by side.
How much is Alpha Cognition Inc worth?
The market values Alpha Cognition Inc at about $181M (market capitalisation, as of Nov 8, 2026). Per share that is $8.29; our models calculate a fair value of $2.41 per share.
What do the bullish and bearish scenarios say about ACOG?
Our models span a range for Alpha Cognition Inc: cautious scenario $1.59, base $2.41, optimistic $3.02 per share (as of Nov 8, 2026, price $8.29). The range comes from different growth and margin assumptions, not from analyst opinions.
How solid is the balance sheet of Alpha Cognition Inc (ACOG)?
Balance-sheet figures for Alpha Cognition Inc (as of Nov 8, 2026): return on equity −49.5%. They feed the Quality Score of 40/100, which measures business quality independently of the share price.
How far is ACOG from its 52-week high?
Alpha Cognition Inc trades at $8.29, about 15% below its 52-week high of $9.75 and 84% above the low of $4.50 (as of Nov 6, 2026). Distance from the high says nothing about value: that is what the fair value of $2.41 is for.
Which stocks are comparable to Alpha Cognition Inc?
From the same area (Healthcare) we also value Vertex Pharmaceuticals Incorporated, Regeneron Pharmaceuticals, Inc, CSL Limited, argenx SE, among others. Each of them has its own fair-value calculation on this site using the same models, so the comparison is like for like.
Is Alpha Cognition Inc stock attractive at the current price?
The data as of Nov 8, 2026: price $8.29, calculated fair value $2.41 (−71%), Quality Score 40/100, from 1 models. Whether that fits your horizon and risk tolerance is your call. We provide the calculation, not investment advice.
How is the fair value of ACOG calculated?
We run Alpha Cognition Inc through 1 models from 1 family: Asset-Based. Every model gets the same audited fundamentals; the fair value of $2.41 builds on their evidence-weighted average, with the spread shown as a cautious and an optimistic scenario.
Is it still worth investing in stocks now?
The global stock market currently sits 13.3% above its aggregate fair value. Alpha Cognition Inc itself currently trades above fair value. An expensive market is no reason to stay out and no reason to buy everything at once: keep a broad savings plan running, buy single stocks only with money you can do without, and hold part of your money liquid while the market is high. The full picture including sectors is on is it worth investing now.
What is the share price of Alpha Cognition Inc (ACOG)?
The closing price on Nov 6, 2026 was $8.29. Our model-based fair value is $2.41, about 71% lower (overvalued). We carry closing prices from our data provider, not a live tick.
What should I pay attention to with Alpha Cognition Inc right now?
The price sits above even our optimistic bull case ($3.02). The favourable scenario is already priced in. Weak quality (40/100) and above fair value at the same time, the margin of safety is missing on both counts. The large gap to fair value rests on thin data (low evidence): fewer applicable models and a shorter history. Read it with extra caution. A fairly wide model range ($1.59 to $3.02) leaves room in how you read the outcome.
Key figures of Alpha Cognition Inc
How large is the market capitalisation of Alpha Cognition Inc (ACOG)?
The market capitalisation of Alpha Cognition Inc is $181M. The stock-market value of the whole company: share price times number of shares. It is what the market asks for the entire business today.
What is the P/S ratio of Alpha Cognition Inc (ACOG)?
The price-to-sales ratio of Alpha Cognition Inc is 12.7 (last twelve months). Price to sales: market value relative to yearly revenue. Useful when profit is thin or distorted.
What are the earnings per share of Alpha Cognition Inc (ACOG)?
Earnings per share at Alpha Cognition Inc are $−1.41. Earnings per share over the last twelve months: total profit spread across every single share.
What is the return on equity of Alpha Cognition Inc (ACOG)?
The return on equity (ROE) of Alpha Cognition Inc is −49.5% (last twelve months). Profit relative to shareholders' equity, how efficiently the company works with its owners' money.
What is the EBIT return on assets of Alpha Cognition Inc (ACOG)?
On an EBIT basis the return on assets of Alpha Cognition Inc is −198% (avg 5y). Operating profit (EBIT) relative to everything the company owns, as a multi-year average. It describes the business model rather than one good or bad year.
What is the operating margin of Alpha Cognition Inc (ACOG)?
The operating margin of Alpha Cognition Inc is −127% (last twelve months). Profit from the core business (before interest and taxes) relative to revenue.
How fast is revenue growing at Alpha Cognition Inc (ACOG)?
Revenue at Alpha Cognition Inc is growing +268% versus a year earlier. How much revenue grew versus a year earlier (YoY). The 3-year average next to it puts the single year in context.
How much free cash flow does Alpha Cognition Inc (ACOG) generate?
The free cash flow of Alpha Cognition Inc is −$20.7M (fiscal year 2025). The cash truly left after running and investing in the business, this is what pays dividends and buybacks.
How much net cash does Alpha Cognition Inc (ACOG) hold?
Alpha Cognition Inc holds more cash than debt, $66.1M net (fiscal year 2025). The company holds more cash than debt, a safety cushion.
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Thin data
Nov 8, 2026
