Aflac Incorporated (AFL) fair value: what the stock is really worth
As of Nov 5, 2026: fair value (intrinsic value) of Aflac Incorporated stock $67.30, price $126, that is 46.7% below the price, quality 64 out of 100. Rating: strongly overvalued. Calculated from audited financials with 6 of our 26 valuation models and 37 quality factors, updated daily.
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Price vs Fair Value
White line = price, green steps = our fair value per fiscal year. As of Nov 5, 2026.
How to read this chart
60‑month range $45.86 – $128.90 · fair‑value band $56.61 – $89.25 · the $126.24 price screens above the $67.30 fair value. Green steps = our fair value per fiscal year (point-in-time, no hindsight). As of Nov 5, 2026.
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Aflac Incorporated, through its subsidiaries, provides supplemental health and life insurance products.
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It operates in two segments, Aflac Japan and Aflac U.S. The Aflac Japan segment offers cancer, medical, nursing care, whole life, and GIFT insurance products, as well as WAYS and child endowment, and Tsumitasu insurance products in Japan.
Its Aflac U.S. segment provides accident, disability, cancer, critical illness, hospital indemnity, dental, vision, and life insurance products in the United States.
The company also provides hearing, final expense, pet, Medicare supplement, supplemental dental and vision, short-term disability, and absence management insurance products, as well as cafeteria plans.
It sells its products to individuals, families, and business owners through individual, independent corporate, and affiliated corporate agencies; banks; independent associates/career agents; and brokers. Aflac Incorporated was founded in 1955 and is headquartered in Columbus, Georgia.
Stock analysis
Aflac Incorporated (AFL) currently trades at $126.24, while our model-based Fair Value estimate is $67.30, 47% below the price, so the stock looks overvalued today.
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Valuation
Bull case: the Economic Profit group reads highest at a median of $67.30 per share, and 0 of the 6 models we run sit above the $126.24 price.
Bear case: the Asset-Based group reads lowest at $26.99, and 6 of the 6 models stay below the price. Data coverage for this calculation is high.
Scenario range: $56.61 (bear) to $89.25 (bull), the price of $126.24 sits above it. Bear and bull are the same models on cautious and optimistic assumptions, a range, not a price target.
Quality & growth
The Quality Score stands at 64/100 (solid quality), in the Financial Services sector.
Weak Growth: Revenue is shrinking: the last year, the last three and the last five years are all negative.
Aflac Incorporated reported revenue of $17.4B in FY2025 versus $22.1B in FY2021, a compound −5.8%/yr. Reported net income was $3.6B in FY2025, compounding −4.2%/yr from FY2021.
Key figures
Market cap $63.8B Large · P/E ratio 13.6 · P/S ratio 3.53 · EPS (TTM) $9.30 · Dividend yield 1.9% · Net margin 26.9% · Return on equity 16.9% · Return on assets (EBIT) 4.1%.
Competitive moat
Our AI-assisted moat analysis scores the competitive advantage at 70 out of 100 (medium confidence).
What moves the price
The share trades about 2% below its 52-week high and 20% above its 52-week low, currently above its 200-day average.
For context, the median of 10 Financial Services peers we cover trades at −36% fair-value upside, at −47%, AFL screens richer than that median.
Fair Value models
Bear$56.61Fair Value $67.30Bull$89.25
Price $126.24 · Downside -46.7%
Model ⓘEach model values the company its own way (discounted cash flow, earnings, assets, dividends). The fair value above starts from their evidence-weighted blend, not from a single model. In cyclical trough or peak years, after dilution or a stock split it is adjusted afterwards, so it can sit above or below the models. Based on fiscal year 2025 figures (about 10 months old). Earnings retained since then ($5.88 per share) are deliberately not added.Bear ⓘBear = the cautious scenario: the same model computed with conservative anchors (lower growth, margins and valuation multiples). Together with Bull it frames a plausible valuation range, not a price target.BaseBull ⓘBull = the optimistic scenario: the same model computed with favourable anchors (higher growth, margins and valuation multiples). Together with Bear it frames a plausible valuation range, not a price target. If a model's bull case is above four times its base value, the table shows that limit with a > sign (like the overall Bull above): beyond it no assumption holds.Coverage ⓘCoverage = how well-backed THIS model's estimate is for this stock (0–100): how complete and reliable its input data are, and how well the model fits the company. The final Fair Value is an evidence-weighted blend, so better-evidenced models count more. Green ≥70, amber 50–69, grey below 50.
In the last 6 months, 5 officers or directors sold shares worth $4.3M and none bought.
SaleJapan Post Holdings Co., Ltd.10% owner100× since Mar 3, 2026: 2,165,671 shares, avg. $114.92$248.9MOct 15, 202610b5-1 plan
SaleMasatoshi KoidePres. and Rep. Director, ALIJ2× since Mar 11, 2026: 28,632 shares, avg. $113.66$3.3MSep 16, 2026
SaleJoseph L MoskowitzDirector6× since Nov 7, 2025: 15,956 shares, avg. $116.18$1.9MAug 10, 2026
SaleSteven Kent BeaverEVP, CFO Aflac Japan4× since Dec 5, 2025: 21,839 shares, avg. $112.95$2.5MMay 22, 2026
SaleThomas J KennyDirector1,740 shares at $116.57$202,832May 15, 2026
SaleArthur Reginald CollinsDirector2,300 shares at $116.55$268,065May 14, 2026
SaleMiwako HosodaDirector243 shares at $114.50$27,824May 6, 202610b5-1 plan
SaleCharles D Lake IIChairman & Rep. Director, ALIJ3× since Mar 11, 2026: 27,090 shares, avg. $110.28$3.0MMay 5, 2026
SaleMax BrodenSr. EVP, CFO13,000 shares at $117.67$1.5MFeb 6, 2026
SaleAudrey B TillmanSr. Executive Vice President2× since Nov 14, 2025: 19,314 shares, avg. $112.55$2.2MNov 18, 2025
Plus 1 more entries from the last 12 months.
Plus 4 other filings such as grants, option exercises or tax withholding. They are not market purchases or sales.
Sales are often planned (taxes, diversification, 10b5-1 plans). Purchases with their own money are seen as the stronger sign. For information only: not part of the quality score or Fair Value.
Growth Quality ⓘGrowth is valuable only when reinvestment earns attractive returns (Aswath Damodaran): sustainable growth depends on return on capital, reinvestment and efficiency. Basis: total company revenue over the periods shown on the cards (3Y/5Y/all years), not per share, so a merger can show up as a growth jump; per-share earnings growth is in the value-creation card.40/100
Revenue is shrinking: the last year, the last three and the last five years are all negative.
Revenue growth 1 year
−8.8%
Revenue growth 3 years ⓘMeasures the company's TOTAL revenue from reported annual statements: compound average growth per year (CAGR) from the fiscal year 3, 5 or N years back to the most recent comparable fiscal year. Not per share: buybacks do not change this number, and a merger can appear as a growth jump. Per-share growth (which does include buybacks) is in the value-creation card.
−3.1%
Revenue growth 5 years ⓘMeasures the company's TOTAL revenue from reported annual statements: compound average growth per year (CAGR) from the fiscal year 3, 5 or N years back to the most recent comparable fiscal year. Not per share: buybacks do not change this number, and a merger can appear as a growth jump. Per-share growth (which does include buybacks) is in the value-creation card.
−4.7%
Start year 2020 (pandemic). Over 10 years: −1.8% a year
Revenue growth 40 years ⓘMeasures the company's TOTAL revenue from reported annual statements: compound average growth per year (CAGR) from the fiscal year 3, 5 or N years back to the most recent comparable fiscal year. Not per share: buybacks do not change this number, and a merger can appear as a growth jump. Per-share growth (which does include buybacks) is in the value-creation card.
+7.5%
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What shareholders gained per year (last 5 years) ⓘWhat the business itself delivers per year: earnings growth per share plus the dividend yield. This is what you get IF the market keeps valuing the stock the same way: it contains no assumption about the market changing its mind. Computed per share, so buybacks count and a merger does not pass as growth. For a company that pays no dividend it is pure earnings growth per share. Period: earnings growth per share as CAGR over the last 5 reported fiscal years (annual statements), plus the current dividend yield. The start value is the median of the three years around the start, so a single crisis year (a pandemic or a write-down) does not distort the rate. Basis: adjusted.
+7.8%
Earnings growth per share plus dividend.
Earnings per share, growth per year+5.9%
Dividend (yield on the price)1.9%
Pace: 5 vs 10 years ⓘTwo data points, not a trend model: earnings growth per share over the last 5 fiscal years against the last 10. Labelled "steady" when both rates are within 3 percentage points of each other, otherwise picking up or flattening. Shown only when ten years of history exist.1.4% vs 7.9%, slowing
Profit margin 2020 to 2025 ⓘOperating margin then vs now, from reported annual statements. A falling margin after a boom year is the classic peak-earnings signal: the growth rate then leans on an inflated base.19% → 27%
Pace: the 5-year rate starts in 2020 (pandemic)
Growth Forecast
A lot of optimism in the price
The price assumes more growth than the company has delivered so far and more than analysts expect.
What the price assumes ⓘThis turns our valuation around: instead of asking what the share is worth, it asks what growth the current price requires. It uses the cash the company keeps after all spending (free cash flow), the same discount rate as our models, five years of growth, then slowing evenly to 2 % a year by year ten. Compared with the analysts' sales forecasts extended to the same five years (at least three analysts, for context only, it does not enter the Fair Value): within 3 percentage points counts as "in line" (amber), below that little optimism (green), above that a lot of optimism (red).
+9.9%
Yearly growth needed for the next five years to justify today's price.
What forecasts expect ⓘAnalysts publish sales forecasts for the next two fiscal years. For the years after that, growth slows evenly to 2 % a year by year ten (2 % is the long-run rate our models use). Projected years are marked as such.
+0.8%
Yearly sales growth analysts expect, extended to five years.
After inflation (USA: IMF forecast 2.4% a year to 2030, 3.1% from 2016 to 2025) that is about +7.4% a year for the price and −1.5% for the forecasts.
News mood ⓘNews mood, the average tone of recent news (99 articles), rated against how stocks are usually covered. 🚀 Hype = unusually upbeat · 🙂 Positive = above average · 😐 Neutral = typical · 🙁 Negative = below average · 😨 Very negative = unusually downbeat. It reflects the tone of coverage, not our valuation.Hype
Recent news coverage is unusually upbeat, far more positive than stocks are typically covered.
AI conclusion: Aflac maintains a moderate moat through its brand and Japan distribution network, yet sector commoditization and limited innovation signals constrain sustained advantage.
Main risk: AI-powered benefits administration platforms from startups could favor agile carriers with API integration and allow employers to optimize or question the value of supplemental products, reducing enrollment or pricing power for Aflac's core offerings.
Bull case: Aflac could leverage its bswift AI partnership and conservative generative AI adoption to streamline distribution and claims while preserving human touchpoints, strengthening its position against new platforms.
Bear case: If AI tools commoditize voluntary benefits setup and Japan faces prolonged yen weakness or demographic pressure, Aflac's supplemental products could see slower enrollment growth and margin compression in its key markets.
Aflac is the exclusive launch partner for bswift's new AI tools that automatically configure its voluntary benefit plans from uploaded documents. The move targets faster and more accurate setup in employer channels where these supplemental products are sold. Yet it remains unclear whether the resulting efficiency will mainly expand reach or simply make it easier for competitors to match Aflac's offerings. Will the technology widen the moat around its distribution or erode pricing power over time?
Price, fair value, quality and upside side by side.
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Peer GroupⓘHow this stock ranks against its industry: the green marker is this stock, the band is the typical 25–75% peer range, and the tick is the median.Insurance - Life · 77 stocks
Beats the industry median on 5/15 measures
Overall it trails its industry peers.
Valuation
Quality Score64 · Top 25%
Fair Value upside−46.7% · Below median
Profitability
Return on equity (12 months)16.9% · Above median
Return on assets3.1% · Top 25%
Net margin (12 months)26.9% · Top 25%
Operating margin (12 months)25.7% · Above median
Growth and dividend
Revenue growth (quarter YoY)−1.0% · Below median
Dividend yield (12 months)1.9% · Below median
Balance sheet
Debt / equity0.29× · Above median
Valuation Multiplesvs Insurance - Life median · lower = cheaper
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Cite: Fair Value Calculator (2026). "Aflac Incorporated Fair Value". https://www.fairvalue-calculator.com/stock/AFL
Frequently asked questions
Is Aflac Incorporated (AFL) overvalued or undervalued?
As of Nov 5, 2026, our model estimates a fair value of $67.30 versus a price of $126.24, about 47% lower (overvalued).
What is the fair value of AFL?
Our model-based fair value for Aflac Incorporated is $67.30 (as of Nov 5, 2026), built from audited fundamentals. The current price: $126.24.
What is the quality score of AFL?
Aflac Incorporated has a Quality Score of 64/100. It measures business quality (profitability, growth, cash flow, balance-sheet strength, investment discipline, share issuance). Market factors such as price momentum and volatility do not enter the number; they are shown separately in the detail view.
What is the price target for Aflac Incorporated (AFL)?
Our model-based price target is the fair value of $67.30 (as of Nov 5, 2026) from 6 valuation models. Cautious scenario $56.61, optimistic scenario $89.25. It is a calculation from audited fundamentals, not an analyst target.
What is the Aflac Incorporated stock forecast for 2026?
Our models put fair value at $67.30, about 47% lower versus a price of $126.24 (overvalued). Cautious scenario $56.61, optimistic scenario $89.25. The calculation is refreshed regularly with new filings.
What is the revenue of Aflac Incorporated (AFL)?
Aflac Incorporated reported trailing-twelve-month revenue of about $18.1B (latest available figure, as of Nov 5, 2026).
Does Aflac Incorporated pay a dividend?
Aflac Incorporated currently shows a dividend yield of 1.89% relative to its recent price (as of Nov 5, 2026).
What growth is priced into Aflac Incorporated (AFL)?
For today's price to be fair in a discounted-cash-flow model, Aflac Incorporated would have to grow free cash flow by +9.9 % per year for five years (discount rate 8.2 %, then slowing evenly to 2 % perpetual growth by year ten). Over the last 5 years revenue grew -4.7 % per year. As of Nov 5, 2026.
What discount rate (WACC) does the fair value of AFL use?
Our models discount Aflac Incorporated at 8.2 %: a base by market capitalisation (large), damped by beta 0.55, country premium for USA. The same rate applies in all 26 models.
What is a reverse DCF?
A reverse DCF turns the usual calculation around. Instead of deriving a value from assumptions, it takes today's price as given and asks: what free-cash-flow growth would a company have to deliver for exactly this price to be fair? The result is not a forecast but the expectation already priced in. For Aflac Incorporated that is +9.9 % per year a year over ten years, using the same discount rate (8.2 %) and the same formula as our fair value.
How much growth has Aflac Incorporated (AFL) delivered so far?
Over the past 5 years revenue at Aflac Incorporated grew -4.7 % a year. The price currently implies +9.9 % per year free-cash-flow growth a year. Comparing the two shows how much confidence is in the price: if it demands more than has been delivered, the business has to accelerate for the maths to work.
How fast is the sector of Aflac Incorporated (AFL) growing?
The median revenue growth in the sector is +9.4 % a year. That is the yardstick for the growth priced into Aflac Incorporated (+9.9 % per year a year): it shows whether the expectation is within the usual range or beyond it.
What is the free cash flow yield of Aflac Incorporated (AFL)?
The free-cash-flow yield on the price is 4.00 %: that much free cash flow Aflac Incorporated produces per unit of market value. When it exceeds the discount rate of our models (8.2 %), the business already earns more than its cost of capital demands, and the price needs little additional growth.
What is the intrinsic value of Aflac Incorporated (AFL)?
Intrinsic value and fair value mean the same thing: what the business is worth on its numbers, independent of the share price. For Aflac Incorporated it is $67.30 per share (as of Nov 5, 2026), against a price of $126.24. It is the blended result of 6 valuation models (cash flow, earnings, asset, dividend).
Is Aflac Incorporated stock overvalued or undervalued in 2026?
As of Nov 5, 2026, AFL trades above its calculated fair value: price $126.24, fair value $67.30, a gap of about −47% (overvalued). The calculation is refreshed with each new quarterly report, so the verdict can change during the year.
Is fair value the same as the market price of AFL?
No. The price is what the market pays today ($126.24); the fair value is what the company's own numbers justify ($67.30). For Aflac Incorporated the two are $58.94 per share apart. That gap is exactly why we show both numbers side by side.
How much is Aflac Incorporated worth?
The market values Aflac Incorporated at about $63.8B (market capitalisation, as of Nov 5, 2026). Per share that is $126.24; our models calculate a fair value of $67.30 per share.
What do the bullish and bearish scenarios say about AFL?
Our models span a range for Aflac Incorporated: cautious scenario $56.61, base $67.30, optimistic $89.25 per share (as of Nov 5, 2026, price $126.24). The range comes from different growth and margin assumptions, not from analyst opinions.
What is the P/E ratio of AFL?
Aflac Incorporated trades at a price-to-earnings ratio of 13.6 (as of Nov 5, 2026). A P/E on its own says little: it compares the price with ONE year of profit, while our fair value of $67.30 is built from several models across several years. Median P/E at fiscal year-end, 8 fiscal years (2018 to 2025), reported earnings, FY2022, FY2023 ex one-offs: 11.1. Other multiples: PEG 1.2, P/B 2.2, P/S 3.5, EV/EBITDA 10.9.
What is the PEG ratio of AFL?
The PEG ratio of Aflac Incorporated is 1.18 (P/E divided by earnings growth, as of Nov 5, 2026). That is above 1, so the growth is already paid for in the price.
How solid is the balance sheet of Aflac Incorporated (AFL)?
Balance-sheet figures for Aflac Incorporated (as of Nov 5, 2026): return on equity 16.9%, debt of 0.29 per unit of equity. They feed the Quality Score of 64/100, which measures business quality independently of the share price.
How far is AFL from its 52-week high?
Aflac Incorporated trades at $126.24, about 2% below its 52-week high of $128.90 and 20% above the low of $105.12 (as of Nov 5, 2026). Distance from the high says nothing about value: that is what the fair value of $67.30 is for.
Which stocks are comparable to Aflac Incorporated?
From the same area (Financial Services) we also value Ping An Insurance (Group) Company, China Life Insurance Company, AIA Group, Manulife Financial Corporation, among others. Each of them has its own fair-value calculation on this site using the same models, so the comparison is like for like.
Is Aflac Incorporated stock attractive at the current price?
The data as of Nov 5, 2026: price $126.24, calculated fair value $67.30 (−47%), Quality Score 64/100, from 6 models. Whether that fits your horizon and risk tolerance is your call. We provide the calculation, not investment advice.
How is the fair value of AFL calculated?
We run Aflac Incorporated through 6 models from four families: discounted cash flow, earnings models, asset and balance-sheet models, and dividend models. Every model gets the same audited fundamentals; the result is the weighted average of $67.30, with the spread shown as a cautious and an optimistic scenario.
Is it still worth investing in stocks now?
The global stock market currently sits 15.5% above its aggregate fair value. Aflac Incorporated itself currently trades above fair value. An expensive market is no reason to stay out and no reason to buy everything at once: keep a broad savings plan running, buy single stocks only with money you can do without, and hold part of your money liquid while the market is high. The full picture including sectors is on is it worth investing now.
What is the share price of Aflac Incorporated (AFL)?
The closing price on Nov 5, 2026 was $126.24. Our model-based fair value is $67.30, about 47% lower (overvalued). We carry closing prices from our data provider, not a live tick.
What should I pay attention to with Aflac Incorporated right now?
The price sits above even our optimistic bull case ($89.25). The favourable scenario is already priced in. Solid but not exceptional quality (64/100) and above fair value, neither a clear bargain nor a standout compounder. For a financial, book-value and earnings-based methods matter more than a cash-flow DCF, which fits banks and insurers poorly.
Where does the earnings growth of Aflac Incorporated (AFL) come from?
Earnings per share at Aflac Incorporated grew +11.2 % a year from 2014 to 2025. Broken into its drivers: revenue per share +2.8 %, EBIT margin +4.3 %, tax rate +2.9 %, residual (interest, one-offs) +0.7 %. The four rates multiply to the earnings growth rate, they do not add up. Start and end are three-year averages so a single exceptional year does not distort the result.
Key figures of Aflac Incorporated
How large is the market capitalisation of Aflac Incorporated (AFL)?
The market capitalisation of Aflac Incorporated is $63.8B. The stock-market value of the whole company: share price times number of shares. It is what the market asks for the entire business today.
What is the P/S ratio of Aflac Incorporated (AFL)?
The price-to-sales ratio of Aflac Incorporated is 3.53 (last twelve months). Price to sales: market value relative to yearly revenue. Useful when profit is thin or distorted.
What are the earnings per share of Aflac Incorporated (AFL)?
Earnings per share at Aflac Incorporated are $9.30 (price ÷ EPS = P/E 13.6). Earnings per share over the last twelve months: total profit spread across every single share.
What is the dividend yield of Aflac Incorporated (AFL)?
The dividend yield of Aflac Incorporated is 1.9% (payout 25.6%). Yearly dividend relative to the share price. 3% pays 3 per 100 invested. Below: how much of profit is used for it.
What is the net margin of Aflac Incorporated (AFL)?
The net margin of Aflac Incorporated is 26.9% (last twelve months). How much of every unit of revenue ends up as profit. 10% means 10 cents of profit per dollar of sales.
What is the return on equity of Aflac Incorporated (AFL)?
The return on equity (ROE) of Aflac Incorporated is 16.9% (last twelve months). Profit relative to shareholders' equity, how efficiently the company works with its owners' money.
What is the EBIT return on assets of Aflac Incorporated (AFL)?
On an EBIT basis the return on assets of Aflac Incorporated is 4.1% (avg 5y). Operating profit (EBIT) relative to everything the company owns, as a multi-year average. It describes the business model rather than one good or bad year.
What is the operating margin of Aflac Incorporated (AFL)?
The operating margin of Aflac Incorporated is 25.7% (last twelve months). Profit from the core business (before interest and taxes) relative to revenue.
How fast is revenue growing at Aflac Incorporated (AFL)?
Revenue at Aflac Incorporated is growing −1.0% versus a year earlier (3y avg −3.1%). How much revenue grew versus a year earlier (YoY). The 3-year average next to it puts the single year in context.
How fast are earnings growing at Aflac Incorporated (AFL)?
Earnings per share at Aflac Incorporated are growing +46.8% versus a year earlier. How much earnings per share grew versus a year earlier.
How much net debt does Aflac Incorporated (AFL) carry?
The net debt of Aflac Incorporated is $2.2B (fiscal year 2025, ≈ 0.8 yrs of FCF). Debt minus cash on hand. The note shows how many years of free cash flow could in theory pay it off.
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Broad data
Nov 5, 2026