Amentum Holdings Inc. (AMTM) fair value: what the stock is really worth
As of Nov 6, 2026: fair value (intrinsic value) of Amentum Holdings Inc. stock $11.49, price $21.25, that is 45.9% below the price, quality 45 out of 100. Rating: strongly overvalued. Calculated from audited financials with 22 of our 26 valuation models and 37 quality factors, updated daily.
69 individual criteria per stock, every one traceableSee the method →
Price vs Fair Value
White line = price, green steps = our fair value per fiscal year. As of Nov 7, 2026.
How to read this chart
25‑month range $16.43 – $37.53 · fair‑value band $6.09 – $19.51 · the $21.25 price screens above the $11.49 fair value. Green steps = our fair value per fiscal year (point-in-time, no hindsight). As of Nov 7, 2026.
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Amentum Holdings, Inc. engages in the provision of engineering and technology solutions in the United States and internationally. It operates through two segments, Digital Solutions and Global Engineering Solutions.
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The company offers digital and data-driven solutions, including intelligence analytics, space system development, cybersecurity, and IT to the federal government and commercial clients.
It also provides large-scale environmental remediation, nuclear power solutions, platform engineering, sustainment, and supply chain management for the U.S. government and allied nations. The company was incorporated in 2023 and is headquartered in Chantilly, Virginia.
Stock analysis
Amentum Holdings Inc. (AMTM) currently trades at $21.25, while our model-based Fair Value estimate is $11.49, 46% below the price, so the stock looks overvalued today.
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Valuation
Bull case: the Growth DCF group reads highest at a median of $69.57 per share, and 10 of the 22 models we run sit above the $21.25 price.
Bear case: the Earnings-Based group reads lowest at $7.05, and 12 of the 22 models stay below the price. Data coverage for this calculation is medium.
Scenario range: $6.09 (bear) to $19.51 (bull), the price of $21.25 sits above it. Bear and bull are the same models on cautious and optimistic assumptions, a range, not a price target.
Quality & growth
The Quality Score stands at 45/100 (below-average quality), in the Industrials sector.
Mixed Growth: Revenue is growing, but margins or cash flow do not fully confirm the trend.
Amentum Holdings Inc. reported revenue of $14.4B in FY2025 versus $5.1B in FY2021, a compound +29.7%/yr. Reported net income was $66.0M in FY2025, compounding −24.1%/yr from FY2021.
Key figures
Market cap $5.2B Mid · P/E ratio 25.6 · P/S ratio 0.37 · EPS (TTM) $0.8300 · Net margin 1.4% · Return on equity 4.3% · Return on assets (EBIT) 2.6% (4-year average) · Operating margin 4.4%.
Competitive moat
Our AI-assisted moat analysis scores the competitive advantage at 31 out of 100 (low confidence).
What moves the price
The last reported earnings sit well below what analysts expect (earnings in transition, for example after write-downs or an earnings dip); whether the stock is cheap or expensive hinges on the expected recovery actually arriving. Read the fair value with that caveat.
The share trades about 43% below its 52-week high and 17% above its 52-week low, currently below its 200-day average.
For context, the median of 10 Industrials peers we cover trades at −12% fair-value upside, at −46%, AMTM screens richer than that median.
Fair Value models
Bear$6.09Fair Value $11.49Bull$19.51
Price $21.25 · Downside -45.9%
Model ⓘEach model values the company its own way (discounted cash flow, earnings, assets, dividends). The fair value above starts from their evidence-weighted blend, not from a single model. In cyclical trough or peak years, after dilution or a stock split it is adjusted afterwards, so it can sit above or below the models. Based on fiscal year 2025 figures (about 10 months old). Earnings retained since then ($0.7118 per share) are deliberately not added.Bear ⓘBear = the cautious scenario: the same model computed with conservative anchors (lower growth, margins and valuation multiples). Together with Bull it frames a plausible valuation range, not a price target.BaseBull ⓘBull = the optimistic scenario: the same model computed with favourable anchors (higher growth, margins and valuation multiples). Together with Bear it frames a plausible valuation range, not a price target. If a model's bull case is above four times its base value, the table shows that limit with a > sign (like the overall Bull above): beyond it no assumption holds.Coverage ⓘCoverage = how well-backed THIS model's estimate is for this stock (0–100): how complete and reliable its input data are, and how well the model fits the company. The final Fair Value is an evidence-weighted blend, so better-evidenced models count more. Green ≥70, amber 50–69, grey below 50.
In the last 6 months, no officer or director bought or sold shares on the open market.
Plus one other filing such as a grant, option exercise or tax withholding. It is not a market purchase or sale.
Sales are often planned (taxes, diversification, 10b5-1 plans). Purchases with their own money are seen as the stronger sign. For information only: not part of the quality score or Fair Value.
Growth Quality ⓘGrowth is valuable only when reinvestment earns attractive returns (Aswath Damodaran): sustainable growth depends on return on capital, reinvestment and efficiency. Basis: total company revenue over the periods shown on the cards (3Y/5Y/all years), not per share, so a merger can show up as a growth jump; per-share earnings growth is in the value-creation card.85/100
Revenue is growing, but margins or cash flow do not fully confirm the trend.
Revenue growth 1 year
+71.6%
Revenue growth 3 years ⓘMeasures the company's TOTAL revenue from reported annual statements: compound average growth per year (CAGR) from the fiscal year 3, 5 or N years back to the most recent comparable fiscal year. Not per share: buybacks do not change this number, and a merger can appear as a growth jump. Per-share growth (which does include buybacks) is in the value-creation card.
+23.3%
’21
’22
’23
’24
’25
What shareholders gained per year (last 5 years) ⓘWhat the business itself delivers per year: earnings growth per share plus the dividend yield. This is what you get IF the market keeps valuing the stock the same way: it contains no assumption about the market changing its mind. Computed per share, so buybacks count and a merger does not pass as growth. For a company that pays no dividend it is pure earnings growth per share. Period: earnings growth per share as CAGR over the last 5 reported fiscal years (annual statements), plus the current dividend yield. The start value is the median of the three years around the start, so a single crisis year (a pandemic or a write-down) does not distort the rate. Basis: adjusted.
−32.1%
Earnings growth per share plus dividend.
Earnings per share, growth per year−32.1%
Dividend (yield on the price)0.0%
Profit margin 2021 to 2025 ⓘOperating margin then vs now, from reported annual statements. A falling margin after a boom year is the classic peak-earnings signal: the growth rate then leans on an inflated base.7% → 4%
Growth Forecast
A lot of optimism in the price
The price assumes less growth than the company has delivered so far and more than analysts expect.
What the price assumes ⓘThis turns our valuation around: instead of asking what the share is worth, it asks what growth the current price requires. It uses the cash the company keeps after all spending (free cash flow), the same discount rate as our models, five years of growth, then slowing evenly to 2 % a year by year ten. Compared with the analysts' sales forecasts extended to the same five years (at least three analysts, for context only, it does not enter the Fair Value): within 3 percentage points counts as "in line" (amber), below that little optimism (green), above that a lot of optimism (red).
+3.3%
Yearly growth needed for the next five years to justify today's price.
What forecasts expect ⓘAnalysts publish sales forecasts for the next two fiscal years. For the years after that, growth slows evenly to 2 % a year by year ten (2 % is the long-run rate our models use). Projected years are marked as such.
−0.7%
Yearly sales growth analysts expect, extended to five years.
After inflation (USA: IMF forecast 2.4% a year to 2030, 3.1% from 2016 to 2025) that is about +0.9% a year for the price and −3.0% for the forecasts.
News mood ⓘNews mood, the average tone of recent news (84 articles), rated against how stocks are usually covered. 🚀 Hype = unusually upbeat · 🙂 Positive = above average · 😐 Neutral = typical · 🙁 Negative = below average · 😨 Very negative = unusually downbeat. It reflects the tone of coverage, not our valuation.Positive
Recent news coverage is more positive than average.
AI conclusion: Specialized nuclear capabilities from the Oak Ridge hub and contract selections form the main strength, while low profitability with no clear moat due to limited data remains the key weakness.
Main risk: Heavy reliance on long-cycle government projects exposes the business to shifts in execution and funding that would directly impact revenue stability and contract delivery.
Amentum is centralizing its nuclear operations in a new Oak Ridge headquarters that houses over 150 specialists and supports its international energy work. This move aligns with recent contract selections in the UK and elsewhere but underscores heavy reliance on long-cycle government projects where execution and funding can shift. Does the nuclear push strengthen the business through specialized capabilities, or does it heighten exposure to regulatory and political uncertainties?
Price, fair value, quality and upside side by side.
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Peer GroupⓘHow this stock ranks against its industry: the green marker is this stock, the band is the typical 25–75% peer range, and the tick is the median.Specialty Business Services · 229 stocks
Beats the industry median on 3/12 measures
Overall it trails its industry peers.
Valuation
Quality Score45 · Bottom 25%
Fair Value upside−45.9% · Bottom 25%
Profitability
Return on equity (12 months)4.3% · Below median
Return on assets0.6% · Bottom 25%
Net margin (12 months)1.4% · Below median
Operating margin (12 months)4.4% · Below median
Growth and dividend
Revenue growth (quarter YoY)−2.0% · Bottom 25%
Balance sheet
Debt / equity0.87× · Highest 25%
Valuation Multiplesvs Specialty Business Services median · lower = cheaper
P/E (12 months)25.6× · Pricier than median
P/B1.16× · book value is mostly goodwill ⓘGoodwill and other intangible assets are larger than the equity. The book value mainly reflects prices paid for past acquisitions, so we do not rank this P/B against the peer group.
P/S (12 months)0.37× · Cheapest 25%
Price / free cash flow (fiscal year)10.1× · Cheaper than median
EV/EBITDA8.6× · Cheaper than median
Strength profile in five axes (Snowflake)
This stockSector peers
VALUE (fair-value potential)0· sector 45
FUTURE (revenue growth)0· sector 33
PAST (return on equity)17· sector 38
HEALTH (low debt)57· sector 94
DIVIDEND (yield)0· sector 57
VALUE 0: the price sits above our fair-value range.
For bloggers, editors and developers: paste this into your site or blog (a “Custom HTML” block in WordPress), it shows the current fair value and links back here. Free, plain HTML, and welcome. Full data streams (CSV/JSON) at /developers.
Cite: Fair Value Calculator (2026). "Amentum Holdings Inc. Fair Value". https://www.fairvalue-calculator.com/stock/AMTM
Frequently asked questions
Is Amentum Holdings Inc. (AMTM) overvalued or undervalued?
As of Nov 7, 2026, our model estimates a fair value of $11.49 versus a price of $21.25, about 46% lower (overvalued).
What is the fair value of AMTM?
Our model-based fair value for Amentum Holdings Inc. is $11.49 (as of Nov 7, 2026), built from audited fundamentals. The current price: $21.25.
What is the quality score of AMTM?
Amentum Holdings Inc. has a Quality Score of 45/100. It measures business quality (profitability, growth, cash flow, balance-sheet strength, investment discipline, share issuance). Market factors such as price momentum and volatility do not enter the number; they are shown separately in the detail view.
What is the price target for Amentum Holdings Inc. (AMTM)?
Our model-based price target is the fair value of $11.49 (as of Nov 7, 2026) from 22 valuation models. Cautious scenario $6.09, optimistic scenario $19.51. It is a calculation from audited fundamentals, not an analyst target.
What is the Amentum Holdings Inc. stock forecast for 2026?
Our models put fair value at $11.49, about 46% lower versus a price of $21.25 (overvalued). Cautious scenario $6.09, optimistic scenario $19.51. The calculation is refreshed regularly with new filings.
What is the revenue of Amentum Holdings Inc. (AMTM)?
Amentum Holdings Inc. reported trailing-twelve-month revenue of about $14.1B (latest available figure, as of Nov 7, 2026).
What growth is priced into Amentum Holdings Inc. (AMTM)?
For today's price to be fair in a discounted-cash-flow model, Amentum Holdings Inc. would have to grow free cash flow by +3.3 % per year for five years (discount rate 8.5 %, then slowing evenly to 2 % perpetual growth by year ten). Over the last 4 years revenue grew +29.7 % per year. As of Nov 7, 2026.
What discount rate (WACC) does the fair value of AMTM use?
Our models discount Amentum Holdings Inc. at 8.5 %: a base by market capitalisation (mid), damped by beta 0.31, country premium for USA. The same rate applies in all 26 models.
What is a reverse DCF?
A reverse DCF turns the usual calculation around. Instead of deriving a value from assumptions, it takes today's price as given and asks: what free-cash-flow growth would a company have to deliver for exactly this price to be fair? The result is not a forecast but the expectation already priced in. For Amentum Holdings Inc. that is +3.3 % per year for five years, then slowing evenly to 2 % by year ten, using the same discount rate (8.5 %) and the same formula as our fair value.
How much growth has Amentum Holdings Inc. (AMTM) delivered so far?
Over the past 4 years revenue at Amentum Holdings Inc. grew +29.7 % a year. The price currently implies free-cash-flow growth of +3.3 % per year. Comparing the two shows how much confidence is in the price: if it demands more than has been delivered, the business has to accelerate for the maths to work.
How fast is the sector of Amentum Holdings Inc. (AMTM) growing?
The median revenue growth in the sector is +7.8 % a year. That is the yardstick for the growth priced into Amentum Holdings Inc. (+3.3 % per year): it shows whether the expectation is within the usual range or beyond it.
What is the free cash flow yield of Amentum Holdings Inc. (AMTM)?
The free-cash-flow yield on the price is 9.91 %: that much free cash flow Amentum Holdings Inc. produces per unit of market value. When it exceeds the discount rate of our models (8.5 %), the business already earns more than its cost of capital demands, and the price needs little additional growth.
What is the intrinsic value of Amentum Holdings Inc. (AMTM)?
Intrinsic value and fair value mean the same thing: what the business is worth on its numbers, independent of the share price. For Amentum Holdings Inc. it is $11.49 per share (as of Nov 7, 2026), against a price of $21.25. It is the blended result of 22 valuation models in 6 families (DCF Models, Earnings-Based, Multiples, Growth DCF, Economic Profit, Growth Earnings).
Is Amentum Holdings Inc. stock overvalued or undervalued in 2026?
As of Nov 7, 2026, AMTM trades above its calculated fair value: price $21.25, fair value $11.49, a gap of about −46% (overvalued). The calculation is refreshed with each new quarterly report, so the verdict can change during the year.
Is fair value the same as the market price of AMTM?
No. The price is what the market pays today ($21.25); the fair value is what the company's own numbers justify ($11.49). For Amentum Holdings Inc. the two are $9.76 per share apart. That gap is exactly why we show both numbers side by side.
How much is Amentum Holdings Inc. worth?
The market values Amentum Holdings Inc. at about $5.2B (market capitalisation, as of Nov 7, 2026). Per share that is $21.25; our models calculate a fair value of $11.49 per share.
What do the bullish and bearish scenarios say about AMTM?
Our models span a range for Amentum Holdings Inc.: cautious scenario $6.09, base $11.49, optimistic $19.51 per share (as of Nov 7, 2026, price $21.25). The range comes from different growth and margin assumptions, not from analyst opinions.
What is the P/E ratio of AMTM?
Amentum Holdings Inc. trades at a price-to-earnings ratio of 25.6 (as of Nov 7, 2026). A P/E on its own says little: it compares the price with ONE year of profit, while our fair value of $11.49 is built from several models across several years. Excluding one-off items of fiscal year 2025 it is 48.3 (reported for FY2025: 78.7). Other multiples: P/B 1.2, P/S 0.4, EV/EBITDA 8.6.
How solid is the balance sheet of Amentum Holdings Inc. (AMTM)?
Balance-sheet figures for Amentum Holdings Inc. (as of Nov 7, 2026): return on equity 4.3%, debt of 0.87 per unit of equity. They feed the Quality Score of 45/100, which measures business quality independently of the share price.
How far is AMTM from its 52-week high?
Amentum Holdings Inc. trades at $21.25, about 43% below its 52-week high of $37.53 and 17% above the low of $18.12 (as of Nov 6, 2026). Distance from the high says nothing about value: that is what the fair value of $11.49 is for.
Which stocks are comparable to Amentum Holdings Inc.?
From the same area (Industrials) we also value Cintas Corporation, Thomson Reuters Corporation, Copart, Inc, Global Payments Inc, among others. Each of them has its own fair-value calculation on this site using the same models, so the comparison is like for like.
Is Amentum Holdings Inc. stock attractive at the current price?
The data as of Nov 7, 2026: price $21.25, calculated fair value $11.49 (−46%), Quality Score 45/100, from 22 models. Whether that fits your horizon and risk tolerance is your call. We provide the calculation, not investment advice.
How is the fair value of AMTM calculated?
We run Amentum Holdings Inc. through 22 models from 6 families: DCF Models, Earnings-Based, Multiples, Growth DCF, Economic Profit, Growth Earnings. Every model gets the same audited fundamentals; the fair value of $11.49 builds on their evidence-weighted average, with the spread shown as a cautious and an optimistic scenario.
Is it still worth investing in stocks now?
The global stock market currently sits 13.3% above its aggregate fair value. Amentum Holdings Inc. itself currently trades above fair value. An expensive market is no reason to stay out and no reason to buy everything at once: keep a broad savings plan running, buy single stocks only with money you can do without, and hold part of your money liquid while the market is high. The full picture including sectors is on is it worth investing now.
What is the share price of Amentum Holdings Inc. (AMTM)?
The closing price on Nov 6, 2026 was $21.25. Our model-based fair value is $11.49, about 46% lower (overvalued). We carry closing prices from our data provider, not a live tick.
What should I pay attention to with Amentum Holdings Inc. right now?
The price sits above even our optimistic bull case ($19.51). The favourable scenario is already priced in. Weak quality (45/100) and above fair value at the same time, the margin of safety is missing on both counts. The model range is unusually wide ($6.09 to $19.51). The outcome hinges heavily on assumptions, so read the point estimate with caution.
Key figures of Amentum Holdings Inc.
How large is the market capitalisation of Amentum Holdings Inc. (AMTM)?
The market capitalisation of Amentum Holdings Inc. is $5.2B. The stock-market value of the whole company: share price times number of shares. It is what the market asks for the entire business today.
What is the P/S ratio of Amentum Holdings Inc. (AMTM)?
The price-to-sales ratio of Amentum Holdings Inc. is 0.37 (last twelve months). Price to sales: market value relative to yearly revenue. Useful when profit is thin or distorted.
What are the earnings per share of Amentum Holdings Inc. (AMTM)?
Earnings per share at Amentum Holdings Inc. are $0.8300 (price ÷ EPS = P/E 25.6). Earnings per share over the last twelve months: total profit spread across every single share.
What is the net margin of Amentum Holdings Inc. (AMTM)?
The net margin of Amentum Holdings Inc. is 1.4% (last twelve months). How much of every unit of revenue ends up as profit. 10% means 10 cents of profit per dollar of sales.
What is the return on equity of Amentum Holdings Inc. (AMTM)?
The return on equity (ROE) of Amentum Holdings Inc. is 4.3% (last twelve months). Profit relative to shareholders' equity, how efficiently the company works with its owners' money.
What is the EBIT return on assets of Amentum Holdings Inc. (AMTM)?
On an EBIT basis the return on assets of Amentum Holdings Inc. is 2.6% (avg 4y). Operating profit (EBIT) relative to everything the company owns, as a multi-year average. It describes the business model rather than one good or bad year.
What is the operating margin of Amentum Holdings Inc. (AMTM)?
The operating margin of Amentum Holdings Inc. is 4.4% (last twelve months). Profit from the core business (before interest and taxes) relative to revenue.
How fast is revenue growing at Amentum Holdings Inc. (AMTM)?
Revenue at Amentum Holdings Inc. is growing −2.0% versus a year earlier (3y avg +23.3%). How much revenue grew versus a year earlier (YoY). The 3-year average next to it puts the single year in context.
How fast are earnings growing at Amentum Holdings Inc. (AMTM)?
Earnings per share at Amentum Holdings Inc. are growing +575% versus a year earlier. How much earnings per share grew versus a year earlier.
How much net debt does Amentum Holdings Inc. (AMTM) carry?
The net debt of Amentum Holdings Inc. is $3.7B (fiscal year 2025, ≈ 7.2 yrs of FCF). Debt minus cash on hand. The note shows how many years of free cash flow could in theory pay it off.
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Some data
Nov 7, 2026