Amentum Holdings (AMTM) Fair Value & Analysis
Industrials · US · Market cap $5.1B
Amentum Holdings
AMTM · US
Fair value as of: Jul 17, 2026
From 24 valuation models · updated 23 days ago
Share price +18.6% over the past month.
Below-average quality, and screening another 77% overvalued on our models.
What matters now
- The price sits above even our optimistic bull case ($7.50). The favourable scenario is already priced in.
- Weak quality (38/100) and above fair value at the same time, the margin of safety is missing on both counts.
- A fairly wide model range ($3.61 to $7.50) leaves room in how you read the outcome.
Price vs Fair Value (22 months)
White line = price, green steps = our fair value per fiscal year, dashed = 300-day average. As of Jul 17, 2026.
How to read this chart
22‑month range $16.43 – $37.53 · fair‑value band $3.61 – $7.50 · the $24.77 price screens above the $5.76 fair value. Green steps = our fair value per fiscal year (point-in-time, no hindsight). Dashed = 300-day average. As of Jul 17, 2026.
Analysis
Amentum Holdings (AMTM) currently trades at $24.77, while our model-based Fair Value estimate is $5.76, implying the stock looks roughly 76.7% overvalued today. The Quality Score stands at 38/100 (below-average quality), in the Industrials sector. Bear case: priced above our estimate, the market already discounts strong expectations. Bull case: above-average quality can justify a premium, the entry price still matters most (evidence: high).
Over the trailing twelve months, Amentum Holdings generated revenue of $14.2B at a net margin of 1.0%. Revenue declined 0.4% year over year. It earns a return on equity of 2.9%. Net debt stands at $3.7B. Fundamentals as of Jul 17, 2026
Our scenario range runs from $3.61 (bear case) to $7.50 (bull case); at $24.77, the current price sits above that range. Bear and bull are the same models run on conservative and optimistic assumptions (margins, growth, valuation multiples), so a plausible valuation range, not a price target. The last reported earnings sit well below what analysts expect (earnings in transition, for example after write-downs or an earnings dip); whether the stock is cheap or expensive hinges on the expected recovery actually arriving. Read the fair value with that caveat. The share trades about 35% below its 52-week high and 17% above its 52-week low, currently below its 200-day average. For context, the median of 10 Industrials peers we cover trades at -35% fair-value upside, at -77%, AMTM screens richer than that median.
Fair Value models
Each model estimates fair value its own way; the Fair Value above is the evidence-weighted blend. Evidence (0–100) measures how completely this model’s inputs are available: well-fed models carry more weight in the blend. The spread across models is intentional, each one stresses a different value driver; dividend models, for instance, come out structurally low when payout is small.
All 24 models by family
Widest divergence: DCF Models ($37.54) versus Economic Profit ($5.08). Highest evidence: Growth DCF (80).
Key figures & financial health
More key figures
Figures from reported company fundamentals · as of Jul 17, 2026. TTM = trailing twelve months.
Quality Score breakdown
Of which business quality 42 · Market factors (momentum, volatility) 28
Non-valuation factor families (profitability, growth, cashflow, financial strength, momentum …), each academically grounded. Valuation itself sits in the Fair Value and is deliberately excluded here to avoid double-counting.
About the company
Amentum Holdings, Inc. engages in the provision of engineering and technology solutions in the United States and internationally. It operates through two segments, Digital Solutions and Global Engineering Solutions.
Full company description
Amentum Holdings, Inc. engages in the provision of engineering and technology solutions in the United States and internationally. It operates through two segments, Digital Solutions and Global Engineering Solutions. The company offers digital and data-driven solutions, including intelligence analytics, space system development, cybersecurity, and IT to the federal government and commercial clients. It also provides large-scale environmental remediation, nuclear power solutions, platform engineering, sustainment, and supply chain management for the U.S. government and allied nations. The company was incorporated in 2023 and is headquartered in Chantilly, Virginia.
Company description, as reported by the company or data provider.
Revenue & earnings trend
FY2021 – FY2025 · reported fiscal years
Amentum Holdings reported revenue of $14.4B in FY2025 versus $5.1B in FY2021, a compound +29.7%/yr. Reported net income was $66.0M in FY2025, compounding −24.1%/yr from FY2021.
AMTM screens 77% overvalued. Compare with Cintas Corporation →
Recent news
External third-party headlines (Yahoo Finance, Reuters and others), not an editorial selection.
- Amentum Holdings (AMTM) Reports Next Week: Wall Street Expects Earnings Growth
- Westinghouse and Amentum Partner to Expand Delivery Capacity for APX Fleet Deployment
Peer Group
Specialty Business Services · 255 stocks
How this stock ranks against its industry: the green marker is this stock, the band is the typical 25–75% peer range, and the tick is the median.
Valuation Multiples vs Specialty Business Services median · lower = cheaper
Snowflake
Five quick dimensions, each 0 to 100: VALUE (fair-value potential), FUTURE (revenue growth), PAST (return on equity), HEALTH (low debt), DIVIDEND (yield). Green = this stock, grey = typical sector peer.
VALUE 0: the price sits above our fair-value range.
Insider activity: 40/100
Values & ESG
Does this company touch areas you may want to avoid? The classification is inferred from sector and industry.
ESG scores are not available for this stock yet. Values and ESG data are contextual and can differ between providers.
Similar stocks
10 more Specialty Business Services stocks, each showing price versus our Fair Value estimate (as of Jul 17, 2026).
| Stock | Price | Fair Value | vs Fair Value |
|---|---|---|---|
| Cintas Corporation CTAS | $206.25 | $95.30 | -54% |
| RELX PLC RELX | $33.70 | $32.49 | -4% |
| Thomson Reuters Corporation TRI | C$133.87 | C$70.40 | -47% |
| Copart, Inc CPRT | $27.61 | $28.59 | +4% |
| Global Payments Inc GPN | $80.49 | $69.67 | -13% |
| RB Global, Inc RBA | C$156.43 | C$49.14 | -69% |
| Brambles Limited BXB | A$18.79 | A$12.28 | -35% |
| UL Solutions Inc ULS | $87.76 | $33.62 | -62% |
| Wolters Kluwer N.V WKL | €62.56 | €103.99 | +66% |
| Aramark ARMK | $56.74 | $13.73 | -76% |
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Frequently asked questions
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How we calculate Fair Value
Each company is valued through a stack of independent intrinsic-value models (DCF variants, residual-income, multiples and more), blended into one family-balanced consensus and weighted by how much trustworthy data backs it. A separate quality layer scores the fundamentals. Every input is real reported data, nothing guessed.
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