Conagra Brands, Inc. (CAG) fair value: what the stock is really worth
As of Nov 6, 2026: fair value (intrinsic value) of Conagra Brands, Inc. stock $15.07, price $15.24, that is 1.1% below the price, quality 46 out of 100. Rating: fairly valued. Calculated from audited financials with 6 of our 26 valuation models and 37 quality factors, updated daily.
69 individual criteria per stock, every one traceableSee the method →
Price vs Fair Value
White line = price, green steps = our fair value per fiscal year. As of Nov 7, 2026.
How to read this chart
60‑month range $12.58 – $33.56 · fair‑value band $8.12 – $26.83 · the $15.24 price screens above the $15.07 fair value. Green steps = our fair value per fiscal year (point-in-time, no hindsight). As of Nov 7, 2026.
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Conagra Brands, Inc., together with its subsidiaries, operates as a consumer packaged goods food company primarily in the United States. The company operates in four segments: Grocery & Snacks, Refrigerated & Frozen, International, and Foodservice.
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The Grocery & Snacks segment primarily offers shelf stable food products through various retail channels. The Refrigerated & Frozen segment provides temperature-controlled food products through various retail channels.
The International segment offers food products in various temperature states through retail and foodservice channels outside of the United States.
The Foodservice segment offers branded and customized food products, including meals, entrees, sauces, and various custom-manufactured culinary products packaged for restaurants and other foodservice establishments.
The company sells its products under the Birds Eye, Marie Callender's, Duncan Hines, Healthy Choice, Slim Jim, Reddi-wip, Angie's, BOOMCHICKAPOP brands. Conagra Brands, Inc. was incorporated in 1919 and is headquartered in Chicago, Illinois.
Stock analysis
Conagra Brands, Inc. (CAG) currently trades at $15.24, while our model-based Fair Value estimate is $15.07, so the stock looks roughly fairly valued today (gap 1.1%).
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Valuation
Bull case: the Growth DCF group reads highest at a median of $18.10 per share, and 3 of the 6 models we run sit above the $15.24 price.
Bear case: the Multiples group reads lowest at $11.88, and 3 of the 6 models stay below the price. Data coverage for this calculation is medium.
Scenario range: $8.12 (bear) to $26.83 (bull), the price of $15.24 sits inside it. Bear and bull are the same models on cautious and optimistic assumptions, a range, not a price target.
Quality & growth
The Quality Score stands at 46/100 (below-average quality), in the Consumer Defensive sector.
Mixed Growth: Spin-off in 2016: revenue and profit before it include the divested business. Growth is measured afresh from 2016.
Conagra Brands, Inc. reported revenue of $11.3B in FY2026 versus $11.5B in FY2022, a compound −0.6%/yr. Reported net income was −$1.9B in FY2026.
Key figures
Market cap $7.3B Mid · P/E ex one-offs 8.9 · P/S ratio 0.60 · EPS (TTM) $−4.12 · Dividend yield 8.0% · Net margin −17.0% · Return on equity −24.9% · Return on assets (EBIT) 2.4% (5-year average).
Competitive moat
Our AI-assisted moat analysis scores the competitive advantage at 22 out of 100 (medium confidence).
What moves the price
The share trades about 22% below its 52-week high and 21% above its 52-week low, currently above its 200-day average.
For context, the median of 10 Consumer Defensive peers we cover trades at −1% fair-value upside, at −1%, CAG screens richer than that median.
Fair Value models
Bear$8.12Fair Value $15.07Bull$26.83
Price $15.24 · Downside -1.1%
Model ⓘEach model values the company its own way (discounted cash flow, earnings, assets, dividends). The fair value above starts from their evidence-weighted blend, not from a single model. In cyclical trough or peak years, after dilution or a stock split it is adjusted afterwards, so it can sit above or below the models.Bear ⓘBear = the cautious scenario: the same model computed with conservative anchors (lower growth, margins and valuation multiples). Together with Bull it frames a plausible valuation range, not a price target.BaseBull ⓘBull = the optimistic scenario: the same model computed with favourable anchors (higher growth, margins and valuation multiples). Together with Bear it frames a plausible valuation range, not a price target. If a model's bull case is above four times its base value, the table shows that limit with a > sign (like the overall Bull above): beyond it no assumption holds.Coverage ⓘCoverage = how well-backed THIS model's estimate is for this stock (0–100): how complete and reliable its input data are, and how well the model fits the company. The final Fair Value is an evidence-weighted blend, so better-evidenced models count more. Green ≥70, amber 50–69, grey below 50.
In the last 6 months, one officer or director bought shares worth $510,650, on Jul 17, 2026.
BuyJohn P BrasePresident and CEO, Director35,000 shares at $14.59$510,650Jul 17, 2026
BuyRichard H LennyDirector25,000 shares at $14.34$358,500Apr 14, 2026
BuyJohn J MulliganDirector17,500 shares at $14.31$250,425Apr 14, 2026
Plus 32 other filings such as grants, option exercises or tax withholding. They are not market purchases or sales.
Sales are often planned (taxes, diversification, 10b5-1 plans). Purchases with their own money are seen as the stronger sign. For information only: not part of the quality score or Fair Value.
Growth Quality ⓘGrowth is valuable only when reinvestment earns attractive returns (Aswath Damodaran): sustainable growth depends on return on capital, reinvestment and efficiency. Basis: total company revenue over the periods shown on the cards (3Y/5Y/all years), not per share, so a merger can show up as a growth jump; per-share earnings growth is in the value-creation card.55/100
Spin-off in 2016: revenue and profit before it include the divested business. Growth is measured afresh from 2016.
Revenue growth 1 year
−2.9%
Revenue growth 3 years ⓘMeasures the company's TOTAL revenue from reported annual statements: compound average growth per year (CAGR) from the fiscal year 3, 5 or N years back to the most recent comparable fiscal year. Not per share: buybacks do not change this number, and a merger can appear as a growth jump. Per-share growth (which does include buybacks) is in the value-creation card.
−2.8%
Revenue growth 5 years ⓘMeasures the company's TOTAL revenue from reported annual statements: compound average growth per year (CAGR) from the fiscal year 3, 5 or N years back to the most recent comparable fiscal year. Not per share: buybacks do not change this number, and a merger can appear as a growth jump. Per-share growth (which does include buybacks) is in the value-creation card.
+0.2%
Start year 2021 (pandemic). Over 10 years: +2.7% a year
Revenue growth 10 years ⓘMeasures the company's TOTAL revenue from reported annual statements: compound average growth per year (CAGR) from the fiscal year 3, 5 or N years back to the most recent comparable fiscal year. Not per share: buybacks do not change this number, and a merger can appear as a growth jump. Per-share growth (which does include buybacks) is in the value-creation card.
+2.7%
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Profit margin (trend) ⓘOperating margin then vs now, from reported annual statements. A falling margin after a boom year is the classic peak-earnings signal: the growth rate then leans on an inflated base.
15.9% (2021) → −14.4% (2026)
What shareholders gained per year ⓘWe only publish this rate when it is defensible. Reason: fiscal 2026 is a loss year, no rate is defined from a loss
not computed
Growth Forecast
A lot of optimism in the price
The price assumes more growth than the company has delivered so far and more than analysts expect.
What the price assumes ⓘThis turns our valuation around: instead of asking what the share is worth, it asks what growth the current price requires. It uses the cash the company keeps after all spending (free cash flow), the same discount rate as our models, five years of growth, then slowing evenly to 2 % a year by year ten. Compared with the analysts' sales forecasts extended to the same five years (at least three analysts, for context only, it does not enter the Fair Value): within 3 percentage points counts as "in line" (amber), below that little optimism (green), above that a lot of optimism (red).
+3.9%
Yearly growth needed for the next five years to justify today's price.
What forecasts expect ⓘAnalysts publish sales forecasts for the next two fiscal years. For the years after that, growth slows evenly to 2 % a year by year ten (2 % is the long-run rate our models use). Projected years are marked as such.
−0.8%
Yearly sales growth analysts expect, extended to five years.
After inflation (USA: IMF forecast 2.4% a year to 2030, 3.1% from 2016 to 2025) that is about +1.5% a year for the price and −3.1% for the forecasts.
News mood ⓘNews mood, the average tone of recent news (100 articles), rated against how stocks are usually covered. 🚀 Hype = unusually upbeat · 🙂 Positive = above average · 😐 Neutral = typical · 🙁 Negative = below average · 😨 Very negative = unusually downbeat. It reflects the tone of coverage, not our valuation.Neutral
Recent news coverage is roughly neutral, about typical for how stocks are covered.
AI conclusion: Packaged foods scale offers a base yet recurring impairments and weak returns limit any durable advantage.
Main risk: Walmart accounts for a substantial portion of Conagra's net sales, so any reduction in orders or demands for lower prices could sharply cut revenue and margins.
Bull case: By streamlining its portfolio and investing in differentiated brands like meat sticks and popcorn while deepening retailer partnerships beyond Walmart, Conagra could regain volume momentum and improve margins through targeted innovation.
Bear case: If Walmart reduces its purchases or private labels continue to capture share while debt costs rise, Conagra might see persistent volume declines, margin compression and limited ability to invest, threatening its position in key categories.
Conagra's new CEO is cutting the dividend in half and slimming the portfolio by exiting lines like Celeste pizza to free cash for debt paydown and targeted brand investments. Organic sales still declined in the latest quarter as volumes slipped under consumer pressure. Will the push for simplicity and reinvestment lift margins and volumes faster than ongoing headwinds erode them?
Price, fair value, quality and upside side by side.
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Peer GroupⓘHow this stock ranks against its industry: the green marker is this stock, the band is the typical 25–75% peer range, and the tick is the median.Packaged Foods · 627 stocks
Beats the industry median on 5/12 measures
A mixed picture versus its industry peers.
Valuation
Quality Score46 · Below median
Fair Value upside−1.1% · Below median
Profitability
Return on assets−11.1% · Bottom 25%
Net margin (12 months)−17.0% · Bottom 25%
Operating margin (12 months)11.6% · Above median
Growth and dividend
Revenue growth (quarter YoY)−1.4% · Below median
Dividend yield (12 months)8.0% · Top 25%
Balance sheet
Debt / equity1.02× · Highest 25%
Valuation Multiplesvs Packaged Foods median · lower = cheaper
P/B1.15× · book value is mostly goodwill ⓘGoodwill and other intangible assets are larger than the equity. The book value mainly reflects prices paid for past acquisitions, so we do not rank this P/B against the peer group.
For bloggers, editors and developers: paste this into your site or blog (a “Custom HTML” block in WordPress), it shows the current fair value and links back here. Free, plain HTML, and welcome. Full data streams (CSV/JSON) at /developers.
Cite: Fair Value Calculator (2026). "Conagra Brands, Inc. Fair Value". https://www.fairvalue-calculator.com/stock/CAG
Frequently asked questions
Is Conagra Brands, Inc. (CAG) overvalued or undervalued?
As of Nov 7, 2026, our model estimates a fair value of $15.07 versus a price of $15.24, about 1% lower (fairly valued).
What is the fair value of CAG?
Our model-based fair value for Conagra Brands, Inc. is $15.07 (as of Nov 7, 2026), built from audited fundamentals. The current price: $15.24.
What is the quality score of CAG?
Conagra Brands, Inc. has a Quality Score of 46/100. It measures business quality (profitability, growth, cash flow, balance-sheet strength, investment discipline, share issuance). Market factors such as price momentum and volatility do not enter the number; they are shown separately in the detail view.
What is the price target for Conagra Brands, Inc. (CAG)?
Our model-based price target is the fair value of $15.07 (as of Nov 7, 2026) from 6 valuation models. Cautious scenario $8.12, optimistic scenario $26.83. It is a calculation from audited fundamentals, not an analyst target.
What is the Conagra Brands, Inc. stock forecast for 2026?
Our models put fair value at $15.07, about 1% lower versus a price of $15.24 (fairly valued). Cautious scenario $8.12, optimistic scenario $26.83. The calculation is refreshed regularly with new filings.
What is the revenue of Conagra Brands, Inc. (CAG)?
Conagra Brands, Inc. reported trailing-twelve-month revenue of about $11.2B (latest available figure, as of Nov 7, 2026).
Does Conagra Brands, Inc. pay a dividend?
Conagra Brands, Inc. currently shows a dividend yield of 8.04% relative to its recent price (as of Nov 7, 2026).
How much is the dividend of Conagra Brands, Inc. (CAG) and when is the ex-dividend date?
Conagra Brands, Inc. pays a dividend of $1.23 per share a year, a dividend yield of 8.0%. The last ex-dividend date was Nov 5, 2026. A dividend has been paid every year since at least 1985. Free cash flow covers the dividend 1.67 times. Our assessment: Cash covered. The dividend is fully funded by free cash flow. The payout ratio on earnings is not available for this company.
What growth is priced into Conagra Brands, Inc. (CAG)?
For today's price to be fair in a discounted-cash-flow model, Conagra Brands, Inc. would have to grow free cash flow by +3.9 % per year for five years (discount rate 9.7 %, then slowing evenly to 2 % perpetual growth by year ten). Over the last 5 years revenue grew +0.2 % per year. As of Nov 7, 2026.
What discount rate (WACC) does the fair value of CAG use?
Our models discount Conagra Brands, Inc. at 9.7 %: a base by market capitalisation (mid), country premium for USA. The same rate applies in all 26 models.
What is a reverse DCF?
A reverse DCF turns the usual calculation around. Instead of deriving a value from assumptions, it takes today's price as given and asks: what free-cash-flow growth would a company have to deliver for exactly this price to be fair? The result is not a forecast but the expectation already priced in. For Conagra Brands, Inc. that is +3.9 % per year for five years, then slowing evenly to 2 % by year ten, using the same discount rate (9.7 %) and the same formula as our fair value.
How much growth has Conagra Brands, Inc. (CAG) delivered so far?
Over the past 5 years revenue at Conagra Brands, Inc. grew +0.2 % a year. The price currently implies free-cash-flow growth of +3.9 % per year. Comparing the two shows how much confidence is in the price: if it demands more than has been delivered, the business has to accelerate for the maths to work.
How fast is the sector of Conagra Brands, Inc. (CAG) growing?
The median revenue growth in the sector is +3.6 % a year. That is the yardstick for the growth priced into Conagra Brands, Inc. (+3.9 % per year): it shows whether the expectation is within the usual range or beyond it.
What is the free cash flow yield of Conagra Brands, Inc. (CAG)?
The free-cash-flow yield on the price is 13.41 %: that much free cash flow Conagra Brands, Inc. produces per unit of market value. When it exceeds the discount rate of our models (9.7 %), the business already earns more than its cost of capital demands, and the price needs little additional growth.
What is the intrinsic value of Conagra Brands, Inc. (CAG)?
Intrinsic value and fair value mean the same thing: what the business is worth on its numbers, independent of the share price. For Conagra Brands, Inc. it is $15.07 per share (as of Nov 7, 2026), against a price of $15.24. It is the blended result of 6 valuation models in 3 families (DCF Models, Multiples, Growth DCF).
Is Conagra Brands, Inc. stock overvalued or undervalued in 2026?
As of Nov 7, 2026, CAG trades above its calculated fair value: price $15.24, fair value $15.07, a gap of about −1% (fairly valued). The calculation is refreshed with each new quarterly report, so the verdict can change during the year.
Is fair value the same as the market price of CAG?
No. The price is what the market pays today ($15.24); the fair value is what the company's own numbers justify ($15.07). For Conagra Brands, Inc. the two are $0.1700 per share apart. That gap is exactly why we show both numbers side by side.
How much is Conagra Brands, Inc. worth?
The market values Conagra Brands, Inc. at about $7.3B (market capitalisation, as of Nov 7, 2026). Per share that is $15.24; our models calculate a fair value of $15.07 per share.
What do the bullish and bearish scenarios say about CAG?
Our models span a range for Conagra Brands, Inc.: cautious scenario $8.12, base $15.07, optimistic $26.83 per share (as of Nov 7, 2026, price $15.24). The range comes from different growth and margin assumptions, not from analyst opinions.
What is the PEG ratio of CAG?
The PEG ratio of Conagra Brands, Inc. is 12.07 (P/E divided by earnings growth, as of Nov 7, 2026). That is above 1, so the growth is already paid for in the price.
How solid is the balance sheet of Conagra Brands, Inc. (CAG)?
Balance-sheet figures for Conagra Brands, Inc. (as of Nov 7, 2026): return on equity −24.9%, debt of 1.02 per unit of equity. They feed the Quality Score of 46/100, which measures business quality independently of the share price.
How far is CAG from its 52-week high?
Conagra Brands, Inc. trades at $15.24, about 22% below its 52-week high of $19.53 and 21% above the low of $12.58 (as of Nov 6, 2026). Distance from the high says nothing about value: that is what the fair value of $15.07 is for.
Which stocks are comparable to Conagra Brands, Inc.?
From the same area (Consumer Defensive) we also value Nestlé S.A, Danone S.A, Foshan Haitian Flavouring and Food Company, The Kraft Heinz Company, among others. Each of them has its own fair-value calculation on this site using the same models, so the comparison is like for like.
Is Conagra Brands, Inc. stock attractive at the current price?
The data as of Nov 7, 2026: price $15.24, calculated fair value $15.07 (−1%), Quality Score 46/100, from 6 models. Whether that fits your horizon and risk tolerance is your call. We provide the calculation, not investment advice.
How is the fair value of CAG calculated?
We run Conagra Brands, Inc. through 6 models from 3 families: DCF Models, Multiples, Growth DCF. Every model gets the same audited fundamentals; the fair value of $15.07 builds on their evidence-weighted average, with the spread shown as a cautious and an optimistic scenario.
Is it still worth investing in stocks now?
The global stock market currently sits 13.0% above its aggregate fair value. Conagra Brands, Inc. itself currently trades above fair value. An expensive market is no reason to stay out and no reason to buy everything at once: keep a broad savings plan running, buy single stocks only with money you can do without, and hold part of your money liquid while the market is high. The full picture including sectors is on is it worth investing now.
What is the share price of Conagra Brands, Inc. (CAG)?
The closing price on Nov 6, 2026 was $15.24. Our model-based fair value is $15.07, about 1% lower (fairly valued). We carry closing prices from our data provider, not a live tick.
What should I pay attention to with Conagra Brands, Inc. right now?
The model range is unusually wide ($8.12 to $26.83). The outcome hinges heavily on assumptions, so read the point estimate with caution. The price sits close to our fair value, market and models broadly agree here, little valuation tension.
Key figures of Conagra Brands, Inc.
How large is the market capitalisation of Conagra Brands, Inc. (CAG)?
The market capitalisation of Conagra Brands, Inc. is $7.3B. The stock-market value of the whole company: share price times number of shares. It is what the market asks for the entire business today.
What is the P/E ratio of Conagra Brands, Inc. (CAG) excluding one-off items?
Excluding one-off items, the price-to-earnings ratio of Conagra Brands, Inc. is 8.9 (fiscal year 2026, the reported result was a loss, median at FY-end 18.3 (10 FY)).
What is the P/S ratio of Conagra Brands, Inc. (CAG)?
The price-to-sales ratio of Conagra Brands, Inc. is 0.60 (last twelve months). Price to sales: market value relative to yearly revenue. Useful when profit is thin or distorted.
What are the earnings per share of Conagra Brands, Inc. (CAG)?
Earnings per share at Conagra Brands, Inc. are $−4.12. Earnings per share over the last twelve months: total profit spread across every single share.
What is the dividend yield of Conagra Brands, Inc. (CAG)?
The dividend yield of Conagra Brands, Inc. is 8.0%. Yearly dividend relative to the share price. 3% pays 3 per 100 invested. Below: how much of profit is used for it.
What is the net margin of Conagra Brands, Inc. (CAG)?
The net margin of Conagra Brands, Inc. is −17.0% (last twelve months). How much of every unit of revenue ends up as profit. 10% means 10 cents of profit per dollar of sales.
What is the return on equity of Conagra Brands, Inc. (CAG)?
The return on equity (ROE) of Conagra Brands, Inc. is −24.9% (last twelve months). Profit relative to shareholders' equity, how efficiently the company works with its owners' money.
What is the EBIT return on assets of Conagra Brands, Inc. (CAG)?
On an EBIT basis the return on assets of Conagra Brands, Inc. is 2.4% (avg 5y). Operating profit (EBIT) relative to everything the company owns, as a multi-year average. It describes the business model rather than one good or bad year.
What is the operating margin of Conagra Brands, Inc. (CAG)?
The operating margin of Conagra Brands, Inc. is 11.6% (last twelve months). Profit from the core business (before interest and taxes) relative to revenue.
How fast is revenue growing at Conagra Brands, Inc. (CAG)?
Revenue at Conagra Brands, Inc. is growing −1.4% versus a year earlier (3y avg −2.8%). How much revenue grew versus a year earlier (YoY). The 3-year average next to it puts the single year in context.
How fast are earnings growing at Conagra Brands, Inc. (CAG)?
Earnings per share at Conagra Brands, Inc. are growing +5.9% versus a year earlier. How much earnings per share grew versus a year earlier.
How much net debt does Conagra Brands, Inc. (CAG) carry?
The net debt of Conagra Brands, Inc. is $7.1B (fiscal year 2026, ≈ 7.2 yrs of FCF). Debt minus cash on hand. The note shows how many years of free cash flow could in theory pay it off.
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Some data
Nov 7, 2026