Chubb Ltd (CB) fair value: what the stock is really worth
As of Nov 5, 2026: fair value (intrinsic value) of Chubb Ltd stock $236, price $372, that is 36.5% below the price, quality 66 out of 100. Rating: strongly overvalued. Calculated from audited financials with 6 of our 26 valuation models and 37 quality factors, updated daily.
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Price vs Fair Value
White line = price, green steps = our fair value per fiscal year. As of Nov 5, 2026.
How to read this chart
60‑month range $159.73 – $374.17 · fair‑value band $176.99 – $294.98 · the $371.63 price screens above the $235.99 fair value. Green steps = our fair value per fiscal year (point-in-time, no hindsight). As of Nov 5, 2026.
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Chubb Limited provides insurance and reinsurance products worldwide.
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It operates in six segments: North America Commercial Property and Casualty (P&C) Insurance, North America Personal P&C Insurance, North America Agricultural Insurance, Overseas General Insurance, Global Reinsurance, and Life Insurance.
The company offers property and general liability, workers' compensation, and umbrella; professional and management liability; environmental, health, and international coverages; and claims and risk management products and services, loss control, and engineering and complex claims management.
It also provides homeowners, automobile and collector cars, valuable articles, and personal and excess liability insurance.
In addition, the company offers multiple peril crop insurance and crop-hail insurance for farm, ranch, specialty (P&C), and commercial agriculture products; product and employer liability, business interruption, and specialty risk; property insurance products, including traditional commercial fire coverage, energy industry-related, marine, construction, and other technical coverages; personal accident and supplemental medical coverages, such as accidental death, business/holiday travel, specified disease, disability, medical and hospital indemnity, and income protection; and directors and officers, professional indemnity, cyber, surety, aviation, political risk, and specialty personal lines products.
Further, it provides property catastrophe reinsurance; traditional and specialty P&C reinsurance; and protection and savings products, which includes individual and group term life, dental, critical illness, dementia, hospital cash, credit life, group employee benefits, whole life, universal life, unit linked contracts, endowment plans, and annuities.
The company was formerly known as ACE Limited and changed its name to Chubb Limited in January 2016. Chubb Limited was incorporated in 1985 and is headquartered in Zurich, Switzerland.
Stock analysis
Chubb Ltd (CB) currently trades at $371.63, while our model-based Fair Value estimate is $235.99, 36% below the price, so the stock looks overvalued today.
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Valuation
Bull case: the Economic Profit group reads highest at a median of $260.03 per share, and 0 of the 6 models we run sit above the $371.63 price.
Bear case: the Asset-Based group reads lowest at $59.61, and 6 of the 6 models stay below the price. Data coverage for this calculation is high.
Scenario range: $176.99 (bear) to $294.98 (bull), the price of $371.63 sits above it. Bear and bull are the same models on cautious and optimistic assumptions, a range, not a price target.
Quality & growth
The Quality Score stands at 66/100 (solid quality), in the Financial Services sector.
Healthy Growth: Revenue growth appears healthy and is supported by profitability and cash-flow quality.
Chubb Ltd reported revenue of $59.8B in FY2025 versus $40.8B in FY2021, a compound +10.0%/yr. Reported net income was $10.3B in FY2025, compounding +4.9%/yr from FY2021.
Key figures
Market cap $146B Large · P/E ratio 13.0 · P/S ratio 2.36 · EPS (TTM) $28.53 · Dividend yield 1.1% · Net margin 18.1% · Return on equity 14.3% · Return on assets (EBIT) 4.3%.
Competitive moat
Our AI-assisted moat analysis scores the competitive advantage at 71 out of 100 (medium confidence).
What moves the price
The share trades about 1% below its 52-week high and 33% above its 52-week low, currently above its 200-day average.
For context, the median of 10 Financial Services peers we cover trades at −23% fair-value upside, at −36%, CB screens richer than that median.
Fair Value models
Bear$176.99Fair Value $235.99Bull$294.98
Price $371.63 · Downside -36.5%
Model ⓘEach model values the company its own way (discounted cash flow, earnings, assets, dividends). The fair value above starts from their evidence-weighted blend, not from a single model. In cyclical trough or peak years, after dilution or a stock split it is adjusted afterwards, so it can sit above or below the models. Based on fiscal year 2025 figures (about 10 months old). Earnings retained since then ($20.85 per share) are deliberately not added.Bear ⓘBear = the cautious scenario: the same model computed with conservative anchors (lower growth, margins and valuation multiples). Together with Bull it frames a plausible valuation range, not a price target.BaseBull ⓘBull = the optimistic scenario: the same model computed with favourable anchors (higher growth, margins and valuation multiples). Together with Bear it frames a plausible valuation range, not a price target. If a model's bull case is above four times its base value, the table shows that limit with a > sign (like the overall Bull above): beyond it no assumption holds.Coverage ⓘCoverage = how well-backed THIS model's estimate is for this stock (0–100): how complete and reliable its input data are, and how well the model fits the company. The final Fair Value is an evidence-weighted blend, so better-evidenced models count more. Green ≥70, amber 50–69, grey below 50.
In the last 6 months, 7 officers or directors sold shares worth $23.7M and none bought.
SaleEvan G GreenbergChairman & CEO3× since Feb 5, 2026: 43,874 shares, avg. $341.74$15.0MOct 29, 2026
SaleTimothy Alan BoroughsExecutive Vice President*3× since Nov 24, 2025: 52,843 shares, avg. $330.60$17.5MOct 26, 2026
SaleMichael P ConnorsDirector5,500 shares at $345.00$1.9MAug 21, 2026
SaleJoseph F WaylandExecutive Vice President and*3× since Nov 13, 2025: 21,977 shares, avg. $336.87$7.4MJul 28, 2026
SaleJuan Luis OrtegaExecutive Vice President*2× since Dec 2, 2025: 4,750 shares, avg. $316.90$1.5MJun 8, 2026
SaleJohn W KeoghPresident &COO23,000 shares at $321.51$7.4MMay 27, 2026
SaleMichael G AtiehDirector578 shares at $329.53$190,468May 21, 2026
SaleOlivier SteimerDirector2,000 shares at $329.30$658,600Mar 19, 2026
SaleGeorge F. OhsiekChief Accounting Officer2× since Feb 12, 2026: 5,910 shares, avg. $325.40$1.9MMar 6, 2026
SaleBryce L. JohnsSenior Vice President,*1,500 shares at $336.62$504,930Mar 4, 2026
Plus 1 more entries from the last 12 months.
Plus 27 other filings such as grants, option exercises or tax withholding. They are not market purchases or sales.
Sales are often planned (taxes, diversification, 10b5-1 plans). Purchases with their own money are seen as the stronger sign. For information only: not part of the quality score or Fair Value.
Growth Quality ⓘGrowth is valuable only when reinvestment earns attractive returns (Aswath Damodaran): sustainable growth depends on return on capital, reinvestment and efficiency. Basis: total company revenue over the periods shown on the cards (3Y/5Y/all years), not per share, so a merger can show up as a growth jump; per-share earnings growth is in the value-creation card.92/100
Revenue growth appears healthy and is supported by profitability and cash-flow quality.
Revenue growth 1 year
+6.5%
Revenue growth 3 years ⓘMeasures the company's TOTAL revenue from reported annual statements: compound average growth per year (CAGR) from the fiscal year 3, 5 or N years back to the most recent comparable fiscal year. Not per share: buybacks do not change this number, and a merger can appear as a growth jump. Per-share growth (which does include buybacks) is in the value-creation card.
+11.6%
Revenue growth 5 years ⓘMeasures the company's TOTAL revenue from reported annual statements: compound average growth per year (CAGR) from the fiscal year 3, 5 or N years back to the most recent comparable fiscal year. Not per share: buybacks do not change this number, and a merger can appear as a growth jump. Per-share growth (which does include buybacks) is in the value-creation card.
+10.6%
Start year 2020 (pandemic). Over 10 years: +12.2% a year
Revenue growth 33 years ⓘMeasures the company's TOTAL revenue from reported annual statements: compound average growth per year (CAGR) from the fiscal year 3, 5 or N years back to the most recent comparable fiscal year. Not per share: buybacks do not change this number, and a merger can appear as a growth jump. Per-share growth (which does include buybacks) is in the value-creation card.
+15.5%
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What shareholders gained per year (last 5 years) ⓘWhat the business itself delivers per year: earnings growth per share plus the dividend yield. This is what you get IF the market keeps valuing the stock the same way: it contains no assumption about the market changing its mind. Computed per share, so buybacks count and a merger does not pass as growth. For a company that pays no dividend it is pure earnings growth per share. Period: earnings growth per share as CAGR over the last 5 reported fiscal years (annual statements), plus the current dividend yield. The start value is the median of the three years around the start, so a single crisis year (a pandemic or a write-down) does not distort the rate. Basis: adjusted.
≈ +46.2%
Earnings growth per share plus dividend.
Earnings per share, growth per year≈ +45.1%
Dividend (yield on the price)1.1%
Pace: 5 vs 10 years ⓘTwo data points, not a trend model: earnings growth per share over the last 5 fiscal years against the last 10. Labelled "steady" when both rates are within 3 percentage points of each other, otherwise picking up or flattening. Shown only when ten years of history exist.21.8% vs 11.7%, picking up
Profit margin 2020 to 2025 ⓘOperating margin then vs now, from reported annual statements. A falling margin after a boom year is the classic peak-earnings signal: the growth rate then leans on an inflated base.12% → 22%
⚠ Base effect: the rate starts in the earnings trough around 2020 (starting value 3.17 per share, median 10.5 in 2015 to 2018). It measures the recovery from the trough, not lasting growth.
Growth Forecast
Little optimism in the price
The price assumes less growth than the company has delivered so far and less than analysts expect.
What the price assumes ⓘThis turns our valuation around: instead of asking what the share is worth, it asks what growth the current price requires. It uses the cash the company keeps after all spending (free cash flow), the same discount rate as our models, five years of growth, then slowing evenly to 2 % a year by year ten. Compared with the analysts' sales forecasts extended to the same five years (at least three analysts, for context only, it does not enter the Fair Value): within 3 percentage points counts as "in line" (amber), below that little optimism (green), above that a lot of optimism (red).
−10.1%
The company could shrink this much every year for the next five years and today's price would still be justified.
What forecasts expect ⓘAnalysts publish sales forecasts for the next two fiscal years. For the years after that, growth slows evenly to 2 % a year by year ten (2 % is the long-run rate our models use). Projected years are marked as such.
−1.0%
Yearly sales growth analysts expect, extended to five years.
After inflation (USA: IMF forecast 2.4% a year to 2030, 3.1% from 2016 to 2025) that is about −12.1% a year for the price and −3.3% for the forecasts.
News mood ⓘNews mood, the average tone of recent news (99 articles), rated against how stocks are usually covered. 🚀 Hype = unusually upbeat · 🙂 Positive = above average · 😐 Neutral = typical · 🙁 Negative = below average · 😨 Very negative = unusually downbeat. It reflects the tone of coverage, not our valuation.Positive
Recent news coverage is more positive than average.
AI conclusion: Scale advantages and underwriting discipline support Chubb's P&C operations, yet limited differentiation in innovation and human capital signals restricts its overall moat.
Main risk: Repeated lawsuits alleging bad-faith handling of institutional liability claims could raise legal costs, prompt regulatory fines and constrain underwriting in affected lines.
Bull case: Chubb could leverage its scale and disciplined underwriting to partner selectively with MGAs while using its digital platforms to retain control over complex risks.
Bear case: If MGA growth accelerates and lawsuits mount, Chubb might see volumes shift to lower-cost intermediaries and face higher compliance costs that erode its underwriting edge.
Chubb's broad geographic reach and consistent underwriting discipline continue to support solid premium growth and margins even as commercial property pricing softens in parts of the market. The company is also expanding its life offerings through a new Bermuda platform targeting private wealth clients. Our models currently see the stock as overvalued. Will this mix of discipline and diversification deliver steadier long-term results than peers chasing volume, or will it leave growth opportunities on the table?
Price, fair value, quality and upside side by side.
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Peer GroupⓘHow this stock ranks against its industry: the green marker is this stock, the band is the typical 25–75% peer range, and the tick is the median.Insurance - Property & Casualty · 100 stocks
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Cite: Fair Value Calculator (2026). "Chubb Ltd Fair Value". https://www.fairvalue-calculator.com/stock/CB
Frequently asked questions
Is Chubb Ltd (CB) overvalued or undervalued?
As of Nov 5, 2026, our model estimates a fair value of $235.99 versus a price of $371.63, about 36% lower (overvalued).
What is the fair value of CB?
Our model-based fair value for Chubb Ltd is $235.99 (as of Nov 5, 2026), built from audited fundamentals. The current price: $371.63.
What is the quality score of CB?
Chubb Ltd has a Quality Score of 66/100. It measures business quality (profitability, growth, cash flow, balance-sheet strength, investment discipline, share issuance). Market factors such as price momentum and volatility do not enter the number; they are shown separately in the detail view.
What is the price target for Chubb Ltd (CB)?
Our model-based price target is the fair value of $235.99 (as of Nov 5, 2026) from 6 valuation models. Cautious scenario $176.99, optimistic scenario $294.98. It is a calculation from audited fundamentals, not an analyst target.
What is the Chubb Ltd stock forecast for 2026?
Our models put fair value at $235.99, about 36% lower versus a price of $371.63 (overvalued). Cautious scenario $176.99, optimistic scenario $294.98. The calculation is refreshed regularly with new filings.
What is the revenue of Chubb Ltd (CB)?
Chubb Ltd reported trailing-twelve-month revenue of about $62.0B (latest available figure, as of Nov 5, 2026).
Does Chubb Ltd pay a dividend?
Chubb Ltd currently shows a dividend yield of 1.07% relative to its recent price (as of Nov 5, 2026).
What growth is priced into Chubb Ltd (CB)?
For today's price to be fair in a discounted-cash-flow model, Chubb Ltd would have to grow free cash flow by -10.1 % per year for five years (discount rate 8.1 %, then slowing evenly to 2 % perpetual growth by year ten). Over the last 5 years revenue grew +10.6 % per year. As of Nov 5, 2026.
What discount rate (WACC) does the fair value of CB use?
Our models discount Chubb Ltd at 8.1 %: a base by market capitalisation (large), damped by beta 0.37, country premium for USA. The same rate applies in all 26 models.
What is a reverse DCF?
A reverse DCF turns the usual calculation around. Instead of deriving a value from assumptions, it takes today's price as given and asks: what free-cash-flow growth would a company have to deliver for exactly this price to be fair? The result is not a forecast but the expectation already priced in. For Chubb Ltd that is -10.1 % per year a year over ten years, using the same discount rate (8.1 %) and the same formula as our fair value.
How much growth has Chubb Ltd (CB) delivered so far?
Over the past 5 years revenue at Chubb Ltd grew +10.6 % a year. The price currently implies -10.1 % per year free-cash-flow growth a year. Comparing the two shows how much confidence is in the price: if it demands more than has been delivered, the business has to accelerate for the maths to work.
How fast is the sector of Chubb Ltd (CB) growing?
The median revenue growth in the sector is +9.4 % a year. That is the yardstick for the growth priced into Chubb Ltd (-10.1 % per year a year): it shows whether the expectation is within the usual range or beyond it.
What is the free cash flow yield of Chubb Ltd (CB)?
The free-cash-flow yield on the price is 9.95 %: that much free cash flow Chubb Ltd produces per unit of market value. When it exceeds the discount rate of our models (8.1 %), the business already earns more than its cost of capital demands, and the price needs little additional growth.
What is the intrinsic value of Chubb Ltd (CB)?
Intrinsic value and fair value mean the same thing: what the business is worth on its numbers, independent of the share price. For Chubb Ltd it is $235.99 per share (as of Nov 5, 2026), against a price of $371.63. It is the blended result of 6 valuation models (cash flow, earnings, asset, dividend).
Is Chubb Ltd stock overvalued or undervalued in 2026?
As of Nov 5, 2026, CB trades above its calculated fair value: price $371.63, fair value $235.99, a gap of about −36% (overvalued). The calculation is refreshed with each new quarterly report, so the verdict can change during the year.
Is fair value the same as the market price of CB?
No. The price is what the market pays today ($371.63); the fair value is what the company's own numbers justify ($235.99). For Chubb Ltd the two are $135.64 per share apart. That gap is exactly why we show both numbers side by side.
How much is Chubb Ltd worth?
The market values Chubb Ltd at about $146B (market capitalisation, as of Nov 5, 2026). Per share that is $371.63; our models calculate a fair value of $235.99 per share.
What do the bullish and bearish scenarios say about CB?
Our models span a range for Chubb Ltd: cautious scenario $176.99, base $235.99, optimistic $294.98 per share (as of Nov 5, 2026, price $371.63). The range comes from different growth and margin assumptions, not from analyst opinions.
What is the P/E ratio of CB?
Chubb Ltd trades at a price-to-earnings ratio of 13.0 (as of Nov 5, 2026). A P/E on its own says little: it compares the price with ONE year of profit, while our fair value of $235.99 is built from several models across several years. Excluding one-off items of fiscal year 2025 it is 18.2 (reported for FY2025: 14.3). Median P/E at fiscal year-end, 10 fiscal years (2016 to 2025), reported earnings, 9 of the years ex one-offs: 15.1. Other multiples: PEG 2.7, P/B 2.0, P/S 2.4, EV/EBITDA 11.3.
What is the PEG ratio of CB?
The PEG ratio of Chubb Ltd is 2.68 (P/E divided by earnings growth, as of Nov 5, 2026). That is above 1, so the growth is already paid for in the price.
How solid is the balance sheet of Chubb Ltd (CB)?
Balance-sheet figures for Chubb Ltd (as of Nov 5, 2026): return on equity 14.3%, debt of 0.21 per unit of equity. They feed the Quality Score of 66/100, which measures business quality independently of the share price.
How far is CB from its 52-week high?
Chubb Ltd trades at $371.63, about 1% below its 52-week high of $374.17 and 33% above the low of $279.60 (as of Nov 5, 2026). Distance from the high says nothing about value: that is what the fair value of $235.99 is for.
Which stocks are comparable to Chubb Ltd?
From the same area (Financial Services) we also value The Progressive Corporation, The Travelers Companies, Inc, The Allstate Corporation, The People's Insurance Company, among others. Each of them has its own fair-value calculation on this site using the same models, so the comparison is like for like.
Is Chubb Ltd stock attractive at the current price?
The data as of Nov 5, 2026: price $371.63, calculated fair value $235.99 (−36%), Quality Score 66/100, from 6 models. Whether that fits your horizon and risk tolerance is your call. We provide the calculation, not investment advice.
How is the fair value of CB calculated?
We run Chubb Ltd through 6 models from four families: discounted cash flow, earnings models, asset and balance-sheet models, and dividend models. Every model gets the same audited fundamentals; the result is the weighted average of $235.99, with the spread shown as a cautious and an optimistic scenario.
Is it still worth investing in stocks now?
The global stock market currently sits 15.5% above its aggregate fair value. Chubb Ltd itself currently trades above fair value. An expensive market is no reason to stay out and no reason to buy everything at once: keep a broad savings plan running, buy single stocks only with money you can do without, and hold part of your money liquid while the market is high. The full picture including sectors is on is it worth investing now.
What is the share price of Chubb Ltd (CB)?
The closing price on Nov 5, 2026 was $371.63. Our model-based fair value is $235.99, about 36% lower (overvalued). We carry closing prices from our data provider, not a live tick.
What should I pay attention to with Chubb Ltd right now?
The price sits above even our optimistic bull case ($294.98). The favourable scenario is already priced in. Solid but not exceptional quality (66/100) and above fair value, neither a clear bargain nor a standout compounder. For a financial, book-value and earnings-based methods matter more than a cash-flow DCF, which fits banks and insurers poorly.
Where does the earnings growth of Chubb Ltd (CB) come from?
Earnings per share at Chubb Ltd grew +11.7 % a year from 2014 to 2025. Broken into its drivers: revenue per share +9.2 %, EBIT margin +2.2 %, tax rate +0.3 %, residual (interest, one-offs) −0.2 %. The four rates multiply to the earnings growth rate, they do not add up. Start and end are three-year averages so a single exceptional year does not distort the result.
Key figures of Chubb Ltd
How large is the market capitalisation of Chubb Ltd (CB)?
The market capitalisation of Chubb Ltd is $146B. The stock-market value of the whole company: share price times number of shares. It is what the market asks for the entire business today.
What is the P/S ratio of Chubb Ltd (CB)?
The price-to-sales ratio of Chubb Ltd is 2.36 (last twelve months). Price to sales: market value relative to yearly revenue. Useful when profit is thin or distorted.
What are the earnings per share of Chubb Ltd (CB)?
Earnings per share at Chubb Ltd are $28.53 (price ÷ EPS = P/E 13.0). Earnings per share over the last twelve months: total profit spread across every single share.
What is the dividend yield of Chubb Ltd (CB)?
The dividend yield of Chubb Ltd is 1.1% (payout 17.8%, on adjusted earnings, reported 14.0%). Yearly dividend relative to the share price. 3% pays 3 per 100 invested. Below: how much of profit is used for it.
What is the net margin of Chubb Ltd (CB)?
The net margin of Chubb Ltd is 18.1% (last twelve months). How much of every unit of revenue ends up as profit. 10% means 10 cents of profit per dollar of sales.
What is the return on equity of Chubb Ltd (CB)?
The return on equity (ROE) of Chubb Ltd is 14.3% (last twelve months). Profit relative to shareholders' equity, how efficiently the company works with its owners' money.
What is the EBIT return on assets of Chubb Ltd (CB)?
On an EBIT basis the return on assets of Chubb Ltd is 4.3% (avg 5y). Operating profit (EBIT) relative to everything the company owns, as a multi-year average. It describes the business model rather than one good or bad year.
What is the operating margin of Chubb Ltd (CB)?
The operating margin of Chubb Ltd is 21.4% (last twelve months). Profit from the core business (before interest and taxes) relative to revenue.
How fast is revenue growing at Chubb Ltd (CB)?
Revenue at Chubb Ltd is growing +1.3% versus a year earlier (3y avg +11.6%). How much revenue grew versus a year earlier (YoY). The 3-year average next to it puts the single year in context.
How fast are earnings growing at Chubb Ltd (CB)?
Earnings per share at Chubb Ltd are growing +4.4% versus a year earlier. How much earnings per share grew versus a year earlier.
How much net debt does Chubb Ltd (CB) carry?
The net debt of Chubb Ltd is $15.4B (fiscal year 2025, ≈ 1.1 yrs of FCF). Debt minus cash on hand. The note shows how many years of free cash flow could in theory pay it off.
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Broad data
Nov 5, 2026